Range break below 0.5650, lower highs and lower lows since Monday's high.
NZDUSD held a 0.5650–0.5687 range from Thursday into Monday, then broke the former floor into Tuesday's London-NY transition as the USD bid shrugged off the JOLTS miss, extending to a week low of 0.5626 during NY hours. The late-NY bounce stalled at the 0.5647 bounce high, just under the broken floor and short of the 38.2% retrace of the Mon-Tue drop from the 0.5687 week high. Price sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 43, and each rally since Monday has printed a lower high along the descending trendline.
Support: 0.5626, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56466, 0.5650, 0.56874
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.5650 former floor would neutralise the range break
Failure to hold the 0.5626 week low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5600 range floor
A break of the lower-highs trendline near 0.5643 would mark the first shift in this week's structure
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) on Wednesday could materially shift this read
NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC Wednesday adds late-session event risk
Monday's NY-session push to the 0.5687 week high faded. Tuesday printed successive lower highs as London broke the 0.5650 broken floor, and NY hours extended the drop to a 0.5626 week low, with the USD bid on Fed-hike bets and 10Y yields above 5.2% despite the JOLTS miss. The late bounce stalled near 0.5647, short of the 38.2% retracement of Tuesday's drop and capped around the ema20 at 0.5645. Price is now holding just under that ema20 and the underside of the old floor, with RSI(14) recovering to the low 40s.
Support: 0.5626, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5645, 0.5650, 0.5687
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.5650 broken floor and the Tuesday lower-highs trendline would neutralise the range break
Failure to hold the 0.5626 week low exposes the 0.5600 psych level
US ADP and core PCE (Wed 12:15/12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Rejection from the ema20 at 0.5645 keeps the lower-high sequence intact toward the 0.5687 week high reference
The 0.5650 floor held Thursday through Monday, but it gave way in Tuesday's London session. The drop extended into NY hours to a 0.5626 low as the USD stayed bid on Hormuz tension and hawkish Fed repricing, shrugging off the JOLTS miss. The late-NY bounce from RSI(14) near 23 stalled around 0.5646, where the ema20 meets the lower highs line off Monday's 0.5687 week high, roughly a 38.2% retrace of Tuesday's drop; price holds below both EMAs.
Support: 0.5626, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5646, 0.5650, 0.5687
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.5650 broken floor puts price back inside the prior range and undercuts the breakdown read
Failure to hold the 0.5626 tuesday low exposes the 0.5600 april floor cited as the range base
H1 close above the lower highs line and the ema20 near 0.5646 breaks Tuesday's sequence of lower highs; the 0.5687 week high is the next upper reference
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and core PCE (12:30 UTC) on Wed Sep 30 could materially shift this read, alongside month- and quarter-end flows
0.5650 floor broken on Tuesday; new week low, bounce capped below EMA(20).
The 0.5650 old floor held through Thursday, Friday and Monday, then gave way on Tuesday. The NY session drove the slide to a week low at 0.5626 as a bid USD and Hormuz risk outweighed the JOLTS miss. Highs have stepped lower since Monday's 0.5687 week high, and the late-session bounce stalled just under EMA(20) near 0.5647, with price below both EMAs and RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 0.5626, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5647, 0.5650, 0.56874
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.5650 old floor, which also marks the lower-highs trendline and the 38.2% of the week high-low fib, would turn Tuesday's break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5626 week low exposes the 0.5600 range floor in place since April
US ADP and core PCE Wed 12:15–12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
A sustained hold above EMA(20) near 0.5647 would break the lower-highs sequence from the 0.5687 week high
Lower highs since Monday's 0.5687 high; 0.5650 floor broken.
Monday's NY-session spike to 0.5687 marked the week high, and each rally since has capped lower. Tuesday's slide broke the 0.5650 floor and extended in NY hours to a 0.5626 week low, as Hormuz risk and Fed-hike pricing kept the USD bid. The late bounce has reclaimed the 0.5642 prior low and pushed into the ema20 near 0.5647, with RSI(14) recovering to ~46. The broken floor at 0.5650 sits directly overhead and lines up with the 38.2% fib of the week decline.
Support: 0.5642, 0.5626, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5647, 0.5650, 0.5660
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.5650 broken floor and the lower highs trendline shifts the read toward a deeper retrace to the 0.5660 lower high
Rejection at the ema20/0.5650 zone and loss of the 0.5642 prior low exposes the 0.5626 week low, then the 0.5600 range floor
Waller at 19:00 UTC today and Wednesday's ADP/core PCE (12:15–12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
18:04 UTC
Downtrend, fresh leg lower · RSI 34 · price 0.56335
Range break below 0.5650, lower highs since Monday.
The 0.5650 range floor held for four sessions, then gave way in Tuesday's London session. NY hours took out the 0.5642 London low and extended to a 0.5626 session low as 2004-high US yields kept the dollar bid. Highs have stepped lower since Monday's 0.5687 week high, price is below EMA(20) near 0.5647, and RSI(14) sits around 34. The 38.2% fib of the sell-off lines up with the range floor.
Support: 0.5626, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5642, 0.5650, 0.5687
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 0.5650 range floor, where the 38.2% fib sits, would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5626 session low exposes the 0.5600 round number
A rejection at the 0.5642 London low, with the lower highs trendline intact, would confirm a retest from below
Fed's Williams and Waller tonight, then ADP and core PCE (f/c 3.3%) at 12:15/12:30 UTC tomorrow, could materially shift this read
17:05 UTC
Downtrend, extending in NY · RSI 26 · price 0.56266
Lower highs since Monday; 0.5650 floor broken.
NZDUSD gave way below the 0.5650 former floor that had held since Wednesday. The NY session extended the slide to a 0.5626 week low as 5.2%+ US yields kept the USD bid despite the JOLTS miss. Price sits below EMA(20) near 0.5648, with lower highs at 0.5677 and the 0.5660 lower high stepping down from Monday's 0.5687 week high; RSI(14) near 26 is oversold, and the 0.5650 former floor lines up with the 38.2% fib of the week's drop.
Support: 0.5626, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5650, 0.5660, 0.5687
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.5650 former floor and EMA(20) would recast the break as a false break
A close above the 0.5660 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline
Acceptance below the 0.5626 week low keeps the 0.5600 range floor, in place since April, in view
Williams and Waller Fedspeak later today, then ADP and Core PCE Wed 12:15–12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
A fresh low with RSI failing to confirm would flag rsi divergence (bullish) near the week low
16:03 UTC
Downtrend, fresh leg lower · RSI 30 · price 0.56323
Range break below 0.5650 with lower highs through Tuesday.
The 0.5650–0.5687 range that held since Thursday gave way on Tuesday. A late-Asia probe to 0.5644 was followed by sustained closes below the 0.5650 range floor during London, and NY extended the move to a 0.5628 session low as the USD held its bid on Fed hike pricing and 5.25% yields despite soft JOLTS and confidence data. Tuesday's price action has printed a clean sequence of lower highs from the 0.5677 Tuesday high. Price sits below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 30 and not yet oversold.
Support: 0.5628, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5642, 0.5650, 0.5677
What it said to watch
The 0.5642 prior low, a double-tap pivot in London, is now the first cap and an area to watch for rejection or reclaim
An H1 close back above the 0.5650 range floor would flag a false break of the range
Failure to hold the 0.5628 session low exposes the 0.5600 round number, the range floor cited since April
A break of the lower highs trendline and a move above the 0.5677 Tuesday high would negate the descending sequence
Fedspeak from Williams (18:00Z) and Waller (19:00Z), then ADP, GDP and PCE on Wednesday from 12:15Z, could materially shift this read
15:03 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lows into NY session · RSI 31 · price 0.56371
0.5650–0.5687 range broken lower Tuesday, lower highs since Monday.
The 0.5650 broken floor contained every dip from Thursday through Monday's open. It gave way in Tuesday's London session, and the Tuesday selloff from Monday's 0.5687 week high has carved successive lower highs. A London bounce stalled at the 0.5660 lower high, and NY hours printed a new day low near 0.5636. The USD bid from the Treasury selloff and US-Iran tensions overrode the soft JOLTS miss, leaving price below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 0.56363, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5650, 0.5660, 0.56874
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.5650 broken floor would flag a false break of the range
Close above the 0.5660 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline sequence
Acceptance below the 0.5636 day low exposes the 0.5600 range floor
Fed speakers from 15:00 UTC today, then Wed ADP (12:15 UTC) and PCE/GDP (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Monday NY peak; 0.5650 floor broken.
The 0.5650 floor held for four sessions, then gave way late in Tuesday's Asia session. London extended the drop to a 0.5642 week low, with a rates- and Hormuz-bid USD overriding RBNZ hike pricing. Since Monday's NY spike to the 0.5687 week high, the pair has printed lower highs at 0.5677 and 0.5660. The 0.5660 lower high came as a rejection at the 38.2% retrace during the London-NY transition. Price sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 40, and the broken floor at 0.5650 is now capping.
Support: 0.5642, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5650, 0.5660, 0.5687
What it said to watch
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, then Williams (18:00) and Waller (19:00) Fedspeak, could materially shift this read
H1 close back above the 0.5650 broken floor would turn the break into a false break
Close above the 0.5660 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and the trendline
Failure to hold the 0.5642 week low exposes the 0.5600 range floor
13:05 UTC
Downtrend, range floor giving way · RSI 40 · price 0.56492
Lower highs since Monday's 0.5687 spike, 0.5650 floor breached.
The 0.5650–0.5687 band that held since Thursday gave way during the London session today, printing a week low at 0.5642 as the hawkish-Fed, oil-bid USD kept pressure on the kiwi. Monday's NY-session spike to the 0.5687 week high faded fully, and each Tuesday bounce has stalled lower, most recently a rejection at 0.5660 (fib 38.2 of the Mon-Tue drop) into the London-NY transition. Price sits below both EMAs and under the 0.5655 weekly open, with RSI(14) near 40 and no bullish divergence at the lows.
Support: 0.5642, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5655, 0.5660, 0.5687
What it said to watch
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 GMT plus Fedspeak into Waller could materially shift this read
H1 close back above 0.5660 fib 38.2 breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the range
Acceptance below the 0.5642 week low exposes the 0.5600 range floor
Reclaim of the 0.5655 weekly open and EMA20 would mark the break lower as a false break
US ADP Wed 12:15 GMT is the next high-impact USD risk
12:04 UTC
Range-bound under pressure, lower highs since Monday · RSI 43 · price 0.56556
0.5650–0.5687 range since Thursday; Tuesday false break below the floor, price back at the weekly open.
After Wednesday's PMI-driven drop, NZDUSD has held a 0.5650–0.5687 band since Thursday as the USD stayed bid on Fed hike repricing and elevated oil. Tuesday's London session pushed through the 0.5650 floor to a 0.5642 week low, then reclaimed it within the hour. Price is back at the weekly open, so the break has failed so far. Monday's week high and Tuesday's lower high form a descending lower-highs line, and price sits below EMA(20) at 0.5658, which overlaps the 38.2% retracement of the Mon-Tue drop, with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 0.56546, 0.5650, 0.56416
Resistance: 0.56577, 0.56769, 0.56874
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the 0.5650 floor would turn Tuesday's false break into a lower-low, with the week low at 0.5642 and then the 0.5600 range base exposed
Recovery above ema20 and through the lower high at 0.5677 would restore the full range read toward the 0.5687 week high
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC plus Fedspeak into 19:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Wednesday's ADP (12:15 UTC) and GDP (12:30 UTC) are the next scheduled USD risk for the range
Monday's NY-session push to the 0.5687 Monday high on the US-China truce headlines faded. The pair has since printed a lower day high at 0.5677 and slid from the Asia session into London hours today, breaking last week's 0.5650 range floor to a 0.5642 day low. The last completed hour reclaimed the range floor and the weekly open at 0.5655, which leaves a possible false break. Price is still below EMA(20) near 0.5660 with RSI(14) around 45, as a USD bid on 5.2%+ 10Y yields keeps rebounds shallow.
Support: 0.56546, 0.5650, 0.56416
Resistance: 0.5660, 0.56769, 0.56874
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 0.5650 range floor turns the false break into a confirmed range break, with 0.5600 the next reference
Reclaiming EMA(20) near 0.5660 and the 50% fib at 0.5665 would put the 0.5677 day high and the lower-highs trendline back in play
Fedspeak (Musalem 11:30, Waller 19:00 UTC) and US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
A break of the 0.5642 day low sets a fresh three-month low below the weekly open
10:03 UTC
Downtrend, fresh leg lower · RSI 31 · price 0.5643
Range break below 0.5650 floor, lower high at 0.5677.
The 0.5650 broken floor, which held from Thursday through Monday's Asian dip, gave way into the London session today, printing a 0.5642 session low as a firm USD on US-Iran tensions and the RBA-driven AUD/NZD bid weighed on the kiwi. Monday's NY-session rally to the 0.5687 week high on the US-China truce extension met rejection. Overnight, the 0.5677 lower high then rolled over below the weekly open, leaving price under EMA(20) near 0.5657. RSI(14) near 31 is approaching oversold, with no bullish divergence against the prior lows.
Support: 0.5642, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5650, 0.5655, 0.5687
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.5655 weekly open negates the range break
Sustained trade below the 0.5642 session low exposes the 0.5600 round number
Retest of the 0.5650 broken floor from below, for acceptance or rejection
Lower-highs trendline from the week high caps rallies near the 38.2–50% fib zone of the Monday-Tuesday drop (0.5659–0.5665)
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC and a heavy Fedspeak slate today could materially shift this read, with ADP due Wed
09:04 UTC
Downtrend, pressing range floor · RSI 36 · price 0.56512
Lower highs since Wednesday; 0.5650–0.5687 range with a downside probe.
The decline since Wednesday's US PMI beat has printed lower highs: Monday's NY-session bounce on the US-China truce stalled at the 0.5687 week high, and Tuesday's Asia push faded at 0.5677. The RBA hike and the AUD/NZD bid during Asia hours drove a probe through the 0.5650 range floor to 0.5644, but H1 closes are holding just above it, below the weekly open and the EMA(20) near 0.5660. RSI(14) near 36 is soft but not oversold, consistent with a grind lower rather than a flush.
Support: 0.5650, 0.56441, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56546, 0.5660, 0.56874
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5644 Tuesday low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 0.5600 round number
Reclaim of the weekly open and EMA20 near 0.5660 puts price back inside the range and eases pressure on the floor
A break above the lower-highs line near 0.5677 would challenge the 0.5687 week high
Musalem 11:30 UTC, JOLTS 14:00 UTC and Waller 19:00 UTC could materially shift this read
08:03 UTC
Downtrend, pressing range floor · RSI 37 · price 0.56533
Lower highs into a 0.5650-0.5687 range; floor pierced intraday.
NZDUSD has ranged between the 0.5650 range floor and the 0.5687 range top since Wednesday's NY-session drop on strong US flash PMIs. Highs keep stepping lower from the 0.5705 window high, and Monday's NY spike stalled below the 61.8% retracement of the Wednesday-to-Tuesday drop. A late-Asia dip printed a 0.5644 tue low, but hourly closes have held just back above the floor. Price sits below the ema20 (~0.5660) with RSI(14) near 37 and the tue high at 0.5677 capping the Asia rebound, as high US yields keep the USD firm.
Support: 0.5650, 0.56441, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5660, 0.56769, 0.56874
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5644 tue low confirms a lower low and a break of the range floor, exposing the 0.5600 round number
Recovery above the ema20 at 0.5660 and the 0.5677 tue high would put the false break back in play within the range
H1 close above the 0.5687 range top clears the lower-highs trendline from Wednesday
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC plus Fedspeak through the NY session could materially shift this read
07:03 UTC
Downtrend stalled into a low-level range · RSI 36 · price 0.56525
Range 0.5650–0.5687 after Wednesday's impulse lower; highs stepping down since Monday.
Wednesday's NY-session drop on the strong US flash PMIs took NZDUSD from 0.5706 to a 0.5650 range floor. That floor has held on a closing basis through Thursday, Friday and Monday, while rebounds stalled around the 61.8% retracement of the Wednesday drop and topped at the 0.5687 Monday high. Highs have stepped lower since, from 0.5687 to a 0.5677 lower high, and today's post-RBA dip in the Asia session briefly broke to a 0.5644 Tuesday low before closing back above the floor, with price below the ema20 near 0.5661 and RSI(14) in the mid-30s.
Support: 0.5650, 0.56441
Resistance: 0.5661, 0.56769, 0.56874
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5644 Tuesday low converts the false break into a range-floor break and opens the path toward 0.5600
Recovery above the ema20 and the 0.5677 lower high trendline would neutralise the stepping-down highs
Break above the 0.5687 Monday high takes price back through the 61.8% retracement of the Wednesday drop
Fedspeak from Musalem (11:30 UTC), JOLTS and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC), and the afternoon Fed speakers could materially shift this read
06:03 UTC
Downtrend stalled into a tight range · RSI 38 · price 0.56545
0.5650–0.5687 range after Wednesday's drop, lower highs since Monday.
Since Wednesday's sell-off from 0.5707, triggered in the NY session by hot US flash PMIs, price has rotated in a 0.5650–0.5687 band. The week high at 0.5687 stalled near the 61.8% retracement of that drop, and today's Asia high at 0.5677 printed a lower high. The RBA hike lifted AUD/NZD during the Asia session, and NZD/USD swept to a fresh week low at 0.5644 before closing back above the 0.5650 range floor; price sits below the EMA(20) near 0.5663, with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 0.5650, 0.56441, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5663, 0.56769, 0.56874
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5644 week low breaks the range floor and exposes the 0.5600 april base
Recovery above the ema20 and the 0.5677 asia high would neutralise the lower-high sequence; a close above the 0.5687 week high breaks the range
US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC plus Fedspeak through 19:00 UTC today could shift this read
US ADP at 12:15 UTC Wednesday is the next high-impact test of the 0.5650 floor
05:04 UTC
Downtrend, stalled into range · RSI 41 · price 0.56565
0.5650–0.5687 range below lower highs.
Wednesday's slide from 0.5712 to 0.5650 followed the hot US flash PMIs. Since then price has held a 0.5650–0.5687 range, with the 0.5650 area and Monday's 0.5649 weekly low absorbing every test. Monday's NY-session push stalled at the 0.5687 monday high, the 61.8% fib of Wednesday's drop, extending the lower highs; the Asia session then faded after the RBA hike lifted AUD/NZD, leaving price back below the ema20 near 0.5663 with RSI(14) around 41.
Support: 0.5649, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5663, 0.5687, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5649 weekly low breaks the multi-session floor and exposes the 0.5600 april base
Sustained trade back above the ema20 and the 0.5687 monday high breaks the lower-highs line, with the 0.5700 old floor next above
JOLTS and Fedspeak today, plus ADP Wed 12:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
04:03 UTC
Sideways after Wednesday's sell-off, EMAs flat · RSI 49 · price 0.56628
0.5650–0.5687 range, shallow higher lows since Monday.
Wednesday's US flash PMI beat knocked NZDUSD out of the 0.5700 area during NY hours. The 0.5650 range floor then held on Thursday, Friday and again at Monday's Asia open, and the pair has ranged since. Monday's NY spike to the 0.5687 week high was rejected almost exactly at the 61.8% of the Wed-Mon fib, and today's Asia high at 0.5677 came in lower. Price sits back under a flat EMA20 near 0.5665 (EMA50 is clustered alongside) with RSI(14) near 49, and only shallow higher lows since Monday down to the 0.5656 day low.
Support: 0.5656, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5665, 0.5677, 0.5687
What it said to watch
RBA decision around 04:30 UTC today could materially shift this read via AUD/NZD spillover
H1 close below the 0.5650 range floor ends the three-session hold and opens the path toward 0.5626
Loss of the 0.5656 day low breaks the higher lows line from Monday
H1 close above the 0.5687 week high clears the 61.8% Wed-Mon fib and breaks the range top
Holding above ema20 at 0.5665 would bring the 0.5677 asia high back into play
JOLTS and US Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, plus Fedspeak into 19:00 UTC, are the NY-session risk
0.5649–0.5687 range; higher lows since Monday against a lower high.
The window's dominant move came in Wednesday's NY session, when strong US flash PMIs knocked NZDUSD from 0.5711 to the 0.5650 floor. That floor held on Thursday and Friday, and again in Monday's Asia session after a brief false break to the 0.5649 weekly low. Monday's NY rally, helped by the US-China truce extension, stalled at the 0.5687 week high, almost exactly the 61.8% fib of the drop. Price now sits near 0.5670, just above the ema20 (~0.5666) and the Tuesday asian low trendline, with RSI(14) flat near 52.
Support: 0.5666, 0.5656, 0.5649
Resistance: 0.5677, 0.5687, 0.5700
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 0.5649 weekly low breaks the three-session floor and ends the range read
A close above the 0.5687 week high clears the 61.8% fib and the lower-highs trendline, opening the 0.5700 round number
Session high at 0.5677 is capping Tuesday so far; losing the ema20 and the 0.5656 asian low puts the higher-lows trendline under test
The RBA decision today, US JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, and heavy Fedspeak could materially shift this read
US ADP on Wed 12:15 UTC is the next high-impact USD risk inside the range
0.5649–0.5687 range with higher lows since Monday.
Wednesday's US flash PMI beat drove the NY-session break below 0.5700. Since then NZDUSD has boxed between the 0.5650 floor and 0.5687, and Monday's Asia-session week low at 0.5649 was the third test of that floor. Monday's NY rally met rejection at the week high 0.5687, the 61.8% fib of the Wednesday–Monday decline, and price has faded back under EMA(20) near 0.5665 with RSI(14) flat at 49, while a shallow higher-low sequence to Tuesday's 0.5656 holds through the Asia session.
Support: 0.5656, 0.5649
Resistance: 0.5665, 0.5687, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5649 week low breaks the range floor and resumes the post-PMI downtrend
Loss of the 0.5656 higher low breaks the rising line from Monday's low
Close above the 0.5687 week high and 61.8% fib opens the 0.5700 psych level
RBA decision today and US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read, with ADP due Wed 12:15 UTC
0.5650–0.5687 range after Wednesday's impulsive drop; shallow higher lows since Monday.
The dominant move came in the NY sessions on Wednesday and Thursday, when the US flash PMI beat drove the pair from the 0.5711 week high to the 0.5650 week low. That low has held four times since, from Thursday NY through Monday's Asia open. Monday's NY rally was rejected at 0.5687, the Monday high, which sits right on the 61.8% retracement of the drop. The pullback has put price back under EMA(20) near 0.5665, with RSI(14) around 45, while higher lows at 0.5649, 0.5653 and 0.5656 keep the range intact.
Support: 0.5653, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5665, 0.5687, 0.5711
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 0.5650 week low breaks the range floor and confirms a lower-low in the downtrend
A loss of the 0.5653 higher low and the higher lows trendline would undo Monday's basing structure
Recovery above EMA(20) at 0.5665, then the 0.5687 Monday high and the 61.8% retracement, would shift the read toward a deeper retracement toward the 0.5711 week high
RBA decision Tuesday and US JOLTS at 14:00 UTC, then ADP on Wednesday, could materially shift this read
Wednesday's NY-session slide on the US flash PMI beat took the pair from 0.5718 to the 0.5650 range floor, which held on Thursday, Friday and Monday. Monday's gap to the 0.5649 week low was a false break reclaimed in Asia, and the NY rally met rejection at the 0.5687 monday high, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the week's drop. Price has since slipped back below the ema20 toward the weekly open, with RSI(14) near 46 and higher lows under test.
Support: 0.5655, 0.5649, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5665, 0.5687, 0.5700
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 0.5650 range floor and the 0.5649 week low resumes the downtrend read
A close back above the ema20 at 0.5665 and then the 0.5687 monday high puts the 0.5700 psych level in view
Loss of the Monday higher lows line near 0.5660 puts the weekly open at 0.5655 back in play
RBA decision today and US JOLTS 14:00 UTC, then ADP Wednesday and PCE later this week, could materially shift this read