21:07 UTC
Downtrend, oversold near september low · RSI 24 · price 0.56601
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.5988 August peak, below a falling EMA(50).
NZD/USD has printed lower highs and lower lows since the 0.5988 August 21 peak, which stalled just under the late-May 0.5994 high to form a double top. Price now sits below the ema20 near 0.5747 and a falling ema50 near 0.5800. Hawkish Fed repricing and strong US flash PMIs knocked the pair out of its 0.5700–0.5800 range last Wednesday, and the sept low around 0.5650 has held for four sessions with RSI near 24, in oversold territory. The june low at 0.5626 marks the double top neckline, with the 0.5600 round number, the floor of the range since April, beneath it.
Support: 0.5649, 0.5626, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.5747, 0.5800
What it said to watch
- A daily close below the june low at 0.5626 breaks the double top neckline and exposes the 0.5600 round number
- A recovery back above the 0.5700 range base brings the ema20 near 0.5747 and the descending trendline into focus
- A close above the ema50 near 0.5800, just over the 38.2% fib of the Aug-Sep decline at 0.5778, would neutralise the downtrend read
- US ADP and Core PCE on Wed 30 Sep, then NFP later this week, could materially shift this read
- NZIER Business Confidence on Mon 5 Oct is the key input for RBNZ Oct 28 hike pricing