21:08 UTC
Downtrend, oversold at prior base · RSI 25 · price 0.56518
LH/LL chain from Aug 21 high, testing June low.
The five-week downtrend from the Aug 21 high at 0.5988 has retraced almost all of the late-June to August rally. Price is holding below a falling EMA(50) near 0.5800, with lower highs capped by the Sep downtrend line. This week the pair is retesting the June low near 0.5626 as a firm USD, higher yields and Fed October-hike pricing outweigh largely priced RBNZ hike odds. RSI near 25 matches the readings into the June base, so a hold here would leave a possible double-bottom shape against the late-June low.
Support: 0.5626, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5687, 0.5720, 0.5800
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the june low at 0.5626 extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5600 range floor in place since April
- Close above the week high at 0.5687 and the Sep downtrend line would be the first break in the five-week sequence, with ema20 near 0.5720 next
- Recovery through the ema50 near 0.5800, the 38.2-50% zone of the Aug-Sep fib, is needed to challenge the downtrend read
- ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC Thu could shift Fed October-hike pricing and materially change this read