21:06 UTC
Downtrend, bounce faded · RSI 41 · price 0.56074
Lower highs and lower lows from 0.5889; post-NFP bounce capped below prior floor.
NZDUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows across the window, from 0.5889 down to a swing low at 0.5586. The bounce on the weak US payrolls print stalled at the 0.5643 bounce high. That area sits between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the 0.5687 swing high to 0.5586 leg, and below both the lower-high trendline and the 0.5650 prior floor. Price has slipped back under EMA20 and EMA50 toward the 0.5600 round number, with RSI near 41 and ATR(14) around 18-19 pips, neither compressed nor expanding.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.56427, 0.5650, 0.56874
What it said to watch
- H4 close above the 0.5650 prior floor and the lower-high trendline would break the lower-high sequence and expose the 0.5687 swing high
- Failure to hold the 0.5600 round number and a break of the 0.5586 swing low would extend the lower-low structure
- Rejection again below the 0.5643 bounce high keeps the retracement contained inside the fib 50-61.8% zone
- US ISM Services Mon 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) and RBNZ Breman Thu 08:00 UTC could materially shift this read