21:06 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 27 · price 0.56074
Lower highs and lower lows since the 21 Aug peak at 0.5988, June low broken.
Six straight weekly declines from the 21 Aug peak near 0.5988 have built a clean lower-high, lower-low chain, with price below a falling EMA(50) and capped by a falling trendline through the September lower highs, most recently 0.5749. Last week broke the 0.5650 prior floor and the 0.5626 june low to print a swing low at 0.5586, and the soft US payrolls miss on Friday produced only a modest close back above the 0.5600 psych handle. RSI near 27 sits in oversold territory on D1, but there is no divergence and no higher low yet.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5586
Resistance: 0.5626, 0.5650, 0.5749
What it said to watch
- Daily close back above the 0.5626 june low and the 0.5650 prior floor would mark the first failed breakdown of the move
- Failure to hold the 0.5600 psych handle and the 0.5586 swing low extends the lower-low sequence
- A daily close above the falling trendline and the 0.5749 lower high would break the September lower-high chain
- US ISM Services PMI Mon Oct 5 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could rebuild or further unwind Fed hike odds, NZD's main driver
- RBNZ Breman speech Thu Oct 8 08:00 UTC: any pushback on the ~80%-priced Oct 28 hike weighs on the read near 0.5600