Lower high at 0.5556 after NFP low; late-NY compression above London low.
The blowout NFP (165K vs 65K) knocked NZDUSD through the London low at 0.5539 to an NFP low of 0.5527. That break failed and the spike reversed to 0.5556, but the move has since faded back to the 50% retrace of the post-NFP leg. Late NY is compressing in a 4-pip band between 0.5539 and a range top at 0.5543, with RSI(14) neutral near 44 and ATR down to about 3 pips.
Support: 0.5539, 0.55274
Resistance: 0.5543
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5539 london low reopens the 0.5527 nfp low
Break above the 0.5543 range top needed to retest the 0.5556 nfp high
Saturday NZ election: thin late-Friday trade and weekend gap risk could override this structure at the open
Post-NFP spike low and rebound fading; tight late-NY range at the 50% retrace.
The 165K NFP beat knocked NZDUSD through the 0.5540 area to a 0.5527 nfp low. A sharp reversal ran to the 0.5556 nfp high, then faded on a lower high near 0.5552. Late NY has compressed at the 50% fib retrace of that rebound, holding just above the 0.5539 late-ny low, with RSI(14) near 42 and ATR shrinking into the Friday close.
Support: 0.5539, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.5552, 0.5556
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5539 late-ny low reopens the 0.5527 nfp low
Reclaim of the 0.5552 lower high puts the 0.5556 nfp high back in play
Weekend NZ election with no clear majority: gap risk at Monday's open
Lower highs off 0.5556, compressing just above 0.5539.
NZD bled through Asia and London, breaking the Asian low at 0.5557. The blowout NFP (165K vs 65K) then flushed it to a 0.5527 nfp low, which failed inside an hour as price snapped back to a 0.5556 rebound high. Late NY has faded to the 0.5540 19-month-low zone at the london low, the 50% fib of the rebound, with price pinned in a 4-pip band and RSI(14) at 43.
Support: 0.5539, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.5550, 0.5556
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5539 london low reopens the 0.5527 nfp low
Reclaim of the 0.5550 pre-nfp high, then the 0.5556 rebound high, would turn the late-NY fade into a higher low
Holding the 50% fib of the NFP rebound keeps the 0.5527 false break intact
Saturday NZ election: thin late-Friday liquidity and Monday gap risk could materially shift this read
Lower highs off NFP rebound high, compressing above London low.
The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) pushed NZDUSD through the 0.5539 London low to a 0.5527 nfp low. That break failed within the hour and the pair rebounded to a 0.5556 nfp high. Since then the rebound has printed lower highs and retraced to its 50% fib, leaving price flat in a thin 0.5539–0.5543 late-NY band, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) neutral at 44.
Support: 0.5539, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.5550, 0.5556
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5539 london low exposes the 0.5527 nfp low
Recovery above the 0.5550 pre-nfp top breaks the lower highs sequence and points back at the 0.5556 nfp high
Saturday NZ election with no clear majority: weekend gap risk at Monday's open, and late-NY liquidity is thin
Post-NFP false break below London low, now compressing into late NY.
The 165K NFP beat knocked NZDUSD through the London low at 0.5539 to an NFP low of 0.5527. That break failed, and price recovered to a post-NFP high of 0.5555 before fading back through late NY. Price is now drifting at 0.5542 near the 50% retrace of that bounce, with RSI(14) neutral at 46 and bars compressing into the Friday close.
Support: 0.55395, 0.55274
Resistance: 0.55503, 0.55555
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5539 london low reopens the 0.5527 nfp low
Reclaim of the 0.5550 range top, the pre-NFP ceiling, brings the 0.5555 post-nfp hi back into view
Thin late-NY Friday liquidity; Saturday NZ election carries gap risk at the Monday open
19:03 UTC
Post-NFP whipsaw, fading in late NY · RSI 41 · price 0.55424
Failed break below London low, lower highs since 0.5556.
The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) swept the 0.5540 London low down to the 0.5527 NFP low, but the break failed and price snapped back to the 0.5556 post-NFP high within the hour. Since then, late NY has carved lower highs back to the 50% retracement near 0.5542, with RSI(14) near 41 and ATR down to about 4 pips as liquidity thins.
Support: 0.5540, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.5549
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5540 london low reopens the 0.5527 nfp low
Close above the 0.5549 lower high breaks the post-NFP lower-high trendline toward 0.5556
Saturday NZ election carries weekend gap risk; thin late-Friday liquidity could exaggerate moves
Asia and London sold off steadily from 0.5600 into a 0.5540–0.5550 range, with the London low at 0.5540. The blowout NFP (165K vs 65K) produced a false break to the 0.5527 NFP low before a sharp reclaim to the 0.5556 NFP high. Late NY has faded that bounce in lower highs and is back on the London low near the 50% retrace, RSI(14) around 41.
Support: 0.5540, 0.55274
Resistance: 0.5550, 0.55555
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5540 london low reopens the 0.5527 nfp low
Recovery above the 0.5550 range top breaks the lower-highs trendline and brings the 0.5556 nfp high back into view
NZ election Saturday with no majority in sight: gap risk at Monday's open
Thin late-Friday NY liquidity can exaggerate moves around 0.5540
The 165K NFP beat flushed NZDUSD through the 0.5540 london low to a 0.5527 nfp low before a sharp reversal to a 0.5556 ny high, above the 0.5550 pre-nfp high. Price has since faded on a lower-highs trendline back to 0.5541, near the 50% retracement of the rebound, and sits below both EMAs.
Support: 0.5540, 0.55274
Resistance: 0.5550
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5540 london low puts the 0.5527 nfp low back in focus
Reclaim of the 0.5550 pre-nfp high and the lower-highs trendline neutralises the fade toward the 0.5556 ny high
Saturday NZ election brings weekend gap risk into thin late-Friday NY trade
NFP false break below London low reversed to 0.5556; lower highs since, back at the 50% retrace.
The blowout NFP (165K vs 65K) knocked NZDUSD through the London low to 0.5527, a false break that reversed sharply to a post-NFP high at 0.5556. That rebound has since printed lower highs under the 0.5550 pre-NFP high. After London close, price is back at the 50% retrace and pressing the 0.5540 London low, with RSI(14) at 42 and below both EMAs.
Support: 0.5540, 0.55381, 0.55274
Resistance: 0.55503
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5540 London low opens the 61.8% fib at 0.5538 and the 0.5527 NFP low
Reclaim of the 0.5550 pre-NFP high breaks the lower-high sequence from the 0.5556 post-NFP high
Fed's Daly at 18:00 UTC could shift the read in the final NY hours
Weekend NZ election brings gap risk into Monday's open
The NFP beat pushed NZD to a 0.5527 low in the first hour of NY, but the break of the 0.5540 London low failed and price rebounded to a 0.5556 NFP high. Lower highs along a trendline since then have pulled it back to 0.5543 after London close, retesting the London low with RSI(14) near 46.
Support: 0.5540, 0.5538, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.5550, 0.5556
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5540 London low and the 61.8% fib at 0.5538 exposes the 0.5527 NFP low
Close above the 0.5550 pre-NFP high and the lower-high trendline reopens the 0.5556 NFP high
Fed's Daly at 18:00 UTC and gap risk from the weekend NZ election could shift this read
False break below London low, now tight range 0.5544–0.5552 after London close.
The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) pushed NZD through the London low at 0.5540 to 0.5527. That break reversed within the hour, and the rebound was rejected at the old Asian low near 0.5556. Since London close, price has compressed between the 0.5544 range floor and the 0.5552 range top, holding above the 38.2% fib of the NFP-low rebound, with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 0.5544, 0.55395, 0.55274
Resistance: 0.55524
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5552 range top retests the 0.5556 asian low, the level that capped the rebound
Loss of the 0.5544 range floor and the 38.2% fib exposes the 0.5540 london low, then the 0.5527 nfp low
Fed's Daly at 18:00 UTC and weekend NZ election gap risk could shift this read into the close
False break of London low on NFP, now compressing 0.5544–0.5552.
The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) knocked price through the London low at 0.5540 to the 0.5527 NFP low, but the drop reversed within the hour to a 0.5556 rebound high above the pre-NFP high. After London close, price is compressing 0.5546–0.5552 with the 0.5544 pullback low near the 38.2% of the rebound fib. RSI(14) is around 57, EMA20 sits just underneath and EMA50 overhead near 0.5553.
Support: 0.55439, 0.55395, 0.55274
Resistance: 0.55503, 0.55555, 0.5560
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5540 london low reopens the 0.5527 nfp low and negates the false break
Close above the 0.5556 rebound high clears the pre-nfp high zone toward 0.5600 psych
Loss of the 0.5544 pullback low puts the 61.8% of the rebound fib near 0.5538 in play
Fed's Bowman (17:15 UTC) and Daly (18:00 UTC) on a December hike, plus weekend NZ election gap risk, could materially shift this read
Asia and London ground lower from 0.5599 to the 0.5540 London low. The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) knocked price through it to the 0.5527 NFP low, but that break reversed within an hour, with the rebound capped at the 0.5556 post-NFP high just under the Asian low. After London close price is holding a 0.5544–0.5552 band above the 0.5544 pullback low, RSI(14) near 56 and ATR about 6 pips.
Support: 0.55439, 0.55395, 0.55274
Resistance: 0.55555, 0.55652
What it said to watch
Close back below the 0.5540 London low turns the NFP spike into a lower-low leg toward the 0.5527 NFP low
Close above the 0.5556 post-NFP high reclaims the Asian low and exposes the 0.5565 swing high
Loss of the 0.5544 pullback low puts the 50% retrace of the NFP rebound near 0.5541 in play
Fed's Bowman (17:15 UTC) and Daly (18:00 UTC) could extend USD moves into the close
NZ election Saturday carries weekend gap risk; thin late-Friday trade can distort this range
Sweep of 0.5540 lows reversed; higher low at 0.5544 below post-NFP high.
The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) knocked NZD/USD through the 0.5540 london low to 0.5527, but that nfp low was a false break and price reversed to the 0.5556 post-nfp hi. After London close, price is holding a higher low at 0.5544, near the 38.2% retracement, and pinned under EMA50 around 0.5551.
Support: 0.55439, 0.55395, 0.55274
Resistance: 0.55555, 0.5560
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5556 post-nfp hi brings the 0.5560 prior supp zone into play
Loss of the 0.5544 higher low reopens the 0.5540 london low and 0.5527 nfp low
Fed's Bowman (17:15 UTC) and Daly (18:00 UTC) on a December hike could shift this read
Saturday NZ election carries gap risk into Monday's open
False break below 0.5540, then HH 0.5556 / HL 0.5544 off the NFP low.
The 165K NFP beat pushed price through the 0.5540 prior low to an nfp low at 0.5527. The move was fully reversed within the hour, a false break that ran to the 0.5556 session high. The pullback after London close held a swing low at 0.5544, near the 38.2% of the nfp rebound, with RSI(14) neutral around 53.
Support: 0.5544, 0.5540, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.5556, 0.5560
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5556 session high brings the 0.5560 broken supp back into play
Loss of the 0.5544 swing low reopens the 0.5540 prior low and the 0.5527 nfp low
Fed's Bowman (17:15 UTC) and Daly (18:00 UTC) on a December hike could shift the post-NFP read
Saturday NZ election raises gap risk into the weekly close
NFP spike below London low reversed; NY range 0.5527–0.5556.
The blowout NFP (165K vs 65K) pushed NZDUSD through the london low at 0.5540 to an nfp low of 0.5527. The break failed within the hour, and the rebound set a ny high at 0.5556, above the pre-data high near 0.5550. The late-NY pullback low at 0.5544 sits on the 38.2% fib of that rebound; RSI(14) is neutral near 52 and price is pinned just under EMA50.
Support: 0.55439, 0.55395, 0.55274
Resistance: 0.55555, 0.55652
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ny high at 0.5556 opens the swing high at 0.5565
Close below the 0.5544 pullback low puts the london low at 0.5540 back in play
Loss of 0.5540 reopens the 0.5527 nfp low and cancels the false-break read
Fed's Bowman (17:15 UTC) and Daly (18:00 UTC) on a December hike could shift this read
Thin late-Friday trade into Saturday's NZ election raises gap risk at Monday's open
False break below 0.5540, rebound capped under London high.
The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) knocked NZD through the 0.5540 prior low to an NFP low at 0.5527. The break failed within the hour, and price rebounded to a post-NFP high at 0.5555, just under the London high at 0.5559. Into London close, the pullback low at 0.5544 is holding near the 38.2% of the post-NFP fib, with RSI flat at 51.
Support: 0.5544, 0.5540, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.5555, 0.5559
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5559 London high breaks the session's lower-high sequence
Loss of the 0.5544 pullback low reopens the 0.5540 prior low and the 0.5527 NFP low
Fed's Bowman (17:15 UTC) and Daly (18:00 UTC) on a December hike could reprice USD and shift this read
Weekend NZ election gap risk into the Friday close
Lower highs through London; NFP spike swept the London low then reversed.
Steady slide from the 0.5599 Asian high through London. The blowout NFP (165K vs 65K) spiked price through the london low at 0.5540 to the 0.5527 nfp low, then it reversed sharply to 0.5556 (nfp high). Price is now pulling back toward the 38.2% fib of the NFP rebound, wedged between ema20 and ema50 just under the pre-nfp high at 0.5550, with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 0.5540, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.5550, 0.5556
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5556 nfp high extends the NFP rebound and clears ema50
Failure to hold the london low at 0.5540 (near the 50% fib) reopens the 0.5527 nfp low
Fed's Bowman (17:15 UTC) and Daly (18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read late in the NY session
V-reversal from NFP low; London high reclaimed, nfp high capping.
The 165K NFP beat pushed NZD/USD through the London low at 0.5540 to an nfp low of 0.5527, but that break failed. Early NY reclaimed the London high near 0.5550 and printed 0.5556. Price is now pausing at the london high, just under EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral near 54 and the rebound retracing on the fib.
Support: 0.5540, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.5550, 0.5556, 0.5560
What it said to watch
M15 close above the nfp high 0.5556 and the 0.5560 round number breaks the session lower-high chain
Failure to hold the london high at 0.5550, then 0.5540, re-exposes the nfp low at 0.5527
Fed's Bowman (17:15 UTC) and Daly (18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Weekend NZ election brings gap risk into the late NY session
NFP spike below London low reversed; lower-high line broken.
The 165K NFP beat pushed NZDUSD through the 0.5540 London low to 0.5527, but that move failed within the hour. Price has since retraced about 70% of the drop from the 0.5565 swing high, broken the lower-high line and reclaimed the 0.5550 pre-NFP high. It is now pressing the 0.5557 Asian low early in the NY session, with RSI(14) near 60 and price just above EMA50.
Support: 0.5550, 0.5540, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.5557, 0.5565, 0.5600
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5557 Asian low extends the false break toward the 0.5565 swing high, with 0.5600 psych beyond
A slip back below the 0.5550 pre-NFP high returns focus to the 0.5540 London low and the 0.5527 NFP low
Fed's Bowman (17:15 UTC) and Daly (18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read; NZ election weekend adds gap risk
Lower highs from Asian high; NFP false break below London low, reclaimed.
The 165K NFP beat drove NZDUSD through the 0.5540 London low to an NFP low at 0.5527. The break failed within the hour, and price is back inside the London range at the 50% retrace near 0.5546. The lower-high sequence from the 0.5599 Asian high is intact, and the 0.5550 London high lines up with the 61.8% fib.
Support: 0.5540, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.5550, 0.5565
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5550 london high and 61.8% fib breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes the 0.5565 swing high
Failure back below the 0.5540 london low turns the rebound into a retest of the 0.5527 nfp low
Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations (15:00 UTC) and Fed's Bowman (17:15 UTC) could materially shift this read
Weekend NZ election gap risk into the Friday close
False break below range low, back inside 0.5540–0.5550 London range.
The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) pushed NZDUSD to a 0.5527 session low in the first hour of NY. The 14:30 bar then retraced the whole drop back into the 0.5540–0.5550 London range, a false break of the range low near the 19-month low. RSI(14) sits neutral near 48, and lower highs from the 0.5565 swing high still cap the session.
Support: 0.5540, 0.55274
Resistance: 0.5550, 0.55652
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 0.5540 range low revives the post-NFP breakdown toward the 0.5527 session low
Close above 0.5550 range high and the lower-highs trendline opens the 0.5565 swing high
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 15:00 UTC, then Fed's Bowman (17:15) and Daly (18:00), could shift this read
Lower highs since Asia, pre-NFP range broken to downside.
The hawkish NFP beat (165K vs 65K) pushed NZDUSD out of its 0.5540–0.5550 London range, from the pre-NFP high at 0.5550 down to the nfp low at 0.5527. That extends a chain of lower highs from the Asia-session slide and takes out the 0.5540 london low. RSI(14) sits near 26, stretched but not at extremes, with NY-session bars now compressing near the lows.
Support: 0.55274, 0.5500
Resistance: 0.5540, 0.55503
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above 0.5540 london low would mark the NFP break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5527 nfp low exposes the 0.5500 round number
A close above the 0.5550 pre-nfp high breaks the lower-high trendline
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 15:00 UTC, plus Fed's Bowman at 17:15 and Daly at 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
14:17 UTC
Downtrend, extended after NFP · RSI 27 · price 0.5528
Lower highs and lower lows; pre-NFP range broken lower.
The NFP beat (165K vs 65K) knocked NZDUSD out of its 0.5540–0.5550 London range during the London-NY transition, and price is pressing fresh lows at the 0.5528 nfp low with RSI(14) near 27. The chain of lower highs from the 0.5599 Asian session high is intact, and the former range floor at 0.5540 now sits overhead.
Support: 0.5528, 0.5500
Resistance: 0.5540, 0.5550
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5540 range floor would mark the NFP break as a false break
Acceptance below the 0.5528 nfp low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5500 round number
Reclaim of the 0.5550 range top would break the lower-highs trendline
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 15:00 UTC, then Fed's Bowman at 17:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; London range 0.5540–0.5550 broken lower on NFP.
NZD/USD extended its Asia-to-London slide on the NFP release, spiking to the 0.5529 NFP low before a partial recovery. The rebound stalled under the 0.5540 London low, the former 19-month low, while the descending highs line from the 0.5565 lower high still caps price. Price holds below EMA20/50 in the first hour of NY, with USD safe-haven demand and weekend NZ election risk weighing on NZD.
Support: 0.55291, 0.5500
Resistance: 0.55395, 0.55503, 0.55652
What it said to watch
Holding below the 0.5540 London low keeps the range break intact; an M15 close back above it reopens the 0.5540–0.5550 range
Reclaim of the 0.5550 pre-NFP high breaks the descending highs line and the lower-high chain
Loss of the 0.5529 NFP low exposes the 0.5500 psych level
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 15:00 GMT, then Fed's Bowman at 17:15 GMT, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Asia, London low broken on NFP spike.
London broke the Asian low at 0.5557 and ground into the 19-month low near the 0.5540 London low. The 13:30 GMT NFP bar broke the 0.5540–0.5550 pre-data range and spiked to 0.5529 before closing back at 0.5538, with the lower highs trendline from 0.5565 still capping and RSI(14) near 35, not stretched.
Support: 0.5529, 0.5500
Resistance: 0.5540, 0.5550, 0.5557
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5540 London low would mark the NFP break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5529 NFP low opens the 0.5500 round number
Close above the 0.5550 pre-NFP high breaks the lower highs trendline; the Asian low at 0.5557 sits just above
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 15:00 GMT, then Fed's Bowman at 17:15 GMT, could shift this read
Saturday's NZ election adds gap risk into the weekly close
13:32 UTC
Downtrend, compressing at the lows · RSI 40 · price 0.55403
Lower highs; tight London box, NFP spike below.
London broke the asian low at 0.5557 and then held a tight 0.5540–0.5550 box near 19-month lows as haven USD demand persisted, with the session high at 0.5550 capping. The NFP bar spiked to 0.5529, a sweep of the london low, then snapped back to 0.5540. RSI(14) is near 40 and ATR is expanding off the print.
Support: 0.5540, 0.5529
Resistance: 0.5550, 0.5557
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.5529 nfp low confirms acceptance under the london low
A reclaim of the 0.5550 session high reopens the 0.5557 asian low, which aligns with the 38.2% drop fib
NFP bar still forming: a spike that reverses into the close can flip the read either way
NZ election gap risk at Monday's open
13:17 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 42 · price 0.55455
LL/LH chain into a tight 0.5540–0.5550 box under the 38.2% fib.
Haven USD demand extended the overnight slide. London broke the Asian low at 0.5553 and printed a session low of 0.55395 at the 19-month low area by 10:15 GMT. Price has since compressed in a ~10-pip box, building higher lows at 0.5542, while the 12:15 GMT push stalled at the 0.5550 range top, the 38.2% fib of the descending highs leg.
Support: 0.5542, 0.55395
Resistance: 0.55503, 0.55533, 0.5560
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 GMT (f/c 65K, prior 29K) is likely to resolve the 0.5540–0.5550 box
M15 close below the 0.55395 session low extends the downtrend to fresh 19-month lows
Loss of the 0.5542 higher lows shelf puts the session low back in play
Reclaim of the 0.5550 range top and the 0.5553 Asian low (broken support) opens the path to the 0.5560 pivot and challenges the descending highs line
13:03 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 48 · price 0.55457
Lower highs since Asia; tight 0.5540–0.5550 base in late London.
London broke the 0.5557 Asian low and extended to a 0.5540 session low near the 19-month low as haven USD demand held. Price has since compressed in a 0.5540–0.5550 band, with the bounce high capped at 0.5550, roughly the 38.2% of the London leg and just under the lower-high line. RSI(14) is neutral near 48 and ATR is about 4 pips into NFP.
Support: 0.5543, 0.55395
Resistance: 0.5550, 0.5557
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 GMT (about 28 min) could materially shift this read and resolve the 0.5540–0.5550 compression
M15 close below the 0.5540 session low extends the lower-low chain to fresh 19-month lows
Loss of the 0.5543 higher low returns focus to the session low
Close above the 0.5550 bounce high and the 0.5557 Asian low breaks the lower-high line and invalidates the downtrend read
Lower highs since Asia; 0.5540–0.5546 base now testing 0.5550.
London extended the overnight slide through the Asian low at 0.5557 to a session low near 0.5540, a fresh 19-month low on USD safe-haven demand into NFP. Price then based at 0.5540–0.5546 and is now testing 0.5550, the 38.2% fib retrace of the London leg. RSI(14) is neutral near 52 and ATR(14) is about 3.8 pips.
Support: 0.5546, 0.5540
Resistance: 0.5550, 0.5557, 0.5565
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 GMT (~45 min) could materially shift this read, with NZ election weekend gap risk behind it
M15 close above the 38.2% fib at 0.5550 opens the path to the Asian low at 0.5557, and the 0.5565 lower high caps above that
Slip back under the 0.5546 base top returns price to the base
Failure to hold the 0.5540 session low confirms a lower-low extension
Lower highs and lows all window; small higher-low base since 10:15 UTC.
NZDUSD broke through the 0.5560 area in Asia, and London extended the slide to a session low at 0.55395 as the USD drew safe-haven demand. Since then a chain of higher lows from 0.5541 has lifted price into the 0.5550 round number, which is also the 38.2% retrace of the drop from the 0.5565 bounce high. NFP is due in about an hour.
Support: 0.55416, 0.55395
Resistance: 0.5550, 0.5557, 0.55652
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.5550 round number exposes the 0.5557 Asian low and the 61.8% retrace near 0.5555.
A break of the 0.5541 higher low and the 0.5540 session low resumes the lower-low chain.
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K, prior 29K) is likely to override this intraday structure.
Recovery through the 0.5565 bounce high would end the London lower-high sequence.
Lower highs from Asia, flat 0.5540–0.5548 range since late London morning.
Safe-haven USD demand ahead of NFP drove the pair through 0.5560 broken supp during Asia, and London extended the slide to a 0.5540 session low, about 85 pips under yesterday's 0.5627 high. Since then price has compressed in a 0.5540–0.5548 range, sitting on EMA20. RSI(14) is flat near 49 and ATR has shrunk to about 3.6 pips.
Support: 0.5540, 0.5500
Resistance: 0.5548, 0.5552, 0.5560
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 GMT (f/c 65K) is the next catalyst for a break of the 0.5540–0.5548 range
M15 close above the 0.5548 range top opens the 0.5552 50% fib of the London leg, then 0.5560 broken supp
Failure to hold the 0.5540 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5500 round number
12:03 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 38 · price 0.55426
Lower highs and lows since the Asia high; tight 0.5540–0.5548 consolidation after the break of 0.5550.
Asia session sold off from 0.5599. London extended the drop through the 0.5553 break level to a session low of 0.5540 as safe-haven USD demand held into NFP. Price has since compressed for about 2.5 hours under a 0.5548 range top. RSI(14) sits near 38 and ATR is only about 3.7 pips.
Support: 0.5540, 0.5500
Resistance: 0.5548, 0.5553, 0.5565
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 GMT (f/c 65K, prev 29K) is likely to resolve the 0.5540–0.5548 consolidation; a soft print carries the larger squeeze risk
An M15 close back above the 0.5553 break level (near the 23.6% fib of the Asia high-to-low drop) would neutralise the breakdown
A close below the 0.5540 session low extends the lower-low sequence and opens the 0.5500 round number
A rebound that stalls below the 0.5565 swing high (38.2% fib zone) keeps the lower-high chain intact
Lower highs and lower lows since NY open; tight range above the London session low.
Lower highs from 0.5632 carried through NY and Asia. Early London broke the 0.5553 breakdown area, with USD firm on safe-haven and pre-NFP demand. Since then price has compressed in a 9-pip range between the 0.5540 session low and the 0.5549 range top, RSI(14) near 37 and ATR at about 4 pips.
Support: 0.55395
Resistance: 0.55486, 0.55536, 0.55652
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; the current ATR understates the likely release range
M15 close below the 0.5540 session low extends the lower-low chain
Recovery through the 0.5549 range top into the 0.5553 breakdown zone (23.6% fib) would print the first higher high since the Asia bounce at 0.5565
11:32 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into a base · RSI 38 · price 0.55463
Lower highs and lower lows; London broke the Asian low, now a tight 0.5540–0.5548 base.
Asia sold through 0.5560, and London broke the Asian low at 0.5557 to a session low of 0.5540, with pre-NFP USD demand and weak NZ jobs data behind the leg. Price is basing just above that low and has retraced less than a quarter of the London leg off the asia bounce high at 0.5565. RSI(14) is near 38 and the ema20 at 0.5548 sits just above.
Support: 0.55395, 0.5500
Resistance: 0.5548, 0.5557, 0.55652
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 GMT (~2h) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.5548 ema20 opens a retest of the asian low at 0.5557, near the 61.8% of the London leg fib
Failure to hold the 0.5540 session low confirms another lower-low, with the 0.5500 round number the next marker
Recovery through the 0.5565 asia bounce high would break the lower-high sequence
Lower highs since Asia; London broke Asian low, now compressing.
Haven USD demand after the AI-equity rout and the weak NZ jobs data kept the Asia-session lower highs intact from 0.5599, and London open broke the Asian low at 0.5553. Price has since pinned near the 0.5540 session low and psych level, holding a tight 0.5540–0.5549 band under the range top with ATR(14) near 4 pips. Bounces remain below the 06:30 UTC swing high at 0.5565.
Support: 0.55395, 0.5540
Resistance: 0.55486, 0.55533, 0.55652
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (~2h) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.5549 range top and back inside the Asian low at 0.5553 would weaken the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 0.5540 session low and psych level extends the lower-low sequence
A recovery through the 0.5565 swing high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Saturday NZ election adds weekend gap risk into the Friday close
Lower highs and lower lows since Asia; London broke the Asian low and is now basing in a tight 0.5540–0.5549 range.
Asia sold from 0.5598 to an Asian low at 0.5557, and London broke it to set a 0.5540 session low. The USD haven bid and weak NZ jobs data are behind the drop. Since 08:30 GMT price has compressed into a 0.5540–0.5549 range below the 0.5560 area, with RSI(14) near 31 and ATR around 4.5 pips as the leg pauses ahead of NFP.
Support: 0.5540, 0.5500
Resistance: 0.5549, 0.5557, 0.5565
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 GMT (~2.5h, f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; expect volatility well above the 4.5-pip ATR
A close above the 0.5549 range top opens a retest of the broken 0.5557 Asian low, near the 50% fib of the London leg at 0.5552
Failure to hold the 0.5540 session low extends the lower-low chain, with the 0.5500 round number the next reference
A reclaim of the 0.5565 swing high negates the London downtrend read
10:47 UTC
Downtrend, compressing at lows · RSI 30 · price 0.55415
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian low broken at London open, tight range since.
Lower highs and lower lows ran through Asia, and London open broke the 0.5553 asian low, extending to a 0.5540 session low as USD safe-haven demand pushed the pair through the 0.5560 broken supp. Since 08:30 UTC price has compressed in a 0.5540–0.5548 range below the descending trendline, with RSI(14) near 30.
Support: 0.55395
Resistance: 0.55483, 0.55533, 0.5560
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5548 range top and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain; the pair has to get back above the 0.5553 asian low to undo the London break
Failure to hold the 0.5540 session low extends the lower-low sequence
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; on a USD-negative print, the 0.5560 broken supp lines up with the 38.2% of the Asia-London leg near 0.5562
Saturday's NZ election adds gap risk into the weekly close
Lower highs through London; tight 0.5540–0.5549 consolidation.
London broke the asian low at 0.5557 and pressed through 0.5550 as the pre-NFP USD bid and weak NZ jobs data weighed. Price has compressed for two hours between the 0.5540 session low and the 0.5549 range top. The london lower highs are still capping, with RSI(14) near 30.
Support: 0.55395
Resistance: 0.5549, 0.5557, 0.5560
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 UTC is the likely catalyst to break the 0.5540–0.5549 consolidation
A close above the 0.5549 range top and the london lower highs line exposes the asian low at 0.5557
Failure to hold the 0.5540 session low extends the downtrend
A reclaim of the 0.5560 round number would put the 38.2–50% retracement of the london decline in play
Lower highs and lower lows since Asia, tight box at the session low.
A string of lower highs through Asia took NZDUSD below the 0.5564 18m low. London then broke the 0.5553 Asian low and printed a 0.5541 session low on a USD bid driven by risk aversion and weak NZ data. Price has since compressed in a 0.5541–0.5548 box, with RSI(14) near 31 and ATR around 4.5 pips ahead of NFP.
Support: 0.55411, 0.5500
Resistance: 0.55483, 0.55533, 0.5564
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 GMT (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.5548 range top and the lower highs line breaks the intraday sequence
A reclaim of the 0.5553 Asian low would mark the London break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5541 session low extends the lower-low chain, with no marked level until the 0.5500 round number
Return above the 0.5564 18m low required to neutralise the breakdown
10:04 UTC
Downtrend, oversold, pace slowing · RSI 23 · price 0.55423
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian high; Asian low broken in London.
Lower highs have held since the 0.5599 Asian high. London broke the 0.5557 Asian low and the 0.5550–0.5560 zone on pre-NFP USD demand and the NZ jobs miss, pressing to a fresh session low near 0.5542. RSI(14) is oversold near 23, and the last hour has compressed into a 0.5542–0.5548 drift under the 0.5548 lower high, just above the 0.5540 round number.
Support: 0.55416, 0.5540
Resistance: 0.55483, 0.5557, 0.55652
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.5548 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Reclaim of the 0.5557 Asian low invalidates the London breakdown
Hold below the 0.5542 session low extends lower lows toward the 0.5540 round number
Push back through the 0.5565 London high retraces the full London leg
Lower highs and lows; Asian range broken lower in London.
Haven USD demand and weak NZ jobs data keep the pair in a steady lower-high sequence, with the London high at 0.5565 rejected and the Asian low at 0.5557 broken at 08:15 UTC. Price is now compressing just above the 0.5543 session low below 0.5560, RSI(14) near 31 and not yet at an extreme.
Support: 0.55435, 0.5540
Resistance: 0.5557, 0.55652
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5557 Asian low would mark the London break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5543 session low exposes the 0.5540 round number
A close above the 0.5565 London high breaks the lower-high trendline
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; NZ election Saturday adds weekend gap risk
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian high; Asian range broken lower in London.
A clean lower-high chain from the 0.5599 Asian high carried NZDUSD through the 0.5557 Asian low in early London and down to a 0.5544 session low, below the 0.5560 area, as USD haven demand built into NFP. Mid-London, RSI(14) sits near 29 with price below both EMAs, and the last four bars are compressing just above the session low.
Support: 0.55436, 0.5540
Resistance: 0.55533, 0.5557, 0.55652
What it said to watch
US NFP at 13:30 GMT (f/c 65K) and Fed Williams now could materially shift this read
An M15 close back above the 0.5553 london low and the descending trendline would break the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.5544 session low extends the leg toward the 0.5540 round number
A recovery to the 0.5557 asian low or the 0.5565 lower high (38.2% fib) would mark a deeper retracement of the leg
LH/LL chain through Asia; London open broke the Asian low.
London open extended the Asia slide, breaking the asian low at 0.5553 and the 0.5560 prior supp zone. Price printed a session low at 0.5544 as pre-NFP USD haven demand built. Lower highs at 0.5568 and 0.5565 cap the structure, and RSI(14) near 31 is soft but not yet at an extreme.
Support: 0.55436, 0.5540
Resistance: 0.55533, 0.5560, 0.55679
What it said to watch
Fed Williams at 09:30 GMT and NFP (f/c 65K) at 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 0.5553 asian low marks the London break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5544 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5540 round number
A close above the 0.5568 lower high breaks the descending-highs trendline
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian low broken in London.
London session broke the 0.5557 Asian low, then cleared the 0.5553–0.5559 shelf at 08:15 UTC. Price is sitting on the 0.5544 session low with RSI(14) near 29, and the lower high chain runs 0.5565 → 0.5559 → 0.5552. Pre-NFP USD haven demand and this week's weak NZ jobs data are behind the leg. Price is already through the 0.5560 area flagged as support.
Support: 0.55436, 0.5540
Resistance: 0.55519, 0.5557, 0.5565
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5557 asian low would turn the London break into a false break
Rejection at the 0.5552 lower high keeps the lower-low chain intact
A clean break of the 0.5540 round number extends the leg; the 38.2% fib of the Asia-London leg at 0.5565 caps the structure
Fed Williams at 09:30 GMT and US NFP at 13:30 GMT (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian range low broken at London open.
London open broke the 0.5557 Asian low and pressed through 0.5560 and 0.5550 to a session low at 0.5545, with the pre-NFP USD bid still firm. Lower highs at 0.5568, 0.5565 and the 0.5561 London high define the lower-highs line. RSI(14) is near 29 and ATR(14) is about 4.8 pips.
Support: 0.55451, 0.5540
Resistance: 0.5557, 0.55612, 0.55652
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5557 Asian low would turn the break into a false break
Acceptance below the 0.5540 round number extends the lower-low sequence beyond the session low
Move through the 0.5565 swing high clears the lower-highs line
Fed Williams at 09:30 GMT and US NFP at 13:30 GMT (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
London open broke below the Asian range low; lower-high chain since Asia.
London open extended the Asia-session slide from 0.5599. Price broke the 0.5553 Asian low and the 0.5550 October 14 low, printing a 0.5547 session low as USD firmed into NFP. That leaves price below the 0.5560 18m low. Lower highs at 0.5568 and 0.5565 keep the intraday downtrend intact, with RSI(14) near 30, soft but not extreme.
Support: 0.55466, 0.5540
Resistance: 0.5553, 0.5560, 0.55652
What it said to watch
A recovery back above the 0.5553 Asian low would turn the London break into a false break
An M15 close above the 0.5565 lower high breaks the lower-highs chain; the 0.5560 18m low sits in between as first resistance
Failure to hold the 0.5547 session low exposes the 0.5540 round number
Fed's Williams at 09:30 GMT and US NFP at 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read; Saturday's NZ election adds weekend gap risk
Lower highs since Asia, two tests of 0.5553 in early London.
NZD bled from the 0.5599 Asian range high through the 0.5560 18m low as USD firmed into NFP. Early London has held the 0.5553 session low twice, with the 0.5565 lower high and 0.5568 swing high capping bounces. RSI(14) is near 40 and ATR is about 4.4 pips.
Support: 0.55533, 0.5550
Resistance: 0.5560, 0.55652, 0.55679
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.5553 session low exposes the 0.5550 Oct 14 low
Recovery above the 0.5565 lower high and 0.5568 swing high breaks the lower-high chain
Holding below the 0.5560 18m low keeps the broken level acting as resistance
Fed Williams at 09:30 GMT and US NFP at 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read
LH/LL chain from Asia; price pinned near the session low into London open.
The Asia drop ran from 0.5599 to a 0.5553 session low by the London open, with lower highs at 0.5568 and 0.5565 capping each bounce. RSI(14) sits near 37, and pre-NFP USD firmness plus NZ election caution keep price just below the 0.5560 support band.
Support: 0.55533, 0.5550
Resistance: 0.55652, 0.55679
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.5553 session low exposes the 0.5550 oct 14 low
A close above the 0.5565 lower high breaks the descending trendline; the 0.5568 swing high is next
US NFP at 13:30 GMT (f/c 65K), with Fed's Williams at 09:30 GMT first, could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain from the Asian high; London open printed a new session low, now retesting 0.5560 from below.
Asia sold off from the 0.5599 Asian high through the 0.5560-0.5564 support zone. The London open extended the move to a 0.5553 session low before a small bounce, and price is now retesting 0.5560 from below. Lower highs remain intact under the 0.5565 swing high, RSI(14) sits near 39 and both EMAs are overhead, with NZD weighed by the weak jobs data and Fed hike pricing.
Support: 0.55533, 0.5550
Resistance: 0.55652, 0.55992
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5553 session low exposes the Oct 14 low just above 0.5550
M15 close above the 0.5565 swing high breaks the lower-high chain and the falling trendline
Fed's Williams at 09:30 GMT could shift USD tone during London
US NFP at 13:30 GMT (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; NZ election Saturday adds gap risk
London open broke below the Asian low, fresh lower low at 0.5554.
Asia session sold off from the 0.5598 asia high to 0.5557 as the pre-NFP USD rebuild and fading RBNZ hike odds kept NZD heavy. The only bounce stalled at the 0.5565 swing high, and the first London bars broke the asia low for a session low at 0.5554, below the 0.5560-0.5564 18-month-low zone. RSI(14) near 38 shows the slide is not stretched.
Support: 0.5554, 0.5550
Resistance: 0.5557, 0.55652, 0.5598
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.5557 (asia low) would turn the London break into a false break
Failure at the 0.5550 round number, near the Oct 14 low, extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 0.5565 swing high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high chain
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and US jobs report at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
07:17 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 41 · price 0.55578
Lower highs from Asian high, tight base 0.5557-0.5568.
The Asia session extended Thursday's NY slide. A run of lower highs took price from the 0.5598 Asian high to the 0.5557 Asian low, back under the 0.5560-0.5564 18-month low zone as the USD rebuilt ahead of NFP. London open is pressing that low with RSI(14) near 41 and ATR around 4 pips, so the tape is compressing rather than accelerating.
Support: 0.5557, 0.5555
Resistance: 0.5560, 0.5568, 0.5598
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5557 Asian low exposes the Oct 14 low near 0.5555
Reclaim of the 18-month low zone at 0.5560-0.5564 plus a close above the 0.5568 lower high breaks the descending trendline
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and US NFP at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian high at 0.5598 caps the session structure; only a move back there resets the lower-high chain
07:03 UTC
Downtrend, stalling at the lows · RSI 33 · price 0.55603
LH/LL chain since London Thursday; Asian range broken lower, tight base 0.5557–0.5565.
Asia broke below the early 0.5589–0.5599 range, with the Asian low giving way after the 01:00 UTC selling. That extended a 24h slide on weak NZ jobs data and the USD recovery to a 0.5557 session low, just through the 0.5560 18-month low zone. Price is basing at London open below EMA20, and the bounce high at 0.5565 is capped under the fib 23.6% of the Asia drop.
Support: 0.5560, 0.5557
Resistance: 0.5565, 0.5573, 0.5589
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5557 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the Oct 14 low near 0.5550
Clearing the 0.5565 bounce high and the fib 38.2 at 0.5573 would print the first higher high since Asia
A return above the 0.5589 Asian low negates the range break
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs/lows through Asia; false break under 0.5560 low zone.
Asia extended Thursday's NY-session slide as the USD rebuilt into payrolls. Price broke through the 0.5580 breakdown area and wicked to a 0.5557 session low, just under the 0.5560-0.5564 18-month low zone, before closing back above it. Into the London open price is pinned below EMA20 and capped by the 0.5568 bounce high (~23.6% of the Asia leg), with RSI(14) recovering to ~41.
Support: 0.5557, 0.5550
Resistance: 0.5568, 0.5580, 0.5599
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5557 session low negates the false break and exposes the 0.5550 oct 14 low
Close above the 0.5568 bounce high and the 0.5580 breakdown area would print the first higher high since the 0.5599 asia high
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read; Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC is an earlier risk
Lower highs from 0.5650; small base above 0.5557 Asian low.
Lower highs from 0.5650 ran through London and NY Thursday. Asia extended the slide from the 0.5599 Asian high to a 0.5557 Asian low as the USD firmed into NFP. Price is now coiling between that low and the 0.5568 swing high ahead of London open, with RSI(14) near 35 off its lows.
Support: 0.5557
Resistance: 0.55679, 0.5573, 0.55992
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5557 Asian low resumes the lower-low chain
Close above the 0.5568 swing high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence; fib 38.2 at 0.5573 sits just above
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC can stir the USD before payrolls
US NFP, unemployment and wages at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the Asian high near 0.5600 caps the upside zone
Lower highs and lower lows since Asian range broke lower.
The Asian range broke lower after 01:00 UTC, about 0.5589 to the 0.5599 asian high, as the USD firmed into NFP. That extended Thursday's lower-low sequence to a 0.5557 session low, just under the 0.5560–0.5564 zone. Late Asia is basing below the 0.5568 bounce high with RSI(14) near 27. The 38.2–50% retrace of the asian high-to-low fib sits at 0.5573–0.5578.
Support: 0.5557, 0.5550
Resistance: 0.5568, 0.5599
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5568 bounce high interrupts the lower-high chain and opens the 0.5573–0.5578 fib zone
Failure to hold the 0.5557 session low exposes the oct low near 0.5550
Recovery to the 0.5599 asian high would negate the Asian range break
London open could set the next leg; Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC adds risk
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia, basing just above the session low.
Asia session extended the NY sell-off, slicing through 0.5600 and printing a session low at 0.5557, marginally under the 0.5560-0.5564 18m low zone, as weak NZ jobs data and the USD rebound weighed. Price is basing just above the session low into the London open with RSI(14) near 27, and lower highs remain intact below the 0.5568 bounce high.
Support: 0.5557, 0.5550
Resistance: 0.5562, 0.5568, 0.5600
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5557 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5550 psych level
Reclaim of the 0.5562 18m low and a close above the 0.5568 bounce high break the lower-high sequence, with the 50% retrace of the Asia drop near 0.5578 and the 0.5600 psych level above
US NFP at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
London open liquidity may test whether the session low holds
05:47 UTC
Downtrend, oversold into late Asia · RSI 21 · price 0.55589
Lower-high / lower-low chain through Asia, fresh session low.
Asia session pressed the post-NY sell-off lower. Price capped below the 0.5599 Asia high, cut through the 0.5560 prior low and printed a session low at 0.5557, with each bounce, including the 0.5568 lower high, sold. RSI(14) near 21 is oversold as weak NZ jobs data and the USD rebound keep the pair heavy into NFP.
Support: 0.55569, 0.5550
Resistance: 0.5560, 0.55679, 0.55992
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5568 lower high breaks the Asian lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.5557 session low exposes the Oct 14 low near 0.5550
Holding below the 0.5560 prior low into London open keeps it as resistance; a reclaim of the 38.2% fib (~0.5573) of the Asia leg puts the 0.5599 Asia high back in view
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) and Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:32 UTC
Downtrend, extended and oversold · RSI 18 · price 0.55573
Lower highs and lower lows since NY open; Asian range broken lower.
Early Asia broke the 0.5589–0.5599 Asian range lower, extending the NY-open sell-off. Price is now pressing below the 0.5560 18m low zone to a session low at 0.5557, with RSI(14) near 18 (oversold). A mild pre-NFP USD bid and weak NZ jobs data frame the move, and the 0.5568 bounce high is the nearest lower high capping it.
Support: 0.5557, 0.5551
Resistance: 0.5560, 0.55679, 0.55887
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.5560 (18m low) would mark the push lower as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5557 session low exposes the Oct 14 low near 0.5551
A recovery through the 0.5568 bounce high breaks the lower-high chain; the 0.5589 asian low is next overhead
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and US NFP at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since NY Thursday; early Asian range broken lower.
Late Asia session. The pair broke below the early Asian range (0.5589–0.5599) and slid about 40 pips to a session low at 0.5559, extending the lower-low chain from Thursday's NY drop as the USD firmed into NFP. The bounce stalled at 0.5568, and price is back at the low with RSI(14) near 24.
Support: 0.55593, 0.5555
Resistance: 0.55679, 0.55793, 0.55992
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5559 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the Oct 14 low near 0.5550
Recovery above the 0.5568 bounce high opens the fib 50% retracement at 0.5579
Reclaim of the 0.5599 Asian high would invalidate the intraday downtrend read
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and US NFP at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
NZ election on Saturday adds de-risking pressure into the weekend close
Late in the Asia session the pair broke the 0.5589 asian floor and extended the downtrend to the 0.5560 asia low, testing the 18-month low zone as the USD firmed into NFP and NZD stayed heavy after the weak jobs data. Price is holding a shallow bounce capped by the 0.5568 bounce high, with RSI(14) near 28 and the Asia leg retracing less than 38.2%.
Support: 0.5560, 0.5552
Resistance: 0.5568, 0.5589, 0.5600
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5560 asia low exposes the oct low near 0.5552
Close above the 0.5568 bounce high and the 38.2% retrace of the Asia leg (~0.5575) eases the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the 0.5589 asian floor would turn the range break into a false break, with the 0.5600 asian high above
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
NZ election Saturday adds weekend gap risk into the NY close
04:47 UTC
Downtrend, late Asia extension · RSI 26 · price 0.55641
Lower highs since NY; Asian range broken lower.
The Asia sell-off broke the 0.5586–0.5599 Asian range from 01:00 UTC and extended Thursday's NY slide into a test of the 0.5560 swing low (0.55598), with policy divergence and pre-NFP and NZ election positioning weighing on NZD. RSI(14) sits near 26 and the bounce has stalled at the 0.5568 bounce high, below the 0.5580 breakdown level.
Support: 0.5560, 0.5550
Resistance: 0.55679, 0.5580, 0.55992
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5560 swing low exposes the 0.5550 round number
M15 close back above the 0.5580 breakdown level neutralises the Asian range break; the 0.5599 asian high caps above
Fed's Williams (09:30 UTC) and US NFP (13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read; Saturday's NZ election adds weekend gap risk
04:32 UTC
Downtrend, oversold into the lows · RSI 22 · price 0.55629
Lower highs and lower lows since London open; Asian range broken lower.
From 01:00 UTC, Asia broke the 0.5589–0.5599 range lower and extended the post-London downtrend to a session low at 0.5560, inside the 18-month low zone. The move came on pre-NFP USD short-covering and NZ election nerves. RSI(14) near 22 is oversold and the last bars are stalling, with fib 38.2 of the asian high-to-low leg overhead near 0.5575.
Support: 0.5560, 0.5551
Resistance: 0.5575, 0.5589, 0.5599
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5560 session low exposes the Oct 14 low near 0.5551
Recovery back above the 0.5589 asian low would turn the range break into a false break
Fed's Williams (09:30 UTC) and US NFP (13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs through Asia; Thursday low broken, price at the 18m low zone.
The Asia session broke the Thursday low at 0.5589 and accelerated through 0.5580, printing a session low at 0.5560 in the 18m low zone. RSI(14) sits near 18. The move extends Thursday's USD rebound and the weak NZ jobs data, with every Asian bounce capped along a lower-high sequence from 0.5599.
Support: 0.5560, 0.5550
Resistance: 0.5567, 0.5580, 0.5589
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 18m low zone at 0.5560 exposes the Oct 14 low near 0.5550
An M15 close above the 0.5567 minor high would print the first higher high of the selloff
A recovery to the fib 50% at 0.5580 or the Thursday low at 0.5589 would retest the breakdown area
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and US NFP at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
04:03 UTC
Downtrend, accelerating into Asia · RSI 17 · price 0.55632
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian range broken lower.
Friday's Asian range of 0.5586–0.5599 gave way around 02:00 UTC. The slide then accelerated through the 0.5574 breakdown shelf into the 0.5560–0.5564 18m low zone, with the session low at 0.5561. The pre-NFP USD bid and a soft NZD backdrop drove the move, and RSI(14) near 17 is deeply oversold with price sitting at the 18m low.
Support: 0.5561, 0.5550
Resistance: 0.5574, 0.5586, 0.5599
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 18m low at 0.5561 exposes the Oct 14 low near 0.5550
Reclaim of 0.5574 breakdown and then the 0.5586 Asian low would neutralise the intraday downtrend
Asian high at 0.5599 caps the lower-high trendline structure
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC is an earlier USD catalyst
03:32 UTC
Downtrend, extended and oversold · RSI 19 · price 0.55709
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian range broken to the downside.
The Asia session broke the Asian range of 0.5589–0.5599 from 01:30 UTC, accelerated through the 0.5580 breakdown level and printed a session low at 0.5571, with RSI(14) near 19. The move extends Thursday's NY slide as policy divergence weighs on NZD after the weak NZ jobs data, and the 0.5560–0.5564 18m low zone sits just below.
Support: 0.55708, 0.5562
Resistance: 0.5580, 0.55887, 0.55992
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5571 session low exposes the 18m low zone at 0.5560–0.5564
A recovery back above the 0.5580 breakdown level would mark a stall in the Asia leg
Reclaiming the asian low at 0.5589 would negate the range break and put the asian high at 0.5599 back in play
Fed Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Friday Asian range broken lower; LH/LL sequence from the 0.5599 Asia high.
Friday Asia broke below its 0.5589–0.5599 Asian range, extending Thursday's NY-session slide to a fresh session low at 0.5573. The move follows the weak NZ jobs data and a firmer USD ahead of NFP. Descending highs remain intact and RSI(14) sits near 22, with the 18-month low zone at 0.5562 about 11 pips below.
Support: 0.5573, 0.5562
Resistance: 0.5589, 0.5599
What it said to watch
A close back above the 0.5589 Asia low (61.8% fib area) would neutralise the range break
Failure to hold the 0.5562 18-month low extends the lower-low sequence
A break of the descending highs line near 0.5593 invalidates the lower-high read
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and US NFP at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
RSI(14) near 22: stretched conditions into the 0.5573 session low
03:03 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lows in Asia · RSI 24 · price 0.55802
Lower highs and lower lows; Asian range broken to the downside.
Asia session capped at the 0.5599 asia high and broke below the 0.5589 asia low, extending the NY-led slide to 0.5580 with lower highs intact and RSI(14) near 24. The dollar's recovery into NFP keeps the pair heavy below 0.5600, with the 3-week low at 0.5575 just beneath price.
Support: 0.5575, 0.5562
Resistance: 0.5589, 0.5599
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.5589 asia low reclaims the Asian range and negates the break
Close above the lower highs trendline and 0.5599 asia high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Failure to hold 0.5575 3-week low exposes the 0.5560-0.5564 18-month low zone
Fed Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower; fresh session low below the rollover low.
The USD rebound into NY took the pair below 0.5600, and the Asia session bounce stalled at the 0.5599 asian high, just under the round number. The pair then broke the 0.5589 rollover low and printed a session low at 0.5583, with RSI(14) near 28 and the lower-highs trendline still capping.
Support: 0.55834, 0.5575, 0.5562
Resistance: 0.55887, 0.55992
What it said to watch
Close back above the 0.5589 rollover low and the lower-highs trendline would neutralise the Asian range break
Failure to hold the 0.5583 session low opens the 0.5575 3-week low, then the 0.5560-0.5564 zone around the 18m low
Reclaim of the 0.5599 asian high and 0.5600 would mark the first higher high since the NY slide
US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
02:32 UTC
Downtrend, fresh lows in Asia · RSI 32 · price 0.55847
Lower highs since NY; early Asian range broken lower.
The NY-session USD rebound took the pair through 0.5600, and the slide carried into the Asia session. The early Asian range of 0.5589–0.5599 gave way after 01:00 UTC, and price is printing a new session low at 0.5584 under the lower-highs line with RSI(14) near 32. Next below is the 3-week low at 0.5575.
Support: 0.55844, 0.5575, 0.5562
Resistance: 0.55888, 0.55992, 0.56027
What it said to watch
A reclaim of the 0.5589 asian base, then the 0.5599 asian high, would undo the range break; the 0.5603 ny low sits just above
A move through the 0.5584 session low exposes the 0.5575 3-week low, then the 0.5560–0.5564 18-month low zone
Fed Williams at 09:30 UTC and US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
A break above the lower-highs line from the NY high near 0.5617 would end the descending sequence
Asia session is carving lower highs from 0.5599 to the 0.5593 lower high and has slipped below the 0.5589 rollover low to a new session low at 0.5586, extending the NY slide driven by the USD's claims-led rebound. RSI(14) near 37 is not stretched, and the descending trendline from the Asian high is still capping each bounce.
Support: 0.55855, 0.5575
Resistance: 0.55933, 0.5600
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5586 session low exposes the 0.5575 3-week low
M15 close above the 0.5593 lower high breaks the descending trendline
Reclaim of the 0.5600 round number would invalidate the lower-high sequence
Fed Williams at 09:30 UTC and US NFP at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:03 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower in Asia · RSI 40 · price 0.55871
Lower highs from 0.5658; Asian range low broken.
NZDUSD has printed lower highs since the 0.5658 high early Thursday. The claims-led USD recovery in early NY pushed it through 0.5600. Asia has now slipped beneath its asian low at 0.5589 to a session low of 0.5586, with RSI(14) near 40 and ATR(14) around 5 pips.
Support: 0.55859, 0.5575, 0.5562
Resistance: 0.55887, 0.55992
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5589 asian low negates the range break
Lower highs trendline near 0.5592 and the asian high at 0.5599 cap structure; a close above 0.5600 breaks the sequence
Failure to hold the 0.5586 session low exposes the 0.5575 3-week low, then the 0.5560-0.5564 18m low zone
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and US NFP at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:47 UTC
Downtrend, compressing in Asia · RSI 41 · price 0.55924
Lower highs and lower lows; tight Asian range capped under 0.5600.
The downswing from 0.5658 ran about 70 pips through London and NY as the USD recovered, leaving a lower-high/lower-low chain into the close. Asia is holding a tight 0.5587–0.5599 range with the asia high capped just under 0.5600, and a fresh session low at 0.5587 printed in the last hour. RSI(14) is near 41 and ATR is under 5 pips.
Support: 0.55874, 0.5575
Resistance: 0.55992, 0.56165
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5587 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5575 3-week low
An M15 close above the 0.5599 asia high and 0.5600 invalidates the lower-high read. That opens the 0.5616 ny swing hi, near the 38.2% retrace of the downswing
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and US NFP at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
NZ election on Saturday adds event risk into the weekly close
01:32 UTC
Downtrend, Asia pause failing · RSI 40 · price 0.55892
Lower highs and lower lows since 0.5658; Asian range low under test.
The pair has posted lower highs and lower lows from the 0.5658 high, and the slide picked up pace in NY as USD recovered ahead of NFP, taking out the 0.5603 NY low and 0.5600. Asia held a tight 0.5589–0.5599 range under the descending trendline. Price is now pressing the Asian low with RSI(14) near 40, and the 4.5-pip ATR points to compressed ranges.
Support: 0.55887, 0.5575
Resistance: 0.55992, 0.56027, 0.56165
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5589 asian low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5575 3-week low
Recovery above the 0.5599 asian high and the 0.5603 ny low breaks the descending trendline and challenges the downtrend read
A move through the 0.5617 lower high from the NY bounce would neutralise the sequence
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC ahead of NFP (13:30 UTC, f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
01:17 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a tight Asian range · RSI 46 · price 0.55915
Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday's Asia high; Asian range 0.5589–0.5599 capped below 0.5600.
NZD bled lower through London and NY as the USD recovered, and the late-NY slide broke the 0.5600 round number. The Asia bounce off the 0.5589 session low stalled at the 0.5599 asian high, which is also the 38.2% retracement of the swing high-to-low leg. Price is drifting back toward the lows, with RSI(14) near 46 and ATR around 4.4 pips.
Support: 0.5589, 0.5575
Resistance: 0.55992, 0.56027, 0.56165
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5599 asian high and round number reclaims 0.5600 and puts the 0.5603 ny low in view
Break of the 0.5589 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5575 3-week low
A move back above the 0.5616 swing high would invalidate the intraday downtrend read
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC could shift USD tone ahead of Friday's NFP
01:03 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in Asia · RSI 48 · price 0.55932
Lower highs from 0.5627; tight Asian range 0.5589–0.5599 below 0.5600.
Thursday's London-NY slide from 0.5627 broke below 0.5600 as the USD recovered ahead of NFP, and the pair printed an Asian low at 0.5589 after rollover. Early Asia is holding a 10-pip range. The asian high at 0.5599 sits on the 23.6% retracement of the NY sell-off and has capped the pair, while a higher low at 0.5592 is being tested; RSI(14) is near 48 and ATR(14) is about 4 pips.
Support: 0.5592, 0.5589, 0.5575
Resistance: 0.5599, 0.5605
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5599 asian high and 0.5600 opens the 0.5603–0.5606 ny swing hi / 38.2% retrace
Failure to hold the 0.5592 higher low, then the 0.5589 asian low, resumes the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5575 3-week low
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
00:47 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in early Asia · RSI 53 · price 0.55955
Lower highs/lows from 0.5658; tight higher-low base above 0.5589.
A steady lower-high grind from 0.5658 took the pair through the NY low at 0.5603 as the USD recovered into NFP, and the slide ran to 0.5589 at the rollover low. Early Asia is printing small higher lows, but the bounce was rejected at the 0.5599 Asia high, where the 38.2% fib of the 0.5617–0.5589 leg sits just under the 0.5600 round number.
Support: 0.5589, 0.5575
Resistance: 0.55992, 0.5603
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5599 Asia high and 0.5600 round number shifts focus to the 0.5603 NY low / 50% fib
Loss of the Asia higher lows and a break of the 0.5589 rollover low resumes the downtrend toward the 3-week low at 0.5575
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and US NFP at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:32 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in early Asia · RSI 53 · price 0.55956
Lower highs from 0.5658; tight Asian range 0.5589–0.5599.
NZDUSD bled about 70 pips from Thursday's 0.5658 Asia high as the USD recovery gathered pace in NY hours. The pair printed a 0.5589 session low at the rollover. Early Asia is holding a tight 0.5589–0.5599 range, with a rejection at the asian high just under 0.5600 near the 23.6% of the NY drop fib, and RSI(14) is neutral at 53.
Support: 0.5589, 0.5575
Resistance: 0.5599, 0.5603, 0.5614
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5603 ny low reclaims 0.5600 and breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 0.5614 ny shelf next
Failure to hold the 0.5589 session low extends the downtrend toward the 0.5575 3-week low
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and US NFP at 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
NZ election on Saturday adds weekend gap risk into the Friday close
Lower highs from the 0.5658 Asia high; small range 0.5589–0.5599 in early Asia.
The decline from yesterday's 0.5658 Asia high ran through NY as the USD recovered ahead of NFP. It broke 0.5600 late and printed a 0.5589 swing low after the NY close. The early-Asia bounce was rejected at 0.5599, just under the 0.5600 psych level, and price sits below EMA20 with the lower-highs line intact.
Support: 0.5589, 0.5575
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56055, 0.56165
What it said to watch
M15 closes back above 0.5600 psych and the 0.56055 lower high would break the lower-highs chain and open the 0.56165 ny bounce high
Failure to hold the 0.5589 swing low puts the 0.5575 3-week low in play
US NFP Fri 13:30 UTC (f/c 65K) could materially shift this read
NZ election Saturday adds weekend gap risk into the Friday close
Lower-high chain from 0.5658 Asia high; bounce capped below 0.5600.
NZD/USD bled 69 pips from the 0.5658 Asia high through London and NY as the USD recovered on jobless claims and hawkish Fed talk. The pair lost 0.5600 to a session low at 0.5589 around the rollover. The early-Asia bounce stalled at 0.5599, just under the round number and near the 38.2% retrace of the 0.5617 swing high to session low leg, so the lower-highs line is still respected.
Support: 0.5589, 0.5575
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.5617
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5600 round number and the lower-highs line breaks the intraday downtrend
Failure to hold the 0.5589 session low exposes the 0.5575 3-week low
A reclaim of the 0.5617 swing high would negate the lower-high chain
Fed's Williams at 09:30 UTC and US NFP at 13:30 UTC Friday could materially shift this read