20:05 UTC
Downtrend, price below EMA20 and EMA50 · RSI 38 · price 0.56045
Lower highs and lower lows since Feb; summer range broken in Sept.
NZDUSD has been in a downtrend since the 0.6076 year high in February. A 0.5680–0.5995 range from April to August was capped twice at the 0.5994 lower high, then broke lower in September and made a cycle low at 0.5565 in October. Price sits below the falling W1 EMA20 (~0.574) and EMA50 (~0.580), so the macro filter points down. Widening Fed–RBNZ divergence is the driver: Wednesday's weak NZ jobs data and the blowout 165K NFP keep the pair pinned near 19-month lows, with RSI at 38, not yet oversold. The Feb–Oct decline is the reference move for any rebound; the 0.5710 Oct high is the first structural cap.
Support: 0.5565, 0.5500
Resistance: 0.5710, 0.5994, 0.6076
What it said to watch
- Weekly close below the 0.5565 cycle low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5500 psych level
- NZ election Sat 7 Nov with no clear majority: gap risk at Monday's open
- US CPI Tue 10 Nov could reprice Fed December hike odds and shift this read
- Weekly close above the 0.5710 Oct high would be the first higher high since August
- Reclaiming the W1 EMA50 near 0.580 would neutralise the lower highs structure