22:07 UTC
Range-bound, lower highs since Jan · RSI 39 · price 0.56242
Lower highs pressing on a flat 0.5565–0.5576 range floor.
Range-bound between roughly 0.5565 and 0.6100 since mid-2025. Highs have stepped lower from 0.6093 in January to 0.5994 in May and 0.5988 in August, while the floor has held flat near the November 2025 low and the October ytd low at 0.5565. Price sits below a flattening W1 EMA(50) near 0.5780, so the macro filter reads negative, and the week opens just above the 0.5600 psych level after the broad Q3 jobs miss undercut December RBNZ hike pricing. RSI near 39 is mid-range and not yet oversold, so the range floor is the operative test rather than momentum.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5565, 0.5500
Resistance: 0.5710, 0.5780, 0.5990
What it said to watch
- Weekly close below the 0.5565 ytd low breaks the range floor and opens the 0.5500 round number
- Loss of 0.5600 psych on a weekly closing basis would put the ytd low back under test
- Weekly close above the 0.5710 swing high, followed by a reclaim of the ema50 near 0.5780, would ease pressure on the floor
- Only a break of the lower highs line near 0.5990 would end the descending-high sequence
- US midterm results, ADP and ISM Services this week, plus repricing of December RBNZ hike odds after the jobs miss, could materially shift this read