NZD/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Tuesday, 3 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the NZD/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:47 UTC
Downtrend after data shock, rebound stalling · RSI 38 · price 0.5592
Range break lower, higher low under 0.5600 cap.
The NZ Q3 jobs miss broke the late-NY 0.5608–0.5612 range in early Asia session, dropping about 30 pips to a 0.5579 data low. The rebound was rejected at the 0.5600 psych level, near the 61.8% retrace. Price sits at 0.5592 above a 0.5584 higher low, RSI(14) 38, below both EMAs.
Support: 0.5584, 0.5579
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.5608
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5600 psych opens a retest of the 0.5608 ny low and old range base
Failure to hold the 0.5584 higher low puts the 0.5579 data low back in play; a break there extends the downside leg
US midterm results landing from 23:00 UTC could materially shift this read via the USD
23:32 UTC
Downtrend after data break, early bounce · RSI 30 · price 0.55887
0.5608–0.5631 day range broken lower; post-data base 0.5579–0.5589.
The 21:45 UTC NZ Q3 jobs miss knocked NZD/USD about 30 pips through the 0.5608 pre-data low, ending a day spent ranging 0.5608–0.5631. The 0.5579 jobs low has held into the Asia session, and price is now pressing the 0.5589 bounce high, just under the 38.2% of the jobs drop fib near 0.5591. RSI(14) is lifting off the low 20s to around 30, and ATR is inflated by the release bar.
Support: 0.55789, 0.5567
Resistance: 0.55893, 0.5600, 0.56077
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5589 bounce high and the 0.5591 fib level opens a retrace toward the 0.5600 round number, with EMA20 near 0.5597
Rejection below the 0.5600 round number keeps the break of the 0.5608 pre-data low intact
Loss of the 0.5579 jobs low exposes the 0.5567 ytd low
US midterm results landing overnight could materially shift this read via the USD
23:17 UTC
Downtrend, data-driven drop now stalling · RSI 26 · price 0.55847
Range break lower on NZ jobs miss; tight post-data consolidation below 0.5600.
The Q3 jobs miss at 21:45 UTC (unemployment 5.7%, employment -0.1%) knocked NZDUSD about 30 pips out of the late-NY range, through the 0.5600 round number and the pre-data level near 0.5611, to a 0.5579 data low. Early in the Asia session price is consolidating in a 0.5579–0.5587 band below the post-data high, with RSI(14) near 26 after the drop.
Support: 0.5579, 0.5567
Resistance: 0.5587, 0.5600, 0.5611
What it said to watch
A break of the 0.5579 data low extends the drop toward the 0.5567 ytd low
A close above the 0.5587 post-data high ends the tight consolidation; reclaiming the 0.5600 round number, also the 38.2% fib of the NY high–data low drop, would show the data move being faded
US midterm results landing overnight could move USD sharply and override the NZ jobs read
23:03 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after data drop · RSI 13 · price 0.55825
Lower highs from 0.5631, base at 0.5608 broken on the jobs data.
The Q3 jobs miss at 21:45 UTC knocked NZDUSD about 30 pips in one bar, through the 0.5600 psych level and the 0.5608 prior base. That ended a NY session of lower highs off 0.5631. Early Asia is holding a tight 0.5579–0.5587 band, between the data low and data high, with RSI(14) near 13, deeply oversold.
Support: 0.55789, 0.5567
Resistance: 0.5587, 0.5600, 0.5608
What it said to watch
A close back above the 0.5587 data high, then the 0.5600 psych, would mark the break as overextended
Failure to hold the 0.5579 data low exposes the 0.5567 ytd low
A return into the 0.5608 prior base would negate the range break
US midterm results from 23:00 UTC could jolt USD and shift this read
22:47 UTC
Downtrend after data shock, stabilising · RSI 23 · price 0.55826
Range break lower, tight post-data box 0.5579–0.5587.
The NZ Q3 jobs miss dropped NZDUSD about 30 pips through the 0.5611 pre-data base and the 0.5600 psych level, ending the day's 0.5602–0.5632 range. Early Asia is holding a tight 0.5579–0.5587 box with RSI(14) near 23, and the 61.8% retrace of the jobs drop sits at the 0.5600 psych level.
Support: 0.55789, 0.5567
Resistance: 0.5587, 0.5600, 0.56116
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5587 box high opens a retrace toward the 0.5600 psych / 61.8% fib
Failure to hold the 0.5579 box low exposes the 0.5567 ytd low
Reclaim of the 0.5611 pre-data base would negate the jobs breakdown
US midterm results from 23:00 UTC could materially shift this read via the USD
Late-NY range broken lower on data, gap below 0.5600.
NZ Q3 jobs missed across the board (UR 5.7%, employment -0.1%). The release knocked NZDUSD about 30 pips out of its 0.5608–0.5612 late-NY range to a 0.5579 data low, below the 0.5600 round number, after a day capped by rejection at the 0.5631 session high. RSI(14) near 13 is at an extreme as early Asia bars drift just above the low; ATR has expanded to roughly 4.5 pips on the data bar.
Support: 0.55792, 0.5567
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56077
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 0.5600 round number, also the 61.8% data drop fib, would mark the break as a potential false break
Failure to hold the 0.5579 data low exposes the 0.5567 ytd low
Return above the 0.5608 pre-data low puts price back inside the prior NY range
US midterm results flowing overnight could materially shift this read via the USD
22:14 UTC
Downtrend, impulsive leg lower · RSI 16 · price 0.55812
Data-driven breakdown below day range; lower highs since NY open.
The NZ Q3 jobs miss (UR 5.7% vs 5.5%) knocked NZDUSD 30 pips through the 0.5600 psych level and the 0.5602 Asian low in one bar. The next bar opened on a small gap to a fresh spike low at 0.5579. RSI(14) near 16 is deeply oversold, and the post-RBNZ low at 0.5584 (rbnz low) now caps price just overhead.
Support: 0.55792, 0.5567, 0.5560
Resistance: 0.5584, 0.5600, 0.56116
What it said to watch
A close back above the 0.5584 rbnz low and the 0.5600 psych level would undercut the breakdown read
A retrace toward the 0.5612 pre-data hi would mean a full reversal of the release leg
Failure to hold the 0.5579 spike low exposes the 0.5567 ytd low and the 0.5560 bear trigger
US midterm results flowing overnight could drive a broad USD move that overrides the data reaction
21:47 UTC
Downtrend, sharp extension on the data bar · RSI 14 · price 0.55948
Lower highs from the 0.5631 NY high, day range broken lower.
The NZ Q3 labour data release at 21:45 UTC sent NZDUSD 21 pips lower, through 0.5600 psych and the 0.5603 Asian low, to a 0.5590 spike low. The move came after a late-NY grind below the 0.5612 pre-data top, with the NY lower-highs line from the 0.5631 session high still intact. RSI(14) near 14 is deeply oversold on the release bar.
Support: 0.55902
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56025, 0.56116
What it said to watch
M15 closes back above 0.5600 psych and the 0.5603 Asian low would mark the data break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5590 spike low exposes the 0.5584 and 0.5567 YTD-low area flagged in the macro read
Reclaim of the 0.5612 pre-data top and the NY lower-highs line invalidates the downtrend read
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read via the USD
Lower highs and lower lows through NY; tight late-session coil above 0.5608.
NY stepped down from the 0.5631 session high in a lower-high chain, last capped at 0.5621. Price is coiling just above the 0.5608 swing low with RSI(14) near 42 and both EMAs overhead, while the Asian low at 0.5603 and 0.5600 psych sit below.
Support: 0.56077, 0.56025, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56208, 0.56315
What it said to watch
NZ Q3 labour data at 21:45 UTC: a soft print puts the 0.5603 asian low and 0.5600 psych in play, a strong one tests the descending trendline
M15 close above the 0.5621 lower high breaks the NY descending trendline and the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.5608 swing low extends the lower-low sequence
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could override the data reaction
21:17 UTC
Downtrend since NY open, momentum flattening · RSI 39 · price 0.56102
Lower highs and lower lows off 0.5631; compressing at the session low.
Rejection at the 0.5631 day high early in the NY session completed a double top with the 06:30 UTC peak. USD firmed on the US data beats, and lower highs at 0.5621 then carried price to a 0.56077 session low. Price is now compressing in a 3-pip band after NY close with RSI(14) near 39, sitting on the 0.5610 neckline below the broken 0.56125 prior low.
Support: 0.56077, 0.56025, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56125, 0.56208, 0.56315
What it said to watch
NZ Q3 labour data at 21:45 UTC can break the 0.5608–0.5611 compression either way
Close below the 0.56077 session low exposes the 0.56025 asia low and the 0.5600 round number
Recovery above the 0.56208 lower high breaks the NY descending trendline and the 50% fib of the NY decline (~0.5619)
Reclaiming the 0.56125 prior low eases immediate downside pressure
US midterm results from 23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
21:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, grinding lower into late NY · RSI 37 · price 0.56087
Double top at 0.5631, lower highs and lower lows since NY open.
Price was rejected twice at 0.5631, in early London and again at the NY open, forming a double top. NY has since printed a chain of lower highs capped near 0.5621 as USD firmed on the JOLTS and factory orders beats. Late NY slipped through the 0.5610 London low to a 0.5608 session low, with RSI(14) at 37, not oversold, and price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.56077, 0.56025, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5610, 0.5621, 0.5631
What it said to watch
NZ Q3 jobs, unemployment and LCI data at 21:45 UTC (~45 min) could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 0.5608 session low exposes the 0.5603 Asian low and the 0.5600 round number
Close back above the 0.5610 London low reopens the 0.5621 lower highs cap
Close above 0.5621 breaks the lower-high sequence; 0.5631 double top is the upper cap
US midterm results from 23:00 UTC can widen ranges in thin Asia trade
20:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend since NY open, momentum fading · RSI 43 · price 0.56102
Lower highs and lower lows below 0.5631 double top; Asian low intact.
The NY open rejected 0.5631, completing a double top with the London-morning high, and price has since stepped down through lower highs at 0.5621 to a late-session low of 0.56077 as USD firmed on US data beats and oil. The Asian low at 0.56025 and the 0.5600 psych level sit just below. Ranges have compressed to about 3 pips per bar ahead of the NZ data.
Support: 0.56077, 0.56025, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56208, 0.5631
What it said to watch
NZ Q3 labour data at 21:45 UTC: a soft print puts the 0.56025 Asian low and 0.5600 psych in play
US midterm results from 23:00 UTC can widen ranges overnight
M15 close above the 0.56208 lower high breaks the NY lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.56077 session low extends the lower-low sequence
20:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend since NY open · RSI 42 · price 0.56101
Lower highs and lower lows below the 0.5631 double top.
A second rejection at 0.5631 at the NY open completed a double top against the Asian high. Price has since printed lower highs at 0.5621 and a fresh session low at 0.56077 as USD firmed on strong US data. Late-NY trade is drifting just above the session low, with the Asian low at 0.56025 and the 0.5600 psych level beneath and ATR compressed to about 3 pips.
Support: 0.56077, 0.56025, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5621, 0.5631
What it said to watch
NZ Q3 labour data at 21:45 UTC: a soft print puts the Asian low at 0.56025 and the 0.5600 psych level in play
A close back above the 0.5621 lower high invalidates the NY lower-highs sequence
US midterm results from 23:00 UTC can widen ranges well beyond the current 3-pip ATR
Failure to hold the 0.56077 session low extends the lower-low chain
20:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since NY open · RSI 41 · price 0.56098
Lower highs and lower lows below the 0.5631 day high; testing 0.5610 floor.
Price was rejected at the 0.5631 day high in London and again at the NY open as USD firmed on JOLTS and factory-orders beats, leaving a chain of lower highs and lower lows into late NY. It is now pressing the 0.5610 broken floor just above a 0.5608 session low, with RSI(14) near 41 and ATR(14) around 3 pips.
Support: 0.56077, 0.56025, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56104, 0.56208, 0.5631
What it said to watch
A close back above the 0.5610 broken floor and the 0.5621 lower high would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.5608 session low exposes the 0.5603 Asian low and the 0.5600 round number
NZ Q3 labour data at 21:45 UTC and US midterm results from 23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
20:03 UTC
Intraday range, sliding to the floor late in NY · RSI 38 · price 0.56093
0.5602–0.5631 day range; lower highs since NY open, testing prior lows.
NZDUSD was rejected at the 0.5631 day high at the NY open and has printed lower highs since. Late-NY selling after the US JOLTS and factory orders beats is now pressing just below the 0.5610 prior lows, with the Asian low at 0.5603 and the 0.5600 round number beneath.
Support: 0.56025, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56102, 0.56208, 0.56315
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5603 asian low exposes the 0.5600 round number
Reclaim of 0.5610 prior lows returns price to the day range; a break of the lower highs line through the 0.5621 swing high negates the slide
NZ Q3 labour data at 21:45 UTC and US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
19:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend from the range top · RSI 37 · price 0.56096
Lower highs after triple rejection at 0.5631, testing 0.5610 neckline.
Three rejections at the 0.5631 range top, the last at the early-NY spike, have produced lower highs near 0.5621. Late NY is now pressing the 0.5610 neckline as the strong JOLTS and factory-orders beats weigh, outweighing the GDT beat. RSI(14) is near 37 and ATR about 3 pips, with the 0.5603 Asian low and the 0.5600 round number the next shelf below.
Support: 0.56025, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5610, 0.56208, 0.5631
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5610 neckline negates the break
Failure to hold the 0.5603 asian low exposes the 0.5600 round number
Close above the 0.5621 lower high and the trendline restores the range read
NZ Q3 labour data at 21:45 UTC (~2h) and US midterm results from 23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
19:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend since NY open, pressing lows · RSI 41 · price 0.56113
Double top at 0.5631, lower highs into 0.5610 neckline.
The NY open rejection at 0.5631 matched the Asia session high to form a double top. Price has slid since as the USD drew support from the JOLTS and factory orders beats. Late-NY rebounds stalled at the 0.5621 lower high, near the 50% of the NY decline, and price is back on the 0.5610 neckline with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 0.5610, 0.56025, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5621, 0.5631
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.5610 neckline confirms the double top and exposes the 0.56025 Asian low and the 0.5600 psych level.
A recovery above the 0.5621 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence; the 0.5631 double top caps above that.
NZ Q3 labour data at 21:45 UTC and US midterm results from about 23:00 UTC could materially shift this read.
19:17 UTC
Intraday pullback, compressing in late NY · RSI 44 · price 0.56155
Lower highs below 0.5631, holding 0.5610 floor.
The 0.5631 asian high rejected price for the third time in the first hour of NY, and the strong JOLTS and factory orders beats pushed NZD/USD back to the 0.5610 session low. Late NY, after London close, has formed a tight 0.5610–0.5621 range capped by a lower high. RSI(14) is 44, price sits just under EMA20 and ATR is near 3 pips, so the pair is compressed ahead of the NZ jobs release.
Support: 0.5610, 0.56025
Resistance: 0.5621, 0.5631
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5621 lower high breaks the descending trendline from 0.5631 and puts the asian high back in play
Failure to hold the 0.5610 session low extends the fib-measured pullback and exposes the 0.5603 asian low
NZ Q3 labour data at 21:45 UTC (UR f/c 5.5%, LCI f/c 0.5%) could materially shift this read
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC are a second volatility source overnight
19:03 UTC
Range after NY sell-off, momentum flat · RSI 53 · price 0.56172
Day high 0.5631 rejected at NY open; 0.5610–0.5621 range into late NY.
The 0.5631 day high capped price again at the NY open, and the drop to the 0.5610 NY low tracked USD strength after the JOLTS and Factory Orders beats. The late-NY rebound stalled at the 0.5621 late high, near 50% of the NY drop, with price sitting on EMA20 and ATR compressing to about 3 pips into the Asia handoff.
Support: 0.5610, 0.56025, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5621, 0.5631
What it said to watch
NZ Q3 labour data at 21:45 UTC (~3h) could break the 0.5610–0.5621 range
An M15 close above the 0.5621 late high opens a retest of the 0.5631 day high
A failure to hold the 0.5610 NY low exposes the 0.5603 Asia low and the 0.5600 psych level
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
18:46 UTC
Intraday range, lower highs since the day high · RSI 54 · price 0.56176
NY range 0.5610–0.5621 below the 0.5631 day high; lower-highs sequence intact.
A sharp rejection at the 0.5631 day high at 12:30 UTC pushed NZDUSD back into a 0.5610–0.5621 NY range. Lower highs keep capping that range, and price is parked near the 50% retrace of the Asia rally. Late-NY trade is quiet, with ATR near 3 pips, ahead of NZ Q3 labour data and US midterm results.
Support: 0.5610, 0.56025
Resistance: 0.5621, 0.56315
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.5621 ny highs breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 0.5631 day high
Failure to hold the 0.5610 ny low exposes the 0.5603 asian low
NZ Q3 jobs and LCI at 21:45 UTC (~3h) and US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
0.5610–0.5631 range; double top at 0.5631, flat NY lows.
Sellers rejected the NY open retest of the late-Asia 0.5631 high, forming a double top as the strong US data run (JOLTS beat) lifted USD. The drop stalled at the 0.5610 NY low, and late-NY trade is now back at the 0.5621 lower highs. That zone sits near the 50% fib of the NY drop, with RSI(14) neutral at 54 and price hugging EMA50.
Support: 0.5610, 0.56025, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5621, 0.5631
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5621 lower highs reopens the 0.5631 double top
Loss of the 0.5610 NY low exposes the 0.5603 Asian low and 0.5600 psych
NZ Q3 jobs at 21:45 UTC and US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC can materially shift this read
The NY open rejected the 0.5631 double top, matching the early-Asia high, as USD firmed on Iran/oil and the JOLTS beat. Since then the 0.5610 NY low has held three times beneath a chain of lower highs, with the lower high at 0.5621 sitting near the 50% retrace of the NY drop. RSI(14) is near 42 and ATR has compressed to about 4 pips into NZ jobs data.
Support: 0.5610, 0.56025
Resistance: 0.5621, 0.5631
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5610 NY low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 0.5603 asian low
M15 close above the 0.5621 lower high breaks the NY lower highs trendline and reopens the 0.5631 double top
NZ Q3 labour data at 21:45 UTC (~4h) and US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
17:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since NY open · RSI 46 · price 0.56148
Lower highs from 0.5631, base at 0.5610.
The first hour of NY rejected 0.5631, a double top with the Asian session high, and price slid to the 0.5610 session low. That low also held during the London open. Since then each bounce has stalled below the falling trendline, with the latest lower high at 0.5621, near the 50% fib of the NY drop. Late NY now drifts mid-range on a 4-pip ATR, despite the firmer NZD tone from the GDT beat.
Support: 0.5610, 0.56025
Resistance: 0.56212, 0.5631
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5610 session low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 0.56025 asian low
Close above the 0.5621 lower high breaks the trendline sequence and reopens the 0.5631 double top
NZ Q3 labour data at 21:45 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC are a USD volatility source
17:32 UTC
Intraday range, lower highs since NY open · RSI 46 · price 0.56161
Inside Asian range 0.5603–0.5631, compressing above 0.5610.
The NY open rally was rejected at the 0.5631 asian high, a double top with the late-Asia peak. Since then price has printed lower highs. Demand held the 0.5610 ny low at London open and twice in NY, and the GDT-led NZD firmness has faded as the USD steadied on oil and the data beats.
Support: 0.5610, 0.56025, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5621, 0.5631
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5610 ny low exposes the 0.5603 asian low and the 0.5600 psych level
Close above the 0.5621 lower high (near the 50% fib of the NY drop) breaks the lower-high sequence
NZ Q3 labour data at 21:45 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read
US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC overnight are a USD volatility risk
17:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend from day high, momentum flat · RSI 42 · price 0.56132
Lower highs in NY session pressing a repeatedly tested 0.5610 floor.
The NY session rejected the 0.5631 day high, forming a double top with the early-Asia peak, as USD firmed on strong JOLTS and factory orders data. That reversed NZD's GDT-driven gains, and lower highs near 0.5621 have since pressed price into the 0.5610 NY low, which has been tested four times since London with ATR compressing late in NY.
Support: 0.5610, 0.56025, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5621, 0.5631
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5610 NY low exposes the 0.56025 asia low and the 0.5600 round number
Reclaim of the 0.5621 lower high breaks the NY lower-high sequence, leaving the 0.5631 day high as the cap
NZ Q3 jobs data at 21:45 UTC and US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
17:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend inside a broader 24h range · RSI 39 · price 0.56127
Lower highs since the 0.5631 NY rejection, pressing the 0.5610 London low.
NZDUSD has held a 0.5602–0.5631 range over 24h. A third test of the 0.5631 session high was rejected near the NY open as USD firmed on the JOLTS and factory orders beats, and the pair has since printed a lower high at 0.5621. Price now sits on the 0.5610 London low, which has held twice this session, with RSI(14) near 39 and both EMAs overhead.
Support: 0.5610, 0.56025, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5621, 0.5631
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5610 london low opens the 0.56025 asian low and the 0.5600 round number
Reclaim of the 0.5621 lower high breaks the NY descending sequence
NZ Q3 labour data at 21:45 UTC (~5h) and US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
16:47 UTC
Intraday down-leg inside a 24h range · RSI 41 · price 0.56124
Lower highs since NY open, pressing range floor.
The NY open rejection at the 0.5631 range top, the third test in 24h, has erased the GDT-driven gains as firm JOLTS and Factory Orders kept USD supported. After London close, price is pressing the 0.5610 session low on a sequence of lower highs, with the 0.5603 asian low and 0.5600 psych level below.
Support: 0.5610, 0.56025, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5621, 0.5631
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5610 session low exposes the 0.5603 asian low and 0.5600 psych
Recovery above the 0.5621 lower high neutralises the NY lower-highs sequence and reopens the range top
NZ Q3 jobs data at 21:45 UTC (~5h) and US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
NY rejection at 0.5631 retest, basing at 0.5612 NY low.
NY open rejected the 0.5631 double top on firm US JOLTS and factory orders. It erased the Asia-to-London rally back to its 61.8% retracement. Since then price has held the 0.5612 NY low three times, while lower highs at 0.5621 cap bounces mid-NY session.
Support: 0.5612, 0.5610, 0.5603
Resistance: 0.5621, 0.5631
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5612 NY low exposes the 0.5610 London low and the 0.5603 Asian low
Reclaim of 0.5621 lower highs neutralises the post-rejection pullback
NZ Q3 jobs at 21:45 UTC and US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
16:17 UTC
Range-bound, lower highs since NY rejection · RSI 42 · price 0.56154
24h range 0.5603–0.5631; NY session compressing between 0.5612 and 0.5621.
NY session rejected the 0.5631 range top for a third time in 24h. Price has since printed lower highs near 0.5621 while holding a 0.5612 NY low tested four times, close to the 61.8% retracement of the Asian-to-London leg. Firm US JOLTS and factory orders kept the USD bid and erased the GDT-driven gains; RSI(14) is near 42 and ATR is about 5 pips.
Support: 0.5612, 0.5603, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5621, 0.5631
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5612 NY low exposes the 0.5603 Asian low and the 0.5600 psych level
Break above the 0.5621 lower high trendline reopens the 0.5631 range top
NZ Q3 jobs data at 21:45 UTC and US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
16:03 UTC
Range-bound, NY drifting lower inside the day range · RSI 48 · price 0.56182
0.5603–0.5631 day range; NY lower highs pressing a flat 0.5612 floor.
The NY open rejected the 0.5631 range top, the fourth failure there since Asia, as firm JOLTS and Factory Orders kept the USD bid. Since then the NY low near 0.5612 has held three times under a sequence of NY lower highs, with the 0.5621 lower high sitting at the 50% retrace of the NY drop. RSI(14) is neutral at 48 and ATR(14) is about 4.7 pips.
Support: 0.56123, 0.56025
Resistance: 0.56212, 0.5631
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.5612 NY low exposes the 0.5603 Asian low and the 0.5600 pivot
A close above the 0.5621 lower high breaks the NY lower-highs sequence, with the 0.5631 range top capping above
NZ Q3 labour data at 21:45 UTC and US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Inside 0.5603–0.5631 Asian range; lower high after NY rejection.
NZDUSD remains inside the 0.5603–0.5631 Asian range. Early in the NY session it was rejected at the 0.5631 range top, a level also tested during Asia, as firm JOLTS and factory orders data lifted the USD. Price has since slipped to the 0.5612 NY low, which has held on four tests, and sits near the 61.8% fib of the Asian low to range top leg, capped by a lower high at 0.5621.
Support: 0.56125, 0.56104, 0.56025
Resistance: 0.56212, 0.5631
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5612 ny low exposes the 0.5610 london low and the 0.5603 asian low, with the 0.5600 pivot just beneath
Recovery through the 0.5621 lower high returns focus to the 0.5631 range top
NZ Q3 labour data at 21:45 UTC and US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
The NY open was rejected at the 0.5631 range top, the third test of that cap in 24h, and price slid into a 0.5612 NY low just above the 0.5610 London low. The firm JOLTS and Factory Orders prints at 15:00 UTC capped the bounce at 0.5621, leaving a bounce high and NY lower highs, with price back below EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 0.56123, 0.56104, 0.56025
Resistance: 0.56212, 0.5631
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5612 ny low and 0.5610 london low exposes the 0.5603 asia low and the 0.5600 pivot
M15 close above the 0.5621 bounce high breaks the NY lower-highs sequence
Range top at 0.5631 is the area to watch for rejection or break
NZ Q3 labour data at 21:45 UTC and US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Inside Asian range 0.5603–0.5631; NY low at 0.5612.
The 13:30 UTC NY open met rejection at the 0.5631 Asian high, the third test of that level in the window. Price fell to a 0.5612 NY low, holding just above the 0.5610 London low. Price now sits near the 50% retrace of the Asian rally, below the ema20 around 0.5621, with RSI(14) near 41 as USD flows stay two-way ahead of the midterms.
Support: 0.56123, 0.56025
Resistance: 0.5621, 0.56315
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5612 NY low (61.8% of the Asian rally) exposes the 0.5603 asian low and 0.5600
Recovery above the 0.5621 ema20 puts the 0.5631 asian high back in play; a break there invalidates the range read
JOLTS (15:00 UTC) reaction still developing; NZ Q3 labour data at 21:45 UTC and US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
0.5610–0.5631 range since Asia session, range top rejected three times.
NZDUSD has held a 0.5610–0.5631 range since the Asia session. The range top rejected for a third time around the NY open at 13:30 UTC, and price slid back to 0.5612 before a partial bounce stalled at the 0.5621 bounce high. Price sits below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) near 42, as mild USD firmness into the midterms caps NZD's post-RBNZ bid.
Support: 0.5611, 0.5603, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5621, 0.5631, 0.5636
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5611 range low exposes the Asia low at 0.5603 and the 0.5600 psych pivot
Close above the 0.5631 range top invalidates the range read and brings the prior high at 0.5636 into view
Holding under the 0.5621 bounce high keeps price in the lower half of the range
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC lands on the current bar and could break the session range
NZ Q3 labour data at 21:45 UTC and midterm results from 23:00 UTC could materially shift this read
0.5603–0.5631 range since Asia; third rejection at range top.
NZDUSD has held a 0.5603–0.5631 range since the Asian session. The NY open marked a third rejection at the 0.5631 range top as USD firmed on renewed Iran headlines. The NY drop has stalled at the 0.5611 swing low, with RSI(14) at 37, not stretched, and price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.5611, 0.5603, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5620, 0.5631
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5611 swing low exposes the asian low at 0.5603 and the 0.5600 round number
A reclaim of the 0.5620 mid-range shifts focus back to the 0.5631 range top
US JOLTS and Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
NZ Q3 labour data at 21:45 UTC and US midterm results from ~23:00 UTC overnight are the larger range-break risk
14:03 UTC
Intraday range, sliding off the top · RSI 39 · price 0.56155
Third rejection at the 0.5631 session high; higher-low chain from the Asian low under test.
The NY open bar rejected the 0.5631 session high for a third time, an 11-pip reversal on the heaviest bar of the window. Price is now at 0.5615, testing the rising trendline from the Asian low and sitting between the 50% and 61.8% levels of the Asia-London rally fib, below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 39. The London low at 0.5610 is next, then the 0.5600 pivot that NZD positioning has leaned on since the RBNZ hold.
Support: 0.56104, 0.56025, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5620, 0.5631, 0.56362
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5610 london low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain from the 0.5603 asian low
Reclaim of the 0.5620 broken low puts price back in the middle of the 0.5603–0.5631 range
A clean break of the 0.5631 session high exposes the prior high at 0.5636
US JOLTS and Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC could break the range in either direction
NZ Q3 jobs data and US midterm results overnight put the 0.5600 pivot in play
13:47 UTC
Sideways, range-bound below Asian high · RSI 49 · price 0.56214
0.5610–0.5631 range since Asia; three failures at range top.
The range top at 0.5631, also the Asian high, rejected price again at the NY open. The 13:15 UTC bar reversed 11 pips to 0.5620, the intraday low that also held at 12:00. Price sits mid-range on a flat EMA50 as the USD trades two-way ahead of the midterms; the London low at 0.5610 caps the downside and the Asian low at 0.5603 sits beneath it.
Support: 0.5620, 0.5610, 0.56025
Resistance: 0.56315, 0.56362
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5620 intraday low exposes the 0.5610 London low
Close above the 0.5631 range top breaks the Asian high and opens the 0.5636 prior high
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
NZ Q3 labour data at 21:45 UTC and midterm results from ~23:00 UTC are the larger event risk
13:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows since London · RSI 61 · price 0.5628
HL chain from london low pressing Asian high.
Higher lows at the 0.5610 london low, 0.5617 and the 0.5620 higher low have carried NZD/USD back into the 0.5630 asian high area in the first hour of NY, helped by a softer USD ahead of the midterms. That ceiling capped pushes at 11:45 and 13:15 UTC; RSI(14) near 61, not stretched.
Support: 0.5620, 0.5610, 0.5603
Resistance: 0.5631, 0.5636
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5631 asian high exposes the 0.5636 prior high from Monday's NY session
Break of the 0.5620 higher low cuts the higher-low trendline and puts the london low at 0.5610, then the asian low at 0.5603, back in play
US JOLTS and Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC could shift this read; NZ Q3 jobs at 21:45 UTC and midterm results later tonight carry larger event risk
Higher lows off London low, capped below Asian high.
NZD is edging higher as the USD drifts into the midterms. Since the early London dip to the 0.5610 london low, price has printed higher lows at 0.5617 and the 0.5620 swing low, and now sits at 0.5626 in the London-NY transition. The 0.5629 session high and the 0.5632 asian high cap the move, RSI(14) is mid-range near 54 and ATR is under 4 pips.
Support: 0.5620, 0.56104, 0.56025
Resistance: 0.56292, 0.56315, 0.56362
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5632 asian high breaks the range and opens the 0.5636 prior high
Loss of the 0.5620 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and reopens the 0.5610 london low
A break below 0.5610 exposes the 0.5603 asian low
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC could shift this read; NZ Q3 jobs at 21:45 UTC and US midterm results are the larger risk
13:03 UTC
Sideways, compressing after London dip · RSI 54 · price 0.56235
Higher lows vs lower high inside the Asian range.
The Asian range of 0.56025–0.56315 is still intact. The London open sell-off stalled at the 0.56104 london low, and since then price has printed higher lows at 0.56165 and the 0.5620 swing low against a lower high at the 0.56292 swing high, coiling near 0.5623 into the London-NY transition with RSI(14) neutral around 54. A softer USD ahead of the US midterms has kept NZD dips shallow, with the prior high at 0.56362 capping above the asian high.
Support: 0.5620, 0.56104, 0.56025
Resistance: 0.56292, 0.56315, 0.56362
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56292 swing high breaks the lower-highs line and exposes the 0.56315 asian high, then the 0.56362 prior high
Failure to hold the 0.5620 swing low breaks the higher-lows sequence and reopens the 0.56104 london low, then the 0.56025 asian low
US JOLTS and Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC (~2h) could break the compression
NZ Q3 labour data at 21:45 UTC, overlapping with US midterm results, could materially shift this read
12:47 UTC
Range-bound, coiling after Asian rebound · RSI 52 · price 0.5622
Higher lows from 0.5603 against lower highs from 0.5631.
Asia rebounded from the 0.5603 low as NZD firmed on soft USD and RBNZ catch-up hike pricing, topping at the 0.5631 Asian high. London opened with a drop to the 0.5610 London low before demand returned. Price now coils between rising lows and lower highs, sitting on the 0.5620 round number into the London-NY transition with RSI(14) neutral.
Support: 0.5620, 0.56165, 0.56104
Resistance: 0.56292, 0.56315, 0.56362
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5629 London high and 0.5631 Asian high breaks the lower-highs sequence and exposes the 0.5636 prior high
Loss of the 0.5617 swing low, then the 0.5610 London low, breaks the rising-lows chain from 0.5603
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC could resolve the coil; NZ Q3 jobs data at 21:45 UTC is the larger event risk
12:32 UTC
Two-way, coiling after Asia rally · RSI 51 · price 0.56214
Higher lows from 0.5603 against lower highs from 0.5631, contracting range.
Asia rallied from 0.5603 to the 0.5631 Asian high. London was rejected there and dropped to the 0.5610 London low, and the lower high at 0.5629 has since kept the range contracting above the rising tl near 0.5615. Price is testing the 0.5621 swing low into the London-NY transition, sitting on its EMAs, with a soft pre-midterm USD keeping dips shallow so far.
Support: 0.5621, 0.5615, 0.5610
Resistance: 0.5629, 0.5631, 0.5636
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.5621 swing low exposes the rising tl near 0.5615 and the 0.5610 london low
Close above the 0.5629 lower high and the 0.5631 asian high breaks the coil toward Monday's 0.5636 prior high
US JOLTS and Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC (~2.5h) could resolve the contraction
NZ Q3 labour data at 21:45 UTC and US midterm results could materially shift this read
Higher lows off London low, still inside Asian range.
After the London open dip to the 0.56104 london low, price built higher lows at 0.56165 and 0.5621 along rising support. The 11:45 UTC push met rejection at the 0.56292 session high, just under the 0.56315 asian high. Price is mid-range into the London-NY transition, RSI(14) neutral near 53, with soft USD into the midterms underpinning the bounce.
Support: 0.5621, 0.56104, 0.56025
Resistance: 0.56292, 0.56315, 0.56362
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.56315 asian high breaks the Asian range and exposes the 0.56362 prior high
Loss of the 0.5621 higher low and rising support ends the recovery sequence and reopens the 0.56104 london low; below that sits the 0.56025 asian low
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
NZ Q3 jobs at 21:45 UTC and US midterm results add event risk later in the day
Buyers stepped in at the 0.5610 london low after the London open dip, and price has built higher lows since, last at 0.5621, as USD stays soft into the midterms. Price is back under the 0.5631 asian high with the 0.5636 prior high above. RSI(14) near 58, no extreme.
Support: 0.5621, 0.5610, 0.56025
Resistance: 0.56315, 0.56362
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5631 asian high breaks the Asian range and exposes the 0.5636 prior high
Loss of the 0.5621 higher low and the higher-low trendline turns focus back to the 0.5610 london low, with the 0.5603 asian low below
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC, NZ Q3 jobs at 21:45 UTC and US midterm tallies could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the London low, still inside the Asian range.
Late London: NZD/USD has retraced about 70% of the London-open drop from the 0.5631 Asian high to the 0.5610 London low. A soft USD has helped it print higher lows at 0.5616 and 0.5621. Price remains inside the 0.5603–0.5631 Asian range, with yesterday's 0.5636 prior high just above.
Support: 0.5621, 0.5610, 0.5603
Resistance: 0.5631, 0.5636
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5631 Asian high breaks the Asian range and brings the 0.5636 prior high into view
A break below the 0.5621 higher low, then the 0.5610 London low, ends the higher-low chain
Loss of the 0.5610 London low exposes the 0.5603 Asian low
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC, early in the NY session, could materially shift this read
NZ Q3 labour data at 21:45 UTC lands alongside US midterm results, a volatility risk after the NY close
11:32 UTC
Intraday range, rebound off London low · RSI 51 · price 0.56237
Higher lows inside the Asian range, below its top.
London open was rejected under the 0.5631 asia high and dropped to the 0.5610 london low. A higher low at 0.5617 has since lifted price back to the 61.8% retrace near 0.5624, still inside the 0.5603–0.5631 Asian range, with RSI(14) neutral near 51 and the USD soft on oil and midterm positioning.
Support: 0.56165, 0.56104, 0.56025
Resistance: 0.56247, 0.56315, 0.56362
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.5625 micro high and then the 0.5631 asia high breaks the Asian range and exposes the 0.5636 prior high
Loss of the 0.5617 higher low and the rising support turns the rebound into a lower high, with the 0.5610 london low and 0.5603 asia low back in focus
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC could shift the USD leg; NZ Q3 labour data at 21:45 UTC and midterm results are the larger risk to this read
11:17 UTC
Intraday range, mild recovery off London low · RSI 47 · price 0.56236
Higher low at 0.5617 inside the Asian range; capped below the London high.
Asia rallied from the 0.5603 Asian low to 0.5631 on a softer USD, but London open rejected that Asian high and dropped to the 0.5610 London low, a near-0.786 retrace of the Asia rally on the fib. A higher low at 0.5617 has since lifted price back toward the 0.5625 London high, with RSI(14) at 47 and price sitting just above a flat EMA20.
Support: 0.56165, 0.56104, 0.56025
Resistance: 0.56247, 0.56315, 0.56362
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.5625 London high reopens the 0.5631 Asian high and the 0.5636 prior high
Break of the 0.5617 higher low and the London higher-lows line puts the 0.5610 London low back in play; below that, the Asian low at 0.5603
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC (17:00 broker) could move USD during NY hours
NZ Q3 labour data at 21:45 UTC and US midterm results could materially shift this read
11:03 UTC
Intraday recovery inside Asian range · RSI 51 · price 0.56243
Higher lows since London open drop, pressing minor swing high.
London open rejected the 0.5631 Asian high and dropped to the 0.5610 London low, holding well above the 0.5603 Asian low. A higher low at 0.5617 has since carried price back to the 0.5625 swing high, still inside the Asian range, with a soft USD in the background and RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 0.56165, 0.56104, 0.56025
Resistance: 0.56247, 0.56315, 0.56362
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5625 swing high opens a retest of the 0.5631 Asian high, with the 0.5636 prior high above
Failure to hold the 0.5617 higher low exposes the 0.5610 London low and the 0.5603 Asian low
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and NZ Q3 jobs data at 21:45 UTC could materially shift this read
London lower high at 0.5624 over a 0.5617 higher low, inside the Asian range.
Asia ground up from the 0.5603 asian low into a double top at the 0.5631 asian high. The London open broke the 0.5625 neckline and dropped to the 0.5610 london low. The rebound stalled at the 0.5624 lower high, near the 61.8% retrace, and price is now mid-range above a 0.5617 higher low as soft USD on lower oil caps downside.
Support: 0.56165, 0.56104, 0.56025
Resistance: 0.5624, 0.56315, 0.56362
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5624 lower high reopens the 0.5631 asian high, with the 0.5636 prior high above it
Failure to hold the 0.5617 higher low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 0.5610 london low and 0.5603 asian low
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC, then NZ Q3 labour data at 21:45 UTC alongside US midterm results, could materially shift this read
10:17 UTC
Intraday down, lower highs since London open · RSI 40 · price 0.56173
Asian high rejected, London low at 0.5610 holding, lower high at 0.5624.
The Asia session rally on USD softness from lower oil capped at the Asian high at 0.5631. London failed there twice, then broke lower to the London low at 0.5610. The bounce stalled at a lower high at 0.5624, and price is back near 0.5617, around 50% of the Asia rally fib. It sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 0.56104, 0.56025, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5624, 0.56315, 0.56362
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.5624 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the Asian high at 0.5631 and the prior high at 0.5636 back in play
Failure to hold the London low at 0.5610 exposes the Asian low at 0.5603 and the 0.5600 round number
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC (~4.75h) could reset the session range
NZ Q3 labour data at 21:45 UTC, overlapping US midterm results, could materially shift this read
The overnight rally off the 0.5603 asian low, helped by a softer USD as oil slid, stalled just under the 0.5631 asian high. Price was rejected there into London, dipped to a 0.5610 london low near the 72% retrace of the asian rally fib, and has since recovered to 0.5622, pinned at EMA20 with a higher-low line intact.
Support: 0.5610, 0.56025, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56315, 0.56362
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.5631 asian high reopens the 0.5636 prior high
Break of the 0.5610 london low snaps the higher-low line and exposes the 0.5603 asian low and 0.5600 psych
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and NZ Q3 jobs at 21:45 UTC could materially shift this read
09:47 UTC
Intraday range, rebounding off London low · RSI 56 · price 0.56211
Inside Asian range 0.5603–0.5631; London rejection at range top, higher low at 0.5610.
London open was rejected at the 0.5631 asian high, the third failure there, and dropped to a 0.5610 london low that held well above the 0.5603 asian low. The rebound is testing the 50% retracement near 0.5621, with the 61.8% fib at 0.5623 and the EMA20 just overhead. An oil-led softer USD is underpinning NZD into tonight's jobs data.
Support: 0.56104, 0.56025, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56233, 0.56315, 0.56362
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5631 asian high breaks the range top and brings the 0.5636 prior high into view
Rejection at the 0.5623 61.8% fib keeps the London lower-high sequence intact
Loss of the 0.5610 london low exposes the 0.5603 asian low and 0.5600 psych
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC (~5h away) could materially shift this read
NZ Q3 labour data at 21:45 UTC and US midterm results land in the same window
09:32 UTC
Intraday range, London selling off Asian high · RSI 43 · price 0.56187
Asian rally 0.5603→0.5631 rejected at London open; lower high, bounce off 0.5610.
Asia rallied from the 0.5603 asian low to 0.5631 on a softer USD, but London opened with a rejection of that asian high, a small double top. The breakdown from 0.5626 ran to the 0.5610 london low, roughly the 78.6% fib of the Asian move, and price is now back near the 50% at 0.5617, below both EMAs.
Support: 0.56104, 0.56025, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5626, 0.56315
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5626 breakdown reopens the 0.5631 asian high
Failure to hold the 0.5610 london low exposes the 0.5603 asian low and the 0.5600 psych pivot
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC could shift the USD leg during NY session
NZ Q3 jobs data at 21:45 UTC is the larger event risk for this range
Lower highs since the Asian high; London low holding for now.
The Asian rally from 0.5603 stalled at the Asian high of 0.5631. Early London then dropped to a London low at 0.5610, just through the 61.8% retrace, and the bounce high at 0.5619 is capping so far with RSI(14) near 40. USD softness ahead of the midterms drove the overnight leg higher, and price remains inside the 24h band of 0.5603–0.5636.
Support: 0.5610, 0.5603, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5619, 0.5631, 0.5636
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5610 London low exposes the 0.5603 Asian low and the 0.5600 psych pivot
Reclaim of the 0.5619 bounce high and a push back above the 0.5631 Asian high revives the 0.5636 NY high
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC (~5.75h) could reset the session range
NZ Q3 labour data at 21:45 UTC alongside US midterm results could materially shift this read
09:02 UTC
Intraday range, London leg lower · RSI 40 · price 0.56169
Asian range 0.5603–0.5631; London rejected the top, lower high vs prior 0.5636.
London open was rejected at the Asian high near 0.5631, a lower high under yesterday's 0.5636 prior high. Price then fell to a 0.5610 London low, about 73% of the Asian rally that came as AUD/NZD slid after the RBA hike. It now sits near the 50% retrace at 0.5617, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 40 and ATR(14) about 5 pips.
Support: 0.5610, 0.56025, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56315, 0.56362
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5610 London low exposes the 0.56025 Asian low and the 0.5600 pivot
M15 close back above the 0.5631 Asian high reopens the 0.5636 prior high
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC is the next USD catalyst; NZ Q3 jobs data at 21:45 UTC and US midterm results could materially shift this read
Double top at the Asian high, sharp drop back inside the Asian range.
London open rejected the 0.5631 Asian high a second time, forming a double top. Price then dropped about 20 pips in two bars to 0.5611, past the 61.8% retracement of the Asian rally. It now trades below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 36, and the 0.5603 Asian low and 0.5600 psych pivot are the next references as the USD firms ahead of the midterms.
Support: 0.56025, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5618, 0.56315, 0.56362
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5618 asia shelf would neutralise the London-open breakdown
Failure to hold the 0.5603 asian low and 0.5600 psych confirms a lower low for the session
A move back through the 0.5631 asian high toward the 0.5636 ny high would void the double top
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC (~6h) and overnight midterm results could shift USD direction
NZ Q3 jobs data at 21:45 UTC (~13h) is the main NZD event risk
08:32 UTC
Asia rebound reversing in early London · RSI 41 · price 0.56189
Higher-low chain from 0.5603 broken below 0.5625; price at 50% retrace.
The Asia rebound from the 0.5603 asia low was capped three times at the 0.5631 session high into London open. The 08:15 UTC bar broke the 0.5625 band of broken lows, putting price on the 50% fib retrace near the 0.5617 swing low, with RSI(14) at about 41 as USD steadies ahead of the midterms.
Support: 0.56168, 0.56129, 0.56025
Resistance: 0.56245, 0.56315, 0.56362
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5617 swing low exposes the 0.5613 prior low (61.8% fib), then the 0.5603 asia low near the 0.5600 pivot
Recovery back above 0.5625 broken lows puts the 0.5631 session high, then the 0.5636 ny high, back in focus
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC, the US midterm results and NZ Q3 labour data at 21:45 UTC are all event risk for this read
08:17 UTC
Asia recovery stalling, early London drift lower · RSI 52 · price 0.56248
Capped at Asian high, testing intraday low.
Asia climbed off the 0.5603 asian low to the 0.5631 asian high as the USD slid with oil on US-Iran deal headlines. Early London has twice been capped there, and price is now pressing the 0.5625 intraday low at the 23.6% retrace of that leg. RSI(14) is neutral near 52 and price sits just under EMA20.
Support: 0.56245, 0.56204, 0.56025
Resistance: 0.56315, 0.56362, 0.56455
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5625 intraday low exposes the 0.5620 fib 38.2 and the 0.5617 50% retrace
Close above the 0.5631 asian high reopens the 0.5636 ny high and the 0.5646 prior high from yesterday's London session
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and US midterm results overnight could materially shift USD direction
NZ Q3 labour data at 21:45 UTC is the main event risk for this read
08:02 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling under session high · RSI 61 · price 0.56297
Higher lows from the Asian low, now compressing below 0.5631-0.5632.
The rally off the 0.5603 Asian low followed NZD's dip toward 0.5600 on the dovish-RBNZ hangover, and it has stalled into the London open. Three tests of the 0.5630-0.5632 session high have been capped, while higher lows have flattened around the 0.5624 london low; RSI(14) is near 61.
Support: 0.56245, 0.56204, 0.56025
Resistance: 0.56315, 0.56362, 0.56455
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56315 session high exposes yesterday's 0.56362 ny high and the 0.56455 prior high
Failure to hold the 0.56245 london low shifts focus to the fib 38.2 at 0.5620 and the 0.56025 asian low
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and NZ Q3 labour data at 21:45 UTC could materially shift this read
07:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at Asia high · RSI 61 · price 0.56282
Higher lows off 0.5603 Asia low, capped twice at 0.5631.
Asia rebounded from the 0.5603 asia low through the RBA decision as NZD outperformed AUD, building a higher-low chain toward 0.5631. Two tests of the asia high at 0.5631 were capped ahead of London open. Price sits on the asia hl line near 0.5628, with the 0.5624 higher low just below and RSI(14) at 61.
Support: 0.56245, 0.56168, 0.56025
Resistance: 0.56315, 0.56362, 0.56455
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.5631 asia high exposes the 0.5636 ny high and the 0.5646 prior high
Break of the 0.5624 higher low and the asia hl line ends the intraday higher-low chain
Below that, the 0.5617 swing low lines up with the 50% fib of the Asia rally
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC, NZ Q3 labour data at 21:45 UTC and US midterm results could materially shift this read
07:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling below Asia high · RSI 60 · price 0.56291
Higher lows from 0.5603 Asia low, compressing 0.5624–0.5632 at early London.
Asia rebuilt from the 0.5603 Asia low to the 0.5632 Asia high as the USD eased on falling crude, with lows rising along the rebound trendline. The early London dip to the 0.5624 London low was absorbed, leaving price pinned just under the Asia high with RSI(14) near 60.
Support: 0.56244, 0.56204, 0.56025
Resistance: 0.56315, 0.56362, 0.56455
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5632 Asia high opens yesterday's 0.5636 NY high, then the 0.5646 prior high
Failure to hold the 0.5624 London low breaks the rebound trendline and exposes the fib 38.2 near 0.5620
Loss of the 0.5620 fib 38.2 shifts focus back to the 0.5603 Asia low
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
NZ Q3 labour data at 21:45 UTC and US midterm results are the larger event risk later today
07:17 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling below Asian high · RSI 57 · price 0.5625
Higher lows off 0.5603 Asian low; pullback from 0.5631.
Asia set its low at 0.56025, just above 0.5600, as reports of US strikes on Qeshm briefly lifted USD. Price then built higher lows into a 0.5631 Asian high, which was rejected twice before London open. Price is now easing back toward the 38.2% fib near 0.5620, with the 0.5617 swing low below; the 0.5636 NY high and the 0.5646 prior-day high sit above.
Support: 0.56204, 0.56168, 0.56025
Resistance: 0.56315, 0.56362, 0.56455
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5617 swing low breaks the Asia higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.5603 Asian low
M15 close above the 0.5632 Asian high opens the 0.5636 NY high, then the 0.5646 prior-day high
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC, plus midterm and Iran headlines, could swing USD
NZ Q3 labour data at 21:45 UTC is the key event risk for the 0.5600 area
07:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend off Asian low, stalling at session high · RSI 65 · price 0.5628
Higher-high/higher-low chain from 0.56025, capped at Asian high 0.56315.
Early Asia pushed down to an Asian low at 0.56025, just above the 0.5600 handle, as Qeshm strike reports gave USD a safe-haven lift. Price then built a steady higher-low chain along a rising trendline into the 0.56315 Asian high, which capped it twice. London open finds price just under that high and inside yesterday's NY range, with RSI(14) at 65 and the 0.56244 swing low intact.
Support: 0.56244, 0.5617, 0.56025
Resistance: 0.56315, 0.56362, 0.56455
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56315 Asian high opens the 0.56362 NY high, then the 0.56455 prior high
Break of the 0.56244 swing low and rising trendline ends the higher-low chain and exposes the fib 50% at 0.5617
Loss of the 0.56025 Asian low puts the 0.5600 handle in play
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and midterm headlines could shift USD during NY hours
NZ Q3 labour data at 21:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian HH/HL chain capped at 0.5632 asian high, below Monday's NY high.
After Monday's fade from the 0.5646 london high and a failed NY high at 0.5636, NZD bottomed at the 0.5603 asian low. It then built a 29-pip Asian rally of higher lows, sparked by NZD outperformance after the 03:30 UTC RBA hike. Late in Asia ahead of London open, price is stalling under the 0.5632 asian high, where two tags were rejected, and RSI(14) has cooled to about 60.
Support: 0.56254, 0.56168, 0.56025
Resistance: 0.56315, 0.56362, 0.56455
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.5632 asian high opens the 0.5636 ny high, then the 0.5646 london high
Failure to hold the 0.5625 swing low breaks the Asian HH/HL chain and exposes the 0.5617 higher low near the 50% of the Asian rally
Loss of 0.5617 points back toward the 0.5603 asian low
US JOLTS and Factory Orders at 15:00 UTC, then NZ Q3 labour data at 21:45 UTC and US midterm results, could materially shift this read
06:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Asian low · RSI 74 · price 0.56307
HH/HL chain through Asia, pressing toward yesterday's NY high.
NZD climbed steadily through the Asia session from the 0.5603 Asian low as the dollar stayed soft with oil. The rally has built a clean HH/HL chain into 0.5631 ahead of London open, with RSI(14) near 74. Price sits just under yesterday's NY high at 0.5636, and the rising trendline runs through the 0.5617 swing low and the 0.5625 higher low.
Support: 0.56254, 0.56168, 0.56025
Resistance: 0.56362, 0.56455
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5636 NY high opens the 0.5646 London high from yesterday
Break of the 0.5625 higher low and rising trendline ends the Asian rally structure
Loss of the 0.5617 swing low returns focus to the 0.5603 Asian low
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and NZ Q3 labour data at 21:45 UTC could materially shift this read
06:17 UTC
Asia rebound, stalling under 0.5630 · RSI 66 · price 0.56261
Higher-low chain from Asian low, capped at Asian high.
NZD/USD bounced off the 0.56025 Asian low, just above 0.5600. The RBA hike lifted NZD against AUD and built a higher-low chain into the 0.5630 Asian high, where two tops have stalled with RSI(14) cooling to 66. Late in the Asia session, price is retesting the rising trendline from the Asian low, about 1h45m before London open.
Support: 0.56239, 0.56168, 0.56025
Resistance: 0.5630, 0.56362, 0.56455
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.56239 swing low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain
Close above the 0.5630 Asian high opens the 0.56362 NY high, then the 0.56455 London high
Loss of the 0.56168 higher low, near the 50% retrace of the Asian rebound, puts the 0.56025 Asian low and 0.5600 back in play
JOLTS at 15:00 UTC, then NZ Q3 jobs at 21:45 UTC and overnight US midterm results, could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain off 0.5603 session low, pressing 0.5630.
The 00:30 UTC drop on the Qeshm strike report found demand at a 0.5603 session low just above 0.5600. The Asia leg since then has printed steady higher lows at 0.5610, 0.5617 and 0.5622. Price is now retesting the 0.5630 session high into the London open, with RSI(14) near 66, firm but not stretched.
Support: 0.56219, 0.56168, 0.56025
Resistance: 0.5630, 0.56362, 0.56455
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5630 session high opens yesterday's 0.5636 NY high, then the 0.5645 day high
Close below the 0.5622 swing low breaks the higher-low line, with 0.5617 higher low and 0.5603 session low below
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and NZ Q3 jobs at 21:45 UTC could materially shift this read; midterm results land overnight
05:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, recovering from Asian low · RSI 69 · price 0.56275
Higher highs and higher lows since 0.5603 Asian low.
Early Asia dropped to a 0.5603 asian low just above 0.5600 as the Iran strike report gave USD modest haven support. Price has since rebuilt a 27-pip higher-high/higher-low chain along a rising trendline, with the 0.5630 session high tested late in Asia ahead of London open. RSI(14) near 69 is warm but not extreme; the ny high at 0.5636 and prior high at 0.5645 sit just overhead.
Support: 0.56219, 0.56163, 0.56025
Resistance: 0.5630, 0.56362, 0.56455
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5630 session high exposes the 0.5636 ny high and 0.5645 prior high
Break of the rising trendline and the 0.5622 swing low ends the higher-low chain
Loss of the 50% fib at 0.5616 puts the 0.5603 asian low and 0.5600 back in focus
London open liquidity could test the Asian rebound; US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and midterm results could materially shift this read
05:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Asian low, stalling · RSI 67 · price 0.56247
HH/HL chain from 0.5602 asian low, testing 0.5627 prior pivot.
The Asia session reversed from the 0.5602 asian low into a steady HH/HL chain. NZD extended after the RBA hike, firming against AUD, and price now holds above the 61.8% retrace of the ny high–asian low fib but is stalling at the 0.5627 prior pivot. RSI(14) near 67 is firm but not stretched, with London open about 90 minutes away.
Support: 0.5620, 0.5610, 0.56025
Resistance: 0.5627, 0.56362, 0.56455
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5627 prior pivot opens the 0.5636 ny high, then the 0.5645 london high
A break of the 0.5620 pivot low and the asia rising trendline would end the HL chain, exposing the 0.5610 rba bar low
Loss of the 0.5602 asian low resumes the decline and puts 0.5600 in play
London open often tests the Asian range; US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and midterm results could shift USD and this read
05:17 UTC
Intraday rebound, higher highs and higher lows since the Asian low · RSI 71 · price 0.5626
HH/HL chain off 0.5603 pressing the session high, inside the 0.5603–0.5646 24h range.
The Asian session flushed to the 0.5603 asian low, just above the 0.5600 psych level, then rebounded in a clean HH/HL chain to the 0.5627 session high. That move reclaimed the 61.8% retracement of the drop from the 0.5636 ny high, with RSI(14) near 71 and the bounce tracking a softer USD on oil weakness tied to Iran-deal headlines. The 0.5646 london high marks the top of the 24h range.
Support: 0.5617, 0.5603, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5627, 0.5636, 0.5646
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.5627 session high opens the 0.5636 ny high; rejection there keeps price inside the range below the 0.5646 london high
A break of the 0.5617 higher low and rising support ends the Asian rebound chain
Loss of the 0.5603 asian low exposes the 0.5600 psych level
US midterm results through the London open could swing the USD and shift this read; NZ Q3 jobs data lands at 21:45 UTC
05:03 UTC
Intraday rebound after Asia flush, momentum still positive · RSI 65 · price 0.56232
Higher-low chain off 0.5603 session low, probing 50% retracement of the prior slide.
The Asia session flushed to a 0.5603 session low before a higher-low chain lifted price back to the 50% retracement of the 0.5646–0.5603 slide, with RSI(14) near 65 and not stretched. Price is now pressing the 0.5627 rollover high with the 0.5617 higher low underneath, as softer USD on oil and Iran headlines backs the bounce into London open.
Support: 0.56168, 0.56025, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56266, 0.56362, 0.56455
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5627 rollover high puts the 0.5636 NY high and the 61.8% retracement near 0.5629 in play
Acceptance above the 0.5636 NY high opens the 0.5646 prior high
A break of the 0.5617 higher low and the rebound trendline ends the higher-low sequence
Loss of the 0.5603 session low exposes the 0.5600 psych level
US midterm results overnight and NZ Q3 labour data at 21:45 UTC could materially shift this read
04:47 UTC
Intraday recovery, pressing the Asian high · RSI 65 · price 0.56213
Higher-low chain off the 0.5603 Asian low, now at the range top.
Asia dipped to 0.5603, just shy of the 0.5600 handle, before a rejection there. NZD then outperformed after the RBA hike, chaining higher lows back to the 0.5623 Asian high. RSI(14) is 64 and price sits above EMA20/50, with the Asian high capping so far.
Support: 0.56168, 0.56099, 0.56025
Resistance: 0.56226, 0.56272, 0.56362
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5623 Asian high opens the 0.5627 swing high, then the 0.5636 NY high
Loss of the 0.5617 pullback low and the 0.5610 higher low breaks the recovery leg
Break of the 0.5603 Asian low exposes the 0.5600 handle
London open at 07:00 UTC; US midterm results and NZ Q3 jobs at 21:45 UTC could materially shift this read
04:32 UTC
Intraday recovery off the Asia low, momentum flattening · RSI 64 · price 0.56206
HH/HL chain from 0.56025, pressing the Asian range high.
The Asia session drop stalled at the 0.56025 asian low, just above the 0.5600 psych level. NZD then climbed in a HH/HL chain as it outperformed AUD after the RBA hike, with USD also soft on lower oil. Late in Asia, price is capped at the 0.56226 asian high, which sits near the 61.8% fib of the slide from the 0.56362 ism high.
Support: 0.56181, 0.56025, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56226, 0.56272, 0.56362
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.56226 asian high opens the 0.56272 late ny high, with the 0.56362 ism high beyond
A break of the 0.56181 micro low ends the HL chain and exposes the 0.56025 asian low and the 0.5600 psych level
US midterm results and the NZ Q3 labour data at 21:45 UTC could materially shift this read
04:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, Asia rebound in progress · RSI 59 · price 0.56201
Lower highs and lows since London; Asia bounce testing 50% retrace.
Lower highs from the 0.5636 NY high and the 0.5627 late NY high carried price to an Asian low at 0.5603 as the Qeshm strike reports lifted USD. Demand held just above 0.5600 and price has rebounded to the 0.5621 session high, near the 50% retrace of the 0.5636–0.5603 decline. RSI(14) is 59.
Support: 0.56129, 0.56025
Resistance: 0.56214, 0.56272, 0.56362
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5621 session high and the 0.5627 late ny high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure back below the 0.5613 prior low puts the 0.5603 asian low and 0.5600 back in play
US midterm results flow from ~05:00 UTC and could materially shift this read; NZ Q3 jobs data at 21:45 UTC
04:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, Asia bounce testing the lower-high sequence · RSI 59 · price 0.56194
Lower highs from 0.5646; stepped higher lows off 0.5602 now pressing the Asian high.
Asia broke the prior low at 0.5613 and dipped to 0.5602, holding just above 0.5600 psych. A stepped bounce along rising support has since retraced most of the Asian drop and is testing the Asian high near 0.5623. The 24h sequence of lower highs from the 0.5646 London high, through the 0.5636 NY high and the 0.5627 lower high, is still intact, with NZD heavy after the RBNZ hold.
Support: 0.5613, 0.56025, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56226, 0.5627, 0.56362
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5623 Asian high and the 0.5627 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence
Loss of rising support and a return below the 0.5613 prior low puts the 0.5602 Asian low and 0.5600 psych back in play
US midterm results flowing from ~05:00 UTC could jolt USD before London open
NZ Q3 labour data at 21:45 UTC is the next major NZD-specific risk
Lower highs since London high 0.5646; Asian low 0.5603 holding above 0.5600.
Kiwi gave back the whole London rally to 0.5646 through NY hours. Early Asia broke lower on a firmer USD tied to the Qeshm strike reports and printed an Asian low at 0.5603, just above the 0.5600 psych pivot. The bounce from there was rejected at a 0.5619 bounce high, right on the descending trendline and the 38.2% fib of the 0.5646–0.5603 drop.
Support: 0.56025, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56192, 0.56362
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5619 bounce high and descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain; the NY high at 0.5636 is the next reference
Loss of the 0.5603 Asian low puts the 0.5600 psych pivot in play
US midterm results flow from ~05:00 UTC (~1h) and could materially shift this read
03:32 UTC
Downtrend, Asia bounce stalling · RSI 43 · price 0.5613
Lower highs from 0.5646; Asia low 0.5603, retest of broken NY low.
Asia session broke below Monday's NY low near 0.5613 and printed a 0.5603 asia low just above the 0.5600 psych level. This extends the lower-high sequence from London's 0.5646 peak as NZD stays heavy after the RBNZ hold. Price has since bounced back into the broken low, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the Asia drop (0.5613–0.5615), with RSI(14) around 43.
Support: 0.5603, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5615, 0.5622, 0.5627
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 61.8% fib near 0.5615 keeps the Asia drop intact; a close above the 0.5622 asia high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the sequence
A close above the 0.5627 lower high would undo the post-London downtrend structure
Failure to hold the 0.5603 asia low puts the 0.5600 psych level in play; acceptance below it exposes 0.5584
US midterms today and Qeshm/oil headlines could swing USD; NZ Q3 jobs data due 21:45 UTC (~18h)
03:17 UTC
Downtrend, small bounce off session low · RSI 41 · price 0.5610
Lower highs from 0.5646; Asian session made a lower low at 0.5603.
Lower highs since yesterday's 0.5646 London peak. The Asian session broke the 0.5613 prior low and printed a 0.5603 session low, and RBNZ-hit NZD is lagging even as the USD softens. Price is now bouncing to the 38.2% of the Asian leg fib, just under EMA20, with 0.5600 psych untested.
Support: 0.56025, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56129, 0.56226
What it said to watch
A close back above the 0.5613 prior low, then the 0.5623 Asian high, breaks the lower-highs trendline and the downtrend read
A break of the 0.5603 session low and 0.5600 psych confirms the lower-low sequence
US midterm headlines through the day and NZ Q3 jobs at 21:45 UTC (~18h) could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower, lower highs since Monday NY; tight base 0.5603–0.5610.
Early Asia broke the Asian range from the 0.5622 asia high and slid through Monday's 0.5613 ny low to a 0.5602 session low, just above the 0.5600 psych pivot, with NZD still heavy after the RBNZ hold. Price has since compressed between 0.5603 and 0.5610, with the lower-highs line from Monday NY still capping.
Support: 0.56025, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5613, 0.56226
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5613 ny low would turn the Asian break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5602 session low exposes the 0.5600 psych level
A break of the lower-highs line near 0.5619 would undercut the downtrend read
US midterm voting from 05:00 UTC and Qeshm/oil headlines could shift USD during London
NZ Q3 labour data at 21:45 UTC is the bigger event risk for this pair
Early Asia dropped from the 0.5622 Asia high through yesterday's 0.5609 prior low, printing a session low at 0.5603 just above the 0.5600 psych level. The last five bars are compressing around 0.5606 with RSI(14) near 31, consistent with the post-RBNZ NZD heaviness noted in the digest.
Support: 0.56025, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5610, 0.56226
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.5600 psych extends the lower-low sequence toward 0.5584
Reclaim of 0.5610 prior low (38.2% fib) would mark the Asia break as a false break
Break above 0.5622 Asia high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
US midterm voting from 05:00 UTC; any Iran/oil headline could shift USD into London
02:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Monday's London peak · RSI 31 · price 0.56061
Lower-high chain from 0.5636; Asian session broke below prior-day low.
Monday's London spike to 0.5646 was fully retraced, and the lower highs line from 0.5636 kept capping rallies; the Asian session then broke under the prior low at 0.5609 from the 0.5623 Asian high, with NZD lagging post-RBNZ. Price is now pinned just above the session low at 0.5603 and the 0.5600 psych handle, with RSI(14) near 31 and the 0.5617 swing high marking the last bounce of the Asian drop fib.
Support: 0.56025, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56086, 0.56174, 0.56226
What it said to watch
Sustained trade below 0.5600 psych extends the lower-low sequence past the session low
Recovery back above the 0.5609 prior low turns the break into a false break
Close above the 0.5617 swing high and the lower highs line breaks the intraday downtrend
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and midterm headlines could shift USD; NZ Q3 jobs at 21:45 UTC is the larger NZD risk
02:03 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since London peak · RSI 33 · price 0.56068
Asian range broken lower, session low just above 0.5600.
Asia session broke below the 0.5613–0.5623 overnight range at 00:30 UTC. It cleared yesterday's NY low at 0.56129 and printed a session low at 0.56049, extending the lower-high sequence from the 0.5646 London peak. NZD stays heavy after the RBNZ hold, sitting 5–7 pips above the 0.5600 psych pivot with RSI(14) near 33, not yet oversold.
Support: 0.56049, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56129, 0.56226
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5600 psych level exposes fresh downside and confirms the breakdown
Recovery back above the 0.56129 NY low would turn the Asian break into a false break
Close above the lower-highs trendline and the 0.56226 Asian high invalidates the intraday downtrend
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and midterm headlines could shift the USD leg; NZ Q3 jobs data in ~20h
01:47 UTC
Downtrend, Asia extending lower · RSI 37 · price 0.56084
Lower highs since NY peak; Asian range broken lower.
Early Asia broke the 0.5614–0.5621 Asian range lower and took out Monday's 0.5609 prior low, printing a session low at 0.5605 as NZD stays heavy after the RBNZ hold. Lower highs from the 0.5636 NY peak remain intact, and price is stalling just under the old prior low with RSI(14) near 37 and the 0.5600 round number below.
Support: 0.56049, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56086, 0.56207
What it said to watch
Failure to reclaim the 0.5609 prior low keeps the session low at 0.5605 and the 0.5600 round number in play
A close back above the 0.5621 asian high and the lower highs trendline invalidates the breakdown read
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and midterm headlines could shift USD during NY hours; NZ Q3 jobs (21:45 UTC) is the bigger NZD test
Asian range broken lower; new session low printed below Monday's low.
Lower highs run from Monday's 0.5646 London high through 0.5636 to the 0.5623 asian high. Early Asia broke the range lower and took out the 0.5609 monday low, printing a 0.5605 session low as NZD stays heavy after the China PMI miss. RSI(14) at 35 is not stretched, and the 0.5600 psych level the digest flags as the key pivot sits 8 pips below.
Support: 0.56049, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56086, 0.56226
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.5609 (monday low) returns price to Monday's range and softens the lower-low read
Failure to hold the 0.5605 session low and the 0.5600 psych level extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5584 post-RBNZ low
Reclaim of the 0.5623 asian high breaks the lower-highs trendline
US midterm results and NZ Q3 labour data (21:45 UTC) could materially shift this read
01:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Monday's London high · RSI 41 · price 0.56093
Asian range broken lower, prior-day low taken.
Lower highs have run from Monday's 0.5646 London high, and early Asia broke its 0.5614–0.5622 range lower. Price undercut the prior-day low to a 0.5607 session low, with RSI(14) near 41 and EMA20 overhead. China PMI contraction and the -7.9% building permits print fit the softer Kiwi tone, with the 0.5600 psych level next below.
Support: 0.56074, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5614, 0.56226, 0.56272
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5607 session low exposes the 0.5600 psych pivot
M15 close back above the 0.5614 asian low returns price to the broken range
Recovery through the 0.5622 asian high and the lower-high trendline invalidates the downtrend read, with the 0.5627 lower high next
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and midterm results could materially shift this read
NZ Q3 labour data Tue 21:45 UTC is the next NZD-specific risk
01:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 44 · price 0.56132
LH/LL chain from 0.56455; Asia session retesting prior low.
Lower highs have run steadily from the London high at 0.56455 through the 0.56362 NY high and the 0.56272 swing high. The descending trendline capped Asia at 0.56226, then price dropped to a 0.56099 asian low, retesting yesterday's prior low near 0.5609, as weak China PMI and NZ building permits outweighed the earlier USD/oil dip. Price is below both EMAs and RSI(14) is near 44, not oversold.
Support: 0.56099, 0.56086, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56226, 0.56272, 0.56362
What it said to watch
M15 break below the 0.56099 asian low and 0.56086 prior low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5600 round number
M15 close above the 0.56226 lower high and trendline breaks the descending sequence; 38.2% fib near 0.5624, then 0.56272 swing high and 0.56362 ny high
US midterm polling from ~05:00 UTC and JOLTS at 15:00 UTC could shift USD tone; NZ Q3 labour data at 21:45 UTC is the larger event risk
00:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since NY · RSI 48 · price 0.5615
Lower highs and lower lows from 0.5636; Asia testing prior low.
NZD has carved lower highs under a falling trendline since the 0.5636 NY high, which printed just after the ISM release, with soft China PMI weighing on the Kiwi. Early Asia sold off to a 0.5610 session low, just above yesterday's Asian low at 0.5609, and the move met a rejection there. Price is back at 0.5615, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 48.
Support: 0.56099, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56226, 0.56272, 0.56362
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.5610 session low breaks the double test of yesterday's Asian low and exposes the 0.5600 psych pivot flagged in the macro digest.
Reclaiming the 0.5623 lower high and the falling trendline would stall the downtrend read; the 0.5627 swing high comes next.
Acceptance above the 0.5636 NY high would undo the lower-high sequence.
US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and midterm results through USD/oil could materially shift this read; NZ Q3 jobs data follows at 21:45 UTC.
00:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend from NY high, Asia stabilising · RSI 60 · price 0.56203
Lower highs since 15:15 UTC, Asia basing above 0.5613.
NZD faded from the 0.5636 NY high into a 0.5613 Asia low, with lower highs printed as weak China PMI and soft NZ building permits weighed on the Kiwi. Early Asia is grinding higher in a tight 0.5614–0.5621 band, just above EMA20 and pressing EMA50 from below. RSI(14) sits near 60.
Support: 0.56125, 0.56086
Resistance: 0.56272, 0.56362
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5627 swing high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Failure to hold the 0.5613 Asia low exposes the 0.5609 prior low
US midterm results, JOLTS at 15:00 UTC and Iran/oil headlines can jolt USD through the session
NZ Q3 jobs data at 21:45 UTC is the next major risk to this structure
00:17 UTC
Downtrend from NY high, flattening in early Asia · RSI 53 · price 0.56194
Lower highs since the NY high; tight 0.5613–0.5620 base above the late NY low.
Monday's London rally to the 0.56455 day high, driven by softer USD and crude, fully unwound. NY printed lower highs at the 0.56362 NY high and the 0.56272 swing high before a late NY low at 0.56129. Early Asia is compressing in a 0.5613–0.5620 band under the lower-high trendline, with RSI(14) neutral near 53 and ATR(14) at about 4 pips.
Support: 0.56129, 0.56086, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56272, 0.56362, 0.56455
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56272 swing high breaks the lower-high trendline and the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 0.56129 late NY low exposes the 0.56086 Asia low from Monday
A break of the Asia low puts the 0.5600 round number in play, the pivot flagged in the NZD digest
US midterm results overnight and US JOLTS at 15:00 UTC could shift USD and override this range
NZ Q3 labour data at 21:45 UTC is the next NZD-specific catalyst for a December hike repricing
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.5636 NY high; early Asia drifting just above the late NY low.
London broke the Asian range high to a 0.5646 london high as USD and crude slid on Iran diplomacy, then fully reversed for a false break. Lower highs along a descending trendline from the 0.5636 ny high have since taken price to a 0.5613 late ny low, and early Asia is holding just under EMA20 with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 0.56129, 0.56086, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56272, 0.56362, 0.56455
What it said to watch
A break of the 0.5613 late ny low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5609 asian low
An M15 close above the 0.5627 lower high and the descending trendline invalidates the downtrend read, with the 0.5636 ny high above
A move through the 0.5600 psych level, the key NZD pivot in the digest, would mark a fresh leg lower
NZ Q3 jobs data (Tue 21:45 UTC) and overnight US midterm results could materially shift this read