Lower highs since London high; drifting back inside Monday's Asian range.
London lifted NZD out of the Asian range to a 0.5645 London high as the USD and crude slid on US-Iran diplomacy headlines. Every bounce since has printed lower highs: 0.5636 at the NY high, then 0.5631 and 0.5627. Price faded to a 0.5613 late NY low and now sits at 0.5618 in early Asia, back inside Monday's 0.5609–0.5627 Asian range. RSI(14) is near 44 and ATR has compressed to about 4 pips; the 22:00 UTC rollover spike is thin-liquidity noise.
Support: 0.56129, 0.56086, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56272, 0.56362, 0.56455
What it said to watch
Break of the 0.5613 late NY low and the 0.5609 Asian low extends the lower-low sequence toward 0.5600 psych
M15 close above the 0.5627 Asian high breaks the lower-high chain; the 50% retracement of the London high–late NY low drop sits at 0.5629, with the 0.5636 NY high next
US midterm results and NZ Q3 labour data (Tue 21:45 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the London high, early Asia drifting near the lows.
The London rally to 0.56455, driven by the softer USD and oil slide, was rejected and has fully unwound. NY printed lower highs at the 0.5636 ny high and the 0.5627 lower high. Price is now pinned just below EMA20 near 0.5618 in thin early Asia trade, holding above the 0.5613 ny low with ATR(14) at roughly 3.9 pips.
Support: 0.56129, 0.56086, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56272, 0.56362
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.5613 ny low and then the 0.5609 asia low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5600 psych level
A close above the 0.5627 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the descending sequence, opening the 0.5636 ny high
US midterm results and JOLTS at 15:00 UTC could shift the USD leg; NZ Q3 jobs data (Tue 21:45 UTC) is the next NZD-specific test of the 0.5600 area
23:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 41 · price 0.56159
Lower highs 0.5646 → 0.5636 → 0.5627, pressing late NY low above Asian low.
London's rally to the 0.5646 London high, driven by USD and crude weakness on Iran diplomacy, was fully unwound. NY was rejected at a lower NY high of 0.5636 and again at a lower high of 0.5627, and price has drifted back to 0.5616, just above the 0.5613 late NY low and the 0.5609 Asian low. Price is below both EMAs as the new Asia session opens, with RSI(14) near 41 and ATR(14) about 4 pips, so ranges are thin.
Support: 0.56129, 0.56086, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56272, 0.56362, 0.56455
What it said to watch
A break of the 0.5613 late NY low and 0.5609 Asian low exposes the 0.5600 round number, the pivot flagged in the NZD digest
A close above the 0.5627 lower high and the descending lower-highs line breaks the intraday sequence and reopens the 0.5636 NY high
US midterm results and Iran/oil headlines overnight can shift USD quickly; NZ Q3 jobs on Tue 21:45 UTC is the next NZD-specific catalyst
23:03 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 45 · price 0.56169
Lower-high chain from 0.5646, drifting at the lows.
London broke above the Asian range to a 0.5646 london high as USD and crude slid, but the move fully reversed. NY printed a lower high at 0.5636, and the 0.5627 lower high was rejected again on the rollover spike. Price now sits just above the 0.5613 late NY low, with the 0.5609 Asian low below.
Support: 0.56129, 0.56086
Resistance: 0.56272, 0.56362, 0.56455
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5627 lower high breaks the lower-high chain; the 0.5636 NY high is next above
Failure to hold the 0.5613 late NY low exposes the 0.5609 Asian low
US JOLTS (15:00 UTC), US midterm results and NZ Q3 labour data (Tue 21:45 UTC) could materially shift this read
22:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 48 · price 0.56172
Lower highs and lower lows from the London high, back inside the Asian range.
Lower highs since the 0.56455 London high: the 0.56362 NY high and the 0.56272 evening bounce both faded, leaving price near 0.5617 in the lower half of the Asian range. The slide tracks the soft China PMI and weak NZ permits read; RSI(14) is neutral near 48 below EMA20 in thin post-NY trade.
Support: 0.56125, 0.56086, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56272, 0.56362
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.56125 swing low exposes the 0.56086 Asian low, then the 0.5600 round number
M15 close above the lower-highs trendline (~0.5622) and the 0.56272 lower high breaks the sequence
US midterms and JOLTS Tue, then NZ Q3 labour data (~23h), could materially shift this read
22:32 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since London peak · RSI 41 · price 0.56148
Lower highs at 0.5646/0.5636/0.5627; price near session low.
The London rally from the Asian low at 0.5609 to the 0.5646 London high has fully unwound. A lower-highs sequence formed at the 0.5636 NY high and the 0.5627 lower high, in line with the soft China PMI and NZ building permits weighing on NZD. The rollover spike to 0.5627 was rejected, and price sits near the 0.5613 session low as the new Asia session opens.
Support: 0.56125, 0.56086, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56272, 0.56362, 0.56455
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5609 asian low confirms a lower-low and puts the 0.5600 psych level in play
Close back above the 0.5627 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and neutralises the downtrend read
Session low at 0.5613: a hold keeps the pair ranging below the lower high
US midterms Tue and NZ Q3 labour data Tue 21:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from NY high 0.56362, holding above 0.56129 NY low.
London's push above the Asian range high to the 0.56455 London high was fully rejected. NY then carved lower highs from 0.56362 down to a 0.56129 late low as USD clawed back losses. Early Asia is bouncing into the 38.2% fib of that NY decline with price pinned at the EMA20, and the 22:00 UTC rollover spike to 0.56266 stalled at the 0.56272 lower high.
Support: 0.56129, 0.56086, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56272, 0.56362, 0.56455
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56272 lower high breaks the NY descending sequence and exposes the 0.56362 NY high
Failure to hold the 0.56129 NY low puts the 0.56086 Asian low and 0.5600 psych level in play
NZ Q3 jobs data (Tue 21:45 UTC) and the US midterms on Tuesday could materially shift this read
22:05 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since NY · RSI 39 · price 0.56149
London spike fully reversed; NY lower highs and lower lows, price back inside the Asian range.
The London-open spike to the 0.56455 London high was rejected and fully unwound. NY then printed lower highs at the 0.56362 NY high and the 0.56272 lower high, and late-session selling made a 0.56129 swing low. NZD stayed heavy after China's PMI miss, with price back inside the Asian range near 0.5615, below both EMAs and RSI(14) around 39.
Support: 0.56129, 0.56086, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56272, 0.56362, 0.56455
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.56129 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.56086 Asian low
Failure to hold the Asian low brings the 0.5600 round number into play, which the digest flags as the key near-term level
M15 close above the 0.56272 lower high breaks the NY lower-highs trendline; the 0.56362 NY high and 0.56455 London high sit above
NZ Q3 jobs (Tue 21:45 UTC) and the US midterms on Tuesday could materially shift this read
21:47 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since London peak · RSI 40 · price 0.56158
Lower highs from NY high, back inside Asian range near its base.
London broke the Asian range high and ran to a 0.56455 london high, then faded. NY printed lower highs from the 0.56362 ny high and slid late to a 0.56129 session low as the USD clawed back losses, leaving price at 0.56158 in early Asia just above the 0.56086 asian low, with RSI(14) near 40 and ATR(14) around 3.4 pips.
Support: 0.56129, 0.56086, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56272, 0.56362, 0.56455
What it said to watch
NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC lands in the current bar and could jolt thin early-Asia liquidity
M15 close below the 0.56129 session low exposes the 0.56086 asian low, then the 0.5600 round number
Close above the 0.56272 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.56362 ny high back in view
NZ Q3 jobs and the US midterms on Tuesday could materially shift this read
21:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London peak · RSI 28 · price 0.56134
Lower highs and lower lows; late-NY break below the 0.5617 swing low.
Since the early-London 0.5646 peak, NZD/USD has printed lower highs: the 0.5636 NY high, then a late-NY lower high at 0.5627. Late NY broke the 0.5617 swing low to 0.5613, with RSI(14) near 28 and price under both EMAs. The pair sits just above the 0.5609 Asian low, and NZD stays heavy after the China PMI miss despite broader USD softness.
Support: 0.56086, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5617, 0.56272, 0.56362
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5617 broken low negates the late-NY breakdown
Failure to hold the 0.5609 Asian low exposes the 0.5600 psych level flagged as the key near-term line
M15 close above the lower-highs trendline (~0.5624) breaks the lower high sequence toward the 0.5636 NY high
NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC tonight, and Q3 unemployment/employment Tue 21:45 UTC, could materially shift this read
21:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since London peak · RSI 31 · price 0.56139
London's run to 0.5646 faded. NY printed a lower high at 0.5636, then a rejection at the 0.5627 lower high, and late-NY selling cut through the 0.5617 broken low to 0.5613. Price now sits just above the Asian low at 0.5609 with RSI(14) near 31, NZD heavy after the RBNZ hold and China PMI miss.
Support: 0.56086, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56165, 0.56272, 0.56362
What it said to watch
Break of the 0.5609 Asian low exposes the 0.5600 round number
Close back above the 0.5617 broken low neutralises the late-NY breakdown
Close above the lower-high trendline near 0.5627 ends the sequence below the NY high at 0.5636
NZ Building Permits 21:45 UTC tonight; NZ Q3 jobs and US midterms Tue could reset the read
21:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London peak · RSI 34 · price 0.56154
Lower-high chain from 0.5636 NY high; price slipping below NY session lows.
London's rally from the 0.5609 Asian low to 0.5646 fully reversed. NY has since printed a lower-high chain off the 0.5636 NY high, and price is now at 0.5615, under the 0.5617 NY low and just below the 78.6% retracement of the London rally, with RSI(14) near 34 and not yet oversold. The slide fits the soft NZD tone after China's PMI miss and the RBNZ hold, with the 0.5609 Asian low the next reference.
Support: 0.56086, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56165, 0.56272, 0.56362
What it said to watch
A close back above the 0.5617 NY low would mark the dip under it as a false break
A close above the 0.5627 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.5609 Asian low exposes the 0.5600 round number
NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC into the Asia session open could shift this read. NZ Q3 jobs (Tue 21:45 UTC) and the US midterms are the larger event risk
20:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London peak · RSI 37 · price 0.56196
Lower highs from 0.56455 and 0.56362, holding a double-tap swing low at 0.56165.
Late NY session. The London run from the Asian low to 0.56455 has faded, and NY printed a lower high at 0.56362 after the ISM beat, with lower highs since as the China PMI miss weighs on the Kiwi. Buyers stepped in twice at the 0.56165 swing low, near the 78.6% fib, while the 20:00 UTC spike to 0.56272 met rejection and price is pinned near 0.5620.
Support: 0.56165, 0.56086, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56272, 0.56362, 0.56455
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.56165 swing low exposes the 0.56086 asian low and the 0.5600 psych level
M15 close above the 0.56272 rejection and the lower highs trendline breaks the intraday sequence and reopens the 0.56362 ny high
NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC may jolt thin post-NY liquidity
US midterms Tuesday and NZ Q3 jobs (Tue 21:45 UTC) could materially shift this read
London leg fully unwound; NY lower highs pressing on a flat base.
Late NY session. The London leg from the 0.56086 Asian low, set after the China PMI miss, topped at the 0.56455 London high and has been fully retraced. NY has printed lower highs from the 0.56362 NY high, the 20:00 UTC spike met rejection at 0.56272, and price sits at 0.5621, below the 61.8% of the London leg fib (0.5623). The 0.56165 NY low has held three tests, close to the 78.6% level.
Support: 0.56165, 0.56086, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56272, 0.56362, 0.56455
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56272 rejection high breaks the NY lower-high sequence and puts the 0.56362 NY high back in play
Failure to hold the 0.56165 NY low exposes the 0.56086 Asian low, then the 0.5600 round number
NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC lands in thin Asia-open liquidity, and ATR near 4 pips leaves room for outsized wicks
NZ Q3 jobs and US midterms on Tue could materially shift this read
20:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 38 · price 0.56212
London break above Asian range failed; lower highs into late NY, basing near 0.5617.
London's push above the Asian range to the 0.5646 london high reversed fully. NY then capped at 0.5636 for a lower high, and late NY slid to a 0.5617 base as the China PMI miss weighed on NZD. A late spike to 0.5627 was rejected at the 38.2 fib, and price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 0.56165, 0.56086
Resistance: 0.56272, 0.56362, 0.56455
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5617 ny low exposes the 0.5609 asian low
M15 close above the 0.5627 38.2 fib breaks the lower-high chain; the 0.5636 ny high is next
NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC could jolt the thin post-NY tape
US midterms Tue and NZ Q3 jobs Tue 21:45 UTC loom as larger event risk
Lower highs from 0.5646 London high, floor at 0.5617.
China's PMI miss drove an Asian slide to the 0.5609 Asian low. The London rally to the 0.5646 London high has since faded to the 78.6% retracement, and NY printed a 0.5636 NY high, then a 0.5628 lower high. Three late-NY probes of the 0.5617 NY low were rejected. Price is pinned at the 61.8% level just under EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral at 47.
Support: 0.56165, 0.56086, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5628, 0.56362, 0.56455
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5617 NY low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 0.5609 Asian low, then the 0.5600 round number
Close above the 0.5628 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline, with the 0.5636 NY high and 0.5646 London high above
NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC and Tuesday's US midterms could materially shift this read
19:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through late NY · RSI 32 · price 0.56182
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.5636 NY high; London gains fully retraced.
The London rally off the 0.5609 Asian low topped at 0.5646 (london high) and fully faded. NY's push after the ISM release was rejected at the 0.5636 ny high, and price has since printed a lower high at 0.5628 and a 0.5617 session low that sits on the 78.6% fib of the Asia-London leg. The Kiwi is heavy after the China PMI miss and the RBNZ hold, with price below both EMAs and RSI(14) near 32.
Support: 0.56165, 0.56086
Resistance: 0.5628, 0.56362, 0.56455
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.5617 session low breaks the 78.6% fib and exposes the 0.5609 asian low
A close back above the 0.5628 lower high and the falling NY trendline invalidates the lower-high sequence
Only a reclaim of the 0.5636 ny high reopens the 0.5646 london high
NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC lands into the thin Asia open
Tomorrow's US midterms and NZ Q3 jobs keep event risk elevated
19:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 34 · price 0.56186
Lower highs and lower lows from 0.5646, back inside Asian range.
London's break above the Asian range failed at the 0.5646 london high. Since then NY has printed lower highs at the 0.5636 ny high and the 0.5628 lower high, and a fresh session low at 0.56165 sits below the London-session lows; the post-ISM pop faded despite the beat. Price sits mid-Asian range with RSI(14) near 34, while the China PMI miss weighed on NZD in Asia.
Support: 0.56165, 0.56086, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5628, 0.56362, 0.56455
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.56165 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5609 asian low
Loss of the asian low exposes the 0.5600 round number
M15 close above the 0.5628 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline read and re-opens the 0.5636 ny high
NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC, then Tuesday's NZ Q3 jobs data and US midterms, could materially shift this read
19:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend from London high · RSI 37 · price 0.56198
Lower highs since London, testing NY swing low.
London rallied out of the Asian range to a London high at 0.56455 and then faded. NY printed lower highs at the 0.56362 NY high and 0.5628 as the USD clawed back early losses around the ISM beat. Late in the NY session, price sits on the 0.5618 swing low, roughly a 70% retrace of the Asia-London leg, with RSI(14) near 37 and ranges compressing to about 3–4 pips per bar.
Support: 0.56175, 0.56086, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5628, 0.56362, 0.56455
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.56175 swing low confirms a lower low and exposes the 0.56086 Asia low
Loss of the Asia low puts the 0.5600 psych level in play
Close above the 0.5628 lower high breaks the lower-highs chain and reopens the 0.56362 NY high
NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC tonight; NZ Q3 jobs (Tue 21:45 UTC) and US midterms could materially shift this read
19:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 31 · price 0.56186
London rally fully retraced; NY lower highs from 0.5636 now pressing the London low.
London's rally to the 0.5646 london high fully reversed. After a rejection at the 0.5636 ny high following the ISM beat, NY has stepped down in lower highs as USD clawed back early losses, and late in NY price is sitting on the 0.5618 london low with RSI(14) near 31. The Asian low at 0.5609 is the next reference below. That area sits around the 78.6% retracement of the Asian low to London high leg.
Support: 0.56178, 0.56086, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56314, 0.56362, 0.56455
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5618 london low exposes the 0.5609 asian low and the 0.5600 psych level
Recovery above the 0.5631 ny lower hi breaks the NY downtrend line and neutralises the lower-high sequence
NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC tonight. NZ Q3 jobs data and the US midterms on Tue could materially shift this read.
18:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since NY high · RSI 32 · price 0.56187
Lower-high chain from 0.5636, pressing session low.
Late NY: price has stepped down from the 0.5636 NY high through a lower high at 0.5628 and is now testing the 0.5618 session low, sitting between the 61.8% and 78.6% fib levels of the Asian low to London high rally. The London spike to 0.5646 has been almost fully retraced. The China PMI miss and USD's recovery from early losses frame the soft tone, and RSI(14) near 32 is not yet extreme.
Support: 0.56175, 0.56086, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5628, 0.56362, 0.56455
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5618 session low exposes the 0.5609 Asian low and the 0.5600 round number
M15 close back above the 0.5628 lower high breaks the descending lower-high line from the NY high
NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC and Tue's Q3 jobs data plus US midterms could materially shift this read
18:32 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since London peak · RSI 34 · price 0.56204
Lower highs pressing into 0.5620 range floor.
Late NY session. NZDUSD has given back most of the London rally from the 0.5609 asian low to the 0.5646 session high, with lower highs at 0.5636 (ny high) and 0.5628 now pressing into the 0.5620 range floor, tested for a fourth time today. Price sits below the 61.8% retracement at 0.5623 and below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 34, as USD recovered after the ISM Manufacturing beat.
Support: 0.56198, 0.56184, 0.56086
Resistance: 0.5628, 0.56362, 0.56455
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5620 range floor and 0.5618 swing low exposes the 0.5609 asian low
M15 close above the 0.5628 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and neutralises the pullback read
Reclaim of the 0.5636 ny high is needed to reopen the 0.5646 session high
NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC tonight and NZ Q3 labour data Tue 21:45 UTC could materially shift this read
18:17 UTC
Sideways after rejected London spike, mild downside drift · RSI 41 · price 0.56245
Narrowing NY range with lower highs and higher lows near 61.8% retrace.
After a Sunday gap lower, Asia slid to the 0.5609 asian low on the soft China PMI. London then ran to the 0.5646 london high, which was fully rejected. In NY, after the ISM beat, the pair has compressed between a 0.5636 ny high / 0.5631 lower high and higher lows off the 0.5618 london low. Price sits at 0.5625, just under both EMAs and on the 61.8% retrace, with RSI(14) at 41 and ATR at about 4 pips.
Support: 0.56216, 0.56184, 0.56086
Resistance: 0.56314, 0.56362, 0.56455
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.5622 ny low and 0.5618 london low breaks the higher-low sequence and reopens the 0.5609 asian low
Close above the 0.5631 lower high, then the 0.5636 ny high, invalidates the compression read and puts the 0.5646 london high back in view
Loss of the 61.8% retrace at 0.5623 shifts the London rally to a full retracement
NZ Building Permits 21:45 UTC tonight, then NZ Q3 jobs and US midterms Tuesday, could break the late-NY range
18:03 UTC
Range after failed London rally, lower highs in NY · RSI 42 · price 0.56244
0.5618–0.5636 range since late London; lower highs at 0.56362 and 0.56314.
London broke the Asian range high at 0.56295 and ran to a London high of 0.56455. The move was then fully rejected as USD clawed back losses after the ISM beat. Late in the NY session, price is drifting inside a 0.5618–0.5636 range below both EMAs. A lower high at 0.56314 sits under the NY high of 0.56362, and the 17:45 UTC swing low of 0.56216 is holding near the 61.8% retrace of the Asian-low-to-London-high leg.
Support: 0.56216, 0.56184, 0.56086
Resistance: 0.56314, 0.56362, 0.56455
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.56184 range low exposes the 0.56086 asian low
Close above the 0.56314 lower high breaks the descending-highs sequence and puts the 0.56362 ny high back in play
NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC; NZ Q3 jobs and US midterms on Tuesday are the bigger risk to this range
London false break of Asian high, NY lower high, back near London low.
London broke the asian high at 0.5630 and ran to a london high of 0.5646, then reversed fully. NY printed a lower high at 0.5636 around ISM and is now fading toward the london low at 0.5618, with NZD heavy on the RBNZ hold and weak China PMI. Price sits under both EMAs with RSI(14) near 43, about 64% back through the asian low–london high leg.
Support: 0.56184, 0.56086
Resistance: 0.56295, 0.56362, 0.56455
What it said to watch
M15 close below the london low at 0.5618 opens a test of the asian low at 0.5609
Close back above the asian high at 0.5630 and the ny high at 0.5636 breaks the lower-high sequence
Senior Loan Officer Survey at 19:00 UTC and NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC are the near-term event risk
US midterms and NZ Q3 jobs on Tue 21:45 UTC carry the larger move risk
17:32 UTC
Two-way intraday, compressing after London reversal · RSI 54 · price 0.56271
Lower highs vs higher lows since London high, coiling near 50% retrace.
The London open rally from the 0.5609 Asian low was rejected at the 0.5646 London high and fully retraced to 0.5618 by 10:45 UTC as the USD clawed back early losses. Since then NY has printed a lower high at 0.5636 (NY high) and another at 0.5631, against higher lows at the 0.5620 NY low and 0.5626 late NY low. Price is compressing at the 50% retrace near 0.5627 after London close, with ATR(14) around 4 pips.
Support: 0.5626, 0.5620, 0.5609
Resistance: 0.5631, 0.5636, 0.5646
What it said to watch
Break below the 0.5626 late NY low, then the 0.5620 NY low, would expose the 0.5609 Asian low
M15 close above the 0.5631 lower high and 0.5636 NY high breaks the descending trendline from the London high, with 0.5646 next
Senior Loan Officer Survey at 19:00 UTC and NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC; US midterms Tuesday could materially shift this read
Failed London breakout, late-NY compression 0.5626–0.5636.
London broke the Asian range high near 0.5630 and ran to the 0.5646 london high. That move was fully retraced to 0.5618 as USD clawed back early losses, a false break of the Asian range. NY then built higher lows off the 0.5620 range floor, capped at the 0.5636 ny high after ISM, and late NY is compressing above the 0.5626 ny low with RSI(14) near 56 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 0.5626, 0.5620
Resistance: 0.56362, 0.56455
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5636 ny high reopens the 0.5646 london high
Loss of the 0.5626 ny low breaks the higher lows and exposes the 0.5620 range floor
Close below the 0.5620 range floor puts price back below the 61.8% of the Asia-London leg
NZ Building Permits 21:45 UTC is a minor risk; US midterms and Tuesday's NZ Q3 jobs are the larger volatility events
17:03 UTC
Intraday range, lower high after London spike · RSI 53 · price 0.56289
Lower high at 0.5636 vs 0.5646; higher lows holding above 0.5620.
London broke above the Asian range and ran to the 0.5646 London high before fading to the 0.5620 NY low. The USD recovery after the ISM Manufacturing beat produced a rejection at the 0.5636 NY high, a lower high on the London rally fib. Price is now compressing between that level and the 0.5626 late NY low, near the 50% retracement, with RSI(14) neutral at 53.
Support: 0.5626, 0.5620, 0.5609
Resistance: 0.5636, 0.5646
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5636 NY high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 0.5646 London high
Loss of the 0.5626 late NY low exposes the 0.5620 NY low; below that, the 0.5609 Asian low
NZ Building Permits 21:45 UTC is low impact; NZ Q3 labour data and US midterms on Tue could materially shift this read
16:47 UTC
Intraday range after failed London rally · RSI 52 · price 0.56266
Lower highs from 0.56455, higher lows from 0.56184, range contracting.
London pushed through Friday's 0.5639 high to the 0.56455 london high, then fully unwound to the 0.56184 swing low. The ISM-led USD recovery left a rejection at the 0.56362 ny high, a lower high under the lower-highs line. Late in the NY session, price is coiling at the 0.5627 mid-retrace of the Asia-London leg, with RSI(14) flat near 51 and EMA20/EMA50 converged around price.
Support: 0.5626, 0.56184, 0.56086
Resistance: 0.56305, 0.56362, 0.56455
What it said to watch
Break of the 0.5626 ny low brings the 0.56184 swing low into focus; a loss there ends the higher-low sequence
M15 close above the 0.56305 intraday cap and the lower-highs line puts the 0.56362 ny high back in play
Below 0.56184, the 0.56086 asian low is the session floor
Acceptance back above the 0.56455 london high would invalidate the false-break read
NZ building permits at 21:45 UTC are minor; US midterms and NZ Q3 jobs on Tuesday could materially shift this read
London false break above Asian range fully reversed; NY building higher lows under 0.5636 session high.
London broke above the Asian range to the 0.5645 london high, then gave back the full move to 0.5618 as USD clawed back early losses. In the NY session the pair has built higher lows off the 0.5620 swing low but met rejection at the 0.5636 session high, near the 61.8% of the London drop fib. Price sits mid-range at 0.5630 with RSI(14) neutral at 54 and ATR(14) around 5 pips.
Support: 0.5626, 0.5620, 0.5609
Resistance: 0.56362, 0.56455
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.5636 session high opens a retest of the 0.5645 london high
A break of the 0.5626 pullback low breaches the NY higher-lows line; losing the 0.5620 swing low exposes the 0.5609 asian low
NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC is minor; US midterms and NZ Q3 jobs on Tuesday are the larger event risk for this range
16:17 UTC
Two-way, no directional trend · RSI 55 · price 0.56287
NY range 0.5620–0.5636 after a failed London rally above Friday's high.
Asia slid to the 0.5609 asian low on the weak China PMI, then London ran to the 0.5645 london high before failing back through the 0.5641 friday high and unwinding the whole leg to 0.5618. In the NY session buyers held the 0.5620 ny lows twice, but the post-ISM spike was capped at the 0.5636 ny high, a lower high. Price is mid-range near 0.5629, just above the 0.5626 pullback low, with RSI(14) at 55.
Support: 0.5626, 0.5620, 0.5609
Resistance: 0.5636, 0.5641, 0.5645
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5636 ny high breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts 0.5641–0.5645 back in focus
A break below the 0.5626 pullback low and then the 0.5620 ny lows opens a retest of the 0.5609 asian low
Goolsbee (16:15 UTC) on December hike odds could jolt the USD side
NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC lands during the Asia session
16:03 UTC
Sideways after London reversal, mild NY higher lows · RSI 50 · price 0.5628
NY session range 0.5618–0.5636 with higher lows, below London high.
London pushed through the 0.5641 Friday high to a 0.5646 London high, met rejection and gave back most of the London rally to the 0.5618 London low, inside its 61.8–78.6% retracement. NY has printed higher lows near 0.5620 while supply caps at the 0.5636 NY high. Price sits mid-range at 0.5628 with RSI(14) neutral near 50, as the USD recovery and the weak China PMI keep NZD heavy.
Support: 0.5620, 0.56184, 0.56086
Resistance: 0.56362, 0.56411, 0.56455
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5636 NY high reopens the 0.5641 Friday high and 0.5646 London high
Failure to hold the higher lows trendline near 0.5620 and the 0.5618 London low exposes the 0.5609 Asian low
Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC and NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC could shift this read; US midterms on Tue are the larger risk
NY base at 0.5620 with rising highs, capped at 0.5636.
London lifted price from the 0.5609 Asian low, set after the weak China PMI, to a 0.5645 London high, then gave most of it back. NY has held a base near 0.5620 and printed rising lows, but the push saw rejection at the 0.5636 NY high and price sits near 0.5630, around the 38.2% of the Asia-London leg. RSI(14) is flat at 52 and ATR is about 5 pips, so ranges are compressed.
Support: 0.5628, 0.5620, 0.5609
Resistance: 0.5636, 0.5645
What it said to watch
M15 close below the rising lows near 0.5628 returns focus to the 0.5620 NY base
Failure to hold the 0.5620 NY base reopens the 0.5609 Asian low
Close above the 0.5636 NY high exposes the 0.5645 London high
Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC; any pushback on December Fed hike odds could shift the USD side of this read
15:32 UTC
Intraday recovery, below London high · RSI 57 · price 0.56304
NY higher lows near 0.5620; retesting Asian high.
London broke the Asian high at 0.5630 and ran to the London high at 0.5646, then fully reversed to 0.5618. NY built rising lows off the 0.5620 NY lows and lifted to a 0.5636 NY high, near the 61.8% of the London drop, through mixed ISM data. Price is now retesting the Asian high, RSI(14) 57.
Support: 0.56295, 0.5620, 0.56086
Resistance: 0.56362, 0.56455
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5636 NY high (61.8% of London drop) opens the 0.5646 London high
Failure to hold the 0.5630 Asian high returns focus to the 0.5620 NY lows
Break of the rising lows line below 0.5620 exposes the 0.5609 Asian low
Fed's Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could shift the USD side of this read
15:16 UTC
Intraday range, higher highs in NY · RSI 57 · price 0.56299
London spike to 0.5646 fully faded; NY pressing 0.5635 off a flat 0.5620 base.
London broke the Asian range high and ran to 0.5646 before sliding back to the 0.5620 range floor, which has held five times since late morning. NY has printed higher highs up to the 0.5635 NY high, but the ISM-hour bar faded from there back to 0.5630, under a lower high versus the London high.
Support: 0.5620, 0.56086
Resistance: 0.5635, 0.56455
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5635 NY high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 0.5646 London high
Failure to hold the 0.5620 range floor exposes the 0.5609 Asian low
Fed's Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could shift USD tone and this range read
NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC lands in thin Asia trade
15:03 UTC
Intraday recovery off range floor, pressing fib resistance · RSI 58 · price 0.56331
Break above 0.5620–0.5632 midday range; lower high vs London peak still intact.
Asia slid to the 0.5609 asia low on the weak China PMI. London ran to a 0.5646 london high, then gave the move back to a 0.5620 range floor that held four times. NY has broken the 0.5632 range top and is testing the 61.8% fib of the London drop at 0.5635 as ISM lands, with RSI(14) near 58 and the friday high at 0.5641 overhead.
Support: 0.56315, 0.5620, 0.56086
Resistance: 0.5635, 0.56411, 0.56455
What it said to watch
ISM Mfg PMI (15:00 UTC) prints on the current bar and could materially shift this read; Goolsbee follows at 16:15
M15 close back below the 0.5632 range top would mark the breakout as a false break
Acceptance above the 61.8% fib and the 0.5641 friday high exposes the 0.5646 london high
Loss of the 0.5620 range floor reopens the 0.5609 asia low
14:47 UTC
Sideways after failed London rally · RSI 55 · price 0.56304
NY range 0.5620–0.5632, price pressing range top.
London broke the Asian range and ran to the 0.5646 london high, then faced full rejection back to 0.5618, near the 78.6% of the london rally fib, as the China PMI miss kept NZD heavy. NY has since held a 0.5620–0.5632 range, with buyers stepping in at the range low five times and price now pressing the range top just ahead of ISM.
Support: 0.5620, 0.5609
Resistance: 0.5632, 0.5646
What it said to watch
US ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC (minutes away) and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.5632 range top opens the path back toward the 0.5646 london high
Failure to hold the 0.5620 range low exposes the 0.5609 asian low
14:32 UTC
Sideways after failed London rally · RSI 53 · price 0.56269
Lower highs from 0.5646 pressing on a flat 0.5620 floor.
London's 37-pip run from the 0.5609 Asian low, set after the weak China PMI, topped at the 0.5646 London high and unwound by late morning. Price has since held a 0.5620–0.5632 range near the 50% retrace of that leg. The NY spike to 0.5632 was rejected, the range floor held four tests, and RSI(14) at 53 is neutral.
Support: 0.5620, 0.56086
Resistance: 0.56315, 0.56455
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6, Prices Paid f/c 77) is the likely trigger to resolve the 0.5620–0.5632 range
M15 close below the 0.5620 range floor, under the 61.8% of the London leg, exposes the 0.5609 Asian low
M15 close above the 0.5632 NY spike high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 0.5646 London high
Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC adds a second USD input into the late NY session
14:17 UTC
Intraday range after failed London rally · RSI 47 · price 0.56225
London false break above Asian range fully reversed; 0.5618–0.5632 range into NY.
London cleared the Asian range high to a 0.5646 london high, then gave the whole leg back as USD clawed back early losses. The 0.5618 swing low, near the 78.6% of that leg, has held three tests. The NY open spike to the 0.5632 ny open high was rejected, leaving price boxed in a 0.5618–0.5632 range below EMA20/50 with RSI near 47.
Support: 0.56184, 0.56086
Resistance: 0.56315, 0.56455
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5618 swing low exposes the 0.5609 asian low
Acceptance above the 0.5632 ny open high reopens the 0.5646 london high
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6, Prices Paid 77) and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could break the range
14:03 UTC
Intraday range after failed London rally · RSI 48 · price 0.56231
London spike above the Asian range reversed; NY chopping 0.5618–0.5632.
London lifted NZDUSD from the 0.5609 Asian low through Friday's high to a 0.5646 session high, then fully reversed. The pair now sits on the 61.8% retrace near 0.5623, boxed between the 0.5619 London low and a 0.5630 range top, with NZD still heavy after the weak China PMI. The first hour of NY spiked to 0.5632 and was sold back into the range.
Support: 0.5619, 0.5609
Resistance: 0.5630, 0.5646
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC (Prices Paid f/c 77) and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could break the NY range either way
An M15 close below the 0.5619 London low exposes the 0.5609 Asian low
Acceptance above the 0.5630 range top reopens the 50% retrace and the 0.5646 session high
NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC lands after the NY close
13:47 UTC
Intraday range after failed London rally · RSI 48 · price 0.56251
False break above Friday high, now ranging 0.5618–0.5632.
Asia slid to the 0.5609 Asian low on the China PMI miss. London then ran through Friday's 0.5641 high to 0.5645 before fully reversing, a false break that left a 0.5618–0.5632 range. The first hour of NY spiked to a 0.5632 NY high and was rejected; price sits on a flat EMA20 near the 61.8% of the London rally, with RSI(14) neutral at 48.
Support: 0.56184, 0.56086
Resistance: 0.56315, 0.56455
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.5618 range floor exposes the 0.5609 Asian low
M15 close above the 0.5632 NY high reopens the path toward the 0.5645 London high
NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC
13:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend after a failed London rally · RSI 41 · price 0.56213
Lower highs from the London high, early NY chop between 0.5618 and 0.5629.
London's push through the 0.5641 Friday high to the 0.56455 London high failed and fully unwound. The pullback has retraced about 65% of the Asia-low rally and is holding just above the 0.5618 swing low. Early NY is chopping beneath a 0.5629 lower high with RSI(14) near 41, as the USD recovery and soft China PMI keep NZD heavy.
Support: 0.56184, 0.56086, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56293, 0.56411, 0.56455
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5618 swing low exposes the 0.5609 Asia low, with 0.5600 psych beneath
Close above the 0.5629 lower high breaks the descending sequence from the London high
ISM Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6) could materially shift this read
Fib 61.8–78.6% zone of the Asia-low rally currently in play; acceptance below 78.6% leaves the move fully retraced
Compression 0.5618–0.5630 inside the Asian range, higher lows off 0.5618.
London cleared the Asian high and reached 0.5645, then reversed to the 0.5618 London low, matching Friday's low. NZD stays heavy after the RBNZ hold and the weak China PMI. Price is now compressing at 0.5620–0.5630 on higher lows, sitting near the 61.8% retrace of the London rally fib, with RSI(14) ~42 and ATR ~4 pips into the first hours of NY.
Support: 0.56184, 0.56086, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56295, 0.56455
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5629 Asian high reopens the 0.5645 London high
Break of the higher-lows line and the 0.5618 London low exposes the 0.5609 Asian low, then the 0.5600 round number
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC, could break the current compression
NZ Q3 labour data (Tue 21:45 UTC) and the US midterms are the larger event risk for this structure
Failed break above Asian high; lower highs back inside Asian range.
London cleared the asian high at 0.5629 and ran to 0.5645, a rejection just under the friday high, then gave back the whole leg to a 0.5618 london low. Price sits at 0.5624 on the 61.8% retracement, pinned under EMA20 and on EMA50 into the NY open, with the USD paring early losses and the soft China PMI keeping NZD heavy.
Support: 0.5619, 0.5609
Resistance: 0.5629, 0.5646
What it said to watch
M15 close below the london low at 0.5618–0.5620 opens the asian low at 0.5609
Reclaim of the asian high at 0.5629 negates the false break read and puts the 0.5645 friday high back in play
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
12:47 UTC
Intraday range, recovering off London pullback · RSI 57 · price 0.56285
Failed London breakout; higher lows from 0.5618 into Asian high.
The London rally broke the Asian high at 0.5630 but was rejected at the London high of 0.5645, in line with Friday's top. It then retraced nearly 80% to the 0.5618 London low as the USD pared early losses. Late in London, price has carved higher lows at 0.5618–0.5620 and is back testing the Asian high, with RSI(14) near 57.
Support: 0.56184, 0.56086
Resistance: 0.56295, 0.56455
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5630 asian high reopens the 0.5645 london high
Loss of the 0.5618 london low exposes the 0.5609 asian low
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6) could materially shift this read
NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC are a minor late-session risk
12:32 UTC
Intraday range after failed London rally · RSI 55 · price 0.56273
London false break above Asian high fully reversed; higher low at 0.5620, mid-range.
London broke the Asian high at 0.5630 and ran to a 0.5646 session high, then gave back the whole leg as the USD clawed back losses. The drop stalled at the 0.5618 London low, which matches Friday's low, and a 0.5620 higher low followed. Price sits near 0.5627 into the NY open with RSI(14) neutral near 55, just under the 38.2% fib of the London selloff, which lines up with the Asian high.
Support: 0.56185, 0.56087, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56295, 0.56455
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5630 asian high and 38.2% fib reopens the 0.5646 session high
Failure to hold the 0.5618 london low (Friday's low) exposes the 0.5609 asian low
A break of the Asian low brings the 0.5600 round number into play
US ISM Manufacturing (15:00 UTC) and Goolsbee (16:15 UTC) could materially shift this read
12:17 UTC
Intraday pullback after failed London rally · RSI 49 · price 0.56225
London false break above Asian high fully reversed; lower high forming inside Asian range.
London cleared the Asian high (0.5630) and Friday's 0.5641 bounce high to print a 0.5646 London high, then fully reversed as USD clawed back losses. The pullback low at 0.5618 sits at the 78.6% retrace of the London rally. Late London, ahead of the NY open, price is compressing just under the converged EMA20/50 near 0.5624, with a lower high at 0.5626.
Support: 0.56184, 0.56086, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56264, 0.56295, 0.56455
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5618 pullback low exposes the 0.5609 asian low, then 0.5600 psych
M15 close above the 0.5626 lower high and the 0.5630 asian high negates the lower-highs read; the 0.5646 london high caps above
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC and Fed's Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
11:47 UTC
Intraday range after failed London breakout · RSI 46 · price 0.56252
False break above Asian range, price back inside.
London cleared the 0.5630 asian high on a soft-USD tone and ran to a 0.5645 session high above Friday's swing high. The move then fully unwound to a 0.5618 london low, about 79% of the rally, and price now sits mid-range near 0.5625 with RSI(14) neutral at 46.
Support: 0.56184, 0.56086
Resistance: 0.56295, 0.56455
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5630 asian high would negate the false-break read
Failure to hold the 0.5618 london low reopens the 0.5609 asian low
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC, early NY session, could materially shift this read
London spike rejected below Friday high, price back on Friday low.
Monday opened on a small gap down and Asia drifted to a 0.5609 Asian low as soft China PMIs weighed on NZD. London lifted price to a 0.5646 London high, just shy of the 0.5650 Friday high, but supply capped it. The entire leg then retraced about 75% back to the 0.5618 Friday low, where the decline has stalled with RSI(14) near 47 and price under EMA20 (~0.5628).
Support: 0.5618, 0.5609
Resistance: 0.5646, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5618 Friday low opens the 0.5609 Asian low and the 0.5600 handle
Reclaim of 0.5630 and EMA20 puts the 0.5646 London high and 0.5650 Friday high back in play
Holding above the 78.6% retrace of the London rally (~0.5617) keeps the Friday low intact
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read during NY hours
Failed break above Asian range high, price back inside the Asian range.
London open lifted NZDUSD through the asian high at 0.5630 to a 0.5646 london high, but the move met rejection and fully reversed to a 0.5618 london low. Price now sits near 0.5622, around the 61.8% fib of the 0.5609–0.5646 leg, with RSI(14) near 46 and NZD still weighed by the soft China PMI and RBNZ hold.
Support: 0.56184, 0.56086, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56295, 0.56455
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5618 london low exposes the 0.5609 asian low and the 0.5600 psych level
Reclaim of the 0.5630 asian high negates the false break read and reopens the 0.5646 london high
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
London spike to 0.5645 rejected; price back inside the Asian range near the 61.8% fib.
No narrative produced.
Support: 0.5618, 0.5609, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5630, 0.5645, 0.5652
10:47 UTC
Intraday reversal lower after London spike · RSI 46 · price 0.56224
False break of Asian high, lower highs from 0.5645.
London broke the Asian high at 0.5630 and spiked to a 0.5645 session high, but was rejected and has unwound back to the 61.8% fib near 0.5622, below ema20 and testing ema50. A descending trendline of lower highs caps the drop while soft China PMIs and the RBNZ hold keep NZD heavy despite a softer USD.
Support: 0.56189, 0.56112, 0.56086
Resistance: 0.56295, 0.56455
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5619 friday low exposes the 0.5611 london base and the 0.5609 asian low
M15 close back above the 0.5630 asian high and the descending trendline negates the false-break read
ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read; NZ Building Permits follow at 21:45 UTC
London breakout above Asian range rejected at 0.5645, price back below Asian high.
The London open drove NZDUSD out of the Asian range to a london high of 0.5645, but the leg reversed. Price is now back below the asian high at 0.5630, sitting on EMA50 near 0.5624 and the 61.8% fib of the London leg. RSI(14) has cooled to 48, and the backdrop of soft China PMIs and the RBNZ hold leaves NZD heavy.
Support: 0.56227, 0.5619, 0.56086
Resistance: 0.56295, 0.56455, 0.56516
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.5623 (61.8% fib) exposes the friday low at 0.5619, then the asian low at 0.5609
Reclaim of the asian high at 0.5630 would put the london high at 0.5645 and the friday high at 0.5652 back in focus
US ISM Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6) could materially shift this read
NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC is a minor late-session risk
10:17 UTC
Intraday recovery, pulling back from session high · RSI 55 · price 0.56294
London higher-low sequence intact; first lower high printed under 0.5645.
The London leg off the 0.5609 asian low, driven by a softer USD on Iran-diplomacy hopes, met rejection at the 0.5646 session high just below Friday's range top. Price has slipped back under the 0.5634 pivot into the 38.2–50% fib zone near 0.5627–0.5631, with EMA20 sitting just beneath and RSI(14) cooled to ~55.
Support: 0.5627, 0.5622, 0.5609
Resistance: 0.5634, 0.5646, 0.5652
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5627 50% fib exposes the london base at 0.5622
Failure to hold 0.5622 unwinds most of the London leg toward the 0.5609 asian low
Close back above the 0.5634 pivot reopens the 0.5646 session high and 0.5652 friday high
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back · RSI 61 · price 0.56345
London breakout above Asian range, first pullback from session high.
London open lifted NZDUSD out of the 0.5609–0.5630 Asian range as USD softened on Iran-diplomacy hopes. The move filled the weekend gap and ran to a 0.5646 session high, where price was rejected. Price is now holding the 0.5634 pullback low, between the 23.6% and 38.2% fib of the rally, with RSI(14) cooled to ~61.
Support: 0.5634, 0.56295, 0.56086
Resistance: 0.56455, 0.56516
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5634 pullback low exposes the 0.5630 asian high, which sits at the 38.2% fib
A break of the rally trendline off the asian low ends the London higher-low sequence
Reclaim of the 0.5646 session high puts the 0.5652 friday high back in play
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken higher, HH/HL chain into 0.5645, now pulling back.
London broke the 0.5609–0.5630 Asian range higher as the USD softened on Iran-diplomacy headlines. The London rally ran 37 pips to a 0.5645 session high, where it met rejection. The pullback is holding above the Asian high, with RSI(14) cooled to ~62 from overbought.
Support: 0.56295, 0.5627, 0.56086
Resistance: 0.56455, 0.56516
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 0.5630 asian high returns price to the Asian range, with the 50% fib at 0.5627 next
A clear break of the 0.5645 session high exposes the Friday high at 0.5652
A loss of 0.5627 reopens the path toward the 0.5609 asian low
US ISM Mfg PMI and Prices Paid (15:00 UTC) and Goolsbee (16:15 UTC) could materially shift the USD side of this read
09:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 68 · price 0.56389
London breakout of the Asian range, HH/HL chain since open.
London open broke the 0.5609–0.5618 Asian range (asian low to asian high) and ran about 37 pips to the 0.5645 session high as USD softened on Iran-diplomacy headlines and lower oil, reclaiming Friday's afternoon prior range. The next bar rejected the session high and RSI(14) is cooling from near 70, with price now resting on the 0.5634 prior range top.
Support: 0.5634, 0.5618, 0.5609
Resistance: 0.56455, 0.5652
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5634 prior range opens the 38.2–50% london rally fib at 0.5631–0.5627
Close above the 0.5645 session high brings the 0.5652 friday high into play
A move back below the 0.5618 asian high negates the London breakout
US ISM Mfg PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC (NY session) could materially shift this read
London broke above the Asian range high, HH/HL chain from the Asian low.
London lifted NZDUSD about 37 pips off the 0.5609 Asian low, clearing the 0.5630 Asian high and Friday's 0.5641 prior high as USD softened on Iran-diplomacy hopes and lower oil. Price is pressing the 0.5646 session high with RSI(14) near 79, just under Friday's 0.5652 high.
Support: 0.56411, 0.56295, 0.56086
Resistance: 0.56455, 0.56516
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5641 prior high would mark the breakout as failing
Acceptance above the 0.5652 friday high extends the HH chain
A pullback holding the 0.5630 asian high / 38.2% fib area keeps the rally trendline intact
US ISM Mfg PMI 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Break of the rally trendline toward the 0.5609 asian low would reverse the London move
London breakout above Asian range, HH/HL chain since 07:00 UTC.
London reversed the Asia slide off the 0.5609 asian low, broke the Asian range high near 0.5630 and filled the weekend gap as USD eased on Iran-diplomacy headlines. Price is pressing the Friday prior high at 0.5641 with RSI(14) near 79, and the London low at 0.5618 marks the last higher low of the Asia-London leg.
Support: 0.56298, 0.56182, 0.56086
Resistance: 0.56411, 0.56464, 0.56516
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the asian high at 0.5630 would mark the breakout as a false break
Clearance of the prior high at 0.5641 exposes the 0.5646 fri nyc cap and the 0.5652 friday high
Loss of rising support and the london low at 0.5618 puts the 0.5609 asian low back in play
US ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
London breakout above Asian range, weekend gap filled.
After a weekend gap lower and an Asia session low at 0.5609, London open broke the Asian high at 0.5630 and filled the gap. The pair is now up about 27 pips from the low, helped by a softer USD as Iran-diplomacy hopes pulled oil and the haven bid lower. RSI(14) near 77 shows the leg is stretched, and price is pressing the late-fri cap at 0.5639.
Support: 0.56295, 0.56223, 0.56086
Resistance: 0.5639, 0.56516
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 0.5639 late-fri cap leaves the London push as a stretched spike; a close above it opens the path toward the 0.5652 friday high
A return below the 0.5630 asian high undoes the breakout and reopens the gap zone
Fib 50% of the Asia-to-London leg at 0.5622 is the deeper retracement reference, then the 0.5609 asian low
US ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift USD tone during NY hours
08:31 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since Asia · RSI 71 · price 0.5630
London break above Asian range, testing weekend gap fill.
Monday opened on a gap down from Friday's 0.5631 close, and the Asia session bottomed at 0.5609 (asian low) after the soft China NBS PMI. London lifted price off a rising trendline through the Asian range top as USD softened on Iran-diplomacy headlines, and the London leg is now pressing the 0.5631 gap fill with RSI(14) near 71.
Support: 0.5618, 0.5609
Resistance: 0.5631, 0.5640, 0.5652
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 0.5631 gap fill keeps the Monday range intact; acceptance above opens the 0.5640 friday range highs, then the 0.5652 friday high
A close back below the 0.5618 breakout low, near the 38.2% retrace of the London leg, undercuts the London breakout
Loss of the rising trendline and the 0.5609 asian low would resume Asia's lower-low sequence
US ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
08:16 UTC
Intraday rebound, pressing Asian high · RSI 70 · price 0.56273
London breakout from post-low Asia range, higher highs since 07:00 UTC.
Early London reversed the Asia slide. NZD broke the 0.5618 Asia top off the 0.5609 Asian low and is now testing the 0.5630 Asian high, with USD softening on Iran-diplomacy hopes. RSI(14) is near 70 at the level, and the weekend gap to Friday's 0.5631 close remains unfilled.
Support: 0.56234, 0.56184, 0.56086
Resistance: 0.56295, 0.56311
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5630 Asian high and Friday's 0.5631 close fills the gap and extends the London breakout
Rejection at the Asian high followed by a slip back under the 0.5623 London high turns the move into a range retest toward the 0.5618 Asia top
US ISM Mfg PMI and Prices Paid at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC; Q3 jobs data Tue 21:45 UTC is the larger NZD-side risk
08:03 UTC
Intraday rebound off Asian low · RSI 64 · price 0.56222
Higher lows from 0.5609, range top broken at London open.
NZDUSD gapped lower from Friday's 0.5631 close and slid to the 0.5609 Asian low, which was tested three times, after China's NBS PMI missed at 49.3. Higher lows at 0.5611 and 0.5618 followed. The London open broke the 0.5611–0.5618 range top as USD softened on US-Iran diplomacy hopes, and price is pressing the 0.5623 London high below the 0.5630 Asian high.
Support: 0.56184, 0.56112, 0.56086
Resistance: 0.56234, 0.56295, 0.56311
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5618 range top returns price to the Asian consolidation
Break of the 0.5611 higher low exposes the 0.5609 Asian low
Close above the 0.5630 Asian high puts the 0.5631 gap fill in play
US ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, basing since Asia low · RSI 57 · price 0.56194
Weekend gap lower, Asia lower lows to 0.5609, base 0.5611–0.5618, London open pop retesting friday low.
NZD gapped below the friday close at 0.5631 and slid through the friday low to an asian low at 0.5609 after the soft China NBS PMI, then based between 0.5611 and 0.5618. The first London-open bar spiked to a london high at 0.5623, near the 61.8% of the Asian range fib, and price is now retesting the friday low at 0.5619.
Support: 0.56189, 0.56112, 0.56086
Resistance: 0.56234, 0.56295, 0.56311
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5623 london high opens the asian high at 0.5630 and the 0.5631 friday close gap
Failure to hold the 0.5619 friday low returns price to the 0.5611 base low
Break of the 0.5609 asian low extends the lower-low chain toward 0.5600 psych
US ISM Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:32 UTC
Asia downtrend, early London bounce · RSI 61 · price 0.56211
Break above Asian consolidation, testing 61.8% retrace under the gap.
NZD gapped below Friday's 0.5631 close at the Monday open and slid through Asia to a 0.5609 asian low on the soft China NBS PMI. The first London bars broke the 0.5612–0.5618 consolidation and lifted price into the 61.8% retrace of the Asia drop near 0.5622, just under the 0.5625 monday open. RSI(14) is near 61 and price is pressing the EMA50.
Support: 0.5618, 0.5609
Resistance: 0.5625, 0.5631
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5625 monday open opens the path to the 0.5631 gap fill
Slip back below the 0.5618 range top returns price to the Asian range, with the 0.5609 asian low the next reference
US ISM Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:17 UTC
Downtrend, stalling in tight range · RSI 48 · price 0.56159
Lower highs from Asian high, compressed 0.5611–0.5618 range.
Monday opened about 6 pips below Friday's 0.5631 close, and Asia extended lower to the 0.5609 asian low after the soft China NBS PMI. Price has since compressed in a 0.5611–0.5618 range ahead of London open. The range top sits near the 38.2% fib, and price is pressing the falling trendline from the 0.5629 asian high; it is sitting on EMA20 with RSI(14) flat near 48.
Support: 0.56112, 0.56086, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56184, 0.56295, 0.56311
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5618 range top and the falling trendline opens the 0.5629 asian high and the 0.5631 gap fill
Failure to hold the 0.5611 range low and 0.5609 asian low exposes 0.5600 psych
London open expanding the ~3-pip ATR could resolve the range in either direction
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
The Asia session extended the weekend gap lower from Friday's 0.5631 close to an Asian low of 0.5609 after the soft China NBS PMI and a firmer USD. Price has since held a 0.5609–0.5618 band. Into the London open it is pressing the 38.2% retrace of the Asian decline at 0.5617, just under the Fri low and 50% level at 0.5619, with RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 0.56112, 0.56086, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56189, 0.56295
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5619 (Fri low / 50% retrace) opens the Asian high at 0.5630 and the gap fill toward 0.5631
Failure to hold the 0.5611 higher low exposes the 0.5609 Asian low, then 0.5600 psych
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
NZ Q3 jobs data Tue 21:45 UTC is the next major NZD-side risk
Lower highs since Asia open, tight compression 0.5612–0.5618.
Asia opened with a ~6-pip gap below Friday's close after the soft China NBS PMI and slid to a 0.5609 session low, extending Friday's NY sell-off from 0.5652. Late in the Asia session, before London open, price is compressing in a 0.5612–0.5618 band under the descending line, capped just below the 0.5619 friday low. Buyers have defended the 0.5612 higher low twice and RSI(14) is neutral near 54.
Support: 0.56118, 0.56086, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56189, 0.56295
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5619 friday low and the descending line exposes the 0.5630 asian high and gap area
Break of the 0.5612 higher low and 0.5609 session low resumes the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5600 round number
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read via the USD leg
Asia session pushed NZD to a 0.5609 asian low after the China PMI miss, and the rebound met rejection at 0.5618, just under Friday's low and near the 50% retrace of the Asian decline. Price is back below EMA20 into London open, consolidating in the lower part of the Asian range under the descending trendline from the 0.5630 asian high.
Support: 0.56086, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56189, 0.56295
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5609 asian low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 0.5600 round number
M15 close above 0.5619 (friday low, descending trendline) invalidates the lower-high sequence and opens the 0.5630 asian high
London open could set a new session range from this compressed base
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6) could materially shift this read
Weekly gap lower, Asia lower highs to 0.5609, now a tight 0.5612–0.5618 base.
NZD opened the week gapped below Friday's 0.5631 close and slid through the Asia session from the 0.5629 asia high to a 0.5609 asia low. The China PMI miss and post-RBNZ weakness drove the leg. The rebound has stalled at the 0.5618 bounce high near the 38.2% retrace, with a higher low at 0.5612 ahead of London open.
Support: 0.56118, 0.56086, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56184, 0.5624, 0.56295
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5618 bounce high and the 50% fib near 0.5619 opens the 0.5624 breakdown area
Loss of the 0.5612 higher low and the rising-lows line returns focus to the 0.5609 asia low, then 0.5600 psych
Recovery back to the 0.5629 asia high would fill most of the weekly gap and neutralise the Asia downtrend
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read; NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC sits ahead of Tuesday's Q3 labour data
Weekend gap lower, Asian downleg to 0.5609 triple-tested, shallow rebound capped near 0.5618.
Monday's Asia session opened with a gap of about 6 pips below the 0.5631 Friday close. Price then slid to a 0.5609 session low that held on three tests as the China PMI miss weighed on NZD. The rebound stalled at the 0.5618 bounce high, roughly a 43% retrace of the session drop, and late in the Asian range price is coiling just under EMA20 with the 0.5612 pullback low holding.
Support: 0.56118, 0.56086, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56175, 0.56255, 0.56311
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5609 session low resumes the Asian downleg toward the 0.5600 psych level
Close above the 0.5618 bounce high and the 50% fib of the session drop opens the 0.5626 weekly open / gap zone
London open could break the tight 0.5612–0.5618 coil
ISM Manufacturing PMI at 15:00 UTC could materially shift USD tone and this read
05:32 UTC
Asia downtrend, bounce stalling · RSI 46 · price 0.56157
Lower highs from the Monday open; triple-tested base at 0.5609 with a small higher low.
NZD opened Monday about 6 pips below Friday's 0.5631 close and slid through Asia after the China PMI miss, testing the 0.5609 asian low three times. The bounce has stalled near 0.5617. That is the 38.2% retrace of the Asia drop and the descending asia trendline, with price just under ema20.
Support: 0.56086, 0.5600, 0.5584
Resistance: 0.5618, 0.56295, 0.56311
What it said to watch
Break below the 0.5609 asian low resumes the lower-low sequence toward 0.5600 psych and the 0.5584 rbnz low
M15 close above ema20 and the asia trendline near 0.5618 opens the 0.5630 asian high and Friday gap fill zone
London open could expand the 21-pip Asian range; US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
05:17 UTC
Downtrend, minor bounce stalling · RSI 43 · price 0.5616
Lower highs since the weekly open gap; small higher-low base off 0.5609.
NZD gapped about 5 pips lower at the weekly open, then slid through the friday low at 0.5619 to 0.5609 in the Asia session after the China PMI miss. The bounce off a triple-tested asia low has stalled at 0.5617, where the descending trendline, EMA20 and the 38.2% retracement of the asia high-to-low leg converge just under the broken friday low.
Support: 0.5609, 0.5600, 0.5584
Resistance: 0.5619, 0.5630
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5619 (friday low) breaks the descending trendline and opens the 61.8% at 0.5621, then the asia high at 0.5630
Rejection at 0.5617–0.5619 and a break of the 0.5609 asia low extend the lower-low chain toward 0.5600 psych
Below 0.5600 psych, the 0.5584 rbnz low is the next reference
London open in about 2h is the first test of the Asian range; US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC during NY hours could shift this read
Lower highs through Asia, Friday low broken, tight base at 0.5609.
NZD extended Friday's slide through the Asia session after the China NBS PMI miss. It broke the Friday low at 0.5619 and set a session low at 0.5609 that held on three tests. The bounce stalled at 0.5617, where the fib 38.2 of the Asian high-to-low leg meets EMA20, leaving price compressed between 0.5613 and 0.5617 below the Asia lower highs trendline.
Support: 0.56086, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56168, 0.56189, 0.56295
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5609 session low confirms a fresh lower-low and puts 0.5600 psych in play
Reclaim of the 0.5619 Friday low (50% of the Asian high-low leg) invalidates the bounce-stall read
Break of the Asia lower highs trendline toward the 0.5630 Asian high would neutralise the intraday downtrend
London open is about 3h away, and range expansion out of the 0.5613–0.5617 band is likely then
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs under descending trendline; base at 0.5609.
NZD gapped lower at the weekly open below Friday's 0.5631 close after the China PMI miss. The Asian leg down from the 0.5630 asian high broke the 0.5619 friday low and stalled at the 0.5609 session low, which held on three tests. The bounce high at 0.5617 is capped under the descending trendline near the 38.2% retracement, with RSI(14) at 35.
Support: 0.56086, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56168, 0.56189, 0.56295
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5609 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5600 round number
Reclaiming the 0.5619 friday low and breaking the descending trendline would negate the Asian-session downtrend read
A move past the 0.5617 bounce high toward the 0.5630 asian high would fill most of the weekend gap
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Asian high, base at 0.5609, weak 38.2% bounce.
Monday opened with a ~6-pip gap below Friday's 0.5631 close. Asia then sold through the Friday low at 0.5619 on the China PMI miss, and three probes held a session low at 0.5609. The bounce high at 0.5617 stalled near the 38.2% fib of the Asian high-to-low leg, with RSI(14) ~36 and price under both EMAs late in the Asia session.
Support: 0.56086, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56168, 0.56189, 0.56295
What it said to watch
Close back above the Friday low at 0.5619 and the lower-highs trendline would neutralise the range break
Failure at 0.5609 session low exposes the 0.5600 round number, flagged as the key near-term level
Recovery above the Asian high at 0.5630 fills the gap and negates the downtrend read
London open in ~2.5h; US ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC is the next USD catalyst
Lower highs through Asia; Friday low broken, base at 0.5609.
NZD/USD gapped about 6 pips lower at the weekly open. It then slipped through the 0.5619 friday low during the Asia session, with the RBNZ hold and the China PMI miss weighing. A triple test of the 0.5609 asia low held, and the bounce is stalling near the 38.2% of the asia fib (0.5617), still under the descending line of asia lower highs.
Support: 0.56086, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56189, 0.56255
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5619 friday low and the asia lower highs line would neutralise the downtrend read; 0.5626 gap open is next above
Failure to hold the 0.5609 asia low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5600 round number
US ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read; NZ Q3 jobs data Tue 21:45 UTC is the larger event risk
04:03 UTC
Downtrend, early bounce off Asia low · RSI 38 · price 0.5616
Lower-high chain through Asia session after a weekend gap down; minor rebound from 0.5609.
Monday's Asia session gapped below Friday's 0.5631 close and printed a lower-high chain down to the asia low at 0.5609, breaking Friday's NY low at 0.5619 as the China PMI miss and post-RBNZ softness weighed on NZD. Price is bouncing into the 38.2% fib near 0.5617 and retesting the friday low from below, still capped under the descending trendline, with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 0.5609, 0.5600, 0.5584
Resistance: 0.5619, 0.5630
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5619 and the descending trendline turns the friday low back into support and opens the asia high at 0.5630
Failure to hold the 0.5609 asia low exposes the 0.5600 psych level, then the 0.5584 rbnz low
US ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Asia open; Friday low broken, base forming near 0.5609.
NZD/USD opened Monday Asia with a gap below Friday's 0.5631 close. It then broke the Friday low at 0.5619, sliding to a 0.5609 session low as the China PMI miss and the RBNZ hold weighed on NZD. Two tests of 0.5609 have held, RSI(14) is near 31 and lower highs from the 0.5630 Asian high are intact, with price mid-Asia session below both EMAs.
Support: 0.56086, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56189, 0.56295, 0.56311
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.5619 friday low, near the 61.8% fib of the Asian decline, would negate the breakdown and test the lower-highs line.
Failure to hold the 0.5609 session low opens the path to the 0.5600 round number, with the post-RBNZ 0.5584 low beyond.
A recovery through the 0.5630 asian high and the 0.5631 friday close would fill the gap and cancel the lower-high sequence.
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read. NZ Q3 labour data on Tue 21:45 UTC is the larger NZD risk.
03:32 UTC
Downtrend, pausing near lows · RSI 24 · price 0.56108
Lower highs through Monday Asia, Friday low broken.
Monday Asia opened about 6 pips below Friday's close and has printed lower highs all session. Price broke Friday's 0.5619 low as China's PMI miss and the post-RBNZ hold weighed on NZD. Price is now holding just above the 0.5609 session low with RSI(14) near 24, and the 0.5614 bounce high is capping the pause.
Support: 0.56086, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56145, 0.56189, 0.56295
What it said to watch
Break of the 0.5609 session low exposes 0.5600 psych, the near-term level flagged after the RBNZ hold
M15 close back above the 0.5619 friday low (50% of the asia leg fib) undoes the breakdown read
A reclaim of the 0.5630 asia high negates the lower highs sequence
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC and NZ building permits at 21:45 UTC could materially shift this read
03:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 27 · price 0.56111
LH/LL chain below Friday low, basing at 0.5609.
Monday's Asia session opened with a gap below Friday's 0.5631 close. The Asia sell-off then ran in a lower-high chain from the 0.56295 asia high, cutting through the friday low at 0.56189 after China's NBS PMI miss added to post-RBNZ NZD weakness. Price is holding just above the 0.56087 session low with RSI(14) near 27, and the 0.56145 bounce high is capping for now.
Support: 0.56087, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56145, 0.56189, 0.56295
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.56189 friday low (near the 50% of the Asia sell-off) would turn the breakdown into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.56087 session low exposes the 0.5600 round number
A push through the 0.56295 asia high invalidates the lower-high chain
US ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read later in the day
03:03 UTC
Downtrend, Asia extending lower · RSI 31 · price 0.56124
Gap-down open, lower highs, Friday low broken.
Monday opened with a gap below Friday's 0.5631 close. The Asian session has since printed a sequence of lower highs and broken Friday's NY low at 0.5619, with a session low of 0.5609 as the China PMI miss and post-RBNZ weakness weigh on NZD. RSI(14) is near 31 and price is bouncing off the low, with the 0.5600 round number just beneath.
Support: 0.56087, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56189, 0.56295
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5619 fri low, which is also the 50% retrace of the session drop, would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5609 session low exposes the 0.5600 round number
A close above the lower-highs trendline and the 0.5630 session high negates the Asian downtrend
US ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:47 UTC
Downtrend, oversold into Asia lows · RSI 23 · price 0.56098
Gap-down open, lower highs through Asia, Friday low broken.
Monday opened about 6 pips below Friday's 0.5631 close. Mid-Asia session has printed a steady chain of lower highs off the 0.5630 asian high, and price cut through Friday's 0.5619 NY low as the China PMI miss weighed on NZD. Price is pressing the 0.5609 session low with RSI(14) near 23, about 9 pips above the 0.5600 psych level.
Support: 0.56087, 0.5600, 0.5584
Resistance: 0.56189, 0.56295
What it said to watch
Failure to hold 0.5600 psych opens the 0.5584 post-RBNZ low (rbnz low)
Reclaim of 0.5619 friday low, which is also the 50% of the Asia leg, breaks the lower-high chain
A close above the Asia lower-highs line and the 0.5630 asian high would fill the weekend gap
London open liquidity could extend or reverse the Asian range move
US ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC could materially shift the USD side of this read
02:32 UTC
Downtrend through Monday Asia session · RSI 24 · price 0.56141
Lower highs since the weekend gap, Friday low broken.
Monday's Asia session gapped about 5 pips below Friday's 0.5631 close. Price has stepped lower along a line of lower highs from the 0.5630 asia high, and the latest leg cut through the friday low at 0.5619 to a session low at 0.5613. RSI(14) near 24 is stretched but not extreme, on thin weekend flow with no fresh NZD or USD catalyst.
Support: 0.56134, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56189, 0.5624, 0.56295
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the friday low at 0.5619 would mark the break as a false break
A move through the 0.5624 lower high and the Asia lower-highs trendline ends the lower-high sequence
0.5600 psych, OCBC's post-RBNZ pivot, is the next reference below the session low
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Downtrend, steady grind lower through Asia · RSI 31 · price 0.56159
Lower highs from the Monday gap open; Friday's NY low now broken.
Monday's Asia session opened about 6 pips below Friday's 0.5631 close, leaving a gap fill overhead, and has printed a chain of lower highs from the 0.5630 Asia high. Price is now below the 0.5619 friday low, with the session low at 0.5616 and RSI(14) near 31, soft but not extreme. Weekend flow was thin, and 0.5600 sits just below as the post-RBNZ pivot.
Support: 0.56159, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56189, 0.56295, 0.56311
What it said to watch
A close back above the 0.5619 friday low would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5616 session low leaves the 0.5600 rbnz pivot as the next reference
A break of the Asia lower-highs line or a move above the 0.5630 Asia high would neutralise the intraday downtrend; the gap fill is at 0.5631
US ISM Manufacturing (15:00 UTC) and NZ Building Permits (21:45 UTC) later Monday could shift this read
01:47 UTC
Downtrend, early Asia · RSI 37 · price 0.56217
Lower highs and lower lows since the weekend gap, pressing Friday's low.
Monday's Asia open gapped about 6 pips below Friday's 0.5631 close. Price has since stepped lower from the 0.5630 session high through a 0.5625 lower high and is now testing the 0.5619 Friday low, the same level that capped Friday's NY sell-off from 0.5652. Trade is thin with no fresh weekend news. RSI(14) sits near 37 and ATR(14) is about 3 pips.
Support: 0.56189, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56247, 0.56295, 0.56311
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5619 friday low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5600 key pivot
Recovery above the 0.5625 lower high and the descending trendline neutralises the Asia downtrend; the 0.5631 gap fill sits just above the 0.5630 session high
NZ Building Permits (21:45 UTC) and US ISM Manufacturing (15:00 UTC) later Monday could shift this read
01:32 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower in early Asia · RSI 33 · price 0.56201
Gap-down open, lower highs and lower lows, testing friday low.
Monday's Asia session opened with a roughly 6-pip gap below Friday's 0.5631 close. Price has stepped lower along a line of asian lower highs and now sits on Friday's NY-session low at 0.5619. RSI(14) is near 33, so the decline is not yet oversold, and with no fresh weekend news this reads as thin-liquidity drift rather than a headline repricing.
Support: 0.56189, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5625, 0.56295, 0.56311
What it said to watch
M15 close below the friday low at 0.5619 extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5600 psych level, the post-RBNZ pivot
Close above the 0.5625 lower high breaks the asian lower highs trendline; the asia high at 0.56295 and the gap fill at 0.5631 sit above
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC and NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC are the next scheduled catalysts for this read
01:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since the open · RSI 34 · price 0.56223
Gap-down open, Asian range stepping lower toward Friday's low.
The week opened about 6 pips below Friday's 0.5631 close. The Asia session has since printed lower highs from the 0.5630 asian high down to a 0.5621 asian low, sitting just above the 0.5619 friday low left by the NY-session sell-off from 0.5652. There was no fresh weekend flow per the digest, conditions are thin, RSI(14) is near 34 and ATR(14) is about 3 pips.
Support: 0.56213, 0.56189, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56295, 0.56311, 0.56411
What it said to watch
A break of the 0.5619 friday low extends the lower-low sequence and exposes psych 0.5600, OCBC's post-RBNZ pivot
Recovery above the 0.5630 asian high and the 0.5631 gap fill invalidates the lower-highs trendline read
Ny bounce hi at 0.5641 caps any gap-fill recovery on this view
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC could materially shift the intraday read; NZ Q3 jobs data on Tue 21:45 UTC is the larger NZD risk
01:03 UTC
Downtrend, Asia drift with low momentum · RSI 38 · price 0.56239
Lower highs since Friday's 0.5652 peak; Asian range above Friday low.
Asia session opened with a ~6-pip gap below Friday's 0.5631 close, the gap fill level. Price has since held a tight 0.5621–0.5630 Asian range just above the Friday low at 0.5619, with RSI(14) near 38 and ATR at only ~3 pips. Friday's NY rebound from 0.5619 stalled at the 0.5641 swing high, just past the 61.8% fib of the 0.5652–0.5619 drop, and the lower-high sequence remains intact.
Support: 0.56213, 0.56189, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56295, 0.56311, 0.56411
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5619 friday low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 0.5600 round number
Reclaim of the 0.5630 asian high and the 0.5631 gap fill would neutralise the weekend gap
A break above the 0.5641 swing high (61.8% fib) breaks the lower-high sequence
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC and NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC could expand the range beyond the current ~3-pip ATR
00:47 UTC
Downtrend, early Asia drift lower · RSI 32 · price 0.56219
Weekend gap down, lower highs since Asia open.
Asia session opened with a gap of about 6 pips below Friday's 0.5631 close and has printed lower highs since. Price is now pressing toward the Friday NY low at 0.5619, with RSI(14) near 32. That low ended a 33-pip slide from the Friday high at 0.5652, and the bounce high at 0.5641 stalled just beyond the 61.8% retracement.
Support: 0.56189, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56311, 0.56411, 0.56516
What it said to watch
A break of the fri ny low at 0.5619 extends the Asia lower-high sequence toward the 0.5600 round number, the post-RBNZ pivot
A reclaim of 0.5631 (gap fill) negates the Asia lower-high read and reopens the bounce high at 0.5641
NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC Mon and US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC Mon. Tuesday's NZ Q3 jobs data is the larger swing risk for this read
Weekend gap lower, thin Asian range pressing the session low.
Monday's Asia session gapped about 6 pips below Friday's 0.5631 close. Price is holding a tight 0.5622–0.5630 Asian range and pressing the session low, with RSI(14) near 37 and price below both EMAs. Friday's NY selloff from 0.5652 to the 0.5619 friday low left lower highs off the 0.5641 swing high, and the bounce stalled near the 38.2% retracement.
Support: 0.56225, 0.56189, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56295, 0.56311, 0.56411
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5631 gap fill invalidates the lower-highs read
Asian high at 0.5630 capping the session; a break there puts the 0.5641 swing high back in focus
Loss of the 0.5622 session low exposes the 0.5619 friday low, then the 0.5600 psych pivot
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Friday NY bounce; gap-down weekly open.
The week opened with a ~6-pip gap down from Friday's 0.5631 close. Early Asia session is holding a thin 0.5623–0.5630 range below EMA20/50, with RSI(14) near 41. Friday's NY sell-off from the 0.5652 Friday high to the 0.5619 Friday low left a lower-highs sequence, and the bounce stalled at the 0.5641 Friday NY high, near the 61.8% of the sell-off fib.
Support: 0.56225, 0.56189
Resistance: 0.56311, 0.56411, 0.56516
What it said to watch
A close back above the 0.5631 gap fill negates the gap-down read
Failure to hold the 0.5623 Asia low exposes the 0.5619 Friday low
A close above the 0.5641 Friday NY high breaks the lower-highs sequence and reopens the 0.5652 Friday high
US ISM Manufacturing (Mon 15:00 UTC) could materially shift this read; Asia liquidity is thin until London open
The Sunday reopen gapped about 6 pips below Friday's 0.5631 close, and early Asia has extended lower to 0.5623 with the lower-highs line from the 0.5641 swing high still capping. Friday's NY selloff from the 0.5652 friday high bottomed at the 0.5619 friday low, which is the next reference below; RSI(14) near 36 shows no oversold extreme yet in thin weekend-open liquidity.
Support: 0.5619, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5631, 0.5641, 0.5652
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5619 friday low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5600 psych pivot
Gap fill back above 0.5631 and a break of the lower-highs line weakens the downside read
Recovery through the 0.5641 swing high puts the 0.5652 friday high back in focus
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC and NZ Building Permits at 21:45 UTC can reshape the intraday structure