22:06 UTC
Downtrend, Oct bounce failed · RSI 40 · price 0.5624
LH/LL chain from 0.5929; 0.5710 lower high, price back near the Oct base.
Price has been in a quarter-long downtrend since the late-August 0.5929 high and has stayed below a falling EMA(50) throughout. The mid-October bounce from the 0.5565 oct low stalled at the 0.5710 oct high, near the 38.2% retracement of the aug-oct decline, and printed a fresh lower high. The RBNZ's surprise hold on Oct 28 then knocked price to a 0.5583 rbnz low, and the rebound faded under the ema20 near 0.5652, with RSI near 40 showing momentum rolling over short of oversold.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5583, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5652, 0.5710
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 0.5600 round number and the 0.5583 rbnz low exposes the 0.5565 oct low
- A break of the 0.5565 oct low extends the lower-low chain; holding it keeps the 0.5565–0.5710 base intact
- Daily close above the ema20 near 0.5652, then the 0.5710 oct high, would break the lower-high sequence
- NZ Q3 unemployment/employment (Tue 21:45 UTC) and US midterm results could materially shift this read