Lower high at 0.5646 under Friday's 0.5652 top; 0.5607–0.5652 range since Wednesday, price testing its lower half.
The rebound from the post-RBNZ low at 0.5583 peaked at Friday's 0.5652 high. It has since given back half the move. Monday's London-session spike on the softer USD and oil stalled at 0.5646, a lower high, and was fully reversed through NY as the weak China PMI weighed. Price now sits below the week open at 0.5626 and EMA(20), with RSI(14) near 40, and the Monday low at 0.5609 lines up with the 61.8% retracement just above 0.5600 psych.
Support: 0.5609, 0.5600, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5626, 0.5646, 0.5652
What it said to watch
H1 close below the Monday low at 0.5609 breaks the 61.8% retracement and exposes 0.5600 psych, then the RBNZ low at 0.5583
Recovery above the week open at 0.5626 and EMA(20) would put the monday high at 0.5646 and the lower-highs line back in play
A push through the friday high at 0.5652 invalidates the lower-high read
NZ Q3 labour data (Tue 21:45 UTC) and overnight US midterm results could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Friday inside a 0.5607–0.5652 range, price back below both EMAs.
Wednesday's RBNZ surprise hold drove the 0.5583 rbnz low. The rebound peaked at the 0.5652 friday high and has since put in lower highs. Monday's London spike to the 0.5646 monday high was rejected, and a softer NY bounce stalled near 0.5635 as China's PMI miss weighed. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 0.5622 and is pressing the 61.8% retracement of the post-RBNZ rally, which lines up with the 0.5609 monday low, with RSI(14) in the mid-40s.
Support: 0.56086, 0.5600, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56223, 0.56455, 0.56516
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5609 monday low and 61.8% fib breaks the higher-low line and exposes 0.5600 psych, then the 0.5583 rbnz low
Recovery back above ema20 near 0.5622 and the lower-highs line toward the 0.5646 monday high would restore the range read
NZ Q3 unemployment, employment and LCI Tue 21:45 UTC could materially shift this read
US midterm results overnight Tue into Wed add USD event risk to the friday high / psych range
21:03 UTC
Post-RBNZ recovery stalling, lower high in place · RSI 44 · price 0.56154
Lower high at 0.5646 under the 0.5652 Friday high; price back at Monday low.
Since the RBNZ's surprise hold sank the pair to the 0.5583 rbnz low on Wednesday, H1 rebuilt through higher lows to a 0.5652 friday high, but Monday's London-open push met rejection at 0.5646. That Monday high marks a lower high, and the pair has since faded back under EMA(20) and the 0.5626 week open as the contractionary China PMI and a steadier USD into the NY session kept NZD heavy. Price now sits on the 0.5609 Monday low, which lines up with the 61.8% retracement of the post-RBNZ recovery, while RSI(14) holds in the mid-40s.
Support: 0.56086, 0.5600, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56255, 0.56455, 0.56516
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5609 Monday low breaks the post-RBNZ higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.5600 round number, then the 0.5583 RBNZ low
Recovery back above the 0.5626 week open and EMA(20) returns the pair to the mid-range
H1 close above the 0.5646 Monday high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 0.5652 Friday high back into play
NZ Q3 unemployment and employment change Tue 21:45 UTC (f/c 5.5% / +0.4%) could materially shift this read
US midterm results overnight Tuesday add USD event risk; NZ Building Permits are due tonight at 21:45 UTC
NZD/USD has held a 0.5607–0.5652 range since the RBNZ's surprise hold drove it to a 0.5583 rbnz low on Wednesday. The rebound has stalled around the 61.8% retracement of that drop. Monday's London push to the 0.5646 monday high was rejected, and the NY session faded the post-ISM bounce from 0.5636 to a day low at 0.5617. That leaves lower highs since the 0.5652 friday high, with price back under EMA(20) at 0.5625 and RSI(14) near 49.
Support: 0.56165, 0.56067, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56251, 0.56455, 0.56516
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5607 range floor exposes 0.5600 and the 0.5583 rbnz low
Recovery above EMA(20) and the 0.5646 monday high breaks the lower-highs sequence; the 0.5652 friday high marks the range top
Failure to hold the 0.5617 day low keeps the 38.2% retracement area under pressure
NZ Q3 unemployment/employment data Tue 21:45 UTC and the US midterm results could materially shift this read
0.5609–0.5652 range, lower high at 0.5646 under 0.5652.
NZDUSD has rotated inside a 0.5609–0.5652 range since the RBNZ's surprise hold printed the 0.5583 rbnz low. The post-RBNZ recovery is now retracing toward its 50% level near 0.5617. The London open lifted price to a 0.5646 Monday high, a lower high under Friday's 0.5652 prior high, and the ISM-beat bar during NY hours capped near 0.5636 before a slide back below the weekly open and EMA(20). RSI(14) sits flat near 49, and Monday's low at the 61.8% retracement marks the range floor, with psych 0.5600 beneath it.
Support: 0.56086, 0.5600, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56255, 0.56455, 0.56516
What it said to watch
H1 close below 0.5609 (monday low, 61.8%) breaks the range floor and exposes psych 0.5600 and the 0.5583 rbnz low
Recovery above the 0.5626 weekly open, then the 0.5646 monday high, breaks the lower-highs line toward the 0.5652 prior high
NZ Q3 unemployment and employment change (Tue 21:45 UTC) could materially shift this read
US midterms Tue and JOLTS at 15:00 UTC add USD event risk inside the range
18:04 UTC
Range after post-RBNZ recovery, upside fading · RSI 51 · price 0.56245
0.5607–0.5652 range since Thursday; lower high Monday, price mid-range.
The RBNZ's surprise hold drove Wednesday's Asia-session flush to the 0.5583 rbnz low. The recovery stalled at the 0.5652 range high on Friday, a 61.8–66% retracement of the drop. Since then price has rotated inside a 0.5607–0.5652 range. On Monday the Asia dip after China's PMI miss held the 0.5607 range low, but London's spike to the 0.5646 monday high was rejected, leaving a lower high. The ISM beat then kept NY capped at the 0.5636 ny high, and price now sits marginally below both EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) flat near 50.
Support: 0.5619, 0.5607, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5636, 0.5646, 0.5652
What it said to watch
NZ Q3 unemployment/employment Tue 21:45 UTC: a soft print could break the 0.5607 range low and expose the 0.5583 rbnz low
US midterm results overnight Tuesday could materially shift this read via USD
H1 close below the 0.5619 ny low puts the 0.5607 range low back in play
H1 close above the 0.5646 monday high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 0.5652 range high
Repeat rejection at the 0.5636 ny high keeps the lower-highs sequence intact
0.5608–0.5652 range, higher lows under a 0.5646–0.5652 cap.
Since Wednesday's RBNZ drop to 0.5583, NZDUSD has chopped in a 0.5608–0.5652 range with lows stepping higher. The friday high at 0.5652 and today's 0.5646 monday high both stalled near the 61.8% retracement. Monday's London push faded as USD recovered after the ISM beat, leaving price hugging a flat EMA(20)/EMA(50) just above the 0.5626 weekly open with RSI(14) at 50.
Support: 0.56255, 0.5620, 0.56086
Resistance: 0.5636, 0.56455, 0.56516
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5620 ny lows exposes the 0.5609 monday low and the higher-lows trendline
Acceptance above 0.5636 (50% fib, NY session highs) reopens the 0.5646 monday high and 0.5652 friday high
NZ Q3 labour data Tue 21:45 UTC and US midterm results could materially shift this read
Range 0.5609–0.5652 with lower highs compressing from the top.
NZD/USD has rotated inside a 0.5609–0.5652 band since Wednesday's surprise RBNZ hold printed the 0.5583 RBNZ low, and Friday's rebound stalled exactly at the 61.8% fib of that drop. Monday's London open spike to the 0.5646 London high was fully reversed to the 0.5618 London low, and the NY bounce after the ISM beat capped at the 0.5636 NY high, leaving a run of three lower highs. Price is flat on EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) at 51, and the Asia low at 0.5609 is the base of the compressing range as soft China PMI data weighs on NZD.
Support: 0.5618, 0.5609, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5636, 0.5646, 0.5652
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5618 London low exposes the 0.5609 Asia low, then the 0.5583 RBNZ low
Close above the 0.5636 NY high breaks the lower-highs sequence, with the 0.5646 London high and 0.5652 61.8% fib next
NZ Q3 labour data Tue 21:45 UTC (unemployment f/c 5.5%) could materially shift this read
US midterm results overnight Tue into Wed add USD-side event risk to the range
Post-RBNZ range 0.5607–0.5652, higher lows vs lower highs.
NZD/USD fell to 0.5583 on Wednesday's surprise RBNZ hold and has since printed higher lows inside a 0.5607–0.5652 range, recovering roughly half of that leg. Monday's Asia session dipped toward the range floor on the weak China PMI. The London-open rally then stalled at 0.5646, right at the 61.8% fib and below the Friday high, extending the lower-highs sequence. Price is back at the 50% level, above EMA(20) near 0.5627, with RSI(14) in the mid-50s and the 0.5618 swing low holding twice since Friday.
Support: 0.5627, 0.5618, 0.5607
Resistance: 0.5646, 0.5652, 0.5685
What it said to watch
ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 0.5652 Friday high breaks the range top and the lower-highs line, opening the 0.5685 pre-RBNZ high
Failure to hold the 0.5618 swing low exposes the 0.5607 range floor and the higher-lows trendline
NZ Q3 jobs (Tue 21:45 UTC) and US midterms are the larger event risk for the range structure
The RBNZ-hold drop to the 0.5583 rbnz low has been retraced only into the 50% zone. Friday's 0.5652 high and today's London-open spike to the 0.5646 monday high both stalled there, leaving a lower-highs line. Price has slipped back below the weekly open and EMA(20) near 0.5625 with RSI(14) around 46, as the China PMI miss keeps NZD heavy, while the 0.5609 monday low holds as the floor of the current range.
Support: 0.5609, 0.5600, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5625, 0.5646, 0.5652
What it said to watch
ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC and Fed's Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC could shift the USD side of this read
An H1 close below the 0.5609 monday low exposes the 0.5600 pivot and the 0.5583 rbnz low
Reclaiming the weekly open / EMA(20) at 0.5625, then a close above the 0.5646 monday high, breaks the lower-highs line, with the 0.5652 friday high next
NZ Q3 labour data Tue 21:45 UTC and the US midterms Tue could materially reshape the range
13:03 UTC
Sideways after RBNZ drop, lower high forming · RSI 50 · price 0.5624
Range 0.5607-0.5652 below 0.5652 swing high; lower highs since Friday.
The RBNZ's surprise hold dropped the pair to the 0.5583 rbnz low in Wednesday's Asia session. The recovery stalled at the 0.5652 swing high on Friday, between the 50% and 61.8% levels of the RBNZ drop fib, and Friday's NY open knocked it back. Since then price has held a 0.5607-0.5652 range. Monday's London open rally was rejected at 0.5646, making a lower high. As the USD firmed and the weak China PMI weighed, price slipped back under the fib 38.2 at 0.5630 to sit on a flat EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) neutral near 50.
Support: 0.5609, 0.5600, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5630, 0.5646, 0.5652
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5609 monday low and the range floor exposes the 0.5600 psych level and the 0.5583 rbnz low
Recovery above the 0.5646 monday high and 0.5652 swing high would break the lower-highs sequence
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC today could set direction for the rest of the NY session
NZ Q3 labour data Tue 21:45 UTC and the US midterms are the main risk for a range break
0.5607–0.5652 range since Wednesday, lower high Monday.
The surprise RBNZ hold knocked NZDUSD to the 0.5583 RBNZ low in Wednesday's Asia session. Price then rebuilt into a 0.5607–0.5652 range, with the range top set Friday into NY hours. Monday's London push stalled at 0.5646, a monday high below Friday's for a lower high, and the rejection sent price back under EMA20 (~0.5624) as the USD firmed and the weak China PMI weighed. Price sits near the 38.2–50% retracement of the post-RBNZ recovery, with RSI(14) at 46 and EMA20 flattening.
Support: 0.5609, 0.5600, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5624, 0.5646, 0.5652
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5609 asian low, at the 61.8% retracement, opens the 0.5600 psych level and the 0.5583 rbnz low
Reclaim of ema20 and a close above the 0.5646 monday high would neutralise the lower-high read and put the 0.5652 range top back in play
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC today could shift the USD side of this read
NZ Q3 labour data Tue 21:45 UTC and US midterms are the key tests of the 0.5600 psych level and the range
11:03 UTC
Sideways after RBNZ drop, lower high forming · RSI 44 · price 0.56224
Post-RBNZ range 0.5607–0.5652; lower high at 0.5646 under Friday's top.
The RBNZ's surprise hold drove Wednesday's Asia-hours plunge to the 0.5583 rbnz low. Since then NZDUSD has rotated in a 0.5607–0.5652 range, and Monday's London-open rally stalled at the 0.5646 london high, a lower high under the 0.5652 friday high, before reversing within the hour. Price now sits just above the 0.5619 friday low, below EMA(20) and the 0.5626 weekly open, with RSI(14) near 44 as soft China PMIs weigh on NZD. The 0.5609 asian low lines up with the 61.8% retracement of the post-RBNZ recovery.
Support: 0.56189, 0.56086, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56255, 0.56455, 0.56516
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5619 friday low exposes the 0.5609 asian low and the 61.8% fib
Loss of the 0.5607–0.5609 range floor reopens the 0.5583 rbnz low
Reclaiming the 0.5626 weekly open/EMA(20) and closing above the 0.5646 london high puts the 0.5652 friday high back in play and negates the lower-high read
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC and Goolsbee at 16:15 UTC are near-term USD risks; NZ Q3 jobs data Tue 21:45 UTC could break the range
Range 0.5607–0.5652 since Wednesday; lower high today.
NZD/USD has ranged since Wednesday's RBNZ surprise hold drove it to the 0.5583 RBNZ low. Since then it has held between a 0.5607 range floor and the 0.5652 Friday high, near the 50% retracement of the RBNZ drop. Asia dipped toward the floor on the soft China PMI, then the London open lifted price back through the weekly open and EMA(20) as the USD softened. The 0.5646 session high printed a lower high and saw rejection, and RSI(14) sits near 53.
Support: 0.5626, 0.5607, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5646, 0.5652
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5652 Friday high breaks the range top and the 50% retracement
Failure to hold the 0.5626 weekly open / EMA(20) puts the 0.5607 range floor back in play
A break of the range floor reopens the 0.5583 RBNZ low
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC today could shift the USD side of this read
NZ Q3 labour data Tue 21:45 UTC is the key event risk for the range
Higher lows off 0.5583 vs lower highs from 0.5652; price testing upper line.
NZD/USD has rebuilt from the 0.5583 RBNZ low after Wednesday's surprise hold, printing higher lows while Friday's 0.5652 week high started a lower-highs sequence. Monday's Asia slide to the 0.5609 Monday low held the 61.8% fib of the post-RBNZ recovery. A sharp London-open bar then reclaimed the 0.5626 weekly open and EMA(20) as USD softened on Iran-diplomacy hopes. RSI(14) has turned up from the high-30s to 58, and price is now pressing the lower-highs line just under the 0.5644 prior high.
Support: 0.5626, 0.5609, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5644, 0.5652, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close above 0.5652 week high breaks the lower-highs sequence and opens the 0.5700 round number
Slip back below the 0.5626 weekly open and EMA(20) returns price to the lower half of the range
Failure to hold the 0.5609 Monday low and 61.8% fib breaks rising support and exposes the 0.5583 RBNZ low
US ISM Mfg PMI 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6) and Goolsbee 16:15 UTC could shift the USD side of this read
NZ Q3 labour data Tue 21:45 UTC (unemployment f/c 5.5%) is the main NZD risk to the range
08:04 UTC
Post-RBNZ rebound fading, price just below both EMAs · RSI 47 · price 0.56223
Lower highs from 0.5652 compressing into higher lows off 0.5595.
The RBNZ's surprise hold drove Wednesday's Asia-session flush to the 0.5583 RBNZ low. The rebound was rejected at the 0.5652 week high during Friday's London session, and NY hours gave most of it back. Monday's Asian session, after the soft China PMI, extended the slide to the 0.5609 Monday low, almost exactly the 61.8% retrace of the post-RBNZ bounce, leaving price just under the 0.5624 EMA20, with EMA(50) near 0.5629 and RSI(14) at 47.
Support: 0.5609, 0.5600, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5624, 0.5631, 0.5652
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5609 Monday low breaks the higher lows line and exposes the 0.5600 psych level, then the 0.5583 RBNZ low
H1 close back above the 0.5624 EMA20 and the 0.5631 Friday close would break the lower highs sequence from the week high
Close above the 0.5652 week high invalidates the rejection read
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
NZ Q3 labour data on Tue 21:45 UTC is the main event risk for the range
Higher-low sequence broken; lower highs since Friday's 0.5652 high.
Wednesday's surprise RBNZ hold drove a roughly 90-pip collapse to the 0.5583 rbnz low. A recovery line of higher lows followed, but it met rejection at the 0.5652 bounce high in Friday's NY session. Monday opened on a small gap lower after the soft China PMI, and the Asia session pushed through the 0.5619 friday low. That move found demand at the 0.5609 monday low, the 61.8% retracement of the bounce. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 0.5624, with RSI(14) at 38 and the lower-high line capping the Asian range.
Support: 0.5609, 0.5600, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5619, 0.5626, 0.5652
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5609 monday low and 0.5600 round number would confirm a lower-low and expose the 0.5583 rbnz low
Recovery back above the 0.5619 friday low and the 0.5626 weekly open (EMA20 alongside) would neutralise the lower-high line
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC today could materially shift this read via December Fed hike pricing
NZ Q3 labour data Tue 21:45 UTC is the main NZD-side risk; a soft print would test the post-RBNZ lows
The RBNZ's surprise hold on Wednesday drove a ~90-pip flush to the 0.5583 RBNZ low in Asia, after which H1 built higher lows into Friday's 0.5652 high, where London gains met rejection into the NY open. Monday's Asia session opened just below Friday's close and slipped through the recovery line and the 0.5619 Friday low on the China PMI miss, tagging Monday's low at 0.5609, the 61.8% of the recovery fib. Price now sits below EMA20 near 0.5626, with RSI(14) around 40 and well off Friday's highs.
Support: 0.5609, 0.5600, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5619, 0.5626, 0.5652
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.5619 Friday low and the EMA20 at 0.5626 would restore the higher-low recovery read
Failure to hold Monday's low at 0.5609 (61.8% recovery fib) exposes the 0.5600 round number and the 0.5583 RBNZ low
A push back through the 0.5652 Friday high would break the consolidation cap
US ISM Mfg PMI at 15:00 UTC today and NZ Q3 labour data Tue 21:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Failed rebound off 0.5583, higher-lows line broken, testing 61.8% retrace.
The rebound from the 0.5583 RBNZ low, set after Wednesday's surprise hold, topped at the 0.5652 Friday high during London. NY hours on Friday reversed it, and Monday's Asia session has pushed price below the 0.5626 weekly open after the China PMI miss. Price now trades under both EMAs and through the higher-lows trendline, testing the 61.8% fib near 0.5609 just above the 0.5607 Thursday low, with RSI(14) in the mid-30s.
Support: 0.56067, 0.5600, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56255, 0.56311, 0.56516
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the Thursday low at 0.5607 exposes the 0.5600 round number and then the 0.5583 RBNZ low
A recovery above the weekly open at 0.5626 and the Friday close at 0.5631 would neutralise Monday's breakdown from the higher-lows trendline
US ISM Mfg PMI Mon 15:00 UTC (f/c 54.6) could shift the USD side of this read
NZ Q3 labour data Tue 21:45 UTC is the main event risk for the 0.5600-0.5650 structure
Higher lows since Wednesday's low; Friday high rejected, price testing rising support.
The RBNZ's surprise hold drove NZDUSD from 0.5675 to the 0.5583 rbnz low in Wednesday's Asia session. A softer USD has since helped the pair rebuild, with higher lows at 0.5595, 0.5607 and 0.5619. Friday's push to 0.5652 met rejection into the NY open, and Monday's Asia drift has left price below EMA(20) near 0.5633, sitting on the higher-lows trendline and the 38.2% retracement of the post-RBNZ recovery around 0.5625, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 0.56189, 0.56067, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.5633, 0.56516, 0.5675
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 0.5619 friday low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.5607 thursday low
Reclaiming EMA(20) near 0.5633, then clearing the 0.5652 friday high, reopens the path to the 0.5675 breakdown level
US ISM Manufacturing (Mon 15:00 UTC) could materially shift USD tone and this read
NZ Q3 jobs data (Tue 21:45 UTC) is the key NZD risk; a soft print would put the 0.5583 rbnz low back in focus
Higher lows since Wednesday's flush; Friday high rejected, price back below EMA20/EMA50.
Wednesday's surprise RBNZ hold drove a roughly 92-pip flush to the 0.5583 rbnz low during the Asia session. The recovery since built higher lows at the 0.5607 thu low and the 0.5619 fri ny low as the USD softened. Friday's late-London push to the 0.5652 fri high stalled between the 50% and 61.8% retrace of the RBNZ drop and was rejected into the NY open. Monday's Asian session has slipped back below the ema20 near 0.5633, with RSI(14) near 39 and price pressing the post-RBNZ higher-low line.
Support: 0.5619, 0.5607, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5633, 0.5652, 0.5675
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5619 fri ny low breaks the post-RBNZ higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.5607 thu low
Failure to hold the 0.5600 round number reopens the 0.5583 rbnz low
Reclaim of the ema20 near 0.5633 and a close through the 0.5652 fri high would extend the recovery toward the 0.5675 pre-rbnz level
US ISM Manufacturing at 15:00 UTC Monday could materially shift this read
NZ Q3 labour data on Tuesday at 21:45 UTC could also materially shift this read