19:04 UTC
Range-bound with a bearish tilt, lower highs since January · RSI 40 · price 0.5643
Broad 0.5565–0.6120 range since mid-2025; descending highs, price retesting range base.
NZDUSD has traded in a broad 0.5565–0.6120 range since mid-2025. Lower highs from the January 0.6093 peak have tilted the range lower, and price is back at the base, retesting the 18-month low near 0.5565. Price sits below both W1 EMA(20) and EMA(50), which is near 0.5790, so the macro filter reads negative, while RSI near 40 is mid-range rather than stretched. This week's surprise RBNZ hold on a hawkish 4-3 split cushioned the dip, but the bounce stalled under the 0.5710 rebound cap.
Support: 0.5565, 0.5500
Resistance: 0.5710, 0.5790, 0.5990
What it said to watch
- Weekly close below the 0.5565 18m low breaks the range base and exposes the 0.5500 psych level
- Weekly close above the 0.5710 rebound cap opens a test of W1 EMA(50) near 0.5790 and the 38.2% retracement of the Jan-Oct decline
- A move through the 0.5990 lower highs line would undo the descending-high sequence from January
- NZ Q3 labour data on Nov 3 tests December RBNZ hike pricing, and together with the US midterms could materially shift this read