NZD/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Friday, 30 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the NZD/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
22:48 UTC
Intraday down from 0.5652 high, momentum flat · RSI 52 · price 0.56311
Lower highs pressing a 0.5628 swing low; tight late-NY compression.
London broke above the Asian range to a 0.5652 session high, which drew a rejection into the NY open. The slide reached a 0.5619 day low on the Chicago PMI miss, and the softer-USD rebound stalled at the 0.5641 rebound high near the 61.8% retrace. Into the weekly close, price is compressing in 0.5628–0.5635 under a falling trendline of lower highs, with ATR down to about 3 pips.
Support: 0.56278, 0.56189
Resistance: 0.56354, 0.56411, 0.56516
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.5635 lower high and the falling trendline ends the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.5641 rebound high back in play
Failure to hold the 0.5628 swing low exposes the 0.5619 day low
Bars are thin into the Friday close, so the Monday open may gap away from this compression
NZ Building Permits Mon 21:45 UTC and US ISM Mon 15:00 UTC can reset the range early next week
20:47 UTC
Sideways after NY reversal, drifting lower · RSI 42 · price 0.56306
Lower highs compressing into 0.5628–0.5635 late NY.
London lifted NZDUSD out of the Asian range to a 0.5652 london high. NY then reversed through the 0.5623 asian low to a 0.5619 ny low, and that false break was reclaimed. The rebound stalled at the 0.5641 bounce high, just past the 61.8% retrace, and late NY is now compressing under a line of lower highs near 0.5635 into the Friday close, with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 0.56278, 0.5623, 0.56189
Resistance: 0.5635, 0.56411, 0.56516
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.5628 swing low extends the lower-high sequence and exposes the 0.5623 asian low and the 0.5619 ny low
A close above the 0.5641 bounce high breaks the lower highs trendline and reopens the 0.5652 london high
Thin Friday close and weekend gap risk; NZ Building Permits and US ISM on Monday could reset the range
20:32 UTC
Intraday pullback from London high, now flat · RSI 42 · price 0.5633
Lower highs since NY rebound; tight 0.5628–0.5635 band after NY close.
The soft-USD bid carried London to a 0.5652 london high. NY then sold off to a 0.5619 day low, and the rebound met rejection at the 0.5641 rebound high, just past the 61.8% fib. Since NY close price has compressed between the 0.5628 late low and the fib 50% at 0.5635, with RSI(14) near 42 and ATR around 3 pips; no setup is in play into the weekend close.
Support: 0.5628, 0.5619
Resistance: 0.5635, 0.5641, 0.5652
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.5628 late low reopens the 0.5619 day low
Closes above the fib 50% at 0.5635 and then the 0.5641 rebound high would put the 0.5652 london high back in view
Thin post-NY liquidity into the weekend; Monday's open carries gap risk ahead of US ISM (Mon 15:00 UTC) and NZ Q3 labour data (Tue 21:45 UTC)
20:17 UTC
Intraday range after two-way session swings · RSI 47 · price 0.56341
Lower highs inside 0.5628–0.5641 after recovery from 0.5619 day low.
London broke the 0.5644 Asian high to a 0.5652 London high on the softer-USD rebound, then the break failed. NY swept the 0.5624 Asian low to a 0.5619 day low and retraced half the drop. Late NY is ranging 0.5628–0.5641 under the 0.5641 NY high, with lower highs and price sitting at the 50% retrace and ema20 as Friday liquidity thins.
Support: 0.56278, 0.56236, 0.56189
Resistance: 0.56411, 0.56438, 0.56516
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.5641 NY high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 0.5644 Asian high, then the 0.5652 London high
Failure to hold the 0.5628 late NY low exposes the 0.5624 Asian low and the 0.5619 day low
Friday close into thin liquidity carries weekend gap risk at the reopen; NZ Building Permits Mon 21:45 UTC and the NZ Q3 labour data Tue 21:45 UTC are the next scheduled NZD tests
20:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend from London high, now flat · RSI 43 · price 0.56321
Lower highs since 0.5652; late-NY consolidation 0.5628–0.5641.
London broke above the Asian range to a 0.5652 London high and failed. NY swept the Asian low to a 0.5619 day low, then rebounded as USD softened after the Chicago PMI miss. Late NY is consolidating 0.5628–0.5641 below the lower-highs line, with RSI(14) near 43 and price under EMA20/50.
Support: 0.56278, 0.56189
Resistance: 0.56411, 0.56516
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5628 late low reopens the 0.5619 day low
M15 close above the 0.5641 NY high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 0.5652 London high back into view
Friday close is near, with thin liquidity into the weekend. Monday's ISM (15:00 UTC) is the next USD catalyst for this read
19:46 UTC
Intraday down from London high, flattening late NY · RSI 36 · price 0.56302
Lower highs since the 0.5641 NY bounce high, pressing the 0.5629 late low.
London broke above the Asian range to a 0.5652 london high on soft-USD flows, then failed. NY reversed through the asian low to a 0.5619 day low before a bounce stalled at 0.5641. Late NY is printing lower highs at the 0.5635 lower high and is pinned at the 0.5629 late low. RSI(14) is at 36 and ATR(14) is about 3 pips, which fits thin Friday trade after London close.
Support: 0.56294, 0.56236, 0.56189
Resistance: 0.56354, 0.56411, 0.56516
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5629 late low exposes the 0.5624 asian low and the 0.5619 day low
Close above the 0.5635 lower high breaks the descending lower-high line; 0.5641 ny bounce is next
Weekly close in thin liquidity; next NZD catalyst is Q3 labour data Nov 3, outside this window
Both sides of the Asian range taken, price back inside; lower highs since the 0.5641 NY high.
London broke the Asian high at 0.5644 and ran to a 0.5652 London high on the softer USD, but NY reversed it through the Asian range to a 0.5619 session low before rebounding to a 0.5641 NY high. Late NY is now compressing around 0.5634, near the 50% retracement of the London-NY drop, under a line of lower highs, with NY lows at 0.5631 holding.
Support: 0.5631, 0.5619
Resistance: 0.5641, 0.5644, 0.5652
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.5641 NY high breaks the lower-highs line and opens the 0.5644 Asian high
Failure to hold the 0.5631 NY lows exposes the 0.5619 session low
Thin Friday close; weekend US mid-term headlines and Monday's ISM (15:00 UTC) are the next USD catalysts
Tight 0.5629–0.5641 range below London high; testing range floor.
London broke the 0.5624–0.5644 Asian range to a london high at 0.5652, but the move failed and NY sold off to a day low at 0.5619. The rebound came alongside the Chicago PMI miss and stalled at the 61.8% fib near the 0.5639 range cap and 0.5641 ny high. Late NY, price is compressing at the 0.5631 range floor (38.2%) with RSI(14) near 42 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 0.56311, 0.56292, 0.56189
Resistance: 0.5639, 0.56411, 0.56516
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5631 range floor exposes the 0.5629 higher low, then the 0.5619 day low
Close above the 0.5641 ny high breaks the post-NY range and reopens the 0.5652 london high
Thin post-London liquidity into the weekend; NZ Q3 labour data (Nov 3) is the next major catalyst
Late-NY range back inside the Asian range after a sweep of the Asian low.
London cleared the 0.5644 asian high to a 0.5652 session high. NY then reversed the move, sweeping the Asian low to a 0.5619 session low before rebounding. The bounce met rejection at the 0.5641 ny high, near the 61.8% fib, and late-Friday NY trade is compressing around 0.5633, just above the 0.5631 swing low, despite the soft-USD backdrop.
Support: 0.56311, 0.56189
Resistance: 0.56411, 0.56438, 0.56516
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5631 swing low exposes the 0.5619 session low
Close above the 0.5641 ny high and 0.5644 asian high reopens the 0.5652 session high
Friday close into the weekend; Monday open and ISM (Nov 2, 15:00 UTC) could reset this range read
The London high at 0.5652, near the 0.5650 rebound area in the digest, was rejected. Early NY then swept below the asian low at 0.5624 to a day low of 0.5619 despite the softer USD backdrop. Late NY has since compressed between the range low at 0.5631 and the range top at 0.5641, with lower highs capped near the 61.8% fib and price below EMA20/50.
Support: 0.56311, 0.56236, 0.56189
Resistance: 0.56411, 0.56438, 0.56516
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5641 range top breaks the lower-highs line and opens the asian high at 0.5644
Failure to hold the 0.5631 range low exposes the 0.5624 asian low and the 0.5619 day low
Thin post-NY liquidity into the weekly close; NZ Q3 labour data (Tue Nov 3, 21:45 UTC) is the next major NZD driver
18:03 UTC
Intraday range after failed London push · RSI 47 · price 0.56325
London high rejected, NY low reclaimed, late-NY range.
London cleared the Asian range to a 0.5652 london high but was rejected. The NY slide broke the 0.5624 Asian low to a 0.5619 ny low, a false break that was quickly reclaimed as the dollar softened on the Chicago PMI miss. Late NY is now boxed between a 0.5630 range floor and a 0.5641 range top (61.8% fib), with RSI(14) near 47 and price just under both EMAs.
Support: 0.5630, 0.5619
Resistance: 0.5641, 0.5652
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5630 range floor (38.2% fib) puts the 0.5619 ny low back in play
Close above the 0.5641 range top reopens the 0.5652 london high
Friday close and thin late-NY liquidity; Monday's NZ building permits and US ISM are the next scheduled catalysts
17:47 UTC
Sideways after London high was rejected · RSI 49 · price 0.56334
Range 0.5630–0.5641 after a sweep and reclaim of the Asian low.
London took NZDUSD through the asian high to a 0.5652 london high. NY then unwound it with a sweep below the asian low to a 0.5619 day low, reclaimed as USD softened on the Chicago PMI miss. The rebound stalled at the 0.5641 range top near the 61.8% fib, and price has held between the 0.5630 range floor and that top after London close, with RSI(14) flat near 49.
Support: 0.5630, 0.56236, 0.56189
Resistance: 0.56411, 0.56438, 0.56516
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5630 range floor reopens the asian low at 0.5624 and the 0.5619 day low
Close above the 0.5641 range top and asian high at 0.5644 shifts focus back to the 0.5652 london high
Fed speakers Daly and Musalem plus thin late-Friday liquidity could jolt the 11-pip range
No NZD or USD data in the next 8h; NZ Q3 labour data on Nov 3 is the next major test
17:32 UTC
Intraday range after failed London push · RSI 49 · price 0.56359
Higher lows off NY low, capped below rebound high.
London ran to a 0.5652 high before USD pared its early losses, and NY sold through the Asian low to a 0.5619 NY low, a sweep bought straight back. After London close, price is consolidating near the 50% retrace (0.5635) of the London-NY leg. Higher lows from 0.5619 sit at 0.5633, and the rebound high at 0.5641 coincides with the 61.8% level.
Support: 0.56333, 0.56189
Resistance: 0.56411, 0.56438, 0.56516
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5641 rebound high reopens the 0.5644 Asian high and the 0.5652 London high
Break of the 0.5633 higher low ends the rebound structure and exposes the 0.5619 NY low
Friday NY close in ~3.5h; thin late-session liquidity can distort range edges
17:17 UTC
Intraday range after NY reversal, momentum neutral · RSI 51 · price 0.56378
Higher lows off the NY low, capped below rebound high 0.5641.
London broke the asian high to a 0.5652 session high, then NY reversed it, sweeping the Asian low with a spike to the 0.5619 ny low around the Chicago PMI release before snapping back. Late NY is compressing between the 0.5630 swing low and the 0.5641 rebound high, which sits on the 61.8% fib of the London-NY drop. Higher lows are holding on a rising support line, RSI(14) ~51.
Support: 0.56332, 0.56298, 0.56189
Resistance: 0.56411, 0.56438, 0.56516
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5641 rebound high clears the 61.8% fib and puts the 0.5644 asian high back in play
Break below the 0.5633 higher low and 0.5630 swing low breaks the rising support line and reopens the 0.5619 ny low
Thin late-Friday liquidity into the weekly close; next scheduled NZD risk is Building Permits Mon 21:45 UTC
17:04 UTC
Intraday range after NY reversal, momentum neutral · RSI 48 · price 0.56354
False break below Asian low, rebound capped below 0.5641 inside the Asian range.
London pushed above the Asian range to the 0.5652 London high before NY faded the move as USD pared early losses. The selloff ran through the 0.5624 Asian low to an NY low at 0.5619 and quickly reversed back inside the range. Price is now coiling around the 50% retracement near 0.5635, between the 0.5633 NY base and the 0.5641 rebound high, with RSI(14) neutral at 48 and price just under both EMAs.
Support: 0.5633, 0.5630, 0.5619
Resistance: 0.5641, 0.5644, 0.5652
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5641 rebound high and 0.5644 Asian high reopens the 0.5652 London high
Break of the 0.5633 NY base and 0.5630 pullback low exposes the 0.5619 NY low and the false-break read
Friday close in ~4h; thin late-NY trade can distort the session range
Lower highs from 0.5641 against rising lows from 0.5619, a tightening coil.
A soft USD lifted NZDUSD to a 0.5652 London high. The dollar then pared losses and early NY knocked the pair to a 0.5619 NY low. The rebound has stalled at the 61.8% retrace of that fade, just under the 0.5641 NY high, while rising lows near 0.5633 squeeze price into a tight consolidation with RSI(14) flat around 49.
Support: 0.56331, 0.56298, 0.56189
Resistance: 0.56411, 0.56438, 0.56516
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5641 NY high breaks the lower-highs line and opens the 0.5644 Asian high, then the 0.5652 London high
Close below the 0.5633 rising lows ends the coil and exposes the 0.5630 swing low, then the 0.5619 NY low
Fed's Musalem (16:30 UTC) and the Friday weekly close could shift USD tone into session end
Higher lows off 0.5619 under a 0.5641 cap; compressing into late NY.
London broke the Asian range high and ran to a 0.5652 day high. NY reversed that move through the 0.5624 Asian low to a 0.5619 session low, and price recovered after the Chicago PMI miss. The rebound is stalling at the 0.5641 rebound cap, just above the 61.8% fib of the drop, with higher lows building from 0.5630 in late NY.
Support: 0.5630, 0.5624, 0.5619
Resistance: 0.5641, 0.5652
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5641 rebound cap clears the 61.8% fib and puts the 0.5652 day high back in view
Break of the 0.5630 higher low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 0.5624 Asian low and 0.5619 session low
Fed's Musalem at 16:30 UTC could shift USD into the weekly close
16:17 UTC
Intraday downswing, recovering off NY low · RSI 51 · price 0.56389
Higher lows off 0.5619, capped near 0.5641.
London's push to the 0.5652 London high unwound in the NY session as USD pared early losses, and a sweep below the 0.5624 Asian low to 0.5619 was quickly reclaimed. Higher lows along a rising trendline since then have price back inside the Asian range, pressing the 61.8% fib near the 0.5641 swing high that capped the last push.
Support: 0.5630, 0.5624, 0.5619
Resistance: 0.5641, 0.5644, 0.5652
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.5641 swing high and the 0.5644 Asian high reopens the 0.5652 London high
A break of the 0.5630 higher low and the rising trendline exposes the 0.5624 Asian low and the 0.5619 NY low
Fed's Musalem at 16:30 UTC (~15 min) could shift USD tone into the weekly close
16:03 UTC
Intraday two-way, lower high after the London peak · RSI 46 · price 0.56338
Asian range 0.5624–0.5644 broken both ways; price back mid-range under a lower high.
London broke the Asian high and ran to the 0.5652 London high. It was rejected, and early NY flushed below the Asian range to a 0.5619 day low, a false break that was bought back on the softer-USD backdrop. Price now sits near 0.5634, around the 50% fib of that drop, below EMA20 and capped by the 0.5641 NY high on the lower-high line, with the 0.5630 swing low beneath.
Support: 0.5630, 0.5619
Resistance: 0.5641, 0.5644, 0.5652
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5641 NY high and the lower-high line puts the 0.5644 Asian high back in play
Failure to hold the 0.5630 swing low reopens the 0.5619 day low
Fed's Daly (16:00Z, now) and Musalem (16:30Z) could shift USD tone into the weekly close
15:47 UTC
Two-way intraday, rebounding off NY low · RSI 48 · price 0.56378
Failed break below Asian low, higher low at 0.5630 under 61.8% retrace.
London cleared the 0.5644 Asian high to a 0.5652 session high, then reversed hard and broke the Asian low into a 0.5619 session low in early NY. That break failed, and price recovered as the Chicago PMI miss softened USD. It now sits between the 50% and 61.8% retrace of the drop, a higher low at 0.5630 holding beneath the Asian high.
Support: 0.5630, 0.5619
Resistance: 0.5644, 0.5652
What it said to watch
Fed's Daly (16:00Z) and Musalem (16:30Z) within the hour could materially shift this read
M15 close above 0.5644 asian high reopens the 0.5652 session high
Failure to hold the 0.5630 higher low puts the 0.5619 session low back in focus
Rejection at the 61.8% retrace near 0.5639 keeps the NY rebound corrective
False break of Asian low, higher low at 0.5630 under 0.5639 cap.
NY session cut through the 0.5624 asian low to a 0.5619 day low around the Chicago PMI release, then reversed as the miss added to USD softness. Price is now pressing the 61.8% fib of the 0.5652 london high-to-low drop at 0.5639, with a higher low at 0.5630 underneath and RSI(14) flat near 48.
Support: 0.5630, 0.5624, 0.5619
Resistance: 0.5639, 0.5644, 0.5652
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5639 61.8% fib and the 0.5644 asian high reopens the 0.5652 london high
Failure to hold the 0.5630 higher low returns focus to the 0.5624 asian low and 0.5619 day low
Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
15:17 UTC
Intraday pullback from London high, sharp rebound off lows · RSI 44 · price 0.56368
Lower highs since 0.5652; false break below Asian low reversed.
London cleared the Asian high at 0.5644 and set a 0.5652 London high before NY faded the move. A sweep through the Asian low (0.5624) to a 0.5619 session low around the Chicago PMI miss reversed sharply on the soft USD. Price is back at 0.5637, between the 50% and 61.8% retracement and pressing the falling trendline off the London high.
Support: 0.56292, 0.56236, 0.56189
Resistance: 0.56438, 0.56516
What it said to watch
M15 close above the falling trendline and the 0.5644 Asian high reopens the 0.5652 London high
Failure to hold the 0.5629 pullback low puts the Asian low and the 0.5619 session low back in play
Rejection at the 61.8% retracement (~0.5639) keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
15:03 UTC
Two-way intraday, rebound after NY drop · RSI 50 · price 0.56368
False break below Asian range, back inside.
London lifted price above the Asian range to a 0.5652 London high. NY then reversed the move through the Asian low to a 0.5619 NY low around the Chicago PMI miss, and the softer USD helped reclaim it as a false break. Mid-NY, price is back inside the 0.5624–0.5643 Asian range near the 61.8% fib of the London high–NY low drop, with RSI(14) neutral at 50.
Support: 0.5624, 0.5619
Resistance: 0.5643, 0.5652
What it said to watch
A close back below the 0.5624 Asian low reopens the 0.5619 NY low and negates the false break
A close above the 0.5643 Asian high, through the 61.8% fib, puts the 0.5652 London high back in play
Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.5652, NY low at 0.5619 rejected.
London broke the Asian high and ran to a 0.5652 session high, in line with the soft-USD, hawkish-RBNZ rebound in the digest. NY unwound it, sweeping below the Asian low to an NY low at 0.5619 before a sharp rebound bar. Price now sits at the 38.2% retrace of that drop near 0.5631, just above the pre-London low and below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 0.56291, 0.56236, 0.56189
Resistance: 0.56336, 0.56438, 0.56516
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 0.5629 pre-London low re-exposes the 0.5624 Asian low and 0.5619 NY low
Close above the 0.5634 rebound high and the 50% retrace at 0.5635 opens the 0.5644 Asian high
Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
14:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, early NY, basing at Asian low · RSI 27 · price 0.56257
London high rejected, lower highs into NY, Asian range low broken then retested.
London lifted NZDUSD above the 0.5624–0.5644 Asian range to a 0.5652 session high, but NY reversed the whole London-NY drop on lower highs. Price broke the asian low, printing a 0.5619 ny low on the 13:45 UTC Chicago PMI bar even though the data missed. It is now basing just back above 0.5624 with RSI(14) near 27, and the 0.5630 prior lows sit overhead.
Support: 0.5624, 0.5619
Resistance: 0.5630, 0.5644
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.5630 prior lows (38.2% of the London-NY drop) would neutralise the Asian range break
Failure to hold the 0.5619 ny low confirms a lower-low and opens the 0.5600 area
A move back toward the 0.5644 asian high would put the lower highs line back in play
Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) could materially shift USD tone in the next few hours
Lower highs from 0.5652 session high, Asian low broken.
The London push to a 0.5652 session high, in line with the post-RBNZ Kiwi rebound, fully unwound after the in-line ECI as USD clawed back losses. Lower highs carried price through the Asian low near 0.5624 to 0.5619 early in NY, with RSI(14) near 24 and price below both EMAs; the 0.5616 24h low sits just beneath.
Support: 0.56189, 0.56164, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56298, 0.56365, 0.56516
What it said to watch
A close back above 0.5630 london base (38.2% fib) would turn the break of the Asian low into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5619 session low and 0.5616 24h low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5600 round number
0.5637 eci break, inside the 50–61.8% fib zone, is the level any rebound must clear to reopen the 0.5652 session high
Chicago PMI (due now), Daly 16:00 UTC and Musalem 16:30 UTC could shift USD tone during NY hours
14:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since 11:00 UTC · RSI 28 · price 0.56227
London rally to 0.5652 fully reversed; Asian range low broken in the first hour of NY.
The London push to a 0.5652 session high met rejection and has been fully unwound. USD clawed back after the in-line ECI at 12:30 UTC, and the 13:45 UTC bar broke the 0.5624 Asian low, the 0.5630 London low having given way earlier, to print a 0.5619 session low. Lower highs remain intact, with RSI(14) near 28 and ATR(14) around 6 pips.
Support: 0.56189, 0.56102, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56236, 0.56295, 0.56516
What it said to watch
A close back above the 0.5624 Asian low and the 0.5630 London low would turn the range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5619 session low exposes the 0.5610 prior low and then the 0.5600 round number
A close above the lower highs trendline breaks the intraday down-sequence; a retracement of the 0.5652–0.5619 drop beyond 50% weakens the read
Chicago PMI (due now) and Fed's Daly at 16:00 and Musalem at 16:30 UTC could extend or reverse the USD rebound
Lower highs from the 0.5652 session high; price back at the pre-London base.
London's push through the Asian high at 0.5644 topped at the 0.5652 session high and has now fully unwound. Supply capped each bounce in a lower-highs sequence, and the USD clawback after the in-line ECI at the NY open sliced through 0.5637. Price is sitting on the 0.5629 London low with RSI(14) near 33, soft but not oversold.
Support: 0.56291, 0.56236
Resistance: 0.56365, 0.56438, 0.56516
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5629 london low exposes the 0.5624 asian low
Reclaim of the 0.5637 eci bar low breaks the lower-highs chain and puts the asian high at 0.5644 back in play
Chicago PMI now, then Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC), could extend or reverse the USD bounce
13:31 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since London peak · RSI 37 · price 0.56324
London false break above Asian high reversed; NY retesting London low.
London cleared the 0.5644 asian high and printed a 0.5652 session high, which drew a rejection. The first hours of NY have since unwound roughly 85% of the London leg on a run of lower highs, as USD recoups part of its post-FOMC losses. Price is now pressing the 0.5629 london low with RSI(14) near 37, short of an oversold extreme.
Support: 0.56291, 0.56236
Resistance: 0.56384, 0.56438, 0.56516
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5629 london low takes out the London-open pivot and exposes the 0.5624 asian low
Recovery through the 0.5638 lower high and back above the 0.5644 asian high would neutralise the false-break read
Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC (f/c 56.1), then Fed's Daly at 16:00 and Musalem at 16:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
London broke the 0.5644 Asian high on the softer-USD theme and printed a 0.5652 session high, but NY hours have unwound most of the leg. Price is at 0.5634, under the 50% fib at 0.5640, near the 78.6% retracement and just above the 0.5633 NY low, with lower highs since 11:00 UTC.
Support: 0.5633, 0.5629, 0.5624
Resistance: 0.5640, 0.5644, 0.5652
What it said to watch
Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC (f/c 56.1) could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 0.5633 NY low and 0.5629 London low exposes the 0.5624 Asian low
Recovery above the 50% fib at 0.5640 and the 0.5644 Asian high negates the false-break read
Fed's Daly (16:00) and Musalem (16:30) are further USD risk into the NY afternoon
London break of Asian high reversed; back inside Asian range.
London broke the 0.5644 Asian high and ran to a 0.5652 session high on the softer USD tone. Price was then rejected and slid back inside the Asian range during the London-NY transition, with the sharpest drop coming in the 12:30 UTC ECI window. The pullback low at 0.5634 sits on the 78.6% retracement of the London leg, and the 12:15 high at 0.5646 marked a lower high below the 0.5652 top.
Support: 0.56335, 0.56291, 0.56236
Resistance: 0.5644, 0.56516
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5634 pullback low exposes the 0.5629 London low, then the 0.5624 Asian low
Recovery above the 0.5644 Asian high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the session high back in play
Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC, then Fed's Daly at 16:00 UTC and Musalem at 16:30 UTC, could shift the USD leg
HH/HL off 0.5629 swing low; broken Asian high being retested.
London cleared the Asian high at 0.5644 from the open and extended to a 0.5652 session high, carrying NZD's post-RBNZ recovery on a softer USD. The midday pullback held at 0.5639, about 55% of the 0.5629–0.5652 leg and back near the broken Asian high. Buyers stepped in there, and RSI(14) sits neutral near 54 with price just above EMA20.
Support: 0.5644, 0.5639, 0.5629
Resistance: 0.5652
What it said to watch
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) lands on the current bar and could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.5639 pullback low puts price back inside the Asian range and exposes the 0.5629 swing low
M15 close above the 0.5652 session high extends the HH/HL sequence
Fed's Daly (16:00 UTC) and Musalem (16:30 UTC) during NY hours are further USD risk
12:16 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back · RSI 44 · price 0.56415
London HH/HL chain from 0.5629, now retracing toward the 0.5639 pullback low.
London broke the 0.5644 Asian high off a softer USD and ran to a 0.5652 session high. The last hour has retraced to the 0.5639 pullback low near the 50% fib of the London leg, slipping back under the Asian high and EMA20 just ahead of US ECI.
Support: 0.5639, 0.5629, 0.5624
Resistance: 0.5644, 0.5649, 0.5652
What it said to watch
US ECI 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) and Chicago PMI 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.5639 pullback low breaks the London higher-low sequence, exposing the 0.5629 london low and 0.5624 asian low
Reclaiming the 0.5644 asian high keeps the breakout intact; a close above the 0.5652 session high, past the 0.5649 prior high, extends the HH chain
12:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back · RSI 49 · price 0.56437
Asian range broken higher in London; price now retesting the old range top.
London lifted NZD/USD out of the 0.5624–0.5644 Asian range from the 0.5629 london low and pushed it to a 0.5652 session high, helped by a softer USD on lower yields. Late-morning trade has slipped back onto the asian high near 0.5644, the 38.2% retracement of the London leg, with the pullback low at 0.5641 just below and RSI(14) back to neutral around 49.
Support: 0.56438, 0.56411, 0.56291
Resistance: 0.56516
What it said to watch
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) lands within the next two bars and could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the 0.5641 pullback low turns the retest of the asian high into a failed breakout and opens a move back toward the 0.5629 london low
A recovery through the 0.5652 session high would put the London breakout back in play
Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC adds a second USD catalyst in the NY session
Asian range broken higher, retest held, new session high.
London cleared the Asian range high at 0.5644 from a 0.5629 london low. The pullback held 0.5641 twice, and the retest low sits near the 38.2–50% fib of that move, before price pushed to a 0.5652 session high on continued USD softness. RSI(14) is near 65 and not stretched, and ATR is under 4 pips, so the advance is orderly rather than impulsive.
Support: 0.5641, 0.5629, 0.5624
Resistance: 0.5652
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5641 retest low puts price inside the Asian range and negates the breakout
Acceptance above the 0.5652 session high extends the London HH/HL chain
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Loss of the 0.5629 london low unwinds the London advance toward the 0.5624 asian low
London break of Asian range high; higher low at 0.5641, higher high at 0.5652.
London cleared the Asian high at 0.5644 from a 0.5629 London base and extended to a session high of 0.5652. Dips held a swing low at 0.5641 and the 50% fib area, helped by a soft USD. Price is now easing back under the 0.5650 round number with RSI(14) near 60.
Support: 0.56438, 0.56411, 0.56291
Resistance: 0.5650, 0.56516
What it said to watch
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read into the NY open
A close back below the 0.5644 Asian high puts price back inside the Asian range
Failure to hold the 0.5641 swing low and the rising support line breaks the higher-low chain
A close above the 0.5652 session high, clear of the 0.5650 round number, extends the London leg
London broke the Asian range high; higher lows stepping up into the session high.
London cleared the Asian high at 0.5644 from the open and pushed to a 0.5652 session high, extending a higher-low chain off yesterday's 0.5607 low as the softer USD tone carries over. The 09:15 UTC dip held at 0.5641, a higher low just under the old Asian high. RSI(14) near 61 is not stretched.
Support: 0.56438, 0.56411, 0.56291
Resistance: 0.56516
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5641 higher low breaks the HH/HL chain and exposes the 50–61.8% London leg fib at 0.5640–0.5638
Close above the 0.5652 session high extends the London leg beyond the 0.5650 psych level
Loss of rising support near 0.5633 and the pre-London low at 0.5629 would unwind the London breakout
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC land around the NY open and could materially shift this read
11:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher highs through London · RSI 71 · price 0.56497
Asian range broken higher, HH/HL chain since London open.
London cleared the Asian high at 0.5644 from a 0.5629 swing low. The pullback low at 0.5641 held as a higher low on the retest, and the latest leg is now pressing the 0.5650 round number, with RSI(14) near 71. A softer USD on falling yields is doing most of the lifting, per the macro read.
Support: 0.56438, 0.56411, 0.56291
Resistance: 0.5650
What it said to watch
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read; a hot print revives the USD
Failure to hold the 0.5641 pullback low and a break back below the asian high puts the breakout in question
M15 closes above the 0.5650 round number extend the HH chain; rejection there leaves a stall below the level
A break of the london rising line from the 0.5629 swing low signals the intraday HL sequence is ending
Higher lows 0.5607 → 0.5624 → 0.5629 → 0.5641; Asian range high broken in London, now being retested.
The London open lifted price from the 0.5629 London base through the 0.5644 Asian range high to a 0.5649 session high, helped by a soft USD. The pullback held the fib 38.2 at 0.5641, keeping the higher lows chain intact, and price is compressing just under the high. RSI(14) is near 61 and ATR(14) is about 4 pips ahead of US ECI.
Support: 0.56411, 0.56291, 0.56236
Resistance: 0.56488
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5641 fib 38.2 exposes the 0.5629 London base
Clean break of the 0.5649 session high brings the 0.5650 round number into play
Loss of the 0.5624 Asian low breaks the higher lows chain
US ECI 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) and Chicago PMI 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
10:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing after London breakout · RSI 59 · price 0.56427
Asian range high broken, pullback retesting it.
London swept down to a 0.5629 London low, then the 08:00 UTC bar broke the Asian high at 0.5644 and ran to a 0.56488 session high on the softer USD. Price has eased back to retest the Asian high, with the 0.5641 pullback low matching the 38.2% of the London leg; RSI(14) has cooled to about 59.
Support: 0.56411, 0.56291, 0.56236
Resistance: 0.56438, 0.56488, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5641 pullback low puts price back inside the Asian range and opens the 0.5629 London low
Clearance of the 0.56488 session high exposes the 0.5650 round number
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Loss of the 0.5624 Asian low would unwind the London breakout entirely
Higher lows from Asia; London break of Asian high now retesting it.
London open lifted NZDUSD out of the 0.5624–0.5644 Asian range to a 0.5649 london high on a softer USD. Price has since slipped back to the asian high, and the 0.5641 pullback low is holding at the 38.2% fib of the London leg. The rising lows line from the Asian low sits beneath.
Support: 0.5641, 0.5629, 0.5624
Resistance: 0.5644, 0.5649
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5641 pullback low puts the 0.5629 swing low and the rising lows line in play
Recapture of the 0.5649 london high would resume the higher-high chain
Loss of the 0.5624 asian low negates the session's higher-low structure
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
London open dipped to a 0.5629 London low, then broke the 0.5644 Asian high to a 0.5649 session high as the post-FOMC USD softness extended. Price is now compressing on the Asian high, with the 0.5641 pullback low holding at the 38.2% retracement of the London leg. RSI(14) is near 61 and ATR about 4 pips.
Support: 0.5641, 0.5629
Resistance: 0.5649
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5641 pullback low puts price back inside the Asian range and exposes the 0.5629 London low
A close above the 0.5649 London high extends the London leg
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
09:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing after London breakout · RSI 58 · price 0.56438
London open broke above the Asian range; price now retesting the Asian high as a shallow pullback.
The London open leg lifted price through the Asian high at 0.5644 to a session high of 0.5649, extending the soft-USD bounce noted in the digest. Price is now retesting that Asian high, with the 0.5641 pullback low holding near the 38.2% of the London leg and RSI(14) neutral near 58. Rising lows from the Asian low at 0.5624 to the pre-London low at 0.5629 stay intact.
Support: 0.56411, 0.56291, 0.56236
Resistance: 0.56488, 0.5650
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.5641 pullback low puts price back inside the Asian range and exposes the pre-London low at 0.5629
Break of the rising lows line under 0.5629 negates the intraday higher-low sequence and leaves the Asian low at 0.5624 in focus
Clearance of the 0.5649 session high and the 0.5650 round number extends the London breakout
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
09:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing after London push · RSI 61 · price 0.56439
London broke Asian range high; shallow pullback retesting it.
London open broke the Asian high at 0.5644, after a softer USD in Asia lifted the bounce. Price set a session high at 0.5649 and is now back retesting that breakout level, holding the upper half of the London leg with RSI(14) cooling to ~61. Higher lows from the Asian low at 0.5624 and the pre-London low at 0.5629 keep the intraday chain intact.
Support: 0.56438, 0.56291, 0.56236
Resistance: 0.56488
What it said to watch
M15 closes back below the Asian high at 0.5644 would turn the London breakout into a false break
M15 close above the 0.5649 session high resumes the higher-high sequence
Break of the pre-London low at 0.5629 and the higher lows line negates the intraday uptrend
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
09:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back · RSI 58 · price 0.56441
London broke the Asian range high, now retesting the breakout level.
The London open rally from the 0.5629 pre-London low cleared the Asian high at 0.5644 and set a session high at 0.5649. That extends the soft-USD bounce past the 0.5635–0.5640 stall zone. Price is back testing 0.5644, with the ema20 and the 50% retrace of the London leg clustered near 0.5639.
Support: 0.56438, 0.5639, 0.56291
Resistance: 0.56488
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5644 Asian high, then the ema20 near 0.5639, turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 0.5629 pre-London low erases the London leg
Acceptance above the 0.5649 session high resumes the HH sequence
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
London broke above the Asian range; HL chain from the NY low.
London open lifted NZDUSD out of the 0.5624–0.5644 Asian range to a 0.5649 session high, extending the higher-low chain from yesterday's NY low on the softer USD. Price is now back near the old asian high, with RSI(14) at 63.
Support: 0.56438, 0.56291, 0.56236
Resistance: 0.56488
What it said to watch
Holding 0.5644 (asian high) keeps the breakout intact; slipping back inside the Asian range reads as a false break
M15 close below 0.5629 swing low breaks the higher-low trend support
US ECI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Clearing the 0.5649 session high extends the uptrend; repeated rejection there marks a stall
08:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows since Asia · RSI 60 · price 0.56445
London broke above the Asian range high, now retesting it.
Asia held a 0.5624–0.5644 range. The London open dipped to a 0.5629 London low, a higher low versus the Asian low, then broke the Asian high to a 0.5648 session high on a softer USD. Price is sitting on the old Asian high as a retest, with RSI(14) cooled to around 60.
Support: 0.56438, 0.56291, 0.56236
Resistance: 0.56484, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5644 Asian high turns the London breakout into a false break and puts the Asian range back in play
A push through the 0.5648 session high exposes the 0.5650 round number
Failure to hold the 0.5629 London low breaks the higher-low line from the Asian low
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Asian low, Asian range high broken at London open.
London open pushed through the Asian high at 0.5644 to a session high of 0.5648, after an early-London dip to 0.5629 held the higher-low chain from the 0.5624 Asian low. A softer USD into Europe is behind the lift, while NZD's bounce toward 0.5640 has lacked follow-through so far. RSI(14) near 60 is not stretched.
Support: 0.56438, 0.56291, 0.56236
Resistance: 0.56484, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5644 asian high would turn the breakout into a false break
Rejection at the 0.5648 session high or the 0.5650 round number would cap the London leg; its 50% retrace sits near 0.5639
Break of the 0.5629 london low breaks the higher-lows trendline
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read in the NY session
Higher-low chain since yesterday's 0.5607 low; flat cap at the 0.5644 Asian high.
The early London dip to the 0.5629 London low held the 38.2% retracement of the rally from yesterday's 0.5607 prior low. A 9-pip 08:00 UTC bar then lifted price back into the 0.5644 Asian high on softer USD tone, keeping the rising support from the prior low and the Asian low intact. RSI(14) is near 62, not stretched, while the NZD digest flags this rebound toward 0.5640 as lacking follow-through.
Support: 0.56291, 0.56236, 0.56067
Resistance: 0.56438, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5644 Asian high extends the higher-low chain and opens the 0.5650 round number
A third rejection at 0.5644 keeps the session capped beneath the Asian high
Break below the 0.5629 London low snaps rising support and the higher-low chain, exposing the 0.5624 Asian low
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read during NY hours
08:03 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since Asian peak · RSI 43 · price 0.56354
Lower highs and lower lows off 0.5644 inside the Asian range.
Asia lifted the pair from the 0.5624 asian low to a 0.5644 asian high as the USD softened, but the move has since printed a sequence of lower highs. The first hour of London pushed to a 0.5629 london low past the 61.8% retracement before a bounce to 0.5635, with RSI(14) near 43 and price sitting on EMA20.
Support: 0.56291, 0.56236
Resistance: 0.56381, 0.56438
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5638 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the pullback read
Failure to hold the 0.5629 london low exposes the 0.5624 asian low
Recovery through the 0.5644 asian high would mark a break of the Asian range
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read during NY hours
07:47 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 36 · price 0.56298
Lower highs and lower lows off the Asian high, still inside the Asian range.
The Asia session rally from the 0.5624 Asian low to a 0.5644 Asian high, helped by the softer USD, was rejected and has faded into the London open. Lower highs at 0.5638 and 0.5636 sit under a descending trendline, and price is now below the 61.8% retracement of the Asian rally, near 0.5631. That fits the heavy NZD tone. RSI(14) is around 36.
Support: 0.56278, 0.56236, 0.56067
Resistance: 0.56363, 0.56438
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5628 swing low confirms another lower-low and exposes the 0.5624 Asian low
A break of the Asian low opens the path toward the 0.5607 prior low from yesterday's NY session
An M15 close above the 0.5636 lower high and the descending trendline negates the pullback read; 0.5644 Asian high is the next cap
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read during NY hours
07:32 UTC
Intraday pullback inside Asian range · RSI 38 · price 0.56335
Lower highs since the 04:45 UTC Asian high, price at mid-range.
The Asian session lifted from the 0.5624 asian low to the 0.5644 asian high on the softer USD, but there was no follow-through. Since 04:45 UTC price has printed lower highs, the latest at 0.5638. London open dipped to a 0.5631 london low, and price now sits at the 50% retrace of the Asian leg with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 0.56308, 0.56236
Resistance: 0.56381, 0.56438
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5631 london low (61.8% of the Asian leg) exposes the 0.5624 asian low
Close above the 0.5638 lower high breaks the descending trendline and reopens the 0.5644 asian high
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
07:17 UTC
Intraday pullback inside Asian range · RSI 43 · price 0.56357
Lower highs and lower lows since Asian high; London dip held 61.8%.
Asia ran from the 0.5624 Asian low to a 0.5644 Asian high on the softer USD tone, then printed lower highs. Early London extended the pullback to a 0.5631 London low, at the 61.8% retrace of the Asian leg, and has bounced back to the 0.5636 area. Price sits just under EMA20 and above EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral near 43.
Support: 0.56308, 0.56278, 0.56236
Resistance: 0.56381, 0.56438
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5631 London low confirms a lower low and exposes the 0.5628 swing low, then the 0.5624 Asian low
Close above the 0.5638 lower high breaks the descending line and reopens the 0.5644 Asian high
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read in NY hours
07:03 UTC
Intraday pullback after Asian rally · RSI 35 · price 0.5632
Lower highs from Asian high, retracing into 61.8%.
Asia session lifted NZDUSD from the 0.5624 asian low to a 0.5644 asian high on a softer USD. That high was rejected and lower highs have followed, with price now testing the fib 61.8 at 0.5631 into the London open and RSI(14) near 35.
Support: 0.5631, 0.5628, 0.5624
Resistance: 0.5638, 0.5644
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5628 swing low extends the pullback toward the 0.5624 asian low
M15 close above the 0.5638 lower high breaks the sequence of lower highs and reopens the 0.5644 asian high
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Pullback from Asian high into 50% retrace, holding higher-low chain.
Asia session lifted NZDUSD from the 0.5624 Asian low to a 0.5644 Asian high on the softer USD, but the move met rejection there. Late in Asia, ahead of London open, price has slipped to the 50% fib near 0.5634 with RSI(14) at about 42, below EMA20 and sitting on EMA50. Lower highs near 0.5638 are capping rebounds, while the 0.5632 session low and the rising trendline still hold.
Support: 0.56322, 0.56278, 0.56236
Resistance: 0.56385, 0.56438
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5632 session low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.5628 swing low.
Failure at the 0.5628 swing low opens a retest of the 0.5624 Asian low.
Close above the 0.5638 lower highs reopens the 0.5644 Asian high.
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read.
06:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, momentum fading under Asian high · RSI 46 · price 0.56371
Higher lows since 0.5607, capped at 0.5644 Asian high; pulling back inside Asian range.
The rally from Thursday's NY low at 0.5607 extended in Asia on a softer USD tied to US-Iran diplomacy hopes, but stalled at the 0.5644 asian high after repeated tests of the 0.5640 psych level. Price is now mid-range at 0.5637, late Asia ahead of London open, with the 06:00 UTC swing low at 0.5632 extending the rising lows from 0.5624; RSI(14) is neutral near 46.
Support: 0.56322, 0.56278, 0.56236
Resistance: 0.5640, 0.56438
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5644 asian high breaks the Asian range to the upside
Loss of the 0.5632 swing low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 0.5628 spike low
A close below the 0.5624 asian low would mark a break of the Asian range to the downside, near the 50% of the rally fib
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
06:17 UTC
Intraday pullback inside Asian range · RSI 39 · price 0.56329
Lower highs off 0.5644 session high, mid-range at 50% fib.
After yesterday's soft-USD NY recovery from the 0.5607 prior low, Asia ran from the 0.5624 Asian low to a 0.5644 session high. Supply capped it there, and price has slipped back below the EMA20 to 0.5633, the 50% fib of the Asian leg, with RSI(14) near 39 heading into London open.
Support: 0.56278, 0.56236, 0.56067
Resistance: 0.5637, 0.56438
What it said to watch
Loss of the 0.5628 spike low and the 0.5624 Asian low flips the Asian range to a downside break, with the 0.5607 prior low next
Reclaim of the 0.5637 ema20 area puts the 0.5644 session high back in play
Break of the 61.8% fib at 0.5631 extends the retrace
US ECI 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read via the USD leg
06:04 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back · RSI 48 · price 0.56356
HH/HL chain off the Asian low, lower highs since the 0.5644 session high.
Soft USD on US-Iran diplomacy hopes lifted the pair from the 0.5624 Asian low to a 0.5644 session high, extending the NY-session climb off 0.5607. Late Asia is fading on lower highs into the 38.2% of the Asia fib near 0.5636. The 0.5634 pullback low is holding, RSI(14) is back to 48 and price sits just under EMA20.
Support: 0.56344, 0.56278, 0.56236
Resistance: 0.56385, 0.56438
What it said to watch
Loss of the 0.5634 pullback low opens the 0.5628 spike low, then the 0.5624 Asian low
A close above the 0.5639 lower high and the 0.5644 session high restores the HH chain
London open within the hour could break the late-Asia drift
US ECI 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) and Chicago PMI 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
05:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 54 · price 0.56372
Higher lows from 0.5624 Asia low; flat top at 0.5644, pullback to breakout area.
Asia lifted the pair through Thursday's NY range top near 0.5635 to a 0.5644 session high as the USD softened further, but four tests of that high failed. Price is easing to 0.5637 in late Asia, with the 0.5634 swing low retesting the breakout area between the 38.2% and 50% of the Asia rally fib. RSI(14) is neutral at 54.
Support: 0.56344, 0.56278, 0.56236
Resistance: 0.56438, 0.5650
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.5634 swing low turns the breakout into a false break and exposes the 0.5628 spike low
Loss of the 0.5624 Asia low erases the session's gain
Close above the 0.5644 session high extends the Asia leg toward the 0.5650 round number
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 0.5607, marginal higher high at 0.5644 faded.
Asia session extended Thursday's recovery from the 0.5607 post-US-data low. Price cleared the NY high at 0.5635 and printed a session high at 0.5644 as the softer USD outweighed weak NZ consumer confidence. It has since slipped back to the 0.5636 swing low, the 38.2% of the Asia leg fib, ahead of London open, with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 0.56361, 0.56278, 0.56236
Resistance: 0.56438, 0.5650
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5636 swing low exposes the 0.5628 spike low and the Asia trendline
A break of the 0.5624 asian low undoes the Asia leg and the higher-low chain
An M15 close above the 0.5644 session high opens the 0.5650 round number
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read
05:17 UTC
Uptrend, momentum stalling at session high · RSI 48 · price 0.56376
Higher lows since NY low, highs flattening near 0.5643.
A higher-low chain off the 0.5607 NY low, tracked by the rising trendline, carried the Asian session to a 0.5644 session high as the soft USD gave the pair room. Late Asia, price is easing back onto ema20 near 0.5637, with RSI(14) neutral at 48. The 0.5628 swing low and the 0.5624 asian low form the base of the structure.
Support: 0.56372, 0.56278, 0.56236
Resistance: 0.56438, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5628 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.5624 asian low
Hold above the 0.5634 50% retracement of the asia leg keeps the uptrend structure intact
Clean break of the 0.5644 session high opens the 0.5650 round number
Loss of the rising trendline would shift the read to a range
US ECI 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read
05:04 UTC
Uptrend, compressing under Asian high · RSI 59 · price 0.56406
Higher lows since the 0.5607 NY low; flat cap at 0.5642-44.
The NY-session rebound from the 0.5607 low extended through Asia. Price cleared the prior NY high near 0.5635 and printed higher lows at the 0.5628 spike low and the 0.5637 higher low, tracking a rising trendline as the USD stays soft on US-Iran headlines. Late Asia is compressing under the 0.5642-0.5644 Asian high after three tests, with RSI(14) near 59.
Support: 0.5637, 0.5628, 0.5624
Resistance: 0.5644, 0.5650
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.5644 Asian high opens the 0.5650 round number
Losing the 0.5637 higher low and the rising trendline (~0.5635) breaks the HL chain; the asia leg fib 50% sits at 0.5634
Below the 0.5628 spike low, the 0.5624 asian low comes into play and the Asia rally is fully retraced
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read
04:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, compressing under the high · RSI 63 · price 0.56416
Asia break above the NY range top, higher lows holding.
The Asia session broke above the 0.5635 prior high from the NY range as USD softness on US-Iran de-escalation hopes extended. The Asia leg from 0.5624 printed a session high at 0.5643, and the 02:15 UTC flush to the 0.5628 spike low was fully reclaimed. Price is now compressing under the high with a higher low near 0.5637, RSI(14) 63 and ATR(14) about 4.4 pips in late Asia.
Support: 0.56375, 0.5635, 0.56278
Resistance: 0.56434, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5643 session high opens the path to the 0.5650 round number
Loss of the 0.5637 higher low and a close back below the 0.5635 prior high returns price to the NY range
Break of the Asia rising support line or a move below the 0.5628 spike low invalidates the higher-low sequence
London open in ~2h; US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 0.5607 NY low; tight consolidation under 0.5643.
The pair has printed higher lows since Thursday's post-US-data NY-session low at 0.5607. The Asia session cleared the 0.5635 prior high and has stalled at the 0.5643 session high, tested four times. A softer USD on US-Iran peace hopes is driving the lift; RSI(14) near 63 is not stretched and the range is compressing.
Support: 0.56353, 0.56278, 0.56236
Resistance: 0.56426, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5643 session high opens the 0.5650 round number
Loss of the 0.5635 prior high puts the 0.5628 swing low in play; a break there ends the higher-low chain
Below the 0.5624 asian low, the Asia session's gains are fully unwound
US ECI 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read
Break of Thursday NY range, higher lows under 0.5643.
Late Asia session: price held 0.5624 at 00:45 UTC and broke above Thursday's 0.5635 NY high, setting an Asia high at 0.5643. The sharp 02:15 UTC drop to the 0.5628 spike low was bought, and rising lows have since pressed back into that high, in line with the softer USD on US-Iran hopes. RSI(14) near 60 shows no stretch.
Support: 0.56371, 0.56353, 0.56278
Resistance: 0.56426, 0.5650
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.5643 asia high opens the 0.5650 round number
A break of the 0.5637 higher low and the rising lows line puts a retest of the 0.5635 NY high in focus
Loss of the 0.5628 spike low would negate the NY-range breakout
US ECI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read after London open
Higher lows under a flat 0.5643 cap; Asian range 0.5624–0.5643.
The Asia session lifted from the 0.5624 asian low through the prior high at 0.5635, extending the softer-USD move. The 02:15 UTC flush held the swing low at 0.5628, the 78.6% fib of the Asian leg. Three tests of the 0.5643 session high have capped price since, with higher lows building beneath and RSI(14) at 64.
Support: 0.56355, 0.56278, 0.56236
Resistance: 0.56426, 0.5650
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.5643 session high breaks the cap and opens the 0.5650 round number
A slip back below the prior high at 0.5635 turns the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5628 swing low exposes the 0.5624 asian low and ends the higher-low chain
London open around 07:00 UTC is the first test of the Asian range
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read via the USD
Late Asian session is pressing the 0.5643 session high again. The 02:00 UTC rejection there found demand at the 0.5628 spike low, near the 38.2% of the rally fib off the post-GDP 0.5607 low, so the rising higher-low chain is intact. The yesterday-NY prior high at 0.5635 now sits as first support, with a softer USD on US-Iran hopes doing the lifting despite heavy post-RBNZ NZD tone.
Support: 0.5635, 0.56278, 0.56236
Resistance: 0.56426, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5643 session high clears the Asian range top and opens the 0.5650 round number
Break of the 0.5628 spike low and the rising trendline ends the higher-low chain, exposing the 0.5624 asian low
Failure to hold the 0.5635 prior high on a closing basis would turn the push at the highs into a stall
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Fed's Daly/Musalem at 16:00-16:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling below Asia high · RSI 59 · price 0.5638
Higher lows from 0.5624, two tests of 0.5643 capped.
With the USD softer, the Asia session lifted NZDUSD through the prior high at 0.5635 from yesterday's NY session, reaching a 0.5643 Asia high on a chain of higher lows from the 0.5624 Asia low. A sharp drop to the 0.5628 swing low was bought straight back, and a second push stalled at the Asia high. Price is now sitting on 0.5635 with RSI(14) near 59.
Support: 0.5635, 0.5628, 0.5624
Resistance: 0.5643, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5635 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 0.5628 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and leaves a double top at the Asia high
Clean break of the 0.5643 Asia high opens the 0.5650 psych level
London open in ~3.5h will test whether the Asia high/low range holds
US ECI at 12:30 UTC, then Fed's Daly and Musalem, could materially shift this read via USD
03:17 UTC
Uptrend, testing session high · RSI 60 · price 0.5639
Higher lows from 0.5607 NY low; Asian range 0.5624–0.5643.
After choppy trade around the US GDP/PCE releases, the pair based at 0.5607 in NY and has printed higher lows since. A softer USD, with DXY near 101.70 on US-Iran peace hopes, carried Asia from the 0.5624 asian low to a 0.5643 session high. The 02:15 UTC rejection held the 0.5628 swing low, and price is back retesting the session high from above the 0.5635 prior high.
Support: 0.56353, 0.56278, 0.56236
Resistance: 0.56426, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5643 session high opens the 0.5650 round number
Loss of the 0.5635 prior high returns price to the middle of the Asian range
Failure to hold the 0.5628 swing low breaks the higher-lows chain and exposes the 0.5624 asian low
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Fed's Daly and Musalem later could reverse the soft-USD drift behind this leg
03:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extended from Asian low · RSI 60 · price 0.56372
Asia broke above Thursday's NY high at 0.5635; spike rejection at 0.5643 retraced and recovered.
Mid-Asia, the pair broke above Thursday's NY prior high at 0.5635 from the 0.5624 Asian low. The move came as the USD softened on lower yields and Iran diplomacy hopes. A sharp rejection at the 0.5643 session high ran to a 0.5628 spike low before closes recovered back above 0.5635, with RSI(14) near 60 and rising support from the Asian low intact.
Support: 0.56353, 0.56278, 0.56236
Resistance: 0.56426
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5643 session high extends the Asia breakout
Closes back below the 0.5635 prior high return price to Thursday's NY range
Loss of the 0.5628 spike low breaks rising support; 0.5624 asian low is the next swing below
US ECI (12:30 UTC) and Chicago PMI (13:45 UTC) later today could materially shift this read
Higher lows from NY low; false break above prior high.
Asia session poked above yesterday's 0.5635 prior high to a 0.5643 session high before a sharp rejection to a 0.5628 wick low, near the 38.2% fib. That false break leaves price at 0.5633, between the two levels. The leg up from the post-GDP NY low at 0.5607 still holds a higher-low sequence on a softer USD, with RSI(14) neutral at 53.
Support: 0.56278, 0.56236, 0.56067
Resistance: 0.56353, 0.56426
What it said to watch
Close back above the 0.5643 session high negates the false break read
Failure to hold the 0.5628 wick low (38.2% fib) puts the 0.5624 asian low in play
Loss of 0.5624 breaks the higher lows trendline and exposes the 0.5607 ny low
US ECI and Daly/Musalem in the NY session could materially shift this read
Higher lows since NY low; Asia break of prior high faded.
With the USD softer, Asia pushed through the prior high at 0.5635 to a 0.5643 session high, then a 14-pip rejection bar dropped to the 0.5628 spike low. Price is back at 0.5635 with RSI(14) near 58. Higher lows from the post-GDP NY low at 0.5607 and the 0.5624 Asia low keep the rising trendline intact.
Support: 0.5628, 0.5624, 0.5607
Resistance: 0.5635, 0.5643
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5643 session high negates the false break
Failure to hold the 0.5628 spike low and rising trendline exposes the 0.5624 Asia low, then the 0.5607 NY low
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Fed's Daly/Musalem later today could materially shift USD direction
02:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, Asia leg extending · RSI 69 · price 0.56406
HH/HL chain from Asia low, overnight range broken higher.
The Asia session broke the overnight 0.5623–0.5635 range and cleared the prior high at 0.5635, set late in NY. Price printed a session high at 0.5643 as the softer USD tone persisted. RSI(14) is near 69, and the higher-low chain from the 0.5624 Asia low sits well above the ema20 near 0.5631.
Support: 0.56353, 0.5631, 0.56236
Resistance: 0.56426, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 0.5635 prior high turns the breakout into a false break back inside the range
Loss of the 0.5624 Asia low erases the Asia advance and the HH/HL chain
Acceptance above the 0.5643 session high exposes the 0.5650 round number
Pullback holding the Asia rally fib 50% (~0.5633) keeps the higher-low sequence intact
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Fed's Daly/Musalem later could materially shift this read
02:02 UTC
Uptrend, higher lows since NY lows · RSI 64 · price 0.56397
Asian breakout above overnight range.
The Asian session has cleared the 0.5623–0.5635 range that capped price after the NY rally from the 0.5607 us data low. A session high at the 0.5640 round number came as the USD softened. Rising support from that low is intact, and RSI(14) near 64 is warm but not stretched.
Support: 0.5635, 0.5624, 0.5607
Resistance: 0.5640
What it said to watch
A close back below the 0.5635 range top would turn the Asian breakout into a false break
Loss of the 0.5624 asian low and rising support would break the higher-low chain off the 0.5607 us data low
Acceptance above the 0.5640 session high and round number extends the breakout
US ECI at 12:30 UTC, then Daly and Musalem, could materially shift the USD side of this read
The recovery from the 0.5607 NY low, set during the whipsaw after Thursday's US GDP/PCE data, held a higher low at the 0.5624 Asian low. Asia then broke the 0.5635 prior high to a 0.5638 session high. Price is now back on the prior high, with RSI(14) cooling to about 58 and the NY low trend still intact.
Support: 0.56346, 0.56236
Resistance: 0.56378, 0.5640
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5635 prior high turns the Asia push into a false break and puts the 0.5624 Asian low back in play
A close above the 0.5638 session high opens the 0.5640 round number
A break of the NY low trend near 0.5625 ends the higher-low sequence
US ECI at 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read
The whipsaw after Thursday's US GDP/PCE release bottomed at 0.5607 and was fully reversed. NY then based above the 0.5628 range floor. Early Asia session defended the 0.5624 asian low and pushed through the 0.5635 prior high to a 0.5638 session high, extending the higher-low sequence along the post-data rising trendline; RSI(14) sits in the mid-50s with no stretch.
Support: 0.5635, 0.5628, 0.56236
Resistance: 0.56378, 0.5640
What it said to watch
M15 closes holding above the 0.5635 prior high keep the breakout intact; slipping back below turns it into a false break inside the NY range
A close above the 0.5638 session high puts the 0.5640 round number in play
Loss of the 0.5628 range floor and the 0.5624 asian low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC could materially shift this read via the USD leg
01:17 UTC
Sideways after NY-session rally · RSI 52 · price 0.56297
Range 0.5624–0.5635 holding above the NY rally's 38.2% retrace.
NY session swung to a 0.5607 low on the US GDP and PCE prints. Price then rallied to the 0.5635 range top and has held a 0.5624–0.5635 band since. Asia dipped to the 0.5624 asian low, at the 38.2% retrace of the NY rally, after soft NZ consumer confidence, and price is back mid-range near a flat EMA20.
Support: 0.56236, 0.56067
Resistance: 0.56325, 0.56353
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5635 range top breaks the range read; the asian high at 0.5633 is the first cap
Failure to hold the 0.5624 asian low opens the 0.5607 ny low
US ECI at 12:30 UTC and Fed's Daly and Musalem later could materially shift this read
01:04 UTC
Flat, range-bound after NY rally · RSI 47 · price 0.56295
Tight 0.5624–0.5635 range since 16:00 UTC; early Asia holding range floor.
After whipsawing on the US GDP/PCE release, NZDUSD rallied from the 0.5607 prior low to the 0.5635 range top and has ranged beneath it for nine hours. Early Asia dipped to the asian low at 0.5624, in line with the 38.2% fib of that rally, and recovered; RSI(14) near 47 and ATR around 4 pips point to a compressed tape.
Support: 0.5624, 0.56067
Resistance: 0.5635, 0.56365
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5624 asian low breaks the range floor and the 38.2% fib, exposing 0.5621 then the 0.5607 prior low
Close above the 0.5635 range top opens a test of the 0.5637 prior high
US ECI at 12:30 UTC, then Fed's Daly and Musalem, could materially shift this read
00:47 UTC
Short-term range, drifting lower in early Asia · RSI 41 · price 0.5626
Range after NY rally; lower highs since rollover.
USD-firm NY trade after the GDP beat put in the 0.5607 ny low, but the pair rallied to 0.5635 and has ranged 0.5624–0.5635 since. Early Asia is printing lower highs under the 0.5635 session high and pressing the range floor at the 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) at 41 and price under both EMAs.
Support: 0.5624, 0.5621, 0.5607
Resistance: 0.5633, 0.5635, 0.5637
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5624 range floor exposes the fib 50% at 0.5621, then the 0.5607 ny low
Close back above the 0.5633 lower high breaks the Asia lower-high trendline and puts the 0.5635 session high and 0.5637 24h high back in play
US ECI at 12:30 UTC Friday could materially shift this read
00:32 UTC
Recovered intraday, now flat · RSI 46 · price 0.56276
Tight range 0.5626–0.5635 below NY high.
The NY-session dip to 0.5607 after the US GDP beat was fully reversed, with the rally stalling at the ny high of 0.5635 just under Thursday's asia high at 0.5637. Since then price has compressed in a 0.5626–0.5635 band into early Asia, holding the range floor after a spike to the rollover low at 0.5623. RSI(14) is neutral near 46 and price sits just under EMA20, roughly on EMA50.
Support: 0.56257, 0.5623, 0.5621
Resistance: 0.56353, 0.56365
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5626 range floor exposes the 0.5623 rollover low and the fib 50% retracement of the NY rally near 0.5621
Close above the 0.5635 ny high and 0.5637 asia high breaks the range to the upside
US ECI at 12:30 UTC, then Fed speakers Daly and Musalem later Friday, could materially shift this read
00:03 UTC
Flat after NY rebound · RSI 49 · price 0.56318
Tight 0.5626–0.5635 range below the Asia high.
Pair set a day low at 0.5607 during NY hours after the US GDP beat and PCE data, then retraced the full London-NY decline to 0.5635. It has held a 0.5626–0.5635 range for about 8 hours. A late-session dip to 0.5623 held the fib 38.2 of that NY rally and was reversed within one bar, a false break of the range low, while the Asia high at 0.5637 still caps price into the new Asia session.
Support: 0.56258, 0.5623, 0.56067
Resistance: 0.56353, 0.56365, 0.5640
What it said to watch
M15 close above the range high and the Asia high at 0.5637 opens the 0.5640 psych level
Failure to hold the range low at 0.5626 and the fib 38.2 at 0.5623 shifts focus to the 0.5621 50% retrace and then the 0.5607 day low
ATR near 4 pips reflects the thin, compressed Asia range; a break from it is likely to expand the move size
US ECI at 12:30 UTC, followed by Daly and Musalem, could materially shift this read later today