NZD/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Thursday, 29 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the NZD/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:47 UTC
Range after NY recovery, momentum flat · RSI 45 · price 0.56294
Tight 0.5626–0.5635 range capping the NY rally, below Asian high.
NZD/USD whipsawed through the US GDP/PCE release and set a 0.5607 day low before NY lifted it back to the 0.5635 range top. Since then it has held a 9-pip range for about seven hours into the early Asia session. Three rejections at the range top have kept price under yesterday's 0.56365 asia high, with the range low at 0.5626 holding.
Support: 0.5626, 0.5621, 0.5607
Resistance: 0.5635, 0.56365
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.56365 asia high breaks the day's range to the upside
Failure to hold the 0.5626 range low exposes the 0.5621 breakout area at the 50% of the ny rally fib
Loss of 0.5621 puts the 0.5607 day low back in play
US ECI at 12:30 UTC Fri could materially shift this read
23:32 UTC
Range after NY rally, momentum flat · RSI 46 · price 0.56293
7h range 0.5626–0.5635 below Asian high.
The NY rally off the 0.5607 day low, set in the post-GDP/PCE whipsaw, stalled just under the 0.5637 Asian high, and price has held a 0.5626–0.5635 range since. The rollover dip to 0.5623 was a false break of the range floor and was reclaimed within one bar. Early Asia is drifting mid-range on 4-pip ATR, holding the 23.6% level of the rally fib.
Support: 0.5626, 0.5623, 0.56067
Resistance: 0.5635, 0.5640
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5635 range top and the Asian high opens the 0.5640 round number
Failure below the 0.5626 range floor and 0.5623 rollover low exposes the 0.5621 50% rally fib, with the day low at 0.5607 below
US ECI Q3 at 12:30 UTC Fri (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read
23:17 UTC
Flat after NY rebound, edging lower in early Asia · RSI 45 · price 0.5627
0.5626–0.5635 band since 16:00 UTC, range cap tested three times.
NY recovered from the post-GDP NY low at 0.5607 to the 0.5635 range cap, which has turned price back three times since, and the pair has held a 0.5626–0.5635 band since. Early Asia is drifting back onto the range floor as USD stays firm after the GDP beat. RSI(14) is at 45 and price is just below EMA20, sitting on EMA50.
Support: 0.5626, 0.5623, 0.5607
Resistance: 0.5635, 0.5637
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5626 range floor exposes the 0.5623 rollover low and the 0.5621 50% of the NY rally fib
Failure to hold 0.5621 opens a return to the 0.5607 NY low
Break of the 0.5635 range cap brings Thursday's 0.5637 Asia high and 0.5640 into play
US ECI Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) is the next USD catalyst that could reset this range
Higher lows off 0.5607 day low, flat top at 0.5635 ny high.
Asia and London ground lower to a 0.5607 day low just after the US GDP/PCE data, then the NY rally reversed it by ~28 pips to 0.5635 despite the USD-positive prints. Since then price has been confined to a 0.5623–0.5635 range into the new Asia session. The ny high capped three tests, the 0.5626 higher low held, and the rollover spike low at 0.5623 was bought near the 38.2% of the NY rally.
Support: 0.56257, 0.5623, 0.56067
Resistance: 0.56353, 0.56365
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5635 ny high and 0.56365 asian high breaks the range top
Loss of the 0.5626 higher low and the 0.5623 spike low opens a deeper NY rally fib retracement toward 0.5621
Break below the 0.5607 day low reverses the NY recovery entirely
US Q3 ECI (Fri 12:30 UTC, f/c 0.8%) is the next USD driver for this range
22:47 UTC
Post-NY rebound, flattening into range · RSI 48 · price 0.56302
Tight range 0.5626–0.5635 under the Asia high.
NZD rebounded from the 0.5607 day low after the US data hit, with the GDP price index miss tempering USD demand, then stalled into a 0.5626–0.5635 range from mid-NY. Three probes of the range top have been rejected just under the 0.5637 Asia high. The rollover spike low at 0.5623 was reclaimed within one bar, and price is pinned near EMA20 into the Asia open.
Support: 0.56257, 0.5623, 0.56067
Resistance: 0.56353, 0.56365, 0.5640
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.5637 Asia high breaks the range and puts the 0.5640 round number in play, which the digest flags as a rebound cap
Close below the 0.5626 range low exposes the 0.5623 spike low and the 50% fib of the day low-to-range top move near 0.5621
Loss of 0.5621 shifts focus back to the 0.5607 day low
US ECI at 12:30 UTC Fri (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read
22:32 UTC
Recovery from day low, now flat in a tight range · RSI 55 · price 0.56305
Late-NY range 0.5628–0.5635 under the Asia high, triple cap at 0.5635.
NZD climbed off the 0.5607 day low set in the hour after the US GDP/PCE release, despite the firm USD backdrop. Since late NY it has ranged 0.5628–0.5635, with three rejections at the triple cap just under the 0.5637 Asia high. A rollover-hour dip to the 0.5623 spike low, near the 38.2% fib, was reclaimed within one bar; price is sitting on the EMA20 with RSI(14) near 55 as Asia opens.
Support: 0.5628, 0.5623, 0.56067
Resistance: 0.5635, 0.56365
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5635 triple cap and the 0.5637 asia high breaks the range to the upside
Failure to hold the 0.5628 range base exposes the 0.5623 spike low and the 38.2% fib
Loss of the 38.2% fib reopens the 50% retrace near 0.5621 and puts the 0.5607 day low back in focus
US ECI Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) is the next scheduled driver for the USD leg
22:17 UTC
Recovered from day low, now flat beneath the 24h high · RSI 60 · price 0.56344
V-shaped rebound from 0.5607 into a tight 0.5628–0.5635 consolidation.
NZD/USD whipsawed on the 12:30 UTC US data release, bottomed at the 0.5607 day low and rallied about 28 pips during NY hours despite the USD-positive prints. Late NY compressed between the 0.5628 range floor and the 0.5635 NY high. Early Asia is pressing that NY high again, RSI(14) near 60, after a rollover spike to 0.5623 was fully retraced.
Support: 0.5628, 0.5624, 0.56067
Resistance: 0.56353, 0.56365
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5637 24h high breaks the consolidation; a third rejection at the ny high keeps the range intact
Loss of the 0.5628 range floor exposes the 38.2 fib at 0.5624, with the 0.5607 day low below that
Thin Asia session liquidity; US ECI Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) is the next USD catalyst
Tight box 0.5628–0.5635 under the session high, above the 0.5607 day low.
NZD/USD bottomed at the 0.5607 day low around the USD-positive US GDP and claims prints, then recovered through NY hours to retest the 0.5635 session high just under the 0.5637 Asia high. Early Asia session is boxed between the 0.5628 range floor and that cap. A thin rollover wick to the 0.5623 rollover low was fully retraced, and RSI(14) sits mid-50s.
Support: 0.5628, 0.5623, 0.56067
Resistance: 0.56353, 0.56365
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.5637 Asia high clears the session-high cap.
Loss of the 0.5628 range floor and the 0.5623 rollover low, near the 38.2% of the NY rally fib, puts the 0.5607 day low back in focus.
US ECI Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read.
Higher lows below ny high, tight 0.5626–0.5635 band.
NZDUSD based three times near 0.5607–0.5609 through London and the US data window, with the day low at 0.5607 printed after the GDP beat and in-line PCE. From there it climbed about 28 pips through NY to the 0.5635 ny high. Price is now pinned just under the 0.5637 asian high, with a higher low at 0.5629 above the 0.5626 swing low; RSI(14) is neutral near 58 and ATR is about 3 pips as liquidity thins after the NY close.
Support: 0.56287, 0.56257, 0.56067
Resistance: 0.56353, 0.56365
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5637 asian high clears the day's range top and the NY rally ceiling
Failure to hold the 0.5629 higher low turns the band into a range; loss of the 0.5626 swing low unwinds the NY higher-low sequence, with the day low at 0.5607 the next reference
US ECI Fri 12:30 UTC and Fed's Daly/Musalem later Friday could materially shift this read
21:33 UTC
Recovering from day low, stalling below Asia high · RSI 53 · price 0.56309
Higher lows off 0.5607 base; tight late-NY range 0.5626–0.5635.
Three London-NY tests of 0.5607–0.5609 held, the last one right after the US GDP beat, and the rebound carried to a 0.56353 session high just under the 0.56365 Asia high. Price is now drifting at EMA20 inside a 0.5626–0.5635 range as NY hands over to Asia, with RSI(14) neutral near 53 and rising lows still intact.
Support: 0.56257, 0.5621, 0.56067
Resistance: 0.56353, 0.56365
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.56365 Asia high breaks the range top and extends the rising lows sequence
Loss of the 0.56257 swing low breaks the rising lows trendline and exposes the fib 50% at 0.5621
Return below the 0.56067 day low negates the triple bottom
US ECI Fri 12:30 UTC and Daly/Musalem later could materially shift the USD leg
21:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the day low, momentum flattening · RSI 52 · price 0.56309
Higher lows from 0.5607, compressing below the Asia high.
USD demand after the Q3 GDP beat pressed the pair to a triple bottom at the 0.5607 day low, but NY recovered about 28 pips back toward the 0.5636 Asia high. Late NY is compressing in a 0.5626–0.5635 band on rising support, RSI(14) neutral near 52, with little reaction to the 21:00 UTC consumer confidence release.
Support: 0.56257, 0.5621, 0.56067
Resistance: 0.56365, 0.5640
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5636 Asia high opens the 0.5640 round number
Loss of the 0.5626 NY pullback low breaks the rising support and higher-low chain; the fib 50% at 0.5621 is next
Return below the 0.5607 day low negates the triple bottom
US ECI (Fri 12:30 UTC) and Fed's Daly/Musalem could materially shift this read
21:05 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at Asian high · RSI 55 · price 0.5632
Higher lows from 0.5607 day low, capped at 0.5635-0.5637.
NZD/USD found buyers three times at 0.5607-0.5609 through London and the NY whipsaw after the US GDP beat. Since the day low it has rallied about 28 pips and is retesting the Asian high near 0.5636, with two late-NY stalls at 0.5635; RSI(14) is neutral near 55 and the 0.5626 swing low still anchors the higher-low sequence.
Support: 0.56257, 0.5621, 0.56067
Resistance: 0.56365, 0.5640
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5637 Asian high opens the 0.5640 psych level
Loss of the 0.5626 swing low breaks the rally support trendline and exposes the fib 50% at 0.5621
ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence (21:00 UTC) could jolt thin late-NY/Asia-open liquidity
Return below 0.5607 day low would negate the triple bottom base
20:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend off NY low, momentum flattening · RSI 57 · price 0.56333
Higher lows since NY session low, pressing Asian high.
NY hours whipsawed after the US GDP beat and printed the day low at 0.56067. Price then reversed into a higher-low chain at 0.56255 and the 0.56287 swing low. Late NY is now pressing the 0.56365 asia high that capped the early Asian bounce; RSI(14) at 57 is neutral and ATR is compressed near 3.6 pips.
Support: 0.56287, 0.56255, 0.56067
Resistance: 0.56365, 0.5640
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56365 asia high opens the 0.5640 round number
Break of the 0.56287 swing low, then the 0.56255 higher low, ends the higher-low chain and the trendline from the day low
Failure back toward the 0.56067 day low would retrace the full NY rally (fib 61.8% near 0.5618)
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence at 21:00 UTC could move this read in thin late-NY liquidity
20:33 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pressing Asian high · RSI 62 · price 0.56342
Higher lows from the 0.5607 NY low, latest high 0.5635.
NZD put in a 0.5607 session low at 14:00 UTC, after the post-GDP spike faded despite the US beat. It has since built higher lows, and late NY is pressing the 0.5636 Asian high with RSI(14) near 62. The 18:30 UTC ny pullback held at 0.5626, near the 38.2% retrace of the rally, and the 0.5629 swing low sits just beneath price.
Support: 0.56287, 0.56257, 0.56067
Resistance: 0.56365, 0.5640
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5636 Asian high opens the psych 0.5640 area
Break of the 0.5629 swing low and the 0.5626 ny pullback low ends the higher-low chain
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence at 21:00 UTC, with thin late-NY liquidity, could shift this read
Loss of the 0.5607 session low unwinds the post-data rally
20:17 UTC
Recovering from NY low, flattening below Asian high · RSI 55 · price 0.56328
Tight late-NY range 0.5626–0.5635, higher swing low after the 0.5607 base.
After a choppy reaction to the 12:30 UTC US GDP/PCE data, the pair based at the 0.5607 NY low and rallied to a 0.5635 session high, still capped just under the 0.5637 Asian high. Late-NY trade is a tight 0.5626–0.5635 range, with the 0.5626 swing low holding above the fib 38.2 retracement of the NY rally. RSI(14) is neutral near 55 and ATR(14) is about 3.4 pips.
Support: 0.56257, 0.5624, 0.56067
Resistance: 0.56346, 0.56365
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.5637 asian high breaks the range top and the Asia-session cap
Failure to hold the 0.5626 swing low exposes the fib 38.2 near 0.5624, then the post-data spike area at 0.5621
A loss of the 0.5607 ny low would erase the NY rally
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence at 21:00 UTC could jolt thin post-NY liquidity
US ECI Q3 (Fri 12:30 UTC) is the next USD-side catalyst
20:03 UTC
Recovery stalling, sideways late NY · RSI 49 · price 0.56293
V-recovery from session low, now consolidating below Asia high.
NZD/USD recovered about 28 pips from the 0.5607 session low after the US data. In-line core PCE and soft spending/income did not extend the USD bid. Late NY is consolidating 0.5626–0.5635 just under the 0.5635 NY high and 0.5637 Asia high, with RSI(14) neutral near 49 and price hugging EMA20.
Support: 0.56257, 0.56207, 0.56067
Resistance: 0.56346, 0.56365
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5637 Asia high breaks the day's range top
Loss of the 0.5626 NY pullback low exposes the fib 50% retracement near 0.5621
Break below the 0.5607 session low resumes the London-session decline
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence at 21:00 UTC and Fri US ECI Q3 (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
19:47 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling below range top · RSI 56 · price 0.56314
V-reversal off NY day low, now a tight consolidation 0.5626–0.5635 under the Asia high.
NY swept the London lows near 0.5608 after the US GDP/PCE data, printing a 0.5607 day low before a 28-pip reversal to the 0.5635 NY high despite the firm USD backdrop. Late NY has compressed into a 0.5626–0.5635 range just under the 0.5637 Asia high. RSI(14) is neutral near 56 and ATR is shrinking to about 4 pips.
Support: 0.56257, 0.56207, 0.56067
Resistance: 0.56346, 0.56365
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5637 asia high breaks the 24h range top
Failure to hold the 0.5626 range low exposes the fib 50% at 0.5621, then the 0.5607 day low
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence at 21:00 UTC could jolt the thin late-NY tape
The pair ground lower through London to a session low of 0.5607 after the US data dump, then turned higher as the personal spending and income misses offset the GDP beat. It broke the 0.5621 london cap and reached a ny high of 0.5635. Since then, late-NY trade has compressed into a 0.5626-0.5635 box just under the 0.5637 Asia high, with ATR down near 4 pips.
Support: 0.56257, 0.5621, 0.56067
Resistance: 0.56346, 0.56365
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5635 ny high and the 0.5637 asia high extends the recovery leg
Loss of the 0.5626 box low exposes the 0.5621 london cap and 38.2% retracement
Back below 0.5621 puts the 0.5607 session low back in focus
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence at 21:00 UTC is the next NZD print in thin late-NY liquidity
19:17 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling below Asia high · RSI 47 · price 0.5628
Triple bottom at 0.5607 broke above 0.5621; late-NY consolidation 0.5626–0.5633.
Lows at 0.5608, 0.5609 and the 0.5607 session low held through London and the US GDP beat. The NY rally then broke the 0.5621 breakout level and topped at the 0.5635 NY high, just under the 0.5637 Asia high. After London close, price is holding a shallow 0.5626–0.5633 consolidation above the 0.5626 pullback low, with RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 0.56257, 0.56211, 0.56067
Resistance: 0.56346, 0.56365
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5626 pullback low exposes the 0.5621 breakout level and the 38.2% NY rally fib near 0.5624
Loss of the 0.5621 breakout level would put the triple-bottom read in doubt and turn focus back to the 0.5607 session low
A close above the 0.5635 NY high and 0.5637 Asia high would break the session range to the upside
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence at 21:00 UTC could jolt the thin late-session tape
Late-NY range 0.5626–0.5635, capped beneath the Asia high.
Despite USD firming on the Q3 GDP beat, NY rebounded from the 0.5607 session low to a 0.5635 NY high, just shy of the 0.5637 Asia high. Late NY is now compressing in a 0.5626–0.5633 band around the 23.6% fib, with RSI(14) flat near 50 and ATR at about 4 pips.
Support: 0.56257, 0.56207, 0.56067
Resistance: 0.56346, 0.56365
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.5626 range low opens the fib 50% retracement at 0.5621
Loss of 0.5621 exposes the 0.5607 session low and unwinds the NY recovery
Clearance of the 0.5635 NY high and 0.5637 Asia high breaks the late-NY range to the upside
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence at 21:00 UTC could jolt the thin late-NY tape
NY rally into tight consolidation below Asia high.
NZD/USD absorbed the hot US GDP and claims data. Price climbed from the 0.5607 day low at 13:30 UTC to a 0.5635 NY high, just shy of the 0.5637 Asia high. Late NY has compressed into a 0.5628–0.5632 consolidation and is now slipping under that range floor, sitting on EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral at 53.
Support: 0.5621, 0.5607
Resistance: 0.5628, 0.5635, 0.5637
What it said to watch
Holding below the 0.5628 range floor puts the 0.5621 ny pullback in play, near the 50% retrace of the NY rally
Failure at 0.5621 re-exposes the 0.5607 day low
M15 close above the 0.5635 ny high brings the 0.5637 Asia high back into focus
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence at 21:00 UTC lands in thin post-NY liquidity and could shift this read
Triple-tested day low, rally then tight range under Asia high.
The 0.5607-0.5609 day low held on a third test after the US GDP/PCE release, as the soft GDP price index offset the headline beat. Price then rallied to a 0.5635 NY high just under the 0.5637 Asia high. Since 16:00 UTC it has compressed into a 0.5628-0.5633 range above the 23.6% fib, RSI(14) neutral near 55 and ATR(14) under 5 pips.
Support: 0.5628, 0.56205, 0.56067
Resistance: 0.56346, 0.56365
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5637 Asia high breaks the session ceiling and the post-data range
Loss of the 0.5628 range low exposes the 0.5620 higher low, the 50% fib of the NY rally
Failure at 0.5620 puts the 0.5607 day low back in play
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence at 21:00 UTC could break the late-NY compression
18:17 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling below Asian high · RSI 63 · price 0.56319
NY rally off a triple-tested low, now a tight consolidation 0.5628–0.5635.
NZDUSD put in a triple bottom at 0.5607–0.5608 through London and early NY. The NY low at 0.56067 came after the mixed US GDP/PCE set, where the GDP beat was offset by soft income, spending and deflator details. The NY rally then cleared the london high at 0.56239 and topped at the ny high of 0.56346, and late NY is now compressing in a 0.5628–0.5635 band just under the asian high, with RSI(14) near 63 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 0.5628, 0.56239, 0.56067
Resistance: 0.56346, 0.56365, 0.56383
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.56365 asian high opens a test of the 0.56383 fed bar high
Loss of the 0.5628 range base puts the 0.56239 london high in play as a retest, near the NY rally fib 50%
Break back below the 0.56067 ny low would negate the triple bottom
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence at 21:00 UTC could move price out of the late-session range
Post-NY rally consolidation 0.5628–0.5635 beneath the Asia high.
After the US GDP/PCE data, NY swept London's lows to a 0.5607 session low. Demand stepped in and price rallied about 28 pips to the 0.5635 NY high as soft income, spending and GDP-deflator details offset the GDP beat. Price is now coiling in a tight consolidation between the 0.5628 range low and the NY high, just under the 0.5637 Asia high, with RSI(14) neutral near 58 and ATR(14) compressed to about 4 pips.
Support: 0.5628, 0.56205, 0.56067
Resistance: 0.56346, 0.56365, 0.56383
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5637 Asia high breaks the consolidation; the 0.5638 fed spike high is the next cap
Loss of the 0.5628 range low (fib 23.6%) exposes the 0.5620 pullback low near the 50% retracement of the NY rally
A break back below the 0.5607 session low unwinds the NY rally
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence at 21:00 UTC lands in thin late-NY liquidity and could jolt the range
17:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing late NY · RSI 63 · price 0.56308
Triple bottom at 0.5607, breakout to 0.5635, tight flag below Asia high.
London and early NY held three lows near the 0.5607 day low. Price then rallied after the US GDP/PCE data, with the soft GDP price index offsetting the growth beat, clearing the 0.5624 london high and tagging a 0.5635 ny high. Since London close it has held a 0.5628–0.5632 range floor flag just under the 0.5637 asia high and 0.5638 fed high, RSI(14) cooling to the low 60s.
Support: 0.5628, 0.5624, 0.5607
Resistance: 0.56346, 0.56365, 0.56383
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5637 asia high and 0.5638 fed high would extend the breakout beyond the ny high
Loss of the 0.5628 range floor exposes the 0.5624 london high, the 38.2% of the NY rally fib
Break back below 0.5621 (50% of the rally) undermines the triple bottom and reopens the 0.5607 day low
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence at 21:00 UTC could shift this thin late-session read
Triple bottom at 0.5607 broken higher, late-NY consolidation under the session high.
A triple bottom at the 0.5607 day low broke its 0.5621 neckline after the US GDP release. The soft GDP price index offset the growth beat, and the NY rebound printed a 0.5635 ny high. Late NY is consolidating on a 0.5628 shelf below the 0.5637 asia high, with RSI(14) neutral near 58.
Support: 0.5628, 0.5621, 0.56067
Resistance: 0.56346, 0.56365
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5637 asia high clears the session range top
Loss of the 0.5628 shelf exposes the 0.5621 neckline, near the 50% retracement of the NY rebound fib
A break back below the 0.5607 day low negates the triple bottom
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence at 21:00 UTC could shift this read
17:17 UTC
Intraday recovery, momentum flattening late NY · RSI 61 · price 0.56289
Double bottom near 0.5607-0.5608, neckline break, holding a shelf below the Asia high.
The US GDP beat whipsawed price into a 0.5607 day low early in the NY session. That low double-bottomed with the London lows, and the 0.5621 neckline break fed a 28-pip NY rally to the 0.5635 ny high, just under the 0.5637 asia high. After London close, price is holding a tight 0.5628-0.5632 ny shelf with RSI(14) near 61 and only a shallow retrace of the ny rally so far.
Support: 0.5628, 0.5621, 0.56067
Resistance: 0.56346, 0.56365, 0.56383
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5628 ny shelf exposes the 0.5621 neckline, near the 38.2% of the ny rally
Failure to hold the 0.5621 neckline negates the double bottom and reopens the 0.5607 day low
Clearing the ny high at 0.5635 and the asia high at 0.5637 brings the 0.5638 fed high into view
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence at 21:00 UTC could jolt thin late-session liquidity
16:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the NY low, momentum easing · RSI 63 · price 0.56309
Triple bottom at 0.5607–0.5609 completed; HH/HL chain since 14:00 UTC.
The 14:00 UTC sweep to the 0.56067 session low marked a third failed test of the 0.5607–0.5609 floor after the US GDP/PCE spike was faded. The following break of the 0.5621 neckline completed a triple bottom. Price is holding a 0.5628 higher low and pressing the 0.5635 NY high, just under the 0.5637 Asian high and the 0.5638 Fed high, with RSI(14) ~63 and not stretched.
Support: 0.5628, 0.5621, 0.56067
Resistance: 0.56346, 0.56365, 0.56383
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5637 Asian high and the 0.5638 Fed high clears the last intraday cap
Loss of the 0.5628 higher low, then the NY rising line, puts the 0.5621 neckline retest in play
Close back below the 0.5621 neckline (50% fib) undoes the triple bottom; 0.56067 session low then exposed
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence at 21:00 UTC could jolt the thin post-NY tape
16:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend off session low, stalling under Asian high · RSI 61 · price 0.5629
HH/HL chain since 14:00 UTC low; capped at 0.5635-0.5637.
London's 0.5608 base held three times before the 0.5607 session low at 14:00 UTC, and NZD rebounded in the NY session as the soft US GDP deflator offset the 3.4% growth beat. The HH/HL chain stalled at the 0.5635 session high, just under the 0.5637 Asian high and the 0.5638 Fed high, with RSI(14) cooling near 61 and price holding the 0.5628 pullback low.
Support: 0.5628, 0.56205, 0.56067
Resistance: 0.56346, 0.56365, 0.56383
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5637 asian high clears the 0.5635-0.5640 cap, with the 0.5638 fed high the last spike high in the window
Loss of the 0.5628 pullback low exposes the 0.5620 swing low and the 50% retrace of the post-data rally
Break below the 0.5620 swing low and the rising trendline undercuts the NY HH/HL chain; 0.5607 session low below
ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence at 21:00 UTC; US ECI Fri 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain off NY session low, pressing range top.
London and early NY slipped below the Asian low to a session low at 0.5607 around the US GDP/PCE data, then reversed. The GDP beat was offset by a soft deflator, and price has since built a higher low chain about 28 pips up to 0.5635. It now sits just under the asian high at 0.5637 and the 24h high at 0.5638, the 0.5635-0.5640 cap that stalled the rebound earlier, with RSI(14) at 64.
Support: 0.56255, 0.56206, 0.56067
Resistance: 0.56365, 0.56383
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5638 24h high clears the asian high and the range top
Loss of the 0.56255 higher low breaks the trendline and the HH/HL chain, exposing the 50% fib at 0.5621
Rejection at the asian high would keep the 0.5607–0.5638 range intact
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence at 21:00 UTC lands in thin post-NY liquidity
HH/HL chain off 0.5607 session low, testing Asian range top.
After the US GDP/PCE release, NZDUSD swept the London lows near 0.5608 to a 0.5607 session low. It then broke the 0.5621 post-data high and built higher lows to a 0.5632 session high. In-line core PCE and a soft GDP deflator tempered the USD bid, and late in the NY session price is approaching the 0.5637 Asian high with RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 0.5625, 0.5621, 0.56067
Resistance: 0.56321, 0.56365, 0.56383
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 0.5637 Asian high keeps the 0.5607–0.5637 intraday range intact; an M15 close above the 0.5638 prior high extends the HH chain
Failure to hold the 0.5625 pullback low breaks the rising lows trendline
An M15 close back below the 0.5621 breakout level negates the post-data rebound; the 0.5607 session low is then back in focus
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence at 21:00 UTC is the next scheduled NZD risk
15:47 UTC
Intraday rebound, higher lows since 14:00 UTC · RSI 62 · price 0.56269
Triple-tested base near 0.5607, HH/HL chain inside Asian range.
NY session rebounded from a 0.5607 session low, the third test of the 0.5608 area since London, and cleared the 0.5621 post-data highs despite a firm USD after the Q3 GDP beat. Higher lows since 14:00 UTC carry price back into the upper half of the Asian range, with the session high at 0.5630 capping so far.
Support: 0.56205, 0.5615, 0.56067
Resistance: 0.5630, 0.56365, 0.56383
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5620 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
Slip back under the 0.5615 neckline (50% fib) negates the triple-bottom breakout
Close above the 0.5637 Asian high and 0.5638 FOMC high clears the full 24h range
US ECI Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) could materially shift this read
London and the US GDP/PCE release at 12:30 UTC produced three lows at 0.5608, 0.5609 and 0.5607. The NY session then broke the 0.5621 neckline despite the firm USD read, and the higher-low chain is now pressing the fib 78.6 at 0.5630 of the Asia high-to-session low drop. RSI(14) at 65 is warm but not stretched, and the 0.5637/0.5638 Asia high and Fed high pair sits just above.
Support: 0.56248, 0.56211, 0.56067
Resistance: 0.56301, 0.56365, 0.56383
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5637 (asia high) clears the intraday cap and exposes the 0.5638 fed high
Rejection at the fib 78.6 and a loss of the 0.5625 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline
Back below the 0.5621 neckline negates the triple-bottom breakout and re-opens the 0.5607 session low
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence at 21:00 UTC could jolt NZD in thin late-NY trade
London range 0.5607–0.5621 broken higher in early NY, price under 0.5630.
US GDP/PCE at 12:30 UTC whipsawed a London range that held at 0.5608 three times. A final dip to the 0.5607 session low at 14:00 UTC reversed into a 22-pip rebound through the 0.5621 range top, despite the GDP beat. Price is now pressing the 0.5630 prior high, with the 0.5637 Asia high and post-Fed spike just above.
Support: 0.5621, 0.5607
Resistance: 0.5630, 0.5637
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5621 range top turns the break into a false break
Rejection at the 0.5630 prior high keeps the 0.5637 asia high capping the session range
Hold above 0.5637 clears the asia high and the post-Fed spike high
Loss of the 0.5607 session low would undo the triple-bottom rebound
ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence at 21:00 UTC tonight
London broke the asian low at 0.5611, and the swing after the mixed US GDP/PCE set a 0.5607 session low that failed to hold. The NY rebound cleared the broken tl of lower highs from the 0.5636 asian high and is stalling at the fib 61.8 near 0.5626.
Support: 0.5621, 0.5611, 0.5607
Resistance: 0.5626, 0.5636
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 0.5621 (broken tl) puts the false-break read in doubt
Failure to hold the 0.5611 asian low reopens the 0.5607 session low
Close above the 0.5626 fib 61.8 opens the 0.5636 asian high
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence at 21:00 UTC could move NZD in thin post-NY trade
14:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend from Asian high, sharp late-NY rebound · RSI 59 · price 0.56244
Range 0.5607–0.5637; false break of London low, price back at London high.
The US GDP and claims beat drove choppy NY trade that dipped through the London low to a 0.56067 NY low. That false break reversed with an ~18-pip rebound back to the 0.56239 London high, now capped at the 61.8% fib of the Asian high-to-NY low decline, with RSI(14) near 59 and ATR around 7 pips.
Support: 0.56239, 0.56106, 0.56067
Resistance: 0.56251, 0.56365, 0.56383
What it said to watch
Close back below the 0.56239 London high returns price to the middle of the range
Hold above the 61.8% fib at 0.56251 exposes the 0.56365 Asian high and 0.56383 Fed spike high
Break below the 0.56067 NY low and the 0.56106 Asian low turns the false break into a lower-low
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence at 21:00 UTC tonight could jolt thin post-NY liquidity
14:33 UTC
Intraday downtrend from Asian high, now basing · RSI 53 · price 0.56193
London-NY range 0.5607–0.5622 below lower highs.
Since the 0.56365 Asian high, NZD/USD has printed lower highs. London and NY have compressed into a 0.5607–0.5622 band. The firm US GDP and claims prints at 12:30 UTC produced two-way churn, and the 14:00 UTC dip to a 0.56067 session low below the London low reversed sharply. Price is now retesting the 0.56215 NY high, which also marks the 50% fib of the Asian high-to-session low drop, with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 0.56067, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56215, 0.56239, 0.56365
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56215 NY high and the 0.56239 London high breaks the lower-high sequence; the 0.56365 Asian high sits above
Rejection at the 50% fib or the NY high keeps the 0.5607–0.5622 range intact
Failure to hold the 0.56067 session low reopens the 0.5600 round number, OCBC's pivot
Lagarde's ECB press conference and the London close could shift USD tone mid-NY session
Lower highs pressing into a flat 0.5607-0.5609 base.
London broke below the Asian range low near 0.5611 and has since held a flat base at the 0.5608 london low and 0.5607 session low. The US GDP and claims beat at 12:30 UTC spiked the pair to the 0.5621 ny high, which was rejected twice during NY hours. That rejection extends the lower-highs sequence from the 0.5624 london high, with price below both EMAs and RSI(14) neutral at 46.
Support: 0.56067, 0.56079, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56211, 0.56239, 0.56365
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5607 session low breaks the base and exposes 0.5600 psych
M15 close above the 0.5621 ny high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens 0.5624, then the 0.5637 asian high
Lagarde's ECB press conference today could shift broad USD and this range
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence at 21:00 UTC is a late-session NZD risk
London slipped out of the 0.5611–0.5637 Asian range to a 0.5608 session low. The 12:30 UTC US GDP beat and firm claims produced a spike to 0.5621 that was rejected. Early in the NY session, price is coiling between the session low, tested three times, and a line of lower highs from the 0.5624 London high. RSI(14) is neutral near 52.
Support: 0.56105, 0.56079
Resistance: 0.56211, 0.56239, 0.56365
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5608 session low, after the 0.5610 post-data low gives way, extends the London lower-low sequence
M15 close above the lower highs line near 0.5621 and the 0.5624 London high reopens the 0.5637 Asian high
ECB/Lagarde later today could jolt USD and break the post-data range
13:48 UTC
Sideways after lower highs from the Asian peak · RSI 48 · price 0.56114
0.5608–0.5621 range since London, lower highs below the asian high.
NZD/USD has been boxed in a 0.5608–0.5621 range since London after fading from the 0.5637 asian high. The US data spike (GDP beat, in-line core PCE) was rejected at the 0.5621 range top and a second NY-session test failed there too. The 0.5608 session low has held three times.
Support: 0.56079, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56211, 0.56365
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5608 session low breaks the range and brings the 0.5600 round number into play
Close above the 0.5621 range top and the 0.5622 50% retrace of the drop from the asian high reopens 0.5637
ECB decision and Lagarde during NY hours could move USD broadly and shift this read
13:32 UTC
Sideways-to-lower, lower highs since Asia · RSI 54 · price 0.56168
Compression between flat 0.5608 floor and descending highs.
The US GDP beat and in-line PCE at 12:30 UTC spiked the pair to a 0.5621 data high, but that move was rejected inside the bar. Price has since settled at 0.5617, just under EMA50, in the first hour of NY. The 0.5608 day low has held three times across London and NY, while highs have stepped lower since the 0.5636 Asia high, leaving price compressed beneath the lower-highs line.
Support: 0.56085, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56211, 0.56365
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5608 day low confirms a lower low and exposes the 0.5600 psych pivot
Close above the 0.5621 data high and the lower-highs line breaks the compression; the 0.5636 asia high is the next cap
ECB decision and Lagarde presser today could jolt USD and shift this read
13:17 UTC
Sideways, lower highs since London open · RSI 53 · price 0.56155
0.5608–0.5624 range, flat floor, descending cap.
London slipped below the Asian low to a 0.5608 session low, which has held on three tests, and price is now back near 0.5615. The US data (GDP beat, in-line core PCE, lower claims) spiked the pair to a 0.5621 data high that reversed fully. Highs at 0.5624 (London high) and 0.5621 form a descending cap over the flat floor.
Support: 0.56085, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56211, 0.56239, 0.56365
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5608 session low breaks the range floor and puts the 0.5600 psych level in play
Close above the descending cap and the 0.5624 London high ends the lower-high sequence, with the 0.5637 Asian high next
Repeat rejection at the 0.5621 data high keeps the range read intact
ECB decision and Lagarde later today could move USD and shift this read
Descending highs from 0.5637 Asia high; double bottom at 0.5608 London low.
London broke the 0.5611 Asian low but held a double bottom at the 0.5608 London low. The 12:30 GMT US PCE/GDP bar lifted price to a 0.5621 data high, where the descending line from the 0.5637 Asia high produced a rejection; early NY now sits just above EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 0.56106, 0.56079
Resistance: 0.56211, 0.56239, 0.56365
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5621 data high and the descending line breaks the lower-high chain and exposes the 0.5624 London high
0.5637 Asia high lines up with the 0.5635-0.5640 cap flagged in the digest
Loss of the 0.5611 Asian low puts the 0.5608 London low and the double bottom back in play
PCE/GDP actuals still pending in the feed; core PCE above the 0.3% forecast could materially shift this read
After the 0.5637 Asian high, London printed a chain of lower highs, the latest at 0.5621. The 0.5608 session low held twice, with the dip under the Asian low reclaimed in a false break. Price sits at 0.5615 on EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral near 49, just as US Q3 GDP/PCE hits at the London-NY transition.
Support: 0.5608, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5621, 0.5637
What it said to watch
US Q3 GDP and core PCE released at 12:30 UTC; the reaction bar could break the range either way
An M15 close above the 0.5621 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Failure to hold the 0.5608 session low exposes the 0.5600 round number, the digest's pivot level
A reclaim of the 0.5637 Asian high would put the whole intraday range above water
12:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 36 · price 0.56104
Lower highs below the Asian range, retesting the session low.
London has printed lower highs at the 0.5624 London high and the 0.5621 lower high, below the 0.5611–0.5637 Asian range. Price has slipped back under the Asian low to retest the 0.5608 session low as USD firms ahead of US GDP/PCE, with NZD still heavy after the RBNZ hold. RSI(14) near 36 and an ATR of about 4 pips point to a compressed pre-data tape.
Support: 0.56079, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56106, 0.56207, 0.56239
What it said to watch
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC, within the next bar, could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 0.5608 session low exposes the 0.5600 psych level and OCBC pivot
M15 close back above the 0.5611 Asian low returns price to the Asian range
M15 close above the 0.5621 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and invalidates the London downtrend read
Lower highs from Asian high; higher low after London false break.
London pushed through the 0.5611 Asian range low to a 0.5608 session low, then reclaimed it. Rising lows since, with a higher low at 0.5614 and price at 0.5617 just under the 0.5621 swing high. The rebound still sits beneath lower highs from the 0.5637 Asian high, inside the post-RBNZ range with ATR near 4 pips ahead of US GDP/PCE.
Support: 0.56137, 0.56079, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56207, 0.56239, 0.56365
What it said to watch
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot print puts the 0.5608 session low and 0.5600 psych back in focus
M15 close above the 0.5624 london high breaks the lower highs sequence from the 0.5637 asian high
Failure to hold the 0.5614 higher low breaks the rising lows and returns price to the 0.5608 session low
11:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, bounce from London low · RSI 47 · price 0.56168
Lower highs since Asian high; false break of Asian low.
Lower highs have formed since the 0.5637 Asian high. London dipped through the 0.5611 Asian low to a 0.5608 London low, then reclaimed it, and the bounce stalled at a 0.5621 lower high under the 0.5624 London high. RSI(14) sits near 47 in late London, with US GDP/PCE close and NZD heavy after the surprise RBNZ hold.
Support: 0.56106, 0.56079, 0.5606
Resistance: 0.56207, 0.56239, 0.56365
What it said to watch
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the 3.8-pip ATR understates likely event range
An M15 close above the 0.5621 lower high and 0.5624 London high breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 0.5637 Asian high next
The bounce has retraced about 60% of the London leg; rejection near 0.5621 keeps the lower-high line intact
Failure to hold the 0.5611 Asian low reopens the 0.5608 London low and the 0.5606 prior low
11:18 UTC
Rangebound, lower highs since the Asian spike · RSI 51 · price 0.56188
Inside Asian range after a London false break of the Asian low.
The Fed-hold spike and the Asian high both capped at 0.5637–0.5638. Price has since printed lower highs, and London briefly broke the asian low at 0.5611 to a session low of 0.5608 before recovering. Price is back near 0.5619, above 61.8% of the London leg and just under EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral ahead of US Q3 GDP and PCE.
Support: 0.56106, 0.56079, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56239, 0.56365
What it said to watch
US Q3 GDP and PCE at 12:30 UTC (~74 min) could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the london high at 0.5624 breaks the lower-high sequence and brings the asian high at 0.5637 back into play
A break back below the session low at 0.5608 negates the false break and exposes the 0.5600 round number
11:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, bouncing off London low · RSI 48 · price 0.56158
Lower highs from the Asian high; London undercut the Asian range low, then reclaimed it.
Lower highs from the 0.5637 Asian high capped London at 0.5624. The London low at 0.5608 briefly undercut the 0.5611 Asian range floor as USD demand revived. Price has since bounced to 0.5616 and is pressing the descending trendline and the fib 38.2 near 0.5619, with RSI(14) neutral at 48 ahead of US GDP/PCE.
Support: 0.56079, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5619, 0.56239, 0.56365
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5619 (trendline / fib 38.2) breaks the lower-high sequence and exposes the London high at 0.5624
Failure to hold the London low at 0.5608 turns the Asian-range undercut into a lower low, with the 0.5600 round number next
A reclaim of the Asian high at 0.5637 would negate the intraday downtrend read
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC (~1.5h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.56365 Asian high; Asian low broken in London.
London extended the lower-high sequence from the 0.56365 Asian high, failing at the 0.56239 London high and breaking the 0.56106 Asian low to a 0.56079 London low. Price is now chopping at the Asian low with RSI(14) near 40, USD firm and NZD heavy after the RBNZ hold ahead of US GDP/PCE.
Support: 0.56106, 0.56079, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56206, 0.56239, 0.56365
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56206 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain; the 0.56239 London high sits just above.
Failure to hold the 0.56079 London low puts the 0.5600 round number in play.
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC (~1.75h) could materially shift this read.
A recovery back through the 0.56365 Asian high would negate the lower-high sequence.
Lower highs since Asian high, Asian range low marginally broken.
London extended the slide from the 0.5637 Asian high, slipping just under the Asian range low to a session low at 0.5608, with lower highs at the 0.5624 London high and 0.5617 since. USD demand is rebuilding ahead of the US Q3 GDP and PCE data. RSI(14) near 39 and ATR around 4 pips point to a slow grind rather than a flush.
Support: 0.56079, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56169, 0.56239, 0.56365
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5617 lower high breaks the London lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.5608 session low exposes the 0.5600 round number
Descending trendline from the Asian high, near 0.5619, caps rebounds while intact
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
10:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 38 · price 0.56104
Lower-high chain from 0.5637; London broke below the Asian range low.
Lower highs have stacked from the 0.5637 Asian high. Mid-London, price slipped through the 0.5611 Asian low and the post-FOMC wick to a 0.5608 session low, as USD firmed ahead of US GDP/PCE. RSI(14) is near 38, not stretched, and ATR is about 4 pips.
Support: 0.56079, 0.5600, 0.55975
Resistance: 0.5611, 0.56239, 0.56365
What it said to watch
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC (~2h) could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 0.5611 asian low makes the London break a false break
Close above the 0.5624 london high breaks the lower-highs chain
Failure to hold the 0.5608 session low exposes the 0.5600 round number and the 0.5598 prior low
Asian high at 0.5637 caps the window
10:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 33 · price 0.56094
Lower-high/lower-low chain from 0.5637 asian high; asian low under pressure.
Early Asia set the asian high at 0.5637, and every rebound since has capped lower along the lower highs line. The London high at 0.5624 held, and price is now slipping under the 0.5611 asian low to a fresh session low near 0.5609, with RSI(14) around 33. Renewed USD demand ahead of US GDP/PCE is the backdrop.
Support: 0.56091, 0.5600, 0.5584
Resistance: 0.56106, 0.56239, 0.56365
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5611 asian low would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5600 round number exposes the 0.5584 rbnz low
Close above the 0.5624 london high and the lower highs line negates the intraday downtrend
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC (~2.5h) could materially shift this read; ATR near 4 pips is likely to expand sharply
09:47 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs into a flat base · RSI 42 · price 0.5612
Lower highs from 0.5637 pressing on 0.5610 session low.
The post-Fed spike and the Asia high both stalled at the 0.5637 double top. Since then the pair has printed lower highs, and the London high at 0.5624 capped the latest bounce. The 0.5610 session low was tested in late Asia and again mid-London as USD firmed ahead of US GDP/PCE. RSI(14) is near 42 and ATR is about 4 pips.
Support: 0.5610, 0.5600, 0.5595
Resistance: 0.5624, 0.5637
What it said to watch
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.5610 session low opens the 0.5600 round number, then the 0.5595 prior low
Close above the 0.5624 london high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Recovery through 0.5637 negates the double top
09:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since the post-Fed spike · RSI 44 · price 0.56124
Lower highs from 0.5638 pressing onto flat 0.5610 lows; early London retesting the Asian low.
Since the post-Fed spike to 0.5638, highs have stepped lower: the 0.56365 Asian high and the 0.56239 London high both sit on a falling trendline. Price is back at the 0.5610 session low, tested at 06:00 UTC and again at 09:15 UTC, as firmer USD demand ahead of US GDP/PCE caps early-London rebounds. RSI(14) near 44 is mid-range, with ATR about 4.4 pips.
Support: 0.56105, 0.5600, 0.55952
Resistance: 0.56239, 0.56365
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5610 session low confirms a lower low and exposes the 0.5600 round number, then the 0.5595 prior low
M15 close above the falling trendline and the 0.5624 london high breaks the lower-high sequence, putting the 0.5636 asian high back in view
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.5637 against a 0.5611 session-low floor.
The early-Asia pop to the 0.5637 Asian high was rejected, and price has since printed lower highs. The London high at 0.5624 stalled at the 50% retrace of the Asia decline, leaving London inside the lower half of the Asian range. The 0.5611 session low is holding as USD demand firms ahead of US GDP/PCE, with RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 0.56106, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5624, 0.56365
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5611 session low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.5600 psych level
M15 close above the 0.5624 london high clears the lower-highs line and the 50% retrace, reopening the 0.5637 asian high
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
London compressing inside the Asian range below a falling trendline.
The post-Fed spike was rejected twice at the 0.5637 fed high, and Asia then printed lower highs down to the 0.5611 asian low. London is compressing between the 0.5614 london low and the 0.5624 london high, pressed under the falling trendline and the 38.2% retracement of the Asian leg, as USD stays firm ahead of US GDP and PCE.
Support: 0.56143, 0.56106, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56239, 0.56383
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.5624 london high breaks the falling trendline and the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.5611 asian low exposes the 0.5600 round number, the near-term pivot
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 GMT (~3.5h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs off 0.5637 double top; tight 0.5611–0.5624 band into early London.
Early London: the open pushed to 0.5624, roughly a 50% retrace of the Asian range, and was rejected back to 0.5615. Highs have stepped lower since the 0.5637 double top that capped the post-Fed spike and the Asia rebound. The swing low at 0.5614 and the Asian low at 0.5611 are the nearby floors, with USD firming ahead of US GDP/PCE.
Support: 0.56137, 0.56106, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56239, 0.56365
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5611 asian low extends the lower-low sequence toward 0.5600 psych
Close above the 0.5624 london high breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens the double top at 0.5637
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs inside the Asian range, higher low at 0.5614.
Supply capped the pair at 0.5638 on the Fed-day spike and again at the 0.5637 Asian high. Since then the Asian range of 0.5611–0.5637 has printed lower highs as USD firmed after the hawkish-split hold. Early London stalled at 0.5624, the london high, near the 50% retrace of the Asia drop; price sits just under EMA20 above a higher low at 0.5614, with RSI(14) neutral at 44.
Support: 0.56137, 0.56106
Resistance: 0.56239, 0.56266, 0.56365
What it said to watch
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 GMT (~4h) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.5624 london high and the 0.5627 fib 61.8 breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 0.5637 asian high
Failure to hold the 0.5614 higher low, then the 0.5611 asian low, confirms a lower-low and exposes 0.5600
Inside Asian range 0.5611–0.5637, higher low at 0.5614.
Asia rejected the 0.5637 asian high and faded to a 0.5611 asian low as USD demand returned after the Fed hold. The London open lifted price to a 0.5624 london high, the 50% retrace of the Asian drop, where it is stalling. The pair holds a higher low at 0.5614 ahead of US GDP/PCE.
Support: 0.5614, 0.5611
Resistance: 0.5624, 0.5637
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5624 london high clears the 50% retrace and opens 0.5637 asian high
Failure to hold the 0.5614 higher low exposes the 0.5611 asian low and the Asian range floor
US Q3 GDP / core PCE at 12:30 UTC (15:30 broker) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.5637 Asian high, bounce capped at 38.2% fib.
NZDUSD stalled at the 0.5637 Asian high as USD firmed after the hawkish-leaning Fed hold. Since then it has carved lower highs into a 0.5611 Asian low, and the rebound met rejection at 0.5620, the 38.2% fib of the Asian leg. Price sits below both EMAs heading into London open, with the 0.5600 round number and the 0.5595 prior low beneath the Asian range.
Support: 0.56106, 0.5600, 0.55952
Resistance: 0.56201, 0.56288, 0.56365
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5611 Asian low exposes the 0.5600 round number and the 0.5595 prior low
An M15 close above the 0.5629 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence; the 0.5637 Asian high sits above it
A sustained hold above the 0.5620 38.2% fib would weaken the rejection read
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
07:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 45 · price 0.56169
Lower highs/lower lows from 0.5637; bounce off 0.5611 capped at 0.5620.
After a rejection at the Asia high near 0.5637, which echoed the post-Fed spike, price built a lower-highs sequence. It reached a session low at 0.5611 before the London open bounce stalled at the 0.5620 bounce high, near the 38.2% of the Asia leg fib. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 45, while firm USD demand ahead of US data keeps NZD heavy.
Support: 0.56106, 0.5600, 0.55952
Resistance: 0.56201, 0.56238, 0.56365
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5624 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Loss of the 0.5611 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5600 round number and 0.5595 prior low
US core PCE / Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~5h) could materially shift this read
Asia high at 0.5637 is the upper cap; reclaiming it would neutralise the Asia selling sequence
07:04 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 43 · price 0.56167
LH/LL sequence from 0.5637 Asian high; bounce off 0.5611 capped near 0.5620.
The early-Asia spike to the 0.5637 Asian high was rejected, inside the 0.5635-0.5640 cap flagged after the RBNZ hold. Price then printed lower highs into a 0.5611 Asian low late in the session. The bounce stalled at 0.5620, the bounce high near the 38.2% fib, and price sits below both EMAs ahead of London open with RSI(14) at 43.
Support: 0.5611, 0.5609, 0.5595
Resistance: 0.5620, 0.5624, 0.5637
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5624 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and the descending trendline
Failure to hold the 0.5611 Asian low exposes the 0.5609 fed low, then the 0.5595 prior low
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC, during NY session, could materially shift this read
Double top at 0.5637, Asian lower highs, neckline retest from below.
The post-Fed spike to 0.5638 in NY and the 0.5637 Asian high formed a double top at the 0.5635–0.5640 cap left after the RBNZ hold. Asia then printed lower highs down to a 0.5611 session low. Into London open, price is retesting the 0.5618 neckline from below, near the 38.2% of the Asian decline fib, with RSI(14) flat at 49.
Support: 0.5611, 0.5595
Resistance: 0.5618, 0.5624, 0.5637
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5624 lower high breaks the Asian lower-high sequence
A break of the 0.5611 session low exposes yesterday's 0.5595 prior low
Double top at 0.5637 is the cap to watch for rejection or break
US core PCE, GDP and claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian high, price at the Asian low.
The Asian high at 0.5637 was rejected just under the post-Fed spike top, and price has since ground lower in a lower-high chain capped by a falling trendline. The Asian low at 0.5611 printed into the London open, with NZD still heavy after the RBNZ hold. RSI(14) near 41 and ATR around 3.4 pips point to a slow drift rather than an extreme.
Support: 0.56106, 0.5609, 0.55952
Resistance: 0.5623, 0.56365
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.5611 Asian low and the 0.5609 swing low exposes the 0.5595 24h low and the 0.5600 handle
A reclaim of the falling trendline and the 0.5623 lower high, near the 50% fib, would break the lower-high chain
Asian high at 0.5637 is the intraday cap. Acceptance above it negates the rejection read
London open is the first test of the Asian range
US GDP and PCE at 12:30 UTC, in about 6h, could materially shift this read
The post-RBNZ Asian bounce to the 0.5637 asian high was rejected, and the session has printed a lower high at 0.5629 (prior high) and another at 0.5624 since. Late in the Asia session, ahead of London open, price is pressing the session low at 0.5616 with RSI(14) near 38. The next reference below is the Fed low at 0.5609, then yesterday's day low at 0.5595.
Support: 0.56157, 0.5609, 0.55952
Resistance: 0.56238, 0.5629, 0.56365
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.5624 lower high breaks the descending lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.5616 session low exposes the 0.5609 fed low
Loss of 0.5609 brings the 0.5595 day low into range
Reclaiming the 0.5629 prior high puts the 0.5637 asian high back in play
US GDP/PCE at 12:30 UTC (~6.5h) could materially shift this read
Late Asia session: the early-Asia push to 0.5636 was rejected just under the Fed high at 0.5638, and price has since carved a sequence of lower highs into the Asian low at 0.5617, now tested twice. NZD stays heavy after the surprise RBNZ hold. Range is compressed into London, with ATR(14) near 3.4 pips and RSI(14) ~38 below both EMAs.
Support: 0.56175, 0.56092, 0.55952
Resistance: 0.56238, 0.56301, 0.56383
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5617 Asian low opens the Fed low at 0.5609, then the prior low at 0.5595
Close above 0.5624 breaks the lower highs sequence; the swing high at 0.5630 is the next cap
Fed high at 0.5638 marks the top of the intraday cap seen twice in 24h
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia open · RSI 38 · price 0.5618
Double top at 0.5637, compressing onto 0.5618 neckline.
The Asian bounce stalled at 0.5637, matching the Fed-spike high for a double top, with price still heavy after the RBNZ hold. Since then, lower highs have pressed price into the 0.5618 asian low, which is also the neckline. Price sits between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the Fed-leg rally, with RSI(14) near 38 and ATR down to about 3.6 pips into the London open.
Support: 0.5618, 0.5609, 0.5595
Resistance: 0.5624, 0.5629, 0.5637
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5618 asian low confirms the double top and exposes the 0.5609 spike low, then the 0.5595 prior low
A close above the 0.5624 lower high breaks the descending trendline and reopens the 0.5629 NY high
Recovery through the 0.5637 double top would negate the rejection read
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:17 UTC
Sideways, drifting lower since the Asian spike · RSI 44 · price 0.56214
Lower highs compressing onto the Asian low.
In late Asia, the 01:15 UTC spike to the 0.5637 Asian high was sold inside the 0.5635-0.5640 cap flagged after the RBNZ hold. Since then price has posted lower highs at the 0.5629 swing high and the 0.5624 lower high, and is now pinned in a 6-pip band just above the 0.5618 Asian low, below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 0.56175, 0.56092
Resistance: 0.56238, 0.5629, 0.56365
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5618 Asian low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 0.5609 Fed low (post-Fed presser low)
M15 close above the 0.5624 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 0.5629 swing high back in play
Asian high at 0.5637 is the upside cap to watch for another rejection or a break
London open could break the compression; US GDP/PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:06 UTC
Range, drifting lower in late Asia · RSI 42 · price 0.56202
Lower highs below 0.5637 spike highs, Asian low at 0.5618 holding.
The Fed-hold spike to 0.5638 and the early-Asia push to 0.5637 were both sold, leaving spike highs that match the digest's 0.5635-0.5640 cap with kiwi heavy after the RBNZ hold. Since then, lower highs have compressed price into 0.5618-0.5624, between the 38.2% and 50% retracements of yesterday's 0.5595-0.5638 rally, and below both EMAs.
Support: 0.5618, 0.5609, 0.5595
Resistance: 0.5624, 0.5630, 0.5637
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5618 asian low exposes the 0.5609 fed low, then the 0.5595 24h low
Close above the 0.5624 lower high breaks the descending trendline and reopens the 0.5630 asia pivot
London open is the first test of the late-Asia 0.5618-0.5624 box
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC (~7.5h) could materially shift this read
0.5618–0.5638 range, lower highs since Asian spike.
The Fed-hour spike to 0.5638 and the Asian push to the 0.5637 Asian high were both rejected, keeping NZD capped after the RBNZ hold. Late in the Asia session, price is grinding under a lower-high trendline and the ema cluster near 0.5623, with RSI(14) near 47. It is sitting on the 38.2% fib of the london low-to-fed high rally, just above the 0.5618 session low.
Support: 0.5618, 0.5609, 0.5595
Resistance: 0.5623, 0.5629, 0.5637
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5618 session low breaks the range floor and exposes the 0.5609 fed low, then the 0.5595 london low
A close back above the lower-high trendline and the 0.5629 lower high reopens the 0.5637 asian high
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 GMT (~8h) could materially shift this read; London open in ~3h may set the session range first
Late Asia session: the 01:15 UTC spike to the 0.5637 asian high was rejected inside one bar. Since then the pair has printed a chain of lower highs down to 0.5624 and is now pressing the 0.5618 asian low, with RSI(14) near 43 and both EMAs overhead as the USD firms in Asia on oil and yields. Price still sits inside the post-Fed presser range between the 0.5609 fed low and the 0.5638 fed high.
Support: 0.56175, 0.56092, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56238, 0.56365, 0.56383
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5618 asian low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 0.5609 fed low
Loss of 0.5609 brings the 0.5600 psych pivot from the RBNZ reaction back into play
M15 close above the 0.5624 lower high breaks the Asia trendline and reopens the 0.5637 asian high / 0.5638 fed high
US core PCE, GDP and claims at 12:30 UTC (~8h) could materially shift this read
04:17 UTC
Sideways, post-Fed range with lower highs in Asia · RSI 48 · price 0.56228
0.5618–0.5637 range since the Fed spike; Asia rejected at the double top and printed lower highs.
The pair has ranged between 0.5618 and 0.5637 since the Fed hold spike. The 01:15 UTC Asia push was rejected at the 0.5637 double top, and highs have stepped lower toward the 0.5618 Asia low as the dollar firmed on oil and yields. Price is in late Asia trade near the 28% retrace of that drop, below the 50% fib at 0.5627, with RSI(14) neutral at about 48 and ATR at about 5 pips.
Support: 0.56175, 0.56092, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5627, 0.56365
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.5618 Asia low breaks the post-Fed range floor and exposes the fed low at 0.5609.
A move back through the 50% fib at 0.5627 reopens a test of the 0.5637 double top.
US core PCE, GDP and claims at 12:30 UTC (about 8h away) could materially shift this read. A slide toward the 0.5600 psych pivot from the digest is the line in focus.
Double top 0.5637/0.5638, lower-high/lower-low chain in Asia.
The post-Fed spike to 0.5638 was retested at 0.5637 early in the Asia session and rejected, forming a double top. Since then each high has come in lower as USD firms in Asia. Price sits at 0.5621, just under the ema20 and on the 38.2% fib of the 0.5595–0.5638 rally, with the asian low at 0.5618 holding so far.
Support: 0.5618, 0.5609
Resistance: 0.5623, 0.5628, 0.5637
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5618 asian low extends the lower-low chain toward the 50% fib near 0.5617 and the 0.5609 fed low
M15 close back above the ema20 at 0.5623 and the 0.5628 lower high breaks the descending trendline read
Double top at 0.5637 caps the session; a close above it voids the pattern
US core PCE, GDP and claims at 12:30 UTC (~8.5h) could materially shift this read
03:47 UTC
Post-Fed rally stalling, lower highs in Asia · RSI 48 · price 0.56208
Lower highs from 0.5637, pressing the Asian session low.
Late Asia session, ahead of London. The 01:15 UTC spike to 0.5637, following the mixed ANZ survey, failed beneath the 0.5638 Fed-presser high, forming a double top. Price has since printed lower highs and sits on the 38.2% retrace (0.5622) of yesterday's 0.5595–0.5638 rise, just above the 0.5618 session low.
Support: 0.56175, 0.56092, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5630, 0.56383
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5618 session low confirms the double top and exposes the 50% fib at 0.5617, then the 0.5609 fed low
Loss of 0.5609 brings the 0.5600 round number into view
M15 close back above the 0.5630 range top breaks the lower-high sequence
US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (~9h) could materially shift this read
03:33 UTC
Intraday range, rolling over from highs · RSI 44 · price 0.5618
Double top at 0.5637-38 with price on the 0.5617 Asian low neckline.
Mid-Asia session, the 01:15 UTC spike to 0.5637 was rejected just under the post-Fed high at 0.5638, forming a double top as USD recovered and ANZ data gave mixed signals. Price has slid back below EMA20/50 to the 0.5617 Asian low, which is the double-top neckline and the 50% retracement of the 0.5595–0.5638 rally.
Support: 0.56175, 0.56092, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5630, 0.56383
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5617 Asian low confirms the double top and exposes the 0.5609 Fed low near the 61.8% retracement
Loss of the 0.5600 round number reopens the London session low at 0.5595
Recovery above the 0.5630 prior high negates the double-top read
US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:17 UTC
Range after Fed spike, drifting lower · RSI 42 · price 0.56199
Lower highs inside Asian range, pressing range low.
The Fed-hold spike to 0.5638 and the Asia retest at 0.5636 were both rejected, leaving a double top. Since then a chain of lower highs has walked price back to the asian low near 0.5618, just under the 38.2% retrace of the London low-Fed high move. RSI(14) sits at 42 and price is below both EMAs as NZD stays heavy after the RBNZ hold.
Support: 0.56182, 0.56092, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5630, 0.56375
What it said to watch
M15 close below the asian low at 0.5618 breaks the range and puts the 50% fib (~0.5617) and the fed bar low at 0.5609 in play, then psych 0.5600
Recovery above the 0.5630 pivot negates the lower-highs read and reopens the double top at 0.5636-0.5638
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~9h) could materially shift this read
Asian range 0.5618–0.5637, lower high under spike highs.
The post-Fed spike to 0.5638 and the Asian push to 0.5637 were both rejected, leaving spike highs capping a 0.5619–0.5637 Asian range as NZD stays heavy after the RBNZ's surprise hold. Late in the Asia session, price is pressing the rising trendline off the 0.5595 London low at the 38.2% retrace of the London–Fed leg near 0.5622. RSI(14) is at 44 and price is just under both EMAs.
Support: 0.5619, 0.5609
Resistance: 0.5630, 0.5637
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5619 asian low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 0.5609 fed low
Recovery through the 0.5630 prior high reopens a test of the 0.5637 spike highs
US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (~9.5h) could materially shift this read
02:47 UTC
Recovery rally stalling, drifting lower in Asia · RSI 45 · price 0.56219
Range 0.5618–0.5638, two upper-wick rejections at the top.
The post-RBNZ rebound off the 0.5595 London low ran into two failed spikes at the 0.5637–38 spike highs, first on the Fed press conference and again in the Asia session. Price is back at the 38.2% retracement near 0.5622, just above the 0.5618 Asian low, with RSI(14) neutral at 45.
Support: 0.56182, 0.56092, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56301, 0.56383
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5618 Asian low turns the spike highs into a double top and exposes the 0.5609 fed low, then 0.5600 psych
Reclaim of the 0.5630 Asian high puts the 0.5637–38 spike highs back in play
US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read
0.5618–0.5638 range; second rejection at the Fed spike high.
The London low at 0.5595 gave way to a rally into the Fed press conference. The pair spiked to a 0.5638 fed spike high as the dollar dipped, and the Asia session retest at 0.5637 was rejected within one bar. Price is mid-Asia at 0.5622, sitting on the 38.2% fib of that leg and holding the 0.5618 Asia low, with RSI(14) neutral at 45 and ATR(14) near 6 pips.
Support: 0.5618, 0.5613, 0.5609
Resistance: 0.5630, 0.5638
What it said to watch
Break of the 0.5618 Asia low exposes the 0.5613 post-fed low and the 0.5609 spike low near the 50% fib
M15 close back above the 0.5630 asia pivot puts the 0.5638 fed spike high back in play; a close above it voids the rejection read
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read
ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence at 21:00 UTC is a secondary NZD risk
02:17 UTC
Sideways, post-Fed range · RSI 51 · price 0.56253
0.5618–0.5638 range, lower high at 0.5636 under the Fed spike high.
The post-Fed dollar dip spiked NZD to a 0.5638 fed high off a 0.5609 fed low, and the pair has ranged since. In the Asia session, the dip after ANZ confidence held the 0.5618 asia low, and a push to a 0.5636 asia high was rejected. Price now sits flat on EMA20 under the 0.5630 swing high, with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 0.56182, 0.56092, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5630, 0.56365, 0.56383
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5638 fed high breaks the post-Fed range top
Failure to hold the 0.5618 asia low exposes the 0.5609 fed low and 0.5600 psych pivot
Repeated caps at the 0.5630 swing high keep the range-mid read intact
US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence at 21:00 UTC is a secondary NZD risk
Range 0.5618–0.5638 since the Fed/Warsh spike; Asian session tagged both ends.
Asian session pushed to an asia high at 0.5637 and drew an immediate rejection just below the 0.5638 fed high from the Warsh presser spike, leaving price mid-range near 0.5627. The asia low at 0.5618, set on the post-ANZ dip, sits on rising lows from yesterday's London low at 0.5595. RSI(14) is neutral at 53 and ATR is around 5 pips.
Support: 0.56182, 0.56092
Resistance: 0.56365, 0.56383
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5638 fed high breaks the post-Fed range
Loss of 0.5618 asia low and the rising lows line exposes the 0.5609 presser low and the 0.5600 pivot
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC can materially shift this read
01:47 UTC
Post-Fed recovery, stalling in a range · RSI 54 · price 0.56265
0.5618–0.5638 range since Fed, top rejected twice.
After the RBNZ-driven slide to 0.5595, the pair recovered and spiked to the 0.5638 fed high on the dovish read of Warsh's presser. Early Asia session, a 0.5636 spike was rejected straight back to 0.5626, a second failure under that top. Price sits mid-range above the 0.5618 asia low, with rising lows from yesterday's London trough still intact.
Support: 0.56182, 0.56092
Resistance: 0.5630, 0.56383
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5638 fed high breaks the post-Fed range top
Failure at the 0.5630 asia pivot keeps price boxed under the twice-rejected top
Loss of the 0.5618 asia low exposes the 0.5609 fed low and the rising lows line
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~11h) could materially shift this read
01:32 UTC
Uptrend off the post-RBNZ low, pressing the Fed high · RSI 64 · price 0.56345
Higher lows since the London low, Asia retesting the post-Fed spike high.
NZD is recovering from the London low at 0.5595, set after the RBNZ's surprise hold. Asia bought the early dip to the 0.5618 asia low and the 01:00 UTC bar ran through the 0.5630 break level to retest the 0.5638 fed high. The rising lows trendline from London remains intact and RSI(14) near 64 is not stretched.
Support: 0.5630, 0.56182
Resistance: 0.56383, 0.5650
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.5638 fed high clears the post-Fed range and opens the 0.5650 round number
A slip back below the 0.5630 break level returns price to the post-Fed range
A loss of the 0.5618 asia low and the rising lows line breaks the higher-low sequence
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
0.5618–0.5638 range above the 38.2% fib; higher low from the 0.5595 London low intact.
The softer USD after the Fed hold carried the pair from the 0.5595 London low to a 0.5638 FOMC high. It has ranged below that since. Early Asia dipped to an asia low at 0.5618 after the ANZ Activity Outlook slipped, holding just above the 38.2% fib, and price is back mid-range at 0.5625 with RSI(14) near 55.
Support: 0.56182, 0.56092, 0.55952
Resistance: 0.56301, 0.56383
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5630 asian high puts the 0.5638 fomc high back in play
Failure to hold the 0.5618 asia low exposes the 0.5609 fomc low and the 50–61.8% fib zone
A break below the 0.5595 london low would erase the post-Fed leg
US core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC (~11h) could materially shift this read
The Fed-driven spike to the 0.5638 fed high has faded into a 0.5618–0.5630 range. Early Asia was rejected at the 0.5630 asia high around the ANZ survey release, and the post-fed low at 0.5618 has now held twice, close to the 38.2% fib of the London-low-to-Fed-high leg. RSI(14) is near 51, price is pinned just under the 20/50 EMAs and ATR is about 4 pips, so there is no directional impulse.
Support: 0.56182, 0.56092, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56301, 0.56383
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.5618 post-fed low exposes the 0.5609 fed low, then the 0.5600 round number.
A close above the 0.5630 asia high reopens the 0.5638 fed high.
US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC Thursday could materially shift this read.
00:47 UTC
Sideways after post-RBNZ recovery · RSI 51 · price 0.56233
Post-Fed range 0.5618–0.5638, Asia inside.
Early Asia session is holding inside the range set after the Fed high at 0.5638. The rebound from the RBNZ low has stalled there. Price was rejected at the 0.5630 Asian high around the ANZ confidence release, and the dip to the 0.5618 Asian low held near the 50% of the London-to-Fed leg fib. RSI(14) is flat near 51 and price sits on EMA20.
Support: 0.56182, 0.56092, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56301, 0.56383
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5618 Asian low exposes the 0.5609 Fed low and the 0.5600 round number
Close above the 0.5630 Asian high reopens a test of the 0.5638 Fed high
US core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC (~12h) could materially shift this read
Post-Fed range 0.5618–0.5638 with its floor under test at Asia open.
After the RBNZ-hold flush to 0.5583, the pair climbed from the 0.5595 London low into a Fed-presser spike to 0.5638 (post-Fed hi) as USD softened, then ranged into the close. Rejection at the 0.5630 range top early in Asia session has pushed price onto the 0.5618 post-fed low and the rising trendline, with RSI(14) at 40.
Support: 0.5618, 0.5609, 0.5595
Resistance: 0.5630, 0.5638
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.5618 post-fed low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 0.5609 fed low, then the 0.5595 london low
Recovery back above the 0.5630 range top restores the post-Fed range read; 0.5638 post-fed hi caps above
Hold of the London-Fed leg 50% retracement near 0.5617 keeps the rising trendline structure intact
US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC Thu could materially shift this read
00:17 UTC
Recovery from RBNZ low, stalling in Asia · RSI 41 · price 0.56209
Higher lows since 0.5583; Asian range 0.5620–0.5630 under test at its floor.
The RBNZ hold sent the pair to 0.5583, and it has since rebuilt with higher lows. The post-Fed USD dip lifted it to the 0.5638 fed high. The Asia session has held a tight 0.5620–0.5630 range, and the opening bar has dropped back onto the asian low with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 0.5620, 0.56171, 0.56092
Resistance: 0.5630, 0.56383
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5620 asian low breaks the Asian range and exposes the 0.5617 fib 38.2 near rising support
Loss of the 0.5609 fed low unwinds the post-Fed leg and the higher-low chain
Close back above the 0.5630 asian high reopens the 0.5638 fed high
US core PCE and GDP Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:04 UTC
Recovering off post-RBNZ low, now flat · RSI 50 · price 0.56255
Higher lows since 0.5583; tight 0.5620–0.5630 band after Fed spike.
RBNZ's surprise hold sank the pair to 0.5583 in yesterday's Asia session, and it has retraced since on a run of rising lows. The Fed's sell-the-fact USD dip spiked it to the fed high at 0.5638. Price has compressed between the 0.5620 range floor and the 0.5630 range top into the new Asia session, sitting on the 23.6% of the recovery fib with RSI(14) neutral near 50.
Support: 0.5620, 0.5609, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5630, 0.5638
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5630 range top opens a retest of the 0.5638 fed high
Failure at the 0.5620 range floor exposes the 0.5609 fed low and the rising lows line, then 0.5600 psych
US core PCE and GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~12h) could materially shift this read