21:07 UTC
Downtrend, below a falling EMA(50) · RSI 40 · price 0.56252
Lower highs and lower lows from the August peak; month-long 0.5565–0.5710 range near the lows.
NZDUSD has been in a downtrend since the 21 Aug high at 0.5988. A chain of lower highs and lower lows carried price to the 0.5565 oct low by mid-October, while EMA(50) rolled over and now sits near 0.5700. The October rebound stalled at the 0.5710 oct high, right at EMA(50) and short of the 38.2% retracement of the Aug–Oct fib near 0.5727. The RBNZ's surprise 4-3 hold at 2.75% then pushed price back to the 0.5583 rbnz low and below EMA(20) at 0.5659. Price now sits in the lower half of the 0.5565–0.5710 range that has held for about four weeks, with RSI(14) near 40 and well short of oversold.
Support: 0.5583, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5659, 0.5710, 0.5800
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 0.5565 oct low extends the lower-low sequence beyond the month-long range
- Failure to hold the 0.5583 rbnz low puts the range floor straight back in play
- Recovery above EMA(20) at 0.5659 and then the 0.5710 oct high would break the lower-high pattern and the downtrend line
- Only a move through the 0.5800 sep pivot, where the September breakdown started, would challenge the broader downtrend
- NZ Q3 employment and unemployment on Tue Nov 3, 21:45 UTC could decide whether the range floor holds
- US Q3 ECI on Fri at 12:30 UTC could shift the USD side of this read