21:07 UTC
Downtrend from August high, October rebound stalling · RSI 55 · price 0.56805
Lower highs and lower lows from 0.5988; October base 0.5565–0.5630, rebound capped at 0.5710.
The pair has carved lower highs and lower lows since the late-August high at 0.5988, bottoming at the 0.5565 oct low before a mid-October rebound. That rebound has stalled for two weeks under the 0.5710 rebound cap, where EMA(50) also sits, near the 38.2% retracement of the Aug–Oct decline. EMA(20) has flattened at 0.5666 just beneath price. The RBNZ's surprise 4-3 hold at 2.75%, against a priced hike, adds fresh NZD pressure to that ceiling.
Support: 0.5666, 0.5626, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5710, 0.5802, 0.5988
What it said to watch
- A daily close above the 0.5710 rebound cap and EMA(50) opens the path to the 0.5802 prior low (early-September swing low), with the 0.5988 aug high the upper pivot
- Losing ema20 at 0.5666 and the rebound trendline puts the 0.5626 june low back in play
- A daily close below the 0.5565 oct low confirms a fresh lower-low and extends the downtrend
- US core PCE and Q3 GDP (Thu 12:30 UTC), following the FOMC hold, could materially shift this read
- NZ Q3 employment and labour cost data (Nov 3) shape December RBNZ hike odds after the narrow 4-3 vote