21:07 UTC
Downtrend since August, corrective bounce stalling at EMA50 · RSI 54 · price 0.56882
LH/LL chain from the Aug 21 high; Oct rebound capped at 0.5700-0.5710.
The two-month decline from the 0.5988 August high bottomed at the 0.5565 oct low on Oct 14, after a two-week oct base near 0.5600. The rebound that followed stalled at the 0.5710 1m high, a zone that also holds the falling EMA(50) near 0.5707, the lower-high line from August and, just above, the 38.2% fib at 0.5727. Price has closed under 0.5700 for five straight sessions since the Q3 CPI miss on Oct 21, with the ema20 near 0.5668 now acting as the nearest floor.
Support: 0.5668, 0.5600, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5710, 0.5727, 0.5777
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 0.5710 1m high and EMA(50) would break the lower-high line and open the 50% fib at 0.5777
- Daily close back below the ema20 at 0.5668 exposes the oct base near 0.5600 and then the 0.5565 oct low
- RBNZ decision 01:00 GMT Wed (~23bp hike priced): a cautious OCR track or a surprise hold could materially shift this read
- FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC and Thursday PCE add USD event risk against the 0.5700-0.5710 cap