NZD/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Tuesday, 27 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the NZD/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:47 UTC
Downtrend, compressing into late NY · RSI 44 · price 0.56811
Lower highs from 0.57075; tight base above 0.5677.
Rejection near the 0.5700 pivot after the 0.57075 NY-hours high gave way to a steady lower-high sell-off through the Asian low (0.5690) and London low (0.5684), with the USD bid into FOMC. Price now sits in a 2–3 pip ATR range between the 0.56767 session low and the 0.56845 bounce high, about an hour before the RBNZ decision.
Support: 0.56767
Resistance: 0.56845, 0.56873, 0.5700
What it said to watch
RBNZ decision and MPS at 01:00 GMT is likely to break this compressed range, with guidance versus the priced hike path the swing factor
A close above the 0.56873 swing high breaks the lower-high chain and reopens the 0.5690–0.5700 pivot zone
Failure to hold the 0.56767 session low extends the lower-low sequence
The 0.56845 bounce high caps the post-NY consolidation for now
Lower highs from 0.5708 day high, tight base above 0.5677 day low.
London's break of the Asian high faded at 0.5708 and failed. NY hours then carved a lower-high sequence down to a 0.5677 day low with the USD firm. Early Asia is pinned between the 0.5680 round number and the 0.5685 bounce high, with RSI(14) near 45 and ATR(14) compressed to ~2.6 pips ahead of RBNZ.
Support: 0.5680, 0.56767
Resistance: 0.56845, 0.56873, 0.5700
What it said to watch
RBNZ decision and MPS at 01:00 GMT (~1.5h) could materially shift this read; compressed ATR points to an expansion bar
M15 close above the 0.5687 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 50% fib of the 0.5708–0.5677 decline near 0.5692
Failure to hold the 0.5677 day low extends the lower-low chain
0.5700 pivot has capped for four sessions — area to watch for rejection on any post-RBNZ spike
Lower highs from 0.57075, Asian range low broken in NY.
Another rejection above the 0.5700 psych level, with the day high at 0.57075 in London and a lower high at 0.57045 in early NY, gave way to a steady NY slide through the Asian range low as USD stayed firm into the Fed. The swing low printed at 0.56767 around rollover. The bounce stalled at 0.56845, the London low, and the lower highs remain intact ahead of RBNZ.
Support: 0.5680, 0.56767
Resistance: 0.56845, 0.5700, 0.57075
What it said to watch
RBNZ decision and MPS at 01:00 UTC (under 2h) could materially shift this read; the guidance tone matters more than the priced 25bp hike
M15 close back above 0.56845 london low breaks the lower highs and opens the 38.2% fib at 0.56885 and the 0.5700 psych level
Failure to hold the 0.5680 round number exposes the 0.56767 swing low; a break there extends the lower-low chain
A move above the 0.57075 day high on a hawkish RBNZ would end the four-session cap at 0.5700
23:03 UTC
Downtrend since NY high, flattening into Asia · RSI 41 · price 0.56822
Lower highs from 0.57075; sweep below ny low reclaimed.
NZD failed above the 0.5700 pivot again after a NY session high at 0.57075, with the USD bid ahead of the Fed. A run of lower highs drove a slide that swept the ny low at 0.56817 to a day low of 0.56767 after NY close. Price snapped back but is pinned at the ny low under EMA20, capped by the 0.56845 bounce high, with ATR near 3 pips ahead of the RBNZ decision.
Support: 0.56817, 0.56767
Resistance: 0.56845, 0.56873, 0.5700
What it said to watch
RBNZ decision at 01:00 GMT (~2h) will likely overwhelm this thin pre-event range; guidance against a fully priced 25bp hike is the swing factor
Close above the 0.56845 bounce high, then the 0.56873 lower high, breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.5700 pivot back in play
Failure to hold the 0.56767 day low resumes the lower-low chain
38.2–50% of the ny high retrace sits at 0.5689–0.5692, the first area where a post-RBNZ bounce would meet the prior breakdown
Fed decision later Wednesday could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the 0.5708 London high; false break below the Asian low.
NZD failed above the 0.5700 pivot again. The 0.5708 day high faded through NY as USD firmed into the Fed, printing lower highs down to a 0.5677 session low that briefly undercut the 0.5680 asian low. Price has since reclaimed 0.5680 and sits flat on EMA20 in thin pre-RBNZ trade. RSI(14) is neutral near 45 and ATR is compressed under 3 pips.
Support: 0.5680, 0.56767
Resistance: 0.56873, 0.5700, 0.57075
What it said to watch
RBNZ decision and MPS at 01:00 GMT (~2h) likely to override this intraday structure; guidance vs the priced hike path is the swing factor
Failure to hold the 0.5680 asian low after the false break re-exposes the 0.5677 session low
A close above the 0.5687 late high breaks the lower-highs sequence and the 38.2% of the NY selloff fib; the 0.5700 pivot sits above
The 0.5708 day high marks the top of the 24h range
22:33 UTC
Downtrend from day high, stalling into RBNZ · RSI 42 · price 0.56832
Lower highs and lower lows since NY; 0.5680 dip swept and reclaimed.
After rejection under the 0.5707 day high and 0.5700 psych in London, NY hours delivered lower highs. The pair slid to a 0.5677 day low as the pre-Fed USD bid held. The break below the 0.5680 round number was swept and reclaimed within one bar, and price now sits at EMA20 just under the 0.5687 lower high, which aligns with the 38.2% of the NY decline fib, on thin ~2.6-pip ATR ahead of RBNZ.
Support: 0.5680, 0.56767
Resistance: 0.56873, 0.5700, 0.57075
What it said to watch
RBNZ decision and MPS at 01:00 GMT (~2.5h) could materially shift this read; a 25bp hike is fully priced, so guidance drives the reaction
M15 close above the 0.5687 lower high breaks the NY lower-high sequence and puts 0.5700 psych back in play
Failure to hold the 0.5680 round number, then the 0.5677 day low, extends the lower-low chain
Fed decision Wednesday 18:00 UTC caps the window for any post-RBNZ follow-through
Another failed push through 0.5700 left a day high at 0.57075 at the London-NY transition and a lower high at 0.57045 in NY. Price then slid through the London low to a 0.56767 swing low into the NY close as USD stayed firm before the Fed. Early Asia has bounced to 0.5683, just under EMA20 and the 0.56873 lower high, with ATR(14) compressed near 2.8 pips ahead of RBNZ.
Support: 0.5680, 0.56767
Resistance: 0.56873, 0.5700, 0.57075
What it said to watch
RBNZ decision and MPS at 01:00 GMT (~2.7h) can override this structure; the hike is priced, so guidance sets the reaction
A close back above the 0.56873 lower high and fib 38.2% near 0.5688 neutralises the lower-high sequence
Failure at 0.5680 psych and a break of the 0.56767 swing low extends the lower-low chain
The 0.5700 cap and 0.57075 day high mark where the last two rallies were rejected
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
22:03 UTC
Downtrend, intraday lower highs since NY open · RSI 37 · price 0.56793
Lower highs under a descending trendline, overnight low broken.
The 0.5708 day high was rejected at NY open, another failure at the 0.5700 psych cap. Price has since stepped lower under a descending trendline, and the 0.5680 overnight low (now the broken low) gave way into thin post-NY trade, printing a 0.5677 day low. Firm USD into the Fed and pre-RBNZ positioning frame the slide, with RSI(14) near 37 and not stretched.
Support: 0.56767
Resistance: 0.5680, 0.56873, 0.57075
What it said to watch
RBNZ decision at 01:00 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read; guidance and the OCR track are the swing factors
Failure to hold the 0.5677 day low extends the lower-low chain
A close back above the 0.5680 broken low and the descending trendline would neutralise the breakdown
A close above the 0.5687 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence; the 50% fib of the day high–low drop sits near 0.5692
0.5700 psych cap and the 0.5708 day high remain the ceiling for any rebound
21:47 UTC
Downtrend from London high, now compressing near lows · RSI 38 · price 0.56808
Lower highs and lower lows since the failed break of the Asian high.
London briefly cleared the Asian high to a 0.57075 day high, failed back under the 0.5700 cap, and the move unwound. NY extended the sequence of lower highs to a 0.5678 session low as USD firmed into the Fed. Late-NY and early-Asia price is compressing just above that low, with ATR near 2 pips ahead of the RBNZ decision.
Support: 0.5678, 0.56747
Resistance: 0.56873, 0.5700, 0.57075
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5678 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.56747 24h low
Recovery above the 0.56873 swing high breaks the descending trendline and opens the 38.2–50% retrace zone at 0.5689–0.5693
RBNZ decision at 01:00 GMT (~3h): the OCR track decides whether the 0.5700 cap and 0.57075 day high come back into play
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC limits follow-through either way
Lower highs since NY session, new session low at 0.5678.
NZDUSD put in a day high at 0.57075 during London and was rejected above the 0.5700 round number again in NY. A chain of lower highs since then broke the London low near 0.5685 and printed a session low at 0.5678, as USD firmness into the Fed weighed on the Kiwi. Price is flat near 0.5681 as Asia opens ahead of the RBNZ, with ATR(14) compressed near 2 pips.
Support: 0.5678, 0.5671
Resistance: 0.5685, 0.5700, 0.57075
What it said to watch
RBNZ decision at 01:00 GMT (~3.5h) could materially shift this read; a surprise hold or cautious tone hits the 0.5680 area
Failure to hold the 0.5678 session low exposes the 0.5671 prior low from the start of the window
Recovery above the 0.5685 London low and the descending lower highs line weakens the downtrend read
Move back through 0.5700 and the 0.57075 day high would break the repeated rejection pattern
FOMC Wednesday 18:00 UTC adds USD-side risk later in the day
Lower highs since 0.5708 day high, basing near session low.
The pair was rejected at the 0.57075 day high after London-NY, again failing to hold the 0.5700 psych level. NY hours then produced a steady chain of lower highs as USD stayed bid into the FOMC. Price is now basing just above the 0.5678 session low in thin post-NY trade, with ATR compressed near 2.4 pips ahead of the RBNZ decision.
Support: 0.5678, 0.5671
Resistance: 0.5687, 0.5700, 0.57075
What it said to watch
RBNZ decision at 01:00 GMT could materially shift this read; a hawkish track would test the 0.5700 psych again
M15 close above the 0.5687 swing high breaks the lower-high trendline
Failure to hold the 0.5678 session low exposes the 0.5671 window low
Day high at 0.57075 caps the range below the 0.5710 one-month high
21:05 UTC
Downtrend since NY open, lower highs · RSI 31 · price 0.56797
Triple rejection near 0.5700, lower-high chain into late NY.
The 0.5700 cap held again. Asia (0.57044), London (0.57075) and the NY-open retest (0.57045) all failed, and price has bled through the London low at 0.5684 into late NY as USD stayed bid ahead of the Fed. Price is now probing the 0.5680 psych level with RSI(14) near 31, under a lower-high trendline drawn from 0.5704. The 0.56817 prior low has flipped to overhead.
Support: 0.5680, 0.56707
Resistance: 0.56817, 0.56873, 0.5700
What it said to watch
RBNZ decision at 01:00 GMT (~4h) could materially shift this read; a hawkish track puts the 0.5700 cap back in play
M15 close back above the 0.56873 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Sustained trade below 0.5680 psych exposes the Asia rollover spike low at 0.56707
Failure to reclaim the 0.56817 prior low keeps the lower-high trendline intact
20:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since NY open · RSI 32 · price 0.56808
Lower-high/lower-low chain from 0.5708 day high; testing session low near Asia low.
NZD/USD again failed above the 0.5700 cap. It peaked at the 0.5708 day high during London, then printed a lower high at 0.5705 after the 14:00 UTC US data. NY has since stepped down through a lower-high/lower-low chain to a 0.5681 session low, retracing the full Asia-to-London gain back to the 0.5679 Asia low as the USD bid holds into the RBNZ, with RSI(14) near 32 but not yet extreme.
Support: 0.56808, 0.5679, 0.56707
Resistance: 0.56873, 0.5700, 0.57075
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5679 Asia low extends the lower-low sequence and exposes the 0.5671 rollover low
A close back above the 0.5687 bounce high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the downtrend read
RBNZ decision at 01:00 GMT (~4h) could reset session structure; the 0.5700 cap and 0.5708 day high mark the upside reference
Fed decision Wednesday 18:00 UTC follows the RBNZ and can override any post-RBNZ move
20:32 UTC
Downtrend from session high, pressing day low · RSI 38 · price 0.56829
Lower highs since London top, late-NY bounce faded.
Another rejection at the 0.5700 cap. London's push to a 0.57075 session high was followed by a lower high at 0.57045 in NY, then a steady sell-off to a 0.56817 day low as USD stayed bid into the Fed. The late-NY bounce stalled at 0.56873 and price is back near the lows, with RSI(14) around 38 and ATR(14) near 19 pips ahead of the RBNZ.
Support: 0.56817, 0.5680
Resistance: 0.56873, 0.5700, 0.57075
What it said to watch
RBNZ decision at 01:00 GMT (~4.5h) could materially shift this read. A cautious hike or a hold puts the asian low near 0.5680 in play.
An M15 close below the 0.56817 day low extends the lower-high sequence toward the asian low at 0.5680.
A close above the 0.56873 bounce high and the lower highs trendline neutralises the NY sell-off. The 0.5700 cap and 0.57075 session high sit above.
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC is the next scheduled USD risk after the RBNZ.
20:18 UTC
Downtrend since NY peak, momentum flattening · RSI 36 · price 0.56829
Lower highs from 0.57075; tight 0.5682–0.5687 base near day low.
Another rejection at the 0.5700 round number after the 0.57075 day high in the London-NY transition. Price slid through NY hours as USD firmed into the Fed and now sits at 0.5683, just above the 0.56817 day low and under descending highs. RSI(14) near 36 is not oversold, and thin late-NY trade is holding a narrow base below the 0.56873 bounce high.
Support: 0.56817, 0.5680
Resistance: 0.56873, 0.5700, 0.57075
What it said to watch
RBNZ decision at 01:00 GMT (~5h, Asia session) could materially shift this read; ATR near 2 pips understates the likely move
Failure to hold the 0.56817 day low exposes the 0.5680 psych level
M15 close above the 0.56873 bounce high and the descending highs line breaks the lower-high sequence
Recovery toward the 0.5700 round number and 0.57075 day high would test the cap that has rejected four sessions running
Lower highs from 0.57075; tight consolidation just above the session low.
Price was rejected above the 0.5700 psych cap three times today: 0.57045 in Asia, the 0.57075 day high in London and 0.57045 again at the NY open. That fed a steady NY selloff to a 0.56817 session low, below the London low, with USD firm on the durables beat. Late NY is now coiling in a 0.5682–0.5687 band under EMA20, with RSI(14) near 38 and ATR(14) around 2 pips ahead of the RBNZ.
Support: 0.56817, 0.5680
Resistance: 0.56873, 0.5700, 0.57075
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.56873 range top opens a retrace into the 0.5690–0.5693 band of the NY selloff fib
A break of the 0.56817 session low exposes the 0.5680 round number
The RBNZ decision at 01:00 GMT (about 5h away) is likely to reset this range; the guidance tone decides whether the 0.5700 psych cap gets retested
Only a reclaim of the 0.57075 day high breaks the lower-high sequence
Lower high under 0.5700, NY low at 0.5682 holding.
0.5700 psych capped again. The London-NY push to a 0.57075 session high briefly cleared the Asian high, then failed, and NY sold through the London low to a 0.5682 ny low as USD firmed into the Fed. Price is now stalling just under ema20 near 0.5688 on a 2-pip ATR ahead of the RBNZ.
Support: 0.56817, 0.5680
Resistance: 0.56881, 0.5700, 0.57075
What it said to watch
RBNZ decision at 01:00 GMT could materially shift this read; the guidance matters more than the largely priced hike
Failure to hold the ny low at 0.5682 exposes the 0.5680 round number
A close back above ema20 at 0.5688, then the 0.5700 psych, would neutralise the NY lower-high sequence below the 0.57075 session high
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC is a second event risk for this read
19:32 UTC
Downtrend from day high, now flat · RSI 39 · price 0.56856
The NY session saw another rejection at the 0.5700 cap: a 0.57075 day high, then a lower high at 0.57045, led a 26-pip slide through the London low to a 0.56817 session low as USD firmed into the Fed. Late NY price has compressed into a 4-pip consolidation near 0.5685, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 39 and ATR(14) about 2.3 pips.
Support: 0.56817, 0.5680
Resistance: 0.5690, 0.5700, 0.57075
What it said to watch
RBNZ decision 01:00 GMT, about 5.5h out. A 25bp hike to 3.00% is priced, so guidance could break the 0.5682–0.5686 consolidation either way.
Loss of the 0.56817 session low exposes the 0.5680 round number. A failure there confirms another lower low.
A recovery above the 0.5690 broken shelf (38.2% of the NY sell-off fib) would neutralise the lower-high sequence, with the 0.5700 cap and 0.57075 day high above.
Lower highs from 0.5708 session high; tight late-NY base above 0.5682.
London briefly cleared the Asian high to a 0.5708 session high, but price failed to hold above the 0.5700 psych level. Firm USD ahead of the Fed then drove a steady chain of lower highs through NY, taking out the London low and printing a 0.5682 NY low, with RSI(14) near 31. Late in NY, price is coiling between 0.5682 and the 0.5687 minor high, just above the 0.5680 Asian low.
Support: 0.56817, 0.5680
Resistance: 0.56873, 0.56946, 0.5700
What it said to watch
RBNZ decision and MPS at 01:00 GMT (~6h): OCR guidance can reprice this range in one bar
Failure to hold the 0.5682 NY low exposes the 0.5680 Asian low
Close above the 0.5687 minor high ends the NY lower-high sequence; the fib 50% at 0.5695 is the next test of the NY leg
0.5700 psych has capped price all day; a hold above it would negate the session false break
Fed decision Wednesday 18:00 UTC is the next USD risk after the RBNZ
Lower highs since 14:30 UTC, NY broke the London low.
Another rejection above the 0.5700 round number. The 0.57075 day high capped the London-NY rally, and a lower-high sequence through the NY session took out the London low into a 0.56817 NY low as USD firmed into the FOMC. Late NY is now compressing around 0.5684, with RSI(14) near 34 and ATR about 2.7 pips ahead of the RBNZ decision.
Support: 0.56817, 0.5679
Resistance: 0.5687, 0.5700, 0.57075
What it said to watch
RBNZ decision at 01:00 GMT (~6h away) could materially shift this read; the guidance, not the priced hike, is the swing factor
M15 close below the 0.56817 NY low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 0.5679 asian low
Recovery above the 0.5687 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and neutralises the NY selloff
Close back above the 0.5700 round number and the 0.57075 day high would end the cap
18:47 UTC
Downtrend from day high, momentum flattening · RSI 35 · price 0.56844
Lower highs and lower lows since London peak; London rally fully retraced.
Supply capped the move again just above the 0.5700 cap. The day high at 0.57075 was followed by a lower high at 0.57045 in the first hour of NY, then a steady NY session slide that erased the London rally to a 0.56817 NY low, with USD firm into the Fed. Price is now stalling at the London low near 0.5684, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 35, not oversold.
Support: 0.56817, 0.5679
Resistance: 0.56916, 0.5700, 0.57075
What it said to watch
RBNZ decision and statement at 01:00 GMT, about 6h out, could materially shift this read. Guidance, not the priced hike, is the swing factor.
Failure to hold the 0.56817 ny low exposes the 0.5679 prior low and the 0.5680 area.
Recovery above the 38.2% fib at 0.56916 would break the lower highs sequence off the day high.
Late NY into rollover is thin, so spread-driven wicks are not structural.
18:33 UTC
Downtrend, selling pace slowing · RSI 32 · price 0.56839
Lower highs since 14:30 UTC; Asian and London lows taken out.
NY printed a day high at 0.57075 into the US data but failed to hold above the 0.5700 round number, the fifth cap there. The NY sell-off then unwound the Asian range on the firm USD bid from the durables and confidence beats. Price undercut the London low to a 0.56817 session low and is now stalling just beneath 0.56844 late in the NY session, with RSI(14) near 32 and the 38.2% retracement of the sell-off at 0.5692.
Support: 0.56817, 0.5679
Resistance: 0.56844, 0.56905, 0.5700
What it said to watch
RBNZ decision at 01:00 GMT (~6.5h) could materially shift this read; a hawkish OCR track would put the 0.5700 round number back in play
Failure to hold the 0.56817 session low exposes the Monday low at 0.5679
M15 close back above the London low at 0.56844 would mark the first reclaim since the NY sell-off
Close above the 0.56905 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and invalidates the downtrend read
Lower highs from 0.57075; London low broken in NY.
London's push to 0.57075 was a false break of the Asian high near 0.5705 and faded under the 0.5700 round number. NY then set a lower high at 0.57045 and slid through the London low at 0.56844 to a day low at 0.56817 as USD firmed on the durables beat. RSI(14) is near 28 and price is sitting just above the Monday low at 0.5680.
Support: 0.56817, 0.5680
Resistance: 0.56844, 0.56916, 0.5700
What it said to watch
A close back above the 0.56844 London low would mark the break as a false break
Failure at 0.5680 Monday low would extend the lower-low sequence
Recovery through the 0.56916 fib 38.2 would weaken the lower-highs read
RBNZ decision at 01:00 UTC could materially shift this read during Asia
18:03 UTC
Downtrend through NY, RSI near oversold · RSI 23 · price 0.56824
Lower highs from 0.5707; Asian range low and London low broken.
Rejection below 0.5700 again. NY printed a lower high at 0.5704, then sold off steadily, breaking the Asian low at 0.5687 and the London low at 0.5685 as USD stayed bid into FOMC. Price sits at the session low of 0.5682, just above the Monday low near 0.5680, with RSI(14) at 23 in late NY.
Support: 0.56822, 0.5680
Resistance: 0.5685, 0.5687, 0.57045
What it said to watch
RBNZ decision at 01:00 GMT (about 7h away) could materially shift this read; guidance matters more than the expected hike
A close below the 0.5680 monday low extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery back above the london low at 0.5685 and the asian low at 0.5687 would mark the range break as a false break
A break of the NY trendline and the 0.5704 lower high negates the intraday downtrend; the ny sell-off fib maps retrace levels
Lower high at 0.57045 under the 0.57075 day high; NY selloff testing London low.
London pushed to a 0.57075 day high, but NY printed a lower high at 0.57045 and rolled over, another failure around 0.5700 psych as USD stays bid into the FOMC. Late NY has broken the 0.5694 NY swing low and is pressing the 0.5684 London low with RSI(14) near 17, oversold.
Support: 0.56844, 0.5680
Resistance: 0.5694, 0.5700, 0.57075
What it said to watch
Break of the 0.5684 London low opens the 0.5680 Asia low
Recovery above the 0.5694 NY swing low would break the lower-high sequence on the descending line
RBNZ decision at 01:00 GMT Wed (about 7h) could materially shift this read; 0.5700 psych and the 0.57075 day high are the upside markers
17:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend off the session high · RSI 27 · price 0.5686
Lower highs since 12:15 UTC, testing London low.
London's rally stalled at a 0.5708 session high. A lower high at 0.5705 followed during NY hours as firm US durables and CB confidence lifted the dollar, and the move has since retraced almost the entire London leg. Price is now pressing the London low at 0.5684 with RSI(14) near 27 and ATR around 32 pips, with the Asia low at 0.5680 just below.
Support: 0.56844, 0.5680
Resistance: 0.5690, 0.5700, 0.57075
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5684 london low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 0.5680 asia low
Reclaim of the 0.5690 breakdown level and the 0.5700 round number would neutralise the NY sell-off read
A push back through the lower highs toward the 0.5708 session high would reset the intraday structure
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 GMT (~7.5h) could materially shift this read
17:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 29 · price 0.5686
Failed break above Asian high; NY slide testing London low.
London pushed above the Asian high to a 0.5708 session high but could not hold the 0.5700 round number. A lower high at 0.5705 during NY hours, with firm US data lifting the dollar, preceded a steady slide through the 0.5694 NY swing low. Price is now testing the London low with roughly 92% of the London rally fib retraced and RSI(14) near 29.
Support: 0.56844, 0.5680
Resistance: 0.5694, 0.5700, 0.57075
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.5684 London low sets a lower low for the day and exposes the 0.5680 prior low
A reclaim of 0.5694, the NY swing low, breaks the lower-highs sequence
Another rejection below the 0.5700 round number keeps the session high at 0.5708 intact
RBNZ decision at 01:00 GMT Wed lands in the Asia session and could reset this structure
Lower highs and lower lows since 14:30 UTC; Asian range broken to the downside.
The NY push to a 0.5708 session high failed back under the 0.5700 round number, the fifth rejection there as firm US data kept the dollar bid. Price has since fully retraced the London-NY leg to 0.5687 and sits just above the 0.5684 London low. RSI(14) is near 27 and ATR is about 4 pips into the late NY session.
Support: 0.56844, 0.5680
Resistance: 0.56953, 0.5700, 0.57075
What it said to watch
A close below the london low at 0.5684 exposes the prior low near 0.5680 from Monday evening
A recovery above the ny swing low at 0.5695 breaks the lower-high sequence
The round number at 0.5700 and the 0.5708 session high remain the rejection zone
RBNZ decision at 01:00 GMT Wed (25bp hike ~90% priced) could materially shift this read in Asia
16:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend from session high, RSI near 30 · RSI 31 · price 0.56871
Lower highs below 0.5700 since the 0.57075 London high; now probing London low.
London's push to a 0.57075 session high failed to hold above the 0.5700 cap, which has now rejected for a fifth session, and NY printed a lower high at 0.57045 as the firm US data run kept USD bid. Price has slid through the NY swing low at 0.5694 and gave back more than 78.6% of the London rally fib from 0.56844. It now sits just above the London low with RSI(14) near 31 after London close.
Support: 0.56844, 0.5680
Resistance: 0.5694, 0.5700, 0.57075
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.56844 London low exposes the 0.5680 Asian low
Recovery above the 0.5694 NY swing low breaks the lower-high sequence and brings the 0.5700 cap back into view
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 GMT (~8h) could materially shift this read; a hold against ~90% hike pricing is the downside tail
Fed decision later Wednesday keeps USD-driven caps near 0.5700 in play
16:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend from session high · RSI 31 · price 0.56889
Lower highs below 0.5700, NY low broken.
Another rejection above the 0.5700 round number: the session high at 0.57075 printed in the first hour of NY, followed by lower highs and a slide through the 0.5694 NY low to 0.5689, with RSI(14) near 31. Price sits on the 78.6% retrace of the London leg from 0.56844, with USD firm on strong US durables and confidence data.
Support: 0.56844, 0.5680
Resistance: 0.5694, 0.5700, 0.57075
What it said to watch
A break below the 0.56844 London low exposes the 0.5680 Asian low
Reclaiming the 0.5694 NY low would weaken the lower-highs sequence
An M15 close back above the 0.5700 round number invalidates the rejection read
The RBNZ decision at 01:00 GMT Wed could materially shift this read, with the Asian session likely to be thin into it
16:17 UTC
Intraday down leg from session high, momentum heavy · RSI 31 · price 0.56892
Lower high at 0.5704 under 0.5708 session high; selling into London lows.
London's 0.5708 session high was a false break of the 0.5704 Asian high. The NY-open bounce then stalled at 0.5704, leaving a lower high, and a five-bar slide has retraced ~80% of the London leg to 0.5689. RSI(14) is near 31 with price below EMA20/50 as firm US data and pre-Fed USD demand cap the round number at 0.5700 again; the london low at 0.5684 is next, then the asian base near 0.5680.
Support: 0.56844, 0.5680
Resistance: 0.5694, 0.5700, 0.57075
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5684 london low exposes the 0.5680 asian base and turns the London leg fib into a full retrace
Reclaim of the 0.5694 ny pivot, the 14:00 UTC swing low, eases downside pressure; the lower-high trendline from 0.5708 caps near 0.5700
Close above the 0.5708 session high negates the false-break read at the round number
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 GMT (~9h out) and FOMC later Wednesday could materially shift this read
16:03 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since day high · RSI 39 · price 0.56931
False break above 0.5700, LH/LL sequence in NY.
The push through the Asian high to a 0.57075 day high could not hold above the 0.5700 round number. USD firmed on the Durable Goods and CB Confidence beats, leaving a lower high at 0.57045 and a fresh NY low at 0.56915. Price is sitting on the 61.8% fib of the 0.56844 london low to 0.57075 leg after London close, with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 0.56915, 0.56844, 0.5680
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.57045, 0.57075
What it said to watch
A break below the 0.56915 ny low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.56844 london low.
A close back above the 0.5700 round number and the 0.57045 lower high would negate the rejection read and put the 0.57075 day high back in focus.
The 0.5680 asian base marks the floor of the 24h range.
The RBNZ decision at 01:00 GMT Wed can override the intraday structure; a 25bp hike is ~90% priced, so guidance carries the move.
15:47 UTC
Range, rolling over from 0.5700 · RSI 41 · price 0.56947
Failed break of Asian high, lower high in NY, price pressing NY low.
London cleared the Asian high to a 0.5708 session high but could not hold above the 0.5700 psych cap, a fifth rejection there as USD stays bid on firm US data. A lower high at 0.5705 in NY has left price pressing the 0.5694 NY low, near the 50–61.8% retracement of the London leg from 0.5684.
Support: 0.5694, 0.56844
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.57045, 0.57075
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5694 NY low exposes the 61.8% fib of the London leg and then the 0.5684 London low
Recovery above the 0.5705 lower high and the 0.5708 session high negates the rejection read
RBNZ decision at 01:00 GMT (~9h) could materially shift this read, with the Fed following Wednesday
15:32 UTC
Intraday up-leg stalling, fading in NY · RSI 41 · price 0.56968
Lower high at 0.5705 in NY under 0.5708 session high; NY low 0.5694 holding.
London cleared the Asian high and printed a 0.5708 session high. NY faded it back under the 0.5700 psych level, which the digest notes has capped NZD for four sessions as USD stays firm into the Fed. Price now sits near the 50% retrace of the london low-to-high leg, just under both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 41 and a lower high at 0.5705.
Support: 0.5694, 0.56844
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.57075
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5694 ny low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 61.8% at 0.5693 and the 0.5684 london low
Reclaim and hold above the 0.5700 psych level, with a break of the trendline from the session high, negates the NY fade
Break above the 0.5708 session high opens the 0.5710 one-month high cited in the digest
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 GMT (~15h, 25bp hike ~90% priced) could materially shift this read; pre-event chop likely keeps ranges tight (ATR ~4 pips)
London swept the Asian low and printed a 0.5684 London low, then broke the 0.5700 round number to a 0.57075 day high. The firm US durables print knocked it back to a 0.5694 NY low near the 61.8% fib of the London leg, which kept the higher-lows sequence intact. Mid-NY, price is retesting 0.5700 and pinned to EMA20, with RSI(14) at 49 and ATR(14) near 4 pips.
Support: 0.5694, 0.56844
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.57045, 0.57075
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5694 NY low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 0.5684 London low
A clear break of the 0.57045 Asia high and the 0.57075 day high opens the 0.5710 one-month high
The RBNZ decision at 01:00 GMT Wed (25bp hike ~90% priced) could materially shift this read; the Fed follows later Wed
Higher lows from London low, lower high at 14:30 UTC, compressing 0.5694–0.5708.
London swept below the Asian range to a 0.5684 london low, then reversed. Price broke the 0.5705 Asian high to a 0.5708 session high as RBNZ hike bets firmed. NY pulled back to a 0.5694 ny low near the 61.8% fib and has recovered to the 0.5700 psych level, with RSI(14) neutral at 54 and ATR about 4 pips.
Support: 0.5700, 0.5694, 0.56844
Resistance: 0.57075, 0.5710
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5694 ny low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising support
A clear break of the 0.5708 session high exposes the 0.5710 month high, which has capped price four sessions running
Loss of the 0.5684 london low would negate the London reversal
RBNZ decision at Wed 01:00 GMT (~10h) could materially shift this read; Fed follows later Wednesday
Higher low at 0.5694 after London false break, coiling under session high.
London dipped below the Asian range to a 0.5684 london low, then reversed through the Asian high to a 0.5708 session high. NY pulled back to a 0.5694 swing low near the 61.8% fib of that leg and has recovered to the 0.5700 round number, where the pair is coiling with RSI(14) neutral near 52 as USD firmness into the Fed meets firming RBNZ hike bets.
Support: 0.5700, 0.5694, 0.56844
Resistance: 0.57075, 0.5710
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5694 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence from the london low and reopens 0.5684
Close above the 0.5708 session high exposes the 0.5710 month high, a cap rejected four sessions running
Repeated closes back under the 0.5700 round number would point to another rejection at the cap
RBNZ decision and MPS Wed 01:00 GMT (~10h, 25bp hike ~90% priced) could materially shift this read
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC adds USD-side event risk
14:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back off session high · RSI 53 · price 0.57004
Lower highs since 0.5707 peak; 61.8% held, price pivoting on 0.5700.
London rallied off the 0.5684 London low through the 0.5700 psych cap and the 0.5704 Asian high, peaking at the 0.5707 session high around the 12:30 UTC US data. Mixed Durables and a firm USD drove a lower-highs pullback to a 0.5694 NY low near the 61.8% fib, and price is back on 0.5700 with RSI(14) neutral near 53 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 0.5700, 0.5694, 0.56844
Resistance: 0.57045, 0.57075, 0.5710
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5694 NY low breaks the 61.8% hold and exposes the 0.5684 London low
Close above the 0.5707 session high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 0.5710 one-month high in play; failure there marks a fifth rejection near 0.5700
RBNZ decision at 01:00 GMT Wed and the Fed later Wednesday could materially shift this read
14:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back to 0.5700 · RSI 50 · price 0.56994
Higher lows from London low; lower highs since 0.57075 session high.
NZD pushed through the 0.5700 cap in the London-NY transition as RBNZ hike bets firmed, printing a session high at 0.57075 before easing back to retest 0.5700. Higher lows from the London low at 0.5684 to the 0.5694 swing low remain intact; RSI(14) is flat near 50 and ATR(14) is about 4 pips.
Support: 0.5694, 0.56844
Resistance: 0.57075, 0.5710
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5694 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and the 61.8% fib of the London low–session high move
Reclaim of the 0.57075 session high would put the 0.5710 month high in play
Loss of 0.5684 London low returns price to the Asian range
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 GMT and the Fed later Wednesday could materially shift this read
Failed break above Asian high, retracing toward the London rally base.
London dipped below the Asian low to 0.5684, then rallied through the 0.5705 Asian high to a 0.5708 session high at 12:15 UTC. The move failed to hold, and price has slipped back under the 0.5700 round number on a series of lower highs. Early NY trade now sits at the 50% fib near 0.5696, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 43. The firmer USD into the Fed continues to cap the pair at 0.5700.
Support: 0.5690, 0.56864, 0.56844
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.57045, 0.57075
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5700 round number and the lower-highs line negates the false-break read
Failure to hold the 0.5690 rally base (61.8% fib zone) exposes the 0.5686 Asian low and the 0.5684 London low
Reclaim of the 0.5705 Asian high and the 0.5708 session high would restore the intraday higher-high chain
US Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales at 14:00 UTC are the last pre-Fed data check
RBNZ decision at 01:00 GMT Wed could materially shift this read
13:48 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 51 · price 0.56982
Higher lows since London low; break above Asian high now fading below 0.5700.
The London leg cleared the Asian high at 0.57045 to a 0.57075 session high, but the move faded after the US durable goods beat at 12:30 UTC, and price slipped back under the 0.5700 round number, which has capped NZD all week. The pullback is holding the London trendline and the 38.2% fib near the 0.5697 swing low. RSI(14) is neutral at about 51 and ATR is roughly 4 pips.
Support: 0.5697, 0.56844
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.57075
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5697 swing low breaks the London trendline and exposes the 0.56844 London low
Reclaim of the 0.5700 round number and a break of the 0.57075 session high would reopen the 0.5710 one-month high
US Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC is the last pre-Fed data check and could move USD
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 GMT (~11h) could materially reset this read
False break above Asian high, pullback to rising support.
Early NY pushed through the 0.57045 Asian high to a 0.57075 session high. Price then fell back under the 0.5700 round number after the Durable Goods headline beat, a false break that repeats the recent cap at that level. Price is sitting on ema20 and the 38.2% fib of the London-NY leg near 0.5699, with rising support and the 0.5697 NY low just below.
Support: 0.5697, 0.56844
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.57045, 0.57075
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5700 round number and the 0.57045 Asian high reopens the 0.57075 session high
Failure to hold the 0.5697 NY low and rising support exposes the 50–61.8% zone of the London-NY leg (0.5696–0.5693), then the 0.56844 London low
US Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, then the RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 GMT (~11h), could materially shift this read
Higher lows from London low, breakout above Asian high now retesting 0.5700.
Higher lows from the 0.5684 London low carried price through the 0.5700 cap and the 0.57045 Asian high, printing a 0.57075 session high in the London-NY transition as RBNZ hike bets firmed. Price is back on the 0.5700 round number in early NY, testing the breakout with RSI(14) cooling toward 58.
Support: 0.5700, 0.5697, 0.56844
Resistance: 0.57045, 0.57075, 0.5710
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5697 pullback low turns the breakout into a false break and points to the London trendline
Reclaiming the 0.57045 Asian high and 0.57075 session high puts the 0.5710 month high in play
US Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could jolt the 0.5700 test
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 GMT (~12h) could materially shift this read
Higher lows since the London low, now holding a break of the Asian high.
London cleared the Asian high at 0.57045 and the 0.5700 psych cap that had held for four sessions, with RBNZ hike bets firming, and printed a session high at 0.57075. Price is now holding the 0.5702 pullback low through the London-NY transition. RSI(14) is near 64 and the higher-low chain from the 0.56844 London low is intact along the London trendline.
Support: 0.5702, 0.5700, 0.56971
Resistance: 0.57075, 0.5710
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 0.5700 psych would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 0.56971 swing low breaks the London higher-low chain
Clearance of the 0.57075 session high exposes the 0.5710 1m high
US Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC and the RBNZ decision at 01:00 GMT Wed could materially shift this read
12:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, early NY pullback · RSI 61 · price 0.57038
HH/HL chain since the 08:15 London low; above 0.5700 psych.
The London leg ran from the 0.5684 London low through the 0.5700 psych cap, which had held for four sessions, and topped the 0.5704 Asian high to set a 0.5708 session high as RBNZ hike bets firmed. First NY bars are easing back below the Asian high and sitting on the rising trendline, with RSI(14) near 61 and the 0.5697 swing low the last higher low.
Support: 0.5700, 0.56971, 0.56844
Resistance: 0.57045, 0.57075, 0.5710
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 0.5700 psych turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 0.5697 swing low breaks the HL chain and exposes the 0.5684 London low
Close above the 0.5708 session high puts the 0.5710 1-month high in play
US Consumer Confidence at 14:00 GMT, then RBNZ at 01:00 GMT Wed (~12h), could materially shift this read
12:32 UTC
Uptrend, breaking higher into NY open · RSI 68 · price 0.57059
Higher lows since London low; Asian high and 0.5700 cap cleared.
Buyers defended the 0.5684 London low and built higher lows through late London. At the NY open price cleared the 0.5700 prior cap and the 0.5704 Asian high, printing a 0.5708 session high with RSI(14) near 68. The move tests the cap that has rejected NZD four sessions running, with Durable Goods landing and RBNZ about 12h out.
Support: 0.57045, 0.5700, 0.56844
Resistance: 0.57075, 0.5710
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5700 prior cap would turn the move into a false break
Acceptance above the 0.5710 month high extends the breakout; rejection there repeats the multi-session cap
Loss of the 0.5684 London low breaks the higher-low chain
Durable Goods (12:30 GMT) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 GMT) could shift USD tone during NY hours
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Higher lows since the London low; 0.5700 cap reclaimed.
London dipped below the Asian low to the 0.5684 london low, then the London leg reclaimed the 0.5700 psych cap with higher lows at 0.5687, 0.5690 and the 0.5697 swing low. Into the NY open, price is pressing the 0.5705 session high just under the 0.5710 month high as RBNZ hike bets firm, with RSI(14) at 66 and not stretched.
Support: 0.5700, 0.5697, 0.5684
Resistance: 0.5705, 0.5710
What it said to watch
US Durable Goods at 12:30 GMT lands with price at the session high and could shift this read
An M15 close back below the 0.5700 psych level marks a false break of the four-session cap
Acceptance above the 0.5710 month high clears the cap that has held all week
A break of the 0.5697 swing low ends the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.5684 london low
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 GMT could materially reset intraday structure
Higher lows since London low, consolidating under Asian high.
London built higher lows off the 0.5684 London low and broke the 0.5696 session range mid-morning, but price is stalling between 0.5697 and the 0.5702 London high, just under the 0.5705 Asian high. Firming RBNZ hike bets are lifting NZD into the 0.5700 cap while USD demand ahead of the Fed persists. RSI(14) is near 62 and ATR(14) about 4 pips.
Support: 0.56971, 0.56895, 0.56844
Resistance: 0.57022, 0.57045, 0.5710
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5705 Asian high clears the 0.5700 cap and brings the 0.5710 1-month high into view
Break of the 0.5697 intraday low returns price to the higher-low trendline near 0.5690
Loss of the 0.5684 London low breaks the higher-low sequence
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, plus the RBNZ decision at 01:00 GMT Wed, could materially shift this read
11:47 UTC
Intraday higher lows, stalling at 0.5700 cap · RSI 61 · price 0.56977
Higher-low chain from London low, capped under Asian high.
The London leg built higher lows from 0.5684 and returned to a 0.5702 session high, where four bars stalled under the 0.5705 Asian high and the 0.5700 cap that has held for four sessions. Price is slipping back below 0.5700 with RSI(14) near 61 and ATR around 4 pips, still inside the 0.5684–0.5705 range ahead of NY data and tomorrow's RBNZ.
Support: 0.56895, 0.56844
Resistance: 0.57022, 0.57045
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5705 asian high breaks the range top and the multi-session 0.5700 cap
Loss of the 0.5690 swing low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 0.5684 london low
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) during NY hours could shift the read
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 GMT (~13h) could materially reprice this range
London printed a higher-low chain off the 0.5684 London low and reclaimed 0.5700 late in the session. The 0.5698 pullback low held on the retest, and price now sits just under the 0.5704 Asian high, the same 0.5700 cap the digest says has rejected NZD four sessions running on firm USD demand ahead of the Fed. RSI(14) is near 65, not stretched, and ATR(14) is about 4 pips.
Support: 0.5698, 0.56867, 0.56844
Resistance: 0.57045, 0.5710
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.5704 Asian high opens the 0.5710 one-month high
Loss of the 0.5698 pullback low turns the 0.5700 break into a false break, with 0.5687 (higher low) next
Break below the 0.5684 London low undoes the intraday higher-low structure
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could shift USD into the NY open
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC is the larger event risk for this range
London higher-low chain inside the Asian range; 0.5700–0.5705 capping.
Mid-London, NZDUSD has built higher lows off the 0.5684 london low and printed a london high at 0.5702. That is still below the 0.5705 asian high, so the 0.5700 cap noted in the digest is holding as USD demand into the Fed absorbs firmer RBNZ hike bets.
Support: 0.5690, 0.5684, 0.5670
Resistance: 0.5702, 0.5705, 0.5710
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5705 asian high breaks the session cap and exposes the 0.5710 month high
Loss of the 0.5690 higher low breaks the London rising trendline and returns focus to the 0.5684 london low
Close below the 0.5684 london low opens the 0.5670 prior low
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC during NY hours could materially shift this read
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 GMT (~15h) is the dominant event risk for the 0.5700 cap
11:04 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London open · RSI 61 · price 0.57009
Higher-low chain from London low, pressing Asian range top.
London held 0.5684 as the session low and built higher lows at 0.5687 and 0.5690. The breakout through 0.5695 has lifted price back to the 0.5700 round number, just under the 0.5705 Asian high. RSI(14) is near 61, firm but not stretched, as RBNZ hike bets offset a broadly firm USD that has capped 0.5700 four sessions running.
Support: 0.5695, 0.56867, 0.56844
Resistance: 0.57045, 0.5710
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5705 Asian high clears the Asian range and puts the 0.5710 1m high in play
Slip back below the 0.5695 breakout and the rising trendline returns focus to the 0.5687 higher low
Break of the 0.5684 London low negates the higher-low chain
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC could shift USD into the NY open
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 GMT (~14h) is the larger risk to this read
10:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pressing the 0.5700 cap · RSI 63 · price 0.57018
London higher lows, breakout above range top, below Asia high.
London built higher lows off the 0.5684 session low and broke the 0.5696 range top. Price is back above the 0.5700 psych cap, which has rejected four sessions running, with the 0.57045 Asia high just overhead. RSI(14) near 63 is not stretched and ATR(14) is about 4.4 pips, so the test is unfolding at normal pace ahead of Wednesday's RBNZ.
Support: 0.5700, 0.5696, 0.56895
Resistance: 0.57045, 0.5710
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5696 range top would mark a false break and a fifth rejection at the 0.5700 psych cap
A clear break of the 0.57045 Asia high opens the 0.5710 month high
Loss of the 0.56895 higher low breaks the london HL line and the intraday sequence
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC could shift USD tone; RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 GMT is the main risk
10:32 UTC
Intraday range, recovering from London low · RSI 55 · price 0.56951
London range 0.5684–0.5695 with a higher low, below the Asian high.
Asia ran to an asian high of 0.5704 but could not hold above the 0.5700 round number. London has since built a 0.5684–0.5695 range, printing a higher low at 0.5687 above the 0.5684 london low. Late in London, price is pressing the range top near the 50% retracement of the Asia–London drop, with RSI(14) neutral at 55 and USD firm into Wednesday's RBNZ and Fed.
Support: 0.56867, 0.56844
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.57045
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.5700 round number brings the 0.5704 asian high back into play
A break of the 0.5687 higher low exposes the 0.5684 london low and the Asian range floor
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could shift USD tone around the NY open
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 GMT (~15h) is the main event risk for this structure
10:17 UTC
Sideways, lower highs since Asian peak · RSI 45 · price 0.56897
London range 0.5684–0.5695 beneath falling lower-highs line.
Asia extended Monday's rally to a 0.57045 Asian high but was rejected again at the 0.5700 cap, consistent with USD demand into the Fed. Mid-London, price is rotating between the 0.5684 London low and 0.5695 London high under a lower-highs line, sitting just under EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) near 45 and the 38.2% of the Monday rally fib at 0.5691 overhead.
Support: 0.56844, 0.5680, 0.56696
Resistance: 0.56954, 0.5700, 0.57045
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5684 London low exposes the 0.5680 round number, then Monday's 0.5670 prior low
M15 close above the 0.5695 London high and the lower-highs line reopens the 0.5700 round number and the 0.57045 Asian high
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC, then the RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 GMT (~15h), could materially shift this read
London consolidation 0.5684–0.5696 inside the Asian range after a rejection at the Asian high.
The Asian session rallied through the 0.5700 psych level to an Asian high of 0.5705, then rejected. That marks another failure at the cap the digest ties to pre-Fed USD demand. London has since held a tight 0.5684–0.5696 consolidation around the 50% retrace of the Asian leg, with a higher low at 0.5687 against lower highs from the Asian high. Price sits on flat EMAs and RSI(14) is near 48.
Support: 0.56867, 0.56844, 0.56798
Resistance: 0.56954, 0.5700, 0.57045
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5695 london high reopens the 0.5700 psych cap and the 0.5705 asian high
Break of the 0.5687 higher low and the 0.5684 london low exposes the 0.5680 asian low and the 78.6% retrace
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could break the London range in NY hours
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 GMT (~15h) could materially shift this read
09:48 UTC
Sideways after Asia rejection at 0.5700 · RSI 48 · price 0.56926
London range 0.5684–0.5695 below a lower-highs line.
Asia pushed through the 0.5700 round number to a 0.5705 asia high, then the false break dropped price back to the 0.5689 fib 61.8 of the overnight rally. London is rotating between the 0.5684 london low and the 0.5695 london high under a line of lower highs. RSI(14) is near 48 and price is pinned to EMA20/EMA50, with pre-Fed USD firmness keeping the 0.5700 cap intact.
Support: 0.5689, 0.5684, 0.5680
Resistance: 0.5695, 0.5700, 0.57045
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5695 london high and the lower highs line puts the 0.5700 round number and 0.5705 asia high back in play
Break of the 0.5684 london low exposes the 0.5680 asia base and the 78.6% of the overnight rally
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC could break the London range during NY hours
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 GMT (~15h) could materially shift this read
09:32 UTC
Intraday pullback from Asia high, lower highs · RSI 43 · price 0.56878
Lower highs and lower lows below 0.5700 inside the Asian range.
Asia's push to the 0.57045 asian high was rejected just above the 0.5700 round number. London has printed lower highs since, with the 0.56954 london high capping and price now below the 61.8% retrace of the asian leg fib near 0.5689. RSI(14) sits near 43 with ATR(14) around 4 pips, and the range is still inside the Asian low-to-high band with firm USD into the Fed capping bounces.
Support: 0.56844, 0.56798
Resistance: 0.56954, 0.57045
What it said to watch
Break below the 0.56844 london low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.56798 asian low
M15 close above the 0.56954 london high breaks the lower-highs trendline
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC could shift the NY session read
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC (~16h) is the larger event risk for the 0.5700 lid
09:17 UTC
Sideways, lower high off the Asia peak · RSI 53 · price 0.56934
Range under 0.5700; London low swept and reclaimed.
The Asia session rally stalled at the 0.57045 asian high, a brief poke through the 0.5700 round number that NZD has repeatedly failed to hold. Early London swept the 0.56877 low down to the 0.56844 london low before snapping back to 0.5694. Price is now at the 50% retrace of that drop, with USD firmness capping gains ahead of the RBNZ and the Fed.
Support: 0.56844, 0.56798
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.57045
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.56844 london low reopens the 0.5680 asian low
Acceptance above the 0.5700 round number and the 0.57045 asian high breaks the range read
Rejection at the 50–61.8% fib (0.5695–0.5697) keeps the lower-high sequence intact
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Conference Board Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC could shift USD intraday
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC (~16h) is the dominant risk for the range
09:05 UTC
Intraday range, two-way · RSI 54 · price 0.56934
0.5684–0.5705 range; Asia rejected above 0.5700, London false break below Asian low.
Asia pushed through the 0.5700 psych to an asian high at 0.5705 but could not hold it, extending the run of failures at that cap. London dipped through the Asian low to a london low at 0.5684, then reclaimed the 0.5690 swing low. Price now sits near the 50% retracement of that move as USD firms ahead of the RBNZ and Fed decisions.
Support: 0.5690, 0.56844, 0.56696
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.57045
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5700 psych and 0.5705 asian high breaks the cap that rejected Asia
Loss of the 0.5684 london low exposes the NY prior low at 0.5670
Failure to hold the 0.5690 swing low returns price to the range floor
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) could move USD during NY hours
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC (~16h) is the main event risk; range may stay compressed until then
08:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 35 · price 0.56851
Lower highs from 0.5704; London broke below the Asian range low at 0.5690.
The Asian rally was rejected at 0.5704, marking the Asian high and another failure above 0.5700. London has slipped below the 0.5690 Asian low, with a lower high at 0.5696. Price sits at 0.5685, the 78.6% retrace of the Asian leg, with RSI(14) near 35, as a pre-FOMC USD bid caps NZD ahead of the RBNZ decision.
Support: 0.5680, 0.56696
Resistance: 0.5689, 0.56961, 0.57045
What it said to watch
A close back above the 0.5690 Asian low negates the range break; staying below keeps the lower-high trendline intact
Loss of psych 0.5680 exposes the Monday low at 0.5670
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Conference Board confidence (14:00 UTC) could shift the read into NY
RBNZ decision at 01:00 UTC Wed could materially reset this structure
08:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend from the Asian high · RSI 35 · price 0.56851
Lower highs since 0.5704, London broke below the Asian range low.
Asia's rally stalled at the 0.5704 Asian high, again rejected near the 0.5700 cap as USD demand built into the Fed. Since then lower highs have formed, and London has slipped below the 0.5686 Asian low, near the 78.6% retrace of the Asian rally. RSI(14) sits near 35 with price under both EMAs; the 0.5682 swing low and 0.5680 round number are next below.
Support: 0.5682, 0.5680, 0.5670
Resistance: 0.5686, 0.5693, 0.5704
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5686 Asian low negates the London range break
Close above the 0.5693 lower high breaks the descending trendline from the Asian high
Failure to hold the 0.5680 round number exposes the Monday low near 0.5670
US durables at 12:30 UTC and the RBNZ decision at 01:00 UTC Wed could materially shift this read
08:17 UTC
Intraday pullback from Asia high, momentum soft · RSI 40 · price 0.56882
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.57045 asia high; London open printed a fresh session low.
The Asia-session rally off the 0.5680 asia base briefly cleared the 0.5700 round number to 0.57045. It then reversed, with a lower high at 0.5696 and a fresh session low at 0.56874 on London open as USD stays firm into the Fed. Price is sitting on the 50% fib of the NY low–Asia high move, with RSI(14) near 40 and ATR(14) about 3 pips.
Support: 0.56874, 0.5680, 0.56696
Resistance: 0.56961, 0.5700, 0.57045
What it said to watch
Break of the 0.56874 session low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 0.5680 asia base
Loss of 0.5680 exposes yesterday's 0.5670 ny low
An M15 close above the 0.5696 lower high and the trendline resistance invalidates the pullback read
Acceptance above the 0.5700 round number and the 0.57045 asia high would break the multi-session cap
US Durables at 12:30 UTC and Conference Board at 14:00 UTC; the RBNZ decision in ~17h could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Asia high, testing 61.8% fib at London open.
Asia's push through 0.5700 to the asia high at 0.5704 failed again. Price has retraced to the fib 61.8 of the Asian leg near 0.5689 into London open, under a lower-highs line from that peak. The morning high at 0.5696 is capping, with USD firm on pre-Fed short-covering and the RBNZ decision ahead.
Support: 0.56885, 0.56798, 0.56696
Resistance: 0.56961, 0.57045
What it said to watch
M15 close below the fib 61.8 at 0.5688 exposes the asian low at 0.5680
Break of the asian low opens the monday low at 0.5670
Close above the morning high at 0.5696 breaks the lower-highs line and brings the asia high back into play
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could move USD during NY hours
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:47 UTC
Range after failed push above 0.5700 · RSI 51 · price 0.5693
Asia false break above 0.5700 and lower highs; early London ranging 0.5688–0.5696.
Asia pushed through the 0.5700 round number to a 0.5705 asia high but could not hold it. This is another stall at the level as USD stays firm into the Fed, and price has slipped back into the 50–61.8% zone of the Asia rally fib. Early London is ranging between the 0.5688 session low and the 0.5696 london high, capped by a lower highs line, with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 0.5688, 0.5680
Resistance: 0.5696, 0.5700, 0.5705
What it said to watch
Break of the 0.5688 session low exposes the 0.5680 ny base from late NY
M15 close above the 0.5696 london high and the lower highs line puts the 0.5700 round number and 0.5705 asia high back in play
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Conference Board confidence at 14:00 UTC could shift USD during NY hours
RBNZ decision on Wed at 01:00 UTC is the main event risk for this range
07:33 UTC
Asia rally rejected, now flat into London · RSI 48 · price 0.56926
Lower highs off 0.5705, compressing 0.5688–0.5696.
The Asian rally from the 0.5680 asian low ran into the 0.5700 psych cap again and was rejected at the 0.5705 asian high, with pre-Fed USD demand still capping NZD ahead of RBNZ. The pullback held at the fib 61.8 near 0.5689 into London open, and price is now compressing beneath a 0.5696 range top along a lower-highs line, RSI(14) neutral at 48.
Support: 0.5689, 0.5680, 0.5670
Resistance: 0.5696, 0.5700, 0.5705
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5696 range top breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 0.5700 psych and 0.5705 asian high back in play
Failure to hold the fib 61.8 at 0.5689 exposes the 0.5680 asian low, then the 0.5670 prior low from Monday's NY session
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC lands in the NY session and could break the compression
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC (~17h) is the main event risk for this range
False break above 0.5700, lower high at 0.5696; London low 0.5688 holding.
Asia session pushed through the 0.5700 round number to an Asian high at 0.57045 but failed to hold, a fifth stall at that cap as USD firmed pre-Fed. The pullback found the 38.2-50% fib of the NY-to-Asia leg, and the London open dip to the 0.5688 london low was bought. Price is now back under EMA20 and sitting on EMA50, with RSI(14) near 40 and a lower high at 0.5696.
Support: 0.56877, 0.5680, 0.56696
Resistance: 0.56961, 0.5700, 0.57045
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5696 lower high and the 0.5700 round number reopens the 0.57045 asian high
Failure to hold the 0.5688 london low and fib 50% exposes the ny base near 0.5680, then the prior low at 0.5670
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Conference Board Confidence 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC (~18h) is the main event risk for the 0.5680-0.5710 range
07:04 UTC
Pullback after Asian rally, compressing · RSI 46 · price 0.56924
Lower highs off 0.57045 Asian high; holding 61.8% fib near 0.5690.
The Asian rally ran from the 0.5680 Asian low to 0.57045. The brief push above the 0.5700 psych level was rejected again, extending the run of failed sessions there as USD holds firm pre-FOMC. The pullback held the fib 61.8 near 0.5690. Price is now compressing between 0.5690 and the 0.5696 lower high into London open, with RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 0.5690, 0.5687, 0.5680
Resistance: 0.5696, 0.5700, 0.57045
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.5696 lower high and the 0.5700 psych level reopens the 0.57045 Asian high.
Failure at the 0.5690 fib 61.8 exposes the 0.5687 asia pivot, then the 0.5680 Asian low.
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could shift the USD tone during NY hours.
Positioning ahead of the RBNZ decision (Wed 01:00 UTC) may keep 0.5700 capped through today's sessions.
06:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back · RSI 42 · price 0.56924
Asia high at 0.5705 rejected, higher low holding at 0.5690.
The Asia rally lifted NZDUSD from the 0.5680 asia base to a 0.5705 session high. The push above the 0.5700 round number was rejected again as USD stayed firm into the Fed, and price slipped back to the 50% fib near 0.5692. Late in the Asia session, before the London open, price is holding a 0.5690 pullback low but is capped by the 0.5696 bounce high, with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 0.5690, 0.5680
Resistance: 0.5696, 0.5700, 0.57045
What it said to watch
Break below the 0.5690 pullback low exposes the 61.8% fib of the Asia rally at 0.5689, then the asia base at 0.5680
M15 close above the 0.5696 bounce high and the 0.5700 round number reopens the 0.5705 session high
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) could shift this read; RBNZ decision in ~18h
False break above 0.5700 retraced to 61.8%, higher low holding.
Asia lifted NZDUSD from the 0.5680 asian low to a 0.5705 asian high, but closes above the 0.5700 round number did not hold. That is another stall at the cap as USD stays firm into Wednesday's RBNZ and Fed. The pullback set a higher low at 0.5690, near the 61.8% fib of the Asia move, and price is coiling at 0.5694 under EMA20 ahead of the London open.
Support: 0.5690, 0.56868, 0.56798
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.57045, 0.5710
What it said to watch
Close back above the 0.5700 round number and 0.57045 asian high re-opens the 0.5710 month high
Break below the 0.5690 higher low exposes the 0.5687 swing low, then the 0.5680 asian low
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could shift USD tone during NY hours
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC, then the Fed, likely dominate beyond this session
06:17 UTC
Asia rally faded, pulling back inside range · RSI 54 · price 0.56931
Lower highs off 0.5704 Asian high, 0.5690 swing low holding.
Late Asia session: the rally from the 0.5680 Asian low briefly cleared the 0.5700 round number to a 0.5704 Asian high, then dropped back below it in a false break, another failure at that cap as USD stays firm into the FOMC. The pullback found a swing low at 0.5690 near the 61.8% fib. Price is now making lower highs below EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral at 54.
Support: 0.56898, 0.56868, 0.56798
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.57045
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5700 round number and the 0.5704 Asian high would negate the false break read
Loss of the 0.5690 swing low and the 0.5687 higher low exposes the 0.5680 Asian low
Break above the lower-highs line from the Asian high would mark the end of the pullback
London open in under 2h is the first test of the Asian range
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC; RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC can materially shift this read
The Asia session lifted NZDUSD from the 0.5680 asian low to a 0.5705 asian high, but price failed to hold above the 0.5700 psych level again. With USD firm into FOMC, it retraced to a 0.5690 pullback low, near 61.8% of the Asia leg, and is bouncing modestly into London open. RSI(14) is neutral near 47 and price sits just under EMA20.
Support: 0.5690, 0.5680
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.57045
What it said to watch
M15 closes back above 0.5700 psych and the 0.5705 asian high would negate the false break
Failure to hold the 0.5690 pullback low exposes the 0.5680 asian low
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC could shift the USD side of the read
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC (~19h) is the main event risk for this structure
Asia higher-low chain broken; retracing to 61.8% fib.
Asia lifted NZDUSD from the 0.5680 asia base to a 0.5704 session high. The push above the 0.5700 round number failed again, and price has since unwound to the 61.8% fib near 0.5690 as USD stays firm pre-Fed. The Asia uptrend line is broken, and price sits below EMA20 and on EMA50 with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 0.5690, 0.56868, 0.5680
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.57045
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5687 higher low turns the Asia structure into a lower-low sequence back toward the 0.5680 asia base
Reclaim of the 0.5700 round number reopens the 0.5704 session high
London open and US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC can stretch ranges well beyond the ~3-pip ATR
RBNZ decision ~19h out (01:00 UTC Wed) could materially shift this read
05:32 UTC
Intraday pullback after a failed push above 0.5700 · RSI 40 · price 0.56905
Asia leg rejected at 0.57045, retraced to the 61.8% zone.
The Asia leg off the 0.5680 asian base cleared the 0.5700 psych level and topped at the 0.57045 asia high at 03:45 UTC. It could not hold above the figure, a fifth failed close-out above 0.5700 as USD stays firm into the FOMC. Price has slid back to the 61.8% retracement of that leg near the 0.5690 swing low, RSI(14) around 40, with London yet to open.
Support: 0.56898, 0.56868, 0.5680
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.57045
What it said to watch
Hold of the 0.5690 swing low / 61.8% keeps this a retracement; a break exposes the 0.5687 tokyo low and the 0.5680 asian base
Recovery above 0.5700 psych and the 0.57045 asia high would negate the false-break read
London open, then US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC, could extend the session range
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC is the main event risk for this range
Lower low below the 0.5693 higher low after rejection at the session high.
The Asia session lifted NZDUSD from the 0.5679 asian low through the 0.5700 round number to a 0.5705 session high. Price was rejected there and has slid back to the 50% retracement of the Asian advance near 0.5692. Price sits on EMA50, RSI(14) is near 40, and the 0.5700 cap has held again as USD stays firm into the Fed and RBNZ.
Support: 0.56868, 0.5679, 0.56696
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.57045
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.5687 swing low (61.8% of the Asian advance) breaks the Asia trendline and exposes the 0.5679 asian low.
Monday's 0.5670 day low marks the bottom of the 24h range if the Asian low gives way.
A reclaim of the 0.5700 round number reopens the 0.5705 session high; another failure there would be a fifth session capped.
London open in ~2h, plus US durable goods at 12:30 UTC and consumer confidence at 14:00 UTC, could reset the session range.
The RBNZ decision at 01:00 UTC Wed (~20h) dominates positioning; pre-event pricing may keep the 0.5680–0.5705 band intact.
False break above 0.5700, Asian higher-low trendline broken.
Asia lifted NZDUSD from the 0.5680 Asian base to a 0.57045 Asia high, briefly clearing yesterday's 0.5702 top. It was rejected back below the 0.5700 round number for a fifth session as USD stays bid into the Fed. Price has now broken the Asian higher-low trendline and sits on the EMA50 near 0.5690, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the overnight leg.
Support: 0.56868, 0.5680, 0.56696
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.57045
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.5687 higher low breaks the Asian HL chain and exposes the 0.5680 asian base, then the 0.5670 NY low
Reclaim of the 0.5700 round number undoes the false-break read; 0.57045 asia high is the cap above
US durable goods at 12:30 UTC, then consumer confidence and new home sales at 14:00 UTC, are the session's USD catalysts
RBNZ decision Oct 28 01:00 UTC (~20h away), with a hike ~90% priced, may keep London/NY ranges compressed
Asian higher lows intact, false break above 0.5700.
The Asia session rallied off the 0.5680 asian low to a 0.57045 session high, but the move above the 0.5700 psych handle failed. The 04:30 bar dropped 5 pips back to the 38.2% retrace near 0.5695, extending the multi-session stall the digest flags as USD firms into Wednesday's RBNZ and Fed. Price now sits just above the 0.5693 higher low, with RSI(14) back at the midline.
Support: 0.5693, 0.5687, 0.5680
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.57045
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5693 higher low breaks the Asian HH/HL chain and exposes the 0.5687 swing low near the 61.8% retrace
Acceptance back above the 0.5700 psych and the 0.57045 session high would negate the false-break read
Loss of the 0.5680 asian low reopens Monday's 0.5670 NY-session low
US durable goods at 12:30 UTC; RBNZ decision ~20h out (Oct 28 01:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the NY low; Asian high rejected just above 0.5700.
Late in the Asia session, NZD/USD has extended the rebound from yesterday's 0.56696 NY low. Price briefly cleared the 0.5700 handle to an Asian high of 0.57045 before slipping back onto it, and that handle has capped the pair for four sessions. The higher-low chain at the 0.56868 Asia pivot and the 0.5693 higher low is intact, with RSI(14) cooling near 58 as USD stays firm ahead of this week's RBNZ and Fed decisions.
Support: 0.5693, 0.56868, 0.56696
Resistance: 0.57045, 0.5710
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5693 higher low breaks the Asia HL chain and exposes the 0.56868 asia pivot
Loss of 0.56868 opens a return toward the 0.56696 ny low
M15 close above the 0.57045 asian high opens the 0.5710 1m high
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could shift the USD leg during NY hours
RBNZ decision in ~20h could materially shift this read
04:17 UTC
Uptrend, higher lows through Asia · RSI 63 · price 0.57026
HH/HL chain off 0.5680, holding just above 0.5700.
After yesterday's USD-driven NY low near 0.5670, the Asia session built a clean higher-low chain from the 0.5680 Asia low and pushed through the 0.5700 round number that capped the last four sessions. Price is holding just under the 0.57045 session high, with the 0.5693 swing low and the rising trendline as the nearest structure underneath. RSI(14) near 63 is not stretched.
Support: 0.5700, 0.5693, 0.56798
Resistance: 0.57045, 0.5710
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5700 round number would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 0.5693 swing low and the rising trendline ends the Asia HH/HL chain
0.5710 month high is the next upside gate above the 0.57045 session high
Fib 50% retracement of the Asia move sits near 0.5692, close to the swing low
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC could reset the USD tone
RBNZ decision in ~21h could materially shift this read
04:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows through Asia · RSI 64 · price 0.57035
HH/HL chain off Monday's NY low; first push above 0.5700.
Asia session has climbed from Monday's NY low at 0.5670, where USD buying ahead of the Fed bottomed out, to a 0.57045 session high. Price is now above the 0.5700 round number that capped four sessions, with higher lows at the 0.56868 Asia HL and 0.5693 swing low riding a rising trendline. RSI(14) at 64 is firm but not stretched.
Support: 0.5700, 0.5693, 0.56868
Resistance: 0.57045, 0.5710
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 0.5700 round number would turn the push into a false break
A break of the 0.5693 swing low and the rising trendline ends the higher-low chain
0.5710 1m high is the next cap above the 0.57045 session high
RBNZ decision in ~21h and US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC could reset this read
The Asia session recovered all of Monday's slide from the 0.5670 NY low and pushed back through the 0.5700 psych handle. That level had capped price for four sessions. Higher lows at the 0.5687 swing low and the 0.5693 higher low carried price to a 0.5704 session high, with RSI(14) at 65 and room left before the 1m high at 0.5710.
Support: 0.5700, 0.5693, 0.56868
Resistance: 0.57044, 0.5710
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5700 psych handle turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 0.5693 higher low breaks the Asia HH/HL chain and exposes the 0.5687 swing low
Rejection at the session high or the 0.5710 1m high would keep the multi-session ceiling intact
US durable goods later today and positioning into the RBNZ decision (~21h) could shift this read
Asia higher-low chain pressing a twice-rejected 0.5701 session high.
Asia session has retraced Monday's pre-Fed USD-bid slide from the 0.5670 monday low. Higher lows at 0.5680, 0.5687 and 0.5693 sit on a rising trendline, and the 0.5693 swing low held at the 38.2% of the Asia leg. Price is back at the 0.5700 handle after two rejections at the 0.5701 session high; the digest flags 0.5700 as capped for four sessions ahead of RBNZ.
Support: 0.5693, 0.56868, 0.56696
Resistance: 0.57013, 0.5710
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.5701 session high breaks the four-session 0.5700 cap and opens the 0.5710 1m high
Loss of the 0.5693 swing low and rising trendline breaks the Asia higher-low chain, exposing the 0.5687 higher low
Below the 0.5687 higher low, the 0.5670 monday low comes back into range
US durable goods and Consumer Confidence in NY hours could shift this read; RBNZ (Oct 28, 01:00 UTC, ~21h) may keep 0.5700 capped into the event
Higher lows off the 0.5670 NY low, capped at the 0.5701 session high.
The Asia session lifted price from the 0.5680 rollover area to a 0.5701 session high. It was rejected at the 0.5700 psych handle, which has capped NZD for four sessions as USD stays firm into FOMC. Higher lows at 0.5687 and the 0.5693 swing low keep rising support off yesterday's 0.5670 NY low intact.
Support: 0.5693, 0.56868, 0.56696
Resistance: 0.57013, 0.57035
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5701 session high and the 0.5704 prior high would break the four-session 0.5700 cap
Loss of the 0.5693 swing low and rising support exposes the 0.5687 higher low near the 38.2% fib
Failure below 0.5687 reopens the 0.5670 NY low
London open in ~4h could extend or break the Asian range
RBNZ decision Oct 28 01:00 UTC (~22h) could materially shift this read
03:04 UTC
Asian recovery stalling under 0.5700 · RSI 54 · price 0.56941
Asian higher lows from 0.5680; double rejection at 0.5701, pullback on rising lows.
Asia climbed about 20 pips off the 0.5680 asian base after Monday's pre-Fed USD bid drove a 0.5670 low. The 0.5701 session high was rejected twice in late Asia, still below the 0.5705 prior high and the 0.5700 handle capped for four sessions. Price is now holding the fib 38.2 at 0.5693, which coincides with the asian trendline, and RSI(14) has cooled to about 54.
Support: 0.5693, 0.56868, 0.5680
Resistance: 0.57013, 0.57048
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.5701 session high and the 0.5705 prior high would break the four-session cap at 0.5700
Failure to hold the fib 38.2 at 0.5693 and the asian trendline exposes the 0.5687 swing low, then the 0.5680 asian base
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and the RBNZ decision Wednesday at 01:00 UTC could materially shift this read
02:47 UTC
Asia uptrend from 0.5680, stalling at 0.5700 · RSI 64 · price 0.56965
Higher-low chain through Asia, capped by 0.5700 handle.
Late Asia session: NZD has erased Monday's pre-Fed USD-driven slide, building higher lows off 0.5680 along the Asia trendline. The 0.5700 handle was retested and rejected at the 0.5701 Asia high, a fifth straight stall there. Price is holding just above the 0.5693 minor low with RSI(14) near 64 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 0.56932, 0.56868, 0.56696
Resistance: 0.57013, 0.57048, 0.5710
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5701 Asia high and the 0.5705 prior high breaks the 0.5700 cap; the 0.5710 1m high is the next reference
Break of the 0.5693 minor low and the Asia trendline ends the higher-low chain, putting the 0.5687 swing low (61.8% fib) in focus
Loss of 0.5687 reopens the 0.5680 base and yesterday's 0.5670 day low, where Monday's NY selloff ended
London open in ~4h: Monday's London session sold off from 0.5700, so a repeat would test the Asian range
RBNZ decision in ~22h, then the FOMC: pre-event positioning and USD demand can override intraday structure
02:32 UTC
Uptrend in Asia, pressing the 0.5700 cap · RSI 68 · price 0.56997
Higher highs and higher lows off the 0.5680 Asia base, testing session high.
The Asia session has retraced about 85% of Monday's decline from 0.5705 to 0.5670 in a clean higher-high, higher-low chain off the 0.5680 Asia base, and is now testing the 0.5700 handle. That handle has capped NZD for four sessions while USD firms into the Fed. The session high at 0.57013 is the test, with RSI(14) near 68. The 0.56707 rollover spike was a thin-liquidity print, not structure.
Support: 0.56954, 0.56868, 0.5680
Resistance: 0.57013, 0.57048, 0.5710
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.57048 prior high breaks the four-session 0.5700 cap and opens the 0.5710 1m high
Failure to hold the 0.56954 higher low stalls the Asia uptrend below session high
Break of the trendline support and the 0.56868 swing low ends the HH/HL chain and puts the 0.5680 asia base back in focus
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC in the NY session; RBNZ decision ~22h out keeps 0.5700 a contested handle
Asia session HH/HL chain off 0.5680, rejection wick at the 0.5700 handle.
After Monday's pre-Fed USD bid set a NY monday low at 0.5670, the Asia session has built higher lows off 0.5680 along the asia HL line. The latest bar wicked to 0.5701 and closed back under the 0.5700 psych handle, a level that has capped NZD for four sessions per the digest. RSI(14) is near 68, the 0.5693 swing low sits at the 38.2% of the asia rally fib and the 0.5687 higher low is near the 61.8%.
Support: 0.56932, 0.56868, 0.56696
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.5705, 0.5710
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5705 prior high negates the 0.5700 rejection and exposes the 0.5710 1-month high
Break of the 0.5693 swing low and the asia HL line near 0.5690 ends the HH/HL chain, with the 0.5687 higher low next
Loss of the 0.5680 Asian base reopens the 0.5670 monday low
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC, and the RBNZ decision in ~23h, could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain off 0.5680 Asian low, testing 0.5700 cap.
Asia session has retraced all of Monday's USD-driven slide from 0.5700 to the 0.5670 NY low. A higher-high/higher-low chain from the 0.5680 Asian low has lifted price to 0.5699, just under the 0.5700 psych cap that held for four sessions, with RSI(14) near 70 and the latest higher low at 0.5693.
Support: 0.5693, 0.5687, 0.5680
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.5705, 0.5710
What it said to watch
An M15 close above 0.5700 psych opens the 0.5705 prior high and the 0.5710 1m high.
A rejection at 0.5700 and a break of the 0.5693 higher low and the Asia trendline put the 38.2% fib at 0.5687 in play.
Losing the 0.5680 asian low erases the Asia rebound.
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC, then the RBNZ decision in ~23h, could materially shift this read.
01:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the NY low, momentum firm · RSI 66 · price 0.56954
Higher lows through Asia, pressing the 0.5700 cap.
Asia has retraced Monday's USD-led slide. Price climbed from the 0.5670 NY low to 0.5699 on higher lows, with the 0.5687 swing low holding at the 38.2% fib, and RSI(14) sits near 66. It is now testing the 0.5700 round number that has capped for four sessions. The 0.5671 rollover print was a thin-liquidity wick, not structure.
Support: 0.56868, 0.56798, 0.56696
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.57048
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5700 round number exposes the 0.5705 prior high
Rejection at 0.5700 plus a break of the Asia trendline and 0.5687 swing low turns the climb into a lower high
Loss of the 0.5680 asia low reopens the 0.5670 ny low
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could shift USD demand ahead of RBNZ (Oct 28, 01:00 UTC)
Asia HH/HL leg from 0.5680 rejected at 0.5695, pulling back into fib 50%.
Monday's NY low at 0.5670 came on pre-Fed USD buying. Price has since recovered, and the Asia rally lifted the pair from the 0.5680 asian base to the 0.5695 asia high. The 01:00 UTC bar rejected that high and slipped back to the fib 50% at 0.5687, leaving the 0.5700 psych handle untested. RSI(14) has cooled to ~53 and ATR(14) is ~3.4 pips.
Support: 0.5687, 0.5680, 0.5670
Resistance: 0.5695, 0.5700, 0.5705
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.5695 asia high reopens 0.5700 psych and the 0.5705 monday high
Failure to hold the fib 50% at 0.5687 and then the 0.5680 asian base would return focus to the 0.5670 ny low
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and the RBNZ decision in ~24h could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from 0.5670; Asia pushed above NY high, testing 61.8% below 0.5700.
Monday's London-NY slide from the 0.5705 prior high bottomed at 0.5670 (monday low) as USD was bought ahead of the Fed. Price has since built rising lows. Asia session lifted through the 0.5691 NY high to a 0.5695 session high at the 61.8% retrace, with the 0.5700 cap overhead.
Support: 0.56913, 0.56798, 0.56696
Resistance: 0.56947, 0.5700, 0.57055
What it said to watch
Holding the 0.5691 ny high on pullbacks keeps the HH/HL chain intact; a close back below it signals a false break
A close above the 0.5695 session high exposes the 0.5700 cap and the 0.5705 prior high
Loss of the rising lows line and the 0.5680 asian low reopens the 0.5670 monday low
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and the RBNZ decision Oct 28 01:00 UTC could materially shift this read
00:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the 0.5680 base, testing 0.5700 · RSI 68 · price 0.56944
Higher lows through Asia, Monday's NY high broken, price under the 0.5700 cap.
Early Asia lifted NZDUSD about 15 pips from the 0.5680 late NY base and through Monday's NY high at 0.5691. That partly unwinds the pre-Fed USD bid that drove Monday's slide to the 0.5670 low. Price now sits just under the 0.5700 round number that has capped four sessions, with RSI(14) near 68, firm but not stretched, and ATR(14) around 3.6 pips.
Support: 0.56913, 0.5680, 0.56696
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.57055, 0.5710
What it said to watch
Close back below the 0.5691 NY high would put the breakout back inside Monday's range
Acceptance above the 0.5700 round number exposes the 0.5705 prior high (Monday Asia high) and the 0.5710 1m high
Break of the Asia trendline and the 0.5680 late NY base reopens the 0.5670 Monday low
US Durables at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
RBNZ decision is about 24h out and may cap moves through 0.5700 until then
00:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the Asian low, momentum firm · RSI 67 · price 0.56923
HH/HL chain through Asia, pressing 61.8% retrace of Monday's drop.
The Asia session has built a HH/HL chain off the 0.5680 asian low. Price has cleared Monday's NY rebound high and is pressing the 0.5693 asia high, which sits at the 61.8% retrace of Monday's drop. RSI(14) is near 67, firm but not stretched. Monday's USD bid ahead of the Fed drove the slide to the 0.5670 monday low, and the 0.5700 psych handle has capped for four sessions.
Support: 0.56864, 0.56798, 0.56696
Resistance: 0.56927, 0.5700, 0.57055
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.5693 asia high and the 61.8% retrace opens the 0.5700 psych handle, with the prior high at 0.5706 just beyond
A break of the 0.5686 pullback low and the asia trendline would end the HH/HL chain and expose the asian low at 0.5680
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could shift the USD leg. The RBNZ decision ~24h out keeps 0.5700 a heavy cap
00:17 UTC
Intraday recovery from the NY low, stalling at resistance · RSI 64 · price 0.56892
Higher lows off 0.5670, capped at the 0.5691 ny high.
Pre-Fed USD buying broke Monday's Asian low at 0.5697 and drove a London-NY slide to a 0.5670 day low. The NY recovery held the 50% fib near 0.5680 into the close, ignoring the thin rollover spike. Early Asia is now retesting the 0.5691 ny high, which rejected the first push, with RSI(14) near 63 and ATR(14) around 3.5 pips.
Support: 0.5680, 0.5670
Resistance: 0.5691, 0.5697, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5692 clears the ny high and opens the 0.5697 asian low and 0.5700 psych
Rejection at 0.5691 and loss of the 50% fib at 0.5680 puts the 0.5670 day low back in play
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could shift USD tone ahead of RBNZ (Oct 28 01:00 UTC)
00:03 UTC
London-led decline, now basing in a range · RSI 60 · price 0.5687
Lower high at 0.5691 under the 0.5705 Asian high; NY low 0.5670 holding.
London broke below Monday's Asian range and extended to a 0.5670 NY low as USD buying built ahead of Wednesday's Fed. The NY rebound stalled at 0.5691, and a rollover spike to 0.5671 held above the NY low. Early Asia has lifted price off the 0.5680 late NY base to the 50% retracement near 0.5688, with the 0.5700 round number still capping.
Support: 0.5680, 0.5670
Resistance: 0.5691, 0.5700, 0.5705
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5691 NY high opens a retest of the 0.5700 round number and the 0.5705 Asian high
Loss of the 0.5680 late NY base puts the 0.5670 NY low back in play
ATR is inflated by the rollover spike; Asia ranges are likely tighter than 3 pips
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC (~25h) and US Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read