NZD/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Monday, 26 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the NZD/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:47 UTC
Intraday recovery off day low, pressing resistance · RSI 62 · price 0.56873
Higher low at 0.5680 after NY rally from 0.5670; testing NY high 0.5691.
Early Asia session is lifting off the 0.5680 late-NY low and now presses the 0.5691 NY high. The pullback from that high held near the 50% of the NY rally fib, and the rollover false break toward 0.5671 reversed at once. Monday's pre-FOMC USD bid drove London and NY down to the 0.5670 day low, with the 0.5700 round number and the 0.5706 Asia high capping above.
Support: 0.5680, 0.5670
Resistance: 0.5691, 0.5700, 0.5706
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5691 NY high opens the 0.5700 round number and the 0.5706 Asia high
Failure back below the 0.5680 late-NY low undoes the higher low and exposes the 0.5670 day low
RBNZ decision Oct 28 01:00 UTC (~25h): a hike is ~90% priced, so 0.5700 has capped for four sessions
Lower highs from the 0.5705 Asia high; 0.5670–0.5691 range since NY.
NZD slid through London and NY as USD was bought into the FOMC. The pair set a 0.5670 day low, and the rebound stalled at the 0.5691 NY high, under the 0.5700 cap. Early Asia is holding the 0.5680 NY base, near the 50% fib of the NY swing, after a thin rollover spike to 0.5671 was rejected, and price is now pressing the lower highs line from the 0.5705 Asia high.
Support: 0.5680, 0.56696
Resistance: 0.56913, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5691 NY high breaks the lower highs line and exposes the 0.5700 cap
Failure to hold the 0.5680 NY base puts the 0.5670 day low back in play
RBNZ decision Oct 28 01:00 UTC (~26h, hike ~90% priced) and Tuesday's US Durable Goods/Consumer Confidence could materially shift this read
23:18 UTC
Intraday downtrend, flattening in early Asia · RSI 47 · price 0.56814
Lower highs off 0.5691 NY high; tight 0.5679–0.5683 box after rollover.
Monday's London-NY slide from the 0.5705 Asian high bottomed at the 0.5670 NY low. The rebound stalled at the 0.5691 NY high, and the fade since has held near the 50% retrace. Early Asia is boxed 0.5679–0.5683 after a thin rollover wick to 0.5671 was reclaimed, with RSI(14) near 47 and price pinned to a flat EMA20 as pre-FOMC USD demand keeps NZD below the 0.5700 round number.
Support: 0.5679, 0.5670
Resistance: 0.5683, 0.5691, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5683 session high and the lower highs line breaks the post-close fade
Failure to hold the 0.5679 session low reopens the 0.5670 NY low
0.5691 NY high and the 0.5700 round number remain the caps from Monday
RBNZ decision Oct 28 01:00 UTC (~26h) and US Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
23:04 UTC
Intraday downtrend, flattening into early Asia · RSI 46 · price 0.56818
Lower highs off 0.5691, compressing above 0.5680.
Monday's Asian range topped near the 0.5700 psych level, then London broke the Asian low and NY extended to a 0.5670 ny low as USD was bid on pre-FOMC short-covering. The bounce stalled at the 0.5691 rebound high, and lower highs since have pressed price onto the 50% fib at 0.5680, where a thin rollover wick to 0.5671 was reclaimed in early Asia; price is now flat on EMA20.
Support: 0.5680, 0.5670
Resistance: 0.5691, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 50% fib at 0.5680 exposes the 0.5670 ny low
Break of the lower-highs line and a close above the 0.5691 rebound high reopens the 0.5700 psych level
RBNZ decision Oct 28 01:00 UTC (~26h) and FOMC later Wednesday could materially shift this read; positioning into both may keep Asian ranges tight
Lower high at 0.5691 after NY-open low; holding just above 0.5680.
Pre-FOMC USD short-covering broke the Asian range in London. The pair bottomed at the 0.5670 day low at NY open, and the rebound stalled at the 0.5691 NY high, a lower high that retraced the full NY move back to psych 0.5680. A thin rollover spike to 0.5671 was quickly rejected, and early Asia is now compressing around 0.5682 with ATR down near 3 pips.
Support: 0.5680, 0.5670
Resistance: 0.5691, 0.57055
What it said to watch
M15 close below psych 0.5680 re-exposes the 0.5670 day low
Reclaim of the 0.5691 NY high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the path to the 0.5705 Asia high
Fib 61.8% of the NY rally at 0.5678 already pierced on the rollover spike; a sustained close below it weakens the rebound read
RBNZ decision Oct 28 01:00 UTC (about 26h) could materially shift this read
Lower high at 0.5691 under the Asian range, holding the 0.5680 NY base.
London broke below the Asian low at 0.5695 as the USD firmed on pre-FOMC short-covering, and the NY open printed the day low at 0.5670 before a recovery capped at the NY high of 0.5691. The late-NY fade has stalled on the 0.5680 NY base, near the 50% level of the NY rally fib. The thin rollover spike to 0.5671 was rejected straight back, and early Asia is flat around 0.5682.
Support: 0.5680, 0.5670
Resistance: 0.5691, 0.5695
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5680 NY base exposes the 0.5670 day low
Recovery through the 0.5691 NY high puts the 0.5695 Asian low and 0.5700 back in play
US Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC, then RBNZ (Oct 28 01:00 UTC, ~27h); either could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower, NY rebound capped below London high.
London broke the Asian range low near 0.5695 and NY extended to a 0.5670 day low. The NY rebound stalled at the 0.5691 NY high, in line with the London high, and has faded back to the 0.5680 50% fib as pre-FOMC USD short-covering kept the pair heavy. A rollover spike to 0.5671 snapped back quickly as the new Asia session opens.
Support: 0.5680, 0.5670
Resistance: 0.56863, 0.5691, 0.5700
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.5680 50% fib exposes the 0.5670 day low; failure there confirms a lower-low
Reclaim of the 0.5686 late high and the 0.5691 NY high reopens the 0.5700 psych level
RBNZ decision Oct 28 01:00 UTC (~27h) could materially shift this read as Asia positions into it
Lower high under Asian range, testing late-NY base.
London broke the 0.5695–0.5707 Asian range lower and extended to a 0.5670 session low in early NY. The NY rebound stalled at the 0.5691 NY high, a lower high below the 0.5700 round number as USD short-covering outweighed RBNZ hike bets. Price has faded back to the 0.5680 late-NY base near the 61.8% of the NY rebound fib, and a thin rollover wick to 0.5671 retested the session low before being bought back.
Support: 0.5680, 0.5670
Resistance: 0.5691, 0.5700
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.5670 session low confirms a lower-low and extends the downtrend
A close back above the fade line and the 0.5691 NY high returns focus to the 0.5700 round number
Rollover-hour spreads distort wicks; the rollover wick reading needs confirmation once Asia session liquidity returns
RBNZ decision in ~27h (hike to 3.00% priced) and US Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Asia; NY bounce retraced to 50% fib.
London broke below the Asian range, and NY extended the drop to the 0.5670 NY low before a rebound was rejected at the 0.5691 NY high, under the 0.5700 cap. A 0.5686 lower high followed as NZD slipped despite firming RBNZ hike bets. Price is now compressing near 0.5680 at the 50% fib in thin post-NY trade, with the 61.8% fib at 0.5678 just below.
Support: 0.56779, 0.56696
Resistance: 0.56863, 0.56913, 0.57069
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 61.8% fib at 0.5678 reopens the 0.5670 NY low
A close above the 0.5686 lower high would put the 0.5691 NY high back in play; 0.5707 asian high caps above
Tue 12:30 UTC US Durable Goods (~15h) and RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC (~27h) could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower; lower high at 0.5691, now testing 61.8% retrace.
London broke the 0.5695–0.5707 Asian range lower and the slide ran to the 0.5670 day low at the NY open as USD firmed on pre-Fed short-covering. The NY rebound met rejection at the 0.5691 rebound high, and late-session drift has price back at 0.5680, the 61.8% fib and london low confluence, with ATR(14) contracting into the thin Asia handover.
Support: 0.5679, 0.5670
Resistance: 0.5686, 0.5691, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5678 london low and 61.8% fib confirms the rebound failure and puts the 0.5670 day low back in play
Reclaim of the 0.5686 lower high and 0.5691 rebound high would neutralise the lower-high sequence, with 0.5700 psych above
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC (~28h) could materially shift this read; positioning into it may keep Asia ranges narrow
21:18 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower high in place · RSI 39 · price 0.5680
Asian range broken lower; NY rebound capped at 0.5691, drifting mid-range.
London broke the Asian low at 0.5695 and NY extended to a day low at 0.5670. The rebound stalled at the 0.5691 NY high, a lower high under the broken Asian range, as NZD failed to hold 0.5700 despite firmer RBNZ hike bets and USD stayed firm into the Fed. Post-NY drift has price back at 0.5680, near the 50% fib of the NY rebound and just above the 0.5678 London low, with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 0.5678, 0.5670
Resistance: 0.5691, 0.5695, 0.5707
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5678 london low exposes the 0.5670 day low.
An M15 close above the 0.5691 ny high and the 0.5695 asian low would negate the lower-high read.
The 0.5707 asian high sits inside the 0.5700/0.5710 cap.
US Durable Goods is due Tue 12:30 UTC; the RBNZ decision (~28h away) is the larger risk to this structure.
Lower highs off 0.5691, holding 50% of the NY rebound.
London broke the asian low at 0.5695 and early NY extended to a 0.5670 day low. The rebound stalled at the 0.5691 ny high, and price has faded through a lower high at 0.5686 to sit on the 50% retrace near 0.5680 into the NY close. The kiwi is soft against a USD firming on pre-Fed short-covering, with the RBNZ hike largely priced.
Support: 0.5678, 0.56696
Resistance: 0.56863, 0.56913, 0.56953
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5678 london low (61.8% retrace) reopens the 0.5670 day low
Close above the 0.5686 lower high negates the fade from the 0.5691 ny high
Recovery through the 0.5695 asian low puts the 0.5700 cap back in play
Thin Asia session open; RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC (~28h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Asia; NY rebound off day low retracing.
NZD slid from the Asian range (asia high 0.5707) through London to a 0.5670 day low early in NY hours. The rebound was rejected at 0.5691, just under the London lower high near 0.5692, consistent with the soft-kiwi digest under 0.5700. Late NY is drifting at the 50% fib of that rebound near 0.5680, with RSI(14) ~36 and ATR(14) ~2.4 pips as the session thins.
Support: 0.5680, 0.5678, 0.5670
Resistance: 0.5686, 0.5691, 0.5707
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 61.8% fib at 0.5678 exposes the 0.5670 day low
Close above the 0.5686 lower high reopens the 0.5691 rebound high and negates the fade
Tue 12:30 UTC US Durable Goods could shift the USD leg
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC (~28h) could materially shift this read
London break below Asian range, NY low 0.5670, lower high at 0.5691.
London broke below the Asian range (asian low 0.5695, asian high 0.5707) and the selling ran to a 0.5670 session low early in NY. The rebound stalled at the 0.5691 ny high, under the old Asian low, and price has faded to the 50% fib of that rebound near 0.5680 into the late-session lull. Kiwi is softening despite firming RBNZ hike bets, with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 0.5678, 0.56696
Resistance: 0.56913, 0.56953, 0.57069
What it said to watch
Break of the 0.5678 london low and 61.8% fib exposes the 0.5670 session low
Close above the ny fade trendline and the 0.5691 ny high puts the 0.5695 asian low back in play
Lower highs below Asia high; rebound capped at 0.5691.
NZD slid from the 0.5707 Asia high through London to a 0.5670 NY low despite firming RBNZ hike calls, which fits the 'priced-in' read. The NY rebound stalled at 0.5691, below the 0.5692 London swing, and late-NY trade has faded to the 0.5680 round number, the 50% retrace of that rebound, with a fresh lower high at 0.5686.
Support: 0.5680, 0.5670
Resistance: 0.5686, 0.5691, 0.5707
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5680 round number exposes the 61.8% of the NY rebound near 0.5678 and then the 0.5670 NY low
A close above the 0.5686 lower high and then the 0.5691 rebound high would break the lower-high sequence
Asia session opening now on thin liquidity; Asia high 0.5707 sits just above the 0.5700/0.5710 cap
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC (~29h) could materially shift this read, with positioning already leaning toward a hike
Lower high at 0.5691 after London broke the Asian range; pullback testing bounce midpoint.
London broke below the 0.5694 Asian range low and NY extended the slide to a 0.5670 session low. The bounce was rejected at 0.5691, a lower high under the 0.5700 round number. Price has faded in late NY back toward the 50% fib near 0.5680, below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 45, as NZD stays capped into the RBNZ decision and USD firms pre-Fed.
Support: 0.5680, 0.5678, 0.5670
Resistance: 0.5685, 0.5691, 0.5700
What it said to watch
A close below the 50% fib at 0.5680 and the 61.8% fib at 0.5678 exposes the 0.5670 session low.
A close back above the ema20 near 0.5685, then the 0.5691 lower high, would neutralise the lower-high read and open the 0.5700 round number.
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC; US durable goods Tue 12:30 UTC. Either could shift this read.
Asian range broken lower; 0.5691 lower high, 0.5682 higher low under test.
London sold NZDUSD out of the 0.5695–0.5707 Asian range, and the move ran to a 0.5670 NY low in the first hour of NY. The rebound was rejected at 0.5691 (NY high), below the Asian low. Price now sits on the 0.5682 pullback low near the 38.2% retrace, with RSI(14) flat at 50, as a firmer pre-Fed USD and a largely priced RBNZ hike keep the kiwi capped.
Support: 0.56822, 0.5678, 0.56696
Resistance: 0.56913, 0.56953, 0.57069
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.5682 pullback low breaks the rising line and puts the 0.5678 swing low and 0.5670 NY low back in play
Close above the 0.5691 NY high reopens the 0.5695 Asian low; reclaiming the 0.5707 Asian high would negate the lower-high read
Asia session open could set a new range ahead of Wednesday's RBNZ decision (~29h)
US durable goods Tue 12:30 UTC could move USD before the Fed
Asian range broken lower, NY bounce capped at 0.5691, fading late NY.
Sellers capped the Asian high at 0.5707. London broke the Asian low near 0.5695, and NY extended the drop to 0.5670 as USD firmed into the Fed and RBNZ week. The NY bounce stalled at the 0.5691 intraday cap, just shy of the 61.8% retrace of the Asia-NY drop, printing another lower high, and price is back at the 0.5682 swing low late in NY.
Support: 0.5682, 0.5670
Resistance: 0.5691, 0.5695, 0.5707
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5682 swing low exposes the 0.5670 NY low
Recovery through the 0.5691 intraday cap breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 0.5695 Asian low, with the 0.5707 Asian high above
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC (~31h) and US Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs below 0.5692 after London broke the Asian range low; NY low at 0.5670.
London broke below the Asian range near 0.5695 and NY extended to the 0.5670 NY low. The rebound was rejected at 0.5691, a lower high just under the London bounce, and late NY has retraced about 40% of that move to 0.5683. USD firmness ahead of the FOMC, with RBNZ hike pricing largely in, keeps the kiwi capped below the 0.5700 round number.
Support: 0.5678, 0.5670
Resistance: 0.5691, 0.5700
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5678 swing low (61.8% fib) exposes the 0.5670 NY low
M15 close back above the 0.5691 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and brings the 0.5700 round number into view
Thin post-NY trade into Asia session; US Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC and RBNZ Wed 01:00 UTC are the next catalysts
Asian range broken lower; NY rebound capped at 61.8% retracement.
London broke the 0.5695 Asian low and NY extended to a 0.5670 session low as NZD softened into Wednesday's RBNZ. The 22-pip rebound stalled twice at 0.5691–0.5692, the London pivot and 61.8% fib. Price is back at the 50% level with RSI(14) cooling from the low 70s.
Support: 0.56868, 0.56838, 0.56696
Resistance: 0.5692, 0.56953, 0.57069
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5692 london pivot reopens the 0.5695 asian low and 0.5707 asian high
Failure at the 0.5687 minor low and 0.5683 38.2% fib exposes the 0.5670 session low
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC (~30h) and Tue US Durable Goods could reset this intraday structure
London broke the 0.5695 Asian low and NY extended the slide to a 0.5670 session low as NZD stayed soft into RBNZ and USD firmed pre-FOMC. Late NY has printed higher lows at 0.5678 and 0.5687, lifting price back to the 0.5692 swing high, which sits on the 61.8% retracement of the drop. RSI(14) is near 68 with ATR around 3 pips into the thin late-session tape.
Support: 0.56868, 0.5678, 0.56696
Resistance: 0.5692, 0.56953, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5692 swing high puts the 0.5695 Asian low and 0.5700 psych level back in play
Break below the 0.5687 higher low unwinds the NY recovery; the pivot low at 0.5678 is the next reference
Loss of the 0.5670 session low resumes the intraday downtrend
US Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence Tue 12:15–14:00 UTC, then RBNZ Wed 01:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
18:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, NY recovery in progress · RSI 72 · price 0.5691
Higher-low chain off the session low, testing London pivot.
London broke below the 0.5695–0.5707 Asian range and extended to a 0.5670 session low in early NY, in line with soft NZD ahead of RBNZ. Since then a steady higher-low chain on a rising trendline has lifted price back to the 0.5692 London pivot, which lines up with the 61.8% retracement of the day's drop. RSI(14) near 72 is short-term hot.
Support: 0.5687, 0.5683, 0.5670
Resistance: 0.5692, 0.5700, 0.5707
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5692 London pivot / 61.8% opens the 0.5700 round number and the Asian range floor, then the 0.5707 Asian high
Break of the rising trendline and the 0.5687 swing low exposes the 0.5683 prior base and the 0.5670 session low
RBNZ decision in ~31h; positioning into it could cap moves toward 0.5700
Higher-low chain off 0.5670 day low, capped at london high.
London broke below the 0.5695 asian low and NY extended the drop to a 0.5670 day low. Late NY has since rebuilt a higher-low chain along a rising trendline back to the 0.5692 london high, near the 61.8% of the day drop fib, with RSI(14) around 71. NZD stays capped under 0.5700 ahead of Wednesday's RBNZ as USD firms into the Fed.
Support: 0.5687, 0.5683, 0.5670
Resistance: 0.5692, 0.5695, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5692 london high opens the 0.5695 asian low and the 0.5700 round number
Break of the trendline near 0.5687 and the 0.5683 higher low would unwind the NY recovery toward the 0.5670 day low
US durable goods Tue 12:30 UTC and the RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC (~31h) could materially shift this read
17:48 UTC
Intraday downtrend, rebounding from NY low · RSI 60 · price 0.56884
Asian range broken lower at London open; higher-low chain since the 0.5670 NY low.
London open broke below the 0.5695–0.5707 Asian range, and the slide extended to a 0.5670 NY low as USD firmed on pre-Fed short-trimming. Since then a higher-low chain off the trendline has lifted price to 0.5691, stalling just under the 0.5692 swing high, which sits near the 50% retracement of the Asia high–NY low leg late in the NY session.
Support: 0.56844, 0.56777, 0.56696
Resistance: 0.5692, 0.56953, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5692 swing high puts the 0.5695 Asian low and 0.5700 psych back in play
Failure back below the 0.5684 break level and the trendline turns focus to the 0.5678 higher low
Loss of the 0.5670 NY low resumes the lower-low sequence
US durable goods Tue 12:30 UTC and RBNZ Wed 01:00 UTC could materially shift this read
17:33 UTC
Intraday downtrend, NY rebound testing lower high · RSI 64 · price 0.56901
LH/LL from Asian high; NY higher lows off 0.5670.
London broke below the 0.5695–0.5707 Asian range as USD firmed ahead of the Fed. The slide extended to a 0.5670 session low in the first hour of NY, then recovered about 21 pips. Price has cleared the 0.5686 break level and is now pressing the 0.5692 London lower high, which sits at the 61.8% retracement of the decline from the Asian high.
Support: 0.56865, 0.56835, 0.56696
Resistance: 0.5692, 0.56953, 0.57069
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5692 lower high breaks the LH chain and puts the 0.5695 asian low and 0.5700 back in play
Rejection at 0.5692 and a slip under the 0.5686 break level and NY trendline re-exposes the 0.5683 ny base
Loss of 0.5683 ny base reopens the 0.5670 session low
Asian high at 0.5707 caps the day's range above
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC, and US durable goods Tue 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Asia high; higher-low chain off NY session low.
London broke below the Asian range (0.5695 asian low to 0.5707 asian high), and NY extended to a 0.5670 session low as the USD firmed on pre-Fed short-covering. The late-NY rebound has printed a higher low at 0.5682 and is now retesting broken London lows near 0.5688, the 50% retrace of the drop. Price is holding just above the ema50 with RSI(14) around 64.
Support: 0.5686, 0.56821, 0.56696
Resistance: 0.56919, 0.56953, 0.57069
What it said to watch
Holding above the ema50 near 0.5686 keeps the rebound structure intact; a break of the 0.5682 higher low ends the chain
An M15 close above the 0.5692 london high (near 61.8% fib) brings the 0.5695 asian low back into play
A return to the 0.5670 session low reasserts the London-NY downtrend
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC (~32h) dominates NZD; Asian-session drift before it is likely thin
Asian range broken lower in London; HL chain off 0.5670 session low now testing ny pivot.
London broke the 0.5695 asian low and NY extended to a 0.5670 session low as USD short-covering built ahead of the Fed. Since then a steady higher low chain has carried price back to the 61.8% of the 0.5692 lower high to 0.5670 drop. After London close it is pressing the 0.5686 ny pivot, with the 0.5678 pre-NY low behind it.
Support: 0.56805, 0.5678, 0.56696
Resistance: 0.56864, 0.5692, 0.56953
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5686 ny pivot exposes the 0.5692 lower high, then the 0.5695 asian low
Break of the rising trendline and the 0.5680 higher low returns focus to the 0.5678 pre-ny low and the 0.5670 session low
US durable goods Tue 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled catalyst
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC (~32h) could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower in London; higher lows off the NY low, now testing the breakdown zone.
USD short-trimming ahead of the Fed knocked NZD out of the Asian range during London, and NY extended the slide to a 0.5670 session low. The late-NY rebound has built a higher-low chain along a rising trendline. Price is now at the 61.8% fib near 0.5683, just under the 0.5686 lower high.
Support: 0.56775, 0.56696
Resistance: 0.56864, 0.5692, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5686 lower high breaks the down-sequence and exposes the 0.5692 london high
Loss of the 0.5678 pullback low and the rising trendline reopens the 0.5670 session low
A reclaim of the 0.5700 psych pivot would put price back inside the Asian range
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC; repricing of hike odds ahead of it could materially shift this read
16:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, NY rebound in progress · RSI 57 · price 0.56835
Lower highs from London; higher lows off 0.5670 session low, retesting breakdown.
Selling into the London open broke the Asian range floor near 0.5695, and an early-NY leg reached a 0.5670 session low as USD shorts were trimmed ahead of the Fed and RBNZ. Price has since printed a higher low at 0.5678 and is pressing the 61.8% retrace of the 0.5692–0.5670 drop at 0.5683, just under the 0.5686 breakdown level.
Support: 0.5678, 0.5670
Resistance: 0.5686, 0.5692, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5686 breakdown level opens the 0.5692 london high, with the 0.5700 psych pivot above
Close below the 0.5678 higher low breaks the NY rebound line and exposes the 0.5670 session low
US Durable Goods (Tue 12:30 UTC) and RBNZ (Wed 01:00 UTC, ~32h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Asian range break; rebound stalling mid-leg.
The Asia push to 0.5707 faded. From London open, price broke below the Asian range in a lower-high chain (0.5692, 0.5686) down to a 0.5670 NY session low as the USD firmed into the Fed. The rebound has stalled at the 0.5682 rebound high near the 50% fib of the London-NY leg. RSI(14) sits near 46 and price is hugging EMA20.
Support: 0.56777, 0.56696
Resistance: 0.56821, 0.56864, 0.5692
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5686 swing high breaks the lower-high chain; the 0.5692 lower high is next overhead
Failure to hold the 0.5678 pullback low exposes the 0.5670 session low
US Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC and RBNZ Wed 01:00 UTC could materially shift this read
16:03 UTC
Downtrend, NY rebound stalling · RSI 45 · price 0.56795
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian range break; corrective bounce from the 0.5670 session low.
London broke the 0.5695–0.5707 Asian range lower and NY extended the lower-high chain to a 0.5670 session low as the USD firmed into the Fed. The bounce retraced roughly half the move to the 0.5682 rebound high and is stalling at the descending trendline and EMA20 after London close, holding above the 0.5678 london low with RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 0.5678, 0.56696
Resistance: 0.56821, 0.56864, 0.5692
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5682 rebound high and descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain and opens 0.5686, the last lower high
Failure to hold the 0.5678 london low re-exposes the 0.5670 session low
Reclaiming the 0.5692 london high is needed to revisit the Asian range
US durable goods Tue 12:30 UTC and pre-RBNZ swap repricing (decision Wed 01:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs/lower lows since Asia; bounce off NY low capped at falling trendline.
London broke below the 0.5695 Asian low and NY extended the slide to the 0.5670 NY low as the USD firmed into this week's Fed. The bounce is stalling at the 0.5682 bounce high, where the falling trendline meets the 23.6% fib, with price just under EMA20, RSI(14) at 44 and a 0.5675 higher low holding for now.
Support: 0.5675, 0.5670
Resistance: 0.5682, 0.5686, 0.5695
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5682 bounce high and falling trendline opens the 0.5686 lower high
Break of the 0.5675 higher low puts the 0.5670 NY low back in play
Reclaim of the 0.5695 Asian low needed to neutralise the intraday downtrend
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC (~33h); swap repricing ahead of it could shift this read
Lower highs from the Asia peak; Asian range broken lower, NY low followed by a corrective higher low.
London broke the 0.5695 Asian low and NY extended the slide to a 0.56696 session low as the USD firmed into the Fed, below the 0.5680s range low flagged in the NZD digest. The rebound printed a higher low at 0.56748 but met rejection at the 0.56821 bounce high, at the descending trendline and between the 23.6% and 38.2% retracement, with price back under EMA20.
Support: 0.56748, 0.56696
Resistance: 0.56821, 0.56864, 0.56953
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56864 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and the descending trendline
Failure to hold the 0.56748 higher low exposes the 0.56696 session low
Reclaim of the 0.56953 Asian low would put price back inside the Asian range
US durable goods Tue 12:30 UTC, then RBNZ Wed 01:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since London open; bounce pressing the descending line.
London open broke the Asian low near 0.5695, and the lower-high, lower-low chain ran to a 0.5670 session low in early NY as the USD firmed into the Fed. The bounce has recovered about 11 pips to the 61.8% retrace of the last leg near 0.5680. Price is stalling at EMA20 and the descending line, with RSI(14) back to 47.
Support: 0.5678, 0.5670
Resistance: 0.5686, 0.5695
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5686 lower high breaks the descending line and the lower-high chain; the asian low at 0.5695 is the next reference
Slip back under the 0.5678 prior pivot keeps the bounce corrective, and loss of the 0.5670 session low resumes the lower-low sequence
US durable goods Tue 12:30 UTC, then RBNZ (Wed 01:00 UTC, ~34h) and Fed (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
14:47 UTC
Downtrend, early NY bounce · RSI 43 · price 0.56787
Lower highs and lower lows since London broke the Asian range low.
London broke below the 0.5694 Asian range low, and NZD/USD carved lower highs into NY as pre-Fed USD short-covering pressed it to a 0.5670 session low. The NY bounce has stalled at the 38.2% fib near 0.5678, just under the ema20 at 0.5681, with RSI(14) at 43 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 0.5670
Resistance: 0.5681, 0.5686, 0.5692
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5686 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and brings the 0.5692 london high into view
Rejection at the ema20 near 0.5681 keeps the downtrend sequence intact
Failure to hold the 0.5670 session low confirms a fresh lower-low
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC is the dominant event risk and could compress ranges into it
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian range high.
The Asian range high at 0.5707 capped the session. London broke below the 0.5695 range low, and the first hours of NY extended the sell-off to a 0.5670 session low as the USD firmed into the Fed. Price is now bouncing into the broken 0.5678 low, which lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the London leg. The descending trendline from the 0.5692 London high sits just above, near 0.5682.
Support: 0.56696, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5678, 0.56864, 0.5700
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 0.5678 broken low or the trendline keeps the lower-high chain intact
M15 close above the 0.5686 lower high breaks the descending sequence and puts the 0.5700 pivot back in view
Failure to hold the 0.5670 session low exposes the 0.5650 rally base of the prior five-session advance
No scheduled data in the next 8h; US durable goods Tue 12:30 UTC and RBNZ Wed 01:00 UTC are the next event risks
14:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 31 · price 0.56728
Asian range broken lower, LH/LL chain into NY.
Monday's Asian range (0.5695–0.5707) gave way at the London open, and London into the first hour of NY printed a lower-high sequence down to a fresh session low at 0.5670 as the USD firmed on short-trimming into FOMC. The 0.5700 pivot is lost. The prior low at 0.5678 is now overhead, and RSI(14) near 31 is soft but not stretched.
Support: 0.56696
Resistance: 0.5678, 0.56864, 0.56953
What it said to watch
A close back above the 0.5686 lower high breaks the descending sequence and the trendline
Failure to hold the 0.5670 session low extends the lower-low chain
A return inside the Asian low at 0.5695 would undo the range break read
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC (~35h) and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
13:47 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 31 · price 0.56777
LH/LL chain below broken Asian range low.
Asia stalled at 0.5707 near the 0.5700 pivot. London then broke the Asian range low near 0.5695 and has printed lower highs at the london high 0.5692 and the lower high 0.5686, while the USD firmed on short-trimming into FOMC. The first hour of NY extended to a session low at 0.56735. RSI(14) is near 31 and price sits under both EMAs, with the 0.5682 broken low now overhead.
Support: 0.56735, 0.5670
Resistance: 0.56825, 0.56864, 0.5692
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5686 lower high breaks the lower-high line and the LH/LL chain
Failure to hold the 0.56735 session low extends the sequence toward the 0.5670 round number
Reclaim of the 0.5682 broken low would point to the London leg's fib retracement zone toward 0.5683–0.5685
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC (~35h) and Wed FOMC remain the larger swing risks; guidance on further hikes is the NZD driver
13:32 UTC
Downtrend, extending into NY · RSI 30 · price 0.56772
Lower highs and lower lows below the broken Asian range.
London broke below the Asian low near 0.5695 and has since printed lower highs and lower lows. The first hour of NY extended the slide to a 0.56748 session low as the USD firms ahead of the Fed. The 0.56864 lower high sits at the 38.2% retrace of the decline and caps the lower-high trendline, with RSI(14) near 30.
Support: 0.56748, 0.5670
Resistance: 0.56864, 0.5692, 0.5695
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56864 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline sequence
Failure to hold the 0.56748 session low exposes the 0.5670 round number
Recovery through the 0.5692 swing high puts the Asian low at 0.5695 back in play
US Durable Goods (Tue 12:30 UTC) and RBNZ (Wed 01:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since London broke the Asian range; double test of 0.5678.
London broke below the 0.5695 Asian low and has printed a chain of lower highs since, as the USD firmed in pre-Fed trade. Early NY is retesting the 0.5678 session low after the bounce capped at the 0.5686 lower high. RSI(14) is near 31 and ATR(14) is about 3 pips.
Support: 0.5678
Resistance: 0.5686, 0.5695, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5678 session low extends the lower-low chain
Recovery above the 0.5686 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 0.5695 asian low back in play
Reclaim of 0.5700 psych needed to undo the London range break
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since London open; NY low at 0.5678 swept and reclaimed.
London broke below the 0.5695 Asian low as the dollar firmed on pre-Fed short-covering, and the lower-high trendline has capped every bounce since. The first hour of NY swept to 0.5678 before reclaiming the 0.5682 swing low. Price is pinned just under the trendline near 0.5687, with RSI(14) at 33.
Support: 0.5682, 0.5678
Resistance: 0.5687, 0.5692, 0.5695
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5687 trendline breaks the lower-high chain; the fib 50% at 0.5692 of the London selloff and the 0.5695 asian low sit above
Loss of the 0.5682 swing low and a close below the 0.5678 ny low resumes the London selloff
RBNZ (Wed 01:00 UTC) and FOMC (Wed 18:00 UTC) pre-positioning keeps ranges tight; US Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled USD input
12:47 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 36 · price 0.56835
Asian range broken lower, lower-high chain intact.
London broke the Asian low at 0.56953 and stepped lower, capping at a 0.5692 lower high as USD firmed on short-covering ahead of the Fed. The early-NY sweep to the 0.5678 session low was rejected, but the bounce stalled at 0.56864 (bounce high), and price is now pinned near the 0.5682 swing low.
Support: 0.5682, 0.5678
Resistance: 0.56864, 0.5692, 0.56953
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.5692 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and puts the asian low at 0.56953 back in play
Failure to hold the 0.5682 swing low exposes the 0.5678 session low; acceptance below it extends the downtrend
Repeated rejection at the 0.56864 bounce high, which sits on the descending lower-highs trendline, keeps the London-to-NY sequence intact
No scheduled data in the next 8h; RBNZ (Wed 01:00 UTC) and FOMC (Wed 18:00 UTC) are the event risk that could reset this read
12:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, testing for a base · RSI 38 · price 0.5685
London lower-high chain below Asian range; spike low reclaimed.
London broke below the 0.5695 Asian low and printed lower highs as USD firmed on pre-FOMC short-covering. Into the London-NY transition, price swept the 0.5682 London lows to a 0.5678 session low, then reclaimed them and closed back above the descending trendline. RSI(14) is near 38, and price sits just under the fib 38.2 near 0.5689.
Support: 0.5682, 0.5678
Resistance: 0.5692, 0.5695
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5692 swing high and the fib 38.2 (0.5689) would break the lower-high chain
Acceptance back inside the Asian range above 0.5695 shifts the read to a range
Failure to hold the 0.5682 london lows exposes the 0.5678 session low and resumes lower lows
RBNZ (Wed 01:00 UTC) and FOMC later this week keep NZD coiled, so moves may stay contained
12:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 26 · price 0.56824
Asian range broken lower, lower-high chain into NY.
London opened with a break of the Asian low near 0.5695, and the London high at 0.5692 has been followed by a steady chain of lower highs into the 0.5686 area. The first NY bar swept to a 0.5678 NY low and closed back at 0.5682, with RSI(14) near 26. The pullback matches USD firming as shorts are trimmed into the Fed.
Support: 0.5678
Resistance: 0.5686, 0.5692, 0.5695
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5678 NY low extends the lower-low chain
M15 close above the 0.5686 lower high breaks the descending trendline sequence
Reclaim of the 0.5692 London high and 0.5695 Asian low puts price back inside the Asian range, which sits near the 38.2–50% fib zone
RBNZ decision (Wed 01:00 UTC) and FOMC (Wed 18:00 UTC) are later in the week and could materially shift this read; intraday moves into them may stay thin
Lower highs and lower lows since London broke below the Asian range.
The 0.5700 psych cap held through Asia. London open then broke the Asian low near 0.5695, and the only bounce stalled at the 0.5692 lower high, the 50% retrace of the London drop. Price is now grinding along Friday's 0.5684 low just above the 0.5682 session low, ranges compressing as NZD sits sidelined ahead of Wednesday's RBNZ.
Support: 0.56822, 0.5680
Resistance: 0.5692, 0.5695, 0.5700
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5692 lower high breaks the London lower-high chain along the lower high line
Failure to hold the 0.5682 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5680 round number
Reclaim of the 0.5695 asian low puts price back inside the Asian range and neutralises the range break
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC (~37h) is the main event risk; pre-decision positioning during NY hours could shift this read
11:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs and lows since London open · RSI 36 · price 0.56842
Asian range broken lower; LH 0.5692, LL 0.5683.
NZD stalled under the 0.5700 cap in Asia, then London broke the Asian low at 0.5695 as USD dip-buying showed up in early Europe. The bounce to 0.5692 formed a lower high near the 50% of the London leg fib, and price now sits at the 0.5683 session low, just under Friday's low. RSI(14) near 36 is not stretched and price is under the descending trendline.
Support: 0.56829, 0.5680
Resistance: 0.5692, 0.56953
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5692 lower high breaks the LH/LL chain; a move back above the 0.5695 Asian low negates the London range break
Failure to hold the 0.5683 session low leaves the 0.5680 round number as the next reference
Sustained trade above the descending trendline from the 0.5705 Asian high weakens the downtrend read
NY open in about 2h may bring the session's next range extension; RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC is the main event risk
Asian range broken lower in London; lower highs and lower lows since.
London broke the Asian low at 0.5695 and has pressed a lower-high, lower-low sequence down to a 0.5683 session low, level with Friday's early-session trough. The 0.5692 lower high capped the only bounce. RSI(14) near 37 and a sub-3-pip ATR point to a slow grind as NZD stays capped under the 0.5700 psych level ahead of RBNZ.
Support: 0.56833, 0.5680
Resistance: 0.5692, 0.56953, 0.5700
What it said to watch
A close back above the 0.5692 lower high breaks the descending sequence, and the line of lower highs with it
Reclaiming the 0.5695 Asian low would mark the London break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5683 session low opens the 0.5680 round number
Thin flows into RBNZ (Wed 01:00 UTC) and FOMC keep intraday ranges compressed
0.5700 psych and the 0.5707 Asian high cap the upside in the fib retracement
11:02 UTC
Downtrend since London open, momentum flattening · RSI 36 · price 0.56858
Asian range broken lower, lower highs and marginal lower lows.
Pre-RBNZ, the pair stayed capped near 0.5700 and slipped at London open, breaking the 0.5696 asian low (Asian range 0.5696–0.5707) for a slide to 0.5685. The bounce stalled at the 0.5692 lower high (near the fib 50%), and price is now grinding at the 0.5684 session low just above the 0.5683 friday low, with RSI(14) at 36 and below both EMAs.
Support: 0.56841, 0.56832
Resistance: 0.5692, 0.56965, 0.57069
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5683 friday low extends the lower-low sequence
M15 close above the 0.5692 lower high and the trendline breaks the intraday downtrend read
Reclaim of the 0.5696 asian low puts price back inside the Asian range, with the 0.5707 asian high above
NY session tends to lift M15 ranges beyond the current ATR of about 3 pips
RBNZ decision in about 38h; pre-decision repricing of hike odds could shift this read
London broke below the Asian range; lower high at 0.5692, base forming near 0.5685.
London open broke below the Asian range, which ran from the 0.5695 asian low to a 0.5707 high. Price slid to a 0.5685 london low, and the bounce high at 0.5692 capped the retrace. Demand reappeared at 0.56847, keeping RSI(14) near 35. That fits the digest's read of NZD capped near 0.5700 as positioning stays light ahead of RBNZ.
Support: 0.56847, 0.56831
Resistance: 0.56919, 0.56945, 0.5700
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.56847 london low exposes the 0.56831 friday low and extends the lower-low chain
A reclaim of the 0.56919 bounce high, then the 0.56945 asian low, would undo the London range break
The 0.5700 round number capped Asia twice; it remains the upper reference for any recovery
RBNZ decision on Wed 01:00 UTC (~41h) keeps intraday ranges compressed; pre-decision repricing could shift this read
Asian range broken lower at London open; lower high at 0.5692, base at 0.5685.
The London open broke below the Asian low near 0.5695 and ran to the 0.5685 session low. Demand has held that level twice, and the 0.5692 bounce stalled into a lower high under the London downtrend line. RSI(14) sits near 33 and ATR is about 3 pips, with trade subdued ahead of Wednesday's RBNZ.
Support: 0.56847, 0.56831
Resistance: 0.5692, 0.56953, 0.57069
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.5685 session low exposes the 0.5683 Friday low.
A close back above the 0.5692 lower high and the London downtrend line would neutralise the selloff.
Reclaiming the 0.5695 Asian low puts the 0.5707 Asian high back in range.
RBNZ on Wed 01:00 UTC and US durables on Tue 12:30 UTC are the next catalysts; nothing is scheduled in the next 8h.
10:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 28 · price 0.56863
Asian range broken lower; lower high at 0.5692, London low 0.5685 tested twice.
London open broke the Asian low near 0.5695 and slid to 0.5685. Kiwi is giving back part of its pre-RBNZ run after stalling under the 0.5700 cap, with RSI(14) near 28. Mid-London, the bounce stalled at the 0.5692 lower high near the 50% fib. The 0.5685 London low has held twice, with the Friday low at 0.5683 just beneath.
Support: 0.56847, 0.56831
Resistance: 0.5692, 0.56953, 0.57069
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5685 london low and the 0.5683 friday low extends the lower-low sequence
Close back above the 0.5692 lower high breaks the London downtrend line
Reclaiming the 0.5695 asian low puts the range back in play toward the 0.5707 asian high
US Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence on Tuesday could materially shift this read
RBNZ decision on Wed 01:00 UTC (hike to 3.00% expected) could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower at London open; lower high at 0.5692.
Asia pushed to an asian high of 0.5707 but stalled under the 0.5700/0.5710 cap flagged ahead of Wednesday's RBNZ. London open broke the asian low at 0.5695 and slid to a 0.5685 session low. The rebound met rejection at the 0.5692 bounce high, about the 38.2% of the London drop fib, and price is back near 0.5688 mid-London with RSI(14) in the mid-30s.
Support: 0.56848, 0.56831
Resistance: 0.5692, 0.56953, 0.57069
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5692 bounce high and the 0.5695 asian low undercuts the range-break read
Failure at the 0.5685 session low exposes the 0.5683 friday low
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC (~39h) is the dominant risk; US Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC for the USD leg
09:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, bouncing off London low · RSI 44 · price 0.56913
Asian range broken lower, lower highs since 0.5707.
Asia capped at the 0.5707 session high below the 0.5700/0.5710 zone. Early-Europe USD dip-buying then broke the 0.5695 Asian low and printed a 0.5685 London low. The rebound is stalling at the 0.5692 bounce high, below EMA20 and the 38.2% fib. RSI(14) is near 44 and the lower-highs trendline is intact.
Support: 0.56848, 0.56831
Resistance: 0.5692, 0.56953, 0.57069
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5695 Asian low negates the range break and brings the 50% fib into play
Failure to hold the 0.5685 London low exposes the 0.5683 Friday low
Break of the lower-highs trendline (~0.5698) ends the intraday down-sequence
Clearing the bounce high at 0.5692 is the first sign the London selloff is being retraced
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC (~41h) keeps ranges compressed; US Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC is the nearer USD risk
Asian range broken lower at London open; lower highs since the Asia high.
In Asia, the push above Friday's 0.5704 high to the 0.57069 asia high was a false break. Price then printed lower highs and lost the Asian range at London open, with the drop stalling at the 0.56848 london low just above the friday low. The bounce is now testing the ema20 and 38.2% fib near 0.5693, just under the broken asian low, with RSI(14) at 39 and NZD capped near 0.5700 ahead of the RBNZ.
Support: 0.56848, 0.56831
Resistance: 0.5693, 0.56943, 0.57069
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.56943 asian low puts price back inside the Asian range and negates the range break
Rejection at the ema20 / 38.2% fib near 0.5693 keeps the lower highs sequence intact
Failure below the 0.56848 london low exposes the 0.56831 friday low
No events on the 8h calendar; US Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC and RBNZ Wed 01:00 UTC (~41h) are the next scheduled risks to this read
Asian range broken lower in London, lower highs since the Asia spike.
Monday's Asian session spiked to the 0.57069 Asian high, then ranged under the 0.5700/0.5710 cap on a run of lower highs. London broke the 0.56953 Asian low and extended to a 0.56848 session low just above the 0.56831 Friday low. Price is bouncing near 0.5690 with RSI(14) at 36, positioning subdued ahead of Wednesday's RBNZ.
Support: 0.56848, 0.56831
Resistance: 0.56953, 0.57069
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.56953 Asian low (near the fib 38–50% zone) would neutralise the range break
Loss of the 0.56848 session low exposes the 0.56831 Friday low
A break of the lower-highs line from the 0.57048 Asia pivot would end the intraday down sequence
NY open liquidity could set the session range; RBNZ (Wed 01:00 UTC) remains the dominant event risk
Asian range broken lower at London open, basing above Friday low.
London open broke the Asian low at 0.5695 and pushed down to a 0.5685 session low. That unwinds Monday's Asia drift toward the 0.5700 round number and the 0.5705 Asian high, with the RBNZ still 41h out. Price is now basing in a tight 2-3 pip band just above the 0.5683 Friday low, with RSI(14) recovering from near 30 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.56848, 0.56831
Resistance: 0.56953, 0.5700, 0.57055
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5683 Friday low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 0.5695 Asian low and the lower-highs line negates the range-break read
Shifts in RBNZ hike pricing ahead of Wednesday's decision could move the pair outside the current session range
08:46 UTC
Downtrend, early London leg lower · RSI 23 · price 0.56863
Asian range broken to downside, lower highs since 06:00 UTC.
London open broke the Asian low near 0.5695 and erased Friday's NY rally, printing a 0.5685 session low after the 0.5700 round number capped price again, as the NZD digest flagged. RSI(14) near 23 after the drop, with price stalling just above the Friday low at 0.5683 and the fib of the session high-to-low leg framing any bounce.
Support: 0.56848, 0.5683
Resistance: 0.5695, 0.5700, 0.57069
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5685 session low and the 0.5683 friday low extends the lower-low chain
Reclaim of the 0.5695 asian low turns the break into a false break and puts the 0.5700 round number back in focus
Session high at 0.5707 marks the top of the leg; only a move above it negates the downtrend read
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC (~41h) and pre-decision swaps repricing could shift this read
Asian range broken to the downside at London open, lower highs since 03:15 UTC.
London open broke the 0.5695–0.5707 Asian range to the downside, taking out the Asian low and Friday's NY low, and extending to a session low at 0.56848. The drop comes on a lower-highs sequence, with RSI(14) near 25. Price sits just above the Friday low at 0.5683, and the 38.2% fib of the Asian high to session low move near 0.5693 lines up with the broken Asian low.
Support: 0.56848, 0.56829
Resistance: 0.5695, 0.5700, 0.57069
What it said to watch
Recovery and hold back above the 0.5695 Asian low would turn the London move into a false break
Failure at the Friday low of 0.5683 extends the lower-low sequence
A break of the lower highs trendline plus a reclaim of 0.5700 psych would undo the range-break read
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC (~41h): pre-meeting hike repricing in swaps could shift this read
Asian range broken lower into London open; lower highs since session high.
Repeated stalls under the 0.5700/0.5710 cap after the 0.5707 Asian high gave way into the London open. Price broke the Asian low at 0.5695 and printed a 0.5687 session low, with RSI(14) near 21 oversold ahead of Wednesday's RBNZ decision. Friday low at 0.5683 is the next reference below.
Support: 0.56872, 0.56829
Resistance: 0.56945, 0.5700, 0.57069
What it said to watch
Recovery back above the 0.5695 Asian low, near the 38.2% of the Asian drop, puts price back inside the range and negates the range break
Failure to hold the 0.5687 session low exposes the 0.5683 Friday low
Reclaim of the 0.5700 round number would invalidate the lower-high sequence
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC (~41h) and pre-decision swaps repricing could materially shift this read
07:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia open · price 0.56908
Asian range broken lower into London open; lower-high chain from the 0.5707 Asian high.
No narrative produced.
Support: 0.5690, 0.5683
Resistance: 0.56953, 0.57069
07:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia open · RSI 27 · price 0.56926
Asian range broken lower into London open.
Asia spiked to an Asian high at 0.5707, short of the 0.5710 one-month high, then printed a chain of lower highs below the 0.5700 psych handle. The 06:15 UTC bar broke the Asian low at 0.5695 to a new session low at 0.5692 ahead of London open, with RSI(14) near 27 as positioning consolidates before Wednesday's RBNZ.
Support: 0.56924, 0.5690, 0.56829
Resistance: 0.56953, 0.5700, 0.57069
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5695 Asian low marks the range break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5692 session low exposes the 0.5690 round number, then the 0.5683 Friday low
Break of the lower highs trendline and reclaim of 0.5700 psych reopens the 0.5707 Asian high
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC; a hike is largely priced and pre-meeting positioning may keep ranges tight
07:16 UTC
Intraday drift lower within Asian range · RSI 36 · price 0.5697
Lower highs from 0.5707 session high, pressing Asian low.
After a small Sunday gap, Asia pushed past Friday's 0.5704 to a 0.5707 session high. Three tests of 0.5705–0.5707 were rejected, and price has since slid on a lower-highs line to 0.5697, below the 0.5700 round number and just above the 0.5695 Asian low heading into the London open. Firming RBNZ hike expectations have kept the pair pinned near 0.5700 rather than driving a break.
Support: 0.56953, 0.5683
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.57069
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5695 asian low breaks the Asian range and exposes the 0.5683 friday low
Close back above the 0.5700 round number and the lower-highs line negates the intraday fade; 0.5707 session high is the next cap
No scheduled NZD/USD data in the next 8h; RBNZ (Wed 01:00 UTC) and FOMC are the week's catalysts
07:03 UTC
Flat, pinned to 0.5700 · RSI 42 · price 0.56995
Lower highs into flat lows inside 0.5695–0.5707 session range.
Monday opened on a small gap lower and spiked to a 0.5707 session high. It then printed lower highs at 0.5705 and 0.5702 while the 0.5695 session low and 0.56965 swing low held, leaving price coiled at the 0.5700 psych handle with RSI(14) near 42 and both EMAs flat overhead. A softer USD and firmer RBNZ hike pricing have lifted NZD into the cap, but the session range has not broken.
Support: 0.56965, 0.56953, 0.56829
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.5705, 0.57069
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5705 lower highs trendline breaks the compression and puts the 0.5707 session high back in play
Failure to hold the 0.56953 session low opens the path toward the 0.5683 friday low
US data from 12:15 UTC Tue (ADP, Durable Goods, Consumer Confidence) is the next scheduled driver; RBNZ Wed 01:00 UTC is the larger event risk around the 0.5700 psych handle
06:46 UTC
Sideways, lower highs into London open · RSI 39 · price 0.56982
Asian range 0.5695–0.5707 with descending highs, price back under 0.5700.
Monday Asia filled the small weekend gap and tagged the 0.57069 Asian high early. Since then it has printed a lower high at 0.57055, then another at 0.57048, and slipped back under the 0.5700 round number with a swing low at 0.56965 just above the 0.56953 Asian low. Range is compressing, with ATR near 2 pips, as positioning consolidates ahead of Wednesday's RBNZ decision on a softer USD.
Support: 0.56965, 0.56953, 0.56829
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.57048, 0.57069
What it said to watch
M15 close above the lower-high trendline and 0.57048 breaks the descending-high sequence and puts the 0.57069 Asian high back in play
Failure to hold the 0.56953 Asian low opens Friday's NY-session base toward the 0.56829 Friday low
London open in ~15 min is the first test of the Asian range; failure to reclaim the 0.5700 round number keeps supply capping above
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC (~46h) and US data Tue 12:15–14:00 UTC are the next event risks; nothing scheduled in the next 8h
06:31 UTC
Intraday range, drifting lower from Asia high · RSI 37 · price 0.56982
Lower highs from 0.5707 inside a 0.5695–0.5707 Asian range.
Early Asia spiked to a 0.5707 session high on firmer RBNZ hike bets and a softer USD, but the 0.5700 psych handle has capped it. Lower highs at 0.57055 and 0.5705 are pressing price back toward the 0.5696 recent low and 0.5695 Asia low as London open approaches.
Support: 0.56965, 0.56953, 0.56829
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.57048, 0.57069
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5695 Asia low breaks the range and leaves the Friday low at 0.5683 as the next swing reference
Reclaim of the 0.5700 psych and a break of the lower-high trendline near 0.5703 would neutralise the fade
Session high at 0.5707 remains the range top; a break exposes the 0.5710 one-month high
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC is the dominant event risk this week; US durables and confidence data Tuesday
06:16 UTC
Sideways, highs fading · RSI 38 · price 0.56978
Asian range 0.5695–0.5707 with lower highs, price at lower end.
Monday Asia spiked to a 0.5707 session high above Friday's peak and met rejection. Each push since has stalled lower, at 0.5706 and then the 0.5705 lower high, and the 0.5700 round number now caps price. The pair is slipping back toward the 0.5695 session low ahead of London open, RSI(14) near 38, as NZD consolidates before Wednesday's RBNZ.
Support: 0.56953, 0.56829
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.57048, 0.57069
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5695 session low breaks the Asian range and exposes the 0.5683 friday low
M15 close back above the 0.5705 lower high invalidates the descending-highs read
London open could set fresh session range direction around the 0.5700 round number
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC is the main catalyst; pre-event ranges likely stay compressed
06:04 UTC
Flat, coiling around 0.5700 · RSI 45 · price 0.57002
Lower highs vs higher lows inside Asian range.
Monday Asia opened with a small gap lower, then spiked to a 0.57069 session high. Since then the pair has been compressing around the 0.5700 handle, with lower highs at 0.57055 and 0.57048 against higher lows at 0.56953 and 0.56987. Positioning is consolidating ahead of Wednesday's RBNZ, with RSI(14) near 45 and ATR(14) under 2 pips about two hours before London open.
Support: 0.56987, 0.56953
Resistance: 0.57048, 0.57069
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.57048 lower high breaks the compression and exposes the 0.57069 session high
Failure to hold the 0.56987 higher low breaks the coil and opens the 0.56953 swing low
London open is the first test of whether the Asian range holds
RBNZ decision and MPS on Wed 01:00 UTC is the main event risk keeping the range tight
Asian range 0.5695–0.5707, lower highs against a 0.5698 shelf.
Monday's Asia session opened with a small gap down from Friday's 0.5700 close and has since held a 0.5695–0.5707 range. Session highs are stepping lower (0.5707, 0.5705, 0.5705) while the 0.5698 shelf has held three times. Price sits just under the EMAs with RSI(14) near 45 and ATR around 2 pips, as NZD drifts toward 0.5700 on firming RBNZ hike bets.
Support: 0.56985, 0.5695
Resistance: 0.5705, 0.57069, 0.5710
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5698 shelf exposes the 0.5695 asian low and breaks the range floor
Close above the lower highs line near 0.5705 and the 0.5707 session high opens the 0.5710 month high
London open is the first test of the Asian range
US data on Tuesday and the RBNZ decision on Wednesday at 01:00 UTC (~46h) could materially shift this read
05:32 UTC
Flat, coiling at 0.5700 · RSI 48 · price 0.57004
Asian range 0.56953–0.57069, lower highs compressing into the 0.5700 floor.
Late Asia session: the Sunday-open spike to the 0.57069 asian high and a second push to 0.57055 both faded, and later intraday highs keep stepping lower into the 0.5700 floor at 0.56997. Firmer RBNZ hike pricing and a soft USD are holding price on the handle, but bars have shrunk to an ATR(14) of about 1.8 pips, with price sitting between EMA20 above and EMA50 below.
Support: 0.56997, 0.56953, 0.56829
Resistance: 0.57048, 0.57069, 0.5710
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5700 floor (0.56997) exposes the asian low at 0.56953; losing that opens the friday low at 0.56829
Close above the 0.57048 lower high and the 0.57069 asian high breaks the descending sequence and brings the 0.5710 1m high into view
London open is the first test of the compressed Asian range
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC are the main event risks; US Durables and Consumer Confidence on Tue sit ahead of both
05:16 UTC
Flat, compressing around 0.5700 · RSI 51 · price 0.57006
Asian range 0.56953–0.57069 tightening, with lower highs and higher lows.
Monday's open gapped slightly below Friday's close, then spiked to a 0.57069 session high as RBNZ hike bets firmed and the USD softened. Asia has since printed lower highs at 0.57055 and 0.57048 against higher lows at 0.56953 and 0.56984, coiling into a pennant around 0.5700 psych late in the Asia session. ATR near 2 pips reflects the compression.
Support: 0.56997, 0.56984, 0.56953
Resistance: 0.57048, 0.57069, 0.5710
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.57048 lower high breaks the pennant top and puts the 0.57069 session high back in play; beyond that, the 0.5710 one-month high (1m high) is the cap flagged in the digest.
Failure to hold the 0.56984 higher low breaks the pennant base and exposes the 0.56953 Asia low.
London open in under 2h is the first test of the compressed Asian range.
The RBNZ decision on Wed Oct 28 at 01:00 UTC keeps 0.5700–0.5710 in focus. Range expansion may stay limited until then.
05:05 UTC
Sideways, contracting around 0.5700 · RSI 51 · price 0.5700
Lower highs vs higher lows since the Monday Asia open.
Monday Asia gapped lower, then pushed above Friday's 0.5704 high to a session high at 0.5707. That move failed, and price has since coiled on the 0.5700 handle, with lower highs at 0.57055 and 0.57048 against a higher low at 0.5698 above the 0.5695 session low. Firmer RBNZ hike pricing and a softer USD are holding the pair near the cap, but there is no follow-through yet, with RSI(14) flat near 51.
Support: 0.56984, 0.56953, 0.56829
Resistance: 0.57048, 0.57069, 0.5710
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5705 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 0.5707 session high and 0.5710 1m high back in play
Failure to hold the 0.5698 higher low exposes the 0.5695 session low, and below that the 0.5683 friday low
London open in ~2h is the first test of the Asian range edges
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC; positioning ahead of it could keep the higher lows and lower highs compressing
04:46 UTC
Sideways, range contracting near 0.5700 · RSI 47 · price 0.57012
Lower highs vs higher lows inside Monday Asian range.
Monday's small weekend gap lower filled quickly. The pair printed a 0.57069 session high, then compressed into lower highs at 0.57055 and 0.57048 against higher lows at 0.56953 and 0.56984, mid-Asia session. RSI(14) is neutral near 47 and ATR is about 20 pips as positioning consolidates around 0.5700 ahead of Wednesday's RBNZ.
Support: 0.56984, 0.56953
Resistance: 0.57048, 0.57069, 0.5710
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.57048 lower high and 0.57069 session high breaks the contraction, with the 0.5710 month high next overhead
Failure to hold the 0.56984 higher low exposes the 0.56953 session low
London open is the likely trigger for resolving the squeeze
RBNZ decision (Wed 01:00 UTC, ~44h) and Fed decision (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
04:32 UTC
Sideways, compressing near 0.5700 · RSI 45 · price 0.57003
Asia session coil: lower highs from 0.5707, higher lows from 0.5695.
Late Asia session sits on the 0.5700 round number. Firmer RBNZ hike pricing and softer US yields lifted the pair to a 0.5707 session high early, but lower highs near 0.5705 and a higher low at 0.5698 have squeezed the Asian range into a ~10-pip coil. RSI(14) is neutral near 45 and price is just under the ema20.
Support: 0.5700, 0.56984, 0.56945
Resistance: 0.5705, 0.57069, 0.5710
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.5707 session high puts the 0.5710 1m high in play
Loss of the 0.5698 higher low reopens the 0.5695 asian low
London open is likely to resolve the coil between the lower highs and higher lows
US Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC and RBNZ Wed 01:00 UTC could materially shift this read
04:16 UTC
Flat, compressing near 0.5700 · RSI 48 · price 0.57013
Lower highs and higher lows inside the Asian range.
Monday's Asia session pushed above Friday's 0.5704 NY high to an asian high of 0.57069, then reversed, a false break. Since then lower highs at 0.57055 and 0.57048 and a higher low at 0.56984 off the 0.56953 asian low have compressed price around the 0.5700 round number, with ATR near 2.4 pips as the Kiwi drifts into Wednesday's RBNZ.
Support: 0.5700, 0.56984, 0.56953
Resistance: 0.57048, 0.57069
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.57048 lower high and the descending lower-highs trendline puts the 0.57069 asian high back in play.
A close below the 0.56984 higher low exposes the 0.56953 asian low and breaks the rising higher-lows line.
Repeated closes under the 0.5700 round number would match the digest's 'cap' read at that handle.
London open (08:00 UTC) is the first test of the compressed Asian range.
US Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC and the RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC could materially shift this read.
04:04 UTC
Flat, compressing around 0.5700 · RSI 55 · price 0.5701
Asia session coil, lower highs against higher lows.
Asia opened with a small weekend gap down to 0.5695, filled within the hour, then pushed to a 0.5707 session high above Friday's NY peak at 0.5704. Since then price has compressed: lower highs at 0.5706 and 0.5705 against higher lows at 0.5695 and 0.5698, with price sitting on EMA20. RSI(14) is neutral near 55 and ATR(14) is about 2.6 pips as firmer RBNZ hike expectations keep the pair pinned near 0.5700.
Support: 0.56984, 0.56953
Resistance: 0.57048, 0.57069, 0.5710
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5705 lower high breaks the coil, with the 0.5707 session high and the 0.5710 month high above
Failure to hold the 0.5698 higher low exposes the 0.5695 session low and reopens Friday's range
London open could resolve the compression; Tue US data and the RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC are the larger event risks
03:46 UTC
Sideways, compressing near 0.5700 · RSI 58 · price 0.5702
Higher lows vs lower highs inside the Asian range.
Monday's Asia open gapped about 5 pips below Friday's 0.5700 close and filled within the hour. The 0.5707 session high was rejected, and higher lows at the 0.5695 session low and the 0.5698 swing low now meet lower highs at 0.5705. Price is coiling on the 0.5700 handle as firmer RBNZ hike pricing meets a soft USD.
Support: 0.5698, 0.5695, 0.5683
Resistance: 0.5705, 0.5707
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5707 session high breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 0.5710 one-month high in play
Failure at the 0.5698 swing low and 0.5695 session low exposes the 0.5683 friday low
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC (~45h) and US Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC are the next catalysts that could shift this read
Asian range 0.5695–0.5707 with lower highs and higher lows.
Monday Asia opened slightly below Friday's close and spiked to a 0.5707 session high. Since then each bounce has stalled lower, at 0.5706 and then the 0.5705 lower high, while dips have held higher, from the 0.5695 session low to the 0.5698 higher low. Price is pinned on the 0.5700 round number with ATR near 2.7 pips as the market waits on Wednesday's RBNZ decision, where a hike is largely priced.
Support: 0.5700, 0.56984, 0.56953
Resistance: 0.57048, 0.57069, 0.5710
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5707 session high breaks the compression and opens the 0.5710 1m high
Loss of the 0.5698 higher low and the 0.5700 round number puts the 0.5695 session low back in play
A break of either compression trendline during the London open (~3.5h) is the likely source of range expansion
RBNZ guidance on Wed 01:00 UTC is the dominant catalyst for any decisive move through 0.5710
03:16 UTC
Sideways, compressing around 0.5700 · RSI 56 · price 0.57031
Asia session coil: lower highs from 0.57069, higher lows from 0.56953.
Monday's Asia session filled the small weekend gap to 0.56945 in the first hour, spiked to a 0.57069 session high, then printed lower highs at 0.57055 and 0.5704 against higher lows at 0.56953 and 0.56984. Firmer RBNZ hike pricing and a softer USD have kept price pinned at the 0.5700 round number and the Friday high. RSI(14) is neutral near 56 and ATR is about 3 pips, so the coil is tight.
Support: 0.5700, 0.56984, 0.56953
Resistance: 0.5704, 0.57069, 0.5710
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.57069 session high breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 0.5710 1m high in play.
A break below the 0.56984 higher low ends the compression and reopens the 0.56953 session low.
Failure to hold the 0.5700 round number returns price to Friday's NY pullback area.
London open may resolve the Asian range. The RBNZ decision on Wed at 01:00 UTC, with the guidance more than the hike itself, is the larger catalyst for a break of 0.5710.
03:04 UTC
Sideways, compressing around 0.5700 · RSI 55 · price 0.57019
Lower highs and higher lows since the week open; tightening Asia session range.
The small opening gap filled fast, with a spike to the 0.57069 week high that then faded. Since then the Asia session has made lower highs at 0.57055 and 0.57032 and higher lows at the 0.56953 swing low and the 0.56984 higher low. Price is coiling just above 0.5700 with ATR near 3 pips as the market waits on Wednesday's RBNZ decision.
Support: 0.56984, 0.56953, 0.56831
Resistance: 0.57055, 0.57069, 0.5710
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.57055 lower high and the 0.57069 week high breaks the compression and exposes the 0.5710 one-month high
Failure to hold the 0.56984 higher low reopens the 0.56953 swing low; below that, the Friday low at 0.56831 is the next reference
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC (f/c hike to 3.00%) is the main catalyst; expect thin, range-bound trade until then
02:47 UTC
Sideways, coiling around 0.5700 · RSI 56 · price 0.57015
Asian range 0.5694–0.5707, lower highs and higher lows compressing.
Monday's Asia session filled the 5-pip weekend gap and pushed through the 0.5704 Friday high to a 0.5707 session high. A second attempt at 01:15 UTC was also rejected, leaving price coiled at 0.5700 between the 0.5698 swing low and the Friday high, with lower highs and higher lows compressing the range in thin pre-RBNZ trade. RSI(14) is neutral at 56 and ATR(14) is about 3 pips.
Support: 0.56984, 0.56943
Resistance: 0.57041, 0.57069, 0.5710
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5707 session high breaks the coil and puts the 0.5710 1-month high in play
Failure to hold the 0.5698 swing low exposes the 0.5694 session low and breaks the higher-lows sequence
Acceptance back below the 0.5704 Friday high keeps the upside break attempts classed as rejections
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC (f/c hike to 3.00%) is the dominant event risk and could materially shift this read
Asia session range 0.5695–0.5707, lower highs against higher lows.
The weekend gap filled quickly. The Asia session then pushed through the friday high at 0.57041 to an asia high of 0.57069, but the move failed, and a lower high at 0.57055 followed. A higher low at 0.56984, above the 0.56953 asia low, has price compressing around 0.5700 ahead of Wednesday's RBNZ decision. RSI(14) is neutral near 54.
Support: 0.56984, 0.56953, 0.56831
Resistance: 0.57041, 0.57055, 0.57069
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.57069 asia high invalidates the range read and breaks the lower highs line
Loss of the 0.56984 higher low, then the 0.56953 asia low, exposes the friday low at 0.56831
Repeated rejection at 0.57041–0.57055 keeps the false break above the friday high intact
London open typically expands the Asian range; ATR near 3 pips reflects the pre-RBNZ lull
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC (f/c hike to 3.00%) and US data from Tue 12:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia session range 0.5695–0.5707, lower high inside.
Asia session filled the small weekend gap from 0.5694 and ran to an asian high of 0.57069. That was a false break above Friday's 0.5704 high, rejected back to the 0.56953 swing low, and a lower high at 0.57055 has price pinned at 0.5700 on flat EMAs and RSI(14) near 46. The range tightens as NZD coils ahead of Wednesday's RBNZ decision.
Support: 0.56953, 0.56829
Resistance: 0.57055, 0.57069
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.57069 asian high invalidates the range read
Failure to hold the 0.56953 swing low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 0.56829 friday low
A third rejection at the 0.57055 lower high keeps the asian range capped
Thin weekend-to-Monday conditions; London open is the first real test of the asian range
Asia session range 0.5695–0.5707, lower high forming.
Monday's Asia session opened with a small gap lower that filled at once. Price spiked to a 0.57069 session high, faded, then a second push stalled at 0.57055 for a lower high, and price now sits on the 0.5700 round number with both EMAs flat. The session low at 0.56953 lines up with the 38.2% retracement of Friday's NY rally, and the pair stays coiled under the 0.5710 month high into RBNZ.
Support: 0.56953, 0.56836
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.57069, 0.5710
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5695 session low breaks the Asian range and exposes the friday low at 0.5683
Close above the 0.57069 session high clears the lower-high trendline and puts the 0.5710 month high in play
Repeated rejection at the 0.5700 round number keeps price in the lower half of the range
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC (hike to 3.00% expected) is likely keeping ranges compressed beforehand
01:46 UTC
Sideways, pinned around 0.5700 · RSI 47 · price 0.56988
Asia session range 0.5694–0.5707 with a lower high.
After a small weekend gap lower, the Asia session pushed through the 0.5704 Friday high to a 0.5707 session high and faded. A second push into 0.5706 left a lower high, and price is back under the 0.5700 psych level, inside a range from the 0.5695 Tokyo low to the 0.5707 session high. ATR is near 3 pips and flow is thin, with no fresh NZD news, and RBNZ pricing keeps the pair coiled at the round number.
Support: 0.56953, 0.56943, 0.56829
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.57041, 0.57069
What it said to watch
Close back above the 0.5700 psych level and the 0.5704 Friday high would neutralise the lower-highs read
Break of the 0.5695 Tokyo low and the 0.5694 session low exposes the 0.5683 Friday low
Retracement of the Asian range leg has already passed 61.8%, so a deeper slide would erase the open rally
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC (f/c hike to 3.00%) is the dominant event risk for this range
01:31 UTC
Flat, two-way inside Asian range · RSI 54 · price 0.57023
Asian range 0.5695–0.5707 with a lower high at 0.57055.
Asia session opened about 5 pips below Friday's 0.56996 close. The gap filled inside the first hour, and price spiked to a 0.57069 session high before slipping to a 0.56953 session low. The rebound stalled at 0.57055, a lower high, and price is now sitting on the 0.5700 psych level with a thin weekend news flow ahead of Wednesday's RBNZ.
Support: 0.5700, 0.56953, 0.56829
Resistance: 0.57055, 0.57069, 0.5710
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.57069 session high breaks the Asian range top and brings the 0.5710 1m high into view
Failure to hold 0.5700 psych and the 0.56953 session low reopens the 0.56829 friday low
Lower-highs line from 0.57069 capping rebounds keeps the range read intact
RBNZ decision Wed 28 Oct 01:00 UTC (f/c hike to 3.00%) keeps intraday swings positioning-driven
Higher low at 0.5695 after opening rejection above Friday high.
After a small weekend gap down, the early Asia session pushed above the 0.5704 Friday high to a 0.5707 session high. Price was rejected and pulled back to a 0.5695 session low, near the 50% retrace of Friday's rally off 0.5683. It has since rebuilt above the 0.5700 psych handle and is retesting the Friday high from below, with RSI(14) near 60, as NZD coils into Wednesday's RBNZ.
Support: 0.5700, 0.56953, 0.56829
Resistance: 0.57041, 0.57069
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5707 session high clears the opening rejection and extends the higher-high sequence
Slipping back under the 0.5700 psych handle toward the 0.5695 session low would mark a failed retest of the Friday high
Break of the 0.5683 Friday low invalidates the higher-low trendline and the 50% retrace hold
Thin Asia liquidity and positioning ahead of the RBNZ decision (Wed 01:00 UTC) can stretch intraday ranges
Session range 0.5695–0.5707 after sweep of Friday high.
The weekly open gapped about 5 pips below Friday's 0.56996 close. Early trade then swept the Friday high at 0.57041 to a session high of 0.57069 and faded back to 0.56953, setting a 12-pip session range. Price is back on the 0.5700 round number early in the Asia session with RSI(14) near 57, coiled ahead of Wednesday's RBNZ decision.
Support: 0.5700, 0.56953, 0.56829
Resistance: 0.57041, 0.57069
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.57069 session high invalidates the fade and brings the 0.5710 one-month high into view
Repeated failure at the 0.57041 friday high keeps the sweep-and-fade read intact
Break of the 0.56953 session low reopens the Friday low at 0.56829
RBNZ decision Wed Oct 28 01:00 UTC (f/c hike to 3.00%) could materially shift this read; a hold is the bigger tail
The Monday Asia open spiked to a 0.5707 session high and briefly cleared Friday's 0.5704 high. Price was then rejected back under the 0.5700 round number to a 0.5695 session low, near the 50% retrace of the move from Friday's 0.5683 low. Price is coiling just below 0.5700 in thin trade ahead of Wednesday's RBNZ decision, RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 0.56953, 0.56829
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.57041, 0.57069
What it said to watch
Close back above the 0.5704 Friday high and 0.5707 session high negates the false-break read
Failure to hold the 0.5695 session low (50% retrace) exposes the 0.5683 Friday low
Thin Asia session liquidity; Tue 12:30 UTC US durable goods sets pre-FOMC tone
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC (hike to 3.00% forecast) could materially shift this read
False break above Friday high, lower high at 0.5701.
The Asia open gapped about 5 pips lower, then spiked to a session high at 0.5707, above the Friday high at 0.5704. That move failed back under 0.5700, leaving a false break and a lower high at 0.5701. Price is holding the session low at 0.5695, the 50% level of the NY rally fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 48 and the market coiled in thin trade ahead of Wednesday's RBNZ decision.
Support: 0.56953, 0.56829
Resistance: 0.57012, 0.57041, 0.57069
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5695 session low exposes the 0.5683 Friday low
Reclaim of the 0.5701 lower high, then a close above the 0.5707 session high, negates the false-break read
Friday high at 0.5704 is the pivot between rejection and acceptance above 0.5700
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC (f/c hike to 3.00%) is the main catalyst and could keep ranges compressed until then
Lower highs off session high, price testing gap low.
Monday's early Asia session opened with a small gap down and filled it, then pushed through the friday high at 0.5704 to a session high of 0.5707 before being rejected. Price has since retraced about 80% of the move along a line of lower highs and sits just above the gap low near 0.5694. RSI(14) is neutral at 46 and ATR runs under 4 pips in thin weekend-open liquidity, with the market coiled under the 0.5700 round number ahead of Wednesday's RBNZ decision.
Support: 0.56945, 0.56889
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.57041, 0.57069
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5694 gap low exposes the fri ny low at 0.5689
A reclaim of the 0.5700 round number and the friday high at 0.5704 would invalidate the false break read
A break of the lower highs line from the 0.5707 session high would neutralise the pullback structure
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC is the main event risk; intraday ranges likely stay compressed until then
00:03 UTC
Short-term range near 0.5700, upside rejected · RSI 54 · price 0.57008
False break above Friday high, holding above Asia low.
The Monday Asia session gapped down to 0.5695. It then ran through Friday's high at 0.5704 to an Asia high of 0.5707, but the move was rejected back to the 0.5696 Asia low, so the break failed. Price is now rebuilding at 0.5700 in thin early trade. RSI(14) is neutral at 54, and RBNZ pricing is keeping the 0.5700 handle in focus.
Support: 0.56964, 0.56949, 0.56829
Resistance: 0.57041, 0.57069
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.5707 Asia high would negate the false break at Friday's high.
Failure to hold the 0.5696 Asia low exposes the 50% fib at 0.5695, then Friday's low at 0.5683.
US Durable Goods (Tue 12:30 UTC) and the RBNZ decision (Wed 01:00 UTC) could materially shift this read.