NZD/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the NZD/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Range-bound, upper half of Friday's range · RSI 51 · price 0.56993
Weekly open gap filled, false break of Friday high.
Early Asia session opened with a small gap down to 0.5695 that filled fast. The spike to an open high of 0.5707 cleared the Friday high at 0.5704 but was rejected straight back to a session low of 0.5696, near the 38.2% fib of the Friday-low rally. Price is flat near 0.5699 with RSI(14) neutral at 51 and ATR around 3.5 pips, typical of thin open liquidity ahead of Wednesday's RBNZ decision.
Support: 0.56964, 0.56945, 0.56829
Resistance: 0.57041, 0.57069
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5704 fri high turns the false break into a breakout toward the 0.5707 open high
Failure to hold the 0.5696 session low exposes the 0.5695 gap low, then the 0.5683 fri low
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC (f/c hike to 3.00%) could materially shift this read; positioning into it may tighten ranges
Sunday open gap filled, then a false break above Friday high and a pullback.
The early Asia open gapped about 5 pips below Friday's 0.5700 close. Price then rallied to a 0.5707 session high, a false break above the 0.5704 Friday high that was rejected back under the 0.5700 round number. Price is holding the 0.5696 swing low near the 61.8% fib, between EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) neutral at 47, as NZD stays coiled under 0.5700 into Wednesday's RBNZ.
Support: 0.56964, 0.56943
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.57041, 0.57069
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5700 round number and the 0.5704 Friday high reopens the 0.5707 session high
Failure to hold the 0.5696 swing low exposes the 0.5694 gap open and a full retrace of the session rally
Thin early-Asia liquidity, ATR ~3 pips; Tuesday's US data and Wednesday's RBNZ decision (f/c hike to 3.00%) are the next structural catalysts
Asia session opened Monday with a ~5-pip gap lower to 0.5695. Price then pushed through the 0.5704 friday high to a 0.5707 session high, but the move was rejected and price slipped back under the 0.5700 round number. It now sits near the 38.2% of the NY rally fib, with RSI(14) neutral at 47 and thin pre-RBNZ trade.
Support: 0.56945, 0.5683
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.57041, 0.57069
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.57041 friday high negates the false-break read and puts the 0.57069 session high back in play
Failure to hold the 0.56945 gap low (near the 50% of the NY rally fib) fills the gap and exposes the 0.5683 london low
Rejection or acceptance at the 0.5700 round number sets the tone for the rest of the Asian range
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC (hike to 3.00% expected, a hold is the bigger tail) could materially shift this read
The weekly open gapped about 5 pips lower to a 0.5695 gap low. Thin early Asia session flows filled it within an hour and cleared Friday's 0.5704 high to print a 0.5707 session high. Price is consolidating just above the 0.5700 psych level, with RSI(14) near 57 and ATR around 3 pips. That keeps the push measured as NZD coils into Wednesday's RBNZ decision.
Support: 0.57026, 0.5700, 0.56945
Resistance: 0.57069, 0.5710
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5703 swing low and then 0.5700 psych would put price back inside Friday's range
A close above the 0.5707 session high exposes the 0.5710 month high
A slide back to the 0.5695 gap low lines up with the 50% retracement of the Friday rally fib
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC (f/c hike to 3.00%) is the main risk, and pre-positioning could widen ranges from Tuesday
Weekly-open gap filled, Friday high broken, higher low at 0.5694.
The weekly open gapped about 5 pips lower to the 0.5694 gap low, which held near the 50% retracement of the move from Friday's 0.5683 low. Price has since reclaimed psych 0.5700 and cleared the friday high at 0.5704 to a 0.5707 session high. Early-Asia liquidity is thin and the break is untested ahead of Wednesday's RBNZ decision, where a hike is largely priced.
Support: 0.5704, 0.5700, 0.5694
Resistance: 0.5707, 0.5710
What it said to watch
Holding above the friday high at 0.5704 keeps the breakout intact; a slip back under psych 0.5700 would read as a false break on thin opening liquidity
The 0.5707 session high and the 0.5710 1-month high are the next caps; an M15 close above 0.5710 extends the breakout
Loss of the 0.5694 gap low, the 50% retracement of the friday low-high leg, breaks the higher-low sequence
RBNZ decision Wed Oct 28 01:00 UTC and Tuesday's US data block could materially shift this read
Gap-fill rally broke Friday high; HH/HL from 0.5683 London low.
The week opened with a 5-pip gap lower at the 0.56945 weekly open, which filled within the first hour. Early Asia then pushed through the 0.57041 Friday high to a 0.57069 session high on thin liquidity. Price is now sitting just under the 0.5710 month high flagged in the RBNZ-week digest, with the round number at 0.5700 and the weekly open (50% fib) below.
Support: 0.57041, 0.5700, 0.56945
Resistance: 0.57069, 0.5710
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.57041 Friday high would turn the breakout into a false break
Acceptance above the 0.57069 session high and the 0.5710 month high extends the HH chain
Loss of the 0.5700 round number exposes the 0.56945 weekly open at the 50% fib
Thin Asia liquidity; RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC (f/c hike to 3.00%) is the next major catalyst for this structure
Higher lows from London low; weekly-open gap filled, retesting 0.5704.
The weekly open gapped 5 pips lower to the 0.5694 gap low and filled within the hour. The 22:00 UTC bar printed 0.57034, just shy of the 0.5704 Friday high. Friday's NY pullback held near the 38.2% fib of the London-low rally, and price now sits on the 0.5700 round number in thin early-Asia trade.
Support: 0.5700, 0.56945, 0.56831
Resistance: 0.57041, 0.5710
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5704 Friday high exposes the 0.5710 one-month high
Loss of 0.5695 (gap low / 38.2% fib) breaks the higher-low chain and the rising support from the London low
Sunday-open liquidity is thin, so early moves around the 0.5700 round number may not hold into Asia session
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC is the main structural risk for this pair this week
22:04 UTC
Sideways under 0.5700 after Friday's NY rally · RSI 46 · price 0.56973
Higher low at 0.5695 intact, capped below 0.5700–0.5704.
Friday's NY rally ran from the 0.5683 London base to a 0.5704 Friday high, and the pullback held the 0.5695 swing low near the 38.2% retrace. The Sunday reopen gapped about 5 pips lower into that swing low and has since recovered toward the 0.5700 psych level in thin early-Asia trade. RSI is neutral at 46 and the pair is coiled ahead of Wednesday's RBNZ decision.
Support: 0.56945, 0.5683
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.57041
What it said to watch
M15 closes above the 0.5700 psych level and the 0.5704 Friday high would break the cap from Friday's NY session
Failure to hold the 0.5695 swing low would confirm a lower low and expose the 0.5683 London base
Thin Asia session liquidity after the weekend gap; ranges may stay compressed near the 2.5-pip ATR
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC (hike to 3.00% expected) could materially shift this read
21:47 UTC
Flat, mild pullback from Friday's NY high · RSI 41 · price 0.5696
Weekend gap down, holding Friday's late 0.5695–0.5704 range.
Early Asia opened the week with a 5-pip gap down to the 0.5694 open low from Friday's 0.5700 close. Price is sitting on the 38.2% retrace of Friday's NY rally from the 0.5683 london low to the 0.5704 friday high, just under EMA20 and at EMA50 with RSI(14) near 41. Soft NZ CPI has kept price capped under 0.5700.
Support: 0.5694, 0.5691, 0.5683
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.5704
What it said to watch
A gap fill through 0.5700 puts the 0.5704 friday high back in play
Failure to hold the 0.5694 open low exposes the fib 61.8 at 0.5691, then the 0.5683 london low
Thin early-week liquidity; RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC are the main event risks
21:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalled, gapped lower at open · RSI 41 · price 0.56949
Friday higher high to 0.5704, then 0.5695–0.5702 range; Sunday gap to range base.
Sunday's thin early-Asia open gapped about 5 pips below the 0.56996 friday close. Price sits at 0.5695, between the 38.2% and 50% retrace of Friday's NY rally from the 0.5683 london base to the 0.5704 ny high, with RSI(14) near 41 and price under both EMAs. The soft NZ Q3 CPI kept the 0.5700 area capping late Friday.
Support: 0.56943, 0.56889, 0.56831
Resistance: 0.56996, 0.57041
What it said to watch
Gap fill back to the 0.56996 friday close would put the 0.57041 ny high back in play
Loss of the 0.56943 gap low exposes the 0.56889 ny dip low and the 61.8% of the NY rally fib near 0.5691
Break below the 0.56831 london base unwinds Friday's whole NY rally
RBNZ decision Wed Oct 28 01:00 UTC (hike to 3.00% expected) and the FOMC later Wed could materially shift this read
Weekend gap lower, sitting on Friday's NY pullback low.
The week opened in thin early Asia with a 5-pip gap below the 0.56996 Friday close. Price is at 0.5695, the Friday NY pullback low and roughly the 50% retrace of the NY rally from the 0.5683 London low to the 0.5704 Friday high. Supply has capped 0.5700 since the soft NZ CPI, and RSI(14) at 41 with price under both EMAs shows no momentum either way.
Support: 0.56949, 0.56889, 0.56829
Resistance: 0.56996, 0.57041
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5695 ny pullback exposes the 0.5689 ny dip low, then the 0.5683 london low
Reclaiming the 0.56996 friday close fills the gap and puts the 0.5704 friday high back in play
Asia-session liquidity is thin, so ranges near 2 pips per bar are not a reliable read until London
RBNZ decision Wed Oct 28 01:00 UTC and FOMC later Wed could materially shift this read
Higher low at 0.5695 after the NY high at 0.5704; compressing just under 0.5700 into the Friday close.
The dip on Friday's US PMI beat was absorbed at 0.5689. NY then broke the 0.5699 Asian high and printed a session high at 0.5704. The pullback held the 0.5695 NY swing low, near the 38.2% of the London low–NY high leg, and the late high at 0.5702 capped the close, with RSI(14) near 55 and ATR around 2.4 pips.
Support: 0.56949, 0.56829
Resistance: 0.57023, 0.57041
What it said to watch
Reopen below the 0.5695 NY swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and the rising support from the London low
Sustained trade above the 0.5702 late high and 0.5704 session high extends the NY breakout; repeated rejection keeps the 0.5695–0.5704 consolidation in place
Loss of the 0.5683 London low unwinds the full day's advance
RBNZ decision on Oct 28 at 01:00 UTC and the Fed decision later in the week could materially shift this read; a hold or cautious RBNZ framing is the main downside event risk