The Q3 CPI miss produced a spike to the 0.5710 week high, then a reversal to the 0.5668 Thursday low (thu low) by London hours. From there NY sessions carved a higher-low trendline, with the Friday low at 0.5683 holding. Price is back above 0.5700 and the 0.5694 weekly open after the Sunday open, sitting above EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 63, but supply has capped every approach to 0.5704–0.5710 this week.
Support: 0.56943, 0.56831, 0.56678
Resistance: 0.57069, 0.57102
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5710 week high breaks the range top and the CPI-day false break
Rejection at the 0.5707 sunday high keeps the 0.5700–0.5710 cap intact
Loss of the 0.5694 weekly open, near the 38.2% rally fib from the thu low, puts the higher-low trendline and 0.5683 friday low in focus
Failure at 0.5668 thu low turns the range into a lower-low sequence
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC (hike to 3.00% expected) could materially shift this read
US data Tue and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC are a second volatility source
The 0.5710 week high was rejected after Wednesday's soft NZ CPI print. Selling ran through Thursday's Asia and London sessions into the 0.5668 range low by the NY open. Friday's NY-session rally off the 0.5683 friday base retraced most of that drop but stalled at the 0.5704 friday high, a lower high under the range top. Price sits above EMA(20) and the 0.5695 weekly open after a quiet Sunday open, with RSI(14) near 64 and ATR compressed to about 6 pips.
Support: 0.56945, 0.56831, 0.56678
Resistance: 0.57041, 0.57102
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5710 week high breaks the range top and the lower-highs line
Failure to hold the 0.5695 weekly open/EMA(20) exposes the friday base near 0.5683, close to the 50% retrace of Friday's rally
Break below the 0.5668 range low invalidates the range read and confirms a lower low
RBNZ decision Wed Oct 28 01:00 UTC (f/c hike to 3.00%) could materially shift this read; a hold carries the larger downside tail
US Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence Tue, then FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC, add USD-side risk
21:04 UTC
Recovering, capped under week high · RSI 60 · price 0.56996
Range 0.5668–0.5710 since Wednesday, compressing.
The rally from Tuesday's 0.5655 open topped at the 0.5710 week high early Thursday. The soft Q3 CPI print then triggered a rejection that ran into the Thursday low at 0.5668 during NY hours. Friday's NY session retraced the drop to the 0.5704 friday high and closed just under 0.5700 above the ema20, with RSI(14) near 60. The window ends with a higher low at 0.5683 against slightly lower highs, tightening the range.
Support: 0.5695, 0.5683, 0.5668
Resistance: 0.5704, 0.5710
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5710 week high breaks the range top
Loss of the 0.5683 higher low and the ema20 near 0.5695 returns focus to the 0.5668 thursday low
RBNZ decision Wed Oct 28 01:00 UTC (hike to 3.00% expected) could materially shift this read
Fed decision Wed Oct 28 18:00 UTC and Tuesday's US durable goods and confidence data add USD-side event risk