0.5668–0.5710 range; lower high at 0.5691 below a failed 0.5700 handle.
Monday held near 0.5700 through Asia, then broke lower from the London open as USD demand built ahead of Wednesday's FOMC. The NY session extended the drop to the Monday low at 0.5670, just above last week's prior low at 0.5668. The bounce stalled at a rebound high of 0.5691, close to the 61.8% retrace of Monday's drop, and price now sits below EMA(20) at 0.5685 and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 0.56696, 0.56678
Resistance: 0.5685, 0.56913, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close below 0.5668 (prior low) and the 0.5670 Monday low breaks the week's range floor
Reclaiming EMA(20) and closing above the 0.5691 rebound high reopens the 0.5700 cap, which has stalled price for four sessions
RBNZ decision Oct 28 01:00 UTC (~26h; hike ~90% priced) could materially shift this read
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC and Tue US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC are the USD-side risks to the range
0.5668–0.5710 range, lower highs compressing onto the range low.
The kiwi was rejected at the 0.5710 month high early Thursday after the soft Q3 CPI, and Monday's Asia push to 0.5707 faded from the London open into a NY-open drop to the 0.5669 range low. The bounce stalled at 0.5691, between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of Monday's drop, leaving another lower high, while a firmer USD before the Fed keeps price under the ema20 near 0.5685. RSI(14) near 43 shows momentum leaning lower inside the range, but demand has held 0.5668–0.5670 three times this week.
Support: 0.5669, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5685, 0.5691, 0.5710
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5669 range low breaks the week's base and opens the 0.5650 psych level
Reclaiming the ema20 and the 0.5691 lower high would neutralise the lower-high sequence
RBNZ decision and MPS Wed 01:00 UTC: the rate track could decide whether the 0.5710 month high or the range low gives way
US Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC and the Fed on Wed 18:00 UTC could shift the USD side of the read
0.5668–0.5710 range since Wednesday, lower highs on Monday.
NZDUSD has been boxed in a 0.5668–0.5710 range since Wednesday. The 0.5710 range top printed just after the soft Q3 CPI miss and was rejected again in Monday's Asia push to 0.5707. London and the NY open drove Monday's slide back to the range low, retesting Thursday's 0.5668 trough, and the rebound stalled near the 61.8% of the Monday drop. Price now sits below the ema20 and the 0.5695 weekly open with RSI(14) near 41, under a sequence of Monday lower highs.
Support: 0.5668, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5687, 0.56945, 0.5710
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 0.5668 range low confirms a range break and exposes the 0.5650 psych area
Reclaim of the ema20 and weekly open at 0.5695 breaks the Monday lower highs and returns focus to the range top
RBNZ decision and MPS Wed 01:00 UTC (~28h) could materially shift this read; a hike is largely priced, so the guidance matters more than the hike
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC and Tuesday's US Durable Goods/Consumer Confidence may move the USD side of the range
NZD/USD has been held in a 0.5670–0.5710 range since Wednesday's soft Q3 CPI pushed it off the 0.5710 month high. Monday's 0.5707 Asia high printed a lower high, and a firmer USD then dragged the pair down through London into NY, where the range low near 0.5670 drew a second rejection after Thursday's test. Price has bounced to the 38.2% fib of Monday's drop. It is still below the ema20 near 0.5688, which lines up with the 50% level, and below EMA(50) near 0.5690, with RSI(14) around 39.
Support: 0.56838, 0.5670
Resistance: 0.5688, 0.5700, 0.5710
What it said to watch
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC (~32h): guidance on further hikes could resolve the 0.5670–0.5710 range
H1 close below the 0.5670 range low breaks the post-CPI range and confirms a lower-low
Recovery above the ema20 / 50% fib near 0.5688 reopens the 0.5700 pivot, which is also the weekly open area
A close above the lower-highs trendline and the 0.5710 month high invalidates the range read
US durable goods Tue 12:30 UTC and the FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC are the USD-side risks
Lower highs since Monday's Asia peak, now testing the post-CPI range base.
Monday's Asia push to 0.5707 met rejection below last week's 0.5710 week high. A steady run of lower highs through London and into the NY open has since erased Friday's rebound, taking price under the weekly open at 0.5695 and the 0.5685 london shelf to a 0.5670 session low, just above Thursday's low at 0.5668. Price sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50), and RSI(14) near 27 is the weakest reading of the window as the USD firms into the Fed, leaving the post-CPI 0.5668–0.5710 range intact but under test at its base.
Support: 0.56696, 0.56678
Resistance: 0.5685, 0.56945, 0.57102
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5668 thursday low breaks the post-CPI range and exposes the ~0.5650 origin of last week's rally
Recovery back above the 0.5685 london shelf and the weekly open at 0.5695 would return the read to mid-range
A break of the line of lower highs off Monday's Asia peak would end the intraday decline structure
US Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC and the RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC (~35h) could materially shift this read
NZD/USD has held a 0.5668–0.5710 range since Wednesday. The 0.5700 range top capped attempts on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, and again in Monday's Asian session, as the RBNZ-hike rally stalled after the soft Q3 CPI print. From London open, price slipped back below the 0.56945 weekly open and the flat ema cluster near 0.5692, testing the 0.5678 session low at the 61.8% retracement of the Thursday–Monday rally. Rising lows from Thursday's 0.5668 week low are still intact, and RSI(14) near 37 is soft but not oversold.
Support: 0.5678, 0.56678, 0.5650
Resistance: 0.5692, 0.5700, 0.57102
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5678 session low breaks the rising lows line and exposes the 0.5668 week low
Failure to hold 0.5668 opens the 0.5650 breakout base flagged in the digest
Recovery above the 0.5692 ema cluster and the weekly open returns the focus to the 0.5700 range top
Acceptance above the 0.5710 one-month high invalidates the range read
US durable goods Tue 12:30 UTC, then RBNZ Wed 01:00 UTC and Fed Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
0.5668–0.5710 weekly range; Monday lower highs from 0.5707 into a test of the 61.8% fib.
NZDUSD has rotated inside a 0.5668–0.5710 range all week. The rebound from Thursday's NY-session week low stalled at 0.5707 in Monday's Asia session, just under the month high that marks the range top, as USD shorts were trimmed into the Fed. The London open sell-off took price back below the EMA(20) and the 0.56945 weekly open, with RSI(14) down near 31 as price tests the 61.8% fib of the Thursday–Monday advance at 0.5683.
Support: 0.56827, 0.56712, 0.56678
Resistance: 0.56931, 0.56945, 0.57102
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 61.8% fib at 0.5683 exposes the Friday low at 0.5671 and the week low at 0.5668
Recovery back above the EMA(20) and the weekly open near 0.5694 restores the mid-range read
Acceptance above the 0.5710 month high breaks the range top
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; US durable goods Tue 12:30 UTC is the nearer USD risk
11:58 UTC
Range-bound, pulling back from range top · RSI 37 · price 0.56858
0.5668–0.5710 range; higher lows since Oct 22, lower highs at the top.
NZDUSD stalled again at the range top, with the Monday high at 0.5707 sitting just under the 0.5710 Oct 22 high that capped the post-CPI spike. The London session open brought a 12-pip drop as USD shorts were trimmed into this week's FOMC, taking price back below EMA(20) and the 0.5695 weekly open with RSI(14) near 37. The pullback is testing the higher lows line from the Oct 22 low, and the Friday low at 0.5683 lines up with the 61.8% retrace of the Oct 22–Monday leg.
Support: 0.56829, 0.56678
Resistance: 0.56945, 0.57069, 0.57102
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5683 friday low and the 61.8% retrace breaks the higher lows sequence and exposes the oct 22 low at 0.5668
Recovery above the 0.5695 weekly open and EMA(20) puts the range top back in play, with the monday high at 0.5707 and the oct 22 high at 0.5710 overhead
US durable goods Tue 12:30 UTC, RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
0.5668–0.5710 range; repeated rejection at the range top, rising lows still intact.
Since Thursday's Asia-session week high at 0.5710, the range top has rejected the pair three more times, at 0.5704 on Friday's NY session and 0.5707 in Monday's Asian range. The Q3 CPI miss and firmer US yields keep the 0.5700 psych area capping. The London open broke the Asian range, and price slid to a 0.5685 session low below EMA(20) at 0.5695. That puts it at the 50% retracement of the Thursday–Monday rise, with RSI(14) down to 39. Rising lows from the 0.5668 week low through the 0.5683 Friday low are still intact, and the session low sits on that line.
Support: 0.56848, 0.56831, 0.56678
Resistance: 0.56954, 0.5700, 0.57102
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5683 friday low (61.8% of the thu-mon rise) breaks the rising lows and exposes the 0.5668 week low
Recovery above ema20 at 0.5695 and the 0.5700 psych level reopens a test of the range top at 0.5707–0.5710
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC (~40h): hike to 3.00% is priced, so guidance tone could materially shift this read
US Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC and the Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC drive the USD leg
08:03 UTC
Range-bound, rolling over from the 0.5700 cap · RSI 41 · price 0.56894
0.5668–0.5710 weekly range; repeated failure at the top, now back mid-range.
NZD/USD has held a 0.5668–0.5710 range all week. The 0.5700–0.5710 band capped Wednesday's NY push, Thursday's Asia-session spike to the 0.5710 week high, Friday's NY rally and Monday's Asian-session high at 0.5707. In the hour before London open today, a 12-pip bar broke the Asian range and the weekly open at 0.5695, put price below EMA(20) and EMA(50), and stalled at the 50% fib of the Thursday-to-Monday rally near 0.5687, with RSI(14) slipping to about 41 as the market waits on the RBNZ and Fed.
Support: 0.56874, 0.56829, 0.56678
Resistance: 0.56945, 0.5698, 0.57102
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 0.5683 friday low takes out the 61.8% fib area and exposes the 0.5668 week low
A recovery back above the weekly open and ema20 at 0.5695–0.5698 restores the upper-range read
A sustained break of the 0.5710 week high would end the range; per the digest that likely needs hawkish RBNZ guidance
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC (~41h): a hold or dovish hike puts 0.5650 in view per the digest
US durable goods Tue 12:30 UTC and the Fed Wed 18:00 UTC drive the USD leg
07:05 UTC
Sideways, lows rising under the 0.5710 cap · RSI 53 · price 0.56993
Compression: higher lows into a flat 0.5700–0.5710 ceiling.
The soft NZ Q3 CPI print late Wednesday saw the pair tag the 0.5710 week high, then sell off to a NY-session low at 0.5668 on Thursday. Lows have stepped higher since. Thursday's 0.5668 was followed by a 0.5683 Friday low, and Monday dipped only to 0.5694 at the weekly open, which matches the 61.8% retrace of Thursday's drop. Price is now pinned at the 0.5700 psych handle with a flat EMA(20) near 0.5698 and RSI(14) neutral at 53, while the 0.5707 Monday high and the 0.5710 week high cap the top as positioning consolidates ahead of the RBNZ.
Support: 0.5698, 0.56945, 0.5683
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.5707, 0.5710
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5710 week high breaks the range top and the 0.5707 Monday high cap
Loss of the 0.5694 weekly open and the higher-lows line exposes the 0.5683 Friday low
Repeated H1 closes below the ema20 at 0.5698 would signal the compression rolling over
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
US Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence Tue 12:30–14:00 UTC, during NY hours
Higher lows since Thursday's low, compression below 0.5705–0.5710.
The post-CPI spike to the 0.5710 month high faded through Thursday's London and NY sessions to a 0.5668 week low after the Q3 miss. Higher lows at 0.5671 and the 0.5683 Friday low have since lifted price back to the 78.6% retracement of Thursday's decline near 0.5701. Monday's Asia session opened slightly below Friday's close at the 0.5694 weekly open. Price is now pinned between that open and the 0.5707 Monday high, with marginally lower highs, EMA(20) flat at 0.5699, RSI(14) in the mid-50s and hourly ranges compressing ahead of the RBNZ.
Support: 0.56945, 0.56829, 0.56678
Resistance: 0.57069, 0.57102
What it said to watch
H1 acceptance above the 0.5710 month high breaks the lower-highs line and the Thursday range
Failure to hold the 0.5694 weekly open puts the 0.5683 Friday low and the higher-lows trendline back in focus
A break below 0.5668, the week low, undoes the recovery structure since Thursday
US Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC could test the 0.5700 cap via yields
RBNZ decision and MPS Wed 01:00 UTC (~43h) could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 0.5668 under lower highs from 0.5710; tightening range.
Thursday's post-CPI spike to the 0.5710 week high reversed through London and NY to the 0.5668 week low, but lows since have stepped higher: 0.5671 in Friday Asia, then the 0.5683 friday low. Friday's NY session carried price back to the 0.5700 psych handle, and Monday's Asian session probed a 0.5707 monday high before slipping back, leaving a lower-high line from 0.5710 pressing on the higher-low line. Price is sitting just above ema20 near 0.5698 with RSI(14) around 54 as NZD consolidates into Wednesday's RBNZ decision, where a 25bp hike is largely priced.
Support: 0.5698, 0.5683, 0.5668
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.5707, 0.5710
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5710 week high breaks the lower-high line and the late-week cap
Loss of the 0.5683 friday low breaks the higher-low line and reopens the 0.5668 week low
Holding above the 38.2% recovery fib near 0.5692 keeps the compression intact
US Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC are pre-RBNZ and post-RBNZ USD risk
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC (~46h): a hold against ~80% hike pricing, or cautious guidance on a hike, could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Thursday's week low, lower highs capping under 0.5710.
The soft Q3 CPI print knocked NZDUSD off the 0.5710 week high in Thursday's Asia session, and the slide extended through London to the 0.5668 week low before a steady recovery of higher lows carried price back to 0.5704 into Friday's NY session. Monday's Asia session opened near 0.5695, the weekly open, and pushed to a 0.5707 Monday high, with price now holding just above the 0.5700 handle and above EMA(20) and EMA(50). RSI(14) near 55 and ATR(14) around 6 pips reflect compression under the lower highs ahead of the RBNZ decision.
Support: 0.5695, 0.5683, 0.5668
Resistance: 0.5707, 0.5710
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5710 week high breaks the lower-highs sequence and clears the one-month high
Loss of the 0.5695 weekly open and the higher-low trendline would put the 0.5683 higher low in focus
Break below the 0.5683 higher low exposes the 0.5668 week low and the deeper fib retracement
Monday high at 0.5707 is the first area to watch for rejection or break
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC (~46h) is the main catalyst for this range; Tuesday US Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence plus Wednesday's FOMC also in play
03:04 UTC
Rebound from week low, capped under 0.5710 · RSI 58 · price 0.57019
Higher lows pressing a flat 0.5700–0.5710 cap.
The post-CPI spike to the 0.57102 week high in Thursday's Asia session reversed through London and NY to a 0.56678 low as the miss trimmed RBNZ hike pricing. The rebound from that low has printed a series of rising lows since Friday's NY session. Price now sits just above EMA(20) near 0.5698 and the weekly open at 0.56945, with Monday's Asia high at 0.57069 marking a third test of the 0.5700–0.5710 band; RSI(14) near 58 and ATR(14) around 5.6 pips reflect a compressed coil ahead of the RBNZ.
Support: 0.5698, 0.56945, 0.56829
Resistance: 0.57069, 0.57102
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.57102 week high would break the 0.5700–0.5710 cap that has held since Thursday
Loss of the weekly open and the rising lows line near 0.5695 shifts focus to the 0.56829 Friday low, close to the 61.8% rebound retracement
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC (f/c hike to 3.00%); a hold or dovish one-and-done guidance could materially shift this read
US Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence Tue 12:30–14:00 UTC, then FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC, add USD-side event risk
The soft NZ CPI print knocked price back from the 0.5710 month high, and Thursday's selling bottomed at the 0.5668 week low in early NY. Every session since has printed a higher low along a rising line, and Friday's NY session lifted price back to the 0.5700 round number. Monday's Asia session reached a 0.5707 monday high, met rejection and slipped back to 0.5699, holding above EMA(20) near 0.5696 and the 0.5695 week open. RSI(14) sits around 56 and ATR has compressed toward 6 pips ahead of the RBNZ decision.
Support: 0.56945, 0.5683, 0.56678
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.57069, 0.57102
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 0.5710 month high breaks the range top that has capped price since Thursday.
Failure to hold the week open at 0.5695 and the higher lows line exposes the 0.5683 friday low. The Thu-Mon fib 38.2% sits near 0.5692.
A break below the 0.5668 week low would turn the higher-low sequence into a lower-low.
US Durable Goods (Tue 12:30 UTC) and RBNZ (Wed 01:00 UTC, f/c hike to 3.00%) could materially shift this read. A hold or a dovish hike is the larger tail.
Wednesday's soft NZ CPI print produced a brief spike to the 0.5710 week high, which was rejected and unwound through Thursday's Asia and London sessions to the 0.5668 swing low. Since then the pair has carved higher lows, at the 0.5683 Friday low and 0.5694 on Monday's open, back into the 0.5700–0.5710 range top. Price holds above the ema20 near 0.5697 and EMA(50) with RSI(14) around 63, while the Monday high at 0.5707 in the Asian session sits just under the week high.
Support: 0.5697, 0.56829, 0.56678
Resistance: 0.57069, 0.57102
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5710 week high clears the range top and completes the CPI drop fib retracement
Loss of the ema20 near 0.5697 and the higher-lows trendline puts the 0.5683 friday low back in focus
Break below the 0.5668 swing low would undo the post-CPI recovery structure
Repeated failure at the 0.5707 monday high and 0.5710 keeps the range-top cap intact
RBNZ decision Wed 28 Oct 01:00 UTC (f/c hike to 3.00%) could materially shift this read; US durable goods Tue 12:30 UTC is the earlier USD risk
Range 0.5668–0.5710 since Thursday, higher lows into Monday.
The post-CPI drop from Thursday's 0.5710 month high to the 0.5668 swing low has been about three-quarters retraced. The recovery came on a run of higher lows, led by Friday's NY session push off the 0.5683 friday base. Price holds above EMA(20) near 0.5696 and the 0.5695 week open, with RSI(14) in the low 60s. Twin highs at 0.5704 (Wednesday and Friday) and the month high continue to cap, and Monday's Asia-session poke to 0.5707 met rejection back toward 0.5700.
Support: 0.56945, 0.56835, 0.56678
Resistance: 0.57044, 0.57102
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5710 month high breaks the range top in place since Thursday's CPI reaction
Loss of the 0.5695 week open and EMA(20) exposes the 0.5683 friday base and the higher-lows line
Break below the 0.5668 swing low ends the higher-low sequence and reopens the range floor
RBNZ decision Wed 28 Oct 01:00 UTC (f/c hike to 3.00%) and Tuesday's US data could materially shift this read