21:08 UTC
Downtrend since August, rebound stalling at EMA50 · RSI 55 · price 0.57002
Lower highs and lower lows from the 0.5988 August high; mid-October base broke higher.
NZDUSD has posted lower highs and lower lows since the Aug 21 high at 0.5988, bottoming at the 0.5565 Oct 14 low after a two-week base capped near 0.5650. A break of that range top and of the falling trendline from August drove a five-session rally to a one-month high at 0.5710, but the soft Q3 NZ CPI miss stalled the move just under the EMA50 near 0.5706 and the 38.2% fib at 0.5727. Price has held between 0.5670 and 0.5710 for the past week, back above a turning ema20 at 0.5667 with RSI near 55, the first recovery attempt since August inside the broader downtrend.
Support: 0.5667, 0.5650, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5710, 0.5727, 0.5750
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 0.5710 1m high and EMA50 opens the 38.2% fib at 0.5727 and the 0.5750 September lower high
- Failure to hold the ema20 and the 0.5650 range top returns focus to the 0.5565 Oct 14 low
- RBNZ decision and MPS Wed Oct 28 01:00 UTC: guidance toward further hikes versus a hold could materially shift this read
- Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC plus US PCE and Q3 GDP later in the week are the main USD-side risk to the EMA50 test