0.5668–0.5708 range since last Thursday; rejection from range top Tuesday.
NZDUSD has rotated inside a 0.5668–0.5708 range since last Thursday. Tuesday's London-to-NY push printed the 0.5708 week high at the range top, then met rejection after the strong US durables beat and slid back through the ema20 during NY hours. Price now sits near 0.5681, below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 42, having given back about 70% of the Tue rally fib off Monday's 0.5670 week low; the day low at 0.5677 is the nearest floor above the range floor and prior low at 0.5668.
Support: 0.56766, 0.56696, 0.56678
Resistance: 0.5688, 0.5700, 0.57075
What it said to watch
RBNZ decision and MPS at 01:00 GMT Wed (~2h) could materially shift this read; the OCR track matters more than the fully priced hike
H1 close back above the ema20 at 0.5688 and the 0.5700 round number reopens a test of the 0.5708 week high and range top
Failure to hold the 0.5670 week low and 0.5668 prior low breaks the range floor
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC is a second event risk inside the next session
0.5668–0.5710 range; fourth rejection at range top.
NZDUSD has been boxed in a 0.5668–0.5710 range across the window, with the range top capping Thursday's, Monday's and Tuesday's tests. Tuesday's rally off 0.5671 ran through Asia and London to a week high at 0.5708 near the NY open, then faded through NY hours as USD demand built ahead of the Fed. Most of that rally has since retraced, leaving price below EMA(20) near 0.5688 with RSI(14) around 43 as the pair sits just above the session low at 0.5677 into the RBNZ.
Support: 0.56766, 0.56696, 0.56678
Resistance: 0.5688, 0.5700, 0.57075
What it said to watch
RBNZ decision at 01:00 GMT (~3h): guidance and OCR track could materially shift this read
H1 close back above the 0.5700 psych level and the week high at 0.5708 would put the range top under pressure
Failure to hold the week low at 0.5670 and the range floor at 0.5668 would break the range
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC could reverse any post-RBNZ move
0.5670–0.5710 horizontal range; four failed tests of top.
NZDUSD has spent four sessions boxed between the range low near 0.5670 (Thursday's low 0.5668, Monday's 0.5670) and the range top at 0.5708–0.5710, with every push through the 0.5700 cap failing within a bar or two and the 0.5710 month high untouched. Tuesday's rally from the 0.5671 rollover low peaked at 0.5708 in early NY, then strong US Durable Goods and CB Confidence data lifted the dollar and unwound nearly 79% of the move back to 0.5680. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 0.5690 with RSI(14) at 40, in the lower half of the range into the RBNZ decision.
Support: 0.5670, 0.56678
Resistance: 0.5690, 0.5700, 0.57102
What it said to watch
RBNZ decision at 01:00 GMT Wed: a hawkish OCR track could force a fifth test of the 0.5700 cap, while a cautious tone or hold puts the range low in play
H1 close above the 0.5710 month high would end the range top rejection streak
H1 close below the range low at 0.5670 and Thursday's low at 0.5668 breaks the four-day range
Reclaim of EMA(20) near 0.5690 needed to lift price back into the upper half of the range
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift the read after the RBNZ
20:04 UTC
Range-bound, momentum fading from range top · RSI 44 · price 0.56851
0.5669–0.5710 range since Thursday; flat highs capping, lows holding.
NZDUSD has held a 0.5669–0.5710 range since Thursday. The 0.5700 round number and the range top have capped four sessions, most recently Tuesday's push to 0.57075 during the London-NY transition, which faded through NY hours to a 0.5682 NY low. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 0.5690, at the 61.8% retracement of Tuesday's rally, with RSI(14) at 44, as USD demand ahead of the Fed offsets near-fully-priced RBNZ hike bets.
Support: 0.5682, 0.5669
Resistance: 0.5690, 0.5700, 0.5710
What it said to watch
RBNZ decision and MPS at 01:00 GMT Wed, about 5h out, could materially shift this read; a surprise hold or dovish guidance puts the range low in play
H1 close above the 0.5710 range top breaks the four-session cap at the round number
Failure to hold the 0.5682 NY low exposes the 0.5669 range low; a close below it would mark a range break
Recovery back above EMA(20) at 0.5690 would neutralise Tuesday's NY-session fade
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC is a second event risk inside the next day
18:04 UTC
Range-bound, rolling lower from range top · RSI 42 · price 0.56824
0.5670–0.5710 range; Tuesday high 0.5707 rejected under range top.
NZDUSD has spent the week inside a 0.5670–0.5710 range. Monday's NY-open slide to the 0.5670 week low was recovered through Tuesday's Asia and London sessions, but the advance stalled at 0.5707, just under the range top. USD demand into the Fed and a firm US data slate (durable goods and consumer confidence beats) then drove a NY-session reversal back below the flat EMA20/EMA50 cluster near 0.5692 and past the 61.8% retracement of Tuesday's rally, with RSI(14) slipping to 42 and price sitting just above the 0.5680 shelf from Monday's late trade.
Support: 0.5680, 0.5670
Resistance: 0.5692, 0.5700, 0.5710
What it said to watch
RBNZ decision and MPS at 01:00 GMT Wed: a 25bp hike is near fully priced, so the OCR track and guidance could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 0.5680 shelf exposes the 0.5670 week low and range floor
Recovery above the ema20 near 0.5692 and the 0.5700 round number (last week's close) restores the mid-range read
Only a sustained close above the 0.5710 range top would break the week's cap after repeated rejections
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC follows; a hawkish December signal would keep USD firm against the range
17:04 UTC
Sideways, fading from range top · RSI 40 · price 0.56861
0.5668–0.5710 range; lower highs below 0.5710.
The pair has rotated inside a 0.5668–0.5710 range all window. Monday's London-to-NY slide found the week low near 0.5670, matching last Thursday's range floor. Tuesday's Asia and London recovery stalled at the 0.5707 week high, short of the 0.5710 month high, and firm US durables and confidence data drove an NY-session rejection back below the weekly open and EMA(20). Price now sits at 0.5686, between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the Monday–Tuesday rally, just above the Tue low at 0.5684, with RSI(14) slipping to around 40.
Support: 0.5684, 0.5670
Resistance: 0.5694, 0.5707, 0.5710
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the Tue low at 0.5684 (61.8% retracement) exposes the 0.5670 week low and range floor
Recovery above the weekly open at 0.5694 and EMA(20) would put the 0.5707 week high back in play
A sustained break of the 0.5710 month high invalidates the range read
RBNZ decision and MPS early Wednesday, then the Fed later Wednesday, could materially shift this read
0.5668–0.5710 range; higher lows since Monday's NY low, cap at 0.5700–0.5710 intact.
After opening the week near 0.5695, NZDUSD slid to the 0.5670 week low in Monday's NY session on firm USD demand into the Fed. It rebuilt on firming RBNZ hike pricing, printing a higher low at 0.5684 (tue low) at London open and a 0.5707 week high in the London-NY transition, where it was rejected again under the 0.5710 month high and 0.5700 psych range top. Price now sits on the 38.2% retracement of the Monday–Tuesday rally, between EMA(20) at 0.5694 and the ema50 at 0.5692, with RSI(14) at 51 and ATR near 8 pips reflecting a coiled pre-event market.
Support: 0.5692, 0.5684, 0.5670
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.5707, 0.5710
What it said to watch
RBNZ decision and MPS Wed 01:00 GMT: a 25bp hike is ~90% priced, so the guidance on further hikes could break this range
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could shift the USD leg that has capped the 0.5700 psych level all week
H1 close above the 0.5710 month high breaks the range top that has rejected price since last Wednesday
Loss of the higher-lows trendline and the 0.5684 tue low exposes the 0.5670 week low
Sustained trade below the ema50 near 0.5692 would turn the 38.2% hold into a deeper retracement
15:04 UTC
Sideways, recovering toward range top · RSI 55 · price 0.57012
0.5668–0.5710 range; higher lows since Monday.
NZDUSD has held a 0.5668–0.5710 range since the soft NZ CPI print knocked it off the month high, with the range floor holding twice (Thursday and Monday's NY session) on USD demand ahead of the Fed. Tuesday's recovery set a higher low at 0.5684, which matches the 61.8% retracement of the Monday–Tuesday rally, and price is back above EMA(20) near 0.5696. The range top at 0.5707 rejected again into NY as firm US durables lifted the dollar, the fifth cap this week, though RSI(14) sits near 55 rather than stretched.
Support: 0.5696, 0.5684, 0.5668
Resistance: 0.5707, 0.5710
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5710 month high breaks the range top and the cap seen all week
Failure to hold the 0.5684 higher low turns the read back toward the 0.5668 range floor
A close below the 0.5668 range floor invalidates the double bottom
RBNZ decision and MPS Wed 01:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC is a second event risk to the range structure
0.5668–0.5710 range; Tuesday higher lows beneath a flat range cap.
NZDUSD has held a 0.5668–0.5710 range across the window. Monday's USD-led slide through London and NY found demand again at the monday low near 0.5670. Tuesday's climb from the Asia session on firming RBNZ hike bets reclaimed the 0.5700 round number and set a week high of 0.57075, but supply capped it short of the 0.5710 month high, and the firm US durables print pulled price back to the weekly open at 0.5694, which sits on EMA(20) and the 38.2% retrace of the Monday–Tuesday rise.
Support: 0.56945, 0.56844, 0.56696
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.57075, 0.57102
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5710 month high would break the range cap after repeated rejections this week
Loss of the 0.5684 london low breaks Tuesday's higher lows and the 61.8% retrace, exposing the monday low at 0.5670
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 GMT (~11h): a 25bp hike is ~90% priced, so forward guidance could materially shift this read
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC and today's 14:00 UTC US Consumer Confidence could shift the USD side of the range
13:05 UTC
Range-bound, recovering toward range top · RSI 60 · price 0.5703
0.5668–0.5710 range; higher lows since Monday's NY low.
Monday's slide from the week high area to the 0.5670 swing low came through the London–NY transition as USD was bid into the Fed. That low matched Thursday's post-CPI floor, forming a double floor. Tuesday's recovery ran through Asia and into the first hour of NY, with the London dip holding the fib 61.8 near 0.5684. Price now sits above the ema20 and is retesting the 0.5700–0.5710 range top just under the week high, while RSI(14) holds near 60 without reaching overbought.
Support: 0.5695, 0.5684, 0.5670
Resistance: 0.5708, 0.5710
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5710 month high breaks the range top that has capped every test since last Wednesday
Loss of the ema20 at 0.5695, then the fib 61.8 near 0.5684, would undo the Tuesday higher-low sequence
A return to the 0.5670 swing low tests the double floor; a close below it ends the range read
RBNZ decision and MPS in ~12h (25bp ~90% priced): forward guidance or a hold could materially shift this read
US Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC today, then the Fed on Wednesday, for USD direction
12:03 UTC
Sideways, recovering toward range top · RSI 60 · price 0.5701
0.5670–0.5710 range; Tuesday higher lows into 0.5700 cap.
Pair has held a 0.5670–0.5710 range since the soft NZ CPI print last Wednesday. Monday's NY-session drop to the 0.5670 week low came on USD demand ahead of the Fed and was fully retraced during Tuesday's Asia and London hours as RBNZ hike pricing firmed. Tuesday's pullback low at 0.5684 and the ema20 near 0.5694 have held as price works back toward 0.5700. Supply has capped every test between 0.5704 and the 0.5707 week high, and the 0.5710 month high sits just above.
Support: 0.5694, 0.5684, 0.5670
Resistance: 0.5707, 0.5710
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5707 week high and 0.5710 month high would break the range top after repeated rejection
Loss of the Tuesday higher-lows line and the 0.5684 pullback low would return focus to the 0.5670 week low
A close back below the ema20 near 0.5694 would mark another failure at 0.5700
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) today could test the 0.5700 cap
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 GMT and the Fed later Wednesday could materially shift this read
0.5670–0.5710 range with lower highs under 0.5710, rising lows since Monday.
Price has stayed inside a 0.5670–0.5710 range since last Wednesday's soft NZ CPI print snapped the rally at the 0.5710 month high, with lower highs at 0.5707 (week high) and 0.5705 marking supply under 0.5700–0.5710. USD demand drove Monday's slide to the 0.5670 mon low at the NY open. Tuesday's London-open dip held at 0.5684 (tue low), a higher low near the 61.8% of the Mon–Tue upswing. Price is back above the weekly open and both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 61, as hike bets firm into the RBNZ.
Support: 0.56945, 0.56844, 0.56696
Resistance: 0.57069, 0.57102
What it said to watch
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 GMT (~14h): a hawkish OCR track could test the week high and 0.5710 month high, while a 'sell the fact' reaction could point back toward the weekly open
H1 close above 0.5710 month high breaks the lower-highs sequence and the range top
Failure to hold the tue low at 0.5684 breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the mon low at 0.5670
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC today, then the Fed on Wednesday, could shift the USD bid that has capped 0.5700
10:04 UTC
Sideways, flat EMAs inside a 40-pip range · RSI 54 · price 0.56906
Range 0.5670–0.5710, higher lows since Monday NY close.
The week opened near 0.5695, and Monday's London-to-NY slide to the 0.5670 range floor came as USD demand built ahead of the Fed. Tuesday's Asia session retraced almost all of the Monday drop, but the 0.5705 range top rejected price for a fourth straight session. Price now sits on a flat EMA(20) near 0.5690 with RSI(14) at 54. Pullbacks are holding above the tuesday low at 0.5684 and a short run of higher lows, while the 0.5710 month high remains the upper bound.
Support: 0.5690, 0.5684, 0.5670
Resistance: 0.5705, 0.5710
What it said to watch
An H1 close above 0.5710 (month high) would break the range read, which the digest ties to hawkish RBNZ guidance
Loss of the 0.5684 tuesday low and the higher-lows line would put the 0.5670 range floor back in focus
The RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 GMT (~15h) could materially shift this read; a 25bp hike is ~90% priced, so guidance is the swing factor
The FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC is a second event risk for the range
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) today are a pre-Fed check on the USD bid capping the range top
0.5668–0.5710 range with higher lows since Monday's low.
NZDUSD has held a 0.5668–0.5710 range since Thursday's push to the 0.5710 week high. Every return to the 0.5700–0.5705 range top has met rejection, including Friday's NY rally, Monday's open and Tuesday's Asia push to 0.5704. Monday's slide stalled at 0.5670, just above Thursday's 0.5668 range low. A higher-lows sequence off that base has since lifted price back above EMA(20) near 0.5690, with RSI(14) in the mid-50s. The soft Q3 CPI and pre-FOMC USD demand explain the cap, even as RBNZ hike pricing firms toward 90%.
Support: 0.5690, 0.56844, 0.56678
Resistance: 0.57045, 0.57102
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5710 week high breaks the range top after repeated rejections near 0.5705
Loss of the 0.5684 session low breaks the higher-lows line and reopens the 0.5668 range low
RBNZ decision and MPS Wed 01:00 UTC (~16h) is the main catalyst for a range break; a hold vs ~90% priced hike is the larger downside tail
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Conference Board confidence 14:00 UTC today, with the Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC, could shift the read via USD
NZDUSD has rotated inside a 0.5670–0.5710 range since the soft NZ Q3 CPI print on Wednesday. Each push into the range top has stalled at a lower high: 0.5710, 0.5707 at Sunday's open and 0.5705 in Tuesday's Asia session. Monday's NY-session drop held the range floor near 0.5670, and the Asian rally off it has since been retraced through London to the 50% level, just under EMA(20) and the 0.5695 weekly open. RSI(14) sits flat near 49, with USD firm into the Fed and NZD capped ahead of RBNZ.
Support: 0.5684, 0.5670
Resistance: 0.5690, 0.56945, 0.5705
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5705 range top and the lower-high line would break the four-session cap
Failure to hold the 61.8% fib at 0.5684 exposes the range floor near 0.5670 again
An H1 close back above ema20 and the weekly open at 0.5695 would restore the Asia rally structure
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC today, then RBNZ at 01:00 UTC Wednesday (hike ~90% priced), could break the range either way
07:04 UTC
Sideways, flat EMAs, no directional momentum · RSI 51 · price 0.56916
0.5668–0.5710 range with lower highs and flat lows, coiling.
NZDUSD has held a 0.5668–0.5710 range since the soft NZ Q3 CPI spike set the week high on Wednesday. The 0.5700–0.5705 range top has capped every attempt since, and highs are edging lower. Monday's London and NY sell-off on the pre-Fed USD bid stopped just above the range low. Tuesday's Asia session rally from 0.5671 was rejected at 0.5704 again. Price now sits on a flat EMA(20)/EMA(50) near 0.5690, just under the weekly open, at the 38.2% retracement of that Asia leg, with RSI(14) neutral at 51.
Support: 0.5690, 0.5668
Resistance: 0.56945, 0.5704, 0.5710
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5704 range top, then the 0.5710 week high, breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.5668 range low confirms a range break lower
Sustained trade below the ema20 near 0.5690 and the 0.5688 50% retracement exposes Monday's lows
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC today can shift the read before RBNZ
RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC (~18h) and FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially reset the range
NZDUSD has been boxed in 0.5668–0.5710 since Thursday's Asia-session spike to the month high faded after the soft NZ CPI print. Each push toward the top has stalled at a lower high: 0.5710, then the Monday high at 0.5707, then 0.5704 today. Monday's London-into-NY slide on pre-Fed USD demand held the Monday low at 0.5670, just above the week low, and today's Asia rally was rejected at 0.5704. Price now sits back near 0.5694, marginally above the ema20 around 0.5690, with RSI(14) in the mid-50s.
Support: 0.5690, 0.5670, 0.5668
Resistance: 0.5704, 0.5707, 0.5710
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5710 month high breaks the range top after repeated rejections
A further lower high below 0.5704 keeps the lower highs line intact
Loss of the ema20 near 0.5690 exposes the range floor at the 0.5670 monday low; below the 0.5668 week low confirms a range break
Retracement beyond 61.8% of the asia rally fib (~0.5684) would erase today's rebound
US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC today, then the RBNZ decision Wed 01:00 UTC (~19h) and the Fed Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
05:05 UTC
Range-bound, lower highs at the range top · RSI 52 · price 0.56913
0.5668–0.5710 range since Thursday; lower highs since the weekly open.
Price has held a 0.5668–0.5710 box since Thursday's CPI miss knocked NZDUSD off the 0.5710 month high, and it is now trading just under the 0.56945 weekly open. Monday's London and NY sessions drove a 37-pip slide to the range floor near 0.5670 as USD demand built into the Fed. Today's Asia session retraced the move back to the 0.5704 range cap, where the latest hour was rejected sharply, leaving a lower high since the weekly open (0.5707 to 0.5704). Price now sits on the 38.2% retracement of that rebound and on a flat EMA(20)/EMA(50) cluster near 0.5690, with RSI(14) at 52.
Support: 0.5690, 0.5683, 0.5670
Resistance: 0.56945, 0.5704, 0.5710
What it said to watch
An hourly close above the 0.5704 range cap and the 0.5710 month high breaks the four-session ceiling and the lower-highs line.
Failure to hold the ema20 near 0.5690 exposes the 61.8% fib at 0.5683 and then the 0.5670 range floor.
Reclaiming the 0.56945 weekly open would neutralise the latest rejection.
RBNZ decision Oct 28 01:00 UTC (~20h): a hike is ~90% priced, so the guidance, or a hold, could break the 0.5668–0.5710 range.
US durable goods (12:30 UTC) and consumer confidence (14:00 UTC) today, then FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC, as USD drivers into the range edges.
04:04 UTC
Sideways, rebounding to range top · RSI 64 · price 0.57035
0.5668–0.5710 range: flat highs near 0.5704–0.5710, marginally higher lows at the floor.
Range-bound between the 0.5668 range floor and the 0.5710 week high since Thursday's soft NZ CPI print knocked the pair back below 0.5700. NY-session selling into the 0.5668–0.5671 area on Thursday and again on Monday, as USD was bid ahead of the FOMC, was absorbed each time, leaving marginally higher lows. Today's Asia session has lifted price back above the EMA(20) near 0.5690 to retest 0.5700, close to a full retracement of Monday's drop, with RSI(14) near 64 and supply still capping in front of the 0.5707 Monday high.
Support: 0.5690, 0.5668
Resistance: 0.5707, 0.5710
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5710 week high breaks the range top that has capped four sessions
Rejection below the 0.5707 Monday high and a return under the ema20 near 0.5690 keeps the range read intact
Failure to hold the 0.5668 range floor ends the higher-low sequence and confirms a range break lower
RBNZ decision and MPS on Oct 28 at 01:00 UTC (~21h) could materially shift this read
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) today, then the FOMC Wednesday 18:00 UTC, are the USD-side risks
0.5668–0.5710 range since CPI, flat-to-lower highs.
Since the CPI miss knocked the pair off the 0.5710 cpi high, H1 has held a 0.5668–0.5710 range. The range top at 0.5700 has capped every session, and the 0.5707 weekly high set in Monday's Asia session also held. London and NY drove Monday's slide to the 0.5670 monday low as USD was bought back ahead of the Fed, and Tuesday's Asia rebound was rejected again just above 0.5700. Price sits back near the 0.5695 weekly open, just above EMA(20) at 0.5688, with RSI(14) at 56 and roughly 62% of the post-cpi drop retraced.
Support: 0.5688, 0.5670, 0.5668
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.5707, 0.5710
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5707 weekly high and 0.5710 cpi high would break the range top
Loss of EMA(20) at 0.5688 returns focus to the 0.5670 monday low
Failure to hold the 0.5668 post-cpi low confirms a range break lower
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) today are near-term USD inputs
RBNZ decision and MPS in ~22h, followed by the Fed on Wednesday, could materially shift this read
02:04 UTC
Range-bound, rebounding off range low · RSI 58 · price 0.56973
0.5668–0.5710 range since CPI; double low at the floor, retesting the 0.5700 cap.
NZDUSD spiked to the 0.5710 month high after Wednesday's Q3 CPI miss, then reversed, and has held a 0.5668–0.5710 range since, with the 0.5700 psych handle repeatedly capping. Monday's drop from the 0.5707 monday high ran through London into the NY open on pre-Fed USD short-covering. It stalled at the range low near 0.5670 for a second time, forming a double bottom. The Asia session has since retraced about 74% of that drop. Price is back above EMA(20) near 0.5688 and EMA(50), RSI(14) at 58, retesting 0.5700 from below.
Support: 0.5688, 0.5670
Resistance: 0.5700, 0.5707, 0.5710
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5707 monday high and 0.5710 month high would break the range top and confirm the double bottom
Failure to hold ema20 at 0.5688 returns focus to the 0.5670 range low; a close below voids the double bottom
RBNZ decision in ~23h (hike to 3.00% ~90% priced): guidance tone or a hold could break the range either way
US Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and the Fed on Wednesday 18:00 UTC could shift the USD side of the read
Price has held a 0.5668–0.5710 range all window. During Monday's London and NY sessions the pair slid from the 0.5707 Asia high to 0.5670 as USD was bought back ahead of the Fed, retesting the range low set after last Wednesday's soft NZ CPI. Asia session has since retraced to the weekly open near 0.5695, around the 61.8% of Monday's drop, with price back above EMA(20) and RSI(14) near 55, while the 0.5700 cap has rejected four sessions running.
Support: 0.5686, 0.5670
Resistance: 0.5695, 0.5700, 0.5710
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5700 cap and the 0.5710 range top would break the four-session ceiling
Rejection at the weekly open / 61.8% of Monday's drop puts the ema20 near 0.5686 back in focus
A break below the 0.5668–0.5670 range low would turn the double test into a lower-low
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) during NY hours could extend Monday's USD bid
RBNZ decision Oct 28 01:00 UTC, then FOMC later Wednesday, could materially shift this read
0.5668–0.5710 range since Thursday; Monday lower high, Asia rebound to mid-range.
NZDUSD has held a 0.5668–0.5710 range since the post-CPI spike to the 0.5710 month high on Thursday. The 0.5700 round number has rejected four straight sessions at the range top. Monday's drop from 0.5707 began at the London open and reached the 0.5670 Monday low in the first hours of NY as USD buying built ahead of the FOMC. The Asia session has since recovered to the 50% retracement of that leg, back above EMA(20) near 0.5685 but below the 0.56945 weekly open, with RSI(14) flat at 51 and ATR(14) compressed to about 7 pips ahead of the RBNZ.
Support: 0.56853, 0.56696, 0.56678
Resistance: 0.56945, 0.5700, 0.57102
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.56945 weekly open and the 0.5700 round number would bring the 0.5710 month high back into play
Failure to hold EMA(20) at 0.5685 returns focus to the 0.5670 Monday low and the 0.5668 range low; a close below them would mark a range break
RBNZ decision and MPS Oct 28 01:00 UTC (~25h), followed by the Fed later Wednesday, could materially shift this read
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) during NY hours Tuesday may test the range edges first