Higher lows off London low, tight post-Fed band 0.5620–0.5633.
The RBNZ hold took NZDUSD to 0.5583. A post-Fed USD dip extended the rebound from the London low at 0.5595, but the press-conference spike to 0.5638 was rejected between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the RBNZ drop. Late NY into early Asia has compressed between the post-Fed low at 0.5620 and the post-Fed high at 0.5633, with price pressing the top of that band.
Support: 0.56204, 0.56092, 0.55952
Resistance: 0.5633, 0.56383, 0.56459
What it said to watch
M15 close above the post-Fed high at 0.5633 puts the Fed spike high at 0.5638 and the 61.8% fib at 0.5646 back in play
Failure to hold the post-Fed low at 0.5620 exposes the Fed low at 0.5609, then the London low at 0.5595
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~13h) could materially shift this read
23:32 UTC
Recovering from the RBNZ low, now flat · RSI 51 · price 0.56274
Higher lows since the London low; post-Fed range 0.5620–0.5633.
The RBNZ hold sell-off spiked to 0.5583. Price then grinded higher lows off the 0.5595 London low, and the post-Fed USD dip lifted it to a 0.5638 post-fed high. Since then it has held a tight 0.5620–0.5633 range into early Asia session, with the range floor sitting on the 38.2% fib of that leg and the 0.5609 Fed low below.
Support: 0.5620, 0.56092, 0.55952
Resistance: 0.5633, 0.56383
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5633 range top exposes the 0.5638 post-fed high
Failure to hold the 0.5620 range floor shifts focus to the 0.5609 Fed low and the rising lows line
US core PCE / Q3 GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~13h) could materially shift this read
Higher lows since London low; tight post-Fed band under 50% retrace.
The RBNZ surprise hold drove a drop to 0.5583 at 01:00 UTC. Price then built higher lows off the 0.5595 London low, and the post-Fed spike to the 0.5638 presser high was rejected near the 50% retrace of that drop. Late NY has compressed into a roughly 7-pip band above the 0.5620 range low, with price pressing the pre-fed high at 0.5629 into the Asia session.
Support: 0.5620, 0.5618, 0.5595
Resistance: 0.5629, 0.5634, 0.5638
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5638 presser high clears the 50% retrace and breaks the post-Fed band
Failure at the 0.5620 range low exposes the 0.5618 post-fed low and the higher-low trendline
Loss of the 0.5595 London low unwinds the post-RBNZ recovery structure
US core PCE and Q3 GDP Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
23:03 UTC
Recovering from RBNZ low, now flat · RSI 48 · price 0.56245
Post-Fed range 0.5618–0.5633, compressing in early Asia.
The RBNZ's surprise hold knocked the pair to 0.5583 at 01:00 UTC. Price has since recovered along a rising support line, and the USD sell-off around the Fed press conference spiked it to 0.5638. Early Asia is now compressing between the asia low at 0.5620 and the asia high at 0.5627, inside the post-Fed range of 0.5618–0.5633, with RSI(14) neutral and EMA20 flat at price.
Support: 0.5620, 0.5618, 0.5609
Resistance: 0.5627, 0.5633, 0.5638
What it said to watch
M15 close below the post-fed low at 0.5618 breaks the range and exposes the fed bar low at 0.5609, near the 38.2% of the post-RBNZ recovery
M15 close above the post-fed top at 0.5633 reopens the fed spike high at 0.5638
A break of the rising support line from the London low shifts the read back toward the post-RBNZ lows
US Core PCE and Q3 GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~13h) could materially shift this read
22:47 UTC
Recovery off RBNZ low, now flat · RSI 44 · price 0.56235
Post-Fed range 0.5620–0.5633, tightening below the Fed high.
The surprise RBNZ hold flushed price to 0.5583 at 01:00 UTC. The pair then recovered from the 0.5595 London low into the Fed, where USD softness spiked it to the 0.5638 Fed high before a rejection. Since the presser, bars have compressed between the 0.5620 late low and the 0.5633 post-Fed high in thin post-NY trade, sitting just under the 23.6% fib with RSI(14) neutral near 44.
Support: 0.5620, 0.5609, 0.5595
Resistance: 0.5633, 0.5638
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5620 late low exposes the 0.5609 Fed low and the rising support line near 0.5616
Close above the 0.5633 post-Fed high puts the 0.5638 Fed high back in play
Asia session liquidity returning could break the current tight range
US core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC (~14h) could materially shift this read
22:32 UTC
Intraday recovery from RBNZ low, stalling after the Fed · RSI 46 · price 0.56223
Higher lows since the London low; tight 0.5620–0.5633 box under the Fed spike high.
The RBNZ's surprise hold drove a 0.5583 low early in the Asia session. NY then lifted price out of the post-decision Asian range, and the Fed presser spiked it to 0.5638 (the fed spike hi) as USD softened, but that high was rejected. Late NY / early Asia, price is compressing between the post-fed low near 0.5620 and a lower high at 0.5633, sitting above the 38.2% fib with RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 0.5620, 0.56171, 0.56092
Resistance: 0.56288, 0.5633, 0.56383
What it said to watch
M15 close below the post-fed low at 0.5620 exposes the 38.2% fib at 0.5617, then the fed bar low at 0.5609
A break of the fed bar low also takes out the rising support line from the London low, ending the higher-low chain
Close above the pre-fed high at 0.5629 and the lower high at 0.5633 reopens the fed spike hi at 0.5638
US core PCE / Q3 GDP Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Tight post-Fed range 0.5620–0.5633 inside the London-low to Fed-high leg.
The RBNZ surprise hold dropped NZD to 0.5583 in Asia. Price then recovered off the 0.5595 london low through NY, and Warsh's less-hawkish-than-feared presser spiked it to the 0.5638 fed high, where the move was rejected. Since the NY close it has been holding a thin 0.5620–0.5633 range near the 38.2% fib of that leg, with RSI(14) neutral at 48 and EMA20 flat at price.
Support: 0.5620, 0.56092, 0.55952
Resistance: 0.5633, 0.56383
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5620 range low exposes the 0.5609 fed spike low and the 50% fib near 0.5617
Acceptance above the 0.5633 range high puts the 0.5638 fed high back in play
Thin post-NY/early Asia liquidity can produce noise inside the range without changing the structure
US core PCE and Q3 GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~14h) could materially shift this read
Higher lows from London low; tight post-NY range 0.5618–0.5633.
The RBNZ's surprise hold flushed the pair to 0.5583 in the Asia session. It has since built higher lows from the 0.5595 London low, and the FOMC spike to the 0.5638 fomc high was rejected after Warsh's presser. Price is now drifting in thin post-NY trade inside 0.5618–0.5633, holding the 38.2% retracement of the London-to-FOMC leg near 0.5622, with RSI(14) neutral around 54.
Support: 0.56181, 0.56092, 0.55952
Resistance: 0.5633, 0.56383
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5618 range floor puts the 0.5609 fomc wick and the higher-lows trendline in focus
Break of 0.5609 fomc wick would end the higher-low chain from the 0.5595 london low
Close above the 0.5633 range top reopens the 0.5638 fomc high
US core PCE and Q3 GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~14.5h) could materially shift this read
Higher lows from London low, tight post-Fed range 0.5618–0.5633.
The 01:00 UTC RBNZ hold flushed the pair to 0.5583 before a steady grind of higher lows off the 0.5595 London low. The Fed spike tagged 0.5638 and was rejected. Price now sits on the post-Fed low near 0.5618, which lines up with the 38.2% fib, in thin late-NY trade.
Support: 0.56181, 0.56092, 0.55952
Resistance: 0.5629, 0.56383
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5618 post-fed low exposes the 0.5609 fed low and the rising swing-low trendline
Break below the 0.5595 london low would reverse the post-RBNZ recovery structure
Reclaim of 0.5629 pre-fed high reopens a test of the 0.5638 fed high
Thin liquidity into the Asia session can produce outsized wicks
US core PCE and Q3 GDP in ~15h could materially shift this read
21:32 UTC
Post-RBNZ recovery, stalling after the Fed · RSI 49 · price 0.56206
Post-Fed range 0.5618–0.5638 with lower highs.
Kiwi rebounded from the 0.5583 RBNZ-hold low and held the 0.5595 London low before a NY push to 0.5629. The 18:30 UTC Fed bar spiked to 0.5638 as USD softened on Warsh's 'tightening is working' line. That spike has been rejected into lower highs, and price now sits at 0.5621 in thin post-NY trade, testing the post-Fed low and the 38.2% fib of the 0.5595–0.5638 leg.
Support: 0.56181, 0.56092, 0.55952
Resistance: 0.56288, 0.56383
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5618 post-fed low exposes the 0.5609 fed bar low and the 61.8% fib near 0.5612.
Loss of 0.5609 reopens the 0.5595 london low.
Recovery above the 0.5629 ny high and the lower-high trendline brings the 0.5638 fed high back into play.
Thu 12:30 UTC core PCE/GDP cluster (~15h) could materially shift this read.
Tight post-FOMC range 0.5622–0.5633 inside spike bar.
Kiwi has climbed back from the 0.5583 low set on the RBNZ's surprise hold. Higher lows have printed since the 0.5595 london low, and Warsh's 'tightening is working' presser drove a spike to the 0.5638 fomc high that was rejected. Price has since been held in a narrow post-Fed band between the 0.5622 post-fed low, which sits at the 38.2% fib, and the 0.5633 post-fed top as volatility fades after the NY close.
Support: 0.56217, 0.56092, 0.55952
Resistance: 0.5633, 0.56383
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.5622 post-fed low exposes the 0.5609 fomc low and the 50–61.8% fib zone near 0.5617/0.5612
Break of the rising support line from the london low shifts the higher-low read
Close above the 0.5633 post-fed top puts the 0.5638 fomc high back in focus
US core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC Thu could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain since the London low; post-Fed range 0.5618–0.5633.
It is late in the NY session. The Fed hold and Warsh's 'tightening is working' presser spiked NZD/USD to the 0.5638 fomc high, but the pair was rejected and settled into a 0.5618–0.5633 band. That keeps intact the London-to-NY recovery from the 0.5583 low that followed the RBNZ hold. Price sits on the fib 38.2 at 0.5622, just under EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral near 51 and ATR about 8.5 pips.
Support: 0.5622, 0.5609, 0.5595
Resistance: 0.5633, 0.5638
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.5633 post-fed hi and the 0.5638 fomc high would extend the higher-high sequence off the london low
Loss of 0.5622 (fib 38.2) exposes the 0.5609 fomc low; failure there brings the 0.5595 london low back into play
Thu 12:30 UTC core PCE and Q3 GDP (~15h) are the next catalyst that could break the post-Fed range
20:47 UTC
Recovering after RBNZ flush, now flat · RSI 52 · price 0.56248
Higher lows since 0.5583, compressing 0.5622–0.5633.
The RBNZ's surprise hold at 01:00 UTC flushed NZD about 92 pips to 0.5583. Since then it has carved higher lows at the 0.5595 London low and the 0.5609 FOMC low. The FOMC spike to the 0.5638 high met rejection, and price now sits late in the NY session inside a tight 0.5622–0.5633 band near the 38.2% retracement of the RBNZ drop, with RSI(14) neutral at 52.
Support: 0.5622, 0.56092, 0.55952
Resistance: 0.5633, 0.56383
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5622 post-fed low and the higher lows trendline puts the 0.5609 FOMC low back in play
Close above the 0.5633 range top and the 0.5638 FOMC high opens the 50–61.8% zone of the RBNZ drop fib near 0.5634–0.5646
US Core PCE / GDP Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Fed press-conference reaction still settling; the 0.5609–0.5638 FOMC bar range frames the near-term extremes
Higher lows from London low, lower highs since FOMC spike.
The RBNZ's surprise hold flushed NZD 90 pips to 0.5583 at 01:00 UTC. Price then built higher lows from the 0.5595 london low through NY, and the FOMC whipsaw tagged the 0.5609 fomc low before spiking to the 0.5638 fomc high. Since then the pair has printed lower highs near 0.5630 and slipped under EMA20 late in NY, sitting on the 38.2% fib at 0.5622 just above the 0.5618 pullback low.
Support: 0.56181, 0.56092, 0.55952
Resistance: 0.5633, 0.56383
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5618 pullback low exposes the 0.5609 fomc low and the higher-lows trendline near 0.5612
Break of the 0.5630 lower highs reopens the 0.5638 fomc high
Loss of the 0.5595 london low would erase the session recovery off the RBNZ low
Fed vote split and press-conference tone are still filtering through; Core PCE/GDP Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 0.5595; post-FOMC range 0.5618–0.5638.
The RBNZ's surprise hold at 01:00 UTC dropped NZDUSD from the pre-rbnz 0.5675 area to 0.5583. Price has since built higher lows off the 0.5595 london low along rising support. The FOMC press-conference bar swept the fomc low at 0.5609 and the fomc high at 0.5638 in one candle. Late NY hours are compressing between the 0.5618 pullback low and the 0.5633 late ny high, with RSI(14) neutral near 53 and price holding above the 23.6% fib of the recovery.
Support: 0.5618, 0.5609, 0.5595
Resistance: 0.5633, 0.5638, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5638 fomc high extends the recovery leg from the RBNZ low
Loss of the 0.5618 pullback low and rising support exposes the 0.5609 fomc low and the fib 50% near 0.5610
Break of the 0.5595 london low invalidates the higher-low structure
US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC tomorrow (~16h) could materially shift this read
Higher lows from London low; post-FOMC range 0.5618–0.5638.
After the RBNZ surprise hold sank the kiwi to 0.5583 at 01:00 UTC, London's dip held at the 0.5595 london low and NY broke above the 0.5619 Asian high. The FOMC presser whipsawed price from 0.5609, the double low, to 0.5638, and late NY is now ranging below that fomc high, with the asian high retested as support and the rising trendline intact on closes; RSI(14) is near 58.
Support: 0.5618, 0.5609, 0.5595
Resistance: 0.56383, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5638 fomc high extends the higher-high sequence, with the 0.5675 pre-RBNZ breakdown level next above
Failure to hold the 0.5618 asian high and the rising trendline puts the 0.5609 double low back in play
Below 0.5595 london low, the higher-low chain is broken
Warsh presser tone and Thu 12:30 UTC US GDP/core PCE could materially shift this read
19:47 UTC
Recovering from RBNZ low, now compressing post-FOMC · RSI 53 · price 0.56259
Higher lows since London low; FOMC whipsaw range 0.5609–0.5638.
After the RBNZ hold knocked the pair to 0.5583 in Asia, the London low at 0.5595 held. NY then built higher lows into a pre-FOMC high at 0.5629. The FOMC and presser whipsawed price between the fomc low at 0.5609 and the fomc high at 0.5638, with a rejection at the top. Price is now compressing near 0.5626, holding the post-FOMC low at 0.5618 and above the 38.2% retrace of the London low-to-FOMC-high leg.
Support: 0.5618, 0.5609, 0.5595
Resistance: 0.5629, 0.5638
What it said to watch
Hold above the post-fomc low 0.5618 keeps the late-NY higher-low chain intact
Break of the fomc low 0.5609 retraces most of the NY leg and exposes the london low at 0.5595
Close back above the pre-fomc high 0.5629 puts the fomc high 0.5638 back in play
Warsh presser tone on December could still extend the post-decision swing
19:32 UTC
Recovery from post-RBNZ low, whipsawing after FOMC · RSI 56 · price 0.56272
Higher lows since 0.5595 London low; post-FOMC chop capped under 0.5638.
Late NY session: the FOMC presser bar spiked from the 0.5609 fomc low to a 0.5638 fomc high and was rejected, leaving price chopping near 0.5627, just under the 0.5629 prior high, with a 0.5618 pullback low below. The recovery from the RBNZ-hold flush has held higher lows off the 0.5595 london low along rising support. ATR(14) has expanded to about 7 pips on the event bars.
Support: 0.56181, 0.56092, 0.55952
Resistance: 0.56288, 0.56383
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5638 fomc high extends the post-RBNZ recovery and clears the presser rejection
Failure to hold the 0.5618 pullback low puts the 0.5609 fomc low and rising support in play; a break there ends the higher-low chain toward the 0.5595 london low
Warsh press conference is still in progress; Thu 12:30 UTC US GDP and core PCE could materially shift this read
19:17 UTC
Intraday higher lows off the London low, FOMC spike faded · RSI 52 · price 0.56233
HL chain from 0.5595; post-FOMC wick rejected, price back at 38.2%.
Kiwi has been rebuilding from the RBNZ-hold flush. A higher-low climb from the 0.5595 london low reached a 0.5629 ny high before the Fed. The FOMC presser spike to the 0.5638 fomc high was rejected inside the same bar, and late NY price is pinned at the 0.5622 post-fed low, which sits on the 38.2% fib, with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 0.56217, 0.56092, 0.55952
Resistance: 0.56288, 0.56383
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5629 ny high reopens the 0.5638 fomc high
Failure to hold the 0.5622 post-fed low exposes the 0.5609 fomc low and rising support from the london low
Close below the 0.5595 london low breaks the intraday higher-low chain
Warsh presser still in progress; US GDP/core PCE at 12:30 UTC tomorrow could materially shift this read
Higher lows since London; FOMC spike above NY high rejected.
The RBNZ-hold flush to 0.5583 in Asia has been recovered on a chain of higher lows from the 0.5595 London low, and NY cleared the post-RBNZ Asian high at 0.5619. The FOMC presser whipsawed price between the 0.5609 fomc low and the 0.5638 fomc spike. The break above the 0.5629 NY high failed within one bar, and price is back on the fib 38.2 and rising trendline near 0.5622, with RSI(14) neutral around 55.
Support: 0.5622, 0.5619, 0.5609
Resistance: 0.5629, 0.5638
What it said to watch
Warsh press conference in progress: December hike guidance could materially shift this read
An M15 close below 0.5622 (fib 38.2 / rising trendline) puts the 0.5619 asian high back in play
Failure to hold the 0.5609 fomc low breaks the higher-low chain from London
An M15 close back above the 0.5629 NY high reopens the 0.5638 fomc spike
US Q3 GDP and core PCE Thu 12:30 UTC are the next scheduled USD risk
Higher lows from London low, pullback after FOMC spike.
The RBNZ's surprise hold flushed the pair to 0.5583 in the Asia session. It then recovered through a higher-low chain, from the London low at 0.5595 and the 0.5609 swing low during NY hours, up to a 0.5629 session high. The FOMC hold bar spiked to 0.5626 and was rejected, and the pullback found the fomc low at 0.5613 between the 38.2% and 50% retracement. Price now sits at 0.5619, retesting the post-RBNZ bounce high.
Support: 0.56131, 0.56087, 0.55952
Resistance: 0.56263, 0.56288
What it said to watch
Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC is under way and could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.5613 fomc low exposes the 0.5609 swing low and the 61.8% retrace
Failure to hold 0.5609 breaks the higher-low chain and reopens the 0.5595 london low
Close above the 0.5626 fomc high and the 0.5629 session high extends the recovery
18:18 UTC
Post-RBNZ recovery, higher lows now under test · RSI 49 · price 0.56163
HL chain 0.5595 → 0.5609, NY high 0.5629; FOMC spike faded back to fib 38.2.
After the RBNZ hold flush to 0.5583, NY built higher lows from the 0.5595 london low and printed a 0.5629 ny high, clearing the 0.5619 asian high. The 18:00 UTC FOMC statement spike to 0.5626 met rejection. Price is back at the 0.5616 fib 38.2 and slipping under the rising trendline, with RSI(14) neutral at 49.
Support: 0.5616, 0.56087, 0.55952
Resistance: 0.56189, 0.56263, 0.56288
What it said to watch
Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; ATR(14) of ~4 pips understates event risk
Failure to hold the 0.5609 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.5595 london low
M15 close back above the 0.5619 asian high and 0.5626 fomc spike reopens the 0.5629 ny high
18:04 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows off London low · RSI 63 · price 0.56216
HL chain from 0.5595; pullback from 0.5629 day high retesting 0.5619 prior high.
The RBNZ-hold flush to 0.5583 has given way to higher lows from the 0.5595 London low. NY extended to a 0.5629 day high before easing back onto the 0.5619 prior high, which lines up with the rising trendline and EMA20. RSI(14) is near 63 and ATR is about 4 pips as the FOMC decision lands.
Support: 0.5619, 0.56087, 0.55952
Resistance: 0.56288
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 can override this read; event range is likely to dwarf the ~4-pip ATR
An M15 close below the 0.5619 prior high and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain
Failure to hold the 0.5609 swing low exposes the 0.5595 London low
A close above the 0.5629 day high extends the NY leg from the London low
17:48 UTC
Intraday uptrend off London low, pausing · RSI 62 · price 0.56209
Higher lows from 0.5595; Asian high 0.5619 broken in NY.
The RBNZ hold knocked the pair to 0.5583, and a London low at 0.5595 started a chain of higher lows. NY then cleared the 0.5619 Asian high and set a 0.5629 session high. Price has eased back under the 0.5623 minor high, holding just above the Asian high with RSI(14) near 62, minutes before the FOMC decision.
Support: 0.5619, 0.56087, 0.55952
Resistance: 0.56229, 0.56288
What it said to watch
FOMC decision and Warsh press conference shortly; a ~4-pip ATR will understate the likely range
M15 close back below the 0.5619 Asian high puts the NY breakout in question
Loss of the 0.5609 higher low, near the 61.8% of the London-NY leg, breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.5595 London low
Close above the 0.5629 session high extends the higher-high sequence
HH/HL chain from London low, holding above post-RBNZ range top.
The 0.5675 to 0.5583 flush on the surprise RBNZ hold gave way to a higher-low chain off the 0.5595 London low, clearing the 0.5619 post-RBNZ range top to a 0.5629 session high. Late NY, price is holding just above that breakout level into FOMC, with RSI(14) near 63 and ATR around 4 pips.
Support: 0.5619, 0.5609, 0.5595
Resistance: 0.5629, 0.5675
What it said to watch
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC, 30 min out, could materially shift this read
M15 close back below 0.5619 range top negates the breakout
Loss of the 0.5609 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and rising support
Close above the 0.5629 session high opens the path toward 0.5675, the pre-RBNZ breakdown level
HH/HL chain from 0.5595 London low; post-RBNZ cap broken.
The RBNZ hold at 01:00 UTC dropped NZD/USD about 90 pips to 0.5583. Since then, a higher-low chain off the 0.5595 London low and the 0.5609 swing low has lifted price through the 0.5619 prior high to a 0.5629 session high late in NY. RSI(14) is near 63 and ATR(14) is about 4 pips, so ranges are compressed ahead of FOMC at 18:00 UTC.
Support: 0.5619, 0.56087, 0.55952
Resistance: 0.56288, 0.56745
What it said to watch
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Loss of the 0.5619 prior high puts price back inside the post-RBNZ range
A break of the higher-low line and the 0.5609 swing low (61.8% of the recovery leg) ends the HH/HL chain; the 0.5595 London low is next
An M15 close above the 0.5629 session high opens the 0.5675 pre-rbnz level
17:04 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the post-RBNZ low · RSI 65 · price 0.56264
Higher lows since London, NY breaking above the Asian range high.
The RBNZ hold flushed price to 0.5583 at 01:00 UTC. London then held a higher low at 0.5595, and NY has ground through the asian high at 0.5619 to a session high at 0.5629, with RSI(14) near 65 and ATR(14) near 4.5 pips. The FOMC lands in under an hour with price pressing the top of the day's recovery.
Support: 0.5619, 0.5609, 0.5595
Resistance: 0.5629, 0.5675
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close back below the asian high at 0.5619 puts the NY breakout in question
Loss of the 0.5609 swing low breaks rising support
Acceptance above the 0.5629 session high opens the path toward the pre-RBNZ level near 0.5675
A break of the 0.5595 london low reverts structure to lower lows
16:47 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London · RSI 64 · price 0.56225
HL chain off London low, pushing session high at 38.2% retrace.
Asia brought the RBNZ-hold flush to 0.5583. Since then the London low at 0.5595 has held, and NY higher lows have carried price through the 0.5619 prior high to a session high at 0.5623, the 38.2% retrace of the decision drop. RSI(14) is near 64 and ATR(14) has compressed to about 4 pips ahead of the FOMC.
Support: 0.5619, 0.5609, 0.5595
Resistance: 0.5623, 0.5634
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 0.5623 session high opens the 50% fib of the RBNZ drop at 0.5634
A slip back below the 0.5619 prior high turns the break into a false break
Loss of the 0.5609 higher low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 0.5595 london low
16:32 UTC
Intraday recovery from post-RBNZ low, higher lows since London · RSI 64 · price 0.56224
HH/HL chain from 0.5595; post-RBNZ range top 0.5619 broken during NY hours.
The surprise RBNZ hold flushed NZDUSD from 0.5675 to 0.5583. Price has since retraced to the 38.2% fib of that drop, building higher lows from the 0.5595 London low and the 0.5609 swing low. NY broke the post-RBNZ range top at 0.5619 after three failures there, and price is pressing the 0.5623 session high with RSI(14) near 64, not stretched.
Support: 0.5619, 0.5609, 0.5595
Resistance: 0.5623, 0.5634, 0.5675
What it said to watch
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 0.5619 range top would mark the break as a false break
Close below the 0.5609 swing low and rising trendline ends the higher-low chain, exposing the 0.5595 london low
Acceptance above the 0.5634 50% fib opens the path toward 0.5675 pre-rbnz levels
16:17 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London · RSI 61 · price 0.56209
HL chain off the 0.5595 London low, breaking the post-RBNZ range top.
The 01:00 UTC RBNZ hold sent price from 0.5675 to a 0.5583 low, and it held a 0.5600–0.5619 range through Asia. Price has since printed higher lows off the 0.5595 London low and pushed through the 0.5619 range top in NY hours to a 0.5623 session high. RSI(14) is near 61 and ATR(14) is about 4.4 pips, so the pair is not stretched heading into the FOMC.
Support: 0.5619, 0.56087, 0.55952
Resistance: 0.56229, 0.5675
What it said to watch
A close back below the 0.5619 range top would turn the breakout into a false break
Losing the 0.5609 swing low (the 50% of the London leg) breaks the higher-low chain
A close below the 0.5595 London low would put the RBNZ low back in focus
Above the 0.5623 session high, the next reference is the 0.5675 pre-RBNZ level
The FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
16:03 UTC
Recovering from the RBNZ flush, higher lows since London · RSI 60 · price 0.56199
HL chain off the 0.5595 London low, testing the post-RBNZ range top.
The 01:00 UTC RBNZ hold flushed NZDUSD to 0.5583. Since the 0.5595 London low the pair has printed higher lows through the 0.5609 swing low in NY, and the 0.5622 session high stalled at the 38.2% fib of the decision drop. Price is now retesting the 0.5619 range top with RSI(14) near 60, two hours ahead of FOMC.
Support: 0.5619, 0.5609, 0.5595
Resistance: 0.5622, 0.5634
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5619 range top returns price to the post-RBNZ range
Break of the 0.5609 swing low and the rising lows trendline negates the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.5595 london low
Acceptance above the 0.5622 session high opens the fib 50% at 0.5634
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
15:47 UTC
Post-RBNZ range, higher lows into NY · RSI 62 · price 0.56194
0.5595–0.5622 range, price pressing the top.
After the RBNZ hold flushed price to the 0.5583 rbnz low, the pair has held a 0.5595–0.5622 range. The NY session is printing a higher-low chain from the 0.5595 London low to 0.5609 and is probing the 0.5622 session high, with RSI(14) near 62 and not stretched.
Support: 0.56087, 0.55952, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56223, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5622 session high breaks the post-RBNZ range top; the 0.5675 pre-RBNZ breakdown level is the next reference
Failure at the 0.5609 higher low and the higher-low line returns focus to the 0.5595 London low
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; the 0.5583 RBNZ low is the event-driven floor
15:32 UTC
Post-RBNZ range, rebuilding from London low · RSI 60 · price 0.56194
Higher lows since London, testing the range top.
The surprise RBNZ hold left a 0.5595–0.5620 range. London dipped to the 0.5595 london low, and NY has climbed back to the 0.5620 range top, the fifth test today, which sits just below the 38.2% fib of the RBNZ drop. Rising lows hold above the 0.5609 ny low, with RSI(14) near 60 and ATR around 4.4 pips into FOMC.
Support: 0.56087, 0.55952, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.5620, 0.5634, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5620 range top opens the 50% fib at 0.5634, then the 0.5675 pre-rbnz level
Break of the 0.5609 ny low and the rising lows line returns focus to the 0.5595 london low
Loss of the 0.5583 rbnz low exposes the 0.5560/0.5550 support zone
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
0.5595–0.5620 range since the RBNZ drop, range top under test.
The surprise RBNZ hold at 01:00 UTC drove a 92-pip drop to the 0.5583 rbnz low. Price has since held a 0.5595–0.5620 range. During NY hours price is testing the 0.5619 range top for a fourth time, on higher lows from the 0.5595 London low. RSI(14) is near 60, just under the 38.2% fib of the drop at 0.5622.
Support: 0.56087, 0.55952, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56193, 0.56217
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5619 range top and the 38.2% fib at 0.5622 breaks the post-RBNZ range
Loss of the 0.5609 pullback low breaks the higher lows chain and returns focus to the 0.5595 london low
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a break of the 0.5583 rbnz low would extend the post-RBNZ decline
15:03 UTC
Sideways after RBNZ drop, rising inside range · RSI 55 · price 0.56124
0.5583–0.5619 post-RBNZ range, higher low off London low.
The surprise RBNZ hold flushed NZDUSD to a 0.5583 rbnz low. Price has since held a 0.5583–0.5619 range, and the NY session was rejected at the 0.5619 range top for a fourth time before pulling back to a 0.5609 ny low. The higher low off the 0.5595 london low keeps a rising trendline intact inside the range, with RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 0.56087, 0.55952, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56193
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5619 range top breaks the post-RBNZ range
Loss of the 0.5609 ny low breaks the rising trendline from the london low and reopens 0.5595
A break below the 0.5583 rbnz low takes price out of the range
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
14:47 UTC
Post-RBNZ range, London-NY leg pulling back · RSI 53 · price 0.56106
0.5595–0.5619 range since the RBNZ flush; London higher lows, rejection at range top in NY.
The surprise RBNZ hold at 01:00 UTC flushed NZD from the pre-rbnz 0.5675 area to a 0.5583 rbnz low. Price has ranged between 0.5595 and 0.5619 since. London built higher lows off the 0.5595 london low, but the 0.5619 range top rejected twice in the first hours of NY. Price is now pinned at the ema20 near the 38.2% of the London-NY leg, just above the 0.5609 ny low and rising support.
Support: 0.56087, 0.55952, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56193, 0.5675
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5609 ny low and rising support exposes the 0.5595 london low and round number 0.5600
M15 close above the 0.5619 range top breaks the post-RBNZ range and leaves the 0.5675 pre-rbnz area as the next reference
Loss of the 0.5583 rbnz low puts the range read aside
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
14:18 UTC
Post-RBNZ range, recovery stalling at range top · RSI 50 · price 0.56133
0.5595–0.5619 range since the RBNZ drop; higher lows from London low, flat highs.
The RBNZ's surprise hold at 01:00 UTC drove a ~93-pip drop from the 0.5675 pre-rbnz area to the 0.5583 rbnz low. Since then price has held a 0.5595–0.5619 range. London printed the 0.5595 london low before a higher-low climb, but early NY was rejected at the 0.5619 range top for a third time, leaving price near 0.5613, just above EMA20 and below EMA50.
Support: 0.5604, 0.5595, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5619, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5619 range top breaks the post-RBNZ range; the 0.5675 pre-rbnz level is the next reference
Failure to hold the 0.5604 asian low, near the 61.8% of the london low–NY high rebound, brings the 0.5595 london low back into play
A break of the 0.5583 rbnz low exposes the 0.5560/0.5550 support zone
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
14:03 UTC
Recovering inside post-RBNZ range, higher lows since London · RSI 65 · price 0.56163
Range 0.5598–0.5619 since the RBNZ drop; NY pressing range top.
The RBNZ hold hit NZD at 01:00 UTC. Price dropped to a 0.5583 rbnz low and has since held a 0.5598–0.5619 range. London's dip to the 0.5595 london low was a false break, and NY has built a higher low at 0.5611 back into the range top. A marginal new high at 0.5619 is fading just under the 38.2% fib of the drop at 0.5622, with RSI(14) at about 65.
Support: 0.56109, 0.55952, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56193, 0.56217
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5622 38.2% fib breaks the range top
Loss of the 0.5611 higher low breaks the rising trendline from the london low
Back below the 0.5595 london low reopens the 0.5583 rbnz low
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and Warsh at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
13:47 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London · RSI 62 · price 0.56178
HH/HL chain from London low, testing session high.
The surprise RBNZ hold sent NZD/USD to a 0.5583 rbnz low. London's dip to the 0.5595 london low briefly broke below the post-decision Asian range and reversed. NY has built a higher-low chain along a rising trendline to retest the 0.5619 session high, which also sits at the 38.2% retrace of the RBNZ drop fib; RSI(14) is near 62, not stretched.
Support: 0.56109, 0.55952, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56193, 0.56318
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5619 session high exposes the 50% fib of the RBNZ drop at 0.5632
Break of the 0.5611 higher low and the rising trendline ends the NY HH/HL chain, putting the 0.5595 london low back in focus
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and Warsh at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hawkish lean leaves the 0.5583 rbnz low exposed
13:18 UTC
Post-RBNZ range, higher lows into range top · RSI 56 · price 0.56142
0.5595–0.5619 range since the 01:00 UTC drop; higher-low chain off the London low.
The RBNZ's surprise hold at 01:00 UTC dropped NZDUSD to the rbnz low at 0.5583. Price has since ranged 0.5595–0.5619, and the London low at 0.5595 started a higher-low sequence back into the range top, which capped three times. The London-NY transition finds price pressing that cap with the EMA50 overhead and RSI(14) near 56.
Support: 0.5606, 0.5595, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5619, 0.5634
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5619 range top breaks the post-RBNZ cap; the fib 50% of the RBNZ drop sits at 0.5634
Loss of the 0.5606 higher low breaks the intraday trendline and returns focus to the 0.5595 London low
A break of the 0.5583 rbnz low exposes the 0.5560/0.5550 support zone
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
13:04 UTC
Post-RBNZ range, recovering toward the top · RSI 69 · price 0.56163
Higher lows since the London low, pressing the Asia high.
The RBNZ's surprise hold dropped NZDUSD nearly 100 pips to the rbnz low at 0.5583, and price has held a 0.5583–0.5619 range since. London dipped to the london low at 0.5595 around 10:00 UTC. A higher-low recovery has carried price back to the Asia high at 0.5619 into the NY session, with RSI(14) near 69. The Asia high sits just under the 38.2% fib of the RBNZ drop at 0.5622 and the EMA50 near 0.5618.
Support: 0.56109, 0.55952, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56189, 0.56217
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 38.2% fib at 0.5622 breaks the post-RBNZ range top and the Asia high cap
Loss of the 0.5611 pullback low breaks the recovery line and points back toward the 0.5595 london low
A break of the 0.5583 rbnz low exposes the 0.5560/0.5550 support cited in the macro digest
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh's 18:30 UTC press conference could materially shift this read
0.5583–0.5619 range since the RBNZ drop; higher lows off the London low.
The surprise RBNZ hold at 01:00 UTC dropped NZD/USD about 90 pips to the rbnz low at 0.5583. Price has held a 0.5583–0.5619 range since. London printed a higher low at 0.5595, and the rebound into the NY open is now testing the post-RBNZ high and the 38.2% fib near 0.5620, where EMA50 also sits. RSI(14) is near 65.
Support: 0.5611, 0.55952, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56189, 0.5622
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the post-RBNZ high at 0.5619 and the 38.2% fib at 0.5622 breaks the range top and exposes the 50% retracement near 0.5634
A failure at 0.5619–0.5622 keeps the range intact, with the 0.5611 pullback low the first support
A break of the higher-low trendline and the 0.5595 London low puts the 0.5583 RBNZ low back in play
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
0.5595–0.5619 range since the RBNZ drop; price testing range top.
The RBNZ's surprise hold drove a 90-pip drop to the 0.5583 RBNZ low at 01:00 UTC. Price has rotated inside 0.5595–0.5619 since then. Late-London buyers stepped in at the 0.5595 London low and built higher lows back to the range top, where EMA50 and the 38.2% retrace of the RBNZ drop (~0.5622) sit just overhead; RSI(14) is near 67.
Support: 0.5606, 0.5595, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5619, 0.5634
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5619 range top clears the post-RBNZ range and exposes the 50% fib at 0.5634
Break of the intraday HL trendline near 0.5606 returns price to the London low at 0.5595
Loss of the 0.5583 RBNZ low would mark a lower low below the post-decision range
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
0.5595–0.5619 range after the RBNZ flush, lower high forming at 0.5610.
RBNZ's surprise hold at 01:00 UTC knocked NZDUSD about 90 pips to the 0.5583 rbnz low. The rebound was rejected twice at the 0.5619 range top, just under the 38.2% retrace of the drop, and London has since held a 0.5595 london low. Price sits at 0.5609 into the London-NY transition, testing the 0.5610 lower high, above EMA20 but below EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral near 56.
Support: 0.5595, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5610, 0.5619
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5619 range top clears the 38.2% retrace of the RBNZ drop
Failure at the 0.5610 lower high keeps the post-RBNZ range capped
Break of the 0.5595 london low exposes the 0.5583 rbnz low; below that, the 0.5560/50 floor
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
0.5595–0.5619 range after the RBNZ gap-down; London false break of the Asian low.
RBNZ's surprise hold at 01:00 UTC knocked NZDUSD about 90 pips to the rbnz low at 0.5583. Price has since ranged between 0.5598 and 0.5619. London briefly broke under the Asian range to a london low of 0.5595 and was rejected, and price is now near 0.5608, about half of the London leg retraced, with RSI(14) near 47.
Support: 0.55952, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56098, 0.56189
What it said to watch
M15 close below the london low at 0.5595 turns the false break into a fresh lower low, exposing the rbnz low at 0.5583
Acceptance above the session high at 0.5610 reopens the asian high at 0.5619, the top of the post-RBNZ range
Rejection from the 50–61.8% zone of the london leg fib keeps the range-bottom test in play into NY open
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Range 0.5595–0.5619 after the 01:00 UTC spike low.
RBNZ's surprise hold at 01:00 UTC drove a 93-pip drop to 0.5583. Price has since ranged 0.5595–0.5619. London was capped at the range top, then dipped to a 0.5595 london low that briefly undercut the Asian lows before reclaiming them. Price is now back inside the 50–61.8% fib of that London leg near 0.5607–0.5610.
Support: 0.55952, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56126, 0.56189
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5613 lower high puts the 0.5619 range top back in play
Loss of the 0.5595 london low reopens the 0.5583 rbnz low
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the 18:30 presser could materially shift this read; the digest flags the 0.5560/0.5550 floor beyond the rbnz low
Rejection at the 61.8% of the london leg fib (0.5610) keeps the range-bottom test in play
Lower highs inside the 0.5595–0.5619 post-RBNZ range.
RBNZ's surprise hold at 01:00 UTC knocked the pair about 90 pips to the rbnz low at 0.5583. Asia then built a range topped by the range high at 0.5619. London has capped at a lower high near 0.5613 and dipped briefly through the Asian floor to a london low of 0.5595 before recovering to 0.5603, still below both EMAs.
Support: 0.55952, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56126, 0.56189
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5595 london low reopens the 0.5583 rbnz low
Close above the 0.5613 lower high breaks the London downswing and puts the 0.5619 range high back in play
FOMC at 18:00 UTC, with the presser at 18:30, could break the post-RBNZ range in either direction
Lower highs since 07:15 UTC; London marginally below post-RBNZ Asian range low.
RBNZ's surprise hold at 01:00 UTC cut NZDUSD ~90 pips to a 0.5583 rbnz low, then the pair ranged 0.5598–0.5618 through Asia. Mid-London, a chain of lower highs off the 0.5618 asia high printed a 0.5595 london low, with price back near 0.5600 below both EMAs and RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 0.5595, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5604, 0.5618
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5604 lower high and the descending lower-highs line breaks the London sequence
Failure to hold the 0.5595 london low reopens the 0.5583 rbnz low; below that sits the 0.5560/0.5550 range floor
Reclaim of the 0.5618 asia high negates the post-RBNZ downtrend read
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the 18:30 UTC presser could materially shift this read
10:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 33 · price 0.55972
Post-RBNZ Asian range broken lower, lower highs since 07:15 UTC.
The RBNZ's surprise hold at 01:00 UTC dropped price from 0.5675 to a 0.5583 rbnz low. The post-decision Asian range (0.5598 to the 0.5619 Asian high) has since given way. London is printing lower highs under the descending trendline, and the 0.5600 round number is now capping after a fresh session low at 0.5595. RSI(14) sits near 33, soft but not oversold.
Support: 0.55952, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56079, 0.56189
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5600 round number and the 0.5608 lower high breaks the descending trendline read
Failure to hold the 0.5595 session low exposes the 0.5583 rbnz low
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
09:47 UTC
Downtrend, post-RBNZ range under pressure · RSI 36 · price 0.56016
0.5598–0.5619 post-RBNZ range, London lower highs pressing range low.
The RBNZ's surprise hold at 01:00 UTC flushed NZDUSD about 90 pips to 0.5583. The rebound stalled at the 0.5619 range high, just shy of the 38.2% fib. Since then London has printed lower highs under a falling trendline, and price is pressing the 0.5600 psych level and the 0.5598 range low with RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 0.55978, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56079, 0.56189
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5598 range low breaks the post-RBNZ range and exposes the 0.5583 rbnz low
Close above the 0.5608 lower high and the falling trendline negates the London lower-high sequence, with the 0.5619 range high next
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read during NY hours
09:17 UTC
Post-RBNZ flush, now sideways · RSI 49 · price 0.56064
Tight range 0.5602–0.5619 since the 01:00 UTC drop.
The RBNZ's surprise hold at 01:00 UTC drove a ~92-pip flush to the 0.5583 rbnz low. Since then price has held a 0.5602–0.5619 range just above the 0.5600 psych level, capped under the 38.2% fib. London saw a rejection near the range top at 0.5618, then probed the range low at 0.5602. RSI(14) is flat near 49 with price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.56024, 0.5600, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56189, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5602 range low and 0.5600 psych exposes the 0.5583 rbnz low
Close above the 0.5619 range top and the 38.2% fib at 0.5622 opens the path toward the 0.5675 pre-rbnz breakdown level
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
0.5598–0.5619 consolidation after range break lower.
The RBNZ's surprise hold at 01:00 UTC broke the pre-RBNZ range, which had a 0.5675 pre-rbnz low, and printed a 0.5583 RBNZ low. The bounce stalled at the 0.5619 range top, just under the 38.2% level of the RBNZ drop fib, and price has since held a 0.5598–0.5619 consolidation. Early London has tested the 0.5602 London low twice, with price sitting near the range floor and RSI(14) neutral at 47.
Support: 0.56024, 0.55978, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56189, 0.56745
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5598 swing low breaks the post-RBNZ consolidation and exposes the 0.5583 RBNZ low
Failure to hold the 0.5602 London low on a third test points to range-floor weakness
Close above the 0.5619 range top reopens the RBNZ drop fib 38.2% area, with the 0.5675 pre-rbnz low above
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and Warsh's press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
08:47 UTC
Post-RBNZ downtrend, now basing in a range · RSI 45 · price 0.56051
0.5598–0.5619 range since the RBNZ drop.
The RBNZ surprise hold at 01:00 UTC broke NZD/USD from 0.5675 to a 0.5583 low, and the pair has since held a 0.5598–0.5619 range. Early London tested the range top at 0.5618, was rejected, and has rotated back toward the London low at 0.5602. The rebound has stalled shy of the 38.2% retracement of the RBNZ drop near 0.5622.
Support: 0.56024, 0.55978, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56189, 0.56745
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5598 range low and 0.5600 psych exposes the 0.5583 RBNZ low
Close above the 0.5619 range top and 38.2% RBNZ drop fib near 0.5622 ends the range read; the pre-RBNZ breakdown at 0.5675 sits above
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC, presser 18:30, could materially shift this read
08:17 UTC
Post-shock range below broken 0.5675 base · RSI 41 · price 0.56032
0.5598–0.5619 range since RBNZ drop; price testing range low.
The RBNZ surprise hold at 01:00 UTC drove a 90-pip flush to 0.5583, and the rebound stalled at the 0.5619 range high, just under the 38.2% fib of the drop, with a second rejection there before London. Selling into the London open has pushed price back to the 0.5598–0.5604 range low area, sitting just above 0.5600.
Support: 0.55978, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56189, 0.56745
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5598 range low exposes the 0.5583 rbnz low
Recovery through the 0.5619 range high and 38.2% fib reopens the gap toward the 0.5675 pre-rbnz low
RBNZ presser language on December and FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Tight 0.5604–0.5619 range with rising lows beneath the 38.2% retracement.
The RBNZ's surprise hold at 2.75% during Asia broke NZD/USD below the pre-rbnz shelf at 0.5675 to a 0.5583 rbnz low. The rebound stalled just under the 38.2% fib near 0.5622, and price has since compressed into a 0.5604 range low to 0.5619 range top band with a rising-lows trendline off the 0.5598 swing low. Early London is trading mid-range, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 0.5604, 0.5598, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5619, 0.5622, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5604 range low and rising-lows line exposes the 0.5598 swing low, then the 0.5583 rbnz low
M15 close above the 0.5619 range top tests the 38.2% fib at 0.5622; the 0.5675 pre-rbnz shelf sits beyond
RBNZ presser language on a December hike and the FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:47 UTC
Post-shock consolidation after a sharp RBNZ-driven drop · RSI 58 · price 0.56132
Tight 0.5604–0.5619 range above 0.5600 since the post-decision bounce, highs flat, lows holding.
The RBNZ's surprise hold at 2.75% knocked NZD/USD about 90 pips to the 0.5583 rbnz low in the 01:00 UTC bar. Asia then built a 0.5604–0.5619 range back above the 0.5600 psych level. The range top is capping just under the 38.2% fib of the drop, and price is in the upper half into London open with RSI(14) near 58.
Support: 0.5604, 0.5600, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5619, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5619 range top and the 38.2% fib (0.5622) breaks the consolidation; the pre-rbnz 0.5675 area is the next reference
Failure at the 0.5604 range low exposes the 0.5600 psych level, then the 0.5583 rbnz low
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and Powell at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Tight range 0.5604–0.5619 under the 38.2% retracement, lows rising slightly.
The RBNZ's surprise hold at 2.75% at 01:00 UTC knocked NZD/USD about 92 pips to the 0.5583 rbnz low in one bar. Asia has since built a 0.5604–0.5619 range, with the rebound high capped just under the 38.2 fib at 0.5622. Price is pressing the range top into London open, above EMA20 but well below EMA50, with RSI(14) near 60.
Support: 0.56039, 0.5600, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56189, 0.56217, 0.56338
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5619 rebound high and the 38.2 fib at 0.5622 opens the 50% fib at 0.5634
Loss of the 0.5604 range floor and the 0.5600 psych level breaks the rising post-rbnz lows and re-exposes the 0.5583 rbnz low
RBNZ presser language on a December hike could break the range either way
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Powell at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
The RBNZ's surprise hold at 01:00 UTC drove a 92-pip RBNZ drop to the 0.5583 rbnz low. Asia has since compressed between the 0.5604 range floor and the 0.5619 session high, with higher lows along a rising trendline. Three rejections have come just under the fib 38.2 at 0.5622 heading into London open.
Support: 0.56039, 0.55978, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56189, 0.56217, 0.56338
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5619 session high and fib 38.2 at 0.5622 opens the fib 50 at 0.5634
Break of the 0.5604 range floor and rising trendline exposes the 0.5598 swing low, then the 0.5583 rbnz low
London open is the first liquidity test of the Asian range; FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:03 UTC
Downtrend, post-shock range · RSI 46 · price 0.56151
Tight 0.5604–0.5619 range after the RBNZ breakdown.
The RBNZ's surprise hold at 2.75% took NZD/USD down about 92 pips at 01:00 UTC to the rbnz low at 0.5583. Asia has since held a 0.5604–0.5619 range back above 0.5600 psych, with the range top sitting near the 38.2% fib of the drop. Price is pressing the range top and EMA20 into the London open, and RSI(14) is neutral at 46.
Support: 0.5604, 0.5600, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5619, 0.5675
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.5619 range top / 38.2% fib opens the path toward the 0.5675 breakdown pt
Failure to hold the 0.5604 range floor exposes 0.5600 psych and the 0.5583 rbnz low
RBNZ presser language on a December hike could break the Asia range
FOMC at 18:00 UTC, with the presser at 18:30, could materially shift this read
06:48 UTC
Downtrend after RBNZ shock, now compressing · RSI 43 · price 0.56139
The RBNZ surprise hold at 01:00 UTC broke yesterday's 0.5675–0.5708 range with a 92-pip bar to the 0.5583 rbnz low. Since then the Asia session has compressed into a pennant between the 0.5604 range low and the 0.5619 post-RBNZ high. Price is pressing the pennant top ahead of London open, just under EMA20, with RSI(14) near 43 and ATR down to about 6.5 pips.
Support: 0.5604, 0.5600, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56189, 0.56745
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5619 post-RBNZ high breaks the pennant top and puts 0.5675 breakdown level in view
Break below the 0.5604 range low and round number 0.5600 reopens the 0.5583 rbnz low
London open (~08:00 UTC) liquidity is likely to resolve the pennant
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and Powell at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:33 UTC
Post-RBNZ selloff, basing in a tight range · RSI 44 · price 0.56148
Lower highs from 0.5619, flat lows near 0.5604.
The RBNZ surprise hold at 01:00 UTC took NZDUSD 92 pips lower to the rbnz low at 0.5583. Asia has since held a 0.5604–0.5619 range. Price is pressing the descending trendline off the 0.5619 rebound high ahead of London open, with the 38.2% fib at 0.5622 just above.
Support: 0.56045, 0.5600, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.5616, 0.56189, 0.5622
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5619 rebound high and the 38.2% fib at 0.5622 breaks the lower-high sequence
Repeated rejection at the trendline keeps the range low at 0.5604 and 0.5600 psych in focus
Loss of 0.5598 reopens the rbnz low at 0.5583
FOMC statement 18:00 UTC and Powell 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Tight Asia session range 0.5604–0.5619 after an RBNZ drop, lower highs pressing the floor.
The RBNZ's surprise hold at 2.75% broke the pre-rbnz low at 0.5675 and knocked NZDUSD to 0.5583 in the 01:00 UTC bar. Since then the Asia session has held a 0.5604–0.5619 range, with the bounce high stalling just under the 38.2% of the rbnz drop fib. Lower highs are compressing price toward the range floor; RSI(14) near 41 and ATR has eased to about 6 pips.
Support: 0.5604, 0.5600, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5619, 0.5675
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.5604 range floor exposes the 0.5600 round number and then the 0.5583 rbnz low.
A close above the 0.5619 bounce high and the lower highs line would end the compression read.
London open is the first liquidity test of the Asian range.
The RBNZ presser today and the FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read.
The RBNZ's surprise hold at 01:00 UTC dropped NZDUSD about 90 pips in one bar. Price broke below the pre-rbnz 0.5675 base and printed the rbnz low at 0.5583. Since then Asia has compressed between the 0.5604 range base and a bounce high of 0.5619, which stalled just under the 38.2% retrace of the drop. The pair has printed a lower high at 0.5611 heading into London open, with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 0.5604, 0.5600, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5611, 0.5619, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5604 range base exposes 0.5600 psych and the 0.5583 rbnz low
Close above the lower highs line and 0.5619 bounce high opens the 38.2% retrace near 0.5622
RBNZ press conference today could shift the read; a December hike signal would test the post-drop range top
FOMC at 18:00 UTC with presser at 18:30 UTC is the next major volatility event
Tight 0.5598–0.5619 range after RBNZ spike, lower highs pressing a double low.
RBNZ's surprise hold at 01:00 UTC broke the 0.5677–0.5708 range in one bar. Price spiked to the rbnz low at 0.5583, and the rebound high at 0.5619 stalled under the fib 38.2 at 0.5622. Late Asia session is compressing, with a lower high at 0.5611 and a double low at 0.5605. RSI(14) is near 36 and price sits below both EMAs.
Support: 0.56046, 0.55978, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.5611, 0.56189, 0.56217
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.5605 double low brings the 0.5598 swing low and 0.5600 into play; failure there exposes the rbnz low at 0.5583
Close above the 0.5611 lower high reopens the 0.5619 rebound high and the fib 38.2 at 0.5622
London open is likely to expand the compressed Asian range; ATR has bled to ~7 pips
FOMC at 18:00 UTC (presser 18:30) could materially shift this read via USD
Post-drop range 0.5605–0.5619 with lower highs under 38.2% fib.
The RBNZ's surprise hold at 2.75% knocked NZDUSD about 90 pips at 01:00 UTC. The drop broke through the 0.5675 pre-drop low and reached 0.5583, the RBNZ low. The rebound reclaimed 0.5600 psych but stalled at the 0.5619 bounce high, below the 38.2% fib, and late in the Asia session price is coiling above the 0.5605 intraday low under a lower-highs line with RSI(14) at 36.
Support: 0.56046, 0.5600, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56189, 0.56745
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5605 intraday low exposes 0.5600 psych and the 0.5583 RBNZ low
An M15 close above the 0.5619 bounce high and the lower-highs line puts the 38.2% fib near 0.5622 in play, with the 0.5675 pre-drop low above
A firm December-hike signal at the RBNZ press conference could materially shift this read
FOMC at 18:00 UTC, which sits outside this session, is the next major volatility risk
Pennant of lower highs / higher lows after RBNZ drop.
The RBNZ's surprise hold at 2.75% sent NZDUSD down about 93 pips to the rbnz low at 0.5583 in the 01:00 UTC bar. The bounce stalled at the post-RBNZ high of 0.5619, just under the 38.2% fib and EMA20 near 0.5620. Late in the Asia session, price has compressed into a pennant: lower highs at 0.5618 and 0.5616, a swing low at 0.5598 and a double low at 0.5605, with 0.5600 reclaimed for now.
Support: 0.56046, 0.55978, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56162, 0.56189
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5616 lower high and 0.5619 post-RBNZ high breaks the pennant and clears the 38.2% fib
Failure to hold the 0.5605 double low reopens the 0.5598 swing low, then the 0.5583 rbnz low
London open could resolve the pennant; RBNZ presser headlines on December hike odds remain a swing factor
FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via the USD
Tight post-RBNZ range below 0.5619, lower highs over flat lows near 0.5605.
The RBNZ's surprise hold at 2.75% dropped NZDUSD roughly 92 pips in the 01:00 UTC bar to a 0.5583 rbnz low. The rebound stalled at the 0.5619 rebound high, just shy of the 38.2% retrace of the drop. Late Asia has since compressed into lower highs near 0.5616 over a twin low at 0.5605, with price under EMA20 and RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 0.56046, 0.55978, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56162, 0.56189
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5605 twin low exposes the 0.5600 psych area and the 0.5583 rbnz low
Close above the lower highs and descending trendline at 0.5616 reopens the 0.5619 rebound high and the 38.2% retrace near 0.5622
London open in ~2h is the first liquid test of the post-RBNZ range
RBNZ presser signals on a December hike, then FOMC at 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
The RBNZ's surprise hold at 2.75% dropped NZDUSD about 92 pips in a single Asia-session bar, through 0.5600 psych to an event low of 0.5583. The rebound stalled at 0.5619, the rebound high, and successive lower highs now press price onto the 0.5605 intraday low. RSI(14) is near 35 and price is below both EMAs.
Support: 0.56046, 0.5600, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56189, 0.5675
What it said to watch
An M15 close below 0.5600 psych exposes the 0.5583 event low
A close above the lower-highs trendline and the 0.5619 rebound high opens a path back toward the 0.5675 pre-RBNZ area
London open may set a new range off the 0.5605 intraday low
The FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
04:32 UTC
Downtrend after RBNZ shock, now consolidating · RSI 35 · price 0.56077
Post-RBNZ pennant: lower highs from 0.5619, higher lows from 0.5598.
The RBNZ's surprise hold at 2.75% broke the overnight 0.5677–0.5685 range in one 01:00 UTC bar, knocking NZDUSD to a 0.5583 rbnz low. Through the Asia session it has coiled into a pennant between a 0.5598 range low and 0.5619 range high. Price is holding just above 0.5600 and below the ema20 near 0.5625, with RSI(14) near 35 and ATR(14) contracting toward 8 pips.
Support: 0.5606, 0.55978, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.5616, 0.56189, 0.5625
What it said to watch
M15 close below the pennant base near 0.5606 and the 0.5598 range low puts the 0.5583 rbnz low back in play
Close above the pennant top and the 0.5619 range high would open a test of the ema20 near 0.5625
RBNZ presser follow-through on December hike odds could break the pennant either way
FOMC at 18:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
04:17 UTC
Downtrend after RBNZ shock, Asia stabilising · RSI 35 · price 0.56082
Pre-decision range broken lower, 0.5598–0.5619 consolidation above 0.5600.
The RBNZ's surprise hold at 2.75% knocked NZDUSD 92 pips in a single bar to the 0.5583 RBNZ low. That broke the 0.5677–0.5707 range that held through London and NY, with the 0.5677 pre-RBNZ low now well overhead. Asia has since built a 0.5598–0.5619 consolidation just above 0.5600 psych, capped beneath the post-RBNZ high, with EMA20 near 0.5627 overhead and RSI(14) near 35.
Support: 0.56046, 0.5600, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56189, 0.5627, 0.56767
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5619 post-RBNZ high and EMA20 near 0.5627 opens the 38.2% fib retracement at 0.5630
Failure to hold the 0.5605 swing low and 0.5600 psych exposes the 0.5583 RBNZ low
Further RBNZ commentary firming a December hike could reprice NZD sharply in either direction
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC later Wednesday is the next major USD driver
Post-event pennant: lower highs from 0.5619, higher lows from 0.5583.
The RBNZ's surprise hold at 2.75% broke the Asian low near 0.5675 and took price to the rbnz low at 0.5583 in a single bar. The Asia-session rebound has reclaimed 0.5600 psych but stalled at the post-RBNZ high of 0.5619, just under the 38.2% fib of the drop, and is now coiling in a pennant below EMA20 with RSI(14) at 37.
Support: 0.56046, 0.5600, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56189, 0.5630, 0.56745
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5619 post-RBNZ high and the 38.2% fib (~0.5622) breaks the pennant top and exposes EMA20 near 0.5630
Loss of the 0.5605 higher low, then 0.5600 psych, breaks the pennant base and puts the 0.5583 rbnz low back in play
The Asian low at 0.5675 is the breakdown point; it stays out of reach unless the 50% fib (~0.5634) is cleared
RBNZ presser tone on a December hike and the FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
The RBNZ's surprise hold at 01:00 UTC broke the 0.5677–0.5707 range that held through London and NY, dropping NZDUSD from 0.5675 to the 0.5583 rbnz low in one bar. Asia has since reclaimed 0.5600 and is compressing into a pennant: lower highs under the 0.5619 rebound high, which sits just below the 38.2% fib, and a 0.5605 higher low above the 0.5598 swing low. RSI(14) at 37 with price under both EMAs.
Support: 0.56046, 0.55978, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56189, 0.56745
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5605 higher low breaks the pennant base and exposes the 0.5598 swing low / 0.5600 psych
Close above the 0.5619 rebound high and 38.2% fib opens the path toward the 0.5675 pre-RBNZ low
RBNZ press conference today: a firm December hike signal or a non-committal tone could materially shift this read
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC, presser 18:30 UTC, is the next USD-side driver
The RBNZ's surprise hold at 2.75% broke the prior Asian range at 01:00 UTC. The bar dropped about 93 pips to the rbnz low at 0.5583. The rebound reclaimed the 0.5600 round number but has twice stalled at the 0.5618–0.5619 rebound high, just under the 38.2% fib of the drop. Mid-Asia session, price is compressing between that cap and a rising swing low at 0.5605, with the ema20 near 0.5632 overhead.
Support: 0.56046, 0.5600, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56189, 0.5632
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5600 round number reopens the rbnz low at 0.5583
Close above the 0.5619 rebound high and 38.2% fib exposes ema20 near 0.5632
RBNZ press conference today: firm December-hike guidance could extend the rebound
FOMC at 18:00 UTC, presser 18:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Pre-RBNZ range broken lower; consolidation 0.5598–0.5619 with a higher low.
The RBNZ's surprise hold at 01:00 UTC broke the Asia session range at 0.5675–0.5685 in a ~92-pip bar to the RBNZ low at 0.5583. Price has since reclaimed the 0.5600 round number and is consolidating with a higher low at 0.5598. Rejection came twice at the 0.5619 rebound high, just under the 38.2% fib at 0.5622, and price remains below EMA20/50.
Support: 0.55978, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56189, 0.56217, 0.56745
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5598 higher low exposes the 0.5583 RBNZ low and breaks the rebound-lows line
Close above the 38.2% fib at 0.5622 opens the 50% retrace near 0.5634; the pre-RBNZ low at 0.5675 is the range-break retest
RBNZ presser today could firm or fade December hike pricing and move 0.5600 either way
FOMC at 18:00 UTC (presser 18:30) could materially shift this read via USD
03:03 UTC
Sharp downtrend after RBNZ, early rebound · RSI 31 · price 0.56106
The RBNZ's surprise hold at 2.75% broke the 0.5675–0.5707 pre-decision range during Asia, with one 93-pip bar printing the RBNZ low at 0.5583. The rebound has reclaimed the 0.5600 round number and set a higher low at 0.5598. It has stalled twice near the 0.5619 rebound high, just under the fib 38.2% at 0.5622.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56189, 0.56338
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 0.5600 round number and the 0.5598 higher low reopens the RBNZ low at 0.5583
A close above the 0.5619 rebound high and the fib 38.2% exposes the fib 50% at 0.5634
The tone of the RBNZ presser on a December hike could materially shift this read; FOMC at 18:00 UTC is the next major risk
02:47 UTC
Downtrend after RBNZ shock, early Asia stabilisation · RSI 32 · price 0.56149
Pre-decision base broken lower; post-drop higher low at 0.5598, rebound capped near 0.5619.
The RBNZ's surprise hold at 01:00 UTC broke the 0.5675–0.5685 pre-decision base. NZD/USD dropped ~92 pips to the RBNZ low at 0.5583 in a single bar. Asia session has since reclaimed the 0.5600 round number with a higher low at 0.5598, but the bounce stalled twice at the 0.5617–0.5619 rebound high, below the 38.2% fib of the drop at 0.5622. RSI(14) is lifting off 32, price sits under both EMAs, and ATR(14) is about 10 pips.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56189, 0.56338
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5619 rebound high and the 0.5622 fib 38.2% opens the fib 50% at 0.5634
Close back below the 0.5600 round number and the 0.5598 higher low exposes the RBNZ low at 0.5583
RBNZ post-meeting presser is imminent; FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower; 0.5598–0.5619 holding range.
The RBNZ's surprise hold at 2.75% broke the Asian range lower in a ~90-pip 01:00 UTC bar to the 0.5583 rbnz low. The bounce stalled at the 0.5619 bounce high, just under the 38.2% retracement of the rbnz drop. Mid-Asia session, price is consolidating on the 0.5600 round number, which has held twice, with RSI(14) at 28 and ATR(14) expanded to ~10 pips.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56189, 0.56338
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5600 round number puts the 0.5583 rbnz low back in play
Close above the 0.5619 bounce high opens the rbnz drop fib 50% at 0.5634
RBNZ presser is imminent; a firm signal of a December hike could extend the bounce, while a non-committal tone keeps 0.5600 under pressure
FOMC at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
The RBNZ's surprise hold at 2.75% sent the pair about 92 pips lower in one Asia session bar, from the pre-rbnz 0.5675 area to 0.5583 (rbnz low), unwinding a 0.5675–0.5708 range left by NY. The rebound high at 0.5619 stalled just under the 38.2% fib, and price is back on the 0.5600 psych handle with RSI(14) near 24.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56189, 0.56745
What it said to watch
RBNZ presser is imminent; a December-hike signal or a non-committal tone could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.5600 psych exposes the 0.5583 rbnz low
Reclaim of the 0.5619 rebound high and the 38.2% fib opens the path back toward the pre-rbnz 0.5675 area
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC is the next major risk for the session structure
Post-RBNZ range break; higher lows off the spike low.
The RBNZ surprise hold at 2.75% (01:00 UTC) broke the overnight 0.5678–0.5685 Asian range and flushed NZDUSD about 92 pips from the 0.5675 breakdown level to a 0.5583 spike low. Price has since put in higher lows, and the Asia rebound stalled at 0.5619. That is roughly a 30% retrace, still below the 38.2% fib at 0.5622, and price remains under both EMAs.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56189, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5619 rebound high and the 38.2% fib at 0.5622 opens the 50% retrace near 0.5634
Loss of the 0.5600 round number and the rebound line puts the 0.5583 spike low back in focus
Any recovery toward the 0.5675 breakdown level tests the prior Asian range floor from below
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC (presser 18:30) could materially shift this read
The surprise RBNZ hold at 2.75% (vs 3% priced) hit the 01:00 UTC bar in the Asia session. Price broke the 0.5675 pre-rbnz low and flushed ~92 pips to the 0.5583 rbnz low. The rebound has stalled at the 0.5611 bounce high, only near the 23.6% level of the drop, with the session already heavy after the London high at 0.5708 faded during NY hours.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56105, 0.56217, 0.56745
What it said to watch
Hold of the 0.5600 round number keeps the bounce structure intact; a close back below it puts the 0.5583 rbnz low in play
M15 close above 0.5611 bounce high and the 38.2% fib at 0.5622 would signal a deeper retracement toward 0.5634 (50%)
Pre-rbnz low at 0.5675 is the upper boundary of the post-decision move
Any RBNZ commentary on December hike conditions could shift the read ahead of the 18:00 UTC FOMC decision
ATR is inflated by the decision bar, so expected bar ranges will compress if Asian range trade resumes
01:32 UTC
Sharp downtrend, early bounce off decision low · RSI 14 · price 0.56044
RBNZ flush broke the pre-decision range; first higher close since.
The RBNZ decision at 01:00 UTC flushed the pair about 93 pips in one bar, from the 0.5675 breakdown point to a 0.5583 rbnz low. The move fits the digest's cautious-hike, sell-the-fact scenario and extends a fade from the 0.5708 NY high. Price has since reclaimed the 0.5600 round number early in the Asia session, with RSI(14) near 14 deeply oversold and ATR(14) jumping to about 10 pips.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56217, 0.56338, 0.5675
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5622 fib 38.2 would mark a deeper retracement of the decision drop
Rejection at the fib 50 near 0.5634 keeps the bounce corrective
Failure to hold 0.5600 round number reopens the 0.5583 rbnz low
Governor Breman's framing of the soft CPI and OCR track could extend or reverse the decision move
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.5708 NY high; pre-decision 0.5675–0.5685 Asian range broken lower.
The 01:00 UTC RBNZ decision bar dropped 92 pips from the 0.5675 pre-rbnz low to a 0.5583 spike low, extending the lower-highs slide from the 0.5708 NY-session high. It closed just under the 0.5600 psych level with a 16-pip lower wick. RSI(14) sits near 15 and ATR(14) has jumped to about 10 pips.
Support: 0.55827
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56745, 0.56849
What it said to watch
A close back above 0.5600 psych would mark the 0.5583 spike low as a rejection of the extreme
A break below the 0.5583 spike low extends the post-RBNZ downtrend
The 38.2–50% retrace of the RBNZ leg (0.5622–0.5634) is the first upside test. The pre-rbnz low at 0.5675 and the asian high at 0.5685 sit above it
The Governor's press conference can extend or unwind the decision spike within the next hour
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
00:47 UTC
Downtrend from 0.5707, flattening into RBNZ · RSI 46 · price 0.56801
NZDUSD saw another rejection at the 0.5700 pivot, rolling over from 0.57075 in the London-NY transition into a lower-high slide that bottomed at the 0.56767 swing low late in the NY session, with the firm dollar into the Fed capping the pair. Early Asia is compressing between the 0.5678 session low and the 0.5685 session high, RSI(14) near 46 and ATR about 3 pips, minutes before the RBNZ decision.
Support: 0.56779, 0.56767
Resistance: 0.56849, 0.56885, 0.5700
What it said to watch
RBNZ decision and MPS at 01:00 GMT could break the early-Asia box in either direction
M15 close above the 0.5685 session high, then the fib 38.2 at 0.5689, would challenge the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.56767 swing low extends the lower-low chain from the 0.5700 pivot rejection
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC later Wednesday could materially shift any post-RBNZ move
Lower highs from 0.5707, tight Asian range 0.5677–0.5685.
Lower highs off the 0.5707 London high fed a NY-session slide to the 0.5677 Asian low, with dollar firmness into the Fed keeping the pair under the 0.5700 round number. Asia is now compressed in a 0.5677–0.5685 band beneath the descending trendline, ATR near 3 pips, ahead of the RBNZ decision.
Support: 0.56767
Resistance: 0.56848, 0.56885, 0.5700
What it said to watch
RBNZ decision at 01:00 GMT could break the 0.5677–0.5685 Asian range and expand ATR sharply
M15 close above the 0.5685 asian high and the 38.2% fib at 0.5689 breaks the descending trendline and reopens the 0.5700 round number
Failure to hold the 0.5677 asian low extends the lower-low sequence
Fed decision later Wednesday could cap any post-RBNZ bounce
00:03 UTC
Downtrend, compressing into the event · RSI 44 · price 0.56801
Lower highs from 0.57075 session high; tight post-NY range above 0.56767.
The London rally stalled at the 0.57075 session high, another rejection near the 0.5700 psych pivot. NY then sold off in a lower-high chain as the USD bid held into FOMC, printing a 0.56767 swing low after NY close. Early Asia is pinned near 0.5680 in a roughly 8-pip box under the 0.56845 bounce high, with ATR(14) compressed to about 2.7 pips ahead of the RBNZ decision.
Support: 0.56767
Resistance: 0.56845, 0.56873, 0.5700
What it said to watch
RBNZ decision and MPS at 01:00 GMT is the next driver and will likely blow out the current 2.7-pip ATR
M15 close above the 0.56873 lower high breaks the NY descending sequence
Failure to hold the 0.56767 swing low extends the lower-low chain
Reclaim of the 0.5700 psych pivot would undo the NY decline