Post-RBNZ consolidation with higher lows under a flat 0.5635-0.5638 cap.
The week's dominant move came in Wednesday's Asia session, when RBNZ's surprise 4-3 hold knocked NZDUSD from the 0.5675 area to a 0.5583 RBNZ low. Since then price has retraced to the 38.2% fib of the RBNZ drop on higher lows, while supply has capped the 0.5635-0.5638 range top three times, with EMA(50) sitting just beneath it near 0.5631. Thursday's hot US GDP pushed the pair to the 0.5607 range low early in NY, but demand stepped in and price closed back above a rising EMA(20) at 0.5625 with RSI(14) near 56.
Support: 0.5625, 0.5607, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5638, 0.5645, 0.5670
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5638 range top opens the 50% fib at 0.5645, then the Monday low near 0.5670
Failure to hold EMA(20) at 0.5625 returns focus to the 0.5607 range low
Break of the 0.5607 range low and the higher-low trendline exposes the 0.5583 RBNZ low
US ECI (Fri 12:30 UTC) and Daly/Musalem remarks could materially shift this read
22:04 UTC
Downtrend this week, rebound stalling at range top · RSI 56 · price 0.56309
Higher-low consolidation under 0.5638 after RBNZ drop.
The week opened near 0.5703 and topped at 0.5708 on Tuesday. The RBNZ's surprise hold then produced a 92-pip bar in Wednesday's Asia session down to the 0.5583 RBNZ low. Since then price has built a higher-lows consolidation between the 0.5607 Thursday low and the 0.5638 range top, which sits on the 38.2% fib of the RBNZ drop and close to EMA(50) near 0.5632. Thursday's dip after the firm US GDP print was bought back during NY hours, and with RSI(14) at 56 and price above EMA(20) at 0.5625, the rebound is intact but has been capped three times.
Support: 0.5625, 0.5607, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5638, 0.5645, 0.5670
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5638 range top opens the fib 50% at 0.5645 and the Monday low near 0.5670
Failure to hold EMA(20) at 0.5625 puts the higher-lows line and the 0.5607 Thursday low back in play
A break below the Thursday low returns focus to the 0.5583 RBNZ low and the 0.5600 handle
US ECI Fri 12:30 UTC (f/c 0.8%) and Daly/Musalem remarks could materially shift this read
21:06 UTC
Post-RBNZ downtrend, recovering inside a range · RSI 61 · price 0.5632
Higher lows inside a 0.5595-0.5638 range below the 38.2% fib.
Wednesday's surprise RBNZ hold knocked NZDUSD out of its 0.5670-0.5707 range to a 0.5583 RBNZ low in the Asia session. Price has since rotated inside a 0.5595-0.5638 range, well below the 0.5695 weekly open. Higher lows held into today's NY-session dip to the 0.5607 GDP low after the US Q3 beat, and the recovery back over EMA(20) leaves price pressing the range top at the 38.2% fib of the week's drop, with RSI(14) near 61 and a flattening EMA(50) sitting right at price.
Support: 0.5624, 0.5607, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5638, 0.5670, 0.5695
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5638 range top opens the 50% fib near 0.5645 and the 0.5670 Monday low
Failure to hold the 0.5607 GDP low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 0.5583 RBNZ low
Loss of EMA(20) near 0.5624 returns price to the middle of the post-RBNZ range
US Q3 ECI (Fri 12:30 UTC) and Fed's Daly/Musalem could materially shift this read
Price remains below the 0.5695 weekly open; the pre-RBNZ range has not been reclaimed
Wednesday's Asia-session RBNZ surprise hold took the pair from the 0.5707 week high to the 0.5583 rbnz low. The rebound has since stalled at the 38.2% fib and EMA(50), with lower highs at the 0.5635–0.5638 range top and higher lows at 0.5595 and then Thursday's 0.5607 thu low, which held through the US GDP/PCE release before the NY session lifted price back above EMA(20). RSI(14) near 58 is mid-range, with no divergence showing on the pennant.
Support: 0.56067, 0.5600, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56383, 0.56451, 0.57075
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5638 range top and the fib 50% at 0.5645 breaks the pennant higher, with the 0.5707 week high as the next reference
Loss of the 0.5607 thu low breaks the pennant lows trendline and brings the 0.5600 psych level and 0.5583 rbnz low back into view
US Q3 ECI (Fri 12:30 UTC) and Fed's Daly/Musalem later Friday could resolve the pennant; ANZ-Roy Morgan confidence at 21:00 UTC today is a lesser risk
13:04 UTC
Downtrend after RBNZ shock, consolidating near lows · RSI 38 · price 0.56101
Post-break consolidation 0.5608–0.5638 with lower highs since Thursday's Asia session.
The RBNZ's surprise hold in Wednesday's Asia session broke the 0.5670–0.5707 range that had held since the weekly open. A 90-pip H1 bar printed the 0.5583 rbnz low. The rebound during NY hours into the FOMC stalled at the 0.5637 rebound cap, between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the drop, and Thursday's lower highs have kept price under EMA(20) near 0.5618 while it presses the 0.5608 thu low.
Support: 0.5608, 0.5600, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5618, 0.5637, 0.5670
What it said to watch
US Q3 GDP and PCE actuals, released 12:30 GMT and still pending, could materially shift this read in the first hour of NY
An H1 close below the 0.5608 thu low and the 0.5600 round number exposes the 0.5583 rbnz low
A close above the 0.5637 rebound cap breaks the lower-high trendline and brings the 0.5670 range floor back into view
Repeated rejection at EMA(20) near 0.5618 would extend the lower-high sequence
Post-drop consolidation narrowing between rising lows and lower highs.
NZDUSD opened the week at 0.5695 and ranged 0.5670–0.5708 until the RBNZ's surprise 4-3 hold triggered a ~90-pip hourly collapse to the 0.5583 rbnz low. The rebound stalled at the 0.5637 rebound cap, near the 38.2% retracement of the weekly drop, and has since printed lower highs while rising lows hold beneath, a tightening pennant with price back below EMA(20) near 0.5620 and RSI(14) around 43. London's dip to the 0.5608 session low tested the rising-lows line just above psych 0.5600 as the USD firmed ahead of US data.
Support: 0.5608, 0.5600, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5620, 0.5637, 0.5695
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 0.5608 session low and psych 0.5600 breaks the rising-lows line and exposes the 0.5583 rbnz low
Close above EMA(20) at 0.5620 and then the 0.5637 rebound cap breaks the lower-highs line and opens the 0.5695 weekly open
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Any slippage in ~90% December RBNZ hike pricing adds pressure on the rising-lows line
10:04 UTC
Downtrend after RBNZ gap lower, rebound fading · RSI 37 · price 0.56094
Lower high at 0.5637 under the 0.5638 rebound high, price pressing higher-lows line.
Monday and Tuesday held a 0.5670–0.5707 range under the week high. In Wednesday's Asia session the RBNZ's surprise 4-3 hold broke that range, driving a ~90-pip drop to the 0.5583 rbnz low and flipping H1 into a downtrend. The Fed-driven NY rebound stalled at the 0.5638 rebound high, close to the 38.2% retracement of the RBNZ drop, and Thursday's Asia session printed a marginal lower high at 0.5637. Price has since slipped back below EMA(20) near 0.5620 with RSI(14) in the high 30s, and London is now testing the higher-lows line drawn from the 0.5595 swing low.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55952, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.5620, 0.56383, 0.57075
What it said to watch
H1 close below 0.5600 psych and the 0.5595 swing low would confirm the higher-lows line has failed and reopen the 0.5583 rbnz low
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot print adds USD pressure into the 0.5600 area
Reclaiming ema20 and closing above the 0.5638 rebound high would invalidate the lower-highs sequence and return focus to the 0.5670–0.5707 pre-RBNZ range below the week high
A sustained break of the 0.5583 rbnz low would extend the downtrend toward the 0.5567/0.5550 YTD-low zone
09:06 UTC
Downtrend after RBNZ gap lower, now consolidating · RSI 42 · price 0.56191
Post-shock range 0.5595–0.5638, higher lows under a flat cap.
Wednesday's surprise RBNZ hold knocked NZDUSD roughly 90 pips lower in a single Asia-session bar, from the 0.5675 pre-RBNZ level to the 0.5583 RBNZ low. That move ended a Monday–Tuesday range capped near 0.5707. Since then price has built a 0.5595–0.5638 consolidation with higher lows, but both the post-Fed NY rebound and Thursday's Asia retest stalled at the 0.5637 range top, just above the 38.2% retracement of the drop. Price now sits just under EMA(20) at 0.5622 with RSI(14) near 42, holding today's low at 0.5611 into London as USD firms ahead of US data.
Support: 0.56106, 0.55952, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56224, 0.56383, 0.5675
What it said to watch
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 0.5637 range top exposes the 0.5675 pre-RBNZ breakdown level
Break of today's low at 0.5611 and the higher-lows trendline puts the 0.5595 swing low and 0.5583 RBNZ low back in focus
Repeated H1 closes back above EMA(20) at 0.5622 would shift trade toward the upper half of the range
Post-gap flag: higher lows under a 0.5638 range top.
The week opened at 0.5695 and ranged 0.5670–0.5707 through Monday and Tuesday. RBNZ's surprise hold in Wednesday's Asia session then broke price from the 0.5675 breakdown area to the 0.5583 rbnz low in a single bar. Since then the pair has built a tight flag of higher lows, from the 0.5595 swing low up to today's 0.5611 session low. Supply has capped the 0.5638 range top twice, after the Fed hold in NY hours and again in today's Asian range, and price now sits just under the ema20 with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 0.5611, 0.5595, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5622, 0.5638, 0.5675
What it said to watch
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 0.5611 session low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 0.5595 swing low
Failure to hold the 0.5583 rbnz low confirms a lower-low and extends the downtrend
Sustained hold above the ema20 and a close through the 0.5638 range top would put the 0.5675 breakdown level in view
Post-drop range 0.5595–0.5638 below EMA20; lower high, rising line breached.
The early-week 0.5670–0.5708 range gave way in Wednesday's Asia session, when the surprise RBNZ hold took the pair from 0.5675 to a 0.5583 week low in a single bar. Since then the 0.5595 swing low has held, but the 0.5638 range top capped both the post-FOMC spike and this morning's Asia attempt, close to the 38.2% retracement of the week's drop. Price now sits at the Asia low just under EMA(20) near 0.5622, with RSI(14) at 43 and the rising line off the swing low already breached.
Support: 0.5616, 0.5595, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5622, 0.5638, 0.5675
What it said to watch
US Core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~6.5h) could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 0.5595 swing low exposes the 0.5583 week low and the 0.5560/0.5550 support floor
H1 close above the 0.5638 range top breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the path toward the 0.5675 pre-RBNZ level
Failure to reclaim EMA20 at 0.5622 keeps the post-drop consolidation pressed against the Asia low
Higher lows since Wed breakdown, capped at 0.5638.
Wednesday's surprise RBNZ hold broke the Monday–Tuesday 0.5670–0.5708 range in the Asia session, with one bar slicing to the RBNZ low at 0.5583, about 125 pips off the 0.5708 week high. Higher lows since then at 0.5595 in London, the 0.5609 FOMC low and today's 0.5618 Asia low form a rising line. Every rebound has stalled at the 0.5638 twin highs, between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the RBNZ drop. Price now sits just below EMA(20) at 0.5624, with RSI(14) slipping to 43 as the rising line is tested.
Support: 0.5618, 0.5609, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5624, 0.5638, 0.5675
What it said to watch
H1 close below the rising line and 0.5618 asia low exposes the 0.5609 fomc low, then the 0.5583 rbnz low
H1 close above the 0.5638 twin highs opens the 50% fib near 0.5645 and the 0.5675 pre-RBNZ breakdown level
US Q3 GDP and core PCE at 12:30 GMT (~7h) could materially shift this read
Failure to reclaim EMA(20) at 0.5624 keeps the post-RBNZ rebound read as a stall rather than a recovery
Post-break flag: higher lows from 0.5595, lower highs at 0.5638.
The RBNZ's surprise 4-3 hold broke the 0.5670–0.5708 range that ran from Monday to Tuesday. A single ~92-pip H1 bar in Wednesday's Asia session printed the 0.5583 rbnz low. Since then, price has rebuilt in a 0.5595–0.5638 band, with higher lows from the London low at 0.5595, while the 0.5638 lower high sits just above the 38.2% fib of the week's drop. Price is drifting back toward the 0.5617 asia low, flat EMA(20) near 0.5625 is capping, and RSI(14) has gone neutral around 52.
Support: 0.5617, 0.5600, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5625, 0.5637, 0.5670
What it said to watch
US core PCE and GDP at 12:30 UTC (~8.5h) could materially shift this read
An H1 close below the 0.5617 asia low breaks the higher lows trendline and puts the 0.5600 round number in focus
Failure to hold 0.5600 exposes the 0.5583 rbnz low
Sustained trade above ema20 and the 0.5637 lower high reopens the 0.5670 range floor
Post-impulse flag of higher lows under a 0.5637 cap.
The week opened at 0.5695 and ranged 0.5670–0.5708 through Monday and Tuesday. The RBNZ's surprise 4-3 hold then drove a 90-pip Asia-session flush from the pre-RBNZ 0.5675 area to 0.5583 on Wednesday. Since the Wed base at 0.5595, price has printed rising lows into the Asian low at 0.5618, but the post-Fed high at 0.5637 has capped two attempts (the Fed reaction and this Asia session) just above the 50% retracement of the RBNZ drop, with price now a touch below EMA(20) and RSI(14) flat near 47.
Support: 0.5618, 0.5595, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5637, 0.5675, 0.5695
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5637 post-Fed high clears the 50% retracement and opens the pre-RBNZ 0.5675 area, with the weekly open at 0.5695 beyond
Break of the rising lows and the 0.5618 Asian low exposes the 0.5595 Wed base and the 0.5583 RBNZ low
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence at 21:00 UTC is a secondary NZD risk
Post-RBNZ flush, higher lows forming a 0.5618–0.5638 flag.
The week opened at 0.5695 and held a 0.5670–0.5708 range through Monday and Tuesday, before the RBNZ's surprise 4-3 hold in Wednesday's Asia session drove a 92-pip hourly selloff from the 0.5675 pre-RBNZ level to the 0.5583 RBNZ low. Higher lows at 0.5595, the 0.5609 FOMC low and 0.5618 have since lifted price into a tight flag, with the 0.5638 FOMC high capping two NY- and Asia-session probes near the 38.2% retracement of the selloff. Price is pinned to a flattening EMA(20) near 0.5626 with RSI(14) around 46, still below the EMA(50) at 0.5644.
Support: 0.5618, 0.5609, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5638, 0.5644, 0.5675
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5618 higher low and the rising trendline breaks the flag; losing the 0.5609 FOMC low exposes the 0.5583 RBNZ low
Sustained trade above the 0.5638 FOMC high and the 0.5644 EMA(50) opens the path back toward the 0.5675 pre-RBNZ breakdown level
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC (~10h) could materially shift this read
Range break lower, higher lows since Wednesday's low.
NZDUSD held a 0.5670–0.5708 range from Monday's open until Wednesday's surprise RBNZ hold knocked it over 90 pips lower in the Asia session, breaking the range floor and printing the 0.5583 rbnz low. Since then a run of higher lows (the 0.5595 wed low, then 0.5609 and 0.5618) has carried a recovery that peaked at the 0.5638 fed high, set during NY hours as USD softened after the Fed hold, just above the 38.2% fib of the drop. Price is now hugging EMA(20), with RSI(14) in the mid-50s and price still well below EMA(50).
Support: 0.56182, 0.55952, 0.55827
Resistance: 0.56304, 0.56383, 0.56696
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5638 fed high opens the 50% retracement near 0.5645 and the 0.5670 range floor
Break of the 0.5618 higher low and the higher-low trendline exposes the 0.5595 wed low and the 0.5583 rbnz low
Repeated rejection at the 38.2% fib near 0.5630 keeps the recovery corrective
US core PCE and GDP Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:05 UTC
Downtrend after range break, corrective rebound stalling · RSI 47 · price 0.56262
Mon–Tue range 0.5670–0.5708 broken lower; post-RBNZ rising flag from 0.5583.
Monday and Tuesday held a 0.5670–0.5708 range, with Tuesday's 0.5708 week high failing near the 0.5700 handle. The RBNZ's surprise hold drove a ~92-pip H1 bar in Wednesday's Asia session to the 0.5583 rbnz low and broke the range. Since then price has built higher lows at 0.5595 in London and 0.5609 in NY, the Fed low, in a rising flag. The Fed-hold spike to the 0.5638 fed high stalled just under the fib 50% retracement of the week's drop. Price sits flat at EMA(20) near 0.5626, with RSI(14) back to 47.
Support: 0.5609, 0.5595, 0.5583
Resistance: 0.5638, 0.5645, 0.5675
What it said to watch
H1 close below flag support and the 0.5609 fed low would end the post-RBNZ higher-low sequence
Failure to hold the 0.5595 higher low re-exposes the 0.5583 rbnz low
Close above the 0.5638 fed high and fib 50% at 0.5645 opens the 0.5675 pre-rbnz breakdown area
US core PCE and Q3 GDP at 12:30 UTC Thursday could materially shift this read