NZD/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Thursday, 8 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the NZD/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:32 UTC
Sideways after NY rebound, momentum neutral · RSI 49 · price 0.56031
Tight range 0.5596–0.5608 below the 0.5613 NY high, higher low intact.
NY rallied off the 0.5582 london low as oil eased on Trump's Iran de-escalation and swept the Asian high, reaching the 0.5613 ny high before a rejection. The ny pullback held at 0.5590, roughly 73% of the move on the fib, and since then price has compressed between the 0.5596 rollover low and the 0.5608 range top into a thin early Asia session, with RSI(14) flat near 49.
Support: 0.55958, 0.55899, 0.55815
Resistance: 0.56079, 0.56133
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5608 range top reopens the 0.5613 ny high
Break of the 0.5596 rollover low and the higher-low line exposes the 0.5590 ny pullback, then the 0.5582 london low
Thin Asia liquidity keeps ATR near 3 pips, so range breaks may lack follow-through
US UoM sentiment and inflation expectations (Fri 14:00 UTC) could shift the read later in the day
23:17 UTC
Sideways, momentum neutral after NY spike reversal · RSI 49 · price 0.56029
Tight 0.5596–0.5606 range in early Asia, nested inside the 0.5590–0.5613 NY span.
London sold the pair to a 0.5582 london low just above the 0.5580 18-month low as oil-driven US yields weighed. NY then ran to a 0.5613 spike high and reversed to the 0.5590 ny low. Early Asia is holding 0.5603, roughly a 33% fib retrace of the london low–spike high leg, with the rollover gap to 0.5596 already filled and ATR compressed near 3.6 pips.
Support: 0.55958, 0.55899, 0.55815
Resistance: 0.56062, 0.56079, 0.56133
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5608 ny high breaks the overnight range and puts the 0.5613 spike high back in view
Failure below the 0.5596 rollover low reopens the 0.5590 ny low; below that, the 0.5582 london low sits just above the 0.5580 18-month low
Asia high at 0.5606 is the first cap; a rejection there keeps the range intact
Unscheduled oil, US yield or Middle East headlines remain the main intraday driver; US UoM sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC Fri are the next scheduled risk
Tight range 0.5596–0.5606 inside wider 0.5582–0.5613 day range.
NY's spike to the 0.5613 ny high was fully rejected as USD swung on Iran/oil headlines, and the pair then held above the 0.5590 ny low. Early Asia is compressing between the 0.5596 rollover low and the 0.5606 late high. Price sits near the 50–61.8% zone of the ny swing fib, with RSI flat near 49 and ATR around 3.5 pips.
Support: 0.55958, 0.55899, 0.55815
Resistance: 0.56062, 0.56133
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5606 late high opens a retest of the 0.5613 ny high
Loss of the 0.5596 rollover low exposes the 0.5590 ny low, then the 0.5582 day low
US UoM sentiment and inflation expectations (Fri 14:00 UTC) could materially shift the read beyond the Asian range
22:32 UTC
Sideways-to-firm, higher lows since London low · RSI 56 · price 0.56053
Higher lows (0.55815, 0.55899, 0.55958) beneath a 0.5608–0.5613 cap.
Early Asia session. Price has reclaimed the 0.5600 psych after a thin dip to the 0.55958 rollover low, extending a chain of rising lows from the 0.55815 London low. The NY spike to the 0.56133 day high faded as USD softened on Iran de-escalation headlines and lower oil, and the 0.56079 NY high now caps the session range.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55958, 0.55815
Resistance: 0.56079, 0.56133
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56079 ny high exposes the 0.56133 day high
Loss of 0.5600 psych and the 0.55958 rollover low breaks the rising lows
Thin Asian liquidity and no scheduled data in the next 8h; US UoM sentiment and inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC
22:17 UTC
Neutral, recovering off London low · RSI 55 · price 0.56043
Lower highs vs higher lows, compressing near 0.5600.
Kiwi rebounded from the 0.55815 London low as USD faded on Trump's Iran de-escalation comments. The spike to the 0.56133 day high was rejected, and price has since printed a lower high at 0.56079 against a higher NY swing low at 0.55899. Early Asia is holding 0.5600 after the rollover low at 0.55958, with the range compressing at 3–4 pips ATR.
Support: 0.55958, 0.55899, 0.55815
Resistance: 0.56079, 0.56133
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56079 lower high breaks the compression and exposes the 0.56133 day high
Loss of the 0.55958 rollover low and the 0.55899 ny swing low breaks the higher-lows line toward the 0.55815 london low
Thin early-Asia liquidity; Friday's UoM sentiment and inflation expectations (14:00 UTC) could reset the range
22:04 UTC
Sideways after failed NY rally, slipping back under 0.5600 · RSI 42 · price 0.55982
Back inside the Asian range; NY lower high, late-NY range 0.5599–0.5605 broken at rollover.
London took out the Asian low and printed the 0.55815 day low. The NY rally on the USD pullback (Iran de-escalation, softer oil) cleared the Asian high to a 0.56133 NY high, then reversed: a false break, followed by a 0.56079 lower high and a late-NY range capped at the 0.56051 range top. The rollover gap has pushed price back under the 0.5600 psych level, near the 50% retrace of the London low–NY high fib, with a 0.55958 rollover low just below and RSI(14) at 42 in thin early-Asia trade.
Support: 0.55958, 0.55899, 0.55815
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56051, 0.56133
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.55958 rollover low exposes the 0.55899 NY low, the 61.8% fib area just above it
Loss of the 0.55815 day low brings the 0.5580 18-month low into play
Recovery above 0.5600 psych and the 0.56051 range top re-opens the lower high at 0.56079 and the NY high
Rollover spreads are distorting early-Asia wicks until liquidity returns
US UoM sentiment and inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
21:33 UTC
Compressing after a two-way NY session · RSI 42 · price 0.55996
Lower high vs higher low, tight post-NY range.
NY lifted the pair from the 0.5582 london low to a 0.5613 day high as USD softened on Trump's Iran de-escalation and lower oil, but the high was rejected. A 0.5590 higher low and a 0.5608 lower high have since squeezed price into a 0.5599–0.5605 post-NY range. Price now sits on the range floor after rollover, under EMA20 and on a flat EMA50, with RSI near 42 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 0.55986, 0.55899, 0.55815
Resistance: 0.56051, 0.56079, 0.56133
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5599 range floor exposes the 0.5590 higher low
Failure to hold the 0.5590 higher low puts the 0.5582 london low back in play
Close above the 0.5605 range top shifts focus to the 0.5608 lower high and the 0.5613 day high
Thin early Asia session liquidity after rollover can produce false breaks of the range
Lower high under the session high, tight post-NY compression.
NY swept the Asian range high near 0.5609 to a 0.5613 session high and was rejected to a 0.5590 NY low, with the USD off its highs as Trump's Iran de-escalation pulled oil lower. The NY rebound stalled at a 0.5608 lower high, and price has compressed between the 0.5599 pullback low and the 0.5605 range top since NY close, with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 0.55986, 0.55899, 0.55815
Resistance: 0.56051, 0.56079, 0.56133
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5605 range top and the 0.5608 lower high breaks the compression
Failure to hold the 0.5599 pullback low exposes the 0.5590 NY low, then the 0.5582 london low
Reclaiming the 0.5613 session high negates the rejection read and the lower highs sequence
Thin Asia session liquidity ahead; Friday's UoM sentiment and inflation expectations could materially shift this read
21:06 UTC
Neutral, consolidating after NY recovery · RSI 45 · price 0.56023
Tight late-NY range 0.5599–0.5605 inside the 0.5582–0.5613 day range, higher lows since 16:00 UTC.
NZD recovered from the 0.5582 London low during NY as USD eased on Trump's Iran de-escalation and softer crude. The 14:30 UTC spike to the 0.5613 session high was a false break of the Asian high and drew a rejection. Since 18:15 UTC price has held a 5-pip range between 0.5599 and 0.5605, about a 35% retrace of the London low-to-NY high leg, with a higher-lows line from the 0.5590 swing low still intact.
Support: 0.55986, 0.55899, 0.55815
Resistance: 0.56051, 0.56079, 0.56133
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.5599 range low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 0.5590 swing low, then the london low at 0.5582
Close above the 0.5605 range top brings the 0.5608 swing high and the 0.5613 session high back into view
Delayed reports on the content of Breman's speech, or Middle East and oil headlines, could break the range during the Asia session
20:32 UTC
Neutral, compressing after NY rebound · RSI 56 · price 0.56022
Lower highs and higher lows since 0.56133 day high, tight late-NY range.
NZD/USD rebounded from the 0.55815 London low to a 0.56133 day high in early NY as the USD eased on Iran de-escalation headlines. It then printed a lower high at 0.56079 and a higher low at 0.55899. Late NY is compressing into a pennant between the 0.55986 range low and the 0.56051 range top, with RSI(14) near 56 and ATR(14) about 3 pips.
Support: 0.55986, 0.55899, 0.55815
Resistance: 0.56051, 0.56079, 0.56133
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56051 range top and 0.56079 lower high breaks the compression and puts the 0.56133 day high back in play
Failure to hold the 0.55986 range low exposes the 0.55899 higher low, near the 61.8% fib of the NY rebound
A break below 0.55899 reopens the 0.55815 London low
Thin late-NY and early Asia session trade can produce false breaks of the pennant
Any delayed reporting of today's Breman speech content could reprice NZD
20:17 UTC
Intraday range after NY reversal, momentum flat · RSI 58 · price 0.56036
Higher low at 0.5599 under a lower high at 0.5608; NY high false break.
London sold off to the 0.5582 london low on higher US yields. NY then reversed sharply, pushing above the Asian high at 0.5609 to a 0.5613 ny high before rejecting back to the 0.5590 pullback low. The bounce stalled at a 0.5608 lower high, and price is now consolidating near 0.5603 in thin late-NY trade, with ATR compressing to about 3 pips.
Support: 0.55986, 0.55899, 0.55815
Resistance: 0.56079, 0.56133
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5608 lower high reopens the 0.5613 ny high
Loss of the 0.5599 higher low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 0.5590 pullback low
A move back below 0.5590 puts the 0.5582 london low in play
Asia open on Breman speech headlines or US yield and oil moves could break the compression
UMich sentiment and inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC are the next scheduled USD risk
20:03 UTC
Intraday range, compressing after NY spike · RSI 57 · price 0.56038
Lower high at 0.5608 against higher lows at 0.5590/0.5599 into the NY close.
London sold down to the 0.5582 london low before NY reversed it. A USD pullback on Iran de-escalation headlines drove a sweep of the Asian high into the 0.5613 session high, which was rejected straight back to the 0.5590 ny low. Price is now squeezed between a lower high at 0.5608 and a swing low at 0.5599 late in NY, with RSI(14) mid-50s and ATR around 3.6 pips.
Support: 0.55986, 0.55899, 0.55815
Resistance: 0.56079, 0.56133
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5599 swing low breaks the higher-low line and reopens the 0.5590 ny low
Close above the 0.5608 lower high reopens the 0.5613 session high
Thin Asia session ahead; any delayed reporting of Breman's speech content could jolt NZD
19:47 UTC
Two-way, contracting after NY reversal · RSI 57 · price 0.56027
Lower high 0.56079 / higher low 0.55986 converging inside the 0.55815–0.56133 day range.
London broke below the Asian range to a 0.55815 day low near the 0.5580 area. NY reversed as USD faded on easing oil after Trump ruled out an Iran strike, but the run through the 0.56093 Asian high to the 0.56133 day high was rejected. Since then the pair has printed a 0.56079 lower high and a 0.55986 higher low, with late-NY ranges compressing to ~3–4 pips per bar.
Support: 0.55986, 0.55899, 0.55815
Resistance: 0.56079, 0.56093, 0.56133
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56079 lower high breaks the contraction, with the 0.56093 Asian high and 0.56133 day high next
Loss of the 0.55986 higher low re-exposes the 0.55899 NY low, then the 0.55815 day low
Iran/oil headlines in thin Asia session trade could break the compression; UoM sentiment Fri 14:00 UTC is the next scheduled USD risk
19:32 UTC
Intraday range, compressing after NY spike · RSI 57 · price 0.56025
Lower high 0.5608 under 0.5613 session high; higher lows at 0.5590 and 0.5599.
The London session low at 0.5582 held into US claims. The USD fade on Trump's Iran comments then lifted the pair in a sweep of the Asian high to a 0.5613 session high, which was rejected back to a 0.5590 higher low. Late in NY hours price is coiling between a 0.5608 lower high and a 0.5599 swing low, holding the 50–61.8% zone of the rally.
Support: 0.55986, 0.55899, 0.55815
Resistance: 0.56079, 0.56133
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5608 lower high reopens the 0.5613 session high
Break of the 0.5599 swing low exposes the 0.5590 higher low and the rising trendline
Loss of the 0.5582 session low returns price to London-session lows and negates the rebound
Oil and Iran headlines into Asia remain the main USD driver; NZ calendar is thin
19:17 UTC
Intraday rebound from day low, momentum stalling · RSI 57 · price 0.56018
Lower high at 0.56079 after day-high rejection, compressing late NY.
London extended to a 0.55815 day low before Trump's no-strike comments pulled oil and USD lower. NY then ran to a 0.56133 day high, a false break of the 0.56093 asian high that was quickly rejected. Late NY is now compressing between the 0.55986 swing low and a 0.56079 swing high, above a 0.55899 ny low higher low, with RSI(14) neutral near 57 and price sitting on the 38.2% of the day low-high move.
Support: 0.55986, 0.55899, 0.55815
Resistance: 0.56079, 0.56093, 0.56133
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56079 swing high and 0.56093 asian high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 0.56133 day high
Failure to hold the 0.55986 swing low exposes the 0.55899 ny low near the 61.8% retracement
Loss of 0.55899 puts the 0.55815 day low back in play
Oil and Iran headlines into the Asia session could materially shift this read; UoM sentiment Fri 14:00 UTC is the next scheduled USD test
19:03 UTC
Two-way intraday, compressing after NY reversal · RSI 56 · price 0.56028
Higher lows from 0.5582 against lower highs from 0.5613, late NY.
London broke below the Asian range low (0.5593) to a day low at 0.5582 as higher US yields and oil-led risk-off weighed on NZD. NY reversed hard, made a false break above the Asian high to a day high at 0.5613, then saw rejection back to the NY low at 0.5590. After London close, price is compressing at 0.5603, between higher lows (swing low 0.5599) and a lower high at 0.5608, just above EMA20, with RSI(14) in the mid-50s.
Support: 0.55986, 0.55899, 0.55815
Resistance: 0.56079, 0.56133
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5608 lower high breaks the compression and puts the 0.5613 day high back in play
Failure to hold the 0.5599 swing low exposes the 0.5590 NY low and the higher-lows line
Loss of 0.5590 shifts focus back to the 0.5582 day low
Thin Asia session open next; Fri 14:00 UTC UoM sentiment and inflation expectations are the next major USD risk
Higher low at 0.5590 under a lower high at 0.5608, compressing late NY.
NY swept the Asian range high near 0.5609 into a 0.5613 session high and was rejected. That run came as USD eased on Iran de-escalation headlines. The bounce off the 0.5582 London low has since printed a higher low at 0.5590 and a lower high at 0.5608. Price is pinned near 0.5601, around the 38.2% retrace, late in NY hours.
Support: 0.55986, 0.55899, 0.55815
Resistance: 0.56079, 0.56133
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5608 lower high reopens the 0.5613 session high
Break of the 0.5599 pullback low exposes the 0.5590 higher low and the higher-low line
Loss of the 0.5582 London low would print a lower-low and void the intraday recovery read
Thin liquidity after NY close into the Asia session; oil and US yield headlines remain the swing factor
18:32 UTC
Sideways after NY spike, fading from lower high · RSI 47 · price 0.55991
Contracting range: NY high 0.5613, lower high 0.5608, higher low 0.5590.
London ground lower after Breman's 08:00 GMT speech with no reported content, reaching a london low of 0.55815. NY then spiked to 0.56133, the ny high and day high, and was rejected. Since then a 0.5608 lower high and a 0.5590 ny low have formed, and price is back near the 50% fib of the London-NY rally around 0.5597, tucked just under EMA20.
Support: 0.5590, 0.55815
Resistance: 0.5608, 0.56133
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5590 ny low breaks the higher-low sequence and puts the 0.55815 london low back in play, just above the 0.5580 Nov-2025 low
Close above the 0.5608 lower high and the falling resistance line reopens the 0.56133 ny high
Thin hours into the Asia session open, with US yields and oil headlines the main driver and no scheduled data in the next 8h
18:17 UTC
Intraday range after failed NY rally · RSI 50 · price 0.5602
Lower high 0.5608 vs higher low 0.5590, coiling near 0.5600.
The NY session rally off the 0.5582 London low broke above the Asian range top to a 0.5613 session high and was rejected. Price is now back inside that range near the 0.5600 round number, between a 0.5590 higher low and a 0.5608 lower high. RSI(14) is neutral near 50 with ATR around 4.5 pips, and swings are tracking US yields after the 5.62% 30Y auction.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5590, 0.55815
Resistance: 0.56079, 0.56133
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5600 round number exposes the 0.5590 higher low
Failure to hold 0.5590 voids the higher-low read and reopens the 0.5582 london low
Close above the 0.5608 lower high reopens the 0.5613 session high
US yield or Iran/oil headlines into the Asia session could shift this read
18:03 UTC
Intraday range, compressing after London low · RSI 51 · price 0.56038
Higher low at 0.5590 under a lower high at 0.5608; contracting range late NY.
London set the day low at 0.55815, then the 12:30 UTC spike to the 0.56133 session high was rejected straight back to 0.5590. Late NY, a higher low at 0.5590 and a lower high at 0.5608 have price coiling just above the 0.5600 psych level, with RSI flat near 51 and the US-yield-driven USD bid still the backdrop.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5590, 0.55815
Resistance: 0.5608, 0.56133, 0.5622
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5608 lower high reopens the 0.56133 session high and Wednesday's 0.5622 prior high
Loss of 0.5600 psych then the 0.5590 higher low exposes the 0.55815 day low
Fri 14:00 UTC Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations, plus US 10y near 5.31%, could break the compression
17:48 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher low in place · RSI 64 · price 0.5606
London low 0.5582, NY false break above Asian high, higher low at 0.5590, now pressing 0.5608.
London ground down to a 0.5582 London low before NY reversed it. A false break of the 0.5609 Asian high to the 0.5613 NY high was rejected, but the pullback held a 0.5590 higher low. Price is back above the 0.5600 psych after Trump's Iran de-escalation headline eased oil- and haven-driven USD demand, with RSI(14) near 64 and ATR(14) around 4.6 pips into late NY.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5590, 0.5582
Resistance: 0.5609, 0.5613, 0.5622
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5613 NY high negates the false break and exposes the 0.5622 Wed high
Rejection again at the 0.5609 Asian high keeps the 0.5590–0.5613 NY range intact
Loss of the 0.5600 psych and then the 0.5590 higher low breaks the rising higher-low line and refocuses on the 0.5582 London low
Fed's Musalem (17:40 UTC, underway) could shift US yields and this read
Reversal of the Iran de-escalation headline or a fresh oil/yield spike would undercut the recovery
17:32 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows off the day low · RSI 60 · price 0.56063
London low 0.5582, NY higher low 0.5590, now testing Asian high.
London sold the Asian range down to a 0.5582 day low near the Nov-2025 low. NY then spiked to a 0.5613 session high that was rejected, held a higher low at the 0.5590 ny low, and the late bid on Trump's Iran de-escalation headline has retraced ~70% of that pullback back to the 0.5609 asian high. RSI(14) ~60, ATR ~5 pips.
Support: 0.56032, 0.55899, 0.55815
Resistance: 0.56093, 0.56133
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5609 asian high exposes the 0.5613 session high; another rejection there keeps the spike top intact
Loss of the 0.5603 prior cap and the rising support line from the day low would undercut the higher-low read
Break of the 0.5590 ny low reopens the 0.5582 day low and the 0.5580 Nov-2025 low
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could shift US yields and this read
17:17 UTC
Two-way intraday, rebounding off a higher low · RSI 57 · price 0.56034
Higher low at 0.5590 after NY false break above Asian high; mid-range.
London broke the Asian low to a 0.5582 session low. NY reversed the move to 0.5613, above the 0.5609 Asian high, but was rejected straight back inside, a false break. The pullback held a higher low at the 0.5590 swing low, about 73% of the NY rally fib, and late NY has price back above 0.5600 psych as Trump's Iran de-escalation remarks eased oil-and-yield pressure.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5590, 0.55815
Resistance: 0.56093, 0.56133
What it said to watch
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
M15 close back below 0.5600 psych and the 0.5590 swing low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 0.5582 session low
M15 close above the 0.5609 Asian high and 0.5613 session high would negate the false break read
17:04 UTC
Intraday range after rejected NY spike · RSI 51 · price 0.55978
Higher low at 0.5590 off the 0.5582 day low; price capped below the 0.5603 spike high.
The early-NY rally off the 0.5582 day low ran to an NY high of 0.5613 and briefly cleared the 0.5609 Asian high. The move was rejected and retraced about 70% of the leg (fib) to the 0.5590 NY low, with firm US yields and oil keeping the Kiwi heavy. Late in the NY session, price is boxed between 0.5590 and the 0.5603 spike high, with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 0.5590, 0.55815
Resistance: 0.56032, 0.56093, 0.56133
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5590 NY low breaks the higher low line and exposes the 0.5582 day low and the 0.5580 Nov-2025 low
M15 close above the 0.5603 spike high reopens the 0.5609 Asian high and the 0.5613 NY high
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could shift this read via US yields
16:47 UTC
Intraday range after failed NY squeeze, lower highs · RSI 55 · price 0.55972
False break above Asian high, rotating mid-range between 0.5590 and 0.5603.
London sold through the Asian range to a 0.5582 session low near the Nov-2025 floor as oil-driven US yields stayed bid. NY's squeeze above the 0.5609 Asian high to a 0.5613 day high failed and unwound to a 0.5590 NY low. Late NY, after London close, price sits at the 50% fib of that move near 0.5597 under a lower high at 0.5603, with RSI(14) neutral at 55.
Support: 0.5590, 0.55815
Resistance: 0.56032, 0.56093, 0.56133
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5590 ny low exposes the 0.5582 session low and the 0.5580 Nov-2025 floor
Recovery above the 0.5603 lower high and back over the 0.5609 asian high negates the false-break read
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
16:33 UTC
Choppy, two-way after NY reversal · RSI 51 · price 0.55957
Lower highs since NY high, mid-range near 0.5596.
London extended lower lows to the 0.5582 London low before NY reversed hard, poking through the 0.5609 Asian high to a 0.5613 NY high that failed and unwound to the 0.5590 NY low as US yields held firm. Price now sits about 55% into the NY rally fib, pinned on flat EMA20/50 near 0.5596. The 0.5603 spike high capped the latest bounce, extending the lower-highs line.
Support: 0.5590, 0.55815
Resistance: 0.56032, 0.56093, 0.56133
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5603 spike high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 0.5609 Asian high back in play
Failure to hold the 0.5590 NY low reopens the 0.5582 London low
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
False break above Asian high, lower highs since 14:30 UTC.
London pressed to the 0.5582 day low after Breman's 08:00 UTC remarks failed to hold a bounce, with firm US yields keeping NZD heavy. The NY spike to the 0.5613 day high cleared the Asian high at 0.5609 and was rejected. That move has since been retraced to the 0.5590 NY low, and price now sits on the 61.8% fib of the rally.
Support: 0.5590, 0.55815
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56093, 0.56133
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5600 round number reopens the asian high at 0.5609
Break of the 0.5590 ny low exposes the 78.6% fib near 0.5588 and the 0.5582 day low
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read
Breman's 08:00 UTC speech drew no lasting reaction, and London slid to a 0.5582 day low near the 0.5580 Nov-2025 low. A first-hour-of-NY rally pushed through the 0.5609 Asian high to a 0.5613 NY high, was rejected, and has since fully unwound to the 61.8% retrace of the ny rally, sitting on the 0.5593 Asian low. Price is back under EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 47, as oil-driven US yields near 2002 highs keep NZD heavy.
Support: 0.55927, 0.55874, 0.55815
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56093, 0.56133
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5593 Asian low exposes the 0.5587 swing low and the 0.5582 day low
A break of the 0.5582 day low puts the 0.5580 Nov-2025 low in play
Recovery above the 0.5600 round number reopens the 0.5609 Asian high and 0.5613 NY high
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift USD and this read
False break above Asian high, pullback into fib zone.
The early-NY spike to the 0.5613 NY high briefly cleared the 0.5609 Asian high, then failed. Price has since given back about 18 pips to 0.5596, sitting on EMA20 between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the London low–NY high leg. The 0.5582 day low from London still sits just above the 0.5580 Nov-2025 low, with USD held up by yields near 2002 highs.
Support: 0.5594, 0.5590, 0.55815
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56093, 0.56133
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.5600 psych reopens the 0.5609 Asian high
Break below the 61.8% fib at 0.5594 and the 0.5590 london shelf exposes the 0.5582 day low
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read
15:33 UTC
Intraday range, two-way after NY spike · RSI 54 · price 0.55963
False break above Asian high, retracing toward mid-leg.
London slid from the asian low at 0.5593 to the london low at 0.5582 on yield and oil-driven USD demand, with little reaction to Breman. NY reversed off a 0.5587 ny pivot and ran the asian high at 0.5609 to a 0.5613 session high, but was rejected within the hour. Price is back at 0.5596 on the 50% fib of that leg, just under the 0.5600 psych mark, with EMA20 flat beneath and RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 0.55927, 0.55874, 0.55815
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56093, 0.56133
What it said to watch
M15 close below the asian low at 0.5593 (61.8% fib) puts the ny pivot at 0.5587 and the london low at 0.5582 back in play
Reclaiming 0.5600 psych and closing above the asian high at 0.5609 negates the false break; 0.5613 session high caps above that
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC and US 10y yields near 5.3% could materially shift this read
False break above Asian high, back inside Asian range.
London broke below the Asian range and reached the 0.5582 London low, just above the 0.5580 Nov-2025 low, with firm US yields keeping USD supported. NY reversed the move and briefly cleared the 0.5609 Asian high, reaching a 0.5613 session high before rejection. Price is back at the 0.5600 psych level, inside the Asian range, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the NY rally.
Support: 0.55943, 0.55815
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56093, 0.56133
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5609 Asian high negates the false break, with the 0.5613 session high above
Failure to hold the 0.5594 Asian low, where the NY rally trendline converges, reopens the 0.5582 London low
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
15:04 UTC
NY rebound off the session low, now stalling · RSI 57 · price 0.56021
V-recovery from 0.5582, false break of Asian high.
London sold NZD down to a 0.55815 session low, just above the 0.5580 Nov-2025 low, as yields and oil pressured the pair. NY reversed it in a V. The 14:15 UTC spike cleared the 0.56093 Asian high to 0.56133 but was rejected straight back to the 0.5600 psych area. Price is now sitting on the 38.2% fib and the rising trendline from the session low, RSI(14) cooled to ~57.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5595, 0.55815
Resistance: 0.56093, 0.56133
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.56093 asian high negates the false-break read
Loss of 0.5600 psych and the rising trendline puts the 0.5595 spike base and 50–61.8% fib (0.5597–0.5594) in play
A move back toward the 0.55815 session low would retest the London low near 0.5580
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could shift USD and yields and change this read
14:47 UTC
Intraday recovery off session low, stalling at Asian high · RSI 65 · price 0.56061
HH/HL chain from 0.5582 low; false break above the Asian high.
London extended the post-Breman slide to a 0.5582 session low, near the 0.5580 Nov-2025 low. NY then built a higher-low rally whose spike through the 0.5609 Asian high to 0.5613 was rejected within the bar. Price is holding just above the 0.5600 round number and the 38.2% fib of the rally, with RSI(14) near 65 and ATR(14) around 5 pips.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5595, 0.55815
Resistance: 0.56093, 0.56133, 0.5622
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5613 spike high negates the false break and opens the path to the 0.5622 prior high
Break of the 0.5595 higher low and the rally trendline returns focus to the 0.5582 session low
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could shift USD and this read
Higher-low chain off the London low, Asian high just cleared.
The London slide on USD and yield strength stalled at the 0.5582 session low. The NY session reversed it despite firm US claims, with an 11-pip 14:15 UTC bar clearing the 0.5609 Asian high to a 0.5610 day high. RSI(14) is near 76 after a run of higher lows along the rising trendline. The 0.5600 psych level and the 0.5595 swing low sit beneath, with the 61.8% fib of the recovery near 0.5592.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5595, 0.55815
Resistance: 0.56099, 0.5622
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5609 Asian high would mark the breakout as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5595 swing low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 0.5610 day high opens the path toward the 0.5622 wed high
Fed's Kashkari at 14:40 UTC and Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read
Loss of 0.5600 psych exposes the 0.5582 session low
14:17 UTC
Intraday recovery after London selloff · price 0.55994
London sold off from the 0.5609 Asian high to a 0.5582 session low. A brief Breman-speech pop to 0.5600 faded as the USD bid on near-2002-high yields held. In NY, a higher-low chain off 0.5582 has lifted price back to the 61.8% fib near 0.5599, just under the Breman high, with the 38.2% fib at 0.5592 and the 0.5587 higher low below.
Support: 0.55921, 0.55874, 0.55815
Resistance: 0.56004, 0.56056, 0.56093
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5600 Breman high reopens the 0.5604–0.5606 asian shelf and the 0.5609 asian high
Loss of the rising lows line and the 0.5587 higher low returns focus to the 0.5582 session low and the 0.5580 Nov-2025 low
Rejection at 0.5600 with a close back under the 0.5592 38.2% fib keeps the London downtrend intact
Fed's Kashkari at 14:40 UTC (Musalem 17:40 UTC) could shift the NY read
Asian range broken lower in London; HH/HL rebound since 0.5582, now retesting the Asian low.
London broke the 0.5593–0.5609 Asian range lower and extended to a 0.5582 London low near the 0.5580 Nov-2025 low. Breman's 08:00 UTC remarks gave no lasting lift, while firm US yields kept the USD bid. Since 11:30 UTC price has built higher lows along a rising trendline and is now retesting the Asian low near the 50% fib at 0.5595 in the first hours of NY.
Support: 0.5593, 0.5587, 0.5582
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.5609
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5593 Asian low marks the retest as a rejection
Close above the 0.5600 round number opens the 0.5609 Asian high
Break of the 0.5587 higher low and rising trendline reasserts the down-leg toward the 0.5582 London low
Fed's Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could shift USD and yields within the session
Lower highs from 0.5609 Asian high; higher lows off 0.5582 session low since 11:30 UTC.
London broke the Asian range low and extended the slide from the 0.5609 Asian high to a 0.5582 session low. The post-Breman pop to the 0.5600 breman high met rejection, with USD firm on high yields. Early NY has printed a higher low at 0.5587 on rising support, and price is stalling at the 50% fib near 0.5596 with RSI(14) neutral around 52.
Support: 0.55874, 0.55815, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55956, 0.56004, 0.56093
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5600 breman high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 0.5609 asian high
Loss of the 0.5587 higher low and rising support puts the 0.5582 session low and the 0.5580 nov-25 low back in play
Repeated failure at the 50% fib near 0.5596 keeps the NY bounce corrective
Fed's Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could shift this read via US yields
13:17 UTC
Downtrend, early NY bounce · RSI 55 · price 0.55937
London lower highs into 0.55815 low; NY printing higher lows.
Breman's 08:00 UTC speech lifted NZD to a 0.56004 Breman high that faded fast. London slid through the Asian range low to a 0.55815 session low, just above the 0.5580 Nov-2025 low, as US yields and risk-off kept USD bid. Early NY has a higher low at 0.55874 and price is retesting the 61.8% fib of the London slide near 0.5593, just under the 0.55956 NY high.
Support: 0.55874, 0.55815
Resistance: 0.55956, 0.56004
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.55956 NY high opens a test of the 0.56004 Breman high and the London breakdown area
Break of the 0.55874 higher low ends the NY bounce structure; loss of the 0.55815 session low puts the 0.5580 Nov-2025 low in play
Fed's Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
13:04 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 45 · price 0.55886
LH/LL chain from Asia high; NY bounce capped at 61.8%.
Breman's 08:00 UTC speech produced a brief spike to 0.5600, the breman high, which faded. London then extended the slide from the 0.5609 Asia high to a 0.55815 session low, just above the 0.5580 Nov-25 low, as US yields kept the dollar firm. The claims-hour bounce stalled at 0.5593, the 61.8% retrace of that drop, leaving another lower high, and price is hugging EMA20 in early NY.
Support: 0.55815, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55931, 0.56004, 0.56093
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5593 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and challenges the 0.5600 breman high
Failure to hold the 0.55815 session low exposes the 0.5580 Nov-25 low
Fed's Kashkari at 14:40 UTC and any US yield move could shift this read
Reclaim of the 0.5609 Asia high would undo the session downtrend
12:47 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 42 · price 0.55877
LH/LL sequence from the 0.5609 Asian high; bounce off session low capped at 0.5593.
The pair has printed lower highs since the 0.5609 Asian high. The Breman-window pop to 0.5600 (breman high) was sold and London extended to a 0.55815 session low just above the 0.5580 Nov-25 low, with US yields keeping the USD bid. The NY-open bounce stalled at 0.5593, a fresh lower high at the 61.8% retrace, around the 12:30 UTC jobless claims release.
Support: 0.55815, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5593, 0.56004, 0.56093
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5593 lower high breaks the LH chain; the 0.5600 breman high is next overhead
Failure to hold the 0.55815 session low puts the 0.5580 Nov-25 low in play
Price back above the descending trendline from the 0.5609 Asian high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Jobless claims actual (12:30 UTC) and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read during NY hours
12:32 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 46 · price 0.55899
Lower-high chain from 0.5609; NY bounce retesting broken Asian low.
London broke below the asian low at 0.5594. Breman's 08:00 UTC remarks gave only a brief pop to the 0.5600 breman high before a lower-high grind to a 0.5582 session low, as 2002-high US yields kept USD bid. The NY-open bounce stalled at 0.5593, a retest of the asian low near the 38.2% fib. RSI(14) sits mid-40s and ATR is about 3.8 pips.
Support: 0.55815, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55943, 0.56004, 0.56093
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asian low at 0.5594 and the descending trendline opens the 0.5600 breman high
Only a reclaim of the 0.5609 asian high ends the lower-high sequence
Break of the 0.5582 session low exposes the 0.5580 18m low
US jobless claims (12:30 UTC, f/c 200K) and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read
12:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 42 · price 0.5588
Lower-high chain from 0.5609; London broke Asian low, now retesting it from below.
Lower highs from the 0.5609 asian high held through the session. The Breman spike to the 0.5600 breman high faded as US yields stayed firm, and London broke the 0.5590 asian low to print a 0.55815 london low just above the 0.5580 nov-25 low. Price is now back at 0.5590 into the NY open, retesting the broken asian low from below with the lower-highs trendline near 0.5595.
Support: 0.55815, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5590, 0.56004, 0.56093
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 0.5590 asian low and the lower-highs trendline (~0.5595) neutralises the London range break
Failure at 0.5590 followed by a break of the 0.55815 london low puts the 0.5580 nov-25 low in play
Reclaim of the 0.5600 breman high (61.8% fib zone) breaks the lower-high chain toward the 0.5609 asian high
Kashkari (14:40 UTC) is the next USD headline risk in the NY session
12:03 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since 08:30 UTC · RSI 33 · price 0.55853
Asian and London range lows broken, sequence of lower highs and lower lows into the session low.
A brief spike to the 0.5600 breman high after the 08:00 UTC speech faded. Price then broke the asian low and the 0.5590 london low, printing a session low at 0.55815 just above the 0.5580 18m low as higher US yields kept USD bid. The descending trendline from the post-speech high still caps price, and RSI(14) near 33 is soft but not oversold.
Support: 0.55815, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5590, 0.55927, 0.56004
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 0.5590 london low and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.55815 session low puts the 0.5580 18m low in play
Asian low at 0.55927 and the 0.5600 breman high mark the upper end of any retracement
Kashkari at 14:40 UTC is the next scheduled USD catalyst
Lower highs from 0.5609 Asian high; London below Asian range.
London broke the 0.5593 Asian low and extended a lower-high chain from the 0.5609 Asian high. The bounce around Breman's 08:00 UTC remarks was capped at the 0.5600 Breman high before a fresh session low at 0.55815. Price is now pressing the descending trendline just above the 0.5580 Nov-25 low, with RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 0.55815, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5589, 0.55927, 0.56004
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5589 swing high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.55815 session low exposes the 0.5580 Nov-25 low
Reclaim of the 0.5593 Asian low would undo the London range break
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
Asian range low broken in London; lower-high chain under descending trendline.
The Breman-driven bounce stalled at the 0.5600 breman high. London then broke the Asian range low near 0.5590 and printed lower highs under the descending trendline, with US yields and oil keeping NZD heavy. Price lost yesterday's prior low at 0.55854 and sits just above the 0.55821 session low, roughly 2 pips over the 0.5580 nov-25 low, with RSI(14) near 29.
Support: 0.55821, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55854, 0.5590, 0.56004
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.55854 prior low and the trendline weakens the lower-high read
Recovery through the 0.5590 lower high and the 50% fib near 0.5596 neutralises the session breakdown
Failure to hold the 0.55821 session low puts the 0.5580 nov-25 low in play
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read into the NY session
Asian range broken lower; lower-high chain since the 08:00 UTC spike.
London broke below the 0.5593 asian low. Price has stepped lower in a lower-highs chain since the 08:00 UTC Breman spike to 0.5600 was rejected near the 61.8% fib of the Asia-high leg. It now prints a 0.5584 session low beneath yesterday's 0.5585 prior low, with RSI(14) near 33, as firm US yields and USD keep NZD heavy into the 0.5580 nov-25 low.
Support: 0.5584, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55854, 0.55897, 0.55927
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5580 nov-25 low extends the lower-low sequence toward 0.5555
Close back above 0.5590 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline from the Breman spike
Recovery through the 0.5593 asian low toward the 61.8% fib near 0.5600 negates the range break
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read
11:03 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 37 · price 0.55875
LH/LL chain since Asia high, pressing session low.
The Breman-driven spike to 0.5600 (breman high) was rejected within the hour. London has since printed a lower high at 0.5596 and a string of lower lows, with RSI(14) near 37 as rising US yields keep the USD bid. Late in London, price sits at the 0.5586 session low, just above yesterday's 0.5585 prior low and the 0.5580 Nov-25 low.
Support: 0.55862, 0.55854, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55958, 0.56004
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5585 prior low exposes the 0.5580 nov-25 low
Close above the 0.5596 lower high and the trendline breaks the lower-highs sequence
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to reclaim the 0.5600 breman high keeps the London downtrend structure intact
10:47 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 34 · price 0.55878
Lower-high chain under falling trendline, Asian range broken lower.
London broke the Asian range low near 0.5594. The Breman-driven bounce at 08:00 UTC stalled at the 0.5600 breman high under the falling trendline from the 0.5609 asian high, leaving a lower-high chain grinding into 0.5586 with RSI(14) near 34 as yield-led USD strength holds. Price is pressing the 0.55854 yday low, with the 0.5580 18m low just below.
Support: 0.55854, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55958, 0.56004, 0.56093
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.55854 yday low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5580 18m low
Reclaim of the 0.55958 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high sequence; 0.56004 breman high is next
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian high at 0.56093 is the top of the trendline and the fib swing
10:32 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 39 · price 0.55883
Asian range low broken in London; lower-high chain pressing the session low.
The early-Asia push to the 0.5609 Asian high has unwound into a lower-high chain. London broke the 0.5593 Asian low, and the Breman spike to 0.5600 was faded inside an hour. Price is now grinding along the 0.5588 session low with RSI near 39 and ATR around 4 pips, as firm US yields keep NZD heavy.
Support: 0.55879, 0.55854, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55927, 0.56004, 0.56093
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5585 24h low leaves the 0.5580 Nov-25 low as the next reference
Recovery back above the 0.5593 asian low would mark the London break as a false break
Trendline from 0.5606 to the 0.5600 breman high caps the lower-high sequence; a close above it changes the read
US Jobless Claims around the NY open and Kashkari later in NY hours could materially shift this read
10:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 38 · price 0.55888
Lower highs from 0.5609; Asian range broken lower.
London broke below the Asian range low near 0.5593. The Breman-driven pop at 08:00 UTC stalled at the 0.5600 breman high and was rejected, and price has since slipped through the 0.5590 london lows to the 0.5588 session low, with RSI(14) near 38. Firm US yields and risk-off keep the trendline of lower highs from the 0.5609 asian high intact, and the prior low at 0.5585 sits just below.
Support: 0.55854, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5590, 0.56004, 0.56093
What it said to watch
Holding below the 0.5590 london lows keeps the lower-high sequence intact
A break of the 0.5585 prior low exposes the 0.5580 18m low (Nov-2025)
An M15 close back above the 0.5600 breman high and trendline invalidates the lower-high read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read in NY hours
10:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 36 · price 0.55898
Broke below Asian range at London open, lower-high sequence intact.
London broke the Asian low at 0.5594, and the Breman pop at 08:00 UTC was rejected at 0.5600 (the breman high). Lower highs keep stepping down from the Asian high at 0.5609 as risk-off and firm US yields weigh. Price is now pressing yesterday's prior low at 0.5585, with the 0.5580 18m low beneath.
Support: 0.55854, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55943, 0.56004, 0.56093
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5585 prior low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5580 18m low
Recovery back above the 0.5594 asian low and the lower-highs trendline negates the breakdown read
A reclaim of the 0.5600 breman high reopens the 0.5609 asian high
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read
09:47 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs off Asian peak · RSI 40 · price 0.55905
Lower highs, flat floor at 0.5590.
Lower highs since the 0.5609 Asian high. The bounce on Breman's 08:00 UTC speech was rejected at the 0.5600 breman high, and price is back on the 0.5590 session low with firm USD and yields capping rallies. RSI(14) near 40 shows no extreme; the London session floor has been tested four times.
Support: 0.55902, 0.55854, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.56004, 0.56093
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5590 session low exposes the 0.5585 prior low, then the 0.5580 nov-25 low
Close above the 0.5600 breman high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and Kashkari 14:40 UTC could shift USD and yields into NY
09:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 41 · price 0.55913
London broke below the Asian range; lows clustering at 0.5590.
Lower highs from the 0.5609 Asian high carried London below the 0.5594 Asian low. Breman's 08:00 UTC remarks produced only a brief pop to 0.5600 (breman high) that faded as the USD yield bid held. Price is now pressing the 0.5590 London low for a third time, with RSI(14) near 41 and well short of oversold.
Support: 0.5590, 0.55854, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55943, 0.5600, 0.56093
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5590 London low exposes the 0.5585 prior low and the 0.5580 Nov-25 low
Reclaim of the 0.5594 Asian low and a break above the 0.5600 breman high invalidates the lower-highs read
Asian high at 0.5609 is the session ceiling if the lower-highs line breaks
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and Kashkari 14:40 UTC could shift the read via yields
08:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 39 · price 0.55941
London range 0.5590–0.5600 below a falling Asian-high trendline.
London broke the Asian low near 0.5593 and has since held a tight 0.5590–0.5600 band, with a lower-high chain from the 0.5609 asian high. Breman's 08:00 UTC speech produced a spike to the 0.5600 breman high that faded straight back into the range. Firm USD and yields near 5.3% keep supply capping rallies, and price sits below both EMAs.
Support: 0.55905, 0.55854, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.56004, 0.56093
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5600 breman high and the falling trendline would break the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 0.5590 london low exposes yesterday's 0.5585 prior low and the 0.5580 18m low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Waller/Musalem remarks could break the London range
Reclaim of the 0.5609 asian high would negate the session downtrend read
08:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, bouncing from London low · RSI 45 · price 0.55992
Lower highs from Asian high, double low at 0.5590.
Slide from the 0.5609 Asian high broke the Asian range low, and London twice printed the 0.5590 London low before the pair firmed during Breman's 08:00 UTC remarks. Price is now retesting the 0.5600 round number, which coincides with the 50% fib of the Asian-high slide and the descending line off the lower high at 0.5606. RSI(14) is neutral near 45 and ATR is about 4 pips.
Support: 0.55905, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56056, 0.56093
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5600 round number and the descending line opens the 0.5606 lower high, then the 0.5609 asian high
Failure back below the 0.5590 london low exposes the 0.5585 prior low from Wednesday's session
Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read via the USD
Lower highs from the Asian high, London base at 0.5591.
NZDUSD has faded from the 0.5609 Asian high into London, with risk-off and 5.3% US yields weighing. Price slipped below the Asian range low to a 0.5591 london low, tested twice, and is now pressing the lower-highs line near 0.5596. Breman's 08:00 UTC remarks drew a muted reaction so far; RSI(14) is near 38 and ATR is about 4 pips.
Support: 0.55905, 0.55854, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56056, 0.56093
What it said to watch
Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 0.5591 london low exposes the 0.5585 prev day low and the 0.5580 nov-25 low
An M15 close above the 0.5600 round number breaks the lower-highs line; the 0.5606 swing high and 0.5609 asian high sit above
A delayed hawkish read of Breman lifting NZD would challenge the London leg lower
08:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 35 · price 0.55927
Asian range broken lower at London open; price holding just above the 0.5590 London low.
London open broke the 0.5594 Asian low as higher oil and US yields kept risk appetite soft. Price has since printed a twin London low near 0.5590 with the old Asian low capping, below a lower-high sequence from the 0.5609 Asian high. Breman is speaking now, with Waller at 08:30 UTC.
Support: 0.55905, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.55943, 0.56006, 0.56093
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5590 london low exposes the 0.5585 prior low from Wednesday
Reclaim of the 0.5594 asian low and a close above the 0.5600 session high break the lower-high trendline
Breman (08:00 UTC) and Waller (08:30 UTC) can move price well beyond the ~4-pip ATR
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC are the NY-session risk
07:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asian peak · RSI 37 · price 0.55943
Asian range low broken pre-London; chopping just above session low.
The Asian high at 0.5609 was rejected and gave way to a descending lower-high line. Pre-London selling broke the Asian range low near 0.5593 and set a session low at 0.5590, with US yields near 2002 highs keeping NZD heavy. Price is compressing between that session low and 0.5597 into London open, with RSI(14) near 37 and ATR about 4 pips.
Support: 0.5590, 0.55855
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56093
What it said to watch
RBNZ Breman speaks at 08:00 UTC; hawkish October-hike cues could squeeze price back through the 0.5600 round number and the lower-high line
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC; a December-hike endorsement keeps pressure on the 0.5590 session low
An M15 close below the 0.5590 session low exposes yesterday's prior low at 0.5585, the top of the YTD-low zone
A reclaim of the 0.5600 round number (50% fib) would neutralise the lower-high sequence; the asian high at 0.5609 caps above
07:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 39 · price 0.55956
Asian range low broken at London open, shallow bounce under lower high.
The Asian session topped at the 0.56093 asia high and has printed lower highs under a falling trendline. London open broke the Asian range low to the 0.55905 london low before a bounce to 0.5596, still capped below the 0.56006 lower high. Yield-driven USD strength keeps NZD heavy into Breman's speech, with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 0.55905, 0.55854, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.56006, 0.56093
What it said to watch
Breman speech at 08:00 UTC and Waller at 08:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 0.56006 lower high and the falling trendline negates the lower-high sequence; the 50% fib of the Asia high–London low drop sits near 0.5600
Failure to hold the 0.55905 london low exposes the 0.55854 prior low and the 0.5580 ytd low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could move the pair during NY hours
07:17 UTC
Short-term downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 33 · price 0.55926
Asian range broken lower, LH/LL chain into London open.
The Asian range of 0.5594–0.5609 gave way from 06:00 UTC, and the London open extended the slide to a 0.5590 session low. Price is now retesting the broken asian low at 0.5594 from below. Each bounce since the 0.5609 asian high has printed a lower high, the latest at 0.5601. This matches the yield-driven USD bid, with RSI(14) near 33, not yet stretched.
Support: 0.55905, 0.55854, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55943, 0.56006, 0.56093
What it said to watch
RBNZ Governor Breman at 08:00 UTC and Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 0.5594 asian low and the 0.5601 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline read
Failure to hold the 0.5590 session low exposes yesterday's 0.5585 prior low, then the 0.5580 ytd low
Only a reclaim of the 0.5609 asian high would neutralise the intraday sequence
07:03 UTC
Intraday down, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 32 · price 0.55932
Asian rally fully reversed, price testing Asian low.
The Asia session pop to the 0.5609 Asian high has fully unwound. Price is back on the 0.5593 Asian low into London open, with a lower-high chain (0.5606, 0.5601) capping each bounce under the descending trendline. RSI(14) near 32 is soft but not stretched; the US-yield-driven USD bid still sets the backdrop, and yesterday's 0.5585 swing low sits below.
Support: 0.5593, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.56006, 0.56093
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5593 Asian low exposes the 0.5585 swing low
M15 close above the 0.5601 lower high breaks the descending trendline and neutralises the lower-high chain
RBNZ Breman at 08:00 UTC and Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC could materially shift this read
US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC are the next USD-side catalyst
Asian range 0.5593–0.5609; lower highs since 02:15 UTC high, bounce from session low.
Asia rallied to the 0.5609 asian high, which matched yesterday's London-open top, and was rejected. A lower high at 0.5606 led to a pre-London drop to a fresh asian low at 0.5593, held above yesterday's 0.5585 london low. Price is back at 0.5599, the 38.2% retrace of that asian pullback, below both EMAs, with Breman and Waller due early in the London session.
Support: 0.55927, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.56056, 0.56093
What it said to watch
RBNZ Governor Breman at 08:00 UTC and Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC could break the Asian range either way
M15 close below the 0.5593 asian low exposes the 0.5585 london low
Close above the 0.5606 lower high and the falling trendline invalidates the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.5609 asian high in play
Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC is the next USD risk during NY hours
06:33 UTC
Range-bound, lower highs since Asian peak · RSI 43 · price 0.55984
0.5593–0.5609 range; pre-London dip swept Asian low, back inside.
Late Asia, about 30 minutes before London open. Price has faded from the 0.5609 Asian high through a lower high at 0.5606, and the 05:45 UTC drop briefly undercut the Asian low to a 0.5593 session low before closing back inside. NZD sits under the 0.5600 round number and EMA20 with RSI(14) near 43, held heavy by the yield-driven USD bid.
Support: 0.55927, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56056, 0.56093
What it said to watch
RBNZ Governor Breman at 08:00 UTC could reprice October hike odds and break the range either way
An M15 close below the 0.5593 session low exposes the 0.5585 prior low, the edge of the 0.5580–0.5585 YTD low zone
Reclaiming the 0.5600 round number and the 50% fib of the Asian high-to-session low move (0.5601) brings the 0.5606 lower high and 0.5609 Asian high back into view
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC are the USD-side risk
06:18 UTC
Sideways-to-heavy, lower highs since Asian high · RSI 42 · price 0.55976
Lower highs from 0.5609, double test of 0.5593 floor.
Late Asia faded from the 0.5609 asian high and dropped through the 0.5600 round number. Price tagged 0.5593, matching the rollover low; the asian low printed with a rejection wick, and the pair now sits just below the round number with RSI(14) near 42, ATR about 3 pips and price under both EMAs. NZD stays heavy near 0.5600 with US yields at 24-year highs, and yday low at 0.5585 is the next reference below.
Support: 0.55927, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56056, 0.56093
What it said to watch
A close back above the 0.5600 round number reclaims the asian drop fib 38.2–50% zone (0.5599–0.5601)
Failure to hold the 0.5593 asian low exposes yday low at 0.5585, near the YTD-low area
The asian lower highs trendline and the 0.5606 ny high cap the session; a move through the 0.5609 asian high negates the lower-high sequence
RBNZ Governor Breman at 08:00 UTC and Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC, both around London open, could materially shift this read; US jobless claims follow at 12:30 UTC
Late-Asia fade from session high, testing Asian low.
Late Asia session, pre-London. Price was rejected at a 0.5606 lower high below the 0.5609 Asian high, then slipped back through the 0.5600 round number on yesterday's yield-driven USD bid. The latest bar is testing the 0.5594 Asian low, which lines up with the 61.8% retrace of the rally off yesterday's 0.5585 NY low; RSI(14) is near 29 and ATR runs about 3 pips.
Support: 0.55943, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56056, 0.56093
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5594 Asian low breaks the Asian range and exposes the 0.5585 NY low, near the 0.5580–0.5585 YTD low zone
Reclaim of the 0.5600 round number and the 0.5606 lower high neutralises the down-leg read; the 0.5609 Asian high caps above
RBNZ Governor Breman at 08:00 UTC and Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC could materially shift this read; US jobless claims follow at 12:30 UTC
05:48 UTC
Flat, momentum fading after Asia pop · RSI 47 · price 0.56009
Lower highs pressing onto a flat 0.5600 base.
Asia rallied from the 0.55943 asian low to the 0.56093 asian high. That high was rejected just under yesterday's 0.56105 prior high, and price has since printed a lower high at 0.56056 while holding the 0.5600 psych, the 61.8% retrace of the Asia rally fib. In late Asia, price sits below EMA20 and on EMA50 with RSI(14) near 47 and ATR(14) under 3 pips, and the pair stays heavy with US yields near 24-year highs.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55943, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.56056, 0.56093, 0.56105
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.5600 psych breaks the Asian base and exposes the 0.55943 asian low, then the 0.55854 prior low
M15 close above the 0.56056 lower high voids the lower-highs read, with the 0.56093 asian high and 0.56105 prior high above
RBNZ's Breman at 08:00 UTC and Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC, shortly after London open, could materially shift this read; US Jobless Claims follow at 12:30 UTC
Lower highs off the Asian high, compressing above the 0.5599 pullback low.
Late Asia session: the rally to the 0.5609 asian high retraced to the 61.8% of the asian rally fib at the 0.5599 pullback low. Price has since printed lower highs inside a 0.5599–0.5606 band, sitting on EMA50, with NZD pinned near 0.5600 by firm USD and near-24-year-high yields after the hawkish FOMC Minutes.
Support: 0.55993, 0.55943, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.56056, 0.56093, 0.56105
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5599 pullback low exposes the 0.5594 asian low, then yesterday's 0.5585 day low
Break of the 0.5606 range top and the lower highs line puts the 0.5609 asian high and 0.5611 prior high back in play
RBNZ Governor Breman at 08:00 UTC and Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC could materially shift this read
London open at 07:00 UTC typically sets the first break of the current range
05:17 UTC
Sideways, compressing near 0.5600 · RSI 50 · price 0.56045
Inside Asian range, higher low at 0.55993.
Late Asia session, price is holding inside the 0.55943–0.56093 Asian range. The 02:15 UTC push to the asian high retraced to the 61.8% fib, leaving a higher low at 0.55993 just under 0.5600, and price has since edged back up. Yesterday's yield-driven London low at 0.55854 has been fully recovered. RSI(14) is flat near 50 and ATR is about 2.7 pips, so ranges are tight ahead of London open.
Support: 0.55993, 0.55943, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.56093, 0.56105
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56093 asian high and the 0.56105 prior high breaks the Asian range top
Loss of the 0.55993 higher low and the higher-low line reopens the 0.55943 asian low
A break below the 0.55854 london low would turn intraday structure to lower lows
RBNZ Breman speaks at 08:00 UTC and Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC; either could break the Asian range
Asian range 0.5594–0.5609 inside yesterday's 0.5585–0.5611 range.
Late Asia session. Price dipped to the 0.5594 asian low, rallied to the 0.5609 asian high, then pulled back to hold the 0.5600 round number near the 61.8% of the Asia rally fib. It now sits mid-range just under yesterday's 0.5606 ny high, with higher lows building off the 0.5585 prior low set in the London-NY selloff as US yields lifted the USD. ATR(14) near 2.7 pips shows ranges compressed ahead of Breman.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55943, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.56056, 0.56093, 0.56105
What it said to watch
RBNZ Breman at 08:00 UTC and Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC could break the 0.5594–0.5609 Asian range in the first hours of London
M15 close above the 0.5611 prior high clears yesterday's range and the ny high cap
Loss of the 0.5600 round number and the 0.5594 asian low breaks the higher lows line, exposing the 0.5585 prior low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC are the NY session risk for the USD leg
04:47 UTC
Sideways, compressed around 0.5600 · RSI 53 · price 0.56027
Inside Asian range 0.5594–0.5609, higher low at 0.5599.
Late Asia session, ahead of London open: price sits mid-range at 0.5603 after the pullback from the 0.5609 asian high held a swing low at 0.5599, near the 61.8% fib of the Asian leg, and printed rising lows off 0.5594. The pair stays pinned near 0.5600 as US yields near 2002 highs keep USD firm. RSI(14) is neutral at 53 and ATR(14) has compressed to about 3 pips ahead of Breman.
Support: 0.55993, 0.55943, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.56093, 0.56105
What it said to watch
RBNZ Governor Breman at 08:00 UTC and Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC could break the compression either way
M15 close above the 0.5609 asian high and 0.5610 prior high takes out the 24h range top
Failure to hold the 0.5599 swing low breaks the rising lows and puts the 0.5594 asian low in play
A move below the asian low exposes the 0.5585 prior low from NY hours
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC are the next USD risk
04:32 UTC
Sideways, mid-range after rejection · RSI 56 · price 0.5602
Late-Asia range 0.5594–0.5609 inside the 24h 0.5585–0.5610 band; higher low at 0.5599.
Late Asia session, price sits at 0.5602. A 15-pip leg off the 0.5594 Asian low was rejected at the 0.5609 Asian high, just under yesterday's 0.5610 London prior high, and has since retraced to the 61.8% of the Asian leg fib. The 0.5599 swing low printed a higher low on the rising lows trendline from the 0.5585 prior low. Price is flat at EMA20, and supply is capping rallies as USD holds firm on 5%+ US yields.
Support: 0.55993, 0.55943, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.56093, 0.56105
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5610 prior high breaks the 24h range top
Loss of the 0.5599 swing low and the 0.5594 Asian low breaks the rising lows trendline and exposes the 0.5585 prior low
RBNZ Breman at 08:00 UTC and Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC, around London open, could materially shift this read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC are the next USD catalyst in NY hours
04:17 UTC
Sideways, Asian bounce fading · RSI 54 · price 0.56023
24h range 0.5585–0.5610; Asian higher low, pullback holding 0.5599.
The Asian session rallied from the 0.5594 asian low to the 0.5609 asian high and was rejected just under the 0.5610 prior high. The pullback held at 0.5599, roughly the 61.8–78.6% zone of that move. Price is now coiling around 0.5602 on EMA20, with NZD pinned near 0.5600 as US yields sit at 2002 highs.
Support: 0.55993, 0.55943, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.56093, 0.56105
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5609 asian high and 0.5610 prior high breaks the 24h range top
Failure to hold the 0.5599 pullback low exposes the 0.5594 asian low, then the 0.5585 day low
RBNZ Governor Breman at 08:00 UTC and Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC, around London open, could materially shift this read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC is the next USD risk during NY hours
04:03 UTC
Intraday range, mild upward tilt off the lows · RSI 59 · price 0.5604
Inside Asian range 0.5594–0.5609, higher low at 0.5600.
Late Asia session, ahead of London. Price is rotating inside the Asian range 0.5594–0.5609 after recovering the 0.5585 NY low as the USD eased from its yield-driven highs. The pullback from the Asian high found a higher low at 0.5600, the 61.8% fib of the overnight leg. RSI(14) is near 59 and ATR(14) is about 3 pips, so moves are compressed.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55943, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.56093, 0.56105
What it said to watch
RBNZ Governor Breman speaks at 08:00 UTC (~4h); it is the main catalyst for a break of the Asian range
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could reassert USD strength via yields
M15 close above the 0.5609 Asian high and the 0.5611 prior high clears yesterday's London-open top
Loss of the 0.5600 higher low and the rising support line puts the 0.5594 Asian low and the 0.5585 NY low back in focus
Asian range 0.5594–0.5609, higher low held at 0.5600.
Yesterday's London slide to the 0.5585 prior low came as US yields rebounded. NY retraced the drop to the 0.5606 ny high, and the Asia session pushed from the 0.5594 asian low to 0.5609. That asian high stalled just under the prior-day top. The pullback held the 0.5600 round number near the 61.8% of the Asian leg as a higher low, leaving price mid-range at 0.5604 with ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5594, 0.5585
Resistance: 0.5606, 0.5609
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5609 asian high breaks the session range and clears the prior-day top
Loss of the 0.5600 round number and the asian higher low trendline reopens the 0.5594 asian low, then the 0.5585 prior low
RBNZ Governor Breman speaks at 08:00 UTC and Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC, which could materially shift this read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) is a yields-driven risk for the pair
03:32 UTC
Intraday range, mild recovery off the day low · RSI 52 · price 0.56014
Asian range 0.5594–0.5609; pullback to the 61.8% retrace holding.
The Asia session ran from the 0.5594 asian low to the 0.5609 asian high, stalling just under yesterday's 0.5610 prior high. Price then gave back to the 0.5599 swing low, at the 61.8% retrace, and sits mid-range at 0.5601. RSI(14) is neutral near 52 and ATR is about 3 pips, which leaves this a range, not a trend. Higher lows hold off the 0.5585 day low, set during the London-NY transition as US yields pushed higher.
Support: 0.55993, 0.55943, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.56093, 0.56105
What it said to watch
RBNZ Governor Breman at 08:00 UTC and Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC around the London open could break the Asian range either way
A close below the 0.5599 swing low breaks the 61.8% retrace and exposes the 0.5594 asian low
Loss of 0.5594 breaks the higher lows and puts the 0.5585 day low back in play
A close above the 0.5609 asian high and the 0.5610 prior high breaks the Asian range top
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) feeds the US-yield driver
03:17 UTC
Sideways, Asia rally fading · RSI 51 · price 0.56008
0.5585–0.5610 range; Asia higher low at 0.5594, pullback to 0.5600.
The Asia session lifted NZD from the 0.5594 asia low to the 0.5609 asia high. It stalled just under yesterday's 0.5610 London high and has since given back about 61.8% of the move to the 0.5600 psych level, where price sits on a flat EMA50. The 24h structure remains a 0.5585–0.5610 range with a higher-low line off the ny low, RSI(14) neutral near 51 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55943, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.56056, 0.56093
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5600 psych level and the 61.8% Asia rally fib exposes the 0.5594 asia low
An M15 close above the 0.5609 asia high and 0.5610 London high breaks the range top; the 0.5606 ny high is the first cap
A break of the higher-low line and the 0.5585 ny low would confirm a lower-low
RBNZ Governor Breman at 08:00 UTC and Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia higher low at 0.5594, rally capped below prior high, pullback to 50% fib.
The Asia session ran from the asian low at 0.5594 to the asian high at 0.5609, then stalled just under the prior high at 0.5611 and eased back to a pullback low at 0.5602, near the 50% fib of the move. Price sits mid-band inside 0.5585–0.5611, the range set since Wednesday's London-NY slide to the ny low. USD is firm on yields, and NZD is pinned near 0.5600.
Support: 0.56015, 0.55943, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.56093, 0.5611
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5611 prior high breaks the range top
Loss of the 0.5602 pullback low and the 61.8% fib at 0.5600 puts the 0.5594 asian low back in play
A break of the rising lows line from the 0.5585 ny low ends the higher-low sequence
RBNZ Governor Breman speaks 08:00 UTC; this could materially shift the read
Fed's Waller 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims 12:30 UTC are USD-side risk during the London and NY sessions
02:47 UTC
Short-term up, stalling under prior high · RSI 63 · price 0.56058
Asian higher low at 0.5594, break of NY high, shallow pullback.
Asia session's Asian leg ran from the 0.5594 asian low through yesterday's 0.5604–0.5606 NY highs to an asian high at 0.5609, stalling just under the 0.5611 prior high. Price is now easing back toward the 0.5603 breakout area. NZD is still pinned near 0.5600 with US yields firm.
Support: 0.5603, 0.5600, 0.55943
Resistance: 0.56093, 0.56115
What it said to watch
Hold of the 0.5603 breakout area keeps the Asian higher-low sequence intact; a slip back under the 0.5600 round number (61.8% of the Asian leg) undoes it
M15 close above the 0.5611 prior high clears the window top; failure there leaves a rejection below the asian high
Close below the 0.5594 asian low reopens yesterday's 0.5585 swing low
RBNZ Governor Breman (08:00 UTC) and Fed's Waller (08:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Asia breakout above overnight range, testing prior high.
Mid-Asia session, price rallied 15 pips off the 0.55943 asia low and cleared the 0.56056 ny high set on the FOMC-minutes spike. It is now stalling just under the 0.56115 prior high, with RSI(14) near 69 and the bars narrowing. The bounce runs against a yield-driven USD bid that sent the pair to 0.55854 during yesterday's London session.
Support: 0.56056, 0.5600, 0.55943
Resistance: 0.56115, 0.5627
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56115 prior high clears the window top; the 0.5626-0.5628 bounce cap sits above
Slip back below the 0.56056 ny high turns the breakout into a false break; the 0.5600 psych level lines up with the 61.8% fib
Loss of the 0.55943 asia low reopens yesterday's 0.55854 London low
RBNZ Governor Breman speaks 08:00 UTC (~5.5h) and Waller 08:30 UTC; either could materially shift this read
02:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, Asia leg extended · RSI 74 · price 0.56092
Higher low at 0.5594 vs 0.5585 day low; overnight range broken to the upside.
An Asia session rally lifted NZDUSD about 15 pips off the 0.5594 asian low. It cleared the 0.5597–0.5606 overnight range and the 0.5606 ny high, and is now pressing the 0.5611 london high with RSI(14) near 74. The higher low over yesterday's 0.5585 day low holds despite a yield-driven USD bid.
Support: 0.56056, 0.55943, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.56105, 0.56127
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5606 ny high on a retest puts price back inside the overnight range
M15 close above 0.5613 prior high clears yesterday's session tops
Break of the 0.5594 asian low invalidates the higher-low trendline from the day low
RBNZ Governor Breman speaks 08:00 UTC (~6h) and Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC; either could materially shift this read
Asia range break above 0.5600 shelf, higher lows since NY low.
Mid-Asia session, price broke out of the 0.5597–0.5602 overnight range in the last hour. It cleared the 0.56056 FOMC high to set an Asia high at 0.56077, with RSI(14) near 64. Rising lows from yesterday's 0.55854 NY swing low through the 0.55943 asia low mark the recovery, though price remains below the 0.56102 london high left before yesterday's yield-driven slide.
Support: 0.56056, 0.5600, 0.55943
Resistance: 0.56077, 0.56102, 0.56127
What it said to watch
Holding the 0.56056 fomc high keeps the range break intact; a slip back under 0.5600 psych (near the 38.2% of the recovery fib) returns price to the Asian range
Acceptance above the 0.56102 london high exposes yesterday's 0.56127 prior high
A break of the rising lows line and the 0.55943 asia low ends the higher-low sequence
RBNZ Governor Breman speaks at 08:00 UTC (~6h) and Waller at 08:30 UTC; either could materially shift this read
01:47 UTC
Recovering from NY low, higher lows · RSI 61 · price 0.56034
Higher lows inside a 0.5594–0.5606 band.
Early Asia session: price bounced off the 0.5594 asia low and is pressing the session high just under the 0.5606 minutes high (the post-FOMC-minutes spike), with higher lows intact since the 0.5585 ny low despite the yield-driven USD bid. RSI(14) ~61 and ATR ~2.5 pips point to thin, compressed Asian conditions around the 0.5600 psych level.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55943, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.56056, 0.56105
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5606 minutes high breaks the post-NY range top and puts the 0.5610 london high in play
Loss of 0.5600 psych and a break of the 0.5594 asia low would end the higher-lows chain and expose the 0.5585 ny low
RBNZ Governor Breman speaks at 08:00 UTC and Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC; either could materially shift this read
Tight Asian range holding the 50–61.8% retrace of the London-NY rebound.
The rebound from yesterday's 0.5585 swing low peaked at 0.5606 (minutes high) on the hawkish FOMC minutes bar and was rejected as US yields firmed. Early Asia is compressing in a 7-pip range between the 0.5602 Asian high and the 0.5594 Asian low, which sits inside the 50–61.8% fib retrace of that rebound.
Support: 0.55943, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.56016, 0.56056
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5594 Asian low and 61.8% fib exposes the 0.5585 swing low
M15 close above the 0.5602 Asian high reopens the 0.5606 minutes high
RBNZ Governor Breman at 08:00 UTC (~6.5h) and Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:17 UTC
Down on the day, flat since the NY session · RSI 46 · price 0.55976
Tight Asian range inside the 0.5585–0.5606 post-selloff band.
The late-London leg down to the 0.5585 day low, driven by firm US yields and hawkish FOMC minutes, gave way to a 0.5585–0.5606 band. The Asia session is compressed in a 0.5594–0.5602 Asian range, just under the 0.5600 round number and the 38.2% fib, with highs fading along a lower-high trendline from the 0.5606 NY high. ATR is near 2.6 pips and RSI is neutral, so there is no momentum either way.
Support: 0.55943, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56016, 0.56056
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5602 asian high and the lower-high trendline reopens the 0.5606 NY high
Break of the 0.5594 asian low exposes the 0.5585 day low
RBNZ Governor Breman at 08:00 UTC and Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:05 UTC
Flat, drifting lower after NY rebound · RSI 48 · price 0.55981
Tight Asian range below 0.5600, lower highs since FOMC high.
NY bounced off the 0.5585 london low and stalled at the 0.5606 fomc high as hawkish minutes and 5.35% US 10y yields kept USD bid. Highs have stepped lower since along the lower-highs line. Asia session is boxed in a 0.5597–0.5602 range just under 0.5600, sitting on the 38.2% retrace of the NY rebound with ATR compressed near 2.6 pips.
Support: 0.5597, 0.5593, 0.5585
Resistance: 0.5602, 0.5606, 0.5620
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5597 asian low exposes the 0.5593 rollover low and the 61.8% retrace
Failure to hold the 0.5585 london low erases the NY rebound and puts the 0.5580 YTD-low zone in focus
Close above the 0.5606 fomc high breaks the lower-highs line; 0.5620 24h high sits above
RBNZ Breman speech at 08:00 UTC (~7h) and Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:47 UTC
Flat after London selloff, NY bounce faded · RSI 46 · price 0.55983
Tight Asian range below 0.5600, lower highs off NY high.
NZD broke below 0.5600 from the 0.56102 london high as US yields rebounded, and set a 0.55854 swing low at the London-NY transition. The NY bounce stalled at the 0.56056 ny high. Price is now pinned in a 0.55972–0.56016 Asian range, sitting on the 38.2% fib with lower highs capping.
Support: 0.55972, 0.55931, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.56016, 0.56056, 0.56102
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.55972 asian low exposes the fib 61.8 at 0.55931, then the 0.55854 swing low
Break above the 0.56016 asian high and the lower-highs line reopens the 0.56056 ny high
RBNZ Governor Breman at 08:00 UTC and Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC could break this Asian range
Price holding under 0.5600 keeps it near the pair's YTD lows
Early Asia session is holding a 0.5597–0.5602 range just under the 0.5600 psych handle, with lower highs since the 0.5606 minutes high as hawkish FOMC Minutes and 5.30% yields kept USD bid. The NY rebound from the 0.5585 swing low has faded toward its 61.8% retrace, which sits beside the 0.5594 rollover low.
Support: 0.55972, 0.55937, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56016, 0.56056
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5597 session low exposes the 0.5594 rollover low and the 61.8% fib
M15 close above the 0.5602 asian high breaks the lower-high trendline and reopens the 0.5606 minutes high
Loss of the 0.5585 swing low would confirm a lower-low near the YTD low zone
RBNZ Breman speech at 08:00 UTC and Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC (~8h) could materially shift this read
00:17 UTC
Flat after NY sell-off and partial rebound · RSI 48 · price 0.55983
Tight early-Asia range under 0.5602, holding the 38.2% retrace.
The yields-driven USD bid after the hawkish FOMC Minutes sent NZD to a 0.5585 day low in the NY session. The pair then rebounded to a 0.5606 NY high before fading into the close. Early Asia session is compressing in a sub-3-pip ATR range below the 0.5602 Asian high, with price sitting on the 38.2% fib of the NY swing just under EMA20/50.
Support: 0.5598, 0.5594, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.56016, 0.56056
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5594 late low breaks the Asian range and exposes the 0.5585 day low
Close above the 0.5602 Asian high shifts focus back to the 0.5606 NY high
Loss of the 38.2% fib at 0.5598 turns the NY rebound into a deeper retrace of the swing
RBNZ Governor Breman speaks at 08:00 UTC (~8h) and Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC; either could break the compression
Higher lows off 0.5585, tight Asian range at 0.5600.
NZD slid from 0.5621 to a 0.5585 day low into the NY open as US yields and oil lifted the dollar. It then retraced to the 0.5606 bounce high and is now holding just above the 38.2% of that NY bounce fib, with a rising support line from the day low intact. Early Asia is compressing in a 3-pip band between the 0.5599 asian low and 0.5602 asian high, and ATR is under 3 pips.
Support: 0.55989, 0.55937, 0.55854
Resistance: 0.56016, 0.56056, 0.56105
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5594 higher low breaks the rising support from the day low
Loss of the 0.5585 day low reasserts the intraday downtrend
Clearance of the 0.5602 asian high and 0.5606 bounce high reopens the 0.5610 london cap
RBNZ Governor Breman (08:00 UTC) and Fed's Waller (08:30 UTC) in ~8h could materially shift this read