22:05 UTC
Downtrend, relief bounce off 19-month low · RSI 44 · price 0.56304
Lower highs 0.5902→0.5710→0.5658, lower low at 0.5527.
The pair has printed lower highs and lower lows since the early-September 0.5902 sept high. The late-October rebound stalled at a 0.5710 lower high, and last week's USD-driven bounce faded at 0.5658 under the falling trendline. Weak NZ Q3 jobs data and a strong US payrolls beat then pushed price through the 0.5565 oct low to a 19-month low at 0.5527. Monday's election-relief rally reclaimed 0.5600 psych and the oct low, closing at 0.5630, back above EMA(20) and between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the oct-nov leg, but still below a declining EMA(50) near 0.5650.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5565, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.5658, 0.5710, 0.5902
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 0.5658 prior high and the falling trendline would break the lower-high chain
- Failure to hold 0.5600 psych turns Monday's reclaim of the oct low into a retest, with the 0.5527 19-month low next
- US CPI Tue 10 Nov 13:30 UTC and the final NZ election count could materially shift this read
- RSI holding below 50 on the bounce keeps momentum consistent with the downtrend