22:03 UTC
Downtrend, volatility expanding · RSI 45 · price 0.56024
Lower highs and lower lows since the late-August peak.
NZDUSD has been in a downtrend since the 0.5988 peak on 20 August. The late-October rebound stalled at a lower high near 0.5710, close to the 38.2% retracement of the Aug-Nov decline, and last Friday's strong NFP on top of weak NZ jobs data broke the oct low for a 19-month low at 0.5527. Monday's election-relief bounce was capped after Tuesday's hot US CPI, a rejection that left the close at 0.5602, below the ema20 (0.5627) and a falling ema50 (0.5677), with ATR rising from 40 to 52 pips over the last two weeks.
Support: 0.5565, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.5627, 0.56765, 0.5710
What it said to watch
- Daily close back above the ema20 at 0.5627 would mark the first recovery of the short-term trend filter since late October
- A move through the ema50 at 0.5677 and the 0.5710 lower high would break the lower-highs chain and the downtrend read
- Daily close below the oct low at 0.5565 puts the 19-month low at 0.5527 back in play; acceptance below it extends the downtrend
- Fed's Bowman and Paulson speak in ~90 minutes; any endorsement of a 50bp December hike could extend the post-CPI USD bid
- RBNZ Inflation Expectations on 17 Nov is the next high-impact NZD risk to this read