NZD/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Tuesday, 10 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the NZD/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Recovering off the post-CPI low, capped at ema50 · RSI 55 · price 0.56057
Tight 0.5600–0.5606 shelf after an NY afternoon grind higher.
Waller's 50bp remarks and the hot US CPI at 13:30 UTC drove a 63-pip slide from 0.5650 to the 0.5586 cpi low. The NY afternoon recovered to the 0.5600 psych, and the rollover spike to 0.5591 was fully retraced. Early Asia is pressing 0.5605, above the ema20 but just under the ema50 at 0.5606, with ATR at 3.9 pips.
Support: 0.56015, 0.5600, 0.55864
Resistance: 0.56063, 0.56133
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the ema50 at 0.5606 opens the 38.2% fib of the CPI drop at 0.5610 and the 0.5613 swing high
A loss of the ema20 at 0.5602 and the 0.5600 psych puts the 0.5586 cpi low back in view
Bowman and Paulson are speaking now (23:30 UTC); backing for a 50bp December move could knock the pair off the 0.5600 shelf
Tight range 0.5600–0.5605 after recovery from the 0.5586 CPI low.
The hot US CPI print at 13:30 UTC drove a 43-pip leg down to the 0.5586 cpi low during NY hours. The afternoon recovery has stalled at the 0.5605 range top, which is also the 38.2% retracement of the CPI leg, with price pinned between the ema20 (0.5601) and the ema50 (0.5606). The daily-open gap down to 0.5591 filled within three bars, and ATR(14) at 4 pips reflects thin early Asia session conditions.
Support: 0.5601, 0.5591, 0.55864
Resistance: 0.56052, 0.56063, 0.56097
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5605 range top and the ema50 at 0.5606 opens the 50% fib of the CPI leg at 0.5610
Failure to hold the ema20 at 0.5601 and 0.5600 exposes the gap low at 0.5591, then the cpi low at 0.5586
Fed's Bowman and Paulson speak at 23:30 UTC; any 50bp endorsement could materially shift this read
23:16 UTC
Recovering within a down day, pressing ema50 · RSI 55 · price 0.56047
Higher lows off the post-CPI low, capped at 0.5605.
Waller's 50bp talk knocked the pair off the 0.5650 London high, and the hot US CPI (0.4% m/m vs 0.3%) extended the slide to a 0.5586 post-CPI low in NY. NY afternoon and early Asia have since ground back to the 0.5605 recovery high, just under the ema50 at 0.5606, and the rollover gap to the 0.5591 rollover low has been fully retraced. Price holds above the ema20 at 0.5601; ATR(14) at 4.3 pips keeps ranges tight.
Support: 0.56007, 0.5591, 0.55864
Resistance: 0.56052, 0.56064, 0.56133
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the ema50 at 0.5606 opens the 0.5613 post-CPI high
Failure to hold the ema20 and 0.5600 puts the 0.5591 rollover low back in play
Break of the 0.5586 post-CPI low resumes the day's selloff
23:02 UTC
Post-CPI downtrend, consolidating on a shallow rebound · RSI 48 · price 0.5603
Tight 0.5600-0.5605 range under ema50 after the CPI sell-off base.
Hot US CPI at 13:30 UTC knocked NZDUSD from 0.5629 to a 0.5586 post-CPI low. The NY-afternoon recovery has stalled at the 0.5605 range top, which sits on the 38.2% retrace of the CPI drop. The rollover gap low at 0.5591 was fully refilled, and price is now pinned at ema20 below a falling ema50, with RSI(14) neutral at 47.8 and ATR at 4.2 pips.
Support: 0.56002, 0.5591, 0.55864
Resistance: 0.56046, 0.56065, 0.5609
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman and Paulson speak at 23:30 UTC and could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the 0.5605 range top and ema50 at 0.56065 opens the 0.5609 cpi bar low
Failure to hold ema20 near 0.5600 exposes the 0.5591 gap low, then the 0.5586 post-CPI low
Post-CPI low at 0.5586, higher-low recovery capped near 0.5604.
Hot US CPI broke the Asian range low near 0.5626 and drove a slide to the cpi low at 0.5586. After the NY session, the bounce has stalled at the 38.2% retrace of that drop, below the 0.5604 bounce high. Price holds above the ema20 at 0.5600 but below the ema50 at 0.5607; the 0.5591 rollover low gap filled within two bars.
Support: 0.56003, 0.5591, 0.55864
Resistance: 0.56045, 0.56067, 0.56128
What it said to watch
Bowman and Paulson speak at 23:30 UTC, in roughly 45 minutes, and could materially shift this read
A close above the ema50 at 0.5607 and the 50% CPI-drop fib opens the 61.8% fib at 0.5613
Failure to hold the ema20 at 0.5600 exposes the 0.5591 rollover low, then the 0.5586 cpi low
Thin post-NY liquidity: further spikes like the rollover gap may not reflect structure
Lower high at 0.5604 after CPI low; gap down at Asia open.
Hot US CPI knocked the pair from 0.5629 to a 0.5586 cpi low during NY hours. The afternoon rebound stalled at 0.5604, about a 42% retracement, and the early Asia session opened with a gap to an open low at 0.5591, below the ema20 at 0.5600 and the ema50 at 0.5607. RSI(14) is at 37 after a dip to 29, and ATR is a compressed 3.6 pips.
Support: 0.5591, 0.55864
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56024, 0.56069
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the 0.5586 cpi low extends the lower-low sequence
A reclaim of the 0.5600 ema20 and the 0.5602 gap fill would put the 0.5604 rebound high and the ema50 back in play
Failure to hold the 0.5591 open low leaves the gap unfilled
Lower high at 0.5604 after CPI low, rollover gap lower.
Hot US CPI (0.4% vs 0.3%) knocked NZD/USD from 0.5629 to a 0.5586 cpi low. The NY bounce stalled at the 0.5604 ny high, about 42% of the drop on the cpi drop fib, then went flat. A thin rollover open gapped price about 11 pips lower to the 0.5591 rollover low, below the ema20 and ema50, with RSI(14) at 29.3 oversold.
Support: 0.5591, 0.55864
Resistance: 0.56006, 0.56045, 0.56074
What it said to watch
Rollover gap back above 0.5602 reclaims the ema20 and puts the 0.5604 ny high and the ema50 at 0.5607 back in play
M15 close below the 0.5586 cpi low confirms a fresh lower-low
Holding the 0.5591 rollover low through the Asia session would leave the gap read open
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC (~74 min) could materially shift this read
Post-CPI lower low at 0.5586, rebound now compressing below ema50.
The hot US CPI print at 13:30 UTC drove a 43-pip slide from 0.5629 to the post-CPI low at 0.5586. That slide extended the earlier rejection from the 0.5650 session high around Waller's remarks. The rebound has stalled at the 38.2% post-CPI fib near 0.5603, in a 0.5602–0.5604 band: price is just above ema20, below ema50, and ATR has compressed to 3 pips.
Support: 0.56016, 0.5600, 0.55864
Resistance: 0.56045, 0.56081, 0.5609
What it said to watch
Bowman and Paulson speak at 23:30 UTC (~87 min) and could break the compressed range
An M15 close above the 0.56045 range high and the ema50 at 0.5608 brings the 0.5609 cpi bar low into play
A break of the recovery line and the 0.5600 round number reopens the post-cpi low at 0.5586
Tight consolidation 0.5602–0.5604 after a 42% retrace of the CPI drop.
Hot US CPI (0.4% m/m vs 0.3%) knocked NZDUSD from the 0.5629 cpi bar high to a 0.5586 post-CPI low. The NY-afternoon rebound retraced about 42% of that drop to a 0.56045 rebound high. Price is now compressing 0.5602–0.5604 into the Asia session, holding above the ema20 at 0.56015 but below the ema50 at 0.56083, with RSI back to 49 from sub-20 and ATR down to 3.1 pips.
Support: 0.56015, 0.5600, 0.55864
Resistance: 0.56045, 0.56083, 0.56291
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56045 rebound high opens the ema50 at 0.5608, then the 0.5629 cpi bar high
Loss of the ema20 and the 0.5600 round number breaks the rebound trendline and exposes the 0.5586 post-CPI low
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC (~104 min) could break the compression; any 50bp talk extends the post-CPI USD bid
ATR at 3.1 pips and falling: a range break from this compression is likely to see expansion
Post-NY consolidation 0.5602–0.5605, below 50% retrace of the CPI drop.
The hot US CPI print knocked NZD from 0.5629 to a 0.5586 cpi low. The late-NY recovery has stalled at the 0.5605 bounce high, roughly 42% of the CPI drop and just under the ema50 at 0.56085. Price is drifting in a tight range above the ema20, with RSI neutral at 52.9 and ATR compressed to 3.2 pips.
Support: 0.56014, 0.5600, 0.55864
Resistance: 0.56045, 0.56085, 0.5625
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.5605 bounce high and the ema50 at 0.56085 clears the 50% fib and opens the path to the 0.5625 pre-cpi low
Failure to hold the ema20 and the 0.5600 round number exposes the 0.5586 cpi low
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could break the post-NY range, given the 50bp debate
Higher lows off 0.5586 CPI low, stalling at 0.5600-0.5605 below ema50.
London high at 0.5650 reversed on Waller's remarks, and the hot US CPI at 13:30 UTC extended the slide to a 0.5586 cpi low. Late NY has recovered to the 38.2% retrace near 0.5603, holding above the 0.5600 round number and ema20 but capped by the late high at 0.5605 and the ema50 at 0.5609. RSI is back to 51 from 12 and ATR has compressed to 3.3 pips.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55864
Resistance: 0.56045, 0.56087, 0.56133
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema50 and 50% retrace at 0.5609 opens the cpi bounce high at 0.5613
Failure to hold the 0.5600 round number exposes the cpi low at 0.5586
A break above the late high at 0.5605 would extend the higher-low chain
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Post-CPI low at 0.5586, rising lows into 0.5605 cap.
Waller's 50bp remarks during London and the hot US CPI beat took NZDUSD from the 0.5650 session high to a 0.5586 session low in NY hours. The late-session rebound has stalled at the 0.5605 rebound high, holding above the ema20 but below the ema50 at 0.5609. RSI(14) has recovered to 50.5 from 12 and ATR has compressed to 3.4 pips.
Support: 0.56009, 0.55864
Resistance: 0.56045, 0.5609, 0.56133
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5609 ema50 and the 0.5613 post-CPI high (near the 38.2% of the Waller-CPI drop) would mark the first higher high since the selloff
Loss of the rising lows and the 0.5601 ema20 / 0.5600 handle exposes the 0.5586 session low
Fed's Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Post-CPI low at 0.5586, higher lows back to 0.5600.
The hot US CPI beat broke the 0.5625–0.5640 pre-CPI range and extended the selloff to a 0.5586 swing low, with RSI(14) bottoming near 12. Late in the NY session price has climbed back above 0.5600 and the ema20 on a chain of higher lows. It is stalling at the 38.2% fib of the CPI drop, just under the 0.5605 recent high, while ATR compresses to 3.5 pips.
Support: 0.56007, 0.55864
Resistance: 0.56045, 0.56092, 0.5625
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the ema20 / 0.5600 puts the 0.5586 swing low back in focus
Close above the ema50 at 0.5609, the post-CPI shelf, opens the pre-cpi low at 0.5625
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could reprice 50bp December odds and shift this read
Higher-low chain off 0.5586, testing 38.2% retrace.
The hot US CPI beat at 13:30 UTC broke the pre-data range near 0.5625. The selling ran 47 pips to the 0.5586 cpi low during NY hours. Since then a steady higher-low chain has lifted price to the 0.56045 bounce high, at the 38.2% retrace of the CPI drop, with RSI(14) back to 52 from 12. Price holds above the ema20 at 0.56005 but below the ema50 at 0.56095, and ATR(14) has compressed to 3.6 pips after NY close.
Support: 0.56005, 0.55864
Resistance: 0.56045, 0.56095, 0.56151
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.56045 bounce high and the ema50 at 0.56095 extends the recovery toward the post-CPI cpi shelf at 0.5615
A break of the rising trendline and the ema20 near 0.5600 ends the higher-low chain and reopens the 0.5586 cpi low
Bowman speaking now, then Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC, could shift this read if 50bp December talk resurfaces
Higher-low chain off the 0.5586 NY low, below ema50.
The hot US CPI beat (0.4% m/m vs 0.3%) broke the London range below 0.5625 and the slide ran to a 0.5586 NY low, with RSI(14) bottoming near 12. Late NY has since built a higher-low chain back above the ema20 at 0.5600. Price is stalling at the 38.2% fib of the CPI drop, just under the late ny high at 0.5605 and the ema50 at 0.5610, while ATR has compressed to 3.8 pips.
Support: 0.56002, 0.55883, 0.55864
Resistance: 0.56045, 0.56097, 0.56133
What it said to watch
Bowman speaks at 20:30 UTC, then Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC; any backing of a 50bp December hike could materially shift this read
An M15 close above the ema50 at 0.5610 opens the 0.5613 cpi bounce high and the 50% fib near 0.5608–0.5613
A break of the recovery line and ema20 at 0.5600 puts the 0.5588 higher low and the 0.5586 ny low back in play
Failure to clear the late ny high at 0.5605 keeps the bounce capped beneath the declining ema50
Higher-low chain off 0.5586 NY low, stalling under ema50.
The hot US CPI (0.4% m/m) broke the pre-CPI range low at 0.5625 and the drop extended to a 0.5586 NY low. Since then RSI(14) has recovered from 12 to 51 and price has built a higher-low chain back above the ema20/psych level at 0.5600. Price is stalling at the recent high of 0.5605, the 23.6% fib of the 0.5650–0.5586 drop. The ema50 at 0.5610 sits just overhead and ATR(14) has compressed to 3.8 pips.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55864
Resistance: 0.56045, 0.5610, 0.5625
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman speaks in ~30 min. Hawkish 50bp talk could reshape the late-NY read.
An M15 close above the 0.5610 ema50 and the 38.2% fib exposes the 0.5625 pre-CPI low.
A failure at the 0.5605 recent high and a close back below the 0.5600 ema20/psych level breaks the rebound trendline and turns focus to the 0.5586 NY low.
19:46 UTC
Post-CPI downtrend, corrective bounce in late NY · RSI 47 · price 0.56018
Higher-low chain off the 0.55864 cpi low, testing 38.2% retracement.
Waller's comments knocked NZDUSD off the 0.56495 London high. The hot US CPI at 13:30 UTC then broke the range and drove the pair to a 0.55864 cpi low. Late in the NY session, higher lows near 0.5588 have lifted price back above the ema20 at 0.55996, with RSI(14) recovering from 12 to 46.5 and ATR(14) contracting to 3.8 pips. The 38.2% fib at 0.56027 is being tested, and price remains below the ema50 at 0.56103.
Support: 0.55996, 0.55883, 0.55864
Resistance: 0.56027, 0.56103, 0.56291
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the ema50 at 0.56103 neutralises the post-CPI downtrend read, with the cpi high at 0.56291 above
Rejection at the fib 38.2 and failure to hold the higher lows near 0.5588 reopens the cpi low at 0.55864
Higher lows off the 0.5586 CPI low; price testing 0.5600 from below.
The hot US CPI print at 13:30 UTC broke the session range from 0.5629 to a 0.5586 cpi low, extending the slide from Waller's 0.5650 rejection. After London close, NY hours have built higher lows, and price has turned back up to the ema20 to retest the 0.5600 round number. RSI(14) has recovered to 44 from a 12 extreme, while ATR(14) compressed to 3.9 pips from 5.8 pips.
Support: 0.55883, 0.55864
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56048, 0.56107
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5605 breakdown level, the 38.2% of the cpi drop fib, opens the ema50 at 0.5611
Loss of the recovery line and the 0.5588 higher low exposes the 0.5586 cpi low
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC; any 50bp-hike talk could materially shift this read
Higher-low grind off the post-CPI low, capped at ema20 and 0.5600.
Waller capped London at 0.5650. The hot US CPI then broke the pre-cpi shelf near 0.5629 and drove a slide to the 0.5586 cpi low by mid-NY. Since then a late-NY higher-low grind has lifted RSI(14) from 12 to 40 while ATR compressed to 4 pips. Price is pressing the ema20 at 0.5599 just under the 0.5600 psych level, a flag-like bounce sitting barely above the 23.6% of the CPI drop fib.
Support: 0.55883, 0.55864
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56111, 0.56291
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5600 psych level and ema20 opens the 38.2% CPI drop fib near 0.5603 and the ema50 at 0.5611
A break of the recovery line and the 0.5588 higher low puts the 0.5586 cpi low back in play
Reclaiming the 0.5629 pre-cpi shelf would negate the flag read
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC (~74 min) could materially shift this read
Post-CPI lower-low at 0.5586, shallow higher-low recovery below ema20.
The hot US CPI print broke below the Asian range and extended the slide from the 0.5650 London high, Waller's hawkish remarks having already knocked it lower, to a session low at 0.5586 in NY hours. RSI(14) has recovered from 12 to 37 as price grinds back toward ema20 at 0.5600 late in the NY session, with ATR compressing to 4.2 pips. The bounce has retraced less than a quarter of the CPI sell-off.
Support: 0.55944, 0.55864
Resistance: 0.55996, 0.5603, 0.56117
What it said to watch
M15 close above ema20 at 0.5600 opens the 0.5603 breakdown level, then ema50 at 0.5612
Failure to hold the 0.5594 pullback low exposes the 0.5586 session low
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Post-CPI lower highs, base at 0.5586-0.5592, higher low forming.
Waller's 09:00 UTC speech capped the London high at 0.56495. The hot US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke the Asian range low and drove price to a 0.55864 session low. A late-NY bounce off a higher low at 0.55883 is now pressing the ema20 at 0.55998, at the 23.6% retrace of the post-CPI drop. RSI(14) has recovered from 12 to 37.7 and ATR has compressed to 4.4 pips.
Support: 0.55883, 0.55864
Resistance: 0.55998, 0.56133, 0.56291
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 / 0.5600 opens the post-CPI bounce high at 0.56133, near the ema50
Rejection at the ema20 keeps the post-CPI lower-high sequence intact
Break of the 0.55883 higher low and 0.55864 session low resumes the downtrend
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC (~104 min) could shift this read, especially any talk of a 50bp hike
Above 0.56133, the CPI high at 0.56291 is the next level where supply capped price
Lower highs from 0.5649; tight higher lows off 0.5586 in late NY.
The hot US CPI (0.4% m/m, core 0.3%) broke the London range and drove a 43-pip slide to the 0.5586 session low. RSI(14) has recovered to 30.5 from 12.1. Late NY is basing in a tight band of higher lows, with ATR compressing to 4.5 pips and price still below the ema20 at 0.5600.
Support: 0.55922, 0.55864
Resistance: 0.55978, 0.56001, 0.56027
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.5598 minor high and the ema20 at 0.5600 opens a test of the 38.2% fib at 0.5603.
Failure to hold the 0.5592 higher low exposes the 0.5586 session low; a break there resumes the downtrend.
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC (~2h) could materially shift this read.
18:16 UTC
Downtrend, oversold and basing · RSI 26 · price 0.55924
Post-CPI lower lows, tight late-NY base above 0.5586.
London faded from the 0.56495 day high around Waller's remarks. The hot US CPI at 13:30 UTC (0.4% m/m, core 0.3%) then broke the pair out of its 0.5625–0.5635 hold, and it slid about 43 pips to a 0.55864 session low. Late NY is basing at 0.5586–0.5594. RSI(14) has lifted from 12 to 26 and ATR is compressing to 4.6 pips, with price still below the ema20 at 0.56007 and the ema50 at 0.56136.
Support: 0.55883, 0.55864
Resistance: 0.56007, 0.56136
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.55864 session low resumes the post-CPI downtrend and voids the 0.55883 higher low
Recovery through the ema20 at 0.56007 and the 38.2% fib of the CPI drop (~0.5603) shifts the read to a corrective bounce, with the ema50 at 0.56136 the next cap
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Paulson/Bowman at 23:30 UTC; 50bp hike talk could materially shift this read
Post-CPI sell-off basing in a tight range above session low.
The hot US CPI (headline 0.4% vs 0.3%, core 0.3% vs 0.2%) drove a roughly 40-pip NY-session leg down to a 0.5586 session low. That extended the London rejection from the 0.5650 high around Waller's remarks. Price is now basing in a 0.5586–0.5594 range below the ema20 at 0.5602, with RSI(14) at 25.5, up from 12 but still oversold.
Support: 0.55864
Resistance: 0.55942, 0.56015, 0.5609
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5594 range top opens a retest of the ema20 at 0.5602 and the cpi low at 0.5609
Failure to hold the 0.5586 session low extends the lower-low sequence
ATR(14) easing to 4.8 from 5.8 pips; compression inside the range often precedes the next directional bar
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC; any 50bp December framing could materially shift this read
17:47 UTC
Downtrend, oversold and stalling · RSI 19 · price 0.5590
Post-CPI lower highs, tight base above 0.5586 session low.
The slide began when Waller spoke, from the 0.5650 London high. The hot US CPI print (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) extended it, taking NZDUSD through the Asian range low and the 0.5600 pivot to a 0.5586 session low. Late in the NY session price is compressing in a 6-pip box below ema20, with RSI(14) at 18.8 (oversold) and ATR easing to 4.9 pips.
Support: 0.55864, 0.5560
Resistance: 0.55923, 0.56024, 0.56153
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.5592 box top opens a test of ema20 at 0.5602, then the 38.2% CPI selloff fib near 0.5611 and ema50 at 0.5615
Failure to hold the 0.5586 session low extends the lower-low chain toward 0.5560 sup
RSI(14) holding sub-20 while price bases is an extreme reading; a reclaim of 30 would mark momentum relief
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC (and again at 23:30 UTC) could materially shift this read if 50bp December talk is endorsed or rejected
Post-CPI lower highs; tight base above 0.5586 session low.
Hot US CPI at 13:30 UTC broke the London range floor near 0.5625, and NY extended the slide to a 0.5586 session low, about 63 pips off the 0.5650 high set before Waller's 09:00 UTC remarks. Price is now basing in a 5-pip box under the 0.5592 micro high and the post-CPI trendline. RSI(14) is oversold at 19.3 after bottoming at 12.1, ATR is compressing to 5 pips, and ema20 at 0.5604 sits just above the 0.5600 psych level.
Support: 0.55864, 0.5560
Resistance: 0.55923, 0.5600, 0.56037
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5592 micro high and the post-CPI trendline would break the NY lower-high sequence, with 0.5600 psych and ema20 at 0.5604 next
Failure to hold the 0.5586 session low resumes the downtrend, with 0.5560 as next support
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read if 50bp December talk is endorsed or pushed back
Hot US CPI broke the 0.5628-0.5634 London range. NY has since ground about 40 pips lower in a lower-high chain, with price below the ema20 (0.56051) and ema50 (0.56174) and RSI(14) at 19 after a 12 low. Late in the NY session, price is basing just above the 0.55864 session low as ATR eases to 5.2 pips. The 0.5600 round number sits overhead, close to the 38.2% of the CPI leg fib.
Support: 0.55864, 0.5560
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56051
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5600 round number, and then the ema20 at 0.56051, would end the post-CPI lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.55864 session low extends the downtrend toward next support at 0.5560
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC (~3h) could reprice the 25bp vs 50bp December debate and shift this read
17:01 UTC
Downtrend, stalling at lows · RSI 17 · price 0.55899
Lower highs since CPI, tight base above 0.5586.
Hot US CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke NZDUSD from 0.5627 to a 0.55864 session low, extending the lower-highs chain that began with the 0.56495 high set just before Waller's remarks. Late in NY hours price is holding a tight 0.5586–0.5592 consolidation below the ema20 at 0.56066, with RSI(14) at 16.7 deeply oversold. ATR has expanded to 5.5 pips from 3.7 pre-CPI, and the 38.2% retracement of the CPI drop sits near 0.5610.
Support: 0.55864
Resistance: 0.55917, 0.5600, 0.56066
What it said to watch
M15 close above the consol top at 0.5592 and the 0.5600 round number would break the descending-highs line
Failure to hold the 0.55864 session low extends the lower-low chain
Reclaiming the ema20 near 0.5607 would mark the first retracement of the CPI drop
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC, could shift the read if 50bp December talk resurfaces
The hot US CPI print (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke NZDUSD below the 0.5626–0.5642 Asian range and the 0.5625 pre-cpi low during NY hours. Post-CPI lower highs took price to a 0.5586 session low, about 63 pips off the 0.5650 London high. RSI(14) at 12.3 is deeply oversold, ATR(14) has expanded to 5.6 pips, and price sits below both EMAs, with ema20 at 0.5608.
Support: 0.55864, 0.5560
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56083, 0.5625
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5586 session low extends the downtrend toward next support at 0.5560
Reclaim of the 0.5600 psych level and the ema20 at 0.5608 would break the post-CPI lower highs sequence
38.2% retracement of the session drop sits near 0.5611, aligned with the ema20
A return above the 0.5625 pre-cpi low would neutralise the CPI range break
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since CPI, London range broken.
The hot US CPI print (0.4% vs 0.3%, core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke the London range below the 0.5625 pre-CPI low. That extended the slide from the 0.5650 high to a 0.5586 session low during NY hours. RSI(14) at 12.8 is deeply oversold and ATR has expanded to 5.6 pips; price sits below both EMAs, with lower highs capped by the trendline from the CPI high.
Support: 0.55864
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56104, 0.5625
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.5600 psych level would be the first reclaim since the CPI slide
A recovery through ema20 at 0.5610 toward the 0.5625 pre-CPI low would test the breakdown
Failure to hold the 0.5586 session low extends the lower-low chain toward 0.5560
A break above the CPI trendline would end the lower-high sequence
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC, could shift the post-CPI read
Lower highs below ema20 after CPI-driven break of the Asian range.
Hot US CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) extended the decline from the 0.5649 London high after Waller's speech. NZD/USD broke the 0.5617 Asian range low and the 0.5600 psych level, printing a session low at 0.5589 in NY hours on a falling trendline of lower highs. RSI(14) at 12.1 is extreme and ATR has expanded to 5.8 pips, with the 38.2% fib of the decline sitting near ema20 at 0.5613.
Support: 0.55887, 0.5560
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56048, 0.56126
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 0.5600 psych and the 0.5605 post-CPI low would break the lower-high sequence on the falling trendline
Failure to hold the 0.5589 session low leaves 0.5560 support next in focus
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC, on 25 vs 50bp could extend or unwind the CPI move
Post-CPI lower highs and lower lows below the Asian range.
Hot US CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke the pair below the Asian range low at 0.5617 during NY hours. It then extended to a 0.5590 session low through a clean chain of lower highs. RSI(14) at 13.6 is deeply oversold, ATR has expanded to 5.8 pips, and price sits below the ema20 at 0.5615 and the EMA50, with 0.5600 psych now overhead.
Support: 0.55901, 0.5560
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.5615, 0.56213
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above 0.5600 psych and the lower-highs trendline would mark the first break in the post-CPI sequence.
Reclaiming the ema20 and Asian range low near 0.5615, then the post-CPI high at 0.5621, would neutralise the breakdown read.
Failure to hold the 0.5590 session low exposes next support at 0.5560.
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC on 25 vs 50bp could extend or unwind the CPI move.
Post-CPI lower highs, London range broken, 0.5600 lost.
Hot US CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke the 0.5628–0.5634 London range at 13:30 UTC, extending the Waller-driven drop from the 0.5650 Asia high. Post-CPI highs have capped along a descending trendline, and price has lost the 0.5600 psych level and the cpi base near 0.5605 to print a fresh session low at 0.5597 in NY hours. RSI(14) at 15.3 is deeply oversold, and ATR has expanded to 5.7 pips from 3.6.
Support: 0.55967, 0.5560
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.5605, 0.56173
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 0.5600 psych and the cpi base at 0.5605 would mark the break as a false break
M15 close above ema20 at 0.5617, near the 38.2% fib of the drop, breaks the lower-high chain
Extension below the 0.5597 session low leaves 0.5560 as the next support from the digest
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC on the 25 vs 50bp December question could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since CPI; London range broken lower.
Hot US CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke the London range at the 0.5625 pre-CPI low and extended the slide from the 0.5650 London high to a fresh session low at 0.5602 during NY hours. Lower highs at 0.5621 and 0.5613 cap the bounces, price trades below the ema20 at 0.5619, and RSI(14) at 18.2 is deeply oversold while ATR(14) has expanded to 5.6 pips.
Support: 0.56021, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56133, 0.56194, 0.5625
What it said to watch
0.5600 psych is next; failure to hold it extends the lower-low chain.
An M15 close above the 0.5613 lower high breaks the post-CPI trendline and softens the downtrend read.
A move back above the ema20 and the 0.5625 pre-CPI low would reclaim the London range and neutralise the CPI break.
Fed's Bowman speaks in ~5h (20:30 UTC). Any endorsement of a 50bp December hike could reprice USD again.
Lower highs below the post-CPI high; London range broken.
Hot US CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke the 0.5625–0.5634 London range in early NY. That extended the Waller-driven slide from the 0.5650 session high to a 0.5605 session low, with lower highs printed since the 0.5621 post-CPI high. RSI(14) at 21 is oversold, ATR(14) has expanded to 5.5 pips from 3.6, and price trades below both EMAs (ema20 0.5624, ema50 0.5628).
Support: 0.56048, 0.56017, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56151, 0.56213, 0.56238
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.5602 prior NY low exposes the 0.5600 round number
Recovery above the 0.5615 lower high and the 0.5621 post-CPI high breaks the lower-high chain, with ema20 at 0.5624 just above
Fed's Bowman speaks in ~5.7h (20:30 UTC); 50bp hike talk could materially shift this read
14:32 UTC
Downtrend, post-CPI leg stretched · RSI 22 · price 0.56092
Lower highs since London high; pre-CPI range broken lower.
The hot US CPI print (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke the 0.5625–0.5634 pre-data range in the first hour of NY. That extended the lower-high sequence that began when Waller capped the 0.5650 London high. Price is pinned just above the 0.5607 post-CPI cpi low, with RSI(14) oversold at 22.2 and ATR expanding to 5.4 pips; yesterday's 0.5602 prior low and the 0.5600 round number sit directly below.
Support: 0.56073, 0.56017, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56151, 0.56254, 0.56291
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5602 prior low and 0.5600 round number extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the 0.5615 bounce high and the ema20 at 0.5625 (38.2% fib) would neutralise the CPI breakdown
ema50 at 0.5629 lines up with the CPI-bar high and caps any deeper retracement
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could re-price 50bp December odds and shift this read
London range 0.5625-0.5634 broken lower on hot US CPI; lower highs since the London high.
Hot US CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) broke the London low at 0.5625 in the first hour of NY. The drop extends the slide from the 0.5650 London high that began with Waller's 50bp talk. Price is pressing a 0.5607 session low with RSI(14) at 22.8, ATR at 5.4 pips and rising, and EMA20 now crossed under EMA50.
Support: 0.56073, 0.56017
Resistance: 0.56213, 0.5625, 0.5627
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.5602 prior low exposes the 0.5600 psych pivot
Reclaim of the 0.5621 post-CPI high and then the 0.5625 London low, near ema20 at 0.5627, would mark the break as a false break
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC (in about 6h) could extend or unwind the CPI move
Fib retracement of the London high sell-off maps the bounce zones if the session low holds
Lower highs since London high; post-Waller range broken lower on CPI.
Hot US CPI (headline 0.4%, core 0.3% vs 0.3%/0.2% f/c) knocked NZDUSD through the 0.5625 range floor to a 0.5609 cpi low, extending the lower-highs sequence from the 0.5649 london high that Waller's 50bp talk capped. Price sits below the ema20 at 0.5629 and the ema50 at 0.5631. RSI(14) is oversold at 23.2 and ATR has expanded to 5.3 pips from 3.6 in the first hour of NY.
Support: 0.5609, 0.56017
Resistance: 0.5625, 0.56286, 0.56495
What it said to watch
A close back above 0.5625 range floor puts the CPI break at risk of a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5609 cpi low exposes the 0.5602 prior low and the 0.5600 round number
Lower highs stay intact while price holds below the ema20 at 0.5629
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could revive the 50bp December hike debate
13:46 UTC
Downtrend, impulsive leg on hot CPI · RSI 29 · price 0.56176
Lower highs since London high, CPI bar broke drift lows.
Hot US CPI (headline 0.4% vs 0.3%, core 0.3% vs 0.2%) extended the selloff that began when Waller spoke at the 0.5650 London session high. The 13:30 UTC bar spiked to a 0.5609 CPI low and broke the 0.5625 break level that had capped the lower-highs drift. Price sits below the ema20 at 0.5630, RSI(14) at 29 is oversold and ATR(14) has expanded to 4.8 pips from 3.7.
Support: 0.5609, 0.56017
Resistance: 0.5625, 0.56304, 0.56495
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5609 cpi low exposes the 0.5602 prior low from yesterday's NY session and the 0.5600 pivot
An M15 close back above the 0.5625 break level and the ema20 near 0.5630 would neutralise the CPI breakdown and test the lower highs line
A retrace of the Waller-CPI leg stalling below the 38.2% level keeps the session high at 0.5650 out of reach
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC could revive the Waller 50bp repricing
Lower highs from London high, pre-CPI floor broken.
Waller's hawkish remarks triggered a rejection from the 0.5650 london high early in London. Lower highs then kept price below both EMAs, and the US CPI bar at NY open cut through the 0.5625 pre-cpi low to a 0.5609 cpi low. ATR(14) had compressed to 3.7 pips into the release from 5.0, with RSI(14) at 39.1, and the monday low at 0.5602 sits just beneath.
Support: 0.5609, 0.56017
Resistance: 0.5625, 0.56316, 0.56495
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5625 pre-cpi low would mark the CPI drop as a false break back into the London range
Failure to hold the 0.5609 cpi low exposes the 0.5602 monday low and 0.5600 psych
Recovery through ema20 at 0.5632 breaks the lower-highs sequence
Fed's Bowman speaks in ~7h and could shift the post-CPI read
13:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London · RSI 38 · price 0.56255
Lower highs under falling trendline; closed below 0.5628 range floor into CPI.
Waller's hawkish warning knocked NZDUSD about 15 pips off the 0.5650 session high early in London. Every bounce since has formed a lower high under the falling trendline, and price has now closed below the 0.5628 range floor and the flat ema20/50 at 0.5632. ATR(14) has compressed to 3.6 pips and RSI(14) at 37.8 is soft but not oversold heading into US CPI.
Support: 0.56166, 0.56017
Resistance: 0.5628, 0.5632, 0.56495
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~14 min; core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
Hold below the 0.5628 range floor keeps the lower-high sequence intact; next swing low sits at 0.5617, then the prior low at 0.5602
M15 close back above the ema20/50 at 0.5632 and the falling trendline invalidates the intraday downtrend read
A return to the 0.5650 session high would erase the post-Waller drop
London pushed NZDUSD to a 0.5650 session high before Waller's hawkish warning at 09:00 UTC triggered a sharp rejection. Since then a descending lower-high line has pressed price onto the 0.5628 London low, below the ema20 at 0.5633, with ATR(14) compressed to 3.7 pips and RSI(14) at 41 into the London-NY transition ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.56278, 0.56262, 0.56166
Resistance: 0.56326, 0.56386, 0.56495
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (ADP 4-week average at 13:15) could materially shift this read; a soft core print points back toward the 0.5650 session high
M15 close below the 0.5628 London low exposes the 0.5626 Asian low, then the 0.5617 rollover low
M15 close above the ema20 and lower-high line near 0.5633 ends the compression; 0.5639 lower high is next
12:46 UTC
Range-bound after rejection from session high · RSI 47 · price 0.56313
Tight 0.5628–0.5634 consolidation below both EMAs after Waller-driven drop; lower highs since.
London took out the asian high at 0.5642 and printed a session high at 0.56495. Price then dropped about 15 pips on Waller's tightening warning at 09:00 UTC. Since then it has compressed between the 0.5628 london low and the ema20 at 0.5633, with lower highs, RSI(14) near 47 and ATR(14) contracting to 3.6 pips ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.56278, 0.56262, 0.56166
Resistance: 0.5633, 0.5642, 0.56495
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~44 min) with ADP 4-week average at 13:15 UTC; either can break this compression
M15 close below the 0.5628 london low exposes the asian low at 0.5626 and the 0.5617 gap low from the rollover
M15 close above the ema20 at 0.5633 and the post-waller highs line reopens the 0.5642 asian high and the 0.56495 session high
Price sits between the 50% and 61.8% of the rollover-high fib; holding the 61.8% near 0.5629 keeps the range read intact
London pushed through the 0.5642 Asian high to a 0.5650 London high. Waller's hawkish remarks then drove a 15-pip rejection back into the Asian range. Price now sits at the 61.8% fib of the overnight rally near 0.5629, below the ema20 and ema50, with lower highs capping, RSI(14) at 40 and ATR(14) compressed to 3.6 pips ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.56278, 0.56166
Resistance: 0.56331, 0.56424, 0.56495
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~60 min) could materially shift this read, and compressed ATR leaves room for range expansion on the print
Failure to hold the 0.5628 london low breaks the 61.8% fib and exposes the 0.5617 gap low from the rollover
M15 close above the ema20 at 0.5633 and the lower highs line neutralises the post-rejection drift
Reclaim of the 0.5642 asian high reopens the 0.5650 london high and the 0.5640-0.5645 confluence
12:16 UTC
Pullback from London high, flat into CPI · RSI 44 · price 0.56314
False break above Asian high, now tight range 0.5628–0.5634.
London broke the Asian high at 0.5642 and printed a session high at 0.5650, then Waller's tightening warning knocked the pair back inside the Asian range. Since then price has compressed in a 6-pip box between the 0.5628 London low and the 0.5634 range top, sitting just under both EMAs and between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the overnight rally from the 0.5617 rollover low. RSI is at 43.5 and ATR has eased to 3.7 pips ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.56278, 0.56262, 0.56166
Resistance: 0.56339, 0.56424, 0.56495
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~75 min) is the catalyst most likely to break this range; ADP 4-week average lands 15 min earlier
M15 close below the 0.5628 london low exposes the 0.5626 asian low and the 61.8% retracement
Close back above the 0.5634 range top and EMA20 reopens the 0.5642 asian high
Loss of 0.5626 puts the 0.5617 rollover low back in view
False break of Asian high, now tight box inside Asian range.
London pushed through the asian high at 0.56424 to a session high of 0.56495. The high-volume 09:00 UTC bar around Waller's speech then reversed it, a false break back into the Asian range. Since the 0.56278 london low, price has compressed between 0.5628 and 0.5634, just under the ema20 (0.56338) and EMA50, with RSI(14) at 44 and ATR easing from 5.0 to 3.8 pips ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.56278, 0.56262
Resistance: 0.56338, 0.56424, 0.56495
What it said to watch
US ADP at 13:15 UTC and CPI at 13:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the london low 0.56278 and asian low 0.56262 extends the London drop
Recovery above ema20 and the 61.8% of the London drop (~0.5641) brings the asian high and session high back into play
London false break above Asian high reversed; tight 0.5628–0.5634 base.
London pushed through the Asian high at 0.5642 to a 0.5650 London high, then a 15-pip flush around the Fed's Waller speech left a false break. Price has been coiling just above the 0.5628 London low, below the ema20 (0.5634) and ema50, with RSI(14) at 43.8 and ATR shrinking to 3.9 pips ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.56278, 0.56166
Resistance: 0.5634, 0.56424, 0.56495
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (ADP 13:15) could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the ema20 at 0.5634 and the 0.5642 Asian high negates the false-break read
Failure to hold the 0.5628 London low exposes the 0.5617 gap low from the daily open
11:31 UTC
Intraday pullback after London rejection · RSI 46 · price 0.56322
Lower highs compressing above London low, below both EMAs.
London cleared the 0.5642 asian high to a 0.5650 session high, then gave back about 19 pips in one bar around Waller's speech. Price is compressing near 0.5632 under the ema20 (0.56344) and ema50 (0.56329), with lower highs above the 0.5628 london low into US CPI. RSI(14) sits at 45.9 and ATR(14) has eased to 3.9 pips.
Support: 0.56279, 0.56179
Resistance: 0.56344, 0.56425, 0.56495
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~2h) is the catalyst for this compression. A soft core print brings the 0.5642 asian high and the 0.5650 session high back into view.
M15 close below the 0.5628 london low extends the rejection toward the 0.5618 rollover low.
M15 close back above the ema20 at 0.5634 and the lower-highs line would undo the post-rejection fade.
London cleared the Asian high at 0.56425 and printed a session high at 0.56495. The 09:00 UTC bar, during Waller's speech, then fell about 16 pips and turned the move into a false break. Since then price has printed lower highs between the 0.56279 London low and ema20 at 0.56346, below both EMAs with RSI(14) at 44.9 and ATR at 4.1 pips, as the market waits on US CPI.
Support: 0.56279, 0.56262
Resistance: 0.56346, 0.56425, 0.56495
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (ADP at 13:15) could materially shift this read
M15 close above ema20 at 0.56346 and the lower-highs line weakens the pullback read
Failure to hold the 0.56279 London low and 0.56262 Asian low opens the full Asian range to the downside
Reclaim of the 0.56425 Asian high needed before the 0.56495 session high comes back into view
11:02 UTC
Intraday pullback inside Asian range · RSI 44 · price 0.56329
London false break of Asian high, lower highs since.
London pushed through the Asian high at 0.5643 to a session high of 0.56495. The move then reversed in a 15-pip drop when Waller's remarks were scheduled, landing back inside the Asian range at the 0.5628 london low. Price is now pinned at the ema50 (0.56329) and below the ema20 (0.56348), RSI 44, ATR 4.3 pips, holding between the 61.8% and 78.6% retracement of the asian low-to-session high leg.
Support: 0.56279, 0.56262
Resistance: 0.56348, 0.56425, 0.56495
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~2.5h) and ADP at 13:15 could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 0.5626 asian low breaks the Asian range to the downside
Reclaim of the ema20 at 0.5635, then the 0.5643 asian high, would undo the false break
Session high at 0.56495 sits just under the 0.5650-0.5660 resistance zone flagged in the macro read
10:47 UTC
Intraday pullback after a failed London push · RSI 42 · price 0.56315
False break above the Asian range, back inside it; lower highs since 09:00 UTC.
London lifted price above the 0.5626–0.5643 Asian range to a 0.5650 session high. Waller's 09:00 UTC remarks then knocked about 16 pips off, leaving a false break and returning price below the ema50 (0.5633) and ema20 (0.5635). RSI(14) has cooled from 66 to 42 with ATR(14) at 4.5 pips. The London low at 0.5628 is holding so far, about 78.6% back into the overnight leg.
Support: 0.56279, 0.56262, 0.56179
Resistance: 0.5633, 0.56352, 0.56495
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5628 london low and the 0.5626 asian low exposes the 0.5618 spike low from the thin rollover hour
Recovery above the ema50/ema20 at 0.5633–0.5635 would neutralise the post-Waller fade; the 0.5650 session high is the next cap
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~2.7h), preceded by ADP 4-week average at 13:15, could materially shift this read
10:31 UTC
Intraday pullback after failed London push · RSI 43 · price 0.56308
Lower highs below ema20/ema50 since 09:00 UTC rejection, holding above Asian low.
London broke above the 0.5626–0.5643 Asian range to a 0.56495 session high, close to the 0.5640–0.5645 resistance zone. A 15-pip drop on the 09:00 UTC bar, during Waller's speech, put price back inside the Asian range. Since then price has made lower highs below the ema50 and ema20, with RSI(14) at 42.6 and ATR(14) at 4.7 pips.
Support: 0.56279, 0.56262
Resistance: 0.56331, 0.56357, 0.56495
What it said to watch
A break below the 0.56279 london low and the 0.56262 asian low would extend the lower-low sequence
A reclaim of the ema50 at 0.56331 and the ema20 at 0.56357 would break the lower highs and neutralise the pullback read
The session high at 0.56495 caps the zone; a close above it would turn the false break into a breakout
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~3h, core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; ADP 4-week average at 13:15
10:16 UTC
Intraday pullback after failed London push · RSI 39 · price 0.56292
False break above Asian high, lower high at 0.5650, price back near Asian range floor.
London lifted NZDUSD through the Asian high to a session high at 0.5650. The move was rejected sharply in the 09:00 UTC bar as Fed's Waller spoke, unwinding the move to 0.5628, below the ema20 (0.56362) and ema50 (0.56331), with RSI(14) at 39 and ATR expanding to 4.8 pips from about 3.8. Price now sits just above the Asian low at 0.5626, and the 0.5640–0.5650 area has capped the rally, in line with the resistance cited in the digest.
Support: 0.56262, 0.56179
Resistance: 0.56331, 0.56362, 0.56495
What it said to watch
A close below the Asian low at 0.5626 exposes the overnight low at 0.5618
Recovery back above the ema50 and ema20 (0.5633–0.5636) would neutralise the rejection read
Session high at 0.5650 remains the cap; a close above it negates the false break
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
10:03 UTC
Pullback after failed London push, momentum soft · RSI 41 · price 0.56327
False break above Asian high, back inside Asian range.
London lifted NZDUSD through the Asian high at 0.56425 to a session high of 0.56495, testing the 0.5640-0.5645 resistance zone. A 16-pip bar around Waller's speech produced a rejection back into the Asian range, and price now sits below the ema20 (0.56369) and ema50 (0.56333). It has retraced about 72% of the Asia-London leg; RSI(14) 41 and ATR(14) 4.8 pips, up from about 3.8.
Support: 0.56294, 0.56262
Resistance: 0.56333, 0.56425, 0.56495
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.56294 london low exposes the 0.56262 asian low
Reclaiming the ema50 at 0.56333 and the asian high at 0.56425 would negate the false break
Session high 0.56495 caps the move; US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~3.5h) could materially shift this read
London false break of Asian range high, back near range low.
London lifted price through the Asian range high to a session high at 0.5650, then the 09:00 UTC bar during Waller's speech gave back 16 pips to 0.5631. That move put price back inside the range, below the ema20 (0.5638) and ema50 (0.5633), sitting on the Asian low near the 61.8% fib of the swing low-session high leg. RSI(14) has rolled over from 66 to 43, and ATR(14) has expanded to 4.8 pips.
Support: 0.56295, 0.56179
Resistance: 0.56334, 0.56376, 0.56495
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.5630 asian low opens the 0.5618 swing low
A reclaim of the ema20 at 0.5638 would neutralise the false break read, with 0.5650 session high the next cap
ADP at 13:15 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
False break above Asian range, back inside it at ema50.
London broke the Asian high at 0.5643 and set a session high at 0.5650. The 09:00 UTC bar, which coincided with Waller's speech, then dropped about 16 pips back inside the Asian range, leaving a false break and rejection in the 0.5640-0.5645 zone. Price is sitting on the ema50 (0.5634), below the ema20 (0.5638), with the rising lows from the Asian low broken. RSI(14) has cooled to 46 from 66, ATR has widened to 4.9 pips, and the move has retraced roughly 65% of the leg from the Asian low.
Support: 0.56335, 0.56305, 0.56262
Resistance: 0.56381, 0.56425, 0.56495
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.56305 Waller low exposes the 0.5626 Asian low.
A reclaim of the ema20, then a close back above the 0.5643 Asian high, would negate the false break and put the 0.5650 session high back in focus.
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (headline m/m f/c 0.3%, core 0.2%) is likely to break the current range either way.
ADP 4-week average at 13:15 UTC may add volatility ahead of CPI.
False break above Asian high, back inside Asian range.
London pushed through the Asian high at 0.5642 to a london high of 0.56495, close to the 0.5640-0.5645 cap flagged into US CPI. The 09:00 UTC bar around Waller's remarks then dropped ~16 pips to 0.56305, erasing most of the London leg and putting price back inside the Asian range. Price now sits between the ema20 (0.56385) and the ema50 (0.56334), RSI(14) is back to 44.6 from 66, and ATR(14) has expanded to 4.8 pips from about 3.7.
Support: 0.56334, 0.56295, 0.56179
Resistance: 0.56385, 0.56425, 0.56495
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the ema20 and the 0.56425 Asian high would neutralise the false-break read
Failure to hold the ema50 and the 0.56295 asian low opens the 0.56179 rollover low
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core m/m f/c 0.2%) can materially shift this read; a print that clears the 0.56495 london high would mark a break of the 0.5640-0.5645 cap
09:02 UTC
Intraday uptrend, rejected at session high · RSI 66 · price 0.56359
Higher lows since 0.5602; false break above asian high.
London extended the election-relief, soft-USD bid through the asian high to a 0.56495 session high, RSI(14) peaking at 66.3. The 09:00 UTC bar, opening into Waller's speech, has unwound the move with a ~10-pip drop back under the asian high and the 0.5640-0.5645 cap. Price is now testing the rising lows line ahead of the ema50 at 0.56334, with range more than double the 4-pip ATR.
Support: 0.56334, 0.56295, 0.56179
Resistance: 0.5639, 0.56425, 0.56495
What it said to watch
M15 close below the ema50 at 0.56334 and the rising lows line breaks the higher-low chain, exposing the asian low at 0.56295
Recovery back above the asian high at 0.56425 negates the false break read and puts the session high at 0.56495 back in play
Reclaiming the ema20 near 0.5639 also returns price above the 61.8% of the London leg
Waller remarks now and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; rollover low at 0.56179 is the deeper intraday pivot
08:46 UTC
Uptrend, early London breakout · RSI 65 · price 0.56465
Higher lows since rollover dip; Asian range high broken.
London cleared the Asian high at 0.5642 and pushed through the 0.5640-0.5645 cap as USD stays heavy on Iran-deal hopes. Higher lows have held since the rollover dip to 0.5618, and price sits above the ema20 at 0.5638 and the ema50 at 0.5633, with RSI(14) at 64.8 and not stretched. The 0.5650 round number and last week's high near 0.5660 are the next caps overhead.
Support: 0.56425, 0.56383, 0.56332
Resistance: 0.5650, 0.5660
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the asian high at 0.5642 would turn the breakout into a false break
A break of the higher-lows line, then the london low at 0.5633, would end the intraday uptrend read
Waller speaks in 14 min; US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Reaction at the 0.5650 round number and at last week's high near 0.5660
08:31 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 63 · price 0.5645
Higher lows since Asia, London break of Asian high.
London pushed through the Asian high at 0.5642 to a session high at 0.5645. NZD's election-relief rebound and a heavy USD into CPI are pressing this 0.5640-0.5645 cap. Higher lows from 0.5626 hold on the trendline, with price above a rising ema20 at 0.5638; RSI 63, ATR 4 pips.
Support: 0.56425, 0.56376, 0.56332
Resistance: 0.5645, 0.5650, 0.5660
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5642 Asian high marks the breakout as a false break
A close above the 0.5650 round number opens the path to last week's high near 0.5660
Loss of the 0.5633 swing low and the higher-low trendline breaks the intraday uptrend
Fed's Waller speaks at 09:00 UTC, about 30 minutes out
US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
08:16 UTC
Grinding higher, stalling at the cap · RSI 57 · price 0.56385
Higher lows from 0.5618, double test of 0.5643 session high.
Early London pushed back into the Asian high and was rejected at the 0.5643 session high, a second test of the 0.5640-0.5645 cap the NZD digest flags as traders hold back ahead of US CPI. RSI(14) cooled to 56.6 from 62.3. Price holds above the ema20 at 0.5637, with the higher-low trendline and the london low at 0.5633 underneath. That low also marks the 38.2% retracement of the overnight move from 0.5618.
Support: 0.56369, 0.56332, 0.56295
Resistance: 0.56426, 0.5645
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5643 session high breaks the Asian-range cap and brings the 0.5645 psych level into play
Failure to hold the 0.5633 london low and the higher-low trendline exposes the 0.5630 asian low
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC (44 min) and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; ATR(14) sits at 3.8 pips
08:02 UTC
Uptrend, pressing session high · RSI 61 · price 0.56421
Higher lows into a flat Asian high at 0.5643.
NZD/USD is retesting the 0.5643 Asian high at the London open, after a chain of higher lows from the 0.5630 pullback low. The higher low at 0.5633 also marks the 38.2% retracement of the rally from 0.5618. Price holds above the ema20 at 0.5637, RSI(14) is at 60.9 and ATR is compressing to 3.8 pips as the USD stays capped ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.56367, 0.56332, 0.56295
Resistance: 0.56426, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5643 asian high opens the 0.5650 round number
Break of the rising trendline and the 0.5633 higher low shifts focus to the 0.5630 pullback low
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC, in under an hour, could jolt the ema20 hold
US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
07:46 UTC
Grinding higher inside Asian range · RSI 62 · price 0.56421
Higher lows from 0.5630, testing Asian high.
Into London open, price is back at the Asian high of 0.56425. A higher-low chain from the 0.56295 Asian low has carried it above the ema20 at 0.56362 and the EMA50. RSI(14) is at 62.3 and ATR(14) has compressed to 3.9 pips, as NZD holds its election-relief bid and USD steadies ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.56362, 0.56332, 0.56295
Resistance: 0.56425, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56425 Asian high breaks the overnight range, with the 0.5650 round number next overhead
Loss of the ema20 and then the 0.56332 higher low breaks the rising-low chain and puts the 0.56295 Asian low back in play
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC, about 73 min out, could shift USD tone before London settles
US CPI at 13:30 UTC: ATR at 3.9 pips is likely to expand sharply around the release
NZD is holding Monday's election-relief bid. The Asia session has printed a chain of rising lows from the 0.5630 swing low to the 0.5633 higher low, all capped by the 0.5642 Asia high, with price now pressing that cap into London open. Price sits above a flattening ema20 (0.5636) and the ema50, RSI(14) is 58 and ATR(14) has compressed to 3.7 pips from 4.8, which keeps the pair range-bound ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.56356, 0.56332, 0.56295
Resistance: 0.56425, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5642 Asia high breaks the compression and puts the 0.5650 round number in play
Close below the 0.5633 higher low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 0.5630 swing low near the ema50
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC could jolt the Asian range
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) is the main risk to this read; a soft print carries the larger NZD move per the digest
Tight Asian range 0.5626–0.5643, lower high at 0.5640 inside it.
Late in the Asia session NZDUSD is coiling inside a 0.5626–0.5643 Asian range, holding Monday's election-relief rally while a firm USD caps it ahead of US CPI. Price sits on the flattening ema20 and above the rising ema50 at 0.5631, RSI(14) is neutral at 52 and ATR(14) has compressed to 3.6 pips. The 05:15 UTC lower high at 0.5640 sits just under the asian high.
Support: 0.56305, 0.56262
Resistance: 0.56404, 0.56425
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5640 lower high and the 0.5643 asian high breaks the Asian range to the upside
Loss of the ema50 at 0.5631 and then the 0.5626 asian low, which lines up with the 38.2% NY rally fib, opens a deeper retrace of Monday's move
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC, shortly after London open, could break the compression
US CPI at 13:30 UTC is the main risk to this range read, and a soft core print is the larger catalyst
Asian range 0.5630–0.5642, lower highs vs rising lows.
NZD is holding Monday's election-relief bounce. The Asian range of 0.5630–0.5642 is coiling into the London open, with the asian high at 0.56425, a lower high at 0.56404 and rising lows up to the 0.56332 swing low. Price sits fractionally below a flat EMA20 (0.56352) and above the EMA50 (0.56303). RSI(14) is neutral at 50 and ATR(14) has compressed to 3.6 pips from 4.9.
Support: 0.56332, 0.56295, 0.56179
Resistance: 0.56404, 0.56425
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.56425 asian high breaks the compression to the upside; failure at the 0.56404 lower high keeps the lower highs line in play
Loss of the 0.56332 swing low and the rising lows line exposes the 0.56295 asian low and EMA50; below that, the 0.56179 spike low from the rollover
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC is the first USD catalyst of the London session
US CPI at 13:30 UTC is the main risk and could materially shift this read; the digest flags a soft print as the larger mover
06:47 UTC
Sideways after Monday's NY rally, compressing · RSI 54 · price 0.5636
Late-Asia contraction: lower high under Asia high, higher low above swing low.
Monday's NY rally from 0.5602 is holding through Asia inside a tightening band. A lower high at 0.5640 sits under the 0.5643 Asia high and a higher low at 0.5634 sits above the 0.5630 swing low, while ATR(14) has compressed from 5.0 to 3.6 pips. Price rests on the ema20 with RSI(14) at 54, as NZD's election-relief bid meets a firm USD ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.56353, 0.56335, 0.56295
Resistance: 0.56404, 0.56425, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5643 Asia high breaks the compression and exposes the 0.5650 psych level
Loss of the 0.5634 higher low, then the 0.5630 swing low, breaks the Asian rising lows
Fed Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:31 UTC
Sideways after Monday's rally, range tightening · RSI 53 · price 0.56361
Asian range 0.56295–0.56425, lower high vs higher low compressing.
NZD is holding Monday's election-relief gains inside a tight Asian range of 0.56295–0.56425. Price is compressing between the 0.56404 lower high and the 0.56311 higher low, with ATR(14) easing from 5.2 to 3.7 pips. Price sits just above the ema20 at 0.56352 and RSI(14) is neutral at 52.8 as the market waits on US CPI.
Support: 0.56352, 0.56311, 0.56295
Resistance: 0.56404, 0.56425
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56425 asian high breaks the range to the upside
Failure to hold the 0.56311 higher low and the 0.56295 asian low turns the structure into a range break lower
Losing the ema20 at 0.56352 puts the higher low back in play
Fed Waller at 09:00 UTC is an early catalyst for a break of the lower high / higher low compression
US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows vs lower highs below the 0.5642 Asian high, tightening.
Monday's election-relief bid carried NZDUSD from the 0.5602 NY low to a 0.5642 Asian high, and late Asia has since compressed into higher lows (0.5630, 0.5631, 0.5634) against a 0.5640 lower high. Price sits just above the ema20 with RSI(14) at 55 and ATR(14) contracting to 3.8 pips, a tight coil going into London open with US CPI later today.
Support: 0.56352, 0.56311, 0.56262
Resistance: 0.56404, 0.56425
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5642 Asian high breaks the compression to the upside
Failure to hold the 0.5631 higher low and ema20 exposes the 0.5626 Asian low
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC could shift the read before London is established
US October CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a soft core print carries more room to move given crowded Fed hike pricing
06:03 UTC
Uptrend, momentum stalling in Asia · RSI 54 · price 0.56362
Rising lows under a lower high, compressing inside the Asian range.
Monday's election-relief bid lifted NZD from 0.5588 to the 0.56425 Asian high. Asia has since compressed between the 0.56295 Asian low and that high: a rising-lows line runs through 0.56311 and a lower high sits at 0.56404. Price is holding just above ema20 (0.5635) with RSI(14) at 54 and ATR(14) contracting to 3.7 pips, roughly 1.5 hours before London open.
Support: 0.5635, 0.56311, 0.56295
Resistance: 0.56404, 0.56425, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56425 Asian high breaks the compression, with the 0.5650 round number next
Loss of the 0.56311 higher low and the 0.56295 Asian low breaks the rising-lows line and the Asia structure
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC, early London, could set direction ahead of the 13:30 UTC US CPI
05:32 UTC
Uptrend, pressing Asian high · RSI 62 · price 0.56392
Higher lows since 0.5626 in Asia, testing 0.56425 high.
Monday's election-relief rally ran from the 0.5588 London low through the 0.56378 NY high. Asia then printed a 0.56425 Asian high and a chain of rising lows (0.5626, 0.5630, 0.5631). Price is now retesting that high early in the session with RSI(14) near 62 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 0.56378, 0.56311, 0.56262
Resistance: 0.56425, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56425 Asian high opens the 0.5650 round number, the cap flagged in the macro read
Failure to hold the 0.5631 higher low breaks the rising lows chain and exposes the 0.5626 Asian low
Slipping back under the 0.56378 NY high would mark another rejection at the Asian high
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a soft core print has more room to lift the pair
05:16 UTC
Up from London low, now consolidating · RSI 55 · price 0.56383
Asian range 0.5626–0.5643, higher lows since early Asia.
Monday's election-relief rally from the 0.5588 London low has stalled into a 0.5626–0.5643 Asian range, with price in the upper half and a rising-lows trendline near 0.5633 still intact. The Asian high at 0.5643 is capping. RSI(14) is neutral near 55 and ATR(14) is about 3 pips as the pair compresses ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.56295, 0.56262
Resistance: 0.56425, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5643 Asian high opens the 0.5650 round number
Break of the rising-lows trendline and the 0.5630 swing low puts the 0.5626 Asian low back in play
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:03 UTC
Uptrend, compressing below Asia high · RSI 55 · price 0.56387
Higher lows inside 0.5626–0.5643 Asian range.
The election-relief leg from the 0.5602 NY low has stalled into an Asian range of 0.5626–0.5643. Higher lows at 0.5630 and 0.5631 are pressing price back toward the Asian high on rising Asia higher lows. RSI(14) sits near 55 and ATR is about 3.4 pips, so ranges are compressed ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.56311, 0.56262, 0.56179
Resistance: 0.56425, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5643 Asian high breaks the range and brings the 0.5650 round number into view
Close below the 0.5631 higher low breaks the Asia higher lows trendline. Next is the 0.5626 Asian low, which lines up with the 38.2% of the rally from the NY low, then the 0.5618 rollover low
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
04:32 UTC
Uptrend, pausing in late Asia · RSI 50 · price 0.56345
Higher lows from 0.5588; Asian range 0.5626–0.5642, price mid-range.
The rally from Monday's 0.5588 London-open low, driven by NZ election relief and a softer USD, printed a fresh Asian high at 0.5642. The pullback held the 0.5630 pullback low near the 23.6% fib, and price is now compressing around 0.5634 with RSI(14) at 50, capped near the 0.5638 NY high.
Support: 0.56295, 0.56262
Resistance: 0.56378, 0.56425, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5642 Asian high reopens the 0.5650 round number
Failure to hold the 0.5630 pullback low and the 0.5626 Asian low breaks the higher-low chain
London open in ~2.5h is likely to set the direction out of the Asian range
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 0.5602; tight range below session high.
Monday's NY-session rally from 0.5602 extended to a 0.5643 session high early in Asia on NZD election relief and a softer USD. Price has since compressed between the 0.5630 intraday low and a 0.5638 lower high, with the 0.5626 asia low sitting at the 38.2% retracement of the rally. RSI(14) is neutral near 54 and ATR(14) is about 4 pips into late Asia.
Support: 0.5630, 0.56262, 0.56179
Resistance: 0.56375, 0.56425, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5630 intraday low exposes the 0.5626 asia low and 38.2% rally fib
Close above the 0.5638 lower high and the 0.5643 session high ends the compression, with the 0.5650 round number next
Loss of the 0.5618 rollover low breaks the higher-low chain from 0.5602
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
04:03 UTC
Uptrend, stalling in Asia · RSI 51 · price 0.56325
Higher highs from 0.5588 to 0.5643; Asia session range 0.5626–0.5643 with lower highs since 01:30 UTC.
Monday's climb from 0.5588 to 0.5643 rode the NZ election-relief bid and a softer USD. The Asia session has since stalled, printing lower highs near 0.5638 under the 0.5643 session high. Price now sits on the 61.8% of the Asia leg up from the 0.5626 range floor, with RSI(14) neutral near 51 and ATR around 4 pips ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.56295, 0.56262
Resistance: 0.56375, 0.56425
What it said to watch
Break of the 0.5630 swing low exposes the 0.5626 range floor; losing it ends the higher-low sequence
M15 close above the 0.5638 lower highs reopens the 0.5643 session high
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:46 UTC
Uptrend, pausing below Asian high · RSI 50 · price 0.56334
Higher lows intact; Asia consolidating 0.5630–0.5643.
Steady climb from 0.5584 through London and NY extended on a late-NY jump as USD softened on Iran-talk optimism and lower yields. Asia set a session high at 0.5643 and was rejected. Price is now chopping between the prior NY high at 0.5638 and the 0.5630 swing low, sitting in the 50–61.8% fib of the Asian leg, with RSI(14) flat near 50.
Support: 0.56295, 0.56262
Resistance: 0.56378, 0.56425
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5626 Asian low breaks the higher-low sequence
Close above the 0.5643 Asian high resumes the uptrend leg
Hold of 0.5630 swing low keeps price inside the Asian range
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain intact; Asian push above NY high faded back inside.
Higher lows from Monday's London dip at 0.5588 carried NZD/USD to an Asia high at 0.56425 on the election-relief bid. Price met rejection there, slipped back under Monday's NY high at 0.56378 and is coiling mid-Asian range with RSI(14) neutral near 55. The swing low at 0.56295 sits above the fib 38.2 (0.56265) and the Asian low at 0.56173, which keeps the rising trendline intact.
Support: 0.56295, 0.56265, 0.56173
Resistance: 0.56378, 0.56425
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the NY high at 0.56378 reopens the Asia high at 0.56425
Loss of the 0.56295 swing low and the fib 38.2 near 0.56265 breaks the higher-low chain
A break of the rising trendline and the 0.56173 Asian low negates the intraday uptrend
Fed Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:16 UTC
Uptrend, pausing below Asia high · RSI 54 · price 0.56367
Higher lows from 0.5618, range 0.5630–0.5642.
Monday's election-relief grind carried into a 0.56425 Asia high. Price is now consolidating just under the 0.56378 ny high, after the pullback held the 0.56295 swing low, near the 50% fib of the rollover low-to-Asia high leg. Higher lows from the 0.56179 rollover low remain intact. RSI(14) is neutral at 54 ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.56295, 0.56262, 0.56179
Resistance: 0.56378, 0.56425
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.56425 asia high extends the higher-high chain
Break below the 0.56295 swing low and 0.56262 asia low cuts the rising trendline and turns the read to range
Loss of the 0.56179 rollover low invalidates the intraday uptrend
Fed Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
The rally from 0.5582 ran through NY and the Asian session to a session high at 0.5643, where a rejection pulled price back to a swing low at 0.5630. That low sits near the 50% retrace of the Asian leg from 0.5618. Price holds above EMA20/50 with ATR near 4.6 pips as NZD sits on its election-relief gains ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.56295, 0.56262, 0.56179
Resistance: 0.56425, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5630 swing low and the 0.5626 higher low breaks the HH/HL chain and brings rising support near 0.5627 into play
Rollover low at 0.5618 marks the base of the Asian session range; losing it unwinds the Asian leg
Close above the 0.5643 session high reopens the 0.5650 round number
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows intact; Asia spike to 0.5643 rejected, price fading into 0.5626-0.5638.
The election-relief bid carried NZD/USD through a higher-low chain from 0.5602 to an Asia session high at 0.5643. That spike was rejected and price is back at 0.5632, just under the EMA20 with RSI(14) near 47. The asian low at 0.5626 lines up with rising support and the 38.2% fib of the NY-Asia leg, while the prior high at 0.5638 caps the bounce.
Support: 0.56262, 0.56179
Resistance: 0.56378, 0.56425
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5626 asian low breaks rising support and the higher-low chain, exposing the 0.5618 swing low and the 50% fib near 0.5622
Close back above the 0.5638 prior high reopens the 0.5643 session high
London open may extend or reverse the Asia session range
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:32 UTC
Uptrend, pausing below Asian high · RSI 54 · price 0.56342
Higher lows from 0.5602, consolidating under 0.5642.
The NZ election-relief bid carried the pair through Monday's NY high at 0.5638 to a 0.5642 Asian high, with lows rising from 0.5602 through the 0.5618 Asian low and the 0.5626 swing low, which sits on the 38.2% fib. Mid-Asia, price is holding ~8 pips off the top, above the 0.5632 pullback low and on the rising trendline, with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 0.56321, 0.56262, 0.56179
Resistance: 0.56378, 0.56425, 0.5650
What it said to watch
A break of the 0.5632 pullback low and the rising trendline exposes the 0.5626 swing low and 38.2% fib.
Loss of the 0.5618 Asian low breaks the higher-low chain.
Acceptance above the 0.5642 Asian high opens the 0.5650 round number, the lower edge of the 0.5650-0.5660 cap.
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read.
HH/HL chain intact; Asia pullback after 0.5642 high.
Monday's election-relief bid carried into the Asia session. A higher low at 0.5626 held above the 0.5618 rollover low and fed a push to an Asia high at 0.5642, which saw rejection. Price has eased back through the 0.5638 NY high to the 38.2% fib of that leg, sitting on EMA20 with RSI(14) cooled to ~53.
Support: 0.56265, 0.56179
Resistance: 0.56378, 0.56425, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5626 higher low and rising trendline breaks the HH/HL chain
Loss of the 0.5618 rollover low puts the Asia range in reverse
Close back above 0.5638 ny high reopens the 0.5642 asia high, then the 0.5650 round number
Waller 09:00 UTC and US CPI 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:04 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading in Asia · RSI 55 · price 0.56347
Higher lows since Asia gap; pullback from 0.5642 session high.
The NZD election-relief bid carried the pair from 0.5579 to the 0.5637 prior high through Monday's London and NY sessions. Asia opened with a gap lower to an asian low of 0.5617, then built higher lows at the 0.5626 swing low. A push to a 0.5642 session high met rejection, and price is back below the prior high, with RSI(14) cooling to the mid-50s.
Support: 0.56262, 0.56166
Resistance: 0.56373, 0.56424
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5642 session high resumes the higher-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.5626 swing low (61.8% fib) breaks the Asia higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.5617 asian low
Waller at 09:00 UTC, then US CPI at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
01:32 UTC
Uptrend, fresh high in early Asia · RSI 62 · price 0.56413
HH/HL chain; breakout above the 0.5637 prior high.
Early Asia session printed a new session high at 0.5641. It cleared the 0.5636–0.5637 prior high that capped late NY and the first Asian hours, extending the higher-low chain off Monday's 0.5602 NY low as NZD election relief and a softer USD carry through. The 00:30 dip held the 0.5626 swing low near the 61.8% fib and the rising trendline from the NY low. RSI(14) is near 62, not stretched.
Support: 0.56373, 0.56262, 0.56166
Resistance: 0.56413, 0.5650
What it said to watch
A close back below the 0.5637 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 0.5626 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the rising trendline; the rollover low at 0.5617 is the deeper reference
The 0.5650 round number is the next overhead reference above the session high
Fed Waller at 09:00 UTC and US October CPI at 13:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read
Higher lows intact; tight Asia range under 0.5637.
Monday's broad USD slide lifted the pair from the 0.5602 NY low to a 0.5637 Monday high late in NY. The thin rollover dip to 0.5617 held near the 61.8% of the NY leg fib and was fully reclaimed. Tuesday Asia is compressing between the 0.5626 swing low and 0.5636, with RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 0.56262, 0.56166, 0.56017
Resistance: 0.56373, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5637 Monday high opens the 0.5650 round number
Loss of the 0.5626 swing low puts the rollover low at 0.5617 and the rising trendline back in play
Break below the 0.5602 NY low invalidates the higher-low sequence
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC, ahead of US CPI at 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from 0.5602, lower high at 0.5636 in Asia.
The NY rally lifted NZDUSD from the 0.5602 NY low to a 0.5637 session high, with soft USD adding to the NZD election-relief bid. The rollover low at 0.5617 recovered quickly, but early Asia stalled at 0.5636 and pulled back to a 0.5626 pullback low. RSI(14) is neutral near 49.
Support: 0.5626, 0.5617, 0.5602
Resistance: 0.5637, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5637 session high resumes the HH chain toward the 0.5650 round number
Failure to hold 0.5626 pullback low exposes 0.5617 rollover low and the 38.2–50% zone of the NY rally fib
Break below 0.5602 NY low would end the intraday uptrend read
Fed's Waller 09:00 UTC and US CPI 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain since London; twin highs near 0.5637 in early Asia.
NZD election relief and a softer USD carried the pair from 0.5569 to a 0.5637 session high in late NY. The thin rollover sweep to 0.5617, near the 61.8% of the rally off the NY low, was bought back to 0.5636. Early Asia session is now slipping back under the ema20 near 0.5630 with RSI(14) at 46, leaving a possible double top against the session high.
Support: 0.56166, 0.56017
Resistance: 0.5630, 0.56373
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5617 sweep low confirms the double top and exposes the NY low at 0.5602
Close back above the 0.5637 session high resumes the higher-high chain
Break of the rising NY-low trendline (~0.5621) would end the HL sequence
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Final NZ election count headlines remain a two-way NZD risk
Higher lows from NY low; tight range under 0.5637 high.
Monday's election-relief bid and a softer USD carried NZDUSD from 0.5564 to a 0.5637 swing high late in NY, and the rollover dip to 0.5617 held near the 61.8% retracement. Early Asia has recovered into a 0.5629–0.5636 consolidation just under the swing high, with RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 0.56285, 0.56166, 0.56017
Resistance: 0.56373, 0.5640
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5637 swing high opens the 0.5640 round number
Loss of the 0.5629 range floor exposes the 0.5617 rollover low
Break below 0.5602 NY low invalidates the higher-low chain
US CPI 13:30 UTC and Waller at 09:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain, tight consolidation under 0.5637.
Election relief and a softer dollar drove a higher-low chain from 0.5588 to a 0.5637 session high late in NY. Price has been compressing between the 0.5629 range floor and 0.5636 into early Asia, and the illiquid rollover spike to 0.5617, near the 61.8% fib and rising support, reversed within a bar, leaving the 0.5625 breakout base intact.
Support: 0.5629, 0.5625, 0.5617
Resistance: 0.5637, 0.5650
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5637 session high extends the higher-high chain toward the 0.5650 psych level
Close below the 0.5625 breakout base breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.5617 rollover low
Loss of rising support near 0.5617 would end the intraday uptrend read
US CPI at 13:30 UTC, with Waller at 09:00 UTC beforehand, could materially shift this read
00:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing under day high · RSI 53 · price 0.56343
Higher lows since London open; rollover dip reclaimed, price pinned near 0.5634.
Election relief and a softer USD (DXY below 102.00) carried NZD out of the Asian range at 0.5564–0.5602, through London and up a late-NY leg to a 0.5637 day high. The thin rollover dip to 0.5617 tagged the 61.8% of the NY leg fib and the rising support from the London low. It was reclaimed within two bars. Early Asia is holding just under the day high above the 0.5628 late NY low, with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 0.56285, 0.56166, 0.56017
Resistance: 0.56373, 0.5650
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.5637 day high extends the higher-high chain toward the 0.5650 psych level
Loss of the 0.5628 late NY low, then the 0.5617 rollover low, breaks the higher-low sequence and the rising support, exposing the 0.5602 NY low
Waller (09:00 UTC) and US CPI (13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read