22:05 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs intact · RSI 40 · price 0.55609
LH/LL chain from late-August top; post-low bounce faded.
A lower-high/lower-low chain has held since the 0.5988 late-August top. Price has stayed below a falling EMA(50), and the October rebound stalled at the 0.5710 oct high, close to the 38.2% retracement of the Aug-Nov decline. Monday's election bounce off the 0.5527 swing low met rejection just under 0.5650, and hot US CPI on Tuesday unwound it, leaving the latest close at 0.5561, back below the ema20 at 0.5621. RSI at 40 with ATR expanding to 52 pips points to widening daily ranges rather than an oversold extreme.
Support: 0.55274, 0.5500
Resistance: 0.56207, 0.56719, 0.57102
What it said to watch
- A daily close below the 0.5527 swing low extends the lower-low sequence to fresh 19-month lows, with the 0.5500 round number next
- A daily close back above the ema20 at 0.5621 and the 0.5672 ema50 would stall the downtrend read
- Only a close above the 0.5710 oct high breaks the lower-high chain of the Aug-Nov decline
- Thursday's Fed speakers and Business NZ PMI, then Friday's US PPI, could materially shift this read
- RBNZ Inflation Expectations on Tue Nov 17 is the key NZD-side risk next week