Lower highs at 0.5710, 0.5658 and 0.5650, with lower lows down to the 0.5527 swing low, define the downtrend. The rebound after payrolls retraced over 90% of the payrolls-leg drop, then met rejection just under the prior lower high, and hot US CPI turned it lower. Price sits below the ema20 (0.5595) and ema50 (0.5607), which slope lower with the ema20 under the ema50, while ATR(14) easing to 19.1 pips points to a grinding slide rather than an accelerating one.
Support: 0.5540, 0.55274
Resistance: 0.55946, 0.5607, 0.56495
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the ema50 at 0.5607 would challenge the selling momentum
A close above the 0.5650 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 0.5540 round number, then the 0.5527 swing low, extends the lower-low structure
Business NZ PMI Thu 21:30 UTC is the domestic test for NZD
Fed speakers Thu and US core PPI Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.5708; rebound to 0.5650 rejected, retracing toward 0.5527 swing low.
NZDUSD has printed lower highs since the 0.5708 late-October peak. Last week the 0.5580 floor gave way on the strong US payrolls beat, down to the 0.5527 swing low. This week's rebound stalled at a 0.5650 lower high, and the hot US CPI print unwound most of it. Price now sits below both the ema20 (0.5598) and the ema50 (0.5609), with the ema20 still under the ema50. It is trading between the 61.8% and fib 78.6 levels of the rebound fib, RSI has rolled over from 60 to 37.5, and ATR is holding near 20 pips with no expansion yet.
Support: 0.5554, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.5598, 0.5609, 0.5650
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5527 swing low extends the lower-low sequence to fresh 19-month lows
Fib 78.6 at 0.5554 is the last retracement level of the rebound fib before the swing low
H4 close back above the ema20 / ema50 band at 0.5598-0.5609 would stall the decline
H4 close above the 0.5650 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline structure
Business NZ PMI Thu 21:30 UTC and US core PPI Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Fed speakers Thu also in play
Lower highs and lower lows; post-election bounce retraced to the 61.8% fib.
Swing highs at 0.5710, 0.5658 and 0.5650 form a lower-high sequence, and the 0.5527 swing low after the strong US payrolls set a fresh lower low. The post-election bounce met rejection at the 0.5650 lower high. The hot US CPI print then pushed price back below the ema20 (0.5602) and ema50 (0.5611), and EMA20 never crossed above EMA50. Price is now testing the 61.8% fib of the 0.5527–0.5650 bounce near 0.5574, with RSI at 40.4 and ATR(14) easing from 22 to 20.6 pips.
Support: 0.5574, 0.55274
Resistance: 0.56018, 0.56107, 0.56495
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 61.8% fib at 0.5574 exposes the 0.5527 swing low
Recovery back above the ema20 at 0.5602 and ema50 at 0.5611 would stall the downtrend read; only a break of the 0.5650 lower high alters swing structure
Business NZ PMI (Thu 21:30 UTC) and US core PPI (Fri 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.5710; CPI drop gave back half the 0.5527 rebound.
Lower highs at 0.5710, 0.5658 and 0.5650 define the three-week downtrend, and the rebound from the 0.5527 window low met rejection at that lower high before the hot US CPI print dragged price back to the 0.5585 cpi low, just under the 50% level of the rebound fib. Price sits below both the ema20 (0.5605) and ema50 (0.5612), with EMA20 still under EMA50 and no cross. ATR(14) is flat near 20 pips, so the move is grinding rather than expanding, with the 0.5579 swing low the next structural floor.
Support: 0.55849, 0.55789, 0.55274
Resistance: 0.56046, 0.56122, 0.56495
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.5579 swing low exposes the 0.5527 window low and extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the ema20 and ema50 at 0.5605-0.5612, then a close above the 0.5650 lower high, breaks the lower-highs trendline
Business NZ PMI Thu 21:30 UTC and Thursday Fedspeak could materially shift this read
US core PPI Fri 13:30 UTC is the next USD-side test of the December 25 vs 50bp debate
Since the late-October slide from 0.5710, NZD/USD has held a 0.5527-0.5658 range. Highs are getting lower: the 0.5658 prior high and then a rejection at the 0.5650 lower high, after hot US CPI erased about half the post-election rally. That CPI drop held a higher low at 0.5586, near the 50% retracement of the 0.5527-0.5650 swing. Price now sits on a flat ema20 at 0.5607 and just under the ema50 at 0.5613, with RSI at 50 and ATR(14) easing from 22 to 20 pips, so the pair is compressing between the lower-highs line and the higher-low line.
Support: 0.56067, 0.55864, 0.55274
Resistance: 0.56133, 0.56495, 0.56581
What it said to watch
An H4 close above the ema50 at 0.5613 and then the 0.5650 lower high would break the lower-high sequence and put the 0.5658 prior high in play
Failure to hold the 0.5586 higher low and the 50% fib would reopen the 0.5527 swing low
Thu Fedspeak and Jobless Claims, then US PPI on Fri at 13:30 UTC, could reprice the USD and decide which edge of the range gives way
Business NZ PMI on Thu at 21:30 UTC is the next domestic test for NZD
Lower highs at 0.5710, 0.5658 and 0.5650 and a lower low at the 0.5527 swing low keep the multi-day structure pointed down. EMA(20) remains below EMA(50), though the two are converging. The election bounce off 0.5527 met rejection at the 0.5650 lower high before the hot US CPI beat knocked price back to the 0.5586 CPI low, near the 50% retracement of the bounce, and price now sits between the rising ema20 at 0.5607 and the flat ema50 at 0.5614, with RSI 51 neutral and ATR easing to about 21 pips.
Support: 0.56065, 0.55864, 0.55274
Resistance: 0.56135, 0.56495, 0.57102
What it said to watch
H4 close above the ema50 at 0.5614 and then the 0.5650 lower high would break the lower-highs sequence and open the path toward the 0.5710 window high
Failure to hold the 0.5586 CPI low and the ema20 re-exposes the 0.5527 swing low
Business NZ PMI (Thu 21:30 UTC) and US PPI (Fri 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read