Lower highs from 0.5710; rebound to 0.5650 range cap fully retraced.
NZDUSD has printed lower highs since the late-October 0.5710 peak. The post-election rebound from the 0.5527 ytd low stalled at the 0.5650 range cap, and the hotter US CPI print has since erased it. Price now presses the 0.5540 recent low below a falling ema20 (0.5576) and ema50 (0.5596), with RSI at 34.7, short of oversold, and ATR(14) compressing from about 22 to 18 pips.
Support: 0.55396, 0.55274
Resistance: 0.55761, 0.55957, 0.56495
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.5527 ytd low confirms a fresh lower-low and extends the lower-highs sequence
Holding the 0.5540 recent low keeps a higher low versus 0.5527 in play
Recovery above the ema50 at 0.5596 weakens the downtrend read; a break of the 0.5650 range cap negates the lower-highs line
Fed's Williams (23:30 UTC) and US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
RBNZ inflation expectations Tue Nov 17 02:00 UTC is the main NZD-side risk
Lower highs at 0.5708, 0.5658 and 0.5650, with price pressing back toward the 0.5527 YTD low.
Swing structure is a sequence of lower highs (0.5708, 0.5658, then 0.5650), drawn as the lower-highs trendline. The election-driven rebound off the 0.5527 YTD low was capped at the 0.5650 lower high. The hot US CPI beat then unwound most of that rally and pushed price back below both EMAs, with EMA20 holding under EMA50 and both turning lower. RSI at 33.9 is weak but not oversold, and ATR(14) has eased from 21.6 to 18.8 pips, so the slide into the YTD low is grinding rather than accelerating.
Support: 0.55274, 0.5500
Resistance: 0.55793, 0.55978, 0.56495
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.5527 YTD low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 0.5500 round number
A recovery through ema20 at 0.5579 and ema50 at 0.5598 would loosen the downtrend read; the 0.5650 lower high and the lower-highs trendline are the structural cap
A hold of the 0.5527 YTD low on a second test would leave a potential double-bottom base, but it is unconfirmed while price is below 0.5650
Business NZ PMI (21:30 UTC today) and US PPI (Fri 13:30 UTC) could materially shift this read, alongside Fed's Daly, Schmid and Williams today
14:03 UTC
Downtrend, momentum soft but not stretched · RSI 38 · price 0.55613
Lower highs since 0.5710; lows holding just above the 0.5527 YTD low.
Lower-high sequence intact from 0.5710 through 0.5658 to the 0.5650 lower high. Hot US CPI unwound much of the election-driven bounce and pushed price back under both EMAs, with ema20 at 0.5583 rolling over beneath the ema50 at 0.5600. The swing low at 0.5544 is holding above the 0.5527 ytd low for now. RSI at 38 shows no oversold extreme, and ATR easing to 18.3 pips points to compression just above the lows.
Support: 0.55441, 0.55274
Resistance: 0.55829, 0.5600, 0.56495
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.5527 ytd low confirms a lower low and fresh multi-year lows
Reclaiming the ema20 at 0.5583 and then the ema50 at 0.5600 would ease downside pressure
A break above the 0.5650 lower high and the lower highs trendline invalidates the downtrend read
Fed speakers today, Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC and Friday's US PPI could materially shift this read
10:02 UTC
Downtrend, ATR compressing near the lows · RSI 38 · price 0.55594
Lower highs from 0.5710; bounce from 0.5527 swing low capped at 0.5650.
NZDUSD keeps printing lower highs from the 0.5710 peak. The post-election bounce off the 0.5527 swing low stalled at a lower high near 0.5650, and the hot US CPI beat turned it back. Price has since given back most of that bounce, slipping through the 78.6% retracement to a week low at 0.5544. Price sits below the EMA20 (0.5586) and the EMA50 (0.5602), with EMA20 under EMA50 and both sloping lower; ATR(14) has eased from 22.4 to 18.6 pips and RSI at 38.3 is soft but not oversold.
Support: 0.55441, 0.55274
Resistance: 0.55855, 0.56016, 0.56495
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.5527 swing low confirms a fresh lower low in the downtrend
Hold of the 0.5544 week low with a reclaim of the ema20 (0.5586) and ema50 (0.5602) would mark a higher low
H4 close above the 0.5650 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Business NZ PMI 21:30 UTC tonight and today's Fed speakers could shift this read
US October PPI Fri 13:30 UTC, the key high-impact catalyst for USD
Lower highs since 0.5710; CPI bounce high rejected.
NZDUSD has printed a sequence of lower highs since the late-October 0.5710 peak, tracked by a descending lower-highs trendline. The bounce from the post-payrolls nfp low at 0.5527 stalled at the 0.5650 cpi high, and the hot US CPI print reversed it. Price is back below the ema20 (0.5592) and ema50 (0.5605), holding between the 61.8% and 78.6% fib of that bounce leg, with ATR(14) easing from 22 to under 19 pips and RSI at 38.6 sitting below midline.
Support: 0.55567, 0.55274
Resistance: 0.55918, 0.56054, 0.56495
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.5557 swing low exposes the 0.5527 nfp low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery above the ema50 at 0.5605 and the 0.5650 cpi high would break the lower-highs trendline
EMA20 has stayed below EMA50 throughout; a bullish ema cross would change the swing read
Business NZ PMI Thu 21:30 UTC and US Core PPI Fri 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read