NZD/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Thursday, 12 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the NZD/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Downtrend, flattening into a base · RSI 44 · price 0.55425
Lower highs since NY, lows clustered 0.5539–0.5540.
NZD/USD has printed lower highs since the NY selloff top at 0.5566, with the firm post-CPI USD keeping the pair below both EMAs. The 22:45 UTC dip swept the session low at 0.5539 before buyers stepped in, and early Asia session trade is compressed under the ema20 at 0.5545 and the 0.5549 lower high, with ATR(14) at 3.6 pips and RSI(14) at 43.7.
Support: 0.55386, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.5545, 0.55489
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5539 session low exposes the 0.5527 ytd low
Close above the 0.5549 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the downtrend read
Fed's Williams speech (23:30 UTC, underway) could jolt the pair out of the compressed range
23:31 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 46 · price 0.55444
Post-NY drop consolidation 0.5539–0.5552 with lower highs.
NY session dropped from 0.5566 to 0.5540 as USD stayed firm on December Fed hike pricing. Since then price has compressed in a 0.5539–0.5552 band, with each bounce stalling at a lower high and price held below the ema20 and ema50. Early Asia printed a marginal new session low at 0.5539 before bouncing. RSI 45.6 is neutral and ATR at 3.6 pips points to a contained tape.
Support: 0.55386, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55451, 0.55487, 0.55516
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5539 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5527 ytd low
Reclaim of the ema50 at 0.5549, the 38.2% fib of the NY drop, breaks the lower-high sequence
Close above the 0.5552 lower high invalidates the compression-below-EMAs read
Fed's Williams speaking now (23:30 UTC); any 50bp hike endorsement could break the range
23:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, stalling in a tight range · RSI 51 · price 0.55455
Lower highs from 0.5570 and lower lows into 0.5539; range 0.5539–0.5552 since NY afternoon.
The NY drop took NZD from the 0.5566 lower high to the 0.5540 NY low on a firm USD. Price has since ranged below the 0.5552 range top. A thin-liquidity dip to the 0.5539 rollover low was quickly reclaimed, putting price back above ema20 (0.5545) but still under ema50 (0.5549), which also sits at the 38.2% retracement of the NY drop.
Support: 0.55452, 0.55404, 0.55386
Resistance: 0.55489, 0.55516
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5549 ema50 and the 0.5552 range top breaks the range and opens 0.5566 lower high
Failure to hold 0.5540 ny low and the 0.5539 rollover low extends the lower-low chain
Fed's Williams speaks in ~14 min (23:30 UTC); any 50bp hike endorsement could break the range
ATR(14) at 3.7 pips and rising from 2.7; a range break would likely come on expanding bars
23:02 UTC
Downtrend, momentum flattening in a low range · RSI 37 · price 0.55455
Lower range 0.5540–0.5552 after the NY selloff; floor swept post-rollover.
The NY selloff took price from 0.55655 to 0.55404 on a firm USD after the hot CPI. Price has since held a 0.5540–0.5552 range, with the range top at 0.55516 capping it below a falling ema50 at 0.5549. Thin post-rollover trade in early Asia swept the range floor to a 0.55386 session low, and price has bounced back toward the ema20 at 0.55451. RSI is 37 and ATR has picked up to 3.5 pips from a 2.7 trough.
Support: 0.55386, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55451, 0.5549, 0.55516
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could break the range if he endorses 50bp or back-to-back hikes
An M15 close back above the ema20 at 0.55451 and the ema50 at 0.5549 neutralises the NY selloff structure; a break of the 0.55516 range top would extend that
Failure to hold the 0.55386 session low opens the 0.5527 ytd low
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC is the next scheduled USD catalyst for range expansion
22:46 UTC
Downtrend, stalled into a tight range · RSI 39 · price 0.55425
Post-NY-sell-off range 0.5540–0.5552 below both EMAs, session low triple-tested.
The NY sell-off from 0.5566 broke the Asian range low near 0.5550 as the hot-CPI USD bid resumed. Price has since boxed in between the 0.5540 session low and the 0.5552 bounce high, holding the session low on three tests including the early Asia dip. It sits below the ema20 (0.55455) and ema50 (0.55493), with RSI(14) at 38.8 and ATR(14) compressed to 3.3 pips.
Support: 0.55396, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55455, 0.55493, 0.55516
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams speaks in ~44 min at 23:30 UTC; any 50bp December endorsement could break the range
An M15 close below the 0.5540 session low exposes the 0.5527 ytd low
A reclaim of the ema50 at 0.55493 and the 0.5552 bounce high would end the lower-high drift and test the 38.2% retrace of the ny sell-off
Lower highs from 0.5568; flat base at 0.5540 session low.
The hot-CPI USD bid drove the NY session break from 0.5566 to a 0.5540 session low, below the 0.5550 Asian range floor. Price has held a tight 0.5540–0.5547 base since, beneath a flat ema20 and a falling ema50 near the 38.2% fib of the NY sell-off. RSI(14) is 34.2, not oversold, and ATR(14) has compressed to 3.2 pips.
Support: 0.5540, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55458, 0.55496, 0.55516
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5540 session low exposes the 0.5527 ytd low
Close back above 0.5552 (lower high, above ema50 / 38.2% fib) breaks the lower-high sequence
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC (~1h) could expand the 3.2-pip ATR and shift this read
Business NZ PMI still pending; a surprise could move the thin Asia session
NY lower highs and lower lows; post-NY tight range under both EMAs.
The NY session sold off from the 0.5566 ny high to the 0.5540 swing low on the USD bid after DXY's run to 103.08. The rebound stalled at the 0.5552 lower high. Since the NY close, price has compressed into a 0.5545–0.5547 band just under the ema20 (0.55463), with the ema50 at 0.5550 overhead and ATR(14) contracting to 3 pips.
Support: 0.55396, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.5550, 0.55516
What it said to watch
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could break the current compression either way
M15 close above the ema50 / 0.5552 lower high would end the NY lower-high sequence and bring the 50% fib near 0.5553 into view
Break below the 0.5540 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5527 ytd low
US PPI Fri 13:30 UTC is the next scheduled volatility point
Tight 0.5542–0.5547 consolidation below NY lower highs.
After the NY drop from 0.5566 to a 0.5540 day low, with hot-CPI USD strength still in play, price has gone flat into the Asia session in a 0.5542–0.5547 band. It sits right on the ema20, and the ema50 at 0.5550 caps it overhead. The 21:30 UTC Business NZ PMI window passed with no visible move, and ATR(14) has compressed from 4.9 to 2.8 pips.
Support: 0.55425, 0.55396, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.5547, 0.55503, 0.55516
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5547 range top and the 0.5550 ema50 breaks the compression. The 0.5552 swing high comes next, near the 38.2% of the NY drop.
Loss of the 0.5542 range low exposes the 0.5540 day low. Below that, the 0.5527 ytd low is the next reference.
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC (~104 min) could break the compression in thin Asia liquidity.
21:31 UTC
Downtrend, compressing into late NY · RSI 46 · price 0.55455
Lower highs from the London high, tight range above the session low.
NZDUSD slid from the 0.5568 London high through NY as hawkish Fed repricing kept the USD bid, setting a 0.5540 session low. Since then it has sat in a 0.5540–0.5547 range top band below ema20 (0.5546) and ema50 (0.5550), with ATR(14) down to 2.9 pips. The lower-high chain stays intact.
Support: 0.55396, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.5547, 0.55505, 0.55516
What it said to watch
Business NZ PMI (21:30 UTC, printing now) can break the compressed range either way
M15 close below the 0.5540 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5527 ytd low
Close above the 0.5547 range top and the 0.5550 ema50 breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 0.5552 bounce high next
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could shift the USD leg
Lower highs from the London high; tight range above the session low.
NZDUSD slid from the 0.5568 London high through NY hours as post-CPI USD strength held, setting a session low at 0.5540 late NY. Since then price has been boxed in a tight 0.5544–0.5547 consolidation just under the flattening ema20, with ATR compressed to 3 pips and RSI recovering to 45.7. The 38.2% fib of the drop and the ema50 cluster near 0.5551, just under the 0.5552 lower high.
Support: 0.55396, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.5547, 0.55506, 0.55516
What it said to watch
Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC, 14 minutes out, could break the 3-pip-ATR consolidation
M15 close above the 0.5547 range top and the ema50/fib cluster near 0.5551 would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.5540 session low exposes the 0.5527 ytd low
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could shift USD pricing in the Asia session
21:02 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 47 · price 0.55461
Lower highs from 0.5568; tight base above 0.5540 day low.
NY session sold off from the 0.5566 NY high through the Asian low at 0.5544, with the Fed-hike repricing after hot US CPI keeping USD firm. The day low held twice near 0.5540, and price now sits flat on the ema20 at 0.5547 with ATR(14) down to 3.1 pips. The ema50 at 0.5551 and the 0.5552 swing high cap the lower-high sequence.
Support: 0.55396, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55508, 0.55516
What it said to watch
Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC, about 28 min out, could break the late-NY compression
M15 close above the 0.5551 ema50 and 0.5552 swing high, also the 38.2% fib zone, breaks the lower-high chain
Failure of the 0.5540 day low exposes the 0.5527 ytd low
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs above a twice-tested 0.5540 session low.
NY broke the Asian range low near 0.5550 as USD stayed bid on Fed-hike repricing. The 0.5540 session low printed in the first hours of NY, and the 19:00 UTC retest held only a pip lower. Late NY price is coiling just under the ema20 with ATR(14) compressed to 3.3 pips and RSI(14) recovered to 45, while the ema50 at 0.5551, near the 50% retrace of the NY sell-off, caps the lower highs.
Support: 0.5540, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55465, 0.5551, 0.5568
What it said to watch
Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC (in ~44 min) could break the current compression
Failure to hold the 0.5540 session low exposes the 0.5527 ytd low
M15 close above the ema50 / 0.5552 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 0.5568 london high
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could shift the USD side into the Asia session
20:31 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 47 · price 0.5546
Lower highs from 0.5566; basing 0.5540–0.5547 under ema50.
NY sold off from the 0.5566 ny high through the asian low at 0.5544, printing a 0.5540 session low twice (15:15 and 19:00 UTC) as the hawkish-Fed USD bid held. Late NY has compressed into a 0.5540–0.5547 box, with price pinned at the flat ema20 and testing the falling trendline. RSI(14) has recovered from 37 to 46.6 and ATR(14) has shrunk to 3.4 pips.
Support: 0.5540, 0.5544
Resistance: 0.55466, 0.55512
What it said to watch
Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC (no forecast) could break the late-NY compression either way
M15 close above the falling trendline and ema50 at 0.5551 (near the 38.2% fib of the ny selloff) undoes the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.5540 session low extends the downtrend toward the 0.5527 YTD low
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC is a second USD catalyst in the Asia session
20:16 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 46 · price 0.5546
Lower highs after NY break of London low; tight 0.5540–0.5552 range since.
The NY selloff ran from the 0.5566 pre-NY high through the London low to a 0.5540 session low as post-CPI USD strength held. Price has since compressed in a 0.5540–0.5552 band under the lower highs line. RSI(14) has recovered from 33 to 45.6 and ATR(14) has eased to 3.6 pips; price sits just below the ema20 at 0.55466, with the ema50 near the 0.5552 range top.
Support: 0.55396, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55466, 0.55516
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5552 range top breaks the lower highs line and the consolidation read
Failure to hold the 0.5540 session low exposes the 0.5527 ytd low
Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC (no forecast) could break the late-NY range
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC on 50bp hike talk could shift this read
20:02 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 43 · price 0.55445
Lower highs since the NY high; tight 0.5540–0.5552 base after the sell-off.
The NY sell-off from the 0.5566 NY high broke the Asian range low and hit a 0.5540 session low, with the dollar still firm after the hot US CPI print. Late NY has compressed beneath the ema20 at 0.5547. The ema50 sits at the 0.5552 bounce high, while RSI(14) holds near 43 and ATR(14) has eased to 3.7 pips.
Support: 0.55396, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55466, 0.55516
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.5540 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5527 ytd low
A close above the 0.5552 bounce high and ema50 breaks the lower-highs trendline from the NY high
Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC, about 90 minutes out, could break the late-NY compression
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC on 50bp December hike talk could shift the USD side of the read
USD strength after the hot CPI pulled NZDUSD off the 0.5566 NY high and below the Asian range low near 0.5550. Price then set a 0.5540 session low. Late NY is compressing under the ema20 at 0.5547 on a run of lower highs, with the ema50 at 0.5552 capping the 15:00 UTC swing high. RSI(14) sits at 38, soft but not stretched, and ATR(14) has eased to 3.8 pips from 5.0.
Support: 0.55396, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55468, 0.55519
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5540 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5527 ytd low
Close above the lower-highs trendline and the ema50 near 0.5552 breaks the NY downswing structure; the 0.5566 ny high is the next swing pivot above
Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC (no forecast) and Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
19:31 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 38 · price 0.55429
Lower highs below both EMAs, compressing just above the session low.
With USD bid on hawkish Fedspeak, the NY session sold off from the 0.5566 NY high, broke the Asian range low near 0.5550 and printed a session low at 0.5540. Lower highs at 0.5552 and 0.5547 have capped price since. Price sits below the ema20 (0.5547) and ema50 (0.5552) with RSI(14) at 37.8, while ATR has compressed to 4 pips in a tight late-NY drift.
Support: 0.55396, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55471, 0.55522
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5540 session low extends the downtrend toward the 0.5527 ytd low
Close back above the ema50 at 0.5552 breaks the lower highs sequence and the 50% retrace of the NY sell-off
Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC (no forecast) could jolt the Kiwi out of the current compression
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC: any 50bp hike endorsement could shift this read
19:16 UTC
Downtrend, grinding near lows · RSI 37 · price 0.55428
Lower highs since the NY sell-off; tight base above 0.5540.
The NY sell-off from 0.5566 broke the London low near 0.5544 and the Asian range floor, with hot-CPI USD demand still the backdrop. Late NY is now grinding along the 0.5540 session low under a falling ema20 and ema50, with lower highs at 0.5552 and 0.5547. RSI(14) at 36.7 is soft but not oversold, and ATR has compressed to 4.1 pips.
Support: 0.55396, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55476, 0.55516, 0.55526
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5540 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5527 ytd low
Close above the 0.5552 lower high and ema50 at 0.5553 breaks the NY lower highs sequence
Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC (~2h, no forecast) could materially shift this read
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC is USD headline risk into the Asia session
NY session rejected the 0.5566 high and slid through the Asian range low near 0.5550 to a 0.5540 session low, with USD bid on hawkish Fed repricing. Since then a chain of lower highs has kept price below the ema20 at 0.5548, with RSI(14) at 36.9 and ATR easing to 4.1 pips as the move compresses into the session low.
Support: 0.55404, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55481, 0.55516
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5552 swing high breaks the lower-high chain and invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Break of the 0.5540 session low exposes the 0.5527 YTD low, about 15 pips below
Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC (no forecast) could materially shift this read
Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC on 50bp December hike talk is the next USD risk
18:46 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 38 · price 0.55443
Lower highs since NY high, tight range above NY low.
NY session reversed from the 0.5566 NY high and broke through the London low to a 0.5540 NY low, with the post-CPI USD bid still capping the Kiwi. The bounce stalled at the 0.5552 bounce high near the fib 50% of the sell-off. Late NY price is compressing at 0.5543–0.5548 under a falling ema20 (0.5549), ATR easing to 4.1 pips and RSI(14) 38.4, short of oversold.
Support: 0.55404, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55486, 0.55516
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5540 NY low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5527 ytd low
Close above the 0.5552 bounce high breaks the lower-high trendline from the NY high
Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC and Fed's Williams at 23:30 UTC could shift this read in the Asia session
18:31 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 40 · price 0.55445
Lower highs since 0.5568; tight base above the 0.5540 day low.
NY session sold off from a 0.5566 lower high on the firm-USD Fed repricing. It took out the London low to a 0.5540 day low, and the rebound stalled at the 0.5552 bounce high, just past the 38.2% of the NY drop. Price is now basing at 0.5543–0.5548 under descending highs, below both the ema20 and ema50, with RSI(14) at 40 and ATR(14) compressing to 4.2 pips.
Support: 0.55427, 0.55404
Resistance: 0.55491, 0.55516, 0.55538
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 at 0.5549 and the descending highs line breaks the late-NY lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the 0.5552 bounce high and the ema50 at 0.5554 negates the NY drop structure
Loss of the 0.5543 base low exposes the 0.5540 day low; a close below extends the lower-low chain
Fed's Schmid (now) and Budget Statement (19:00 UTC) could break the tight base
Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC (no forecast) is the next NZD-side risk for this read
18:17 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 40 · price 0.55446
Lower highs below falling EMAs; tight 0.5543–0.5548 band above the day low.
After a rejection at 0.5566 in the first hour of NY, the pair broke the London low and set a 0.5540 day low as the post-CPI USD bid held. The rebound stalled at the 0.5552 rebound high, near the 38.2% retrace, and price is now compressing above the 0.5543 late NY low, below a falling ema20 (0.5550) and ema50 (0.5554), with RSI(14) at 39.8 and ATR easing to 4.4 pips.
Support: 0.55427, 0.55404, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55495, 0.55516, 0.55542
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.5540 day low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5527 ytd low
Close above the ema20 and the 0.5552 rebound high breaks the lower-high trendline; ema50 at 0.5554 is next above
Fed's Schmid in ~13 min and Williams at 23:30 UTC could break the late-NY compression
Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC (no forecast) is the next NZD-side catalyst
Lower highs below ema20 after NY sell-off to session low.
NY session reversed from the 0.5566 ny high to a 0.5540 session low, undercutting London's 0.5544 low as the post-CPI USD bid held. The bounce was rejected at the 0.5552 swing high, near the 38.2% fib and ema20 (0.5550). Lower highs have followed since, with RSI(14) at 38 and ATR easing to 4.4 pips late in NY.
Support: 0.55404, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55499, 0.55516
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5552 swing high and ema20 breaks the lower-highs line
Failure to hold the 0.5540 session low exposes the 0.5527 ytd low
Fed's Daly (18:10 UTC) and Schmid (18:30 UTC) speak shortly and could materially shift this read
Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC is the next NZD-side risk
17:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs into late NY · RSI 37 · price 0.55431
Lower highs below ema20 after the NY break of the London low.
With USD firm after the hot CPI, NY took out the London low at 0.55441 for a ny low of 0.55404. The bounce high at 0.55516 was rejected at the 38.2% fib, and lower highs near 0.5548 keep price under the ema20 at 0.55505. Late NY, price is drifting back toward the ny low with RSI(14) at 37.2 and ATR easing to 4.5 pips.
Support: 0.55404, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55483, 0.55505, 0.55516
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.55404 ny low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5527 ytd low
Close above the 0.55516 bounce high breaks the lower-high sequence and the trendline
Fed's Daly (18:10 UTC) and Schmid (18:30 UTC) could jolt USD pricing
Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC is the next NZD-side risk, inside the Asia session
17:02 UTC
Intraday downtrend, below both EMAs · RSI 41 · price 0.55467
Lower highs from 0.5566 NY high; session low 0.5540, swing low 0.5543 under test.
The NY session faded the post-claims bounce at the 0.5566 NY high and dropped through the London-open low to a 0.5540 session low, with USD still firm on hot-CPI Fed hike pricing. The dip below the London low was reclaimed, but the rebound stalled at a 0.5552 lower high under the falling ema20 (0.5552) and ema50 (0.5556). Price is now retesting the 0.5543 swing low, with ATR(14) at 4.9 pips.
Support: 0.55428, 0.55404, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55516, 0.55562
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.5540 session low extends the lower-low sequence and opens the 0.5527 ytd low
Close back above the 0.5552 lower high and ema20 breaks the lower-highs trendline
Reclaim of ema50 at 0.5556 (near the 61.8% of the NY drop fib) neutralises the drop; 0.5566 NY high caps above
Fed's Daly (18:10 UTC) and Schmid (18:30 UTC) could shift USD hike pricing
Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC is an event risk for the Asia session
16:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 37 · price 0.55451
Lower high at 0.5552 under the ema20 after break of the London low.
NY session rolled over from the 0.5566 NY high as Fed-hike repricing kept USD firm. It broke the 0.5544 London low to a session low at 0.5540, and the bounce stalled at 0.5552 for a lower high just under the ema20, now crossed below the ema50. ATR(14) has expanded to 5 pips and RSI(14) at 37.1 is soft but not oversold.
Support: 0.55404, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55516, 0.55565
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5552 lower high and ema20 breaks the lower-high sequence, with the ema50 at 0.5557 next
Failure to hold the 0.5540 session low exposes the 0.5527 ytd low
Fed's Daly (18:10 UTC) and Schmid (18:30 UTC) could shift USD hike pricing
Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC could move this read
16:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through NY · RSI 40 · price 0.5545
Lower highs 0.5568/0.5566/0.5552; London low broken in NY.
NY hours broke the 0.5544 london low to a 0.5540 ny low as Fed-hike repricing after the hot CPI kept USD firm. The bounce stalled at 0.5552, the bounce high near the fib 38.2–50% of the 0.5566–0.5540 drop, under a falling ema20 (0.5554) and ema50 (0.5557). ATR has expanded to 4.9 pips from 3.8.
Support: 0.55441, 0.55404, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55516, 0.55537, 0.5557
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5552 bounce high and ema20 breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.5540 ny low exposes the 0.5527 ytd low
Goolsbee now, then Daly 18:10 and Schmid 18:30 UTC, could shift USD hike pricing
Business NZ PMI 21:30 UTC is the next NZD-side risk
16:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, bouncing off NY low · RSI 44 · price 0.55514
Lower high at 0.5566, new session low at 0.5540, retracing.
The NY session sold off from a 0.5566 ny high, a lower high under the 0.5568 London peak, as the post-CPI USD bid held. The drop swept the 0.5544 london low to a 0.5540 ny low before rebounding to 0.5551. Price sits below the ema20 at 0.5554 and the ema50 at 0.5557, with RSI(14) recovering to 44 from 32 and ATR at 4.9 pips.
Support: 0.55441, 0.55404, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55544, 0.55574
What it said to watch
A close above the ema20 at 0.5554 and ema50 at 0.5557 would clear the 61.8% of the NY sell-off fib and soften the lower-high read
A break back above the 0.5566 ny high and the lower highs trendline invalidates the intraday downtrend
A move back below the 0.5544 london low that fails to hold the 0.5540 ny low exposes the 0.5527 ytd low
Fed's Goolsbee in 14 min, plus Daly and Schmid within ~2h15, could materially shift this read; Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC
Lower high 0.55655 and lower low 0.55404 in NY; retesting Asian low from below.
NY rolled over from a 0.55655 lower high under the 0.55678 London peak and cut through the London low at 0.55441 to a 0.55404 NY low as hot-CPI USD demand persisted. The bounce has stalled at the 0.5550 Asian low, with price below a now-falling ema20 (0.55547) and ema50. RSI has recovered to 41.6 from 32.4 and ATR has expanded to 4.9 pips.
Support: 0.55441, 0.55404, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55503, 0.55547, 0.55655
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.5550 Asian low and the ema20 at 0.55547 would neutralise the NY break lower
A move back below the 0.55441 London low and the 0.55404 NY low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5527 YTD low
Lower-high trendline from 0.55678 to 0.55655 caps the session; the 0.55655 NY high is the structural pivot
Fed's Goolsbee in ~30 min, then Daly and Schmid, could shift USD pricing; Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC
15:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, momentum building · RSI 32 · price 0.55447
Lower high at NY high, lower low through the London low.
The NY session was capped at a lower high near 0.5566 (NY high), and the selloff from there broke the 0.5544 London low to a 24h low at 0.5540. USD stays firm on hot-CPI Fed hike repricing. Price sits below a falling ema20 (0.5555) and ema50, RSI(14) is 32.4 and not yet oversold, and ATR(14) has expanded to 4.8 pips.
Support: 0.55441, 0.55404, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55506, 0.55552
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.5540 24h low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5527 ytd low
Reclaiming the 0.5551 asian low and the ema20 near 0.5555 would neutralise the breakdown
The lower highs trendline from 0.5568 caps any bounce while it holds
Fed's Goolsbee speaks in ~45 min, followed by Daly and Schmid; hawkish tone could extend the selloff
Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC is the next NZD-side risk
15:31 UTC
Downtrend, NY sell-off extending · RSI 34 · price 0.55462
Lower high at 0.5566 then lower low at 0.5540, London low swept.
NY session capped at a lower high of 0.5566 (ny high) before a 25-pip slide swept the London low at 0.5544 to a session low of 0.5540, as the hot-CPI USD bid resumed. The last close sat just back above the London low, with price below a rolling ema20 at 0.5556 and the ema50, RSI(14) 33.6 and ATR expanding to 4.9 pips.
Support: 0.55404, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55441, 0.55564
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5540 session low opens the 0.5527 ytd low
Failure to hold back above the 0.5544 london low turns it into resistance
Reclaim of the ema20 at 0.5556 would stall the lower-high sequence below the 0.5566 ny high
Fed's Goolsbee in ~1h, then Daly and Schmid, could extend or reverse the NY sell-off
Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC is the next NZD-side risk
Lower high at 0.5566 in NY, now retesting the London low at 0.5544.
NY rejected a lower high at 0.5566 and erased the London rally, pushing back to the 0.5544 London low as USD stays firm on hawkish Fed repricing. Price is through the 0.5553 ny low and below the ema20 (0.55575) and ema50 (0.5559), with RSI(14) at 34.2 and ATR expanding to 4.8 pips.
Support: 0.55441, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55532, 0.55575
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5544 london low exposes the 0.5527 ytd low
Recovery back above the 0.5553 ny low and the ema20 at 0.55575 would ease the lower-low read
Close above the 0.5566 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Fed's Goolsbee in ~75 min, then Daly and Schmid; Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC
15:02 UTC
Intraday lower high, selling into late NY · RSI 37 · price 0.55492
NY lower high below London peak, back under the Asian low.
The NY high at 0.5566 marked a rejection and a lower high under the 0.5568 London peak. The slide since has taken price back below the 0.5550 Asian low, giving back most of the London rally, with RSI(14) at 36.7 and ATR widening to 4.8 pips. Price sits under a flat ema20 and ema50 as the firm USD after the hot CPI print keeps the 0.5544 London low in view.
Support: 0.55441, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55503, 0.55586
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5544 London low leaves the 0.5527 YTD low as the next reference
Reclaim of the 0.5550 Asian low and ema20 at 0.5559 would negate the lower-high read
Break above the 0.5566 NY high and lower-high trendline turns structure neutral
Fed's Goolsbee (16:30 UTC) and Daly/Schmid later in NY hours could shift this read
Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC is the next NZD-side catalyst
14:46 UTC
Range-bound, drifting under flat EMAs · RSI 47 · price 0.55562
Lower highs at 0.5566–0.5568 over a 0.5553 NY low.
London open swept the asian low to 0.5544 (london low), then recovered to the 0.5568 session high. Since then, lower highs at 0.5565 have capped the pair, and the NY low at 0.5553 held on the 61.8% retrace. The 14:15 UTC rejection has pushed price back below the flat ema20 (0.5560) with RSI(14) neutral at 46.9, as the USD pauses after hot CPI and a mild claims miss.
Support: 0.55532, 0.55503, 0.55441
Resistance: 0.55597, 0.55655, 0.55678
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5553 NY low (61.8% retrace) exposes the 0.5550 asian low and the 0.5544 london low
Close back above the ema20 at 0.5560 and the 0.5566 lower highs challenges the 0.5568 session high
Fed's Barr and Existing Home Sales in ~15 min, then Goolsbee, Daly and Schmid, could break the range
Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC is the next NZD-side catalyst
14:31 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher low in place · RSI 56 · price 0.55611
Higher low at 0.5553 above London low, capped below London high.
London dipped below the Asian low to 0.5544 and reclaimed it, rallying to a London high at 0.5568. The NY low at 0.5553 held near the 61.8% retrace after US claims, and price now sits just above a flat EMA cluster at 0.5560, with the USD pausing near post-CPI highs and RSI(14) neutral at 55.8.
Support: 0.5560, 0.55532, 0.55441
Resistance: 0.55678, 0.55698
What it said to watch
Fed's Barr and Existing Home Sales in ~30m could shift this read
M15 close back below the EMA cluster at 0.5560 puts the NY low at 0.5553 back in focus
Failure to hold 0.5553 breaks the higher-low line and reopens the London low at 0.5544
Close above the London high at 0.5568 targets the Asian high near 0.5570
14:16 UTC
Intraday range, EMAs flat · RSI 52 · price 0.55623
Higher low at 0.5553 inside London high / Asian low range.
The 13:30 UTC jobless claims bar spiked to the 0.5553 NY low and was rejected at the 61.8% fib of the Asian low–London high leg. Price has since recovered back above flat EMA20/EMA50 near 0.5560, with RSI(14) neutral at 51.8. Supply has capped the pair at the 0.5565 lower high and the 0.5568 London high, leaving it rotating mid-range while USD pauses after the CPI repricing.
Support: 0.5560, 0.55532, 0.55441
Resistance: 0.55654, 0.55678
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.55678 London high breaks the range top
Loss of the 0.55532 NY low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 0.55441 Asian low
Fed's Barr and US Existing Home Sales in ~44 min, followed by more Fedspeak through NY hours
Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC could shift the read after NY close
14:02 UTC
Flat, coiling after London rebound · RSI 49 · price 0.55604
Higher low vs lower high, 0.5553–0.5568 box.
London open swept the Asian low to the 0.5544 london low, then recovered to the 0.5568 london high, short of the 0.5570 Asian high. The 13:30 UTC jobless claims spike printed a higher low at 0.5553 (fib 61.8 of that leg) and a lower high at the 0.5564 claims high. Early NY, price sits just under the ema20 and ema50 near 0.5560 with RSI 49 and ATR 4.3 pips, so the box is narrowing.
Support: 0.55532, 0.55441, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.5560, 0.55639, 0.55678
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5560 ema50 and 0.5564 claims high puts the 0.5568 london high back in play
Break of the 0.5553 fib 61.8 and the higher-low trendline exposes the 0.5544 london low
Below 0.5544, the 0.5527 ytd low from the digest is the next reference
Fed's Barr and Existing Home Sales at 15:00 UTC, then Goolsbee at 16:30 UTC, could shift this read
13:46 UTC
Intraday range, slipping under flat EMAs · RSI 47 · price 0.55568
London false break below Asian low reversed to 0.5568; early NY pullback holding the 61.8% retracement.
London broke below the Asian low at 0.5550 to 0.5544, then reversed to a 0.5568 London high. Early NY sold back to the 0.5553 fib 61.8 retracement of that leg, and the in-line 200K jobless claims print left price at 0.5557. Price sits below the flattening ema cluster near 0.5560, with RSI(14) neutral at 46.6 and ATR(14) at 4.3 pips.
Support: 0.55532, 0.55503, 0.55441
Resistance: 0.5560, 0.55678
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5553 fib 61.8 exposes the 0.5550 asian low and the 0.5544 london low
Reclaim of the 0.5560 ema cluster puts the 0.5568 london high back in play
Hammack speaks in 14 min, then Barr, Goolsbee and Daly through the NY session; hawkish 50bp talk could extend USD strength
Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC could reset the late-day range
London rebounded from the 0.5544 London low to the 0.5568 London high, then printed a lower high at 0.5565. The 13:00 UTC drop was rejected at the 61.8% fib near 0.5553, and price is now pressing the ema20 at 0.5560 from below. Pair stays heavy after the hot US CPI print; RSI(14) is neutral at 49 and ATR(14) is up to 4.4 pips.
Support: 0.55532, 0.55441
Resistance: 0.55598, 0.55654, 0.55678
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims printing in the current 13:30 UTC bar, with Fed's Hammack speaking in 29 min, could materially shift this read
M15 close above the ema20 at 0.5560 and the 0.5565 lower high reopens the 0.5568 London high
Failure to hold the fib 61.8 at 0.5553 exposes the 0.5544 London low
13:16 UTC
Intraday range, slipping lower into NY open · RSI 41 · price 0.55541
London lower high under Asian high; price back below ema cluster.
The London rally from the 0.5544 london low stalled at 0.5568, a rejection below the 0.5570 asian high. The 13:00 UTC bar dropped back under the flat ema cluster near 0.5560 and the London rising line, and its pre-ny low at 0.5553 sits on the 61.8% retracement of that rally. RSI(14) is 41.3 and ATR has ticked up to 4.2 pips ahead of NY, with the USD still bid after the hot CPI.
Support: 0.55532, 0.55495, 0.55441
Resistance: 0.5560, 0.55678, 0.55698
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) can extend or reverse the 13:00 drop
M15 close below the 0.5550 asian low exposes the 0.5544 london low and the 0.5527 YTD low
Recovery above the 0.5560 ema cluster restores the 0.5544–0.5570 session range
Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC (Hammack, Barr) could shift USD pricing through the NY session
Higher lows since London low, lower highs since 10:45 UTC session high; tightening below Asian high.
London opened with a false break of the Asian range low to the 0.5544 London low, then reclaimed it and ran to a 0.5568 session high as the USD paused after its post-CPI run. Into the London-NY transition, price is consolidating just above the flat ema20/50 at 0.5560, with the 0.5558 swing low holding near the 38.2% fib and rising support intact. RSI is a neutral 52 and ATR has compressed to 3.7 pips.
Support: 0.55604, 0.55577, 0.55441
Resistance: 0.55678, 0.55698
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC, then Fed's Hammack at 14:00 UTC, could break the compression either way
M15 close below the 0.5558 swing low breaks rising support and the higher-low chain, opening the London low at 0.5544
M15 close above the 0.5568 session high puts the 0.5570 Asian high back in play; supply has capped rallies near 0.5600–0.5650
Loss of the ema20/50 at 0.5560 shifts the read back toward the lower half of today's range
Lower highs off the session high, pulling back into the EMAs.
London opened with a false break of the 0.5550 Asian low to a 0.5544 sweep low, then rebounded to a 0.5568 session high, still under the 0.5570 Asian high with the post-CPI USD bid intact. Since then lower highs have pulled price back to just under the flat ema20/ema50 near 0.5560 ahead of the NY open. RSI(14) is neutral at 50.1 and ATR(14) has compressed to 3.8 pips.
Support: 0.55577, 0.55503, 0.55441
Resistance: 0.55603, 0.55678, 0.55698
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.5558 pullback low brings the 50% fib of the rebound (~0.5556) and the 0.5550 Asian low back into view
Close above the 0.5568 session high breaks the lower-highs line and opens a test of the 0.5570 Asian high
Loss of the 0.5544 sweep low would negate the London false break
US Initial Jobless Claims in 44 min and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
London lower high at 0.5565, price retesting the 0.5559 swing low.
London swept below the Asian low to a 0.5544 london low, then rallied 24 pips to a 0.5568 london high, still under the 0.5570 asian high. Late London has printed a lower high at 0.5565 and slipped back under the ema20/ema50 at 0.5560 to retest the 0.5559 swing low, which sits at the 38.2% fib. RSI is neutral at 49 and ATR has compressed to 3.9 pips. The pressure comes from hot US CPI and a firm USD.
Support: 0.55587, 0.55491, 0.55441
Resistance: 0.55604, 0.55678, 0.55698
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5559 swing low exposes the 50% fib near 0.5556, then the 0.5549 london dip
Holding the 0.5559 swing low and reclaiming the 0.5560 ema20 keeps the London recovery intact; a close above the 0.5568 london high reopens the 0.5570 asian high
Failure at the 0.5544 london low would undo the London sweep
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Hammack at 14:00 UTC, during the first hour of NY, could expand range beyond the 3.9-pip ATR
Higher highs and higher lows since the London low, capped below the Asian high.
London opened with a false break below the asian low at 0.5551, printing the london low at 0.5544 before a higher-high, higher-low recovery to a session high at 0.5568, in step with the dollar trimming post-CPI gains in Europe. The 0.5561 higher low held at the EMAs (20 at 0.55605 has just crossed above 50 at 0.55604), and price sits near 0.5564, just under the session high and the asian high at 0.5570, with RSI(14) at 57.6 and ATR(14) easing to 3.8 pips.
Support: 0.55606, 0.55506, 0.55441
Resistance: 0.55678, 0.55698
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5561 higher low and EMAs breaks the London higher-low chain
Close above the 0.5568 session high and 0.5570 asian high clears the Asia-session cap
Failure under 0.5551 asian low reopens the 0.5544 london low
US Initial Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
12:02 UTC
Intraday rebound, higher lows since London open · RSI 59 · price 0.55646
London sweep of Asian low, HH/HL recovery under Asian high.
London opened with a sweep below the Asian range low to the 0.5544 london low and reversed, printing a higher low at 0.5559 as the dollar trimmed post-CPI gains in Europe. Price holds above the flat ema20/ema50 cluster near 0.5560 with RSI(14) at 59, while the 0.5568 session high and 0.5570 asian high cap the rebound.
Support: 0.55602, 0.55587, 0.55441
Resistance: 0.55678, 0.55701
What it said to watch
M15 close below the ema20/ema50 cluster and the 0.5559 higher low breaks the London higher-lows chain
Close above the 0.5570 asian high marks a range break higher
Return toward the 0.5544 london low would undo the sweep-and-reverse read
US Initial Claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fed speaker slate from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
11:46 UTC
Intraday recovery, pausing at EMAs · RSI 55 · price 0.55608
Post-sweep HH/HL chain, pullback to ema20/ema50.
London open swept below the Asian lows to the 0.5544 london low, then built higher lows to a 0.5568 session high. Price is now back on the ema20/ema50 cluster near 0.5560 with RSI(14) cooled to 55 and ATR at 3.9 pips. The USD bid after the hot US CPI keeps the 0.5570 asian high as a cap.
Support: 0.55598, 0.55587, 0.55441
Resistance: 0.55678, 0.55698
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5559 higher low (38.2% of the London leg) breaks the higher-low chain back toward the 0.5544 london low
Close above the 0.5568 session high and 0.5570 asian high extends the recovery
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher low off the London low, capped below the Asian high.
London undercut the Asian low at 0.5551 to a 0.5544 London low, then reversed into a higher-low sequence. The rally stalled at a 0.5568 session high, just under the 0.5570 Asian high. Price is now retesting the ema50 near 0.5560 with RSI(14) cooling to 53.6 from 65.7, while USD stays bid after Tuesday's hot CPI.
Support: 0.55601, 0.55587, 0.55441
Resistance: 0.55677, 0.5570
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5559 swing low breaks the trendline off the London low and the higher-low chain
Close above the 0.5568 session high and the 0.5570 Asian high clears the rejection zone
Loss of the 38.2% London rally fib at 0.5559 exposes the 61.8% near 0.5553
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K), then Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain off the London low, capped below the Asian high.
London open swept the Asian low near 0.5551 down to a london low at 0.5544. A higher-low chain since then carried price to a session high at 0.5568, back above both EMAs, with the ema50 at 0.5560 and RSI(14) cooling from 65.7 to 60.3. The bounce runs against a USD bid on post-CPI Fed hike pricing, and the asian high at 0.5570 sits just overhead.
Support: 0.55601, 0.55587, 0.55441
Resistance: 0.55677, 0.55698
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5559 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the rally trendline
Close above the 0.5568 session high and 0.5570 asian high extends the London rally
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Loss of 0.5544 london low reopens the post-CPI downside
HH/HL chain off the London low, testing the Asian range top.
London open briefly broke below the Asian low before reversing from the 0.5544 london low. The rebound since has built a clean higher-low chain to 0.5566, above both EMAs and just under the 0.5568 session high and the 0.5570 asian high. RSI(14) is 65.7 and rising, ATR is 4 pips, and the move runs against a USD still firm after the hot CPI print.
Support: 0.55599, 0.55441
Resistance: 0.55677, 0.55698
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.5570 asian high breaks the overnight range top
A loss of the higher-low trendline and the ema50 near 0.5560 would stall the rebound; the 50% rebound fib sits near 0.5556
A return below the 0.5544 london low would void the false-break read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the 0.5544 low · RSI 65 · price 0.55658
Higher-low chain through London, pressing the Asian range top.
After a pre-London swing low at 0.5544, London has printed a steady higher-low chain back above both EMAs as DXY eases from its 103.08 high. Price sits at the London high at 0.5566, just under the 0.5570 Asia high (the 00:00 UTC spike top), with RSI(14) at 64.8, firm but not stretched, and ATR(14) about 4 pips.
Support: 0.55587, 0.55441
Resistance: 0.55663, 0.55698
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5570 Asia high breaks the Asian range to the upside
Break below the 0.5559 higher low, near ema50, ends the London higher-low chain; the 0.5544 swing low is the next reference
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fed speakers that follow could reverse the USD pullback behind this bounce
10:31 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows since London open · RSI 62 · price 0.55639
London swept the Asian low, then reversed into an HH/HL chain inside the Asian range.
London open swept the Asian range low at 0.5551 down to a london low of 0.5544, then reversed. A higher-low chain since then has reclaimed the ema20 and ema50, with the 10:15 UTC swing low at 0.5559 the latest pivot, and RSI(14) at 62. The USD bid from the hot CPI print kept the pair heavy overnight, and the recovery is now pressing the session high at 0.5565, still below the 0.5570 asian high.
Support: 0.55587, 0.55575, 0.55441
Resistance: 0.55654, 0.55698
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5559 swing low and ema20 at 0.5558 breaks the higher-low chain
M15 close above the 0.5570 asian high takes price out of the Asian range
Rejection at the 0.5565 session high, inside the 0.5640-0.5650 cap zone, keeps the bounce corrective
Failure to hold above the 0.5544 london low reopens the downside
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
London open swept the Asian low near 0.5550, made a 0.5544 London low, then reversed into a higher-low chain toward a 0.5563 session high. This is a counter-move against the post-CPI USD bid. Price sits just above the ema50 at 0.5559 with RSI(14) easing from 62 to 58, and the Asian high at 0.5570 sits overhead.
Support: 0.55592, 0.55543, 0.55441
Resistance: 0.55633, 0.55698
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the ema50 at 0.5559 and the 0.5554 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
Close above the 0.5563 session high opens the 0.5570 Asian high
Loss of the 0.5544 London low turns the sweep into a fresh lower low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
10:02 UTC
Rebound from London low, stalling · RSI 56 · price 0.55593
Higher lows since 0.5544, pullback from 0.5563 session high.
London open broke under the Asian lows to a 0.5544 london low, then reversed in a higher-low chain to a 0.5563 session high. Price is now pulling back onto the ema50 at 0.5559, with the ema20 at 0.5556 turning up and RSI(14) easing to 56 from 62. Post-CPI USD strength remains the backdrop, keeping the asian high at 0.5570 overhead.
Support: 0.55592, 0.55564, 0.55441
Resistance: 0.55633, 0.55698
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5563 session high reopens the 0.5570 asian high
Loss of the ema20 and the 0.5549 higher low exposes the 0.5544 london low again
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:46 UTC
Intraday recovery off London low, pressing resistance · RSI 62 · price 0.5562
Higher highs and higher lows since 0.5544, price at the prior NY range top.
London open swept the Asian range low into the 0.5544 London low, then reversed. Price has since climbed in a higher-low chain back above the EMA20 and the ema50 (0.5559) as the dollar gave back some early gains. RSI(14) is at 62.3 and price is now testing the underside of yesterday's NY range top near 0.5567, with the Asian high at 0.5570 just above.
Support: 0.55592, 0.55491, 0.55441
Resistance: 0.55672, 0.55698
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5567 NY range top and the 0.5570 Asian high extends the London leg recovery
A close back below the ema50 at 0.5559 and the rising support line points to a fade of the bounce
Loss of the 0.5549 higher low, then the 0.5544 London low, resumes the lower-low sequence
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain off the London session low, back inside the Asian range.
Early London pushed through the Asian range low near 0.5551 to a 0.5544 session low, then reversed. That false break has been followed by a higher-low chain that lifted price back above both EMAs, with RSI(14) climbing to 61.7 from 31. The rebound has retraced about 70% of the drop from the 0.5570 Asian high and is now pressing yesterday's 0.5567 NY range top, while the broader USD bid from the hot CPI print still frames the pair.
Support: 0.5559, 0.55554, 0.55441
Resistance: 0.55672, 0.55698
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.5570 Asian high, beyond the 0.5567 NY range top, breaks the range to the upside and clears the asia high fib
Failure at the NY range top and a loss of the 0.5559 ema50 and HL trendline put the 0.5555 ema20 and the 0.5544 session low back in play
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC (f/c 195K) and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this USD-driven read
Higher lows off 0.5544 session low, capped at ema50.
London opened with a false break of the 0.5551 Asian low to a 0.5544 session low. Since then a chain of higher lows has lifted price back above the ema20 and into the ema50 at 0.5559, just under the 0.5561 London high and the 50–61.8% fib of the Asian high–session low drop. RSI(14) has recovered to 57 from 31 and ATR has edged up to 4.4 pips. The bounce still sits inside a 24h downtrend driven by the post-CPI USD bid, with DXY at 18-month highs.
Support: 0.55547, 0.55506, 0.55441
Resistance: 0.55589, 0.55608, 0.55698
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5561 London high and ema50 would clear the fib zone toward the 0.5570 Asian high
Break of the rising London trendline near 0.5551 (Asian low) puts the 0.5544 session low back in play
Loss of the ema20 at 0.5555 would stall the higher-low chain
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
09:02 UTC
Downtrend, corrective bounce from London low · RSI 50 · price 0.55579
Lower highs from Asia high; higher low forming after London-open sweep.
Hot US CPI and Fed hike bets keep NZD heavy. The Asia session printed lower highs from the 0.5570 asia high, and the London open swept below the Asian range to a 0.5544 london low before rebounding. Price is back at the 50% fib, above ema20 and capped by ema50 at 0.5559, with RSI(14) recovered to 49.5 from 31.
Support: 0.55543, 0.55491, 0.55441
Resistance: 0.55589, 0.55634, 0.55698
What it said to watch
M15 close above ema50 at 0.5559 and the 0.5563 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.5549 higher low reopens the 0.5544 london low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
08:46 UTC
Downtrend, London bounce stalling · RSI 46 · price 0.55527
Lower highs from Asian high; London false break below Asian low.
Early in the London session, price broke below the Asian low near 0.5550 to a London low at 0.5544, then recovered back into the range, but the bounce capped at the 0.5557 London high, just under the 50% retrace of the Asian high to London low leg. Price is back below the ema20 (0.55542) with RSI(14) at 45.5. Supply from the hot-CPI USD bid is still capping rallies, and the 0.5549 higher low is the nearest reference.
Support: 0.55491, 0.55441, 0.5540
Resistance: 0.55591, 0.55698
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5544 london low exposes the 0.5540 19m low and reopens the downtrend leg
Loss of the 0.5549 higher low would undo the London false break
Close above the 0.5557 london high and the ema50 at 0.55591 breaks the lower-high sequence toward the 0.5570 asian high
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
ATR(14) up to 4.2 pips from 3.5 points to wider intraday swings into NY
08:31 UTC
Downtrend, bounce off london low · RSI 48 · price 0.55547
Lower highs from 0.55698; London open false break below Asian low, now retracing.
The slide that followed the hot US CPI print extended into London open, which pushed below the Asian low at 0.5550 to a london low of 0.55441 before buyers reclaimed it. Price is now holding just above ema20 near the 38.2% retrace, with RSI(14) back to 48 from 31. The lower-high chain from 0.55698 stays intact, with the session high at 0.55565 and ema50 at 0.55593 overhead.
Support: 0.55543, 0.55503, 0.55441
Resistance: 0.55565, 0.55593, 0.55634
What it said to watch
M15 close above ema50 at 0.55593 and the 0.55634 swing high breaks the lower-high chain
Failure back below the asian low at 0.5550 reopens the 0.55441 london low
ATR(14) near 4 pips; a break of the 0.55565 session high would mark the first extension of the bounce
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could shift this read
Lower highs from 0.5570; London swept the Asian low, now retracing.
The slide that followed the hot US CPI print extended into London, where the first hour swept the asian low at 0.5550 down to a 0.5544 london low before reclaiming it. Price is now pinned at the flat ema20 and the 38.2% retrace of the 0.5570–0.5544 drop near the 0.5555 london high, with RSI(14) back to 47.6 from 31 and ATR(14) at 4.2 pips.
Support: 0.55503, 0.55441, 0.5540
Resistance: 0.55549, 0.55595, 0.55634
What it said to watch
A close back below the 0.5550 asian low exposes the 0.5544 london low and the 0.5540 19-month low
A reclaim of the ema50 at 0.5560 (61.8% of the drop retrace) and the 0.5563 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure at the 0.5555 london high keeps the downtrend structure intact
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
LH/LL chain through Asia; London open broke the Asian low, bounce capped at ema20.
Asia printed lower highs off the 0.5570 asian high, and London open broke below the Asian range low to a 0.5544 london low. The bounce was rejected at the ema20 (0.5554) and the descending trendline. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) at 43 and ATR at 4 pips, as hot US CPI keeps USD bid.
Support: 0.55441, 0.5540
Resistance: 0.55543, 0.55597, 0.55698
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema20 at 0.5554 and the descending trendline would break the lower-high chain
ema50 at 0.5560 is the next cap; the asian high at 0.5570 marks the top of the session structure
Failure to hold the 0.5544 london low exposes the 0.5540 round number
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower-high/lower-low chain through Asia; London open swept the Asian low and price reclaimed 0.5550.
Kiwi has made a chain of lower highs since the 0.5570 Asian high as the post-CPI USD bid holds. The London open swept the asian low at 0.5550 down to a 0.5544 london low, with RSI(14) bottoming at 31. Price has bounced back to 0.5551, under the falling ema20 at 0.5554 and the 38.2% fib of the Asia-London leg. ATR(14) has expanded to 4.1 pips from 3.5.
Support: 0.55503, 0.55441
Resistance: 0.55545, 0.5560
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5544 london low extends the lower-low chain
Close above the ema20 at 0.5554 and the lower-high trendline breaks the downtrend sequence; the ema50 at 0.5560 is the next cap
Losing the asian low at 0.5550 again turns the sweep into continuation
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC (~5.5h) and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:31 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 31 · price 0.55477
Lower-high chain off the 01:00 UTC spike; 0.5550 shelf broken into early London.
The Asia session decline from the 0.5570 spike carved steady lower highs along a falling trendline. In the run-up to the London open, the 07:15 UTC bar broke the 0.5550 shelf to a session low at 0.5544, as post-CPI USD strength persists. Price sits below a falling ema20 (0.5555) and ema50 (0.5560); RSI(14) is 31.3, near but not at oversold, and ATR(14) is 3.9 pips, picking up from 3.5.
Support: 0.55441, 0.5540, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.5550, 0.55549, 0.55604
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5550 broken shelf and the lower-highs trendline invalidates the breakdown read
Failure to hold the 0.5544 session low exposes the 0.5540 19m low, then the 0.5527 friday low
Reclaiming ema50 near 0.5560 would mark the first higher high since the Asia decline began
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 36 · price 0.5550
Lower-high chain from 0.5570; London open pressing the Asian low.
Hot US CPI and a firm dollar keep NZD heavy. Lower highs have stepped down from the 0.5570 Asian high, capped by a falling trendline, and the London open is now leaning on the 0.5550 Asian low. Price sits below both EMAs, RSI(14) is 36.1 and not oversold, and ATR has compressed to 3.7 pips.
Support: 0.5550, 0.5540
Resistance: 0.55557, 0.55609, 0.55698
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5550 asian low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5540 19m low
Reclaim of ema20 (0.5556) and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high sequence; ema50 at 0.5561 is next
Only a recovery above the 0.5570 asian high would invalidate the Asia downtrend read
US Initial Jobless Claims 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 37 · price 0.55526
Lower-high chain, price at Asian range low into London open.
Asia faded the 0.5570 Asian high and printed a fresh window low at the 0.5550 Asian low as post-CPI USD strength extended. Lower highs cap price under the declining ema20 and ema50. London opens at the range floor with RSI(14) at 37.4 and ATR compressing to 3.5 pips.
Support: 0.55503, 0.5540, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55562, 0.55613, 0.55698
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5550 asian low exposes the 0.5540 19m low, then the 0.5527 friday low
M15 close back above the ema50 at 0.5561 breaks the lower-highs trendline and the downtrend read
Hold above the asian low with a reclaim of the ema20 at 0.5556 points to a range forming at the low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain under falling trendline, sitting on session low.
The Asia session extended the post-CPI USD-driven slide. Lower highs fanned down from the 0.5570 Asia high under a falling trendline, and the 0.5555 floor gave way to a 0.5551 session low. Price is below both EMAs heading into the London open, with RSI(14) at 36 and ATR compressing to 3.6 pips.
Support: 0.55506, 0.5540, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55555, 0.55617, 0.55698
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5551 session low exposes the 0.5540 19m low, then the 0.5527 friday low
M15 close above the 0.5556 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high chain; ema50 at 0.5562 is the next cap
Reclaim of the 0.5570 asia high would void the session downtrend read
US Initial Jobless Claims 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia lower highs and lower lows, testing below ema20.
The Asia session extended the USD-led slide that followed the hot US CPI. It printed lower highs from the 0.5570 asian high through the 0.5563 lower high, then set a fresh asia low at 0.5551. Price sits just under the ema20 at 0.5557 into London open, with RSI(14) at 42.4 off its 32 trough and ATR(14) compressing to 3.6 pips.
Support: 0.55506, 0.5540
Resistance: 0.55572, 0.55634, 0.55698
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5551 asia low exposes the 0.5540 19-month low
M15 close back above the ema20 and the falling trendline near 0.5560 breaks the lower-high chain
Reclaim of the 0.5563 lower high puts the 0.5570 asian high back in play
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs through Asia, session low 0.5551 holding into London open.
NZD stays heavy on the post-CPI dollar bid. Asia printed a chain of lower highs from the 0.5570 asian high to a session low of 0.5551 at 05:15 UTC. Price is now capped below a falling ema20 at 0.5558 heading into London open, with RSI(14) at 38.5 after a dip to 32 and ATR(14) compressed to 3.7 pips.
Support: 0.55506, 0.5540, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.55575, 0.55634, 0.55698
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5563 lower high breaks the Asia lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.5551 session low exposes the 0.5540 19m low, then the 0.5527 friday low
Asia lower highs trendline near 0.5554 still capping price; a clean break above it eases the downtrend read
US Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC) and Fed's Hammack (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
06:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 40 · price 0.55528
Lower-high/lower-low chain from the 0.5570 Asian high, session low at 0.5551.
Since the 01:30 UTC spike to the 0.5570 Asian high, NZDUSD has printed steadily lower highs and a fresh session low at 0.5551 into the pre-London hours. It holds below a falling ema20 (0.5558) and ema50 (0.5563), with USD strength after the hot US CPI print driving the slide. RSI(14) has bounced to 39.9 off a 32 dip, and ATR at 3.8 pips shows compressing ranges.
Support: 0.55506, 0.5540
Resistance: 0.55579, 0.55628, 0.55698
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5551 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5540 19-month low
Reclaim of the ema20 and the falling trendline near 0.5560 breaks the lower-high sequence; ema50 at 0.5563 is next
London open in ~2h may decide whether the Asian range (0.5551–0.5570 asian high) breaks
US Initial Jobless Claims 13:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
05:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 35 · price 0.55523
Asian floor near 0.5555 broken, lower-high chain intact.
Late in the Asia session, price broke the 0.5555 Asian floor after three overnight tests and printed a session low at 0.5551. Highs keep stepping lower from 0.5570 along a descending trendline, with price below the ema20 (0.5558) and ema50 (0.5563). RSI(14) is at 34.7, not oversold, and ATR is compressing to 3.8 pips as post-CPI USD strength keeps NZD heavy.
Support: 0.55506, 0.5540
Resistance: 0.5555, 0.55583, 0.55632
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5555 asia floor would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5551 session low exposes the 0.5540 19-mo low
Close above the descending trendline and the ema20 near 0.5558 (asia fib 38.2%) breaks the lower-high chain
London open is within ~2h and could widen the range from 3.8-pip ATR conditions
US Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC) and the Fed speaker slate could materially shift this read
05:31 UTC
Downtrend, Asia lows breaking · RSI 32 · price 0.55515
Lower highs from the 0.5570 Asian high; 0.5555 floor broken late Asia.
Asia session has printed a lower-high line off the 0.5570 Asian high. The 0.5555 floor, tested three times, gave way into the session low at 0.5551. Price sits below both a falling ema20 and ema50, with RSI(14) at 32 as hot-CPI USD strength persists.
Support: 0.55506, 0.5540, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.5555, 0.55589, 0.55698
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5555 broken floor would mark the break as false
Failure to hold the 0.5551 session low exposes the 0.5540 19m low, then the 0.5527 Friday low
Close above the ema20 at 0.5559 and the lower-high line would end the Asian downtrend
London open is about 2h out and typically sets fresh range extremes
US Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC) and Fed speakers later could shift the USD leg
05:16 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into the lows · RSI 39 · price 0.55557
Lower highs pressing a flat 0.5555 Asian low.
Late Asia session is testing the 0.5555 Asian low for a second time beneath a chain of lower highs from the 0.5570 Asian high, with price below a falling ema20 at 0.5560 and the 0.5563 swing high capping the 03:30 UTC bounce. NZD stays heavy after the hot US CPI lifted DXY to an 18-month high. ATR(14) is compressing to 3.8 pips with RSI(14) at 38.7, not oversold.
Support: 0.55547, 0.5540
Resistance: 0.55597, 0.55634, 0.55698
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5555 asia low extends the NY-session slide and opens the 0.5540 19-month low (19m low)
Close back above the ema20 and the lower-highs line near 0.5560 breaks the sequence; 0.5563 swing high and 0.5570 asia high sit above
London open in ~2h may resolve the compression at the Asian range
US Initial Jobless Claims 13:30 UTC and the Fed speaker slate from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Late Asia session, NZD/USD is leaning on the 0.5555 Asia low for a third time after the 01:00 UTC rejection at the 0.5570 Asia high. Lower highs have capped each bounce below the falling ema20 (0.5560) and ema50 (0.5565) as the hot-CPI USD bid extends the two-day slide. RSI(14) at 38.9 and ATR(14) at 3.9 pips show a compressed, heavy tape ahead of London open.
Support: 0.55547, 0.5540
Resistance: 0.55602, 0.55634, 0.55698
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5555 Asia low breaks the Asian base and exposes the 0.5540 19m low
Close above the lower highs line and the 0.5563 swing high negates the descending sequence, with the 0.5570 Asia high next
US Initial Jobless Claims 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
04:46 UTC
Downtrend, compressing under ema20 · RSI 44 · price 0.55587
Lower highs from the 0.5570 Asian high, tight base above the 0.5555 Asian low.
Hot US CPI kept the dollar bid into Asia. NZDUSD broke under yesterday's 0.5561 NY floor, saw a rejection at the 0.5570 Asian high and printed a 0.5555 Asian low, with each bounce since capped by a lower swing high at 0.5563. Late Asia is compressing just below ema20 at 0.5561, with RSI(14) at 43.6 and ATR(14) easing to 3.9 pips.
Support: 0.55547, 0.5540
Resistance: 0.55606, 0.55634, 0.55698
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5563 swing high breaks the lower-highs sequence and clears the ema20 cap
Failure to hold the 0.5555 Asian low exposes the 0.5540 19m low
London open in ~2h tests the 0.5555–0.5570 Asian range
US jobless claims 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers through NY hours could materially shift this read
04:31 UTC
Downtrend, Asia drifting near lows · RSI 43 · price 0.55576
Lower highs below both EMAs; Asia low 0.5555 being retested.
The post-CPI dollar bid keeps NZD heavy. After the 0.5570 Asia high was rejected, a lower swing high formed at 0.5563 and price is pressing the 0.5555 Asia low again late in the Asia session. Price sits below the falling ema20 (0.5561) and ema50 (0.5565), with RSI 42.9 neutral-soft and ATR at 4 pips.
Support: 0.55547, 0.5554
Resistance: 0.55608, 0.55634, 0.55698
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5555 Asia low exposes the 0.5540 prior lows
Close above the 0.5563 swing high breaks the lower-highs line; ema20 at 0.5561 is the first cap
Reclaim of the 0.5570 Asia high would invalidate the downtrend read
US Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could reprice USD and shift this read
04:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs in Asia · RSI 42 · price 0.55582
Lower highs pressing on a 0.5555 Asia low.
Yesterday's London and NY slide from 0.5613 extended into the Asia session as hot US CPI kept the dollar bid. The Asia low at 0.5555 has been tested twice under a lower-highs trendline from the 0.5570 Asia high. Price sits below the ema20 (0.5561) and ema50 (0.5565), RSI(14) is 41.7 and ATR is 4.1 pips.
Support: 0.55547, 0.5550, 0.5540
Resistance: 0.55611, 0.55654, 0.55698
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5555 asia low exposes the 0.5550 round number, then the 0.5540 friday low
Close back above the ema20 at 0.5561 and the lower-highs trendline breaks the Asia sequence
Reclaiming the ema50 near 0.5565 puts the 0.5570 asia high back in play
US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak during NY hours could materially shift this read
03:46 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 46 · price 0.55614
Lower highs inside Asian range, session low held.
The Asia session has built a 0.5555–0.5570 range below Wednesday's NY lows as the post-CPI dollar bid extends. Lower highs run from the 0.55698 session high through 0.5563, and price sits just under the ema20 at 0.55619 and the ema50 at 0.5566. The 0.55547 session low held mid-Asia, with a swing low at 0.55584 since; RSI(14) is neutral at 46 and ATR(14) is 4.2 pips.
Support: 0.55584, 0.55547, 0.5554
Resistance: 0.55619, 0.55634, 0.55698
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.55634 lower high and the 50% fib of the session high-to-low move breaks the lower-highs line
Failure to hold the 0.55584 swing low puts the 0.55547 session low back in play
A break of the session low exposes the 0.5540 19-month low zone flagged in the digest
US jobless claims and Fedspeak later Thursday could shift USD pricing ahead of the London-NY transition
The hot-CPI selloff that ran through Wednesday's NY session stalled near 0.5562. Asia rejected a spike to the 0.5570 session high and printed a session low at 0.5555. Price sits at 0.5562, about halfway back on the Asia drop: just under the ema20, with the ema50 at 0.5566 capping a chain of lower highs. RSI is neutral at 48.6 and ATR runs 4.3 pips.
Support: 0.55547, 0.5540
Resistance: 0.5562, 0.55663, 0.55698
What it said to watch
M15 close above the ema50 at 0.5566 breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 0.5570 session high back in play
Failure to hold the 0.5555 session low exposes the 0.5540 19m low zone
London open in ~3.5h is the first test of the Asian range
US jobless claims and the Fedspeak slate later Thursday could materially shift this read
03:16 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 45 · price 0.55585
Lower highs and lower lows; Asia low swept to 0.5555 and partly reclaimed.
Wednesday's slide from 0.5613, driven by the hot US CPI and Fed hike bets, carried into Asia. Asia printed a 0.5570 session high, then swept the earlier 0.5557 low to a 0.5555 session low. Price sits under the ema20 (0.5562) and ema50 (0.5566) with RSI(14) at 45 and ATR near 4.4 pips, and the Asia lower highs are intact.
Support: 0.55547, 0.5540
Resistance: 0.5562, 0.55698
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5570 session high breaks the lower-highs chain
Failure to hold the 0.5555 session low exposes the 0.5540 19m low zone
Rebounds into the ema20 at 0.5562 have capped so far; acceptance above it changes the Asia read
US jobless claims (13:30 UTC) and Fed speakers later today could materially shift this read
03:02 UTC
Downtrend, Asia bounce capped · RSI 46 · price 0.55608
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia; price retesting 0.5560 pivot.
NZD stays heavy after the hot US CPI. The kiwi slid from 0.5613 to 0.5562 across Wednesday's London and NY sessions, and the Asia spike to the 0.5570 asia high faded into lower highs and a sweep to a fresh asia low at 0.5555. Price is back at the 0.5560 pivot, below the ema20 (0.5562) and ema50 (0.5567), with RSI 45.6 and ATR 4.4 pips.
Support: 0.5560, 0.55547
Resistance: 0.55622, 0.55667, 0.55698
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the ema50 at 0.5567 breaks the Asia lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.5560 pivot exposes the 0.5555 asia low
A break of the 0.5555 asia low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5540 area
A recovery through the ema20 at 0.5562 puts the 0.5570 asia high back in view
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from London, NY range floor broken in Asia.
The Asia session's 01:00 UTC pop to the 0.5570 Asian high was rejected. Price slid through the NY range floor near 0.5561 to a fresh session low at 0.5555, extending the post-CPI dollar-led selloff. Price sits below the ema20 and ema50, with RSI(14) at 39.6 and ATR(14) expanding to 4.4 pips.
Support: 0.55547, 0.5540
Resistance: 0.55624, 0.55698
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5555 session low exposes the 0.5540 19m low zone
M15 close back above the ema20 at 0.5562 puts price back inside the prior NY range
Recapture of the 0.5570 asian high invalidates the lower-high sequence
US jobless claims 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers today could materially shift this read
02:31 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in Asian range · RSI 46 · price 0.55611
Lower highs inside a 0.5557–0.5570 Asian range.
Wednesday's hot-CPI selloff carried into the NY close, and Asia is now holding a 0.5557–0.5570 range. The 01:00 UTC spike to the 0.5570 session high was rejected the next bar, and highs have stepped lower since along the lower highs line. Price sits below ema20 (0.5563) and ema50 (0.5567), with RSI(14) at a neutral 45.6 and ATR at 4.2 pips.
Support: 0.55567, 0.5554
Resistance: 0.5563, 0.55673, 0.55698
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5557 session low exposes the 0.5554 19m low zone
Reclaim of ema50 at 0.5567 and the lower highs line puts the 0.5570 session high back in play
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers from 14:00 UTC could reprice USD and shift this read
Tight post-selloff range 0.5561–0.5570; Asia false break below NY low, then rejection at 0.5570.
The kiwi stalled near the NY low at 0.5561 after hot US CPI repricing drove Wednesday's NY selloff. In Asia it dipped to an asia low at 0.5557 and snapped back, but the spike to the asia high at 0.5570 was rejected just above ema50. Price now sits a touch under ema20, with about 57% of the Asia rebound given back, RSI(14) neutral at 48.1 and ATR 4.2 pips.
Support: 0.55611, 0.55567
Resistance: 0.55632, 0.55676, 0.55698
What it said to watch
M15 close above the asia high at 0.5570 clears ema50 and breaks the range
Failure to hold the NY low at 0.5561 brings the asia low at 0.5557 back into play; a break below it confirms a lower-low
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers through NY hours could shift this read
01:46 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in range · RSI 53 · price 0.55644
Lower highs from 0.5596; tight 0.5557–0.5570 range since NY.
Wednesday's CPI-driven slide from 0.5614 stalled into a 0.5561–0.5570 range through NY. Early Asia swept that floor to a session low at 0.5557, then a spike high at 0.5570 was rejected just above the ema50. Price sits between the ema20 (0.5563) and the ema50 (0.5568), with RSI at 53 and ATR(14) widening to 4.3 pips.
Support: 0.5563, 0.55567
Resistance: 0.55679, 0.55698
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5570 spike high and ema50 breaks the lower-highs trendline
Loss of the ema20 at 0.5563 and the 0.5557 session low resumes the downtrend toward the 0.5540 zone
US jobless claims at 13:30 UTC and Fed speakers later Thursday could materially shift this read
Lower highs from London/NY slide; Asia session printed a lower low then a failed pop.
Wednesday's hot-CPI slide extended into a fresh session low at 0.5557 early in the Asia session. The pop to the 0.5570 session high was rejected just above the ema50 at 0.5568, keeping the lower-highs line intact. Price now sits between the ema20 at 0.5563 and the ema50, RSI(14) neutral at 52, ATR expanding to 4.3 pips from 2.3.
Support: 0.55628, 0.55611, 0.55567
Resistance: 0.5568, 0.55701
What it said to watch
Break of the 0.5557 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5540 19-month-low zone
M15 close above the 0.5570 session high breaks the lower-highs line and voids the rejection read
Loss of the ema20 at 0.5563 puts the ny low at 0.5561 back in play
Fed-speaker headlines after the hot CPI remain the main driver of USD moves through Asia
01:16 UTC
Downtrend, Asia bounce testing range top · RSI 61 · price 0.55673
NY range 0.5561–0.5570; Asia false break below, reversal to top.
Asia session dipped below the NY range to a session low at 0.5557, then reversed sharply. The latest closed bar tagged the 0.5570 range top and closed above ema50 (0.5568). The CPI-driven selloff from 0.5596 still holds lower highs, with RSI(14) at 60.8 and ATR expanding to 4.2 pips.
Support: 0.55681, 0.55626, 0.55567
Resistance: 0.55701, 0.55765
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5570 range top opens the 0.5576 breakdown pt, near the 38.2% selloff fib
Slip back below ema50 0.5568 and ema20 0.5563 returns price to the prior range
Loss of the 0.5557 session low resumes the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5540 19-month lows
US Jobless Claims and heavy Fedspeak later Thursday, then NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
01:02 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating near lows · RSI 46 · price 0.55618
Lower highs from 0.5596; tight 0.5557–0.5566 base in Asia.
The London-NY selloff from 0.5596 on hot-CPI Fed repricing has left the pair pinned below the ema50 at 0.55681. Early Asia swept under 0.5560 to a 0.55567 session low, and price snapped back to sit just under the ema20. RSI(14) has recovered to 46 from 34, ATR(14) has expanded to 3.8 pips from 2.3, and the lower highs line is still capping at the 0.55655 asia high.
Support: 0.55567, 0.5540
Resistance: 0.55619, 0.55655, 0.55681
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.55655 asia high and the lower highs line breaks the intraday downtrend structure
Rejection at the ema20 keeps the consolidation below the ema50
Close below the 0.55567 session low resumes the lower-low sequence toward the 19m low near 0.5540
US Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fedspeak slate later Thursday could materially shift this read
Early Asia broke the floor of the 0.5562–0.5570 range that held after the NY selloff, printing a session low at 0.55569 as hot US CPI keeps USD bid. Price sits below the ema20 (0.55619) and the ema50 (0.55684), RSI(14) 34.5 is not yet oversold, and ATR(14) has expanded to 3.7 pips from 2.2. Lower highs at 0.55686 and 0.55655 cap rebounds.
Support: 0.55569, 0.5554
Resistance: 0.5562, 0.55655, 0.55684
What it said to watch
A close back above the 0.5562 range floor, which lines up with the ema20, would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.55569 session low exposes the 19m low zone near 0.5554
A close above the 0.55655 lower high and the ema50 at 0.55684 breaks the lower-highs sequence
US Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC) and heavy Fedspeak later today could materially shift this read
00:31 UTC
Downtrend, breaking lower in Asia · RSI 36 · price 0.55578
Lower highs since Wednesday's Asia high; late-NY range floor broken.
Early Asia has slipped below the 0.5561 range floor that held through late NY and printed a session low at 0.5557. The kiwi stays heavy after the hot US CPI, with price below both EMAs and ATR(14) expanding to 3.8 pips. RSI(14) at 36 is holding above its 31 reading at the rollover low, a mild bullish divergence against the lower price low.
Support: 0.55569, 0.5540
Resistance: 0.55611, 0.55624, 0.55688
What it said to watch
Sustained trade below the 0.5557 session low keeps the 0.5540 19m low in view
Close back above the 0.5561 range floor and the ema20 at 0.5562 marks the break as a false break
Ema50 at 0.5569 caps the decline fib structure; a reclaim would end the lower-high sequence
US Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fedspeak slate later in NY hours could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.5614; post-NY 0.5561–0.5567 range broken lower.
Lower highs since the 0.5614 Asia high carried the hot-CPI sell-off through London and NY. Early Asia has slipped out of the 0.5561–0.5567 post-NY range to a fresh session low at 0.5558, with price below both the ema20 and ema50. RSI(14) at 36.3 sits above its 31 reading at the prior 0.5559 low, so momentum is not confirming the new low.
Support: 0.55582, 0.5540
Resistance: 0.55628, 0.5567, 0.55693
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5567 range top, and through the ema50 near 0.5569, would mark the range break as a false break
Acceptance below the 0.5558 session low leaves the 0.5540 19m low as the next reference
A break above the lower highs trendline from 0.5614 would end the intraday sequence
US Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC and the Fedspeak slate later today could materially shift this read
00:02 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a tight base · RSI 45 · price 0.55632
Post-CPI flush, then a 0.5561–0.5569 range below ema50.
The hot US CPI and USD rally drove the pair down from the 0.5596 swing high to the 0.5562 range floor during NY hours. Since then it has held a 0.5561–0.5569 band, and the rollover dip to the 0.5559 session low was bought back. Early Asia session trade is pinned at ema20 with ATR(14) only 3.6 pips and RSI(14) neutral at 45.4.
Support: 0.55612, 0.55587
Resistance: 0.55633, 0.5569, 0.55956
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5559 session low resumes the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5540–0.5560 zone
Close above the 0.5569 range top and ema50 (0.55697) breaks the lower-highs line
Lower-highs line from the 0.5596 swing high remains the cap while price holds under it
US jobless claims 13:30 UTC and the Fed speaker slate from 14:00 UTC Thursday are the next USD catalysts