NZD/USD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Wednesday, 11 November 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the NZD/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
22:05 UTC
Downtrend, oversold and decelerating · RSI 26 · price 0.55609
Lower highs from Tuesday's 0.5650 peak; price back below weekly open.
The week gapped higher to a 0.5565 weekly open and rallied to 0.5650 into Tuesday's London session. Hot US CPI in Tuesday's NY session then reversed the move, and Wednesday's London-NY sell-off from the 0.5614 Asian high has pushed price below the weekly open, with EMA(20) crossing under EMA(50). RSI(14) has held 25–28 for eight bars, oversold, while ATR has compressed from 8.6 to 6.7 pips as the decline slows into late NY, with the Monday week low at 0.5553 the next reference and the Friday low at 0.5527 beyond.
Support: 0.55533, 0.55274
Resistance: 0.55654, 0.55789, 0.56139
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the weekly open at 0.5565 and EMA(20) at 0.5579 would ease the downtrend read
Break below the week low at 0.5553 exposes the Friday low at 0.5527 (19-month low zone)
Close above the Wed high at 0.5614 breaks the lower-highs trendline from Tuesday's peak
US Jobless Claims (Thu 13:30 UTC) and the Fed speaker slate could materially shift this read; Business NZ PMI follows at 21:30 UTC
Retracement of the CPI selloff stalling at the 38.2% level keeps the lower-highs structure intact
Lower highs since Tuesday's CPI reversal; trading below the weekly open.
Hot US CPI in Tuesday's NY session reversed the post-election rally. Wednesday's London-into-NY-open leg then took price below the 0.5565 weekly open to a 0.5561 day low, retracing about 70% of the Friday-to-Tuesday rally and leaving lower highs from Tuesday's 0.5650 top. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) at 0.5581 and EMA(50) at 0.5594, with RSI(14) oversold below 30 for most of the last eight hours, while ATR(14) has compressed to 7 pips as the late-NY tape stalls. Beneath the day low, Friday's close at 0.5539 marks the unfilled weekend gap, with the Friday low at 0.5527 the next reference.
Support: 0.55611, 0.55392, 0.55274
Resistance: 0.55654, 0.55808, 0.55937
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the weekly open at 0.5565 and ema20 at 0.5581 would ease the lower-highs read
Break of the 0.5561 day low exposes the friday close gap at 0.5539 and the friday low at 0.5527
Lower-highs trendline from Tuesday's 0.5650 high holds the structure until reclaimed; ema50 at 0.5594 sits just under the 0.5600 pivot
US jobless claims and a heavy Fed-speaker slate from Thu 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Business NZ PMI follows Thu 21:30 UTC
Lower high at 0.5614, lower low at 0.5561; price pinned at weekly open.
Hot US CPI on Tuesday and a broad dollar bid unwound Monday's gap-up rally from the 0.5553 Monday low to the 0.5650 week high. Wednesday's lower high at 0.5614 in Asia gave way to a London-NY slide that broke Tuesday's 0.5586 low and printed a 0.5561 day low, leaving price sitting on the 0.5565 weekly open. Price is below both EMAs after a bearish ema cross, with ema20 at 0.5583 sloping down. RSI(14) is oversold at 27.7 but has flattened near 26 for six bars, and ATR has compressed to 7.3 pips through the late NY session.
Support: 0.5561, 0.5553, 0.5527
Resistance: 0.5565, 0.5583, 0.5600
What it said to watch
An hourly close below the 0.5561 day low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5553 Monday low and the 0.5527 Friday low.
A recovery through ema20 at 0.5583 and the 0.5600 psych level would break the lower-highs line and the downtrend read.
Failure to hold the weekly open on a closing basis keeps the post-CPI leg intact, with the week high-low fib mid-zone near 0.5605 overhead.
US jobless claims Thu 13:30 UTC and a slate of Fed speakers could materially shift this read; NZ Business PMI follows Thu 21:30 UTC.
19:03 UTC
Downtrend, oversold and stalling · RSI 26 · price 0.55639
Lower highs since Tuesday's 0.5650 peak, Monday's gap fully filled.
Tuesday's hotter-than-expected US CPI turned NZDUSD lower from the 0.5650 week high. Price then printed a lower high at 0.5614 in Wednesday's Asian session. London and early NY hours drove the second leg, which broke the cpi low at 0.5586 and slipped back below the weekly open at 0.5565 to a day low of 0.5561. Price sits below a falling EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) pinned near 26 for six bars and ATR easing to 7.6 pips as the last few hours compress into a narrow band.
Support: 0.55611, 0.55533, 0.55274
Resistance: 0.55654, 0.55844, 0.55864
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the weekly open at 0.5565 and then the ema20 / cpi low cluster near 0.5584-0.5586 would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.5561 day low exposes the monday low at 0.5553, then the friday low at 0.5527 (19-month low)
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 13:30 UTC and a heavy slate of Fed speakers could materially shift this read
Business NZ PMI Thu 21:30 UTC is the next NZD-side catalyst against the lower-high trendline
18:03 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 26 · price 0.55645
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's 0.5650 week high.
The Monday rally off Friday's 0.5527 low peaked at 0.5650 early in Tuesday's London session. Waller's speech and then the hot US CPI beat reversed it, leaving lower highs at 0.5650 and 0.5614, and Wednesday's London and NY sessions carried price back to the 0.5565 weekly open with a 0.5561 Wed low. EMA(20) has crossed below EMA(50), price sits beneath both, and RSI(14) is oversold at 25.6, while the 38.2% fib of the decline from the week high sits near 0.5595, just above EMA(20) at 0.5587.
Support: 0.55611, 0.55533, 0.55274
Resistance: 0.55654, 0.55866, 0.56139
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.5565 weekly open and EMA(20) at 0.5587 would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.5561 Wed low exposes the 0.5553 Monday low, then the 0.5527 Friday low
RSI(14) has held 25-26 for four bars while price edged lower; a higher RSI low on a fresh low would mark bullish divergence
Thu US jobless claims (13:30 UTC) and Fed speakers including Williams and Daly could materially shift this read
A break above the 0.5614 lower high would end the lower-highs trendline read
Lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's week high; price back below weekly open.
The election gap-up rally from Sunday's 0.55654 week open topped at 0.56495 early Tuesday. The CPI reversal began after the hot US print and extended through Wednesday's London-NY slide. NY hours added the steepest leg, putting price back below the week open with the day low at 0.5562 a fresh lower low under the 0.56139 lower high. Price sits beneath a falling EMA(20) at 0.5589 and EMA(50) at 0.55989, with RSI(14) at 25.8 oversold and ATR steady near 8 pips, so the decline has been a grind rather than a volatility spike.
Support: 0.5562, 0.55533, 0.55392
Resistance: 0.55654, 0.5589, 0.56139
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.55654 week open would mark the first recovery of the week's gap
Reclaim of the EMA(20) at 0.5589 would break the sequence of lower highs; the 0.56139 lower high caps above
Failure to hold the 0.5562 day low exposes the 0.55533 week low, then the 0.55392 prior close (full gap fill)
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 13:30 UTC and Fedspeak from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Business NZ PMI Thu 21:30 UTC is the next NZD-side driver
Lower highs from Tuesday's 0.5650 peak; election rally almost fully retraced.
Sunday's post-election gap and Monday's rally peaked at 0.5650 in Tuesday's London session. The hot US CPI print then drove a steady reversal through NY hours. Asia's bounce stalled at a 0.5614 lower high, and the NY open today extended the slide to a 0.5562 session low, just under the 0.5565 weekly open and roughly 90% back through the election rally fib. Price sits below both EMAs after EMA(20) crossed under EMA(50), with RSI(14) at 25.5 in oversold territory. ATR is steady near 8 pips, so the drop has been orderly rather than a volatility spike.
Support: 0.55621, 0.55533, 0.55392
Resistance: 0.55654, 0.55916, 0.56139
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.5565 weekly open and then ema20 at 0.5592 would ease the downtrend read
A lower-highs trendline break above the 0.5614 lower high would signal the sequence is failing
Failure to hold the 0.5562 session low exposes the 0.5553 monday low and the 0.5539 fri close, completing the weekend gap fill
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 13:30 UTC plus the Fedspeak slate could extend or reverse the USD leg
Business NZ PMI Thu 21:30 UTC is the next NZD-specific risk for this read
15:04 UTC
Downtrend, oversold into the weekly open · RSI 26 · price 0.55663
Lower highs from Tuesday's week high; London-led breakdown extending into NY.
Monday's election-gap rally from the 0.5565 weekly open topped at 0.5650 at Tuesday's London open. The hot US CPI print then broke the 0.5600 area during NY hours. Wednesday's Asia bounce stalled at the 0.5614 Asia high, and the London session and first hours of NY drove a fresh leg to a 0.5562 day low, putting price back on the weekly open and below a now down-sloping EMA(20) at 0.5595 and EMA(50) at 0.5602. RSI(14) has slid from 51 to an oversold 25.9 through Wednesday, while ATR has edged up from 7.7 to 8.6 pips as the drop from the week high accelerated.
Support: 0.55654, 0.55621, 0.55533
Resistance: 0.55945, 0.56018, 0.56139
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5562 day low leaves the weekly open behind and exposes the 0.5553 monday low, with the 0.5527 friday low beneath
Recovery above ema20 (0.5595) and ema50 (0.5602) would break the lower highs sequence; the 0.5614 asia high caps above that
Oversold RSI(14) with no divergence yet; a higher RSI low on a retest of 0.5562 would mark momentum fading
US Initial Jobless Claims (Thu 13:30 UTC) and a dense run of Fed speakers through Thursday could materially shift this read
Lower highs below falling EMAs after the post-CPI low broke.
The week gapped up on the election result, and the rally from the 0.5553 Monday low peaked at 0.5650 early Tuesday. Hot US CPI then broke it below 0.5600, and the bounce stalled at a lower high near 0.5614. Today's London session cleared the 0.5586 CPI low and extended into the 78.6% retracement of the rally, with the session low at 0.5570 sitting just above the 0.5565 weekly open. Price holds below a falling EMA(20) at 0.5598, now crossed under the EMA(50) at 0.5603, while RSI(14) at 30.1 presses the lower bound without being oversold.
Support: 0.55701, 0.55654, 0.55533
Resistance: 0.55864, 0.55977, 0.56139
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.5586 CPI low and the ema20 at 0.5598 would mark a false break and stall the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the session low at 0.5570 and the weekly open at 0.5565 exposes the Monday low at 0.5553
A move through the 0.5614 lower high invalidates the trendline read
RSI(14) slipping below 30 would register oversold conditions on this timeframe
US jobless claims and Fedspeak from 13:30 UTC Thu, then core PPI on Fri, could materially shift USD pricing
Lower highs and lower lows from 0.5650; week's rally retraced past 61.8%.
Monday's election rally from the gap-up week open near 0.5565 peaked at 0.5650 in Tuesday's London session. Waller's comments and the hot US CPI print then reversed it, and today's London session pushed to a fresh day low at 0.5583, below Tuesday's post-CPI trough and past the 61.8% fib of the week's rally. Price sits below EMA(20) at 0.5600 and EMA(50) at 0.5605 after a fresh bearish ema cross, with the 0.5614 lower high defining the descending trendline; RSI(14) at 35 is soft but not oversold, and ATR easing to 8 pips points to a grind rather than an impulse.
Support: 0.55826, 0.55533, 0.55274
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56045, 0.56139
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.5600 ema20 and the 0.5605 ema50 would stall the lower-high sequence
A break of the 0.5614 lower high and the descending trendline invalidates the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 0.5583 day low exposes the 0.5553 week low, with the 0.5527 friday low below
US jobless claims Thu 13:30 UTC and the Fed speaker slate could extend the CPI-driven USD move
Business NZ PMI Thu 21:30 UTC is the next NZ-side risk for this read
12:03 UTC
Short-term downtrend from Tuesday's week high · RSI 36 · price 0.5587
Lower high at 0.5614, marginal lower low at 0.5583.
NZD/USD has given back most of Monday's election-driven gap-and-rally. Tuesday's London push stalled at the 0.5650 week high, and the hot US CPI print then drove a NY-session slide to 0.5586. The Asia rebound was rejected at 0.5614, a lower high, and London has since printed a marginal session low at 0.5583. Price sits below the ema20 at 0.5602 and the EMA(50) at 0.5605 after EMA(20) crossed under EMA(50), and it is trading just under the 61.8% level of the Monday rally fib. RSI(14) at 35.7 has not undercut its post-CPI trough near 32, a marginal bullish divergence, while ATR has compressed from 10.2 to 8.2 pips.
Support: 0.5583, 0.5565, 0.5553
Resistance: 0.5602, 0.5614, 0.5650
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5583 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5565 weekly open and the 0.5553 monday low
Recovery above the ema20 at 0.5602 and the 0.5614 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and neutralises the downtrend read
US jobless claims (Thu 13:30 UTC) and heavy Fedspeak through Williams at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Business NZ PMI on Thu 21:30 UTC and Fri US PPI are the next scheduled risks to the structure
11:04 UTC
Downtrend, lower low printed in London · RSI 38 · price 0.55912
Monday rally fully retraced; lower high then lower low.
Monday's post-election run from the 0.5553 Monday low to Tuesday's 0.56495 week high has been fully unwound. Waller's hawkish remarks in Tuesday's London session and the hot US CPI into the NY open drove the drop, and today's London slide to a 0.55826 session low undercut Tuesday's post-CPI trough. Price sits below both EMA(20) and EMA(50), and EMA(20) has now crossed under a flattening EMA(50). The Asia high at 0.56139 stalled just short of the 50% retracement of the week-high leg, forming a lower high. RSI(14) at 38.2 has lifted off 32.8 without a fresh extreme, while ATR(14) has compressed to 8.1 pips from 10.4 after CPI.
Support: 0.55826, 0.55654, 0.55533
Resistance: 0.56033, 0.56139, 0.56495
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.55826 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.55654 weekly open and the 0.5553 Monday low
Failure to reclaim the 0.5600 pivot and ema20 at 0.56033 keeps the downtrend read intact
A close above the 0.56139 Asia high breaks the lower-high trendline and neutralises the sequence
NZ card spending today and Business NZ PMI Thu 21:30 UTC could materially shift this read
US jobless claims Thu 13:30 UTC and core PPI Fri 13:30 UTC are the next USD-side catalysts
10:04 UTC
Downtrend, lower high below EMAs · RSI 33 · price 0.55857
Lower high at 0.5614 after week high rejection; testing CPI low.
NZDUSD has unwound most of Monday's rally from the 0.5565 week open after the 0.5650 week high was rejected in Tuesday's London session, with the hot US CPI print driving the NY session drop to the 0.5586 cpi low. Wednesday's Asia bounce stalled at the 0.5614 asia high, a lower high just above EMA(20), and London has pressed price back to the cpi low with EMA(20) now crossed below a flattening EMA(50). RSI(14) at 32.8 sits near but not in oversold territory, and ATR has compressed from 10 to 8 pips through the bounce.
Support: 0.55864, 0.55654, 0.55533
Resistance: 0.56046, 0.56139, 0.56495
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5586 cpi low confirms a lower low and exposes the 0.5565 week open, then the 0.5553 monday low
Recovery through ema20 at 0.5605 and the 0.5614 asia high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Close back above the 0.5650 week high invalidates the downtrend read
NZ card spending today and Thursday's Fedspeak could materially shift this read
Lower high at 0.5614 below 0.5650 week high, pressing CPI low.
The Monday-Tuesday rally from the 0.5553 week low topped at 0.5650 in Tuesday's London session. Waller's hawkish remarks and the hot US CPI print then drove a reversal into NY hours, down to the 0.5586 cpi low, roughly a 61.8% retracement of the week's advance. Wednesday's Asia bounce stalled at 0.5614, the asia high, just above the ema20 at 0.5607, which has now crossed below the ema50. London has since pulled price back to 0.5595, with RSI(14) at 38.7 after peaking near 51 and ATR compressing from about 10 to 7.8 pips.
Support: 0.55864, 0.55654, 0.55533
Resistance: 0.56067, 0.56139, 0.56495
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5586 cpi low extends the lower-high sequence and exposes the 0.5565 weekly open, then the 0.5553 week low
Recovery back above the ema20 and the 0.5614 asia high breaks the lower-high trendline and neutralises the post-CPI read
Thursday 13:30 UTC jobless claims and heavy Fedspeak, plus Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Friday 13:30 UTC US PPI is the swing input for 25 vs 50bp Fed pricing
0.5650 week high remains the cap of this week's range
The election-driven gap up at the 0.5565 weekly open ran to a 0.5650 week high by Tuesday's London open. Waller, then the hot US CPI in the NY session, reversed most of it to a 0.5586 cpi low, just past the 61.8% of the Mon-Tue rally fib. The Asia bounce stalled at the 0.5614 asia high, marking a lower high just above the flat, converged EMA(20)/EMA(50) near 0.5608, with price now back below both, RSI(14) at 41 off a 32 trough and ATR(14) compressing from 10.4 to 7.9 pips.
Support: 0.55864, 0.55654
Resistance: 0.56079, 0.56139, 0.56495
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 and the 0.5614 asia high breaks the lower highs line
Loss of the 0.5586 cpi low exposes the 0.5565 weekly open, where Monday's gap began
US Initial Jobless Claims and Fedspeak Thu 13:30 / 23:30 UTC could shift the read
Business NZ PMI Thu 21:30 UTC is the next NZD-side catalyst
07:03 UTC
Post-CPI pullback, now consolidating · RSI 46 · price 0.56054
Lower high below 0.5650; Asia range under flat EMAs.
The election-result gap at the 0.5565 week open and Monday's rally carried NZDUSD to a 0.5650 week high at Tuesday's London open. Hot US CPI then knocked it to a 0.5586 CPI low, just beyond the 61.8% retracement of that leg. The Asia session has since compressed in a 0.5603-0.5614 band beneath flat, converged EMA(20)/EMA(50) near 0.5609, with RSI(14) recovering from 32 to the mid-40s and ATR easing to 7.7 pips. The lower highs off the week high frame the post-CPI structure, and the 0.5600 psych pivot near the 50% level is the immediate floor.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55864, 0.55654
Resistance: 0.56089, 0.56139, 0.56495
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the ema20 and the 0.5614 Asia high would break the lower-highs sequence and open a path toward 0.5640-0.5650
Failure to hold the 0.5600 psych pivot exposes the 0.5586 CPI low, then the 0.5565 week open gap
Thursday's US jobless claims and Fedspeak, then Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
06:02 UTC
Range after CPI sell-off, momentum flat · RSI 48 · price 0.56068
Post-CPI higher lows inside 0.5600-0.5614 Asian range, capped by flat EMAs.
Monday's election gap from the 0.5565 weekly open ran to a 0.5650 week high in London on Tuesday. Waller and the hot US CPI print then drove a 63-pip NY-session slide to the 0.5586 CPI low, close to the 61.8% retracement of the week's advance. Since then price has compressed into a 0.5600-0.5614 Asian range with higher lows, sitting just under the flat EMA(20) and EMA(50) near 0.5609, with RSI(14) at 48 and ATR easing to 7.8 pips.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55864, 0.55654
Resistance: 0.56093, 0.56139, 0.56495
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5614 asia high clears the ema20/EMA(50) cap near 0.5609 and opens a retest toward the 0.5650 week high
Failure to hold the 0.5600 round number and a break of the 0.5586 cpi low exposes the 0.5565 weekly open
A break of the post-CPI higher-lows line ends the Asian consolidation read
NZ card spending today and Business NZ PMI Thu 21:30 UTC could shift the 0.5600 pivot
US Jobless Claims Thu 13:30 UTC and the Fedspeak cluster could break the Asian range
61.8% retracement held; tight range above 0.5600 with flat EMAs.
The election gap and Monday's steady rally carried NZDUSD from 0.5553 to the 0.5650 week high into Tuesday's London open, where Waller's hawkish remarks triggered a rejection. The hot US CPI print in Tuesday's NY session extended the drop to the 0.5586 cpi low, just past the 61.8% retracement of the week's rally. Price has since rebuilt above the 0.5600 psych level, with RSI(14) back to 51 from 32. It now sits just above a flat ema20 and EMA(50), capped by the asia high at 0.5614, as ATR compresses to 7.9 pips.
Support: 0.56095, 0.5600, 0.55864
Resistance: 0.56139, 0.5633, 0.56495
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the ema20 and the 0.5600 psych level exposes the cpi low at 0.5586
A break of the recovery lows trendline ends the post-CPI higher-low sequence
Hourly close above the asia high at 0.5614 opens the cpi shelf at 0.5630, with the week high at 0.5650 above
NZ card spending today, then US jobless claims and Fed speakers Thu 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
04:02 UTC
Post-CPI pullback, flat EMAs · RSI 46 · price 0.56062
Lower high under week high; consolidation above 0.5600.
Waller's hawkish remarks in Tuesday's London session, then the hot US CPI print in the NY session, knocked price from the 0.5650 week high to a 0.5586 CPI low. That move retraced about 50% of the election rally off 0.5527, and RSI(14) bottomed at 32 without reaching oversold. The Asian session rebound has stalled at the 0.5614 asian high, a lower high just above a flattening EMA(20) and EMA(50) near 0.5609, with the close below both and RSI back at 45.8 while the 0.5600 psych pivot holds underneath.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55864, 0.55654
Resistance: 0.56139, 0.56495
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5614 asian high and back over both EMAs breaks the post-CPI lower-high sequence and reopens the 0.5650 week high
Failure to hold the 0.5600 psych pivot exposes the 0.5586 cpi low, then the 0.5565 week open from Monday's gap
US jobless claims and Fedspeak from Thu 13:30 UTC, then Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher-low rally broken by CPI; rebound retesting flat EMA cluster below the broken low.
The week opened with a gap up to 0.5565 after the NZ election, and the climb through Monday and Tuesday's Asia session ran to a 0.5650 week high at Tuesday's London open. Hot US CPI drove the dominant reversal in Tuesday's NY session. Price broke the 0.5616 broken low and printed a 0.5586 CPI low, just past the 61.8% retracement of the week's rally. Price has since recovered the 0.5600 psych level and sits marginally above a flattening EMA(20) at 0.56096 and EMA(50) at 0.56087, with RSI(14) back at 50 from 32 and ATR compressing to 7.9 pips.
Support: 0.56096, 0.5600, 0.55864
Resistance: 0.56164, 0.56292, 0.56495
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 0.5616 broken low reopens the 0.5629 waller shelf, the post-Waller floor that gave way at CPI, and the 0.5650 week high
Loss of the ema20 and the 0.5600 psych level puts the 0.5586 cpi low back in play
NZ Oct card spending (Wed) and Business NZ PMI (Thu 21:30 UTC) could shift the NZD side of this read
US jobless claims Thu and PPI Fri 13:30 UTC are the USD-side risk to the post-CPI structure
Week high rejected, CPI low holding, price coiling on flat EMAs.
Monday's gap higher and election bounce off the Friday low ran to a week high at 0.5650 at Tuesday's London open. The hot US CPI print then drove a 63-pip NY-session slide to the CPI low at 0.5586, breaking Monday's rising trendline. Price has since rebuilt through the Asia session to sit just above a flattening ema20 and EMA(50) near 0.5610, at the 38.2% of the CPI drop fib, with RSI(14) back from 32 to just under 50 and ATR compressing to 8.3 pips.
Support: 0.56096, 0.55864, 0.55274
Resistance: 0.5618, 0.5629, 0.56495
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 50% fib at 0.5618 and the Tuesday shelf at 0.5629 reopens the week high at 0.5650
Failure to hold the ema20 near 0.5610 puts the CPI low at 0.5586 back in play; a break there exposes the Friday low at 0.5527
NZ card spending today and Business NZ PMI Thu 21:30 UTC could materially shift this read
US jobless claims Thu and PPI Fri, both 13:30 UTC, are the next USD tests
Post-CPI drop to 50% retracement, flat consolidation under EMA cluster.
The election gap at Sunday's weekly open extended the rally from Friday's 0.5527 payrolls low, but supply showed up at the 0.5650 week high at Tuesday's London open. Waller's remarks started the slide, and the hot US CPI took it to the 0.5586 cpi low in NY hours. That low sits at the 50% retracement and broke Monday's rally trendline. Since then price has compressed between 0.5597 and 0.5608 through the Asia session, just below EMA(20) at 0.56095 and EMA(50) at 0.56085. RSI(14) has recovered to 46 from 32 and ATR has eased to 8.4 pips.
Support: 0.55864, 0.5574, 0.55654
Resistance: 0.56095, 0.56373, 0.56495
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 at 0.56095 reopens the 0.5637 monday high, with the 0.5650 week high above
Failure to hold the 0.5586 cpi low exposes the 61.8% fib at 0.5574 and the weekly open near 0.5565
Falling EMA(20) is 1 pip above EMA(50); an ema cross lower would confirm the post-CPI pullback
NZ October card spending (Wed) and Business NZ PMI (Thu 21:30 UTC) could reprice RBNZ odds and shift this read
US jobless claims Thu 13:30 UTC and PPI Fri 13:30 UTC carry USD event risk
Monday impulse retraced ~61.8%, now recovering below the EMA cluster.
The Monday impulse ran from the 0.5553 low after the weekly open into London on Tuesday at a 0.5650 week high, where RSI(14) touched 70. Waller's 50bp hint and the hot October CPI then unwound it to a 0.5586 CPI low during NY hours, roughly a 61.8% retracement of the move. Price has edged back to the 0.5600 psych area at 0.5606. It still sits below the EMA(20) at 0.5610 and the EMA(50) at 0.5609, with the EMA(20) rolling down into a flat EMA(50) and RSI(14) recovering only to 46.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55864, 0.55654
Resistance: 0.56099, 0.5630, 0.56495
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20/ema50 cluster near 0.5610 would turn the CPI low into a higher-low read
Failure to hold 0.5600 psych and the 0.5586 CPI low exposes the weekly open at 0.5565
Recovery through the 0.5630 breakdown area from Waller's bar reopens the 0.5650 week high
NZ card spending (Wed) and Thursday's US jobless claims plus Fed speakers could materially shift this read