NZD/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Monday, 12 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the NZD/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:47 UTC
Downtrend, early Asia bounce · RSI 57 · price 0.55877
Lower highs from London, base forming above 0.5582 day low.
London broke the Asian range low near 0.5602 and stepped lower all day as oil-driven risk-off and a firm USD weighed, flattening into a 0.5583–0.5587 band through NY. The rollover printed a thin-volume day low at 0.55822, and early Asia has bounced to 0.55892, the fib 38.2% of the 0.56006 swing high to day low leg, with price capped just under EMA50.
Support: 0.55822, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55892, 0.55963, 0.56006
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.55892 (fib 38.2%) and the 50% at 0.5591 puts the 0.55963 lower high in play
Failure to hold the 0.55822 day low exposes the 0.5580 17m low
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, around London open, could materially shift this read
Hold above 0.56006 swing high would break the intraday lower-high sequence
23:32 UTC
Downtrend, flattening into early Asia · RSI 56 · price 0.55873
Lower highs all Monday; tight 0.5582–0.5589 base.
NZDUSD ground lower through London and NY as oil-driven haven USD demand pushed it through the 0.5600 round number. Price is now basing just above the 0.5580 17-month low. The rollover low at 0.5582 held, but the early Asia bounce stalled at the 0.5589 asia high, which sits on the 23.6% retracement of the 0.5612–0.5582 down-move fib.
Support: 0.55822, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55892, 0.55937, 0.5600
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5582 rollover low puts the 0.5580 17m low in play and resumes the lower-low sequence
Acceptance above the 0.5589 asia high opens the 38.2% fib at 0.5594, then the 0.5600 round number
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC could break the current tight range; US CPI Wed is the larger risk
Lower highs and lower lows through Monday, now a tight early-Asia base at 0.5582–0.5589.
Monday printed a steady run of lower highs that took NZDUSD about 37 pips off the 0.5619 Asia high, with oil-driven risk-off and firm USD demand behind it. The 0.5582 rollover low held just above the 0.5580 17-month low. The early Asia session is boxed between that low and the 0.5589 Asian high, and the bounce has stalled at the 23.6% retracement of the Monday decline.
Support: 0.55822, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55892, 0.55963, 0.5600
What it said to watch
Break of the 0.5582 rollover low and the 0.5580 17-month low would resume the lower-low sequence
M15 close above the 0.5589 Asian high clears the 23.6% retracement and exposes the 0.5596 lower high, then 0.5600 round number
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, then US CPI on Wed, could materially shift USD-driven flows
Lower highs from Asia into NY, now a tight 0.5583–0.5589 band.
London broke the Asian range low near 0.5602. The NY session then extended the London-NY leg to a 0.5583 session low, after a rejection at the 0.5600 psych retest, as oil and Middle East risk-off lifted the USD. Since late NY, price has compressed into a 6-pip band (0.5583 to a 0.5589 band top) in early Asia, with RSI near 46 and ATR about 2 pips.
Support: 0.55829, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55892, 0.5594, 0.5600
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5583 session low exposes the 0.5580 round number, the 17-month low area
A close above the 0.5589 band top (23.6% of the London-NY leg) opens the 0.5594 London low
A move back to the 0.5600 psych retest would challenge the lower-high sequence
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
22:47 UTC
Downtrend, stalling near the lows · RSI 59 · price 0.55879
Lower highs into a flat 0.5583–0.5587 base; early-Asia bounce off the day low.
Monday's slide broke the Asian low and the 0.5600 round number in London, then ground lower through NY to a 0.5582 day low at the rollover as oil-driven risk-off kept USD bid. Early Asia has bounced to a 0.5589 session high, with the 0.5596 swing high (38.2% fib of the 0.5619–0.5582 decline) capping above and the 0.5580 17-month low just under the day low.
Support: 0.55822, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55892, 0.55963, 0.5600
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5596 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 0.5600 round number
Failure to hold the 0.5582 day low puts the 0.5580 17m low in play
Rejection at the 0.5589 session high keeps the base read intact
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) could shift USD tone into the London open
Lower highs from 0.5612; tight base 0.5582–0.5589 in early Asia.
Monday's Asian range (0.5602–0.5619) broke lower in London. NY extended the lower-high sequence to 0.5583 as oil-driven risk-off kept USD bid. Early Asia is bouncing off the 0.5582 rollover low but stalling at the 0.5589 asia high, with the 0.5580 17m low just below.
Support: 0.55822, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55892, 0.5594, 0.5600
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5582 rollover low puts the 0.5580 17m low in play
M15 close above the 0.5589 asia high opens a retest of the 0.5594 london low and the 0.5600 round number
Lower highs trendline near 0.5596 caps the day decline fib 38.2% area
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and Wednesday's US CPI could materially shift this read
22:17 UTC
Downtrend, stalling near lows · RSI 61 · price 0.55882
Lower-high chain from 0.5619; tight 0.5583–0.5589 base since mid-NY.
Monday's slide ran from the 0.5619 Asian high through London and NY in a chain of lower highs, driven by oil-led risk-off and a firm USD, before stalling into a 0.5583–0.5589 base. A rollover dip set a fresh session low at 0.5582 just above the 17-month low at 0.5580; the Asia open pop is now testing the range top at 0.5589, the 38.2% fib of the decline from 0.5600.
Support: 0.55822, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5589, 0.55963, 0.56006
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5582 session low puts the 17-month low at 0.5580 in play
Hold above the 0.5589 range top extends the bounce toward the 0.5596 lower high; a close above that breaks the lower-high chain
0.5600 round number capped the last London-session bounce
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC, around London open, could shift USD tone
22:03 UTC
Downtrend, stalled into tight base · RSI 47 · price 0.55861
Lower highs/lower lows from Asian range break, flat 4-pip range since 16:30 UTC.
London broke the Asian range low at 0.5602 and NY extended the selloff to 0.5583 as oil-driven risk-off kept USD bid. Since 16:30 UTC price has compressed between the 0.5583 range low and 0.5587 range top, just above the 17m low at 0.5580. The 21:00 rollover spike to 0.5582 was bought back. RSI(14) is neutral near 47 and ATR is shrinking.
Support: 0.5583, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5587, 0.5591, 0.5600
What it said to watch
Close above 0.5587 range top exposes the 0.5591 prior low, near the 23.6% retrace of the selloff
Failure at the 0.5583 range low puts the 0.5580 17m low in play and extends the lower-low chain
Reclaim of the 0.5600 round number would neutralise the intraday downtrend
Fed's Waller at 07:45 UTC Tuesday could shift USD tone ahead of Wednesday's CPI
21:47 UTC
Downtrend, stalled in a tight range · RSI 45 · price 0.55846
Lower highs from London; late-NY compression above the day low.
London broke below the Asian range (0.5602–0.5619). A lower-high chain at 0.5601 and the 0.5596 swing high then carried price to 0.5583 by late NY, as oil-driven risk-off kept USD bid. Late NY and early Asia have compressed into a ~4-pip box below the 0.5587 range top. The thin-rollover day low at 0.5582 sits just above the 0.5580 17-month low.
Support: 0.55822, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55868, 0.55963, 0.56006
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5580 17-month low extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 0.5587 range top ends the compression; reclaiming the 0.5596 swing high (38.2% of the asia high–day low fib) and the 0.5601 lower high breaks the chain
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) around London open could shift this read ahead of Wednesday's US CPI
21:32 UTC
Downtrend, stalled into rollover · RSI 43 · price 0.5584
Lower highs from Asian high, tight post-NY range above 17m low.
Lower highs held from the Asian high at 0.5619 through London and NY. The London-NY leg broke the 0.5594 london low and stalled at 0.5583 as oil-driven USD demand persisted. Since then price has held a 4-pip range up to the 0.5587 range top, with the rollover probe to the 0.5582 session low sitting just above the 0.5580 17m low. RSI(14) is neutral near 43.
Support: 0.55822, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55868, 0.5594, 0.5600
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5582 session low and the 0.5580 17m low extends the lower-low sequence
Break of the 0.5587 range top toward the 0.5594 london low (38.2% of the London-NY leg) would signal a deeper retracement, with 0.5600 psych above
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
21:17 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalled into late NY · RSI 34 · price 0.55833
Lower highs and lower lows from the 0.5619 Asian high; flat 0.5583–0.5587 base since mid-NY.
London open broke the Asian low near 0.5601, and NY extended the slide in a lower-high/lower-low chain to 0.5583 as oil-driven risk aversion and a firm USD weighed. Late NY went flat in a tight 0.5583–0.5587 base, and the rollover bar has wicked to a fresh session low at 0.55822 in thin trade, just above the 0.5580 17-month low. RSI(14) is near 34.
Support: 0.55822, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55868, 0.55963, 0.56015
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5580 17-month low extends the lower-low sequence into fresh territory
Recovery above the 0.5587 range top ends the post-NY base; the 0.5596 lower high, aligned with the 38.2% fib of the Asian high-to-session low move, sits above
Reclaiming the 0.5601 Asian low would undo the London breakdown
Thin rollover liquidity into the Asia session can distort wicks around the session low
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) near London open could shift the USD tone
21:05 UTC
Downtrend, stalled into a late-NY base · RSI 42 · price 0.55858
Lower highs and lower lows through London and NY, then a tight 0.5583–0.5587 base.
The decline from 0.5612 printed lower highs through London and NY. It broke the 0.5592 Asian low and reached a 0.5583 session low, 3 pips above the 0.5580 17-month low, as oil-driven USD demand persisted. Since mid-NY, price has compressed into a 0.5583–0.5587 base, with RSI(14) near 42 and ATR(14) about 1.6 pips heading into the Asia session.
Support: 0.55829, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55868, 0.55925, 0.55963
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5583 session low puts the 0.5580 17-month low in play
Recovery through the 0.5587 base top and back above the 0.5592 Asian low would stall the lower-high sequence; 0.5596 lower high is next
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) could shift USD tone around the London open, with Wednesday's CPI as the larger risk
Lower highs from 0.5619 Asia high; tight late-NY range above session low.
Capped at the 0.5600 round number into the London-NY transition, the pair broke the Asian low at 0.5592 during NY hours as oil-driven USD demand weighed, printing a session low at 0.5583. Since 16:30 UTC it has compressed in a 0.5583–0.5587 range just above the 17-month low at 0.5580, with RSI(14) neutral near 46 and ATR(14) down to ~1.6 pips.
Support: 0.55829, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55868, 0.55924, 0.5600
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5583 session low exposes the 0.5580 17-month low
M15 close above the 0.5587 range top opens a retest of the 0.5592 Asian low, which lines up with the 38.2–50% zone of the NY sell-off fib
Reclaiming the 0.5600 round number would break the day's lower-high chain
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and Wednesday's US CPI could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain from Asia peak; tight late-NY range above session low.
Asia set 0.55924–0.56192, then London and NY printed successive lower highs, broke the Asian low and reached a 0.55829 session low as oil-driven risk aversion and a firm USD weighed on the kiwi. Since then price has compressed into a 3-pip-wide 0.55834–0.55867 band below EMA20, with the 17m low at 0.5580 about 5 pips under the session low.
Support: 0.55829, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55867, 0.55924, 0.55976
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.55829 session low puts the 0.5580 17m low in play
Close above the 0.55867 range top and reclaim of the 0.55924 asian low would interrupt the lower-high sequence
Lower high at 0.55976, near the 50% fib of the 0.56122–0.55829 leg, caps any bounce
Fed's Waller speaks Tue 07:45 UTC; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
20:03 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 43 · price 0.55852
Lower highs/lows from Asian high, flat late-NY range.
The weekend gap was filled during Asia, but NZD/USD then stepped lower from the 0.5619 Asian high through London and NY on oil-driven risk aversion and a firm USD. It broke the Sunday gap low at 0.5593 and set a session low at 0.5583, just above the 0.5580 17m low. Late NY has compressed into a 4-pip band capped by the range top at 0.5587, where the lower-highs line also sits; RSI(14) is near 43 and ATR is about 1.5 pips.
Support: 0.55829, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55867, 0.55925, 0.56006
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5583 session low exposes the 0.5580 17m low
Close above the 0.5587 range top breaks the lower-highs line and ends the compression
Reclaim of the 0.5593 gap low would negate the NY breakdown; the 0.5600 round number caps above
Thin Asia session liquidity next; Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC) are the next USD catalysts
19:32 UTC
Downtrend, stalled into late NY · RSI 42 · price 0.5585
Lower highs from 0.5600, tight 3-pip range above session low.
After a weekend gap lower, the Asian bounce to 0.5619 faded. London broke the Asian range low near 0.5602, and NY printed lower highs off the 0.5600 ny high. The London-NY drop ran through the 0.5591 breakdown to a session low at 0.5583 as oil-driven USD demand persisted. Since then price has compressed below a 0.5587 range top, just above the 0.5580 17m low, with ATR shrinking.
Support: 0.55829, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55866, 0.55908, 0.56006
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5583 session low puts the 0.5580 17m low in play
Close above the 0.5587 range top and the 0.5591 breakdown, through the lower-high trendline, would weaken the downtrend read
Retrace into the 38-50% zone of the London-NY drop (0.5594–0.5598) below the ny high keeps lower highs intact
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC and fresh Middle East/oil headlines could materially shift this read ahead of Wed US CPI
19:18 UTC
Downtrend, stalled in late NY · RSI 43 · price 0.5585
Lower highs from Asia high; Asian low broken, tight base near 0.5583.
After topping at the 0.5619 Asian high, NZDUSD ground lower through London and NY on oil-driven risk aversion and a firm USD. It broke the 0.5592 Asian low and printed a 0.5583 session low. Late NY has compressed into a 3-pip band under the 0.5587 range top, just above the 17-month low at 0.5580, with ATR down to under 2 pips.
Support: 0.5583, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5587, 0.5592, 0.5600
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5583 session low exposes the 17-month low at 0.5580
Reclaim of the 0.5592 asian low would neutralise the range break
Rebound into the 0.5597–0.5600 round number zone (38.2% fib of the asia high-session low leg) is where lower highs last formed
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Asia; tight late-NY range after break.
The weekend gap filled in Asia at 0.5619, then London printed lower highs at 0.5612 and 0.5601 as oil-driven risk aversion and a firm USD weighed. Early NY broke the 0.5591 broken low to a session low at 0.5583. Price has since compressed in a ~3-pip range below the 0.5586 range top, just above the 0.5580 17-month low, with the lower-highs trendline now meeting price.
Support: 0.55829, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55863, 0.55908, 0.56006
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5583 session low exposes the 0.5580 17-month low
A move back above the 0.5586 range top and the 0.5591 broken low breaks the lower-highs trendline
0.5601 lower high (fib 50%) caps any recovery while the downtrend holds
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 0.5600 gave way; tight box above session low.
Oil-driven risk aversion and a firm USD kept a lower-highs chain intact once London broke the 0.5600 round number. NY then extended through the 0.5591 breakdown pivot to a 0.5583 session low. Since London close price has compressed into a 3-pip box (0.5583–0.5586 box top) just above the 17-mo low at 0.5580, with RSI(14) near 33 and ATR under 2 pips.
Support: 0.5583, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5586, 0.5591, 0.5600
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5583 session low puts the 0.5580 17-mo low in play
Close back above the 0.5586 box top and the 0.5591 breakdown pivot, through the lower-highs line, would neutralise the downtrend read
Recovery of the 0.5600 round number invalidates the London-NY lower-highs sequence
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) ahead of Wed US CPI could shift USD tone during London
18:33 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalled late NY · RSI 34 · price 0.5585
Lower-high chain from Asian high, flat 3-pip box above session low.
Lower highs from the 0.5619 Asian high carried NZDUSD through the 0.5592 Sunday open low during NY hours, as oil-driven risk aversion kept the USD bid. Since 16:45 UTC, price has compressed in a 3-pip box above the 0.5583 session low, just above the 0.5580 17m low. The flat drift is now pressing against the descending trendline. RSI(14) near 34 and ATR(14) near 2 pips show stalled momentum rather than an oversold extreme.
Support: 0.55829, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55925, 0.5600
What it said to watch
Break of the 0.5583 session low brings the 0.5580 17m low into play
A close back above the 0.5592 open low and the descending trendline would break the lower-high chain
A recovery toward the fib 38.2% at 0.5597 and the 0.5600 psych level would test where the London-session selling began
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
18:27 UTC
Downtrend, stalling in late NY · RSI 32 · price 0.55847
Lower highs from NY open; Asian low broken, tight base above session low.
The pair broke the Asian low at 0.5592 during NY hours on oil-driven risk aversion and a firm USD in holiday-thinned trade. The NY leg ran from the 0.5601 NY high to a 0.5583 session low. Since then it has compressed into a 0.5583–0.5587 range top box after London close, with ATR shrinking to about 2 pips.
Support: 0.55829, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55866, 0.55924, 0.56006
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5583 session low exposes the 0.5580 17m low
Recovery back above the 0.5592 Asian low would mark the breakdown as a false break
Range top at 0.5587 and the NY lower-highs line near 0.5590: area to watch for rejection or break
Fed's Waller Tue 07:45 UTC could shift the read into London; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger risk
18:03 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 31 · price 0.55844
Lower-high chain from Asian high, late-NY tight range above 0.5580.
A steady lower-high chain from the 0.5619 Asian high saw London break the Asian low and NY extend to a 0.5583 session low. Oil-driven risk aversion and a firmer USD drove the slide in thin holiday trade. Late NY is compressing in a 3-pip band just above the 0.5580 17-month low, with RSI(14) near 31 and ATR(14) around 2 pips.
Support: 0.55829, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55863, 0.55963, 0.56006
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5583 session low exposes the 0.5580 17-month low
Close above the 0.5586 minor high and the lower-high line breaks the sequence; the 0.5596 lower high is next
Reclaiming the 0.5601 NY high would bring the 50% retrace of the Asian-high decline into play
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) ahead of Wed US CPI could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain since London; tight base above the 0.5583 session low.
London broke the Asian range low and the 0.5600 round number. NY then extended the lower-high chain to a 0.5583 session low as oil-driven risk aversion firmed the USD in thin holiday trade. Late in the NY session price is basing just above the 0.5580 17-month low, with RSI(14) near 33 and the 0.5586 bounce high capping.
Support: 0.55829, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55863, 0.55963, 0.5600
What it said to watch
Loss of the 0.5583 session low exposes the 0.5580 17-month low
M15 close above the 0.5596 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and the downtrend read
The 0.5600 round number aligns with the 61.8% retracement of the decline fib
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) and Middle East/oil headlines could shift this read
17:32 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through London and NY · RSI 30 · price 0.55839
LH/LL chain from the 0.5612 06:30 UTC high; 0.5600 and the 0.55925 gap low both lost.
Lower highs from 0.5612 carried through London, where 0.5600 psych gave way, and NY broke the Sunday gap low at 0.55925 as oil-driven risk aversion firmed the USD. Late NY in holiday-thin trade has price pressing the 0.5583 session low, just above the 0.5580 17m low, with RSI(14) near 30.
Support: 0.55829, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55863, 0.55925, 0.5600
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.5583 session low and the 0.5580 17m low extends the lower-low chain
A close above the 0.5586 minor high and back over the 0.55925 gap low breaks the lower-high trendline
A recovery above 0.5600 psych, near the 61.8% decline fib, invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Oil and Middle East headlines remain the main intraday driver. Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) is the next scheduled risk
Lower-high/lower-low chain since London open; NY range floor broken.
London opened with a drop from 0.5612 and NY broke below the 0.5591 broken low near London close. That printed a 0.5583 session low as oil-driven risk aversion firmed the USD. Price is stalling late in NY just above the 0.5580 17-month low, with trendline resistance and fib 38.2 converging near 0.5594.
Support: 0.55829, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55908, 0.55941, 0.5600
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5591 broken low would put price back inside the NY range and stall the lower-low chain
Close above trendline resistance and fib 38.2 near 0.5594 opens the 0.5600 round number
Failure to hold the 0.5580 17-month low extends the downtrend into fresh lows
Fed's Waller (Tue 07:45 UTC) ahead of Wed US CPI could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower; LH/LL chain through London and NY.
London broke the Asian low at 0.56015 and NY extended to a 0.55829 session low, with every bounce capped under the falling trendline from 0.56122. The lower high at 0.55963 sits near the 50% fib of that leg. Oil-driven risk aversion and a firm USD are behind the slide, and price now sits just above the 0.5580 17m low after London close.
Support: 0.55829, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5591, 0.55963, 0.56015
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5580 17m low confirms a fresh leg lower
Recovery through the 0.55963 lower high breaks the LH/LL sequence and the trendline read
Asian low at 0.56015 marks the top of the breakdown and the 61.8% fib zone
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
16:47 UTC
Downtrend, oversold into NY afternoon · RSI 24 · price 0.55839
Lower highs from Asia peak, fresh session low.
A lower-high chain from the 0.56192 Asia-session peak ran through London and NY. Price broke the Sunday low at 0.55925 and printed a session low at 0.55835 as a firm USD and oil-driven risk aversion weighed in thin US-holiday trade. RSI(14) near 24 is stretched, but the descending trendline off 0.56122 still caps, with the 17m low at 0.5580 only 4 pips below.
Support: 0.55835, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55925, 0.55963, 0.56006
What it said to watch
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift USD tone within the next bar
A break of the 0.5580 17m low extends the lower-low chain
An M15 close above the 0.55963 lower high breaks the descending trendline
A reclaim of the 0.55925 Sunday low would turn the break into a false break; the 38.2% fib at 0.5597 sits just above
A move back through psych 0.5600 negates the session's lower-high sequence
Lower highs since London open; midday shelf broken.
The weekly open gap filled in Asia, with the high at 0.56192. London then broke the Asian low near 0.5602 and printed a lower-high sequence off 0.56006, and the 0.5593–0.5600 shelf gave way at 15:00 UTC to a new session low at 0.55844. Oil-led risk aversion and a firm USD in thin holiday trade frame the slide; RSI(14) is near 28 and ATR is about 2.7 pips.
Support: 0.55844, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55908, 0.56006
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.55908 broken low (fib 38.2%) puts the breakdown in question
Close above the 0.56006 lower high breaks the descending lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.55844 session low exposes the 0.5580 17m low
Fed Hammack at 16:50 UTC could materially shift this read in thin holiday liquidity
LH/LL chain from the Asian high; Asian range broken lower in London, extended in NY.
After the weekend gap filled in Asia, NZDUSD has printed lower highs from the 0.5619 Asian high. London broke the 0.5600 psych level and NY took out the 0.5591 broken low, with oil-driven risk aversion and a firm USD behind the slide. The session low at 0.5584 now sits just above the 0.5580 17m low, RSI(14) is near 29 and ATR(14) is a thin ~2.6 pips in holiday-light trade.
Support: 0.55844, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55908, 0.55963, 0.5600
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5591 broken low would stall the lower-low sequence
Break of the descending trendline and the 0.5596 lower high would end the LH chain from 0.5600 psych
Loss of the 0.5584 session low exposes the 0.5580 17m low
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could materially shift this read
Sequence of lower highs since Asia, session low just broken.
The open's gap lower was filled and capped at the 0.5619 Asian high, then London and NY ground lower in a lower-high chain. That leg took out the 0.5591 broken low to a 0.5584 session low as oil-driven risk aversion lifted the USD. RSI(14) near 26 with the 17m low at 0.5580 just below; US holiday liquidity is thin late in NY hours.
Support: 0.55844, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55908, 0.55963, 0.56006
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5584 session low exposes the 17m low at 0.5580
M15 close back above the 0.5591 broken low and the lower-highs trendline (~0.5593) undercuts the breakdown read
Close above the 0.5596 lower high and 0.5601 swing high, near the 38.2% fib at 0.5598, breaks the lower-high chain
Fed Hammack at 16:50 UTC and Waller Tue 07:45 UTC could shift USD tone into Wednesday's CPI
Lower highs/lower lows since pre-London peak, fresh session low in NY.
A chain of lower highs from the 0.5612 pre-London peak has walked NZD through the Sunday gap low at 0.5592 into the NY session, with oil-driven risk aversion keeping USD bid. Price sits at 0.5586, about 6 pips above the 17-month low at 0.5580. RSI(14) is near 29 and ATR is under 3 pips in thin US-holiday liquidity.
Support: 0.5580, 0.5555
Resistance: 0.55924, 0.55963, 0.56006
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5592 gap low would turn the break into a false break
M15 close above the 0.5596 lower high breaks the trendline of lower highs
A clean break of the 0.5580 17-month low leaves 0.5555 as next support
A recovery through the 0.5601 swing high unwinds the NY-session leg
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could jolt USD in thin holiday trade
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian high; fresh session low.
London and the London-NY transition extended a chain of lower highs from the 0.5619 Asian high. The weekend gap low at 0.5592 has given way and price now sits at a 0.5589 session low, with RSI(14) near 29. The move tracks oil-led risk aversion and a firm USD in thin US-holiday trade, and the 17m low at 0.5580 sits 9 pips below.
Support: 0.5589, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55963, 0.5600, 0.56192
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5589 session low puts the 0.5580 17m low in play
M15 close above the 0.5596 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Reclaim of 0.5600 psych would re-open the 38.2% retrace of the move from the Asian high
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could jolt USD in holiday-thin liquidity
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.56122 swing high; Asian range lost below 0.5600.
Since London open, NZDUSD has slipped below the Asian range floor and psych 0.5600, with oil-driven risk aversion keeping the USD firm and each bounce capped at a lower high under the descending trendline. Price is now pressing the 0.55908 session low late in the London-NY transition, with RSI(14) near 38 and ATR around 3 pips in thin holiday liquidity.
Support: 0.55908, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55963, 0.56006, 0.56122
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.55908 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5580 17m low
M15 close above the 0.55963 lower high breaks the descending trendline and pauses the downtrend read
Reclaim of psych 0.5600 puts price back inside the Asian range, with the 0.56122 swing high as the next cap
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could jolt the USD leg in thin holiday trade
LH/LL chain since Asian high, compressing above day low.
Pair has sold off from the 0.5619 Asian high through London and early NY, with oil-driven risk aversion and a firm USD keeping a lid on each bounce. The midday rejection at the 0.5601 swing high set a lower high, and the NY session printed a fresh day low at 0.5591, with ATR near 3 pips in thin holiday trade.
Support: 0.55908, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55976, 0.56006, 0.56192
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5598 lower high and falling trendline breaks the LH sequence; 0.5601 swing high caps beyond that
Failure to hold the 0.5591 day low exposes the 0.5580 17m low
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift USD tone into thin holiday liquidity
Lower highs and lower lows since 06:30 UTC, compressing near session low.
Monday's Sunday-open gap down was filled in Asia. Price has since stepped lower through London from the 0.5612 pre-ldn high, as oil-driven risk aversion and a firm USD weighed. A new session low at 0.5591 printed early in a thin, US-holiday NY session, just under the gap low, and price is now pressing the descending lower-highs line near 0.5596 with RSI(14) neutral around 44.
Support: 0.55908, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55976, 0.56006, 0.56122
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5598 lower high breaks the descending lower-highs line
Close above the 0.5601 swing high ends the lower-high sequence and opens the 0.5612 pre-ldn high
Failure to hold the 0.5591 session low exposes the 0.5580 17m low, about 15 pips away
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC is low impact; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger event risk for this read
LH/LL chain since London open; NY probing below Sunday gap low.
Oil-driven risk aversion and a firm USD in holiday-thin trade have kept NZDUSD in a steady LH/LL grind from the 0.56192 Asia high. The descending trendline caps rallies. NY dipped to a 0.55908 session low, a brief sweep of Sunday's 0.55925 gap low, while the 0.55976 lower high and 0.56006 swing high hold; RSI(14) near 44 shows no oversold extreme.
Support: 0.55908, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55976, 0.56006, 0.56192
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.55908 session low exposes the 0.5580 17m low
M15 close above the 0.55976 lower high and 0.56006 swing high breaks the descending trendline and the LH chain
Recovery through the 38.2–50% retrace (0.5602–0.5605) of the Asia high move points back toward 0.56192
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC; thin US-holiday liquidity today exaggerates small moves
14:17 UTC
Downtrend, grinding into day low · RSI 42 · price 0.55937
Lower highs/lower lows since Asian high, Asian range low broken.
Monday gapped lower. Asia rallied to 0.56192, then London turned it into a steady lower-high chain and broke the Asian range low near 0.5602. Price is pressing the day low at 0.55925 in thin, US-holiday NY hours, with oil-driven risk aversion weighing on NZD, the 0.5600 psych level capping, the descending trendline in place and RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 0.55925, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.56006, 0.56062
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.55925 day low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 17m low at 0.5580
Close back above 0.5600 psych and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain; the lower high at 0.56062 is next above
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could jolt a thin holiday session
14:03 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 42 · price 0.55944
Lower highs since 06:30 UTC; tight 0.5593–0.5598 box above the session low.
The weekly open gapped lower and the Asia rebound stalled at the 0.5619 Asia high. Since then, oil-driven risk aversion and a firmer USD have produced a chain of lower highs under the descending line, the latest at 0.5601. Price is compressing just above the 0.5593 session low and the 0.5592 gap low, with RSI(14) near 42 and ATR around 3 pips in thin US-holiday trade.
Support: 0.55931, 0.55924, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.56006, 0.56062, 0.56192
What it said to watch
M15 close above the descending line and the 0.5601 lower high breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.5593 session low and 0.5592 gap low exposes the 0.5580 17m low
A reclaim of the 0.5606 fib 50% is needed before the 0.5619 Asia high comes back into view
Fed Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift this read in thin holiday volume
13:47 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 42 · price 0.55953
Lower-high chain since 06:30 UTC; Asian range low broken in London.
After a weekend gap lower, London broke the Asian range low near 0.5601 and kept printing lower highs into NY. Oil-driven USD demand and thin US-holiday volume are behind the move. The session low at 0.5593 nearly retested the Sunday gap low, and price is compressing just under the 0.5600 lower high with RSI(14) near 42 and ATR(14) under 3 pips.
Support: 0.55931, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.56006, 0.56062, 0.56192
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.5601 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain, with the 50% fib at 0.5606 next
Failure to hold the 0.5593 session low exposes the 0.5580 17m low
The asian high at 0.5619 marks the top of the day's range and the fib anchor
Fed Hammack at 16:50 UTC on thin holiday liquidity could shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asia high, now retesting the gap low.
Monday opened with a gap down from Friday's 0.5613 close. After the 0.5619 Asia high, London and early NY printed a clean lower-high chain (0.5612, 0.5606, 0.5601) and are now retesting the gap low near 0.5593 as an oil-driven risk-off move and a firm USD weigh. With a US holiday thinning NY, RSI(14) at ~43 is not stretched and ATR is only ~3 pips.
Support: 0.55925, 0.5590, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.56006, 0.56122, 0.56192
What it said to watch
Sustained trade below the 0.5592 gap low exposes the 0.5590 round number and the 17-month low at 0.5580
An M15 close above the 0.5601 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Reclaiming the 0.5612 swing high would put the 0.5619 asia high back in focus
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could jolt thin holiday liquidity
Lower highs and lower lows from the Asian high, compressing above the gap low.
London extended the slide from the 0.56192 Asian high, breaking the Asian low near 0.5602 as oil-driven risk aversion lifted the USD. Lower highs at 0.56122 and 0.56006 cap price, and early NY is grinding in a 7-pip box just above the Sunday gap low at 0.55925 in thin US-holiday trade.
Support: 0.55925, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.56006, 0.56122
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56006 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and opens the 0.56122 swing high
Failure to hold the 0.55925 gap low exposes the 0.5580 17-month low
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could jolt USD in holiday-thin liquidity
13:04 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 39 · price 0.5595
LH/LL chain below the Asian range, 0.5600 capping.
London broke the 0.5602 Asian low and the 0.5600 psych level, extending a lower-high chain down from the 0.5619 Asian high. The 12:00 UTC retest of 0.5600 met rejection and printed a new session low at 0.5593 as oil-driven risk aversion firmed the USD in thin holiday trade. RSI(14) sits near 39, not oversold.
Support: 0.55931, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56062
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.5606 london high, through the lower-highs trendline, breaks the LH chain
Failure to hold the 0.5593 session low exposes the 0.5580 17m low
Hammack speaks at 16:50 UTC; thin US-holiday liquidity can exaggerate moves
Acceptance back above 0.5600 psych puts the move back inside the Asian range
Lower-high chain from the Asia peak pressing the week low.
Lower highs since the 0.5619 Asia peak have pulled NZD/USD back to the 0.5592-0.5593 week low in thin early NY trade, with oil-driven risk aversion and a firmer USD weighing. The noon bounce stalled at the 0.5600 lower high, which sits at the 38.2% fib of the London leg, and RSI(14) is near 42 with ATR around 2.6 pips.
Support: 0.55925, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.56006, 0.56087
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5592 week low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5580 17m low
M15 close above the 0.5600 lower high breaks the lower highs line, with the 0.5609 london high next above
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC; US holiday liquidity is thin, so moves may be exaggerated
Lower highs and lower lows since the London open; Asian range broken lower.
London faded from the 0.5612 London high, broke the 0.5602 Asian low and printed a 0.5594 swing low as higher oil and Middle East risk aversion lifted the USD. The 11:30 UTC bounce stalled at the 0.5600 round number near the 38.2% fib, and price is back on the swing low in thin, holiday-affected trade near the London-NY transition.
Support: 0.5594, 0.55924, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56015, 0.56122
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5594 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5592 sunday low, then the 0.5580 17m low
Reclaim of the 0.5600 round number and the 0.5602 Asian low breaks the lower-high trendline
Close above the 0.5612 London high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift USD tone in thin US-holiday conditions
Lower highs from 0.5612 into a 0.5594 session low; price retesting Friday's low from below.
Monday's early 0.5619 high faded into London, which built a lower-high sequence from the 0.5612 swing high and the 0.5606 lower high. That leg broke Friday's 0.5601 prior low and set a 0.5594 session low, with oil-driven risk-off weighing on NZD. The bounce into the London-NY transition is stalling at that prior low, which also sits on the 38.2% retracement. Liquidity is thin with US markets on holiday, and ATR is only about 2.5 pips.
Support: 0.5594, 0.55924
Resistance: 0.56012, 0.56062, 0.56122
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5601 prior low and the 0.5603 50% retracement would neutralise the lower-high read and put the 0.5606 lower high back in play
Failure at 0.5601 followed by a break of the 0.5594 session low exposes the 0.5592 gap low from the weekly open
A move through the 0.5612 swing high would void the session's descending structure
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and oil/Middle East headlines could shift this read in thin holiday trade
Lower highs and lower lows through London, trading below the Asian range low.
The Sunday gap lower was filled in Asia up to the asia high at 0.5619. London then reversed from the pre-ldn high at 0.5612 and broke the Asian low near 0.5602, grinding to a 0.5594 session low as oil-driven risk-off weighed on NZD. Price sits just above the 0.55925 gap low, with RSI(14) near 39 and ATR compressed to about 2.4 pips in thin US-holiday trade.
Support: 0.5594, 0.55925
Resistance: 0.5601, 0.56122, 0.56192
What it said to watch
A break below the 0.55925 gap low extends the London lower-low sequence
Recovery above the 38.2% fib at 0.5601 (0.5600 round number) breaks the lower-high chain
Back above the pre-ldn high at 0.5612 negates the intraday downtrend
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC in thin holiday liquidity could jolt the NY session range
11:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through London · RSI 39 · price 0.55963
Asian range low broken, grinding lower just above the session low.
Monday opened with a gap down from Friday's 0.5613 close. London then broke the Asian low at 0.56015 and the 0.5600 round number, printing a session low at 0.5594 just above the 0.55925 gap low, with lower highs intact from the 06:30 high at 0.56122 and RSI(14) near 39. Oil-driven risk-off keeps NZD heavy in thin US-holiday trade.
Support: 0.5594, 0.55925, 0.5585
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56015, 0.56122
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5600 round number and the 0.56015 Asian low would break the lower-highs trendline and neutralise the downtrend read
Failure at the 0.5594 session low and 0.55925 gap low exposes the 0.5585 YTD low
Recovery through the 0.56122 06:30 high would negate the London leg; 50% fib sits near 0.5603
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC into a holiday-thinned NY session could shift this read
11:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 38 · price 0.55965
Lower-high/lower-low chain from the 0.5619 Asian high, pressing week-open low.
After the weekend gap lower and an Asian rebound to 0.5619, NZD has sold off through London in a chain of lower highs from the 0.5612 swing high, with oil-driven risk-off and a firm USD weighing. Price now sits below the 0.5600 round number, a pip above the 0.5594 session low and 3 pips above the 0.5592 open low (Sunday's gap-open trough). US holiday liquidity is thin and ATR is only ~2.5 pips.
Support: 0.5594, 0.55924
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56062, 0.56122
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5592 open low extends the lower-low sequence beyond the week-open range
Reclaim of the 0.5600 round number and a break of the 0.5606 lower high would end the lower-highs chain
Retrace into the 0.5612 swing high would test the full London decline
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and oil/Middle East headlines could shift this read in thin holiday trade
NZD/USD has stair-stepped lower through the London session from the 0.5612 swing high. It cut the 0.5600 round number and is printing lower highs along a falling trendline. Price is now probing the 0.5592 gap low from the Sunday open, with RSI(14) near 27, as oil-driven risk-off keeps the Kiwi heavy in thin US-holiday trade.
Support: 0.55924, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56122, 0.56192
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.5592 gap low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5580 18m low
A close back above the 0.5600 round number and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high chain
A recovery through the 0.5607 50% retrace of the Asian high selloff would shift focus to the 0.5612 swing high and the 0.5619 Asian high
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC, with US markets on holiday and thin NY liquidity, could jolt this read
Lower highs since 06:30 UTC; below 0.5600 psych and Friday low.
London open broke the 0.5600 psych and Friday's low. Price is extending the London leg lower from the 0.5612 pre-London high to 0.5596, and RSI(14) at ~34 is soft but not oversold. Oil-driven risk-off is weighing on NZD in thin US-holiday trade, and the Monday gap-open Asian low at 0.5592 is the next reference.
Support: 0.55924, 0.5585
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56062, 0.56122
What it said to watch
Break below the 0.5592 Asian low exposes the 0.5585 YTD low
M15 close back above the 0.5600 psych, then the 0.5606 lower high, would stall the London leg
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift the USD side in thin holiday liquidity
Lower highs since Asia top, Asian low broken in London.
After filling the weekend gap, Asia topped at 0.5619 and London has stepped down through the asian low near 0.5602 and the 0.5600 psych, leaving lower highs at 0.5612 and 0.5606 and a session low at 0.5597. RSI(14) near 34 with ATR under 3 pips points to a slow bleed rather than a flush, consistent with oil-driven risk-off weighing on NZD in thin US-holiday trade.
Support: 0.55969, 0.55925
Resistance: 0.56015, 0.56062, 0.56122
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.5602 asian low would turn the London break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5597 session low exposes the 0.5593 open low from the Sunday gap
Close above the 0.5606 lower high breaks the lower-highs chain; 0.5612 swing high caps the trendline
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could jolt USD in otherwise thin NY hours
Lower highs below Asian range low, London pressing under 0.5600.
London broke the Asian low at 0.5602 and has ground lower beneath a lower-high sequence from 0.5612, printing a london low at 0.5597 with RSI(14) near 31 and ATR down to about 3 pips. Oil-driven risk-off keeps NZD heavy in thin US-holiday trade.
Support: 0.5597, 0.55925, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.56015, 0.56062, 0.56122
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.5602 asian low puts price back inside the Asian range and weakens the range break read
A close above the 0.5606 swing high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Failure to hold the 0.5597 london low exposes the 0.5593 gap low from the Sunday open, then the 0.5580 nov-25 low
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift USD tone into the NY session
10:17 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower in London · RSI 31 · price 0.55977
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.5619 Asia high; Asian low and 0.5600 broken.
Mid-London, NZDUSD has slipped below the asian low at 0.5601 and the 0.5600 round number, printing a session low at 0.5597 under a sequence of lower highs from the 0.5612 swing high. Oil-driven risk-off and firm US yields keep the Kiwi heavy, though US-holiday volumes are thin and ranges are compressed (ATR under 3 pips).
Support: 0.5597, 0.55924, 0.5585
Resistance: 0.56015, 0.56062, 0.56122
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5606 lower high and the London lower-highs trendline invalidates the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the asian low at 0.5601 would turn the 0.5600 break into a false break; that zone also sits near the 38.2% of the London leg
Failure to hold the 0.5597 session low exposes the 0.5592 open low, then the 0.5585 ytd low
RSI(14) near 31 with no oversold extreme yet; momentum still aligned with the lower lows
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift USD tone into the NY session
10:03 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia open · RSI 29 · price 0.55977
Lower-high/lower-low chain from 0.5619, below 0.5600.
London has extended Monday's slide from the 0.5619 Asia high. A lower high at the 0.5612 swing high fed a grind below the 0.5600 psych level to around 0.5597, with RSI(14) near 29 as oil-driven risk-off weighs on NZD in thin holiday trade. The falling trendline off the 06:30 UTC high is capping each bounce, and the Sunday open low at 0.5592 is the next reference below.
Support: 0.55924, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56122, 0.56192
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5600 psych level and the falling trendline would stall the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 0.5592 open low exposes the 0.5580 nov-25 low
Reclaim of the 0.5612 swing high invalidates the intraday downtrend read; 0.5619 asia high is the session cap
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC; US/Japan holidays leave NY liquidity thin
Lower highs from Asia high, tight base at 0.5600 inside Asian range.
Lower highs from the 0.5619 asia high (0.5612, then 0.5606) have walked NZDUSD back to the 0.5600 psych handle mid-London, now below Friday's 0.5601 low as oil-driven risk-off weighs on the Kiwi. Bars have compressed to about 3 pips just above the 0.5599 london low, with the US holiday thinning liquidity.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55988, 0.55925
Resistance: 0.56062, 0.56122, 0.56192
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5599 london low and 0.5600 psych exposes the 0.5593 open low from the Sunday gap
Close above the 0.5606 lower high and the asia high trendline near 0.5608 breaks the lower-high chain
Reclaim of the 0.5612 swing high, near the 61.8% asia high fib, negates the intraday downtrend read
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC during holiday-thin NY hours could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the Asian high; London broke the Asian low.
London took out the 0.5602 Asian low and is pressing the 0.5600 round number, with the session low at 0.5599. The descending trendline from the 0.5619 Asian high through the 0.5612 lower high is intact, and oil-driven risk-off plus firm US yields keep NZD heavy. Holiday-thin liquidity is holding ATR near 3 pips.
Support: 0.55989, 0.55925
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56015, 0.56122
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5602 asian low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5599 session low exposes the 0.5593 gap low from the Sunday open
Close above the 0.5612 lower high breaks the descending trendline
US, Japan and Canada holidays thin NY follow-through; Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift USD
Lower highs since Asian high, London pressing session lows near 0.5600.
The weekend gap down to 0.5592 was bought into the 0.5619 Asian high, short of filling Friday's 0.5613 close. A lower-high chain has formed since then: 0.5612 swing high, then 0.5605 lower high. London broke the 0.5602 Asian low and is stalling at the 0.5599 session low, on oil-driven risk-off and a firm USD. RSI(14) at 41 and a 3-pip ATR show a slow grind, with liquidity thin during the US holiday.
Support: 0.55989, 0.55924
Resistance: 0.56046, 0.56122, 0.56192
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.56046 lower high breaks the descending sequence and the trendline read
Acceptance below 0.55989 session low exposes the 0.55924 gap low
Recovery above the 0.56122 swing high would put the 0.56192 asian high back in play
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could jolt USD in thin holiday trade
08:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 40 · price 0.55997
London open broke below Asian low, pressing 0.5600.
Monday gapped lower from Friday's 0.5613 close. Asia ranged 0.5593–0.5619 before printing lower highs at 0.5610 and 0.5612. Early London broke the asian low at 0.56015 and is grinding on 0.5600, with the session low at 0.55996, as the oil-driven risk-off tone weighs on NZD in thin US-holiday trade.
Support: 0.55996, 0.55925, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.56015, 0.56122, 0.56192
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.56015 asian low would mark the London break as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.55996 session low exposes the 0.55925 Sunday gap low, then the 0.5580 nov-25 low
Lower-highs trendline from the 0.56192 asian high via the 0.56122 swing high caps the drop from the asian high; a break above it neutralises the sequence
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC is the next scheduled USD risk in thin holiday conditions
08:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 37 · price 0.56009
Lower highs at 0.5619 and 0.5612, price pressing the 0.5600 session low.
The Sunday gap lower filled early in Asia, but the rally stalled at the 0.5619 asian high. London capped at a lower 0.5612 london high and has pushed price back to the 0.5600 session low, which is also Friday's low. Oil-driven risk-off is weighing on NZD in holiday-thin trade.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55924
Resistance: 0.56062, 0.56122, 0.56192
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5600 session low exposes the 0.5592 gap low from the Sunday open
Recovery above the 0.5606 swing high and the lower-high trendline breaks the intraday sequence; 0.5612 london high sits above
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC; thin US holiday liquidity can exaggerate moves at the 0.5600 round number
08:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 37 · price 0.56004
Lower highs 0.56192 → 0.56122, pressing 0.5600.
The weekend gap from 0.55925 filled into a 0.56192 Asian high, then faded. Early London set a lower high at 0.56122 and is now pressing the 0.5600 round number, with RSI(14) near 37. NZD stays heavy on oil-led risk-off in thin US-holiday trade.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55925
Resistance: 0.56122, 0.56192
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5600 round number exposes the 0.55925 gap low
Recovery above the 0.56122 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and holiday-thin liquidity could distort session ranges
07:47 UTC
Intraday drift lower, lower highs since Asia · RSI 37 · price 0.56029
Lower highs from 0.5619 Asian high, flat floor at 0.5601–0.5602 Friday low.
The weekly-open gap to 0.5592 was filled into the 0.5619 Asian high. Since then the pair has printed lower highs, and the London open faded from the 0.5609 London high back onto the 0.5601–0.5602 Friday low, which has now been tested three times. RSI(14) near 37 and ATR around 3 pips fit a thin, holiday-affected Monday, with oil-driven risk aversion weighing on NZD.
Support: 0.56012, 0.55925
Resistance: 0.56087, 0.56122, 0.56192
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5601 Friday low exposes the 0.5592 gap low
Recovery above the 0.5612 swing high breaks the descending lower-highs line from the Asian high
A close back above the 0.5609 London high would neutralise the London-open fade
Fed Hammack 16:50 UTC and Middle East/oil headlines could shift the read in thin holiday liquidity
Lower highs since the Asian high, lows holding near 0.5602.
The weekend gap down to the 0.5593 gap low filled in early Asia. Supply then capped price at the 0.5619 Asian high and again at a lower high of 0.5612, and the London open pushed back into the 0.5602 swing low, matching Friday's low, with RSI(14) near 42 under both EMAs. Oil-driven risk aversion is weighing on NZD into a holiday-thinned US session.
Support: 0.56015, 0.55925
Resistance: 0.56122, 0.56192
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.5601 swing low exposes the 0.5593 gap low
Close above the 0.5612 lower high breaks the lower-high line and reopens the 0.5619 Asian high
Fed Hammack at 16:50 UTC in thin holiday liquidity could jolt the London-NY transition
07:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs from Asian high · RSI 40 · price 0.56027
Lower highs at 0.5619 and 0.5612 over a flat floor at the Friday low.
London open rejected the 0.5612 lower high, which sat at 61.8% of the session drop from the 0.5619 Asian high. Price slid straight back to retest the 0.5601 Friday low, which has now held twice. Oil-driven risk aversion keeps NZD heavy in holiday-thin trade, with RSI(14) near 40 and ATR about 3 pips.
Support: 0.5601, 0.5592
Resistance: 0.5612, 0.5619, 0.5622
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5601 Friday low breaks the twin-low floor and exposes the 0.5592 gap low from the Monday open
Close above the 0.5612 lower high voids the lower-high sequence; the 0.5619 Asian high and the 0.5622 rebound cap sit above
Fed Hammack (16:50 UTC) and Middle East oil headlines could materially shift this read
07:03 UTC
Sideways, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 49 · price 0.56073
0.5602–0.5619 range, lower-high sequence inside it.
Monday's open gapped down to the 0.5592 gap low, then rallied into the 0.5619 prior high, matching Friday's top, where it was rejected. The Asia session then printed lower highs down to the 0.5602 Asia low, and the bounce stalled at a 0.5612 lower high near the 61.8% retracement, leaving price at 0.5607 into London open as oil-driven risk aversion weighs on NZD.
Support: 0.56015, 0.55924
Resistance: 0.56122, 0.56192, 0.5622
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5602 Asia low breaks the range floor and exposes the 0.5592 gap low
Close above the 0.5612 lower high clears the descending trendline and reopens the 0.5619 prior high
A break of the 0.5619 prior high puts the 0.5622 rebound cap from the macro digest next in line
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and oil/Middle East headlines could shift the range read during NY hours
Asian range 0.5602–0.5619 after weekend gap fill; lower highs since 01:00 UTC.
Monday Asia opened with a gap down to 0.5592 (gap low) on Middle East oil-driven risk-off, filled it inside the first hour and capped at the 0.5619 Asian high, level with Friday's top. The drift lower held the 0.5602 swing low near Friday's low. The rebound into the London open is meeting rejection at 0.5612, the 61.8% fib of the 0.5619–0.5602 leg.
Support: 0.56015, 0.55924
Resistance: 0.56122, 0.56192, 0.5622
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5612 (61.8% fib) opens the 0.5619 Asian high, with the 0.5622 rebound cap from the digest just beyond
Failure to hold the 0.5602 swing low exposes the 0.5592 gap low
London open within the next bar may set the session range direction
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and Waller Tue 07:45 UTC ahead of Wed CPI could shift USD tone
Lower highs from 0.5619 session high; late-Asia bounce from 0.5602 testing the 50% retrace.
The weekend gap down to the 0.5592 gap low filled within the first hour. Asia then set a 0.5619 session high and faded to a 0.5602 swing low as oil-driven risk aversion weighed on NZD. Into London open, the bounce is pressing the 0.5610 50% fib with RSI(14) near 53 and price back above ema20, inside the 0.5601–0.5619 range.
Support: 0.56081, 0.56015, 0.55924
Resistance: 0.56104, 0.56148, 0.56192
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 50% fib and a close back below ema20 bring the 0.5602 swing low back into play, with the 0.5592 gap low beneath
M15 close above the 0.5615 lower high breaks the Asia lower-high sequence and reopens the 0.5619 session high
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC and oil/Middle East headlines could shift the read during NY hours
Asia lower-high sequence after a double top at 0.5619; price sitting on the 0.5601 session low.
Monday's gap down to the 0.5593 gap low filled into a rejection at Friday's 0.5619 high, forming a double top. Asia has printed lower highs since, down to a 0.5601 session low that sits on Friday's low and the double top neckline. Late in the Asian range, price is pressing the descending trendline with RSI(14) near 45 and ATR only about 2 pips, while oil-driven risk aversion keeps NZD heavy.
Support: 0.56015, 0.55925
Resistance: 0.56097, 0.56192
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5601 session low (Friday low / double top neckline) confirms the break and exposes the 0.5593 gap low
Close above the 0.5610 lower high, near the 50% fib, breaks the Asia lower-high sequence and invalidates the descending trendline read
London open within the hour is likely to expand the roughly 2-pip ATR
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC today; US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the larger risk to this read
05:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 32 · price 0.56029
Lower highs and lower lows off the 0.5619 session high, pressing Friday's NY low.
NZD stayed heavy through Asia on the oil-driven risk-off. After the weekend gap filled, the 0.5619 session high capped price, and lower highs at 0.5615 and 0.5610 have carried it back to the 0.5601 session low, which matches Friday's NY-hours low. RSI(14) sits near 32, not yet oversold, and ATR is about 2.7 pips heading into London open.
Support: 0.56015, 0.5600, 0.55925
Resistance: 0.56097, 0.56148, 0.56192
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5601 session low and the 0.5600 round number extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5593 gap low
Close above the 0.5610 lower high breaks the descending trendline and neutralises the intraday downtrend read
Recovery stalling near the 61.8% of the session high retrace (~0.5612) keeps the lower-high sequence intact
London open liquidity could test the 0.5601 session low quickly given the compressed Asian ranges
Fed's Hammack (16:50 UTC) and oil/yield headlines could shift USD tone later today
05:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 30 · price 0.56024
Lower-high/lower-low chain off 0.5619 session high, testing Friday low.
Monday opened with a ~10-pip gap below Friday's close and a dip to the 0.5592 asia low. Asia then rallied to the 0.5619 session high, but a lower-high chain has since pulled price back to 0.5602, at the 61.8% of the asia rally fib and just above the 0.5601 friday low, with RSI(14) near 30 as oil-driven risk aversion keeps NZD heavy.
Support: 0.5601, 0.5592
Resistance: 0.5610, 0.5613, 0.5619
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5601 friday low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5592 asia low
M15 close above the 0.5610 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 0.5613 gap fill in play, with the 0.5619 session high above
London open in ~1.5h is the next volatility window; Fed's Hammack speaks at 16:50 UTC
05:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend from Asia high · RSI 31 · price 0.56045
Lower highs and lower lows since 0.5619, weekend gap filled.
The Sunday gap down to the 0.5592 gap low filled quickly, and Asia printed a high at 0.5619. Since then the Asia session has run a steady lower-high, lower-low sequence, now at 0.5604 near the 61.8% of the Asia rally fib, with the 0.5601 Friday low just below. Oil-driven risk aversion keeps NZD heavy; RSI(14) is near 31 and ATR is about 2 pips, so moves are compressed.
Support: 0.56012, 0.55924
Resistance: 0.56097, 0.56192, 0.56265
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.5601 Friday low exposes the 0.5592 gap low
A reclaim of the 0.5610 lower high breaks the Asia descending trendline
London open within about 2h could expand the compressed Asian range
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC; US CPI Wed is the larger structural risk
The Asia session filled Monday's gap down from the 0.5592 gap low and peaked at the 0.5619 session high, then faded through a series of lower highs. Price is now pressing the 0.5606 session low, at the 50% retrace of the Asia leg, with RSI(14) near 36 as oil-driven risk aversion keeps NZD heavy into the London open.
Support: 0.5606, 0.5601, 0.5592
Resistance: 0.5610, 0.5619, 0.5626
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5606 session low exposes the 0.5601 Friday low, then the 0.5592 gap low
Reclaim of the 0.5610 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and stalls the intraday sequence
Above the 0.5619 session high, the 0.5626 Friday high sits inside the 0.5622-0.5630 cap
Middle East and oil headlines into the London open could extend this range
04:47 UTC
Intraday down drift after gap-fill rally faded · RSI 39 · price 0.5608
Lower highs off 0.5619 Asia high, compressing 0.5606–0.5610.
Monday's open gapped through the 0.5601 friday low to a 0.5592 gap low, a sweep that reversed fast as Asia filled the gap and ran to a 0.5619 session high. That move has since faded on lower highs into a tight 0.5606–0.5610 band at the asia low, near the 50% fib of the gap rally, with NZD heavy on the oil-driven risk-off tone. RSI(14) ~39 and ATR ~2.5 pips show compressed, low-energy trade into London.
Support: 0.5606, 0.5601, 0.5592
Resistance: 0.5619, 0.5626
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5606 asia low and 50% fib exposes the 0.5601 friday low, then the 0.5592 gap low
Break of the asia lower highs trendline and a reclaim of the 0.5619 session high would void the fade read, with the 0.5626 prior high next
London open in ~2h typically expands the current ~4-pip Asian band
US CPI on Wed Oct 14, 12:30 UTC and Fed's Hammack (16:50 UTC today) could reprice USD via yields
Weekend gap filled, Asian high 0.5619 rejected, basing at 50% retrace.
Monday Asia gapped down from Friday's 0.5613 close to a gap low at 0.5592, then filled the gap and printed an Asian high at 0.5619. Oil-driven risk aversion faded the move back to a 0.5606 swing low, the 50% fib of the opening rally, and price is flat at 0.5607–0.5610 late in the Asia session with ATR near 2.6 pips.
Support: 0.56059, 0.56012, 0.55924
Resistance: 0.56192, 0.56265
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.5606 swing low and 50% fib exposes the Friday low at 0.5601, then the gap low at 0.5592
Reclaim of 0.5614 and a break of the Asian high at 0.5619 puts the Friday high at 0.5627 back in view
London open could break the compressed Asian range
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC could shift USD tone during NY hours
Lower highs off 0.5619 Asia high, coiling above Asia low.
Monday Asia gapped down to 0.5592 as the oil-driven risk-off weighed on NZD. Price filled the gap but was rejected at the 0.5619 Asia high, short of the 0.5627 Friday high. Lower highs since have pressed price back to 0.5606–0.5608, the 50% retrace of the gap-fill fib, where it is coiling just above the Asia low.
Support: 0.56059, 0.56012, 0.55924
Resistance: 0.5611, 0.56192, 0.56265
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5606 asia low exposes the 0.5601 friday low, then the 0.5592 gap low
Recovery above the 0.5611 breakdown shelf breaks the lower-highs line and neutralises the intraday downtrend
0.5619 asia high and 0.5627 friday high mark the upper bounds of the session structure
London open in ~3h may expand the 0.5592–0.5619 Asian range
Fed's Hammack 16:50 UTC today; US CPI Wed Oct 14 12:30 UTC is the larger risk to this read
04:04 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since Asian high · RSI 42 · price 0.56068
Gap-fill rally capped at 0.5619, now fading to its 50% retracement.
Monday opened with a roughly 10-pip gap down to the 0.5592 gap low, which was fully filled into the Asian high at 0.5619. That rally stopped short of Friday's high at 0.5626. Since then, lower highs have pulled price back under both EMAs to the 50% fib near 0.5606, with NZD soft on oil-driven risk aversion and RSI(14) around 42.
Support: 0.56059, 0.56012, 0.55924
Resistance: 0.56109, 0.56192, 0.56265
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5606 session low exposes the Friday low at 0.5601, then the gap low at 0.5592
An M15 close above the 0.5611 broken low and the lower-highs trendline negates the current fade
Asian high at 0.5619 is the cap; the Friday high at 0.5626 sits inside the 0.5622-0.5630 rebound cap flagged in the market digest
Middle East oil and US yield headlines are the main transmission channel ahead of Wednesday's US CPI
Lower highs off Asia session high, testing 50% retrace.
Sunday's thin open gapped below Friday's close and dipped to the 0.5592 open low. Price then filled the gap and peaked at the 0.5619 session high early in the Asia session. Lower highs since then have pushed price through the 0.5611 breakdown level to 0.5607, where the session low and the 50% fib cluster near 0.5606. RSI(14) sits near 36 and ATR is under 3 pips, a quiet tape with no fresh NZD news.
Support: 0.5606, 0.56012, 0.55924
Resistance: 0.5611, 0.56192
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5606 session low / 50% fib exposes the 0.5601 friday low
Reclaim of the 0.5611 breakdown level and the lower-highs trendline breaks the intraday downtrend read
Loss of 0.5601 friday low puts the 0.5592 open low back in play
London open liquidity and Fed Hammack (16:50 UTC) could expand the session range beyond the ~3-pip ATR
03:18 UTC
Short-term pullback after a weekend gap fill · RSI 38 · price 0.5607
Lower highs from 0.5619 session high, fresh session low at 0.5606.
Asia opened with a roughly 10-pip gap down to the 0.5592 gap low, then filled the gap inside two hours. That gap-fill leg met rejection at the 0.5619 session high, short of the 0.5627 Friday high. Lower highs since have pushed price to a 0.5606 session low, close to the 50% retracement of the gap-fill leg, with RSI(14) near 38 and USD firm into Wednesday's CPI.
Support: 0.56063, 0.56012, 0.55924
Resistance: 0.56148, 0.56192, 0.56265
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5606 session low and the 50% fib exposes the 0.5601 Friday low, then the 0.5592 gap low
M15 close above the 0.5615 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and puts the 0.5619 session high back in play
London open liquidity may extend or reverse the Asia-session pullback
Fed Hammack at 16:50 UTC is the next USD headline risk for this session
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.5619 session high.
The weekend gap down to the 0.5592 gap low filled early in the Asia session, but the rally met rejection at the 0.5619 session high. Price has since printed a lower high at 0.5615 and is now near the 50% fib of the gap-fill rally at 0.5606, back below both EMAs. Trading is weekend-thin and the digest flags no fresh news, so US yields and the Wednesday CPI set-up remain the backdrop.
Support: 0.56058, 0.56012, 0.55924
Resistance: 0.56148, 0.56192, 0.56265
What it said to watch
M15 close below the friday low at 0.5601 negates the gap fill and exposes the gap low at 0.5592
Close above the lower high at 0.5615 breaks the descending trendline and reopens the session high at 0.5619, with the friday high at 0.5627 beyond
London open in roughly 4h typically expands the Asian range
Fed's Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:48 UTC
Pullback after Monday gap fill · RSI 41 · price 0.56098
Gap filled, session high rejected; slipping to 38.2% fib.
Monday's Asia session opened with a gap down to 0.5592. Price filled the gap back through the Friday close at 0.5613 and printed a session high at 0.5619, then turned lower. It is now back below EMA20 at the 38.2% fib near 0.5609, RSI(14) ~41, with NZD still pinned near 18-month lows and no fresh weekend news.
Support: 0.5609, 0.5601, 0.5592
Resistance: 0.5613, 0.5619, 0.5627
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 38.2% fib at 0.5609 exposes the 50% at 0.5606 and the friday low at 0.5601
A break of the friday low at 0.5601 puts the gap low at 0.5592 back in focus
Reclaiming the friday close at 0.5613 restores the gap-fill recovery; a close above the session high at 0.5619 opens the friday high at 0.5627
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC Monday is the first scheduled USD risk; US yields remain the driver
02:32 UTC
Sideways after gap fill, momentum flat · RSI 50 · price 0.56133
Asia-session range 0.5611–0.5619 after a filled weekend gap.
Monday's Asia session opened with a gap down to the 0.5592 gap low. The gap filled back to Friday's 0.5613 close within about two hours, and the move topped at a 0.5619 session high. Price is now consolidating around 0.5613, just under EMA20, after a shallow dip to the 0.5611 pullback low (roughly 31% of the gap recovery), with RSI(14) flat near 50 in a thin, newsless tape.
Support: 0.56109, 0.56012, 0.55924
Resistance: 0.56192, 0.56265
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5619 session high exposes the 0.5627 friday high, at the base of the 0.5622–0.5630 cap
Failure to hold the 0.5611 pullback low exposes the 0.5601 friday low, then the 0.5592 gap low
Fed's Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC and US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC are the next USD-side catalysts for this range
02:17 UTC
Recovered from weekend gap, flat near Friday close · RSI 54 · price 0.56135
Gap filled, compressing below Asia session high on higher lows.
Monday's Asia session opened with a gap down to the 0.5592 gap low. The gap filled within three hours, then stalled at the 0.5619 session high, and price is now coiling around Friday's 0.5613 close. Higher lows at 0.5609–0.5611 sit under the consolidation, with ATR compressed near 3.6 pips and no fresh weekend drivers in the digest.
Support: 0.5611, 0.5606, 0.5592
Resistance: 0.5619, 0.5627
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5619 session high exposes the 0.5627 Friday high
Loss of the 0.5611 higher low opens the 38.2% of the gap rally near 0.5609 and the 50% fib at 0.5606
A return toward the 0.5592 gap low would revive the breakdown read inside the 0.5580–0.5630 weekly range
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC is the first scheduled USD driver of the week
Weekend gap down filled, higher lows holding above 0.5611.
Monday's Asia session opened with a 10-pip gap down through the 0.5601 Friday low to a 0.5592 gap low. Price reclaimed that level within two hours and filled the gap, with no fresh weekend drivers per the digest. The 0.5619 session high capped the rebound, and price is now easing toward the 0.5611 swing low, flat on EMA20 with RSI(14) near 52.
Support: 0.56109, 0.56012, 0.55924
Resistance: 0.56192, 0.56265
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5619 session high exposes the 0.5627 Friday high
Failure to hold the 0.5611 swing low puts the 38.2% of the gap-fill rally and the 0.5601 Friday low back in play
A return below the 0.5592 gap low would invalidate the false break read
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC is the next scheduled USD risk; ATR near 3.5 pips reflects thin Asia conditions
Monday gap filled; rejection at 0.56192 session high, pulling back inside the 0.5609–0.5619 Asia range.
Asia session opened with a gap below Friday's 0.56128 close to a 0.55924 gap low. The gap filled within the first hour, with USD firmness into CPI week and NZD near its lows as the backdrop. After repeated stalls at the 0.56165 cap, the push to a 0.56192 session high was rejected. Price is back at 0.5612, under EMA20 and sitting on EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 0.56093, 0.56012, 0.55924
Resistance: 0.56165, 0.56192, 0.56265
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.56093 swing low, which aligns with the 38.2% fib of the gap-low rally, exposes the 0.56012 friday low
Loss of the 0.56012 friday low puts the 0.55924 gap low back in play
Reclaim of the 0.56165 cap reopens the 0.56192 session high, with the 0.56265 friday high above
London open around 07:00 UTC is likely to break the thin Asian range
Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC is the first USD risk of the week
01:33 UTC
Asia recovery stalling below session high · RSI 55 · price 0.56136
Weekend gap filled, higher lows since open, capped at 0.5619.
Asia session opened with a ~10-pip gap down to the 0.5592 gap low. The gap was fully filled within two hours in thin flow, with no fresh NZD or USD news over the weekend. The session high at 0.5619 met rejection, and price is now back on the 0.5612 gap fill area with EMA20 just below and RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 0.56125, 0.5609, 0.55925
Resistance: 0.56192, 0.56265
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5612 gap fill exposes the fib 38.2 at 0.5609, then the 0.5592 gap low
M15 close above the 0.5619 session high reopens the Friday high at 0.5627
ATR near 3.7 pips reflects thin Asia session liquidity, with range expansion more likely into London open
01:18 UTC
Intraday uptrend after weekend gap down · RSI 60 · price 0.5617
False break below Friday low, higher lows into session high.
The weekend gap lower ran through the friday low to a 0.5592 session low, then reversed. Early Asia session has filled the gap and printed higher lows from 0.5612 into a 0.5619 session high, with Friday's yield-driven drift still the backdrop. Price sits 8 pips under the friday high at 0.5627, just below the 0.5622–0.5630 range cap. RSI(14) is near 60 and liquidity is thin.
Support: 0.5612, 0.5601, 0.5592
Resistance: 0.5619, 0.5627, 0.5630
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5619 session high exposes the 0.5627 friday high and 0.5630 range cap
Loss of the 0.5612 pullback low breaks the higher-low chain; 38.2% of the Asia rally fib sits at 0.5609
Return below the 0.5601 friday low reopens the 0.5592 session low
Thin Asia liquidity; US yields stay the main driver into Fed's Hammack (Mon 16:50 UTC) and Wed CPI
The Asia session open gapped about 20 pips below Friday's 0.5613 close to a gap low at 0.5592. The gap filled within the first hour, and price is now compressing in a 0.5612–0.5617 range just under the session high, with the Friday NY high at 0.5617 directly overhead. Liquidity is thin with no fresh news since Friday; NZD remains tied to US yields, and ATR(14) is about 4 pips.
Support: 0.56123, 0.56093, 0.55924
Resistance: 0.56167, 0.56171, 0.56265
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.56167 session high and the 0.56171 Friday NY high exposes the 0.56265 Friday high
A break of the 0.56123 range low shifts focus to the 0.56093 pullback low and the 50% fib of the gap recovery near 0.5605
Loss of the 0.5605–0.5602 fib zone puts the 0.55924 gap low back in view
A renewed rise in US yields ahead of Wednesday's US CPI could cap this recovery
The Asia session opened with a ~10-pip gap down to the 0.5592 gap low in thin liquidity. The Monday rally filled the gap back to Friday's 0.5613 close within two hours, and price is now holding just under the 0.5617 session high. Dips to the 0.5612 swing low have held; RSI(14) sits mid-50s and ATR is near 4 pips, with no fresh weekend news.
Support: 0.56123, 0.56012, 0.55924
Resistance: 0.56167, 0.56265
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5617 session high opens the friday high at 0.5626, inside the 0.5622–0.5630 cap
Failure to hold the 0.5612 swing low exposes the friday low at 0.5601, then the 0.5592 gap low
A pullback deeper than the 50% Monday rally fib (~0.5605) undoes the gap-fill read
No scheduled releases in the next 8h; Fed's Hammack at 16:50 UTC is the next USD risk ahead of Wednesday CPI
00:33 UTC
Recovering from Monday gap, stalling under highs · RSI 55 · price 0.56136
Gap down to 0.5592 filled, early Asia compressing at 0.5612–0.5617.
Monday opened with a gap down to the 0.5592 open low, below Friday's 0.5601 low. Buyers filled the gap to Friday's 0.5613 close within the first hour, extending the Friday tone of softer US yields in thin weekend-to-Monday flow. Early Asia is now compressing between the 0.5611 gap fill and the 0.5617 session high, which lines up with Friday's afternoon highs, with RSI(14) neutral at 55.
Support: 0.5611, 0.5601, 0.5592
Resistance: 0.5617, 0.5627
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5617 session high opens the 0.5627 friday high, near the 0.5622–0.5630 weekly cap
Loss of the 0.5611 gap fill and the recovery line puts the 50% of the open recovery at 0.5605 and the 0.5601 friday low back in focus
A return below the 0.5592 open low would turn the false break into a fresh session low
Thin Asia liquidity; a renewed rise in US yields could quickly reverse the gap recovery
00:17 UTC
Recovering from weekend gap-down, flat at session high · RSI 54 · price 0.56154
Gap filled, higher lows from 0.5592; capped at 0.5617.
The Asia session open gapped down to a 0.5592 gap low. The gap filled above Friday's 0.5613 close within three hours along a higher-low trendline. Price is now stalling at the 0.5617 session high, which matches Friday's NY highs, with RSI(14) neutral near 54 and ATR(14) about 5 pips in thin early-week liquidity.
Support: 0.56128, 0.56012, 0.55924
Resistance: 0.56167, 0.56265
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5617 session high opens the Friday high at 0.5627, the base of the 0.5622–0.5630 cap.
Slip back below the Friday close at 0.5613 reopens the 0.5601 Friday low, with the 0.5605 gap rally fib 50% in between.
Break of the higher-low trendline and the 0.5592 gap low turns the gap fill into a false recovery.
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC is the week's main event risk; Fed's Hammack Mon 16:50 UTC comes first.
Inside Friday's 0.5601–0.5627 range after a false break below the fri low.
Monday's Asia session opened with a weekend gap down to 0.5592, below the 0.5601 fri low. The gap filled within two hours and price is back at Friday's close near 0.5614, with the rebound stalling at 0.5617, the fri ny high. RSI(14) is neutral near 52, and the gap-rebound fib 50% sits at 0.5605.
Support: 0.56093, 0.56012, 0.55924
Resistance: 0.56167, 0.56265
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5617 fri ny high opens the 0.5627 fri high, just under the 0.5622–0.5630 cap flagged all week
Failure to hold the 0.5609 pullback low puts the gap-rebound fib 50% at 0.5605 and the 0.5601 fri low back in play
A return below the 0.5592 gap low would turn the false break into a lower-low
Thin early-Asia liquidity; Fed's Hammack (Mon 16:50 UTC) is the next scheduled USD driver ahead of Wed CPI