Lower highs and lower lows since the late-August top; tight base 0.5580–0.5630 over 8 sessions.
NZDUSD has made lower highs and lower lows since the 0.5988 late-August peak, with six straight weekly declines that have kept price below a falling EMA(50). A firm USD on rising US yields and oil-driven risk aversion has carried the pair to the 0.5580 17-month low. The last eight sessions have compressed between that floor and the 0.5630 range cap, and RSI is near 30 while daily ranges narrow.
Support: 0.5580, 0.5550
Resistance: 0.5630, 0.5687, 0.5736
What it said to watch
Daily close below the 0.5580 17-month low would extend the lower-low sequence and open the 0.5550 round number
Daily close above the 0.5630 range cap breaks the base; the 0.5687 lower high and the 0.5736 fib 38.2% of the Aug–Oct decline sit above
US CPI on Wed Oct 14 at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read through Fed repricing
RBNZ Gov. Breman speaks on Thu Oct 15 at 17:15 UTC; October hike odds near 58% are the swing factor at the lows
Lower-high/lower-low chain from the Aug 21 peak, now compressing in a tight range above the swing low.
NZDUSD has carved a lower-high/lower-low sequence since the Aug 21 peak at 0.5988. It lost the June low near 0.5626 at the end of September, and both the EMA(20) near 0.5665 and the EMA(50) are falling overhead. The past six sessions have compressed between the 0.5580 swing low and the 0.5628 range cap. A firm USD on rising US yields and oil-driven risk aversion keeps the pair pinned, while upbeat NZ business confidence and GDT data failed to lift it. RSI near 28 reflects a stretched decline, but daily ranges have narrowed rather than reversed.
Support: 0.5580, 0.5550
Resistance: 0.5628, 0.5687, 0.5735
What it said to watch
Daily close below the 0.5580 swing low extends the lower-low chain and opens the 0.5550 round number
Daily close above the 0.5628 range cap would be the first break of the compression, with the 0.5687 lower high next and the ema50 near 0.5735 above
US CPI Wed Oct 14 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read via Fed hike pricing
RBNZ Gov. Breman speech Thu Oct 15 17:15 UTC is the swing factor for October hike odds (~58% priced)