Higher highs / higher lows since mid-June low, pulling back.
NZDUSD has carved higher lows since the mid-June trough at 0.5631, and the recent leg cleared the 0.5770 prior base with a push to 0.5788 — the move underpinned by the hawkish RBNZ hike story. Price has since pulled back toward 0.5748 and is retesting broken structure, with EMA20 and EMA50 both below spot. The 0.5825 SMA cluster remains the heavy overhead cap into the US CPI print.
Support: 0.5748, 0.5700, 0.5631
Resistance: 0.5788, 0.5825
What it said to watch
US CPI Tuesday + Warsh testimony are the key USD swing risk for the next H4 bars
H4 close below 0.5748 threatens the higher-low sequence toward 0.5700
Sustained break above 0.5788 opens the path to the 0.5825 sma cluster
NZDUSD has recovered off the early-month base near 0.5626, printing a steady higher-low sequence through the prior swing at 0.5713 and the 0.5677 swing low, driven by the hawkish RBNZ story. The rally stalled just below 0.5793 recent high, well short of the 0.5825 sma cluster, and price has since pulled back to 0.5750. ATR remains moderate as the pair consolidates the advance.
Support: 0.5747, 0.5713, 0.5677
Resistance: 0.5793, 0.5800, 0.5825
What it said to watch
Close above 0.5793 recent high opens the path to the 0.5825 sma cluster
Failure to hold 0.5747 recent low threatens the higher-low sequence
US CPI Tuesday and Warsh testimony are the key USD swing risk for this read
17:03 UTC
Uptrend, momentum firm · RSI 61 · price 0.57692
Higher lows since mid-June basing.
NZDUSD has carved a rounded bottom off the mid-June low near 0.5626, and a higher-low sequence has carried price back to a three-week high at 0.5794, aided by the hawkish RBNZ hold. Price now sits above both EMA20 and EMA50 after a clean breakout of the prior 0.5650-0.5700 base, though the advance is stalling into the 0.5794 high as a firmer safe-haven USD caps gains. The 0.5747 swing low marks first support on any pullback.
Support: 0.5747, 0.5725, 0.5700
Resistance: 0.5794, 0.5825
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.5794 opens the 0.5825 sma cluster
Failure to hold 0.5747 swing low exposes 0.5725 rejection zone then 0.5700 psych
NZIER Business Confidence 22:00 UTC and US-Iran headlines could shift the read
Higher lows since mid-June low, stalling at 0.5794.
NZD carved out a three-week high at 0.5794 on hawkish RBNZ support, with higher-low structure intact since the mid-June 0.5631 low. Price is now consolidating around 0.5770 after the rejection at the high, a firmer USD on Mideast safe-haven flows capping the advance. ATR(14) near 19 pips shows a steady, non-explosive expansion.
Support: 0.5770, 0.5725, 0.5700
Resistance: 0.5794, 0.5825
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.5794 three-week high opens the 0.5825 SMA cluster
Failure to hold 0.5770 support exposes the 0.5725 rejection zone then 0.5700
NZIER Business Confidence at 22:00 UTC could shift this read
NZDUSD has carved a series of higher lows off the mid-June 0.5630 base, and the current leg has price at 0.5782, back testing the 0.5794 three-week high after Wednesday's hawkish RBNZ hike. EMA20 and EMA50 both sit below price and ATR is expanding as the recovery extends. The 0.5794 high and the 0.5825 100-day SMA cluster cap the upside, with 0.5770 the first support on any fade.
Support: 0.5770, 0.5725, 0.5700
Resistance: 0.5794, 0.5825
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.5794 opens the path to the 0.5825 100-day sma
Failure to hold 0.5770 initial support reopens the 0.5725 pivot
NZIER Business Confidence (22:00 UTC) could shift the RBNZ read
13:04 UTC
Recovery, higher lows building · RSI 62 · price 0.57821
Higher lows off 0.5630 base, testing range top.
NZDUSD has ground higher off the three-week low near 0.5630, carving a rounded base and a clean higher-low sequence into the recent 0.5794 high, helped by the hawkish RBNZ hike earlier in the week. Price now sits just below that 0.5794 cap with EMA20 and EMA50 aligned beneath spot; ATR is moderate, neither compressed nor blown out. Buyers stepped in again around 0.5747 after the last pullback.
Support: 0.5770, 0.5747, 0.5725
Resistance: 0.5794, 0.5825
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.5794 three-week high opens the path to the 0.5825 100-day SMA cluster
Failure to hold 0.5770 initial support risks a retest of the 0.5747 recent low then 0.5725 pivot
NZIER Business Confidence today 22:00 UTC could shift this read
US-Iran risk-off headlines reviving USD safe-haven demand would cap the recovery
09:04 UTC
Uptrend, momentum steady · RSI 60 · price 0.57741
Higher highs and higher lows since late-June low.
NZDUSD has carved a clean sequence of higher lows since the late-June base near 0.5630, with the RBNZ hawkish hike underpinning the ~1% run to the three-week high at 0.5794. Price pulled back to the recent low around 0.5747 and is recovering, holding above both EMA20 and EMA50. The 0.5825 SMA cluster remains the overhead cap on the rally.
Support: 0.5747, 0.5725
Resistance: 0.5794, 0.5825
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.5794 opens the path to the 0.5825 sma cluster
Failure to hold 0.5747 recent low turns focus to the 0.5725 swing low
NZIER Business Confidence (Jul 13 22:00 UTC) is the main near-term NZ catalyst
09:04 UTC
Uptrend, momentum easing · RSI 59 · price 0.57741
Higher lows since 0.5630, pullback from 3-wk high.
NZDUSD has carved higher lows since the 0.5630 base, and the RBNZ's hawkish 2.50% hike drove a run to the three-week high at 0.5794 before this pullback toward 0.5750. Price holds above both EMA20 and EMA50 after the bullish cross, but ATR is subdued and the 0.5825 SMA cluster remains the ceiling on the rally. Buyers stepped back in around 0.5750 on the latest dip, keeping the recovery structure intact.
Support: 0.5750, 0.5725, 0.5700
Resistance: 0.5794, 0.5825
What it said to watch
NZIER Business Confidence (Jul 13 22:00 UTC) is the main near-term NZ catalyst
H4 close above 0.5794 opens the path to the 0.5825 sma cluster
Failure to hold 0.5750 confirms a lower-low back toward 0.5725/0.5700
Kiwi has carved a rounded bottom off the mid-June low near 0.5631 and built higher lows into a two-week recovery, peaking at the 3-week high 0.5794 before this pullback to 0.5758. The advance rides the hawkish RBNZ hike and a soft USD near 3-week lows, but the move is stalling below the 0.5794/0.5825 cap noted in the macro read. ATR sits moderate — the leg is orderly rather than impulsive.
Support: 0.5725, 0.5700
Resistance: 0.5794, 0.5825
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.5794 opens the path to the 0.5825 100-day sma cluster
Failure to hold 0.5725 negates the higher-low structure
US CPI Tue 14 Jul 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:04 UTC
Uptrend, momentum steady · RSI 61 · price 0.57577
Higher highs and higher lows since 0.5630 base.
Kiwi has carved a clean recovery off the 0.5630 base, printing higher highs and higher lows with EMA20 now above EMA50 — the leg was helped by the hawkish RBNZ hike and a soft USD as Iran de-escalation drained the safe-haven bid. Price stalled at the 3-week high near 0.5794 and has since pulled back toward 0.5748, holding the rising support line. The 0.5825 / 100-day SMA cluster remains the key overhead cap.
Support: 0.5748, 0.5725, 0.5700
Resistance: 0.5794, 0.5825
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.5794 opens the path to the 0.5825 cap
Loss of 0.5748 then 0.5725 would break the higher-low sequence
US CPI Tue 12:30 UTC and NZIER confidence Mon 22:00 UTC could reset this read
Higher lows since June low, pulling back from 3wk high.
NZDUSD has recovered off the June base near 0.5626, carving higher lows and rallying to a three-week high at 0.5794 on the hawkish RBNZ hike before fading to 0.5757. Price holds above both EMA20 and EMA50 with the cross bullish, but the rejection at 0.5794 and cooling RSI show the leg losing steam near range highs. ATR remains contained, keeping the pullback orderly rather than impulsive.
Support: 0.5745, 0.5700, 0.5675
Resistance: 0.5794, 0.5825
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.5794 opens the path toward the 0.5825 100d sma
Failure to hold 0.5745 exposes a deeper pullback toward the 0.5700 psych level
US CPI Tue 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher highs/higher lows since early-month base, fading from 3wk high.
NZDUSD has carved a clean higher-low sequence off the 0.5631 base, with three sessions of gains after the hawkish RBNZ hike driving a breakout above the prior 0.567 range and a push to a 3wk high at 0.5794. That high was rejected and price is now fading toward 0.5757, with EMA20 above EMA50 confirming the swing turn higher. ATR sits mid-range, so the leg is neither exhausted nor over-extended into the pullback.
Support: 0.5715, 0.5700, 0.5647
Resistance: 0.5794, 0.5825
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.5794 opens the path to the 0.5825 100-day sma
Failure to hold 0.5700 negates the higher-low uptrend structure
US CPI Tue 12:30 UTC is the week's key catalyst for USD and could reset this read
NZIER Business Confidence Mon 22:00 UTC tests the hawkish RBNZ path