Every read JAFX AI made on the NZD/USD daily chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:05 UTC
Recovering off June low, higher lows building · RSI 57 · price 0.5763
Base carved mid-June, higher lows into July.
NZDUSD spent the second half of June basing around 0.5630, then turned higher on the hawkish RBNZ repricing that has led the Kiwi across G10. The last two weeks show a steady chain of higher lows into 0.5763, with the recovery now pressing the underside of EMA(50). The prior May-high sequence near 0.5994 remains the ceiling of the wider range, while 0.5790 and the 0.5810 confluence cap the current leg.
Support: 0.5700, 0.5672, 0.5630
Resistance: 0.5790, 0.5810
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 0.5810 confluence would extend the recovery toward the May highs
- Failure to hold 0.5700 psych level reopens the 0.5672 and 0.5630 june low band
- NZ Q2 CPI Jul 20 is the key test of the RBNZ tightening bias — a soft print risks unwinding this recovery
21:05 UTC
Downtrend, near-term recovery · RSI 61 · price 0.5763
Multi-month lower highs, basing off June low.
NZDUSD spent February–June in a broad downtrend, peaking near 0.5994 in early May before sliding to the 0.5630 june low in late June. The last two weeks have seen a steady recovery to 0.5763 on hawkish RBNZ repricing, reclaiming EMA20 but still capped below EMA50 near 0.5785; the bounce is roughly a 38% retracement of the May–June downswing. RSI has lifted off oversold into the low 60s as the base builds.
Support: 0.5703, 0.5672, 0.5630
Resistance: 0.5793, 0.5810
What it said to watch
- NZ Q2 CPI on Jul 20 is the pivotal risk — a soft print threatens the crowded NZD recovery
- Daily close above the 0.5810 confluence would extend the recovery beyond the swing high at 0.5793
- Failure to hold the 0.5703 ema20 reopens the 0.5672 swing low and the 0.5630 june low