NZD/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Wednesday, 14 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the NZD/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Uptrend, RSI stretched · RSI 78 · price 0.56068
Higher lows since 0.5581, retracing CPI drop.
The hot US CPI drop from 0.5619 to 0.5565 has been almost fully retraced. Price is above the 0.5600 round number in early Asia session trade, pressing the fib 78.6% at 0.5608 with RSI(14) near 78, and the post-CPI yield reversal flagged in the digest is the backdrop. The chain of higher lows from the 0.5581 rollover low is intact, and the pre-CPI base at 0.5611–0.5612 is the next overhead area.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5592, 0.55808
Resistance: 0.56077, 0.56115, 0.56193
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5600 round number exposes the 0.5592 prior shelf
Acceptance above the pre-cpi base at 0.5612 opens the cpi bar high at 0.5619
Break of the recovery trend toward the 0.5581 rollover low ends the higher-low chain
US PPI/Retail Sales cluster at 12:30 UTC Thursday could reset this read
HL chain from 0.5565 CPI low, 0.5580 and 0.5600 reclaimed.
Hot US CPI knocked NZDUSD from the 0.5619 pre-CPI high to a 0.5565 low in NY. Since then a steady higher-low chain off the rising trendline has reclaimed 0.5580 and the 0.5600 round number in early Asia, a ~71% retrace of the CPI drop fib, with RSI(14) near 75 and the London low at 0.5611 next overhead.
Support: 0.5600, 0.55808
Resistance: 0.56112, 0.56193
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5600 round number puts the 0.5581 swing low and the rising trendline back in play
M15 close above the 0.5611 London low exposes the 0.5619 pre-CPI high and a full retrace of the CPI drop fib
US Retail Sales/PPI cluster at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
23:17 UTC
Post-CPI rebound, higher lows into early Asia · RSI 67 · price 0.55989
Higher lows off 0.5565, testing 61.8% retrace below 0.5600.
The hot US CPI print (3.7%) took NZDUSD from the 0.5619 CPI high to a 0.5565 post-CPI low during NY hours, through the 0.5580 floor. The rollover dip held at a 0.5581 swing low on rising support, and early Asia has lifted price to 0.5599. That is the 61.8% retrace of the CPI drop, just under the 0.5600 psych level, with RSI(14) near 67.
Support: 0.55808, 0.55652
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56112, 0.56193
What it said to watch
Rejection at 0.5600 psych / 61.8% retrace keeps the rebound capped below the 0.5611 pre-CPI low
M15 close above the 0.5611 pre-CPI low reopens the 0.5619 CPI high
Failure to hold the 0.5581 swing low breaks rising support and reopens the 0.5565 post-CPI low
US PPI and Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
The hot US CPI print knocked the pair 54 pips to a 0.5565 cpi low in NY hours. It has since built higher lows, held the 0.5581 rollover low and reclaimed the broken 0.5580 floor. Early Asia session is printing a new high at 0.5598, at the 61.8% retracement just under the 0.5600 round number, with RSI(14) near 67 and both EMAs below price.
Support: 0.55923, 0.55808, 0.55652
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.56112
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5600 round number opens the 0.5611 london low, where the pre-CPI drop began
Slip back below the 50% fib at 0.5592 and the rising lows trendline stalls the recovery
Loss of the 0.5581 rollover low puts the 0.5580 break back in play toward the cpi low
US PPI/Retail Sales (Oct 15 12:30 UTC) and RBNZ Breman (17:15 UTC) could materially shift this read
The hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC broke the pre-CPI range and ran to the 0.5565 CPI low during NY hours. Since then a chain of higher lows has retraced the post-CPI drop to between the 50% and 61.8% fib, and price is pressing the 0.5600 round number into the early Asia session. The rollover dip held the 0.5580 broken level, and RSI(14) near 66 is firm but not stretched.
Support: 0.5592, 0.5580, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5600, 0.5619
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.5600 round number and the 61.8% fib opens the pre-CPI high at 0.5619
Loss of the fib 50% at 0.5592, then the 0.5580 broken level, exposes the CPI low at 0.5565
US PPI/Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC Thu and RBNZ's Breman at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
The hot US CPI flush took price from 0.5619 to the 0.5565 cpi low, and half of that drop has been retraced. Price at 0.5592 is pressing the session high and 50% fib into the Asia open. The rollover dip to 0.5581 held above the 0.5580 breakdown level, leaving a higher low, and RSI(14) sits near 58.
Support: 0.55852, 0.55808, 0.55652
Resistance: 0.55929, 0.55986
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5593 session high opens the 61.8% fib at 0.5599 and the 0.5600 round number
Failure below the 0.5585 swing low and the 0.5581 rollover low puts price back under 0.5580 and toward the 0.5565 cpi low
IMF meeting at 00:00 UTC is the only near-term scheduled risk; US PPI/Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC Thu could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the 0.5565 low, pressing recovery high.
Hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC dropped NZDUSD from 0.5619 to a 0.5565 post-CPI low by mid-NY, breaking the 0.5580 floor. The pair has since retraced to the 50% fib of that drop near 0.5592. A post-rollover gap and dip to the 0.5581 retest low held above 0.5580, and price is back at the 0.5593 recovery high into early Asia session.
Support: 0.5586, 0.5581, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5593, 0.5596, 0.5600
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.5593 recovery high opens the 0.5596 cpi spike high and the 0.5600 round number
Failure at the 0.5593 recovery high, then a break of the 38.2% fib at 0.5586, would turn the bounce into a lower-high
Loss of the 0.5581 retest low and the recovery line puts the 0.5565 post-cpi low back in view
Thin Asia liquidity until London; US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC Oct 15 could materially shift this read
22:03 UTC
Post-CPI selloff, retracing late NY · RSI 59 · price 0.55913
Higher lows off 0.5565, capped at 50% retrace.
The hot US CPI print knocked NZDUSD 54 pips, from 0.5619 to a 0.5565 CPI low by mid-NY. The late-NY recovery has stacked higher lows and now presses the session high at 0.5593, which sits on the 50% retrace and EMA50. The rollover dip to 0.5581 held above the broken floor at 0.5580.
Support: 0.5581, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5593, 0.5600, 0.5611
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5593 session high / 50% fib opens the 0.5600 round number, then the london low at 0.5611
Failure back below the 0.5581 broken floor reopens the 0.5565 CPI low
Thin Asia session liquidity; US PPI/retail sales (12:30 UTC) and RBNZ Breman (17:15 UTC) Thursday could materially shift this read
Lower low at 0.5565, corrective bounce capped at 50% fib.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC broke the Asia-London range at 0.5612 and drove price to the post-CPI low at 0.5565 by mid-NY session. The bounce retraced to the 50% fib of the CPI drop, setting a bounce high at 0.5593, and stalled into rollover. Price is back near 0.5586 with RSI(14) at ~44 and both EMAs overhead.
Support: 0.55808, 0.55783, 0.55652
Resistance: 0.55928, 0.5600
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the rollover low at 0.5581 and the swing low at 0.5578 exposes the post-CPI low at 0.5565
An M15 close above the 0.5593 bounce high opens the 0.5600 round number
The US PPI and retail sales cluster (Thu 12:30 UTC) and RBNZ's Breman (17:15 UTC) could materially shift this read
The hot US CPI print (3.7%) at 12:30 UTC knocked NZDUSD from 0.5619 to a 0.5565 post-CPI low during NY hours. The rebound has reclaimed the 0.5580 prior floor and stalled with a rejection at the 50% retrace of the CPI drop near 0.5592, where EMA50 also sits. Price is ranging 0.5585–0.5592 into the Asia session, with RSI(14) neutral at 54.
Support: 0.5580, 0.55652
Resistance: 0.5592, 0.5600
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5592 (50% retrace) opens the 0.5600 round number
Failure to hold the 0.5580 prior floor puts the 0.5565 post-CPI low back in play
US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC Oct 15 could materially shift this read
The hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC knocked NZD/USD from 0.5619 to a 0.5565 NY low, below the 0.5580 floor. The NY-afternoon rebound reclaimed that broken floor and has stalled at the 50% fib of the CPI drop near 0.5592. Post-NY-close trade is flat in a 0.5585–0.5592 band above the rollover low, with ATR(14) contracting to about 4 pips.
Support: 0.55852, 0.5580, 0.55652
Resistance: 0.55923, 0.5600, 0.56112
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5592 50% fib and the 0.5600 round number exposes the 0.5611 London low, the pre-CPI base
Loss of the 0.5585 rollover low and a close back below the 0.5580 broken floor reopens the 0.5565 NY low
Asia session opens in thin post-rollover liquidity; Breman (Oct 15, 17:15 UTC) and Thursday's US PPI and retail sales are the next scheduled catalysts
Higher lows off 0.5565 double bottom, stalling at 50% retracement.
The hot 3.7% US CPI print at 12:30 UTC knocked the pair 36 pips through the 0.5580 pivot to a 0.5565 cpi low by 15:00 UTC. A double bottom at 0.5565–0.5567 has since built a stepwise higher-low recovery back above 0.5580. Late NY is stalling at the 0.5592 50% fib of the CPI drop, with RSI(14) near 67 and bar ranges compressing into the Asia session.
Support: 0.5587, 0.5580, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5592, 0.5596, 0.5600
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5596 cpi bar high opens the 0.5600 round number
Loss of the 0.5587 higher low and the recovery line points back to the 0.5580 pivot
Break below the 0.5565 cpi low resumes the post-CPI downtrend
US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC Thursday, then RBNZ's Breman at 17:15 UTC, could reset this read
Higher lows off 0.5565 CPI low, stalling at 50% retracement.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC knocked the pair 54 pips from 0.5619 to the 0.5565 CPI low by mid-NY session. Late NY has retraced half the drop on a rising line of higher lows, putting price back above the 0.5580 broken floor. Price is now in a tight consolidation under the 0.5592 bounce high, where the 50% retracement and EMA50 line up, with ema20 at 0.5585 just below and RSI(14) near 69.
Support: 0.5585, 0.5580, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5592, 0.5600
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5592 bounce high and EMA50 opens the 0.5600 round number, which aligns with the 61.8% of the cpi drop fib
A break of the rising line and the ema20 at 0.5585 would expose the 0.5580 broken floor
Failure to hold 0.5580 puts the 0.5565 cpi low back in focus
Thin Asia session liquidity ahead; US PPI/retail sales (Thu 12:30 UTC) and RBNZ Breman (Oct 15, 17:15 UTC) could materially shift this read
20:32 UTC
Post-CPI rebound, stalling at the 50% fib · RSI 59 · price 0.55916
Higher lows off 0.5565 cpi low, capped near 0.5592.
The hot US CPI print (3.7%) broke the 0.5611–0.5630 Asia/London range at 12:30 UTC, and NY hours extended to a 0.5565 cpi low. Since then, higher lows have reclaimed the 0.5580 pivot. Price has stalled at the 0.5592 ny high, where the 50% retrace of the CPI drop lines up with EMA50; RSI(14) is near 59 and ATR(14) has compressed to about 4 pips late in NY.
Support: 0.55852, 0.5580, 0.55652
Resistance: 0.5592, 0.55986, 0.56193
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5592 ny high and EMA50 opens the 61.8% fib at 0.5599, then the 0.5619 cpi high
Break of rising support and the 0.5585 swing low exposes the 0.5580 pivot
Loss of the 0.5580 pivot puts the 0.5565 cpi low back in play
US PPI and Retail Sales (Thu 12:30 GMT) could materially shift this read; RBNZ Breman follows at 17:15 UTC
The hot US CPI (3.7%) knocked NZD/USD 36 pips in the 12:30 UTC bar from the 0.5619 cpi high, extending to a 0.5565 ny low before a higher-low chain reclaimed the 0.5580 pivot. Late in the NY session the bounce is stalling at the 0.5592 recovery hi, the 50% retrace of the CPI drop and just under EMA50. Price is now testing the rising trendline from the 0.5567 higher low. RSI(14) sits near 68.
Support: 0.5580, 0.5567, 0.55652
Resistance: 0.5592, 0.5600, 0.56193
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5580 pivot breaks the rising trendline and undercuts the recovery read
Close above the 0.5592 recovery hi opens the 0.5600 round number; beyond that sits the 0.5619 cpi high
Loss of the 0.5567 higher low and the 0.5565 ny low resumes the post-CPI downtrend
Breman speech Oct 15 17:15 UTC and Thursday's US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the 0.5565 cpi low; capped at the 0.5590 late ny high near the 50% retrace.
Hot US CPI (3.7%) at 12:30 UTC broke the London range low and dropped the pair 54 pips to the 0.5565 cpi low. Late NY has since retraced about 43% of the cpi drop and reclaimed the 0.5580 cpi break level, but the advance is stalling at the 0.5590 late ny high, just under the 50% fib and EMA50, with RSI(14) near 70.
Support: 0.55852, 0.5580, 0.55652
Resistance: 0.55905, 0.55958, 0.5600
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5596 spike high extends the retrace toward the 61.8% at 0.5599 and the 0.5600 round number
A break of the 0.5585 pivot low ends the late-NY higher-low sequence
Failure to hold the 0.5580 cpi break level reopens the 0.5565 cpi low
US PPI/Retail Sales (Thu 12:30 UTC) and RBNZ Breman (Thu 17:15 UTC) are the next scheduled risks to this read
Hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC broke the London low at 0.5611 and drove a 54-pip slide to a 0.5565 session low. The late-NY rebound has printed higher lows along a rising tl and reclaimed the 0.5580 round number, but it is capping at the 0.5590 rebound high, where the 38.2% fib of the CPI drop meets EMA50.
Support: 0.55852, 0.5580, 0.55652
Resistance: 0.55905, 0.55958, 0.56112
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5590 rebound high opens the 50% fib at 0.5592 and the 0.5596 cpi spike high
Break of the rising tl near 0.5585 and a slip back under the 0.5580 round number would put the 0.5565 session low back in play
The London low at 0.5611 marks the base of the pre-CPI range; a move back there would unwind the full CPI leg
US PPI and Retail Sales Thu 12:30 GMT are the next scheduled catalyst that could shift this read
Higher-low chain since 16:15 UTC, retesting breakdown zone below 0.5600.
Hot US CPI (3.7%) at 12:30 UTC broke the pair 36 pips through 0.5580 in one bar, extending to a 0.5565 NY low. Since then a rising trendline of higher lows has lifted price back above the 0.5580 pivot to 0.5590, between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the CPI leg, with the post-CPI high at 0.5596 and the 0.5600 round number overhead after London close.
Support: 0.55852, 0.5580, 0.55652
Resistance: 0.55958, 0.5600, 0.56112
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5596 post-CPI high and 0.5600 round number (61.8% at 0.5599) opens the pre-CPI low at 0.5611
Break of the rising trendline and the 0.5585 swing low returns price to the 0.5580 pivot; failure there reopens the 0.5565 NY low
RBNZ Breman (Oct 15, 17:15 UTC) and Thursday's US PPI/retail sales cluster could materially shift this read
Higher lows off CPI low, stalling below 50% retrace.
The hot US CPI (3.7% y/y, core beat) at 12:30 UTC broke the session range and the 0.5580 floor, with the slide extending to the CPI low at 0.55652. Late NY has built higher lows from there back above the broken floor, but the recovery high at 0.5590 is capping price just below the 50% retrace, with the post-CPI high at 0.55958 and the 0.5600 round number overhead.
Support: 0.5580, 0.55783, 0.55652
Resistance: 0.5590, 0.55958, 0.5600
What it said to watch
Close back below the 0.5580 broken floor and the 0.55783 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and the recovery line
Close above the 0.5590 recovery high opens the post-CPI high at 0.55958 and the 0.5600 round number (61.8% retrace)
Loss of the CPI low at 0.55652 resumes the post-CPI downtrend
US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 GMT Thu could materially shift this read
The hot US CPI print (core 0.3% m/m) at 12:30 UTC knocked NZD/USD 36 pips through the 0.5580 floor, extending to a 0.5565 session low during NY hours. Late NY has since printed higher lows and moved back above the 0.5580 swing low. Price is now pressing the 38.2% fib of the CPI drop, with the post-CPI lower high at 0.5590, the cpi high at 0.5596 and the 0.5600 round number overhead.
Support: 0.5580, 0.55652
Resistance: 0.55899, 0.55958, 0.5600
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the 0.5580 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and reopens the 0.5565 session low
An M15 close above the 0.5596 cpi high puts the 61.8% fib and the 0.5600 round number in play
Rejection at the 0.5590 lower high keeps the retest of the broken 0.5580 floor intact
US PPI and retail sales on Thu at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Rising lows off 0.5565, testing 0.5590 swing high.
Hot US CPI (3.7%) at 12:30 UTC knocked NZDUSD from 0.5619 through the Asian range to a 0.5565 session low. Since London close the pair has printed rising lows off the 0.5570 ny base and is back above the 0.5580 broken floor. It now sits at the 38.2% retrace of the CPI drop, just under the 0.5590 swing high and EMA50, with RSI(14) near 64.
Support: 0.5580, 0.5570, 0.55652
Resistance: 0.5590, 0.55958, 0.5600
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5590 swing high opens the 0.5596 cpi rebound high and 0.5600 psych
Loss of the 0.5580 broken floor and the rising lows line puts the 0.5570 ny base and 0.5565 session low back in play
Thin Asia session liquidity ahead; Breman speech (Oct 15, 17:15 UTC) and US PPI/retail sales (12:30 UTC) are the next event risks
17:47 UTC
Downtrend after CPI, corrective bounce in late NY · RSI 57 · price 0.55829
Higher lows off 0.5565, retesting the broken 0.5580 level.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC knocked 36 pips off in one bar, breaking out of the 0.5610–0.5630 Asian range and extending to a 0.5565 session low during NY hours. Late NY has built higher lows (0.5567, pivot low 0.5574) and pushed back to the broken lvl at 0.5580, just under the fib 38.2 retracement at 0.5586.
Support: 0.5580, 0.55735, 0.55652
Resistance: 0.55859, 0.55899, 0.55958
What it said to watch
Holding above the 0.5580 broken lvl keeps the bounce intact; a slip back under the 0.5574 pivot low points to a retest of the 0.5565 session low
A close above the 0.5586 fib 38.2 brings the 0.5590 nyam pivot and the 0.5596 post-cpi hi into view
Fed Beige Book at 18:00 GMT, about 15 minutes away, could jolt yields and this bounce
A break of the rising-low trendline from 0.5565 ends the higher-low sequence
Higher lows off NY low, retesting 0.5580 broken floor.
Hot US core CPI took the pair from 0.5619 through the 0.5580 broken floor in one bar. The drop extended to a 0.5565 NY low, and late NY has since printed a higher-low line at 0.5567 and 0.5573. Price is now back at 0.5582, sitting just under the 38.2 fib of the cpi drop fib at 0.5586.
Support: 0.5580, 0.5573, 0.55652
Resistance: 0.55859, 0.55958
What it said to watch
Fed Beige Book at 18:00 GMT, within the hour, could materially shift this read
M15 close back below the 0.5580 broken floor turns the bounce into a failed retest
Acceptance above the 0.5586 38.2 fib opens the 0.5596 cpi spike high
Loss of the 0.5573 higher low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 0.5565 NY low
17:17 UTC
Downtrend, post-CPI base forming · RSI 38 · price 0.55768
Hot US CPI (core 0.3% m/m vs 0.2%) hit at 12:30 UTC and dropped NZDUSD 36 pips in one bar. The move broke through the overnight range low near 0.5611 and the 0.5580 floor, then ran to a 0.5565 session low. Late in NY hours price is basing: it printed a 0.5567 higher low and pushed above the 0.5574 neckline, and is now pressing the broken floor near 0.5580, where EMA20 and the 23.6% fib converge; RSI(14) ~38.
Support: 0.5574, 0.5567, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5580, 0.5596
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5580 broken floor opens the 38.2% fib near 0.5586 and the 0.5596 post-cpi hi
Failure below the 0.5574 neckline returns focus to the 0.5567 higher low and 0.5565 session low
Fed Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Hot US core CPI at 12:30 UTC triggered a ~54-pip CPI drop from 0.5619 to a 0.5565 session low, breaking the 0.5580 floor. Through the NY afternoon the pair has compressed in a 0.5567–0.5575 band below the broken floor, printing a higher low at 0.5567 with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 0.5567, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5580, 0.5590
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5580 broken floor (23.6% of the CPI drop) opens the 0.5590 swing high
Loss of the 0.5567 higher low, then the 0.5565 session low, resumes the post-CPI downtrend
Fed Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could jolt the consolidation
Lower highs after CPI break; tight 0.5565–0.5575 base.
The hot US CPI print (3.7%) at 12:30 UTC broke NZDUSD through the Asia-London range low near 0.5611 and the 0.5580 broken floor, with NY hours setting a session low at 0.5565 under a sequence of lower highs. After London close price has based in a 0.5565–0.5575 band with a higher low at 0.5567. It is now pressing the range top, still below EMA20, with RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 0.5567, 0.55652
Resistance: 0.55745, 0.55804, 0.55899
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5575 range top exposes the 0.5580 broken floor
Reclaim of 0.5580 brings the 38.2% fib near 0.5586 and the 0.5590 lower high into play
Loss of the 0.5567 higher low and the 0.5565 session low resumes the lower-low sequence
Fed Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
16:31 UTC
Downtrend, post-CPI leg stalling · RSI 31 · price 0.55705
Lower highs and lower lows since the 12:30 UTC CPI break; tight 0.5565–0.5574 base since 15:00 UTC.
The hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core 2.6% vs 2.5%) dropped the pair 36 pips in one bar, out of the Asian/London range. The selling then ran through the 0.5580 17-month low to a 0.5565 session low. Since 15:00 UTC, price has compressed between 0.5565 and the 0.5574 lower high under a falling trendline, with RSI(14) near 31 and not yet oversold.
Support: 0.55652, 0.5560
Resistance: 0.5574, 0.5580, 0.55859
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5574 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and puts the 0.5580 17-month low back in play as resistance
Reclaim of 0.5580 opens the 38.2% fib of the CPI drop near 0.5586
Break below the 0.5565 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5600-minus round number at 0.5560
Fed Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
16:16 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 31 · price 0.55716
Post-CPI range break, lower highs and lower lows.
The hot US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core 2.6% vs 2.5%) broke the pre-data 0.5611–0.5625 range and took out the 0.5580 prior low. NY session has since printed a chain of lower highs from the 0.5596 cpi bounce into a 0.5565 session low, and price is now compressing 0.5569–0.5574 under the falling trendline after London close, with RSI(14) near 31.
Support: 0.55652, 0.5560
Resistance: 0.5574, 0.5578, 0.55958
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.5574 lower high breaks the post-CPI trendline sequence
Reclaiming the 0.5578–0.5580 prior low would put the break in question; the 38.2% of the cpi drop sits near 0.5586
Failure to hold the 0.5565 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5560 round number
Fed Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
16:02 UTC
Downtrend after CPI break, consolidating near lows · RSI 31 · price 0.55712
Lower highs and lower lows since 12:30 UTC; 0.5580 prior low flipped to cap.
The hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC drove a 36-pip bar off 0.5619. It broke the Asian/London range and the 0.5580 prior low, and the NY session has since printed a session low at 0.5565. Bounces have stalled under 0.5580, well short of the 38.2% of the cpi drop fib near 0.5586, and price is now coiling around the 0.5569 swing low.
Support: 0.55691, 0.55652
Resistance: 0.5580, 0.55958
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.5580 prior low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5565 session low extends the lower-low chain
Recovery through the 0.5596 cpi bounce high would neutralise the post-CPI downtrend
Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could shift USD tone into the NY close
Lower highs and lower lows since the CPI bar; NY session holding below the broken 0.5580 prior low.
The hot US core CPI print at 12:30 UTC dropped NZDUSD about 36 pips in one bar out of the Asia/London range (Asian high 0.5630). The move cut through the 0.5580 prior low and set a session low at 0.5565 during NY hours. Bounces since then have formed a chain of lower highs, capped at the prior low, which lines up with the 23.6% level of the CPI drop fib.
Support: 0.55652, 0.5550
Resistance: 0.5580, 0.55958
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.5580 prior low and the lower-highs trendline would neutralise the breakdown read and expose the 0.5596 cpi bounce high.
A break of the 0.5565 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5550 round number.
The Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could shift the USD tone after CPI and change this read.
15:32 UTC
Downtrend, post-CPI leg extending · RSI 30 · price 0.55715
Lower highs and lower lows since the 12:30 UTC CPI drop, below the old low.
The hot US core CPI at 12:30 UTC dropped NZDUSD about 36 pips in one bar from the 0.5619 pre-CPI high, leaving the Asian 0.5610–0.5630 range well above. NY session then broke through the 0.5580 old low to a session low at 0.5565, with each bounce capped by the lower-high trendline from the 0.5596 cpi bar high. RSI(14) is near 30 and the bounce from the session low has been shallow, holding below the 38.2% of the cpi drop fib.
Support: 0.55652, 0.5550
Resistance: 0.5580, 0.55958, 0.56192
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.5580 old low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5565 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5550 psych level
A close above the lower-high trendline and the 0.5596 cpi bar high (near the 38.2% of the cpi drop fib) would end the post-CPI sequence
The Beige Book at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
15:16 UTC
Downtrend, extended after CPI · RSI 27 · price 0.55685
Post-CPI lower highs, fresh session low.
The hot US core CPI print (0.3% vs 0.2%) at 12:30 GMT knocked NZDUSD about 36 pips off the 0.5619 pre-CPI high in a single bar. That erased the Asian-session push to 0.5630. Through NY hours the pair has printed lower highs and broken the 0.5580 prior low, setting a session low at 0.5565 with RSI(14) near 27 and ATR around 9 pips.
Support: 0.55652, 0.5560
Resistance: 0.5580, 0.55958, 0.56193
What it said to watch
A recovery back above the 0.5580 prior low would turn the break into a false break
A close above the 0.5596 bounce high and the lower-highs trendline neutralises the post-CPI downtrend; the 38.2% retracement of the CPI drop sits near 0.5586
Failure to hold the 0.5565 session low exposes the 0.5600 round number's lower counterpart at 0.5560
Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could extend or unwind the CPI move
A full retrace to the 0.5619 pre-CPI high would mark a complete reversal of the CPI move
Breakdown from Asian/London range, lower highs under 0.5596.
The hot US core CPI print at 12:30 GMT broke NZDUSD below its Asian/London range in a single 36-pip bar. Price then made a session low at 0.5569, under the 0.5580 17m low. The NY session bounce is stalling at 0.5580 as a retest from below, with lower highs under the 0.5596 cpi bounce high and RSI(14) near 26.
Support: 0.55691, 0.5560
Resistance: 0.5580, 0.55958, 0.56112
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above 0.5580 (17m low) negates the retest-and-reject read.
Failure to hold the 0.5569 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5560 round number.
A reclaim of the 0.5596 cpi bounce high, near the 50% fib of the cpi drop, breaks the lower highs; the 0.5611 pre-cpi base sits above.
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read.
14:31 UTC
Downtrend, impulsive post-CPI leg · RSI 28 · price 0.55775
Lower highs after CPI break of 17m low.
Hot US core CPI (0.3% vs 0.2%) at 12:30 GMT broke the Asian and London range. The pair fell from 0.5619 through the 0.5611 london low and the 0.5580 17m low, reaching a 0.5569 cpi low in the first hours of NY. Since then the CPI drop has printed lower highs at 0.5596 and 0.5590, and price is retesting 0.5580 from below with RSI(14) near 28.
Support: 0.55691, 0.5550
Resistance: 0.5580, 0.55958, 0.56112
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.5580 (17m low) would turn the break into a false break
Close below the 0.5569 cpi low extends the NY session leg toward the 0.5550 round number
Close above the 0.5596 post-cpi hi ends the lower-high sequence and opens the CPI drop fib retracement
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
14:17 UTC
Downtrend, impulsive post-CPI leg · RSI 18 · price 0.5575
Range break lower, lower highs since CPI.
The hot US core CPI print (0.3% vs 0.2%) at 12:30 GMT broke NZDUSD out of its 0.5611–0.5630 Asia/London range. A 36-pip bar took out the 0.5580 17m low and the NY session has printed a cpi low at 0.5569. Since the 0.5596 cpi bounce the pair has carved out lower highs, with RSI(14) near 18 and the 0.5619 pre-cpi high well above.
Support: 0.55691
Resistance: 0.5580, 0.55958, 0.56193
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5569 cpi low extends the post-CPI leg to fresh lows
M15 close back above 0.5580 (former 17m low) would turn the break into a potential false break
Close above the 0.5596 cpi bounce / 50% fib of the cpi drop breaks the lower highs sequence
Recovery to the 0.5619 pre-cpi high would fully retrace the CPI move
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read
Broke below the 0.5611–0.5630 intraday range; lower highs since the US CPI release.
The Asian session high at 0.5629 faded through London. The hot US core CPI (0.3% m/m vs 0.2%) then knocked the pair 36 pips in one bar from the 0.5619 pre-CPI high. NY hours extended through the 0.5580 17-month low to a 0.5571 session low, with RSI(14) near 16 and post-CPI highs at 0.5596 and 0.5590 stepping lower.
Support: 0.55711, 0.5550
Resistance: 0.5580, 0.55958, 0.56192
What it said to watch
A close back above 0.5580 (17m low) would mark the break as a false break.
Failure to hold the 0.5571 session low leaves the 0.5550 round number as the next reference.
Recovery through 0.5596 post-cpi hi (≈50% fib of the post-cpi drop) breaks the lower-high sequence; 0.5619 pre-cpi high caps above.
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read.
13:46 UTC
Downtrend after CPI flush, basing early NY · RSI 22 · price 0.55831
Hot US core CPI at 12:30 UTC broke the pair out of the 0.5611-0.5630 Asia/London range in a single 36-pip bar, and the cpi low at 0.5578 printed just under the 17-month low near 0.5580. Early NY is boxed between 0.5578 and the 0.5596 bounce high, with the post-cpi hi at 0.5590 capping since. RSI(14) near 22 is stretched, and bounces have stalled short of the 38.2% retrace of the CPI drop.
Support: 0.5578
Resistance: 0.5590, 0.5596, 0.5611
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the cpi low at 0.5578 confirms a fresh 17-month low
M15 close above the 0.5596 bounce high exposes the 50% retrace near 0.5599 and the london low at 0.5611
Holding below the post-cpi hi at 0.5590 keeps the box intact
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could extend or fade the CPI move
Range break lower, holding near the 0.5580 17-month low.
Hot US core CPI at 12:30 GMT drove a 36-pip bar from the 0.5619 pre-CPI high through the 0.5611 London low. The pair extended to a 0.5578 post-CPI low, marginally under the 0.5580 17-month low. RSI(14) is oversold near 23 and the early NY bounce has stalled at the 0.5596 bounce high, with price now pinned near 0.5585.
Support: 0.55779
Resistance: 0.55958, 0.56112, 0.56193
What it said to watch
A sustained break below the 0.5578 post-cpi low confirms a lower-low through the 17-month low
A reclaim of the 0.5596 bounce high would mark the first sign of a post-CPI base
A return above the 0.5611 london low puts price back inside the prior session range and below the 38.2% fib of the Asian high to post-CPI low drop
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could extend or fade the CPI move
13:16 UTC
Downtrend, CPI-driven leg lower · RSI 25 · price 0.55867
Lower highs since Asia high, range break below 0.5611.
The hot US core CPI print knocked NZDUSD about 36 pips through the 0.5611 london low and the 0.5600 round number in one bar. That extended the London lower highs sequence from the 0.5630 Asia high. Price is now compressing early in NY hours just above the 0.5580 cpi low, which is also the 17-month low, with the 0.5596 cpi bounce capping and RSI(14) near 25.
Support: 0.55802
Resistance: 0.55958, 0.5600, 0.56112
What it said to watch
A break of the 0.5580 cpi low puts the pair at fresh 17-month lows.
A recovery above the 0.5596 cpi bounce and the 0.5600 round number (38.2% of the asia high-cpi low fib) would signal the CPI move fading.
A reclaim of the 0.5611 london low (near the 61.8% fib) would negate the range break.
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could extend or unwind the CPI move.
The hot US core CPI print at 12:30 UTC drove NZDUSD 36 pips through the London low at 0.5611 to a 0.5583 CPI low. That reversed the Asian-session push to 0.5630 and leaves price just above the 0.5580 17-month low. The first-hour-of-NY CPI bounce stalled at 0.5596, under the 38.2% retracement of the drop, with RSI(14) near 20 in oversold territory.
Support: 0.55829, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.55958, 0.56112, 0.56192
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.5583 CPI low exposes the 0.5580 17-month low
Acceptance above the 0.5596 CPI bounce high and 38.2% fib would mark the first recovery leg
A return above the 0.5611 London low would undercut the range break read
A move back above the 0.5619 pre-CPI high would put the pre-release structure back in play
Fed's Bowman (14:55 UTC) and the Beige Book (18:00 UTC) could extend or fade the CPI move
London lower highs resolved in a CPI breakdown below the London low; price sits on the 17m low.
The US CPI release at 12:30 GMT drove a 36-pip drop from the 0.5619 pre-cpi high to a 0.5583 cpi low. That erased the Asian-session rally and cut through the 0.5611 london low, leaving price just above the 0.5580 17m low with RSI(14) near 20. Lower highs off the 0.5630 asian high had already capped the pair through London ahead of the print.
Support: 0.55829, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.56112, 0.56192, 0.56295
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.5580 17m low extends the lower-low sequence into fresh lows since April 2025
Retracement of the CPI drop: 38.2–50% sits at 0.5597–0.5601; holding below there keeps the impulse intact
A reclaim of the 0.5611 london low would neutralise the breakdown read; the 0.5619 pre-cpi high is the next cap
Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could extend post-CPI volatility; the 4.8-pip ATR understates current bar ranges
12:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 25 · price 0.56001
Lower-high chain from Asia high; CPI bar broke London low.
Lower highs have run since the Asia high at 0.5630, and London faded to a 0.5611 low before the US CPI release bar dropped about 19 pips. That bar tagged the 0.5600 round number and broke below the London low. RSI(14) sits near 25 and the CPI-bar range is roughly five times ATR(14).
Support: 0.5600, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.5611, 0.5619, 0.5630
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.5611 london low would mark the CPI drop as a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5600 round number exposes the 0.5580 17-month low
Close above the 0.5619 pre-CPI high and the lower-highs line invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Bowman at 14:55 GMT and the Beige Book at 18:00 GMT could extend post-CPI volatility
12:04 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 37 · price 0.56152
LH/LL chain from 0.5630 Asian high, sitting at session low base.
The Asian rally on softer yields stalled at the 0.5630 asian high, right at the digest's 0.5620-0.5630 cap. London then printed lower highs at 0.5625 and 0.5620 and gave back the full asian leg to a 0.5611 session low. Price is holding just above that base below both EMAs, RSI(14) near 37, with US CPI minutes away.
Support: 0.56112, 0.56077
Resistance: 0.56196, 0.56251, 0.56295
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; expect range expansion well beyond the 2.6-pip ATR
M15 close above the 0.5620 swing high and the lower-high trendline breaks the descending sequence
Failure to hold the 0.5611 session low exposes yesterday's ny low at 0.5608
A return above the 0.5625 london high puts the 0.5630 asian high cap back in play
11:46 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since London open · RSI 35 · price 0.56152
Lower highs and lower lows off the 0.56295 asian high; bounce from the 0.56112 london low.
The Asia rally from the 0.5610 rally base stalled at the 0.56295 asian high, just under the 0.5630 cap. London has printed lower highs from the 0.56251 london high since and retraced more than 61.8% of the Asia leg. Price is now bouncing off the 0.56112 london low but remains below the broken london shelf near 0.5617 heading into US CPI.
Support: 0.56112, 0.56099
Resistance: 0.56171, 0.56251, 0.56295
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; current ATR of ~2.5 pips understates the event range
M15 close above the london shelf at 0.56171 and the London lower-highs line challenges the intraday downtrend read
Failure to hold the london low at 0.56112 exposes the rally base at 0.56099, a full retrace of the Asia leg
Reclaim of the london high at 0.56251 puts the asian high and the 0.5630 cap back in play
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT is a secondary risk after the CPI print
11:31 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs since Asia · RSI 27 · price 0.56124
Asia rally fully retraced; London stepping lower into yesterday's NY base.
The Asia rally on softer US yields hit a rejection at the 0.5630 asia high, just under the weekly 0.5620-0.5630 cap. London has since printed a chain of lower highs from the 0.5625 london high and cut through the 0.5618 broken low, giving back the whole Asia move to the 0.5611 session low inside yesterday's NY range. RSI(14) is near 27 and ATR is about 2.4 pips, with ranges compressed ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.56113, 0.56077
Resistance: 0.56175, 0.56251, 0.56295
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT, about 1h away, can override this intraday structure on either side
Failure to hold the 0.5611 session low exposes the 0.5608 prior low from yesterday's NY session
An M15 close back above the 0.5618 broken low and the lower highs line would reopen the 0.5625 london high
Clearing the 0.5630 asia high would mark the first break of the weekly cap
LH/LL sequence from the 0.5630 Asia high, nearly all Asian gains erased.
The Asia session rally on softer yields stalled at the 0.5630 asia high, matching the weekly cap, and was rejected. Mid-London, price has slid along a line of lower highs from the 0.5625 london high and is back at 0.5613, just above the 0.5610 asia low. RSI(14) is near 28 and ATR is about 2.4 pips, with ranges compressed ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.5610, 0.56077
Resistance: 0.56182, 0.56251, 0.56295
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (core MoM f/c 0.2%), about 75 min out, could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 0.5610 asia low exposes yesterday's 0.5608 prior low
A close above the 0.5618 lower high breaks the London lower-highs trendline; the 0.5625 london high sits above
A reclaim of the 0.5630 asia high would mark a break of the weekly cap
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asia high; London below 0.5618 pivot.
The Asia rally from 0.5610 met rejection at the 0.5630 asia high, in line with the digest's 0.5620-0.5630 cap. London has printed lower highs off its 0.5625 london high and slipped through the 61.8% fib of that rally at 0.5618. Price is now pressing the 0.5615 london low late in the London session, with RSI(14) at 34 and the US CPI release about 90 minutes out.
Support: 0.56149, 0.56099, 0.56077
Resistance: 0.56175, 0.56251, 0.56295
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 GMT, with core MoM against the 0.2% forecast, could materially shift this read in the first hour of NY
M15 close below the 0.5615 london low extends the lower-low chain toward the 0.5610 asia low and the 0.5608 prior low
Reclaim of the 0.5618 61.8% fib and the lower-highs trendline weakens the downtrend read
A break above the 0.5625 london high and the 0.5630 asia high would breach the cap that has held all session
10:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend off the Asia high · RSI 34 · price 0.5617
Lower highs and lower lows through London, back inside yesterday's range.
The Asia rally on softer yields stalled at a 0.5630 asia high, right at the 0.5620-0.5630 cap. London has since retraced about 70% of that move with lower highs under a falling trendline, printing a 0.5616 london low ahead of US CPI. Price sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 34, back inside yesterday's 0.5608-0.5618 range.
Support: 0.56157, 0.5612, 0.56077
Resistance: 0.5621, 0.56251, 0.56295
What it said to watch
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (about 1.75h out) could materially shift this read; core MoM vs 0.2% is the key print
An M15 close above the 0.5621 lower high breaks the falling trendline and the London lower-high sequence, with the 0.5625 london high next
Failure to hold the 0.5616 london low exposes the 0.5612 asian low and the 0.5608 prior low
A move back through the 0.5630 asia high would be a break of the week's cap
10:31 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since Asia · RSI 33 · price 0.56175
Asian rally capped at 0.5630, London printing lower highs into 0.5617 base.
The Asian session rally on softer yields and oil stalled at the 0.5630 asian high, inside the weekly cap. London has since made lower highs at 0.5625 (london high) and 0.5622, and is holding the 0.5617 session low, which also sits on the 61.8% retracement of the Asian rally. RSI(14) near 33 and price below both EMAs show the drift lower; ATR is about 2.5 pips with ranges compressed ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.56171, 0.5614
Resistance: 0.56251, 0.56295
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.5617 session low breaks the double low and exposes the 0.5614 rally base
A close above the 0.5625 london high and the lower-high trendline would break the lower-high sequence
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read; a soft print sets up a retest of the 0.5630 asian high
10:16 UTC
Pullback from Asia high, compressing · RSI 38 · price 0.5618
Lower highs from 0.5630 against a flat 0.5617 floor.
The Asia session rally from the 0.5610 rally base, driven by softer yields and oil, met rejection at the 0.5630 asia high, the weekly cap. Since then the pair has printed lower highs at 0.5627 and 0.5625 against a flat floor at the 0.5617 london low, which coincides with the 61.8% fib of the Asia leg. Price is compressing below EMA20/50 into US CPI, with ATR(14) at just 2.5 pips.
Support: 0.5617, 0.5610
Resistance: 0.5625, 0.5630
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5617 london low confirms a lower low and a 61.8% failure, exposing the 0.5610 rally base
M15 close above the 0.5625 lower high breaks the descending lower-high line and puts the 0.5630 asia high back in play
US CPI at 12:30 GMT, about 2h away, is likely to break the current compression either way; core MoM vs 0.2% f/c is the key figure
10:03 UTC
Pullback from Asian spike, lower highs · RSI 38 · price 0.5618
Lower highs from 0.5630, price pressing the 0.5617 London low.
Asia session lifted the pair out of the prior day's 0.5610–0.5617 range to an asian high at 0.5630, tagging the weekly 0.5620–0.5630 cap on softer US yields and oil. Price was rejected there and has printed lower highs since, with the london high at 0.5625. It now sits on the 0.5617 london low, at the 61.8% retracement of the Asia rally, with RSI(14) near 38 and ATR around 2.6 pips ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.56171, 0.56099
Resistance: 0.56251, 0.56295
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5617 london low breaks the 61.8% retracement and exposes the 0.5610 prior low
Reclaim of the 0.5625 london high breaks the lower-high trendline from the asian high
Acceptance above the 0.5630 asian high would clear the weekly cap
US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read; ATR suggests the current compression is unlikely to survive the release
Fed's Bowman at 14:55 GMT is a secondary risk to the session range
09:46 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 41 · price 0.56177
Asia breakout faded; London printing lower highs into session low.
Asia's yield- and oil-driven push stalled at 0.56295, inside the 0.5620-0.5630 cap. The London open bounce failed at 0.56251 and the lower high at 0.56225 followed. Price is now sitting on the 0.56171 session low and below the 61.8% of the Asia rally fib, RSI(14) near 41 with ATR around 2.6 pips as ranges compress ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.56171, 0.5614, 0.5610
Resistance: 0.56225, 0.56251, 0.56295
What it said to watch
A close below the 0.56171 session low exposes the 0.5614 asia base, then the 0.5610 range floor from Monday
A close back above the 0.56225 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline; the 0.56251 london high is next
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read, with the 0.56295 asia high marking the range cap
Fed's Bowman remarks today could move USD before CPI
09:31 UTC
Intraday pullback after Asia rally · RSI 44 · price 0.56185
Lower highs through London, holding near prior-day high.
Softer yields lifted the pair through the prior-day high in Asia to 0.5630, where it hit the 0.5620-0.5630 cap and was rejected. London has printed lower highs at 0.5627 and the 0.5625 london high. Price is now testing the 0.5617 london low, the 61.8% of the Asia rally and the old 0.5618 prior-day high, below EMA20/50 with ATR(14) under 3 pips ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.56171, 0.56145, 0.56099
Resistance: 0.56251, 0.56295
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5617 london low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 0.5614 asia base and the 0.5610 rally origin
Reclaim of the 0.5625 london high breaks the lower-high trendline and puts the 0.5630 asian high back in play
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read; Fed's Bowman at 09:40 GMT is a nearer risk
09:16 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 41 · price 0.56177
Lower-high sequence from 0.5630, price at the session low.
The Asia session rally from the 0.5610 rally base was rejected at the 0.5630 asia high, which matches the weekly cap in the digest. Since then the pair has made lower highs at 0.5627 and the 0.5625 london high. Early London is now probing the 0.5617 session low, right at the 61.8% retrace of that leg. RSI(14) is near 41 and ATR is about 2.8 pips as the market waits for US CPI.
Support: 0.56172, 0.56099
Resistance: 0.56251, 0.56295
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5617 session low confirms a lower-low and opens the 0.5610 rally base
Close above the lower-high trendline and the 0.5625 london high negates the pullback read
A return to the 0.5630 asia high retests the weekly cap noted in the digest
US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read; a soft core print squeezes NZD, a hot one extends the fade
09:05 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since Asia high · RSI 38 · price 0.56182
Lower highs from 0.5630 against a flat 0.5618 floor.
The Asian session lifted the pair from 0.5610 to a 0.56295 Asia high, and it was rejected just under the 0.5630 cap. It has printed lower highs at 0.5627 and then the 0.5625 London high since. London is holding a 0.5618 floor, the london low, at the 61.8% fib of the Asian rally, with RSI(14) near 38 and price below both EMAs ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.5618, 0.5614
Resistance: 0.5625, 0.56295
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5618 london low breaks the floor and exposes the 0.5614 prior range top from yesterday
M15 close above the 0.5625 london high breaks the lower-high trendline and puts the 0.56295 Asia high back in view
US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read; core m/m vs 0.2% is the swing factor
08:46 UTC
Asia rally stalled, lower highs in London · RSI 41 · price 0.56203
Tight consolidation 0.5618–0.5625 below Asian high.
Asia lifted NZDUSD out of yesterday's 0.5608–0.5617 prior range on a softer USD and lower yields, topping at the 0.5630 asian high. London has added lower highs at the 0.5625 london high, while the 0.5618 session low has held near the 61.8% of the Asia rally. Price is pinned on EMA50 and below EMA20, RSI(14) 41 and ATR about 2.9 pips ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.5618, 0.5614
Resistance: 0.5625, 0.5630
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5618 session low exposes the 0.5614 prior range top
M15 close above the 0.5625 london high breaks the lower-highs trendline. The 0.5630 asian high also matches the week's cap.
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (about 3.75h away) and Fed's Bowman at 09:40 GMT could materially shift this read
08:31 UTC
Asia rally stalling, lower highs into London · RSI 44 · price 0.56209
Pullback inside Asian range, compressing between 0.5618 and 0.5625.
The Asia session rally on softer US yields after Williams' remarks peaked at the 0.56295 session high. That top sits just under the 0.5625-0.5630 cap, and highs have stepped lower since (0.56274, then the 0.56251 London high). Early London is holding the 50-61.8% fib of the Asian leg, with the 0.56175 swing low and 0.56185 London low marking the floor ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.56185, 0.56175, 0.5612
Resistance: 0.56251, 0.56295
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.56175 swing low breaks the Asian higher-low structure and exposes the 0.5612 asian low
Close above the 0.56251 London high and the lower-highs trendline puts the 0.56295 session high back in play
Bowman at 09:40 GMT and US CPI at 12:30 GMT can materially shift this read; ATR near 2.8 pips understates event risk
Lower highs from 0.5630 Asian high; London range 0.5618–0.5625.
Asia lifted NZD/USD from the 0.5610 rally base to a 0.5630 Asian high on a softer USD after Williams' remarks and lower yields, but the pair has since printed a lower high at 0.5627 and an early-London rejection at 0.5625. Price is holding the 0.5618 London low and the 0.56175 Asian low, which sits on the 61.8% retracement. Ranges are compressed ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.56185, 0.56175, 0.56099
Resistance: 0.56251, 0.56274, 0.56295
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.56175 Asian low breaks the 61.8% retracement and confirms a lower-low; next reference is the 0.5610 rally base
M15 close above the 0.5625 London high breaks the lower-high trendline and reopens the 0.5627 lower high and 0.5630 Asian high
US CPI at 12:30 GMT can materially shift this read; ATR near 3 pips understates the likely release move
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 GMT could move USD within the London session
08:05 UTC
Pullback from Asia high, lower highs forming · RSI 42 · price 0.56187
Lower highs off the 0.5630 asian high; price at the 61.8% fib near the london low.
Asia session ran about 20 pips to the 0.5630 asian high as US yields eased after Williams' remarks, then met rejection at the cap that has held all week. Lower highs at 0.5627 and 0.5625 have pulled price back to the 61.8% fib of the Asia rally at the 0.5618 london low in the first hour of London. Price sits just under EMA20 and EMA50, RSI(14) near 42, ATR about 2.8 pips.
Support: 0.56175, 0.56099
Resistance: 0.56251, 0.56295
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.5618 london low breaks the 61.8% fib and exposes the 0.5610 asian low (rollover spike excluded)
Close above the 0.5625 london high clears the lower-high trendline and reopens the 0.5630 asian high
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% m/m) and Bowman at 09:40 GMT could materially shift this read
Lower highs off Asian high, lows holding at fib support.
Asia extended the rebound on softer US yields to an Asian high at 0.56295, inside the 0.5626-0.5630 cap, and has since printed a lower high at 0.56274 and a London high at 0.56251. Early London is holding above the 0.56198 swing low and the 0.56175 pullback low, which sit near the 50% and 61.8% of the Asia rally fib. RSI(14) is neutral at 44 ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.56198, 0.56175, 0.5612
Resistance: 0.56251, 0.56274, 0.56295
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56295 Asian high clears the falling lower-high trendline and the 0.5630 cap
Failure to hold the 0.56175 pullback low (61.8%) exposes the 0.5612 asian base
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 GMT and US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
07:32 UTC
Sideways after Asia leg up, lower highs forming · RSI 51 · price 0.56239
Broken prior-day high at 0.5618 retested and holding; 0.5618–0.5630 box.
The Asia session leg cleared yesterday's 0.5618 prior high and stalled at the 0.5630 asian high, the cap flagged in the digest as softer US yields lifted the Kiwi. The pullback held the 0.5618 swing low at the 61.8% fib, a retest of the broken high. Early London is pressing the lower-highs line near the 0.5625 london high, with RSI(14) neutral at 51.
Support: 0.56175, 0.5611
Resistance: 0.56251, 0.56274, 0.56295
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.5625 london high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 0.5627 lower high and 0.5630 asian high
Failure to hold the 0.5618 swing low negates the retest and exposes the 0.5611 rally base
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% m/m) and Bowman at 09:40 GMT could materially shift this read
07:17 UTC
Intraday up, correcting off Asian high · RSI 51 · price 0.56226
Lower highs from 0.5630, 61.8% fib holding.
The Asia session broke above the prior NY range from 0.5615 and topped at the 0.5630 Asian high, inside the week's 0.5625-0.5630 cap, as USD eased after Williams' remarks. Since then the pair has printed lower highs at 0.5627 and 0.5625, while the 06:00 UTC dip held the 61.8% fib at 0.5618. The London open is trading mid-range near 0.5623, below the 0.5625 london high, with ATR at about 2.7 pips ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.56198, 0.56175, 0.56145
Resistance: 0.56249, 0.56274, 0.56295
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.5630 Asian high breaks the lower-high sequence and clears the week's cap
Failure to hold the 0.5618 61.8% fib confirms a lower-low and exposes the 0.5615 breakout base
Repeated rejection at the 0.5625 london high keeps the lower-high trendline intact
Bowman at 09:40 GMT and US CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read
Asian break above prior high, lower high, retest of breakout.
The Asian rally broke above yesterday's 0.5618 high on softer US yields but stalled at 0.5630, the asian high and the week's cap, and has since printed a lower high at 0.5627. At London open the pullback is holding the 0.5618 prior high, which lines up with the 61.8% retrace of the Asian rally. RSI(14) is flat near 51 and ATR is about 2.7 pips ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.5618, 0.5612
Resistance: 0.5627, 0.5630
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5618 prior high undoes the Asian breakout and exposes the 0.5612 asian low
Close above the 0.5627 lower high and the 0.5630 asian high clears the week's cap
US CPI at 12:30 GMT could set the next leg; Bowman at 09:40 GMT is a secondary risk
Lower high under 0.5630 Asian high, 61.8% fib holding.
The Asian session rally from the 0.5610 asia base stalled at the 0.5630 Asian high, the week's cap, after easing US yields lifted NZD. The pullback held the 61.8% fib at 0.5618, but a lower high at 0.5627 keeps price ranging near 0.5622 into London open.
Support: 0.56175, 0.5610
Resistance: 0.56274, 0.56295
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5630 Asian high breaks the week's cap and the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.5618 61.8% fib exposes the 0.5610 asia base
US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
06:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalling, lower high in place · RSI 47 · price 0.56193
Asian rally capped near 0.5630; lower-high/lower-low pullback testing the prior high.
The Asia session extended NZD's bounce from the 0.5610 asian base to a 0.56295 asian high as the USD correction continued, but the rally met rejection at the 0.5626-0.5630 cap and has since printed a lower high at 0.5627. Price is back at the 50% retracement of the Asian rally into London open, retesting yesterday's prior high at 0.5618 with RSI(14) neutral near 47 and price sitting just under EMA20.
Support: 0.5618, 0.5610
Resistance: 0.5627, 0.56295
What it said to watch
An M15 close below 0.5618 (prior high, 61.8% of the Asian rally) would confirm a lower low and expose the 0.5610 asian base
A reclaim of the 0.5627 lower high reopens the 0.56295 asian high and the 0.5630 cap
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 GMT and US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Asian high rejected at 0.5630, lower high at 0.5627, pullback retesting the prior-high breakout zone.
The Asia session rally broke yesterday's 0.5618 prior high as the USD pullback extended. It stalled at the 0.5630 Asian high, the cap flagged in the NZD digest, then printed a lower high at 0.5627. Ahead of London open, price is back on the 0.5618 breakout zone, holding the 61.8% retrace of the Asia rally, with RSI(14) near 38 and price sitting on EMA50.
Support: 0.5618, 0.5610
Resistance: 0.5627, 0.5630
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5618 prior high and the 61.8% retrace exposes the 0.5610 Asian low
Reclaim of the 0.5627 lower high puts the 0.5630 Asian high back in play
US CPI at 12:30 GMT can override the intraday structure; Bowman at 09:40 GMT is earlier risk
London open in about 45 minutes typically expands the 0.5618–0.5630 Asian range
06:04 UTC
Asia uptrend stalling, lower high printed · RSI 42 · price 0.56197
Pullback from Asia high to swing low support.
Asia broke the prior NY high at 0.5618 and ran into the 0.5626-0.5630 cap on softer US yields. It was rejected at the 0.5630 Asia high and then printed a lower high at 0.5627. Late in the Asia session, ahead of London open, price is back on the 0.5620 swing low at the 50% fib of the Asia base-to-high leg, sitting under EMA20 and on EMA50 with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 0.56198, 0.56181, 0.56099
Resistance: 0.56274, 0.56295
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 0.5620 swing low confirms a lower low and exposes the 0.5618 ny high
A close back above the 0.5627 lower high reopens the 0.5630 Asia high and cap
Losing 0.5610, the Asia base, unwinds the whole Asia leg
Bowman at 09:40 GMT and US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
05:46 UTC
Asian breakout higher, now stalling · RSI 50 · price 0.56229
Lower high under 0.5630, pullback into 38.2% fib.
The Asia session cleared the prior NY high at 0.5617 on softer US yields. The move ran to an Asian high at 0.5630, inside the 0.5626-0.5630 cap, and was rejected there. A lower high at 0.5627 has followed, and price is sitting on the 38.2% fib near 0.5622 just above the 0.5620 swing low, about an hour before London open.
Support: 0.5620, 0.56169
Resistance: 0.56274, 0.56295
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5620 swing low exposes the prior NY high at 0.5617 and the 50-61.8% fib zone
M15 close above the 0.5627 lower high and the 0.5630 Asian high breaks the rejection read
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 GMT during London hours
05:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling under cap · RSI 54 · price 0.5625
Higher low at 0.5620 after 0.5630 Asia high; minor lower high at 0.5627.
Asia extended the USD-softness rebound through the 0.5617 NY high, from the 0.5610 Asia low to the 0.5630 Asia high, where the cap cited in the news rejected the move. The pullback held the 0.5620 swing low at the 50% fib, and price is coiling under a 0.5627 lower high with RSI(14) neutral and ATR(14) under 3 pips ahead of London open.
Support: 0.5620, 0.5617, 0.5610
Resistance: 0.5627, 0.5630
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5630 Asia high breaks the cap that has repeatedly held
Failure to hold the 0.5620 swing low and rising support exposes the 0.5617 NY high, then the 0.5610 Asia low
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 GMT and US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
05:16 UTC
Uptrend, pausing below Asia high · RSI 56 · price 0.5626
Asia breakout above prior NY high, higher low at 50% retrace.
Asia session lifted NZDUSD from the 0.5610 asia base through yesterday's 0.5618 prior high, tagging an asia high at 0.56295 into the 0.5626-0.5630 cap as US yields eased. The pullback held the 0.5620 swing low, the 50% retracement of the overnight leg. Late Asia now sees price compressing at 0.5626 under a 0.56274 lower high, with RSI(14) neutral near 56.
Support: 0.5620, 0.5618, 0.5610
Resistance: 0.56274, 0.56295
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.56295 asia high clears the 0.5630 cap that has repeatedly capped rallies
A close back under the 0.5620 swing low puts the 0.5618 prior high retest in play; losing that exposes the 0.5610 asia base
Holding below the 0.56274 lower high through London open keeps the session compression intact
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; Bowman at 09:40 GMT is an earlier headline risk
05:05 UTC
Uptrend, pausing under cap · RSI 61 · price 0.56265
Asia HH/HL chain; 50% pullback held, retesting session high.
Asia extended the softer-yield rebound off the 0.5612 asia low, cleared the prior NY high at 0.5618 and printed an asia high at 0.5630 before a 50% fib pullback held at the 0.5620 swing low. Price is back at 0.5627, just under the 0.5626-0.5630 cap, with RSI(14) near 61 and ATR(14) about 2.7 pips heading into London open.
Support: 0.56198, 0.56181, 0.5612
Resistance: 0.56295
What it said to watch
M15 close above 0.5630 asia high clears the 0.5626-0.5630 cap that has repeatedly held rallies
Break below the 0.5620 swing low and the 0.5618 prior high ends the asia HH/HL chain and the trendline support
US CPI at 12:30 GMT, core f/c 0.2% m/m, could materially shift this read
Bowman at 09:40 GMT is an early USD headline risk during London session
Asia broke above Tuesday's NY range; higher low held on a 50% pullback.
Asia session cleared Tuesday's 0.5608–0.5618 NY range top as US yields eased. Price tagged the 0.5630 Asia high, and the 50% pullback to 0.5620 formed a higher low. It is now back at 0.5627, just under the 0.5626–0.5630 cap, with RSI(14) near 61 and ATR(14) around 2.8 pips heading into London open.
Support: 0.56198, 0.56181, 0.56099
Resistance: 0.56295
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5630 Asia high clears the 0.5626–0.5630 cap
Loss of the 0.5620 pullback low puts the 0.5618 range top retest in play; a close back inside the range turns the breakout into a false break
A slide toward the 0.5610 Asia base unwinds the session's advance
US CPI at 12:30 GMT and Fed's Bowman at 09:40 GMT could materially shift this read
04:31 UTC
Uptrend, pausing below cap · RSI 58 · price 0.56247
Asia HH/HL chain, rejection at session high.
Asia extended the soft-yield rebound from the 0.5610 asia base, cleared the 0.5618 prior high and tagged the 0.56295 asia high inside the 0.5626-0.5630 cap before a rejection. The pullback held the 50% retracement at the 0.5620 pullback low. Price sits back near 0.5625 late in Asia with RSI(14) at 58 and ATR near 3 pips, ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.56198, 0.56181, 0.56099
Resistance: 0.56295
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.5620 pullback low breaks the Asia HL chain and exposes the 0.5618 prior high
Close above the 0.56295 asia high clears the 0.5626-0.5630 cap
Break of the Asia rising trendline, then the 0.5610 asia base, unwinds the Asia rally
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 GMT and US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
Asia broke above yesterday's 0.5618 prior high on softer US yields and a weaker dollar, then rejected at the 0.5630 session high, the 0.5626-0.5630 cap noted in the market context. The pullback found demand at the 0.5620 swing low, the 50% fib of the Asia low-to-high leg, and price is holding just above the rising trendline in late Asia with RSI(14) near 58.
Support: 0.5620, 0.56181, 0.5610
Resistance: 0.56295
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5630 session high breaks the cap and extends the Asia HH chain
Failure to hold the 0.5620 swing low and rising trendline puts the 0.5618 prior high back in play, then the 0.5610 asia low
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; Fed's Bowman at 09:40 GMT is an earlier risk
04:04 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from highs · RSI 52 · price 0.56218
Asia broke above NY range, rejected at 0.5630 cap.
Late Asia session. Softer US yields lifted NZDUSD from the 0.5610 asia base out of Tuesday's 0.5608–0.5618 NY range to a session high at 0.5630, tagging the 0.5626–0.5630 cap before a rejection. Price is now holding the 0.5620 swing low at the 50% fib of the Asia leg, with RSI(14) neutral near 52 and ATR(14) about 3 pips.
Support: 0.5620, 0.56181, 0.56099
Resistance: 0.5626, 0.56295
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5620 swing low puts the 0.5618 NY high, the old range top, up for a retest
A close above the 0.5626 cap low and the 0.5630 session high breaks the cap that has repeatedly held
London open in about 3h and Fed's Bowman at 09:40 GMT can extend the session range
US CPI at 12:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
03:46 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 59 · price 0.5622
Asia HH/HL chain broke prior-day high; lower high printed after rejection at 0.5630.
Asia session cleared yesterday's 0.5618 prior high on softer US yields and ran into the 0.5626-0.5630 cap, rejecting at the 0.5630 session high. The pullback has left a lower high at 0.5626 and sits on the 38.2% retracement near 0.5622, with the 50% fib at 0.5620 and the prior high just below. RSI(14) has cooled to about 59 and ATR(14) is roughly 3 pips.
Support: 0.5620, 0.56181, 0.56099
Resistance: 0.56264, 0.56295
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5618 prior high would mark the breakout as failed and put the 0.5610 asian low in play
Break and hold above the 0.5630 session high clears the cap that has repeatedly held rallies
US CPI at 12:30 GMT, plus Fed's Bowman at 09:40 GMT, could materially shift this read
03:31 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at session high · RSI 66 · price 0.56251
Asia HH/HL chain broke the NY high; pullback off 0.5630.
Late in the Asia session, NZD/USD extended its second-day bounce on softer US yields. Price broke the 0.5618 NY high and printed a session high at 0.5630, at the weekly range cap. The last two bars closed lower with RSI(14) near 66, and the 0.5622 swing low, which lines up with the 38.2% fib of the Asia leg, is the first shelf below.
Support: 0.56222, 0.56181
Resistance: 0.56295
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5630 session high takes price out of the weekly range cap
Failure to hold the 0.5622 swing low exposes a retest of the 0.5618 ny high (61.8% fib)
Fed's Bowman at 09:40 GMT and US CPI at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
03:16 UTC
Uptrend, RSI elevated · RSI 76 · price 0.56279
HH/HL chain through Asia, above yesterday's range.
Mid-Asia session extended the rebound on softer US yields. Price broke above yesterday's 0.5618 prior high, retested it at 0.5619 and is now pressing the 0.5626-0.5630 range cap with RSI(14) near 76. The 0.5622 swing low is the nearest higher low, sitting at the 38.2% fib of the 0.5610 Asian low to 0.56295 leg.
Support: 0.56222, 0.56185, 0.56099
Resistance: 0.5630
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5630 range cap breaks the weekly range top
Loss of the 0.5622 swing low and the rising trendline breaks the HH/HL chain
Close back below the 0.5619 prior high puts price back inside yesterday's range, with 0.5610 asian low next
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read; Bowman at 09:40 UTC first
03:04 UTC
Uptrend, pressing range cap · RSI 77 · price 0.56263
Asia HH/HL chain above yesterday's high.
Asia session extended the second-day bounce on softer US yields. Price cleared yesterday's 0.5618 prior high from the 0.5610 asia low and printed a session high at 0.5627, right under the 0.5630 range cap. RSI(14) sits near 77 with ATR around 3 pips, and the HL chain is intact above the 0.5622 swing low.
Support: 0.56222, 0.56181, 0.56099
Resistance: 0.56267, 0.5630
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 0.5627 session high / 0.5630 range cap would leave the asia uptrend line exposed
M15 close below the 0.5622 swing low breaks the HL chain; 0.5618 prior high, near the 50% fib of the Asia leg, is next
Loss of the 0.5610 asia low would erase the Asia leg entirely
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
02:46 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under session high · RSI 68 · price 0.5624
Asia breakout above NY range, tight HL chain under 0.5625.
Asia lifted NZDUSD out of yesterday's NY range (0.5610–0.5618) to a session high at 0.5625 as US yields eased ahead of CPI. Price is now holding tight above a 0.5622 micro low, just under the 0.5630 range cap, with RSI(14) near 68 and momentum flattening.
Support: 0.5622, 0.5618, 0.5610
Resistance: 0.5625, 0.5630
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5625 session high puts the 0.5630 range cap in play
Loss of the 0.5622 micro low and the 0.5618 prior high returns price to the old NY range and the Asian rising trendline
Break of the 0.5610 range base unwinds the Asian leg in full
Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read
02:31 UTC
Uptrend, stalling below cap · RSI 72 · price 0.56233
Asia breakout above NY range top, HH/HL chain, tight 0.5622-0.5625 hold.
Asia session cleared the prior NY range top at 0.5618 around 00:30 UTC (breakout) and printed a session high at 0.5625 as US yields eased ahead of CPI. Price is now compressing just under the 0.5626-0.5630 range cap, with the HH/HL chain intact from the 0.5610 asia low and RSI(14) near 72; the rollover dip toward 0.5600 was a thin-liquidity spread print.
Support: 0.5618, 0.5610
Resistance: 0.56254, 0.5630
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5618 breakout level returns price into the prior NY range
Close above the 0.5630 range cap breaks the weekly range ceiling cited in the digest
Failure to hold above the 0.5610 asia low would break the intraday HL chain
Bowman at 09:40 UTC and US CPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:16 UTC
Uptrend, pausing under resistance · RSI 69 · price 0.56225
Asian range break above prior NY high, higher lows intact.
Asia session broke above the prior high at 0.5618 from yesterday's NY session, extending to a session high at 0.5625 as the USD eased into today's CPI. Price is now stalling at the base of the 0.5622–0.5630 cap band flagged this week, with the asian low at 0.5610 anchoring the higher-low chain. RSI(14) is warm near 69, not stretched.
Support: 0.5618, 0.5610
Resistance: 0.56254, 0.5630
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5630 cap breaks the band that has capped rallies this week
Slip back below the prior high at 0.5618 turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the asian low at 0.5610 breaks the higher-low chain on the rally trendline
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read
02:03 UTC
Uptrend, RSI elevated near cap band · RSI 76 · price 0.5624
Asia breakout above prior-day high, higher lows since 23:00 UTC.
Asia cleared yesterday's 0.5618 prior high and printed a 0.5625 session high as the USD eased into today's CPI. Price is now inside the 0.5622–0.5630 cap band with RSI(14) near 76, and an Asia trendline from the 0.5610 range low is still holding.
Support: 0.5618, 0.5610, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.5625, 0.5630
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5618 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
Clean close above the 0.5630 cap band clears this week's repeated rejection zone
Loss of the 0.5610 range low and the Asia trendline exposes the 0.5600 round number
Bowman 09:40 UTC and US CPI 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read
Asia break above Tuesday's range top, HH/HL chain from 0.5610.
Asia session cleared Tuesday's 0.5618 prior high after a higher-low chain off the 0.5610 asia low, extending the pre-CPI bounce as the USD eased off its highs. Price is stalling at a 0.5623 session high at the base of the 0.5622–0.5630 cap, with RSI(14) near 67 and not yet stretched.
Support: 0.56181, 0.56099, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56232, 0.5630
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.5618 prior high would mark the break as a false break and return price to Tuesday's range
Clearance of the 0.5630 cap would mark a break of this week's repeated rejection zone
Loss of the 0.5610 asia low breaks the higher-low chain; the round number at 0.5600 (rollover spike low) sits below
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read
01:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extending in Asia · RSI 71 · price 0.56224
Asia breakout above prior NY range top, HH/HL chain since 0.5610.
Asia session cleared yesterday's NY range top at the 0.5618 prior high and printed a 0.5623 session high, extending Tuesday's recovery from 0.5585 as USD eased off its highs. Price is now pressing the 0.5622–0.5630 cap band that has rejected rallies this week. RSI(14) is near 71: hot, but not extreme.
Support: 0.5618, 0.5610, 0.5608
Resistance: 0.5623, 0.5630
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 0.5630 cap band top would mark a fresh lower high inside the week's range
Slip back below the 0.5618 prior high turns the Asia breakout into a false break
Loss of the 0.5610 asian low, then the 0.5608 ny low, breaks the intraday HH/HL chain
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) and Bowman at 09:40 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia breakout above prior-day range, higher lows since rollover.
The Asia session cleared yesterday's 0.5610–0.5618 NY range, with the prior high at 0.56181 broken on the 00:30 UTC breakout bar. The Asia high at 0.56228 now sits just under the 0.5622–0.5630 cap band that has rejected price repeatedly this week, with RSI(14) near 72. The move extends Tuesday's corrective USD pullback ahead of US CPI.
Support: 0.56181, 0.5614, 0.5610
Resistance: 0.56228, 0.5630
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the prior high at 0.56181 would mark the breakout as a false break
Loss of the 0.5614 breakout bar low breaks the post-rollover higher-low chain and the Asia trendline
Rejection at the Asia high or the 0.5630 cap band would fit the week's pattern of capped rallies
Close below the 0.5610 range base returns price to the prior-day range lows
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) and Bowman at 09:40 UTC could materially shift this read
01:04 UTC
Uptrend, pressing into resistance · RSI 66 · price 0.56209
Asia breakout above the prior NY range, now testing the 0.5622 session high.
Early Asia session broke the flat 0.5610–0.5618 NY range, clearing the ny high and the 0.5620 handle to a new session high at 0.5622. That is the base of this week's 0.5622–0.5630 cap after the USD pullback on Williams' comments. RSI(14) at 66 is firm but not stretched, and ATR(14) of 26 pips is inflated by rollover spread wicks toward 0.5600. Rally fib 38.2% sits near 0.5608, close to yesterday's NY low.
Support: 0.5618, 0.5610
Resistance: 0.56219, 0.5630
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 0.5618 ny high turns the breakout into a false break
Hold above 0.5610 range base keeps the higher-low sequence from Asia intact
Rejection at the 0.5622 session high would leave the cap top at 0.5630 untested; a close above 0.5630 clears the weekly cap
Bowman at 09:40 UTC, then US CPI at 12:30 UTC with core vs headline split, could materially shift this read
00:46 UTC
Uptrend, pressing 24h high · RSI 64 · price 0.56205
Early Asia break above the prior-session range, higher lows.
Early Asia session lifted through the 0.5618 prior high to 0.5620, clearing the range held since London as the USD stays off Monday's highs. Price now sits just under the 0.5622 cap, with the 0.5630 cap top above it. Asian higher lows remain intact, the range floor at 0.5610 is well below, and RSI(14) near 64 is not stretched.
Support: 0.5618, 0.5610
Resistance: 0.5622, 0.5630
What it said to watch
A close above 0.5630, the cap top, takes price out of the 0.5622–0.5630 band that rejected moves this week
A slip back below the 0.5618 prior high returns price to the old range and marks the break as a false break
A loss of the 0.5610 range floor breaks the Asian higher-lows line
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read
00:31 UTC
Range after rally, pressing range top · RSI 62 · price 0.56162
0.5608–0.5618 range holding since NY; Asian range high under test.
Tuesday's rally from 0.5581 stalled into a 0.5608–0.5618 range through NY as the USD eased off its highs. Early Asia is pressing the range top near the 0.5618 NY high after a thin-liquidity rollover low at 0.5600 was quickly reclaimed. RSI(14) near 62, no extreme.
Support: 0.5610, 0.56077, 0.56002
Resistance: 0.56181, 0.5622
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5618 NY high opens the 0.5622–0.5630 cap zone flagged this week
Loss of the 0.5610 Asian low puts the 0.5608 NY low back in play, then the 0.5600 rollover low
US CPI at 12:30 UTC today (core f/c 0.2% MoM) is the main risk to this range read
Holding above the 0.5600 area keeps the Tuesday rally fib's shallow-retracement structure intact
00:16 UTC
Flat after London advance, pressing range top · RSI 56 · price 0.56153
0.5610–0.5618 range since mid-London, early Asia testing range high.
The London rally from 0.5590 stalled into a 0.5610–0.5618 range through NY as the USD eased into CPI. The thin rollover spike to the 0.5600 round number was quickly reclaimed, and the early Asia session is now pressing the range high at 0.5618, with RSI(14) neutral near 56.
Support: 0.5610, 0.56077, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56181, 0.5622
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.5618 range high puts the 0.5622 weekly cap, which has rejected rebounds all week, in play
Failure to hold the 0.5610 range floor exposes the 0.5608 ny low, then the 0.5600 round number
A drop back under the 23.6% retracement of the London rally near 0.5611 weakens the advance
US CPI at 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read; Asia ranges tend to stay compressed ahead of it
00:02 UTC
Uptrend stalled, ranging below day high · RSI 51 · price 0.56128
0.5580–0.5618 up-leg, then tight 0.5610–0.5615 range since London.
NZDUSD climbed from 0.5580 to 0.5615 through Asia and London as the USD eased off Monday's highs. It then compressed into a 0.5610–0.5615 range through NY, with the day high at 0.5618. Early Asia is holding mid-range after a thin rollover dip that held the 38.2% retracement of the asia-london leg near 0.5603, just above the 0.5600 asian high, with RSI(14) neutral at 51.
Support: 0.5610, 0.56078, 0.5600
Resistance: 0.56155, 0.56181, 0.5622
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.5618 day high brings the 0.5622 weekly cap into play
Failure to hold the 0.5610 range floor exposes the 0.5608 NY low and the 0.5600 asian high
Range top at 0.5615 capped repeated tests during NY; a break or rejection there sets the next leg
US CPI Wed 12:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) is the likely catalyst for a range break