21:07 UTC
Downtrend, stalled into consolidation · RSI 37 · price 0.56124
LH/LL chain from the Aug 20 high; two-week range 0.5580–0.5640.
The downtrend from the 0.5988 August 20 high has printed lower highs and lower lows through September, from 0.5902 to 0.5835, 0.5750 and the 0.5687 lower high, before stalling at the 0.5580 range floor in early October. The last two weeks have compressed between that floor and a 0.5640 range cap, with price below a falling EMA20 near 0.5652 and the EMA50, and RSI near 37, soft but not oversold. The hot 3.7% US CPI print and fading RBNZ October-hike odds keep the USD side heavy, yet daily lows have so far held the range floor.
Support: 0.5580, 0.5500
Resistance: 0.5640, 0.5687, 0.5750
What it said to watch
- A daily close below the 0.5580 range floor resumes the lower-low sequence and leaves the 0.5500 psych level as the next reference
- A daily close above the 0.5640 range cap and the ema20 would challenge the read; clearing the 0.5687 lower high would be the first break in the LH chain since August
- Above that, the 0.5750 sep high sits just above the 38.2% aug-oct fib retracement at ~0.5736
- RBNZ Breman speech, Oct 15 17:15 UTC, could reprice October-hike odds and test either range boundary
- US PPI and retail sales, Thu 12:30 GMT, could extend or unwind the post-CPI USD move