The week opened soft, with the pair sliding from 0.5615 below 0.5580 into Tuesday's Asia session. Hot US CPI on Wednesday drove a false break to the 0.5565 week low, and a yield-led recovery then carried price to a two-week top at 0.5634 in Thursday's Asia session. Thursday's hot PPI and retail sales dip found demand at 0.5591, the Thursday low near the 61.8% retracement of that leg, and price is back above EMA(20) near 0.5614 with RSI(14) around 57, capped below the 0.5630 Wednesday high.
Support: 0.5614, 0.55908, 0.55652
Resistance: 0.56295, 0.56344
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5634 two-week top breaks the cap flagged all week
Failure to hold EMA(20) at 0.5614 returns price to the middle of the consolidation
Break below the 0.5591 Thursday low and the rising higher-low line exposes the 0.5565 week low
Fed Chair Warsh speech Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
Higher low at 0.5591 inside a 0.5591–0.5634 range.
Monday and Tuesday built a 0.5580–0.5617 base. In the NY session Wednesday, hot US CPI flushed price to the 0.5565 week low, a false break that was reclaimed within hours. Thursday's Asia spike to the 0.5634 week high on hawkish RBNZ commentary faded, but the post-PPI dip in the NY session held 0.5591. That level is a higher low near the 61.8% retrace of the week's low-to-high, and price has since moved back above EMA(20) at 0.5612 with RSI(14) near 57, pressing the 0.5622 PPI high.
Support: 0.5612, 0.5591, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5622, 0.5634
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC (~5.5h); a US yield rebound could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 0.5622 PPI high puts the 0.5634 week high back in play
Failure to hold the 0.5591 PPI low breaks the higher-low line and reopens the 0.5565 week low
Losing EMA(20) near 0.5612 returns price to the middle of the 0.5591–0.5634 range
21:05 UTC
Recovering within range, higher lows since Wednesday · RSI 57 · price 0.56201
Higher lows off 0.5565 week low, capped by 0.5630–0.5634 highs.
After opening the week at 0.5603 and ranging Monday and Tuesday, the pair broke the 0.5580 range floor on Wednesday's hot US CPI during NY hours and hit 0.5565. That proved a false break: the low was fully reclaimed, and Thursday's Asia-session rally on hawkish RBNZ talk and falling US yields printed the week high at 0.5634, just above Wednesday's 0.5630 high. Hot US PPI pulled price back to the 0.5591 ppi low near the 61.8% fib, where demand stepped in; price is now back above EMA(20) at 0.5612 with RSI(14) near 57, pressing the 0.5622 NY high.
Support: 0.5612, 0.5603, 0.5591
Resistance: 0.5622, 0.5630, 0.5634
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5622 NY high puts the 0.5630 wed high and 0.5634 week high back in focus
Repeated failures at 0.5630–0.5634 keep the range read intact
Loss of EMA(20) at 0.5612 and the 0.5603 weekly open exposes the 0.5591 ppi low and the higher-lows trendline
Break below the 0.5591 ppi low (61.8% fib) would undercut the Wednesday-Thursday recovery structure
Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC and NZ Business PMI is due at 21:30 UTC; either could materially shift this read
False break below 0.5580, then higher lows under lower highs.
Wednesday's hot US CPI drove a NY-session break below Monday's 0.5580 low to the 0.5565 week low. The move reversed as a false break: falling US yields and hawkish RBNZ comments carried NZD past the 0.5630 prior high to the 0.5634 week high in Thursday's Asia session. Since then the pair has compressed under that high, with the PPI dip holding at the 0.5591 ppi low near the 61.8% level of the rebound fib, while price is back above EMA(20) at 0.5610 and the 0.5603 weekly open with RSI(14) mid-range near 56.
Support: 0.56096, 0.56033, 0.55908
Resistance: 0.56215, 0.56295, 0.56344
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5622 ppi high breaks the lower-highs line and opens a retest of the 0.5630 prior high and 0.5634 week high
Failure to hold the 0.5591 ppi low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 0.5565 week low
H1 closes back below ema20 and the 0.5603 weekly open would return price to the lower half of the rebound
Fed's Hammack (20:30 UTC) and Chair Warsh (Fri 03:30 UTC) could materially shift this read via US yields
19:03 UTC
Two-way chop after a V-shaped recovery, momentum flat · RSI 51 · price 0.56136
Range 0.5591–0.5634: lower high at ppi high, higher low at 61.8% fib.
From the 0.5603 weekly open, Wednesday's hot US CPI broke the 0.5580 floor in the NY session and printed the 0.5565 week low. That break reversed into Thursday's Asia session on falling US yields and hawkish RBNZ talk, reaching the 0.5634 week high, before the PPI beat pulled price back to the 0.5591 ppi low, the 61.8% fib of the rally, where buyers stepped in. A lower high has since formed at the 0.5622 ppi high, and price is holding just above the ema20 near 0.5609 with RSI(14) flat around 51, so the 0.5591–0.5634 range stays intact.
Support: 0.5609, 0.5591, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5622, 0.5634
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5591 ppi low breaks the higher-low sequence and re-exposes the 0.5565 week low
H1 close above the 0.5622 ppi high and the lower-highs line reopens a test of the 0.5634 week high
Loss of the ema20 at 0.5609 returns price to the lower half of the range
Fed's Hammack (20:30 UTC) and Warsh (Fri 03:30 UTC) could materially shift this read via US yields
Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC is near-term NZD event risk
Higher low at 0.5591 under lower highs from 0.5634; compressing above weekly open.
Hot US CPI drove a false break of Monday's 0.5580 floor at Wednesday's NY open, down to the 0.5565 week low. It reversed into a Thursday Asia-session spike to the 0.5634 week high as US yields slid and RBNZ's Conway kept hikes on the table. Since then highs have stepped lower while the post-PPI dip held 0.5591, near the 61.8% retracement, leaving price compressing just above EMA(20) (~0.5609) and the 0.5603 weekly open with RSI(14) near 55.
Support: 0.56033, 0.55908, 0.55652
Resistance: 0.56215, 0.56295, 0.56344
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5622 NY high breaks the lower-high trendline and brings the 0.5630 Wed high and 0.5634 week high back into play
Failure to hold the 0.5603 weekly open and the 0.5591 PPI low breaks the higher-low trendline and reopens the 0.5565 week low
Fed's Hammack (20:30 UTC) and Warsh (Fri 03:30 UTC) could materially shift this yield-driven read
Business NZ PMI at 21:30 UTC is the next NZD-side risk for this compression
17:04 UTC
Range after V-shaped rebound, momentum flat · RSI 50 · price 0.56074
Wednesday's hot US CPI broke Monday's 0.5580 floor in the first hour of NY and set the week low at 0.5565. The break reversed through Asia hours on Conway's hawkish RBNZ remarks, running to a 0.5634 week high. Today's PPI beat tagged 0.5591, the ppi low at the 61.8% retracement of that rebound, before buyers stepped in. Price is now coiling between lower highs and higher lows around EMA(20) near 0.5608 and the 0.5603 weekly open, with RSI(14) flat near 50 and ATR easing off the CPI spike.
Support: 0.56033, 0.55908, 0.55652
Resistance: 0.56128, 0.56215, 0.56344
What it said to watch
RBNZ Breman at 17:15 UTC, then Hammack (20:30 UTC) and Warsh (03:30 UTC Fri), could break the coil in either direction
H1 close above the 0.5622 ppi high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.5634 week high back in play
Repeated failure at the 0.5613 prior close keeps price capped under the prior-week settle
H1 close below the 0.5591 ppi low loses the 61.8% retracement and exposes the 0.5565 week low
Holding the 0.5603 weekly open keeps the higher-low structure intact
16:04 UTC
Two-way, coiling after V-recovery · RSI 48 · price 0.56044
Lower highs from 0.5634 against higher lows from 0.5565, contracting range.
NZDUSD is back on the 0.5603 weekly open. Wednesday's hot US CPI flushed the pair to the 0.5565 week low during NY hours, a false break below 0.5580 that reversed as Treasury yields slid. Conway's 'completely open' October remark then lifted it to the 0.5634 week high in Thursday's Asia session. Since then the pair has printed lower highs at 0.5634 and the 0.5622 NY high, while the higher-low sequence held at the 0.5591 PPI low near the 61.8% retracement of the Wednesday-Thursday rally. That leaves price coiling just under a flat ema20 (0.5607) and EMA(50) (0.5606), with RSI(14) neutral at 48.
Support: 0.56033, 0.55908, 0.55652
Resistance: 0.56073, 0.56215, 0.56344
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5591 ppi low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 0.5565 week low
Acceptance above the 0.5622 ny high breaks the lower-high trendline and puts the 0.5634 week high back in play
Failure to hold the weekly open at 0.5603 keeps price capped under the ema20 at 0.5607 and turns the 50% retracement near 0.5600 into the next test
RBNZ's Breman at 17:15 UTC and Fed Chair Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read
0.5565–0.5634 weekly range; higher low at 0.5591 after CPI false break.
After grinding lower from Monday's 0.5603 weekly open, the pair broke to a 0.5565 week low on Wednesday's hot US CPI, but the move reversed as Treasury yields fell, and Conway's 'completely open' October remark drove a Thursday Asia-session spike to the 0.5634 week high that faded through London. The hot PPI and retail sales beats in the first hour of NY only pressed price to 0.5591, the ppi low, almost exactly the 61.8% retracement of the CPI-low rally, and that dip held as a higher low. Price is now back above EMA(20) near 0.5610 and the weekly open, capped so far by the 0.5622 ny high, with RSI(14) neutral around 52.
Support: 0.5603, 0.5591, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5622, 0.5634
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5634 week high breaks the range top and the rejection read
Loss of the 0.5591 ppi low breaks the higher lows sequence and exposes the 0.5565 week low
Holding the 0.5603 weekly open keeps price in the upper half of the range
RBNZ's Breman at 17:15 UTC: confirming or walking back Conway's October hike optionality could materially shift this read
Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC, then Chair Warsh Fri 03:30 UTC, are high-impact USD risk for the next sessions
Wide range 0.5565-0.5634, lower highs since Thursday's Asia peak.
From Monday's week open at 0.5603 the pair ranged 0.5580-0.5619 until the hot US CPI print drove a NY-session false break to the 0.5565 week low. Softer yields and Conway's 'completely open' October remark then reversed the whole leg in Thursday's Asia session to the 0.5634 week high. Lower highs have followed under a 0.5618 range cap, and today's hot PPI/retail sales spike was rejected at the 0.5591 data low, almost exactly the 61.8% retracement of the rebound. Price now sits on EMA(20) near 0.5606 with RSI(14) flat around 52.
Support: 0.5603, 0.5591, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5618, 0.5634
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 0.5591 data low breaks the higher-low sequence and puts the 0.5565 week low back in play
Hourly close above the 0.5618 range cap breaks the lower-high sequence and re-exposes the 0.5634 week high
Failure to hold the 0.5603 week open and EMA(20) leaves the rebound looking like a retracement inside the range
RBNZ's Breman at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read, depending on whether he echoes or walks back Conway
Fed Chair Warsh Fri 03:30 GMT is the next USD risk after today's hot PPI and retail sales
13:04 UTC
Two-way; V-rebound off week low now fading · RSI 47 · price 0.56029
Lower highs since Thursday's 0.5634 peak, retracing the post-CPI rebound.
Wednesday's hot US CPI drove a NY-session drop to a week low at 0.5565. Softer Treasury yields and Conway's 'completely open' October remark then fuelled a V-shaped rebound to the 0.5634 week high in Thursday's Asia session. Since then the pair has printed lower highs back to the weekly open near 0.5603, below EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 47. The hot PPI and retail sales spike to the 0.5591 ppi low tagged the 61.8% retracement of the rebound and was rejected, leaving the 0.5600 round number as the pivot.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5591, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5607, 0.5618, 0.5634
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 0.5591 ppi low and 61.8% retracement exposes the 0.5565 week low
Reclaiming EMA(20) near 0.5607 and the 0.5618 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence; the 0.5634 week high remains the cap
Repeated closes under the 0.5600 round number would mark the rebound as fully faded
RBNZ Breman at 17:15 UTC and Fed's Hammack at 20:30 UTC could shift this read; Warsh on Fri 03:30 UTC is the larger risk
Post-CPI V-recovery fading into lower highs, testing day low.
The week opened near 0.5603 and rotated in a 0.5580–0.5630 band through Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday's hot US CPI broke the tue low and printed a cpi low at 0.5565, but that false break reversed on the yield slump and Conway's 'completely open' October remark, carrying the pair to a 0.5634 2-week high in Thursday's Asia session. London has since printed a lower high near 0.5618 and price has slipped back below EMA(20) to the 0.5602 day low, between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the CPI rebound, with RSI(14) cooled to around 51.
Support: 0.5602, 0.5580, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5618, 0.5634
What it said to watch
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 0.5602 day low and the 50% retracement (~0.5600) exposes the tue low at 0.5580
Hold above 0.5580 keeps the CPI drop framed as a false break; a return to the 0.5565 cpi low reopens the downtrend
Close above the 0.5618 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and puts the 0.5634 2-week high back in play
RBNZ Breman at 17:15 UTC: tone versus Conway on an October hike
11:03 UTC
Rebound from CPI low, pausing below week high · RSI 55 · price 0.56088
V-recovery from week low; lower highs since Asia peak, holding the 38.2% fib.
The week's dominant move came in Wednesday's NY session, when the hot US CPI print flushed NZDUSD through the 0.5580 area to a week low at 0.5565 before falling Treasury yields reversed it. Conway's 'completely open' October remark then carried the Asia session to a week high at 0.5634, above Wednesday's 0.5630 wed high. Since then price has printed lower highs into London, capped at the 0.5618 london high, and now sits on EMA(20) and the 38.2% fib of the post-CPI rebound near 0.5608, with the session low at 0.5605 and the 50% fib at 0.5600 below and RSI(14) cooled to the mid-50s.
Support: 0.56052, 0.55998, 0.55652
Resistance: 0.56184, 0.56295, 0.56344
What it said to watch
US Retail Sales and PPI at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot print puts the 0.5565 week low back in focus
H1 close below the 0.5600 50% fib undoes most of the post-CPI rebound
H1 close above the 0.5618 london high breaks the lower-highs sequence and exposes the 0.5630 wed high and 0.5634 week high
Breman at 17:15 UTC: a tone that differs from Conway's on an October hike could reshape the read
0.5580–0.5634 range after a CPI false break; lower highs since Thursday's Asia peak.
Wednesday's hot US CPI print drove a NY session flush below the 0.5580 range floor to the 0.5565 week low. The break failed as Treasury yields slid, and RBNZ's Conway calling October 'completely open' lifted the pair to the 0.5634 week high in Thursday's Asia session. Price has since eased through London into the 0.5605 ema cluster, where EMA(20) and EMA(50) converge near the 38.2% fib of the rebound; RSI(14) has cooled to ~54 and lower highs are forming beneath the 0.5618 session high.
Support: 0.56053, 0.56002, 0.55652
Resistance: 0.56184, 0.56295, 0.56344
What it said to watch
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read, with RBNZ's Breman at 17:15 UTC adding a second risk event
An H1 close below the 0.5605 ema cluster exposes the 0.5600 round number and the 50% fib of the rebound
A close above the 0.5618 session high breaks the Thursday lower highs; acceptance above the 0.5630 wed high and 0.5634 week high would break the range top
A return below 0.5580 toward the 0.5565 week low would negate the CPI false break
V-shaped recovery from 0.5565 week low to 0.5634; pullback now at the 38.2% retrace and the recovery trendline.
The hot US CPI print drove Wednesday's NY-session drop through the tue low at 0.5580 to a week low of 0.5565. That break failed as Treasury yields slid, and Conway's 'completely open' October remark carried the pair to a week high of 0.5634 in Thursday's Asia session. Since then price has eased back to the 38.2% retracement near 0.5608, with EMA(20) flat around 0.5608 and RSI(14) back near 53. The thu low at 0.5605 and the weekly open at 0.5603 sit just below, and the London high at 0.5618 is capping the bounce so far.
Support: 0.5605, 0.5580, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5618, 0.5634
What it said to watch
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read; a hot combo puts the tue low at 0.5580 back in play
H1 close below the thu low at 0.5605 and the weekly open breaks the recovery line and exposes the 50% fib near 0.5600
Reclaim of the london high at 0.5618 reopens a test of the 0.5634 week high and range top
RBNZ Breman at 17:15 UTC: a pushback on an October hike would undercut Thursday's rebound
Loss of the week low at 0.5565 would turn Wednesday's false break into a lower-low continuation
08:03 UTC
Range, rebounding from week low but fading off the high · RSI 48 · price 0.56095
0.5580–0.5634 weekly range with a failed downside break; pullback testing weekly open.
The hot US CPI print drove Wednesday's NY-session break below the 0.5580 tue low to a 0.5565 week low. That break failed as US yields slid. Asia then carried the reversal to a 0.5634 week high on RBNZ's Conway calling October 'completely open'. Price has faded through early London and now sits just above the weekly open at 0.5603, which lines up with the 38.2% fib of the rebound and the rising support from Wednesday's low, with EMA(20) at ~0.5607 and RSI(14) back near 48.
Support: 0.56033, 0.55796, 0.55652
Resistance: 0.56169, 0.56344
What it said to watch
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC (~4.5h) could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 0.5603 weekly open breaks rising support and exposes the 50% fib near 0.5600 and the 0.5580 tue low
Reclaim of the 0.5617 tue high reopens a test of the 0.5634 week high; a close above it breaks the range top
Loss of 0.5580 brings the 0.5565 week low back into focus
RBNZ's Breman at 17:15 UTC, on whether he repeats the October 'completely open' framing
Higher lows off the week low; rebound capped at the 0.5630-35 week high.
Wednesday's hot US CPI print broke the 0.5580 floor of the week's range in the NY session and set the week low at 0.5565. The move reversed within hours as US yields fell, and Thursday's Asia session pushed through Wednesday's 0.5630 prior high to a 0.5634 week high on Conway's hawkish RBNZ comments. That high was rejected, and the pullback into the London open slipped just below the 38.2% retracement to a 0.5605 pullback low. It is holding above the 50% fib and the recovery line, with price back over EMA(20) near 0.5607 and RSI(14) easing to the mid-50s.
Support: 0.56053, 0.55998, 0.55652
Resistance: 0.56295, 0.56344
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5605 pullback low and the 0.5600 50% fib breaks the recovery line and reopens the 0.5565 week low
H1 close above the 0.5634 week high clears the prior high cap at 0.5630 that has stopped recoveries
US Retail Sales/PPI cluster at 12:30 UTC (~5.5h) could materially shift this read via US yields
RBNZ Breman speech at 17:15 UTC on October hike vs hold is the second event risk today
V-shaped recovery from CPI low rejected at week high, now retracing inside 0.5565-0.5634.
Wednesday's hot US CPI print drove a NY-session false break below the tuesday low at 0.5580 to a 0.5565 cpi low. Thursday's Asia session fully reversed that move as US yields retreated and Conway kept an October RBNZ hike live, spiking price to a 0.5634 week high before rejection. Price has since given back about a third of the cpi rebound and sits under the monday high at 0.5619 but above EMA(20) and the weekly open near 0.5603, with RSI(14) cooling from the mid-60s to ~53.
Support: 0.56033, 0.55796, 0.55652
Resistance: 0.56192, 0.56344
What it said to watch
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
RBNZ Breman speech at 17:15 UTC on October hike vs hold
H1 close below the weekly open and 0.5600 (50% of the cpi rebound) points back toward the tuesday low
Close above the week high at 0.5634 breaks the level that has capped recoveries
Failure to reclaim the monday high keeps price retracing inside the week range
05:04 UTC
Rebounding within a weekly range, momentum cooling · RSI 58 · price 0.56174
False break below 0.5580 on CPI, higher lows from 0.5565, rejection at 0.5634.
Monday and Tuesday held a 0.5580–0.5630 range. Wednesday's hot US CPI print at 12:30 UTC broke the 0.5580 Tuesday low and ran to a 0.5565 week low during NY hours, but the move fully reversed as US yields retreated. That left a false break and a sequence of higher lows into Thursday's Asia session. The rebound tagged a 0.5634 week high just above the 0.5630 Wed high before supply capped it. Price is now drifting back toward the ema20 near 0.5607, which sits on the 38.2% retracement of the CPI rebound. RSI(14) has eased to about 58 from the high 60s.
Support: 0.5607, 0.5580, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5630, 0.5634
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5634 week high clears the 0.5630 cap that has stalled recoveries all week
Failure to hold the ema20 and 38.2% CPI rebound zone near 0.5607 breaks the rebound higher lows and reopens the 0.5580 Tuesday low
Loss of 0.5580 would put the 0.5565 week low back in play and negate the false break read
US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
RBNZ Breman speech at 17:15 UTC on an October hold versus a hike adds second-half event risk
04:03 UTC
V-shaped recovery, pressing the week high · RSI 64 · price 0.56265
Post-CPI false break below range floor fully reversed; higher lows since Wednesday's week low.
Wednesday's hot US CPI (3.7% y/y) knocked the pair from 0.5614 to a week low at 0.5565 during NY hours, a false break below the Monday–Tuesday 0.5580 floor that reversed within hours. The rebound extended in today's Asia session on Conway's 'completely open' RBNZ remarks, briefly clearing the Wed high at 0.5630 to a new week high at 0.5634 before supply capped it. Price now sits back above EMA(20) near 0.5606 and above the weekly open at 0.5603, with RSI(14) near 64 and a run of higher lows off the CPI trough.
Support: 0.56083, 0.56033, 0.55652
Resistance: 0.56295, 0.56344
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5634 week high breaks the 0.5580–0.5630 range cap that has held all week
Loss of the 38.2% fib of the rebound at 0.5608 and the weekly open at 0.5603 returns price to mid-range
A break of the rising trendline from the week low would mark the first lower low since the CPI trough
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
RBNZ Breman speech at 17:15 UTC is the key NZD-side risk to the rebound
03:03 UTC
Range, sharp V-rebound to week high · RSI 66 · price 0.56296
CPI break below range floor reversed; now testing range top.
Wednesday's hot US CPI print knocked the pair through the 0.5580 range floor to a week low at 0.5565 in the first hours of NY, but the break failed. A CPI rebound built a series of higher lows into the Asia session and finished with a 02:00 UTC surge to a week high at 0.5634. Price now sits above EMA(20) near 0.5604 and the weekly open at 0.5603, with RSI(14) at 66, and is pressing the prior high at 0.5630 that capped Wednesday's Asia session.
Support: 0.56295, 0.56033, 0.5580
Resistance: 0.56344, 0.5640
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the 0.5630 prior high turns the breakout into a rejection at the range top
Clearance of the 0.5634 week high puts the 0.5640 round number in play
A drop back under the weekly open and EMA(20) near 0.5603 breaks the higher lows sequence
Loss of the 0.5580 range floor again would revive the CPI breakdown read
US PPI and retail sales at 12:30 UTC and RBNZ Breman at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Since Monday's open the pair held a 0.5580–0.5630 range. The hot US CPI print in Wednesday's NY session then drove a 64-pip CPI drop from the week high to the CPI low at 0.5565, breaking the tuesday low, but the break did not hold. Price has since climbed along a recovery trendline into the Asian session, retraced about 70% of the drop and reclaimed the ema cluster at 0.5600–0.5602 (EMA20 and EMA50 converged), with RSI(14) back near 58, while the asia high at 0.5617 (78.6% fib) has capped two attempts.
Support: 0.5600, 0.5580, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5617, 0.5630
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.5617 asia high opens a retest of the 0.5630 week high
Loss of the 0.5600 ema cluster and the recovery trendline exposes the 0.5580 tuesday low, then the 0.5565 cpi low
US PPI and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
RBNZ Breman remarks at 17:15 UTC are a second NZD-side risk to the range read