NZD/USD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Friday, 16 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the NZD/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
20:04 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from week high · RSI 52 · price 0.56525
Higher highs and higher lows since Wednesday's 0.5565 low; Friday dip held above Thursday's high.
NZDUSD has rebuilt from Wednesday's CPI-driven low at 0.5565 with a run of higher lows, as falling US yields left the dollar unable to hold Thursday's hot PPI and retail sales beats. Friday's Asia and London sessions broke Thursday's 0.5634 high (thu high) and printed a week high at 0.5675. NY hours then faded the move to a 0.5641 swing low, a retracement of roughly 23.6–38.2% on the week rally fib, and price now sits back near 0.5650 and the H1 EMA(20) with RSI(14) cooled to ~52.
Support: 0.5649, 0.5641, 0.5634
Resistance: 0.5669, 0.5675
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.5641 swing low exposes the thu high at 0.5634 and the 38.2% level of the week rally fib
An H1 close back above the 0.5669 lower high, then the 0.5675 week high, would extend the higher-high sequence
A sustained break below the higher lows trendline from Thursday's 0.5591 dip would end the recovery structure
Weekend IMF headlines plus Sunday's Business NZ PSI and trade data could gap the Monday open
NZ Q3 CPI (Wed 21:45 UTC, f/c 0.8% QoQ) is the main event risk for this read
Higher lows from 0.5565; Friday breakout above 0.5634 now retracing.
Wednesday's hot US CPI print knocked the pair to the 0.5565 week low. The reversal since has printed higher lows at 0.5591 and 0.5601 as US yields slid. Friday's Asia and London sessions cleared Thursday's high at 0.5634 and ran to a week high of 0.5675, before NY hours pulled price back to the 0.5641 NY low and onto EMA(20) near 0.5648, with RSI(14) easing into the high 50s.
Support: 0.5641, 0.5634, 0.5620
Resistance: 0.5669, 0.5675, 0.5700
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 0.5634 thu high fails the breakout and opens the 50% fib of the Wednesday-Friday rally near 0.5620
A break of the higher lows trendline, currently near 0.5637, would end the sequence of higher lows since Wednesday
A reclaim of the 0.5669 lower high and the 0.5675 week high resumes the rally and opens the path toward the 0.5700 round number
Sunday's NZ PSI and trade data (21:30–21:45 UTC) and weekend IMF headlines are gap risk for the weekly open
18:05 UTC
Uptrend from Wednesday low, pulling back · RSI 49 · price 0.56451
Higher lows since Wed; first lower high and lower low after Friday peak.
The reversal from Wednesday's post-US CPI low at 0.5565 extended through Friday's Asia session and London open. Lower US yields and fading Fed-hike bets carried NZDUSD to a week high at 0.5675, with RSI(14) pushing into overbought. NY hours have faded the move: a lower high at 0.5669 and a slide to today's low at 0.5641 have taken price back below EMA(20) and the 0.5650 pivot, with RSI(14) cooled to ~49. The ema50/50% confluence of the Thursday–Friday impulse at 0.5633, also Thursday's high, sits just below.
Support: 0.5641, 0.5633, 0.5591
Resistance: 0.5648, 0.5669, 0.5675
What it said to watch
H1 close back above ema20 at 0.5648 and the 0.5650 pivot reopens the 0.5669 lower high and 0.5675 week high
Failure to hold today's low at 0.5641 exposes the 0.5633 ema50/50% confluence
A break of the higher-low trendline and the 0.5591 thu low would unwind the week's reversal structure
Business NZ PSI and NZ trade data Sunday night could gap the weekly open; NZ Q3 CPI on Wednesday is the larger swing risk
17:05 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from week high · RSI 47 · price 0.56442
Higher low then breakout; NY-session pullback toward the breakout zone.
Wednesday's flush on the hot US CPI to 0.5565 was followed by a higher low at 0.5591 into Thursday's NY session. Friday's Asia-to-London impulse then broke the 0.5634 prior high and reached a 0.5675 week high as US yields slid and Fed hike bets faded. NY hours have since printed a lower high at 0.5669 and pushed price back below EMA(20) near 0.5648, with RSI(14) easing into the high-40s. That leaves the 0.5634 prior high as the retest zone; it lines up with the 38.2% fib of the week's impulse and sits just above EMA(50).
Support: 0.5634, 0.5620, 0.5591
Resistance: 0.5648, 0.5669, 0.5675
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5634 prior high fails the breakout retest and exposes the 0.5620 50% fib
Loss of the 0.5591 higher low breaks this week's higher-low sequence
Reclaim of EMA(20) and a close above the 0.5669 lower high reopens the 0.5675 week high
Sunday's NZ PSI and trade data can reset the open; NZ Q3 CPI on Wed is the larger risk to this read
16:05 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from week high · RSI 57 · price 0.56513
Higher lows since Wed CPI low; lower high at 0.5669 under the 0.5675 peak.
NZDUSD has recovered about 110 pips from Wednesday's 0.5565 low, set in the NY session after the hot US CPI print. Higher lows followed at 0.5591 on Thursday, then a Friday Asia-to-London breakout cleared the 0.5634 Thu high as lower US yields and fading Fed hike bets weighed on the dollar. After the 0.5675 week high, NY hours produced a lower high at 0.5669, and price has slipped back to EMA(20) near 0.5649, close to the 23.6% retracement of the week's rally. RSI(14) has cooled to ~57 from overbought readings above 80, so momentum is easing rather than reversing.
Support: 0.5649, 0.5634, 0.5591
Resistance: 0.5669, 0.5675
What it said to watch
H1 close below the ema20 at 0.5649 exposes the 0.5634 Thu high, which lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the week's rally
H1 close above the 0.5669 lower high and the 0.5675 week high resumes the higher-high sequence
Break of the higher-low trendline and the 0.5591 Thu low would negate the week's recovery structure
Fed commentary at the weekend IMF meetings and Sunday's NZ PSI and trade data could shift the read at the open; NZ Q3 CPI on Wed 21 Oct is the larger event risk
15:04 UTC
Uptrend since Wednesday's low, momentum cooling near highs · RSI 69 · price 0.56647
Higher highs and higher lows off 0.5565; consolidating under week high.
Wednesday's hot US CPI print knocked NZDUSD to the 0.5565 week low during NY hours. The pair has since printed a higher low at 0.5591 on Thursday's US data and broke the 0.5634 prior high in Friday's Asia session as US yields eased, extending to a 0.5675 week high in London. The NY-hours dip held at the 0.5653 pullback low just above EMA(20) near 0.5650 and the rising higher-low trendline, with RSI(14) easing from the low 80s to about 69.
Support: 0.5653, 0.5634, 0.5591
Resistance: 0.5675, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5653 pullback low and the higher-low trendline breaks Friday's sequence and exposes the 0.5634 prior high (38.2% fib)
Failure to hold 0.5591, Thursday's higher low, would undo the uptrend structure from 0.5565
H1 close above the 0.5675 week high puts the 0.5700 round number in play
Weekend NZ PSI and trade data (Sun 21:30–21:45 UTC) plus any Fed or IMF remarks could gap the Monday open
Higher lows since Wednesday's CPI low; breakout above Thursday's high.
NZD/USD has printed higher lows since Wednesday's hot US CPI flush to 0.5565. It reclaimed Thursday's 0.5634 prior high as Friday's Asia-to-London leg ran to a 0.5675 week high on lower US yields and fading Fed hike bets. The dip around the NY open to the 0.5653 swing low held above EMA(20) near 0.5648 and recovered within the hour despite beats in US IP and import prices, while RSI(14) has cooled from about 80 to 68.
Support: 0.5653, 0.5648, 0.5634
Resistance: 0.5675, 0.5700
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 0.5653 swing low and EMA(20) would break the higher-low sequence and expose the 0.5634 prior high, which aligns with the 38.2% retracement of the CPI low–week high move.
A break of the rising higher-lows trendline from Thursday's 0.5591 low, now near 0.5659, would mark the first crack in Friday's advance.
Acceptance above the 0.5675 week high opens the path to the 0.5700 round number.
Fed-speak at the weekend IMF meetings and Sunday's NZ PSI and trade data could reshape the read at Monday's open.
13:04 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from week high · RSI 62 · price 0.56546
Higher lows since Wednesday's CPI low; Friday breakout above 0.5634.
The hot US CPI print dropped the pair to 0.5565 in Wednesday's NY session. Since then it has formed higher lows as US yields eased, and Friday's Asia and London sessions carried it through the 0.5634 Thursday high to a 0.5675 week high. Price is now easing back toward EMA(20) near 0.5646, with RSI(14) cooled to ~62 from near 79 at the high, and the 38.2% fib of the week's rally sits on the 0.5634 thu high breakout level.
Support: 0.5646, 0.5634, 0.5591
Resistance: 0.5675, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 0.5634 thu high (38.2% fib) would put Friday's breakout in question
Acceptance above the 0.5675 week high exposes the 0.5700 round number
Loss of the rising-low trendline (~0.5621) and the 0.5591 thu low would undo the post-CPI recovery structure
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC today could shift this read; NZ Q3 CPI next Wednesday is the larger event risk
12:03 UTC
Uptrend, overbought into the week high · RSI 73 · price 0.56649
Higher lows since Wednesday's 0.5565 low; Thursday high broken.
Wednesday's hot US CPI print sent the pair to the 0.5565 week low during NY hours. It then reversed and built higher lows at 0.5591 and 0.5614 as US yields fell and the USD unwound. Friday's leg cleared Thursday's 0.5634 prior high through Asia and extended at London open to a 0.5675 week high. RSI(14) has eased to about 73 from near 80 as price stalls just under that high, with EMA20 near 0.5646 lining up with Friday's pullback lows.
Support: 0.5646, 0.5634, 0.5620
Resistance: 0.5675, 0.5700
What it said to watch
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC today could shift this read into the NY session
A sustained H1 close above the 0.5675 week high opens the path to the 0.5700 round number
Failure to hold EMA20 near 0.5646 exposes the 0.5634 prior high; a close back below that level would turn the breakout into a false break
Loss of the fib 50% at 0.5620, where the rising-lows trendline also sits, breaks the higher-low sequence
NZ Q3 CPI on Wed 21 Oct is the next major NZD-side risk to this structure
V-reversal from the CPI low, higher lows, prior high broken.
Wednesday's NY-session drop on the hot US CPI print bottomed at 0.5565. The pair has since built higher lows, with Thursday's US-data dip holding at the 0.5591 higher low. Friday's Asia session drove the breakout through Thursday's 0.5633 prior high as US yields eased, and London extended it to a 0.5675 session high, a three-week top. RSI(14) is in overbought territory with price well clear of EMA(20); the 0.5647 pullback low near the EMA(20) is the first area where demand stepped in during the advance.
Support: 0.5647, 0.5633, 0.5591
Resistance: 0.5675, 0.5700
What it said to watch
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close back below the 0.5647 pullback low and EMA(20) points to a deeper retracement
Failure to hold the 0.5633 prior high (38.2% fib) puts the breakout read in question
Close above the 0.5675 session high opens the 0.5700 round number
Weekend NZ PSI and trade data may gap the Monday open
10:03 UTC
Uptrend, stretched into week high · RSI 79 · price 0.56696
V-reversal from Wednesday low; higher lows, prior high cleared.
After the hot US CPI drove a NY-session flush to 0.5565 on Wednesday, the pair has printed a higher swing low at 0.5591 and rallied about 110 pips as US yields slid and Warsh offered no rate-path hint. The Asia session advance on Friday, extended at London open, cleared Thursday's prior high at 0.5634 (near the 38.2% fib of the move) and set a week high at 0.5673. Price sits well above a rising ema20 near 0.5642, with RSI(14) near 79 in overbought territory.
Support: 0.5642, 0.5634, 0.5591
Resistance: 0.5673, 0.5700
What it said to watch
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC: a rebound in yields could pull price back toward ema20 at 0.5642
A failed hold of the 0.5634 prior high would turn Friday's breakout into a false break
An H1 close above the 0.5700 round number extends the week high sequence
A new push to the 0.5673 week high on lower RSI would set up bearish divergence
A break below the 0.5591 swing low and the rising trendline voids the higher-low structure
09:03 UTC
Uptrend, extended and overbought · RSI 76 · price 0.56696
V-reversal from Wednesday's CPI low, higher highs and higher lows.
The hot US CPI print broke NZDUSD to a 0.5565 cpi low during Wednesday's NY session. Falling US yields and hawkish RBNZ commentary then drove a reversal through Thursday's Asia session, and Thursday's PPI dip held a higher low at 0.5591. Friday's Asia session and the London open cleared the 0.5634 prior high to print a 0.5671 week high, with price well above EMA(20) and RSI(14) stretched near 76 after the steepest one-way run of the week.
Support: 0.5634, 0.5591, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5671, 0.5700
What it said to watch
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC today could materially shift this read in a thin Friday NY session
Hourly closes back below the 0.5634 prior high, near the 38.2% retrace, would turn the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold the 0.5591 ppi low breaks the higher-lows trendline and reopens the 0.5565 cpi low
Acceptance above the 0.5671 week high brings the 0.5700 round number into view
Weakening RSI on any new high above 0.5671 would mark bearish divergence at an overbought extreme
Higher lows since post-CPI low, Thursday high broken.
Wednesday's hot US CPI print sent the pair to a week low at 0.5565 during NY hours. Higher lows on Thursday and a Friday Asia session breakout through the 0.5634 Thursday high then lifted price to a fresh week high at 0.5666, extended at London open as softer US yields kept USD heavy. Price sits about 30 pips above EMA(20) near 0.5635 with RSI(14) around 73, overbought after a 100-pip recovery; the Asia low at 0.5646 is the first pullback reference, with the 38.2% fib of the week impulse near 0.5628.
Support: 0.5646, 0.5634, 0.5601
Resistance: 0.5666, 0.5700
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below 0.5634 (Thursday high, EMA(20) confluence) returns price to Thursday's range
A break of the higher-lows trendline near 0.5615 and the Thursday low at 0.5601 would unwind the recovery structure
A new high above the 0.5666 week high on a lower RSI peak would form a bearish rsi divergence; the 0.5700 round number is the next reference above
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC could shift the yield-driven USD read
07:03 UTC
Uptrend, extended into week high · RSI 74 · price 0.56537
V-recovery from Wednesday's low; higher lows, prior high broken.
Hot US CPI drove Wednesday's NY-session flush to the 0.55652 week low, but the move fully reversed as Treasury yields fell. Thursday's NY dip after the PPI beat held a higher low at 0.55908, and a further higher low at 0.56011 later in the session. Friday's Asia session cleared the 0.56344 prior high and printed a week high at 0.56575 as Warsh offered no hawkish push, with RSI(14) near 74 in overbought territory and price well clear of EMA(20).
Support: 0.56344, 0.56222, 0.56011
Resistance: 0.56575, 0.5660
What it said to watch
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC today could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 0.56344 prior high on an H1 close reopens the 38.2% fib near 0.5622
A break of the higher-lows trendline and the 0.56011 higher low would undo the V-recovery structure
An H1 close above the 0.56575 week high and the 0.5660 round number extends the breakout from the 0.56344 prior high
RSI(14) rolling over from overbought while price holds near the week high would mark slowing momentum
Higher low at 0.5591, breakout above 0.5634 to a 0.5658 week high.
Wednesday's hot US CPI print drove a sharp NY-session drop to the 0.5565 week low. Since then, falling US yields and hawkish RBNZ remarks have produced a V-shaped recovery: a higher low at 0.5591 into Thursday's NY open after US PPI, then a Friday Asia session breakout through the 0.5630–0.5634 prior high zone to a 0.5658 week high. Price sits about 20 pips above EMA(20) near 0.5628, with RSI(14) near 71 after peaking around 77 and no bearish divergence yet against Thursday's high.
Support: 0.56344, 0.55908, 0.55652
Resistance: 0.56575, 0.5700
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the 0.5634 prior high would mark the breakout as a false break and bring EMA(20) near 0.5628 into play
Break of the higher-low trendline (near 0.5630 now) exposes the 38.2% retracement of the post-CPI rally near 0.5622
Failure to hold the 0.5591 higher low unwinds the post-CPI uptrend; loss of the 0.5565 week low reopens the downtrend
Close above the 0.5658 week high opens the 0.5700 round number
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC today; a rebound in US yields could test the rally
Higher lows since the CPI low; Thursday's high broken in Asia.
The NY-session flush after Wednesday's hot US CPI set the week low at 0.5565. Thursday's Asia session then reversed it as US yields fell and RBNZ's Conway sounded hawkish. The dip on the PPI beat during NY hours held a higher low at 0.5591, and price has respected the higher-lows trendline since. Today's Asia session cleared the 0.5634 prior high and printed a new week high at 0.5658, with price well above EMA(20) and RSI(14) overbought near 80 after a near-vertical three-bar push.
Support: 0.56344, 0.5627, 0.55908
Resistance: 0.56575, 0.5700
What it said to watch
Holding 0.5634 prior high on any pullback keeps the breakout and retest structure intact
Hourly close back below the ema20 near 0.5627 and the 38.2% rally fib at 0.5622 would mark the breakout as stalling
Loss of the 0.5591 higher low and the higher-lows trendline breaks the post-CPI recovery sequence
Close above the 0.5658 week high exposes the 0.5700 round number
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC and moves in US yields could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Wednesday's week low; Thursday's high taken out.
Since Wednesday's hot US CPI print sent the pair to a 0.5565 week low, NZD/USD has printed a higher low at 0.5591 on Thursday's PPI spike. During Friday's Asia session it broke Thursday's 0.5634 prior high and extended to a 0.5656 week high around the Warsh speech window, with falling US yields doing the lifting. RSI(14) near 80 is overbought, and price sits roughly 30 pips above EMA(20) near 0.5622, which lines up with the 38.2% fib retrace of the week-low-to-high impulse.
Support: 0.5634, 0.5622, 0.5591
Resistance: 0.5656, 0.5700
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the 0.5634 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
Sustained trade above the 0.5656 week high exposes the 0.5700 psych level
Loss of the 0.5591 higher low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low sequence
Warsh remarks and the US yield reaction, then US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
03:03 UTC
Uptrend, extended into new window high · RSI 70 · price 0.56391
The NY-session drop on Wednesday's hot US CPI printed the week's CPI low at 0.5565. Since then each dip has held higher, including the ppi low at 0.5591 on Thursday, as falling US yields and Conway's hawkish RBNZ remarks lifted NZD. Today's Asia session has pushed through Thursday's 0.5634 prior high to a session high at 0.5640, with price well clear of the ema20 near 0.5620 and RSI(14) pressing 70.
Support: 0.56344, 0.5620, 0.55908
Resistance: 0.5640, 0.5650
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the 0.5634 prior high would mark the breakout as a false break
Fed Chair Warsh at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read if he validates further hikes
Session high at 0.5640 and the 0.5650 round number sit as the first areas where the extension gets tested
Pullback holding the ema20 and the higher-lows line keeps the post-CPI-low structure intact; a break of the 0.5591 ppi low would undo it
02:04 UTC
Rebound from week low, pressing range top · RSI 66 · price 0.56285
Higher lows since Wednesday under a flat 0.5630–0.5634 cap.
Wednesday's NY-session CPI selloff to the 0.5565 week low has been fully retraced as falling US yields outweighed hot US data. The rebound has printed higher lows, with Thursday's NY-session PPI dip holding at 0.5591, almost exactly the 61.8% fib of the rebound, before the Asia session lifted price back above EMA(20) at 0.5616. Price is now retesting the 0.5634 week high with RSI(14) near 66. That marks a third test of the 0.5630–0.5634 range top since Wednesday.
Support: 0.5616, 0.5591, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5634, 0.5650
What it said to watch
Warsh speech at 03:30 UTC could materially shift this read through US yields
H1 close above the 0.5634 week high breaks the range top and opens the path to the 0.5650 round number
Rejection at 0.5634 followed by a close back below EMA(20) at 0.5616 would leave three failed tests at the range top
Loss of the 0.5591 PPI low breaks the higher-low sequence and reopens the 0.5565 week low
Higher lows from 0.5565, capped at the 0.5630–0.5634 highs.
Wednesday's hot US CPI print in NY hours drove the pair below Monday's 0.5580 low to a 0.5565 week low, but the move proved a false break as falling US yields and RBNZ hike talk lifted it to the 0.5634 week high in Thursday's Asia session. Since then the pair has printed higher lows. Thursday's PPI low at 0.5591 held at the 61.8% retracement of that rebound, and the 0.5601 dip later in NY held as well. Price is back above EMA(20) near 0.5615 and EMA(50), grinding through Friday's Asia session toward the Wednesday high at 0.5630 with RSI(14) near 63.
Support: 0.56148, 0.55908, 0.55652
Resistance: 0.56295, 0.56344
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC and could materially shift this read through US yields
H1 close above the 0.5634 week high extends the higher-lows sequence to a new weekly high
Rejection between the 0.5630 Wednesday high and the 0.5634 week high would leave a double-top shape at the week high
Break of the higher-lows trendline and EMA(20) near 0.5615 puts the 0.5591 PPI low back in play, then the 0.5565 week low
0.5565–0.5634 weekly range with higher lows off the CPI low.
Wednesday's hot US CPI print drove the NY-session drop below Tuesday's 0.5580 low to the 0.5565 week low. The break was reclaimed within hours, and Thursday's Asia rally on falling yields and hawkish RBNZ talk printed the 0.5634 week high. Thursday's NY dip on the PPI beat found demand at the 0.5591 ppi low, which sits near the 61.8% fib of the CPI-low-to-week-high impulse. Price has since built higher lows back above EMA(20) at 0.5614 and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 58 mid-cycle. Supply is capping at the 0.5624 session high, below the week high.
Support: 0.5614, 0.5591, 0.5565
Resistance: 0.5624, 0.5634
What it said to watch
Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 03:30 UTC (06:30 broker); a hawkish or dovish read on near-term tightening could materially shift this read via US yields
An H1 close above the 0.5634 week high breaks the range top
The 0.5624 session high is the first cap and an area to watch for rejection or break
Repeated H1 closes back below the 0.5614 EMA(20) would return price to mid-range
Failure to hold the 0.5591 ppi low breaks the higher-lows trendline and reopens the 0.5565 week low
US Industrial Production at 13:15 UTC is secondary risk during the NY session