19:06 UTC
Range regime, lower highs pressing the base · RSI 39 · price 0.56134
Descending highs into flat range base near 0.5565-0.5576.
NZDUSD has been range-bound since mid-2025, between the 0.5576 2025 low and the 0.6120 June 2025 high. Successive lower highs at 0.6093 (Jan), 0.5994 (May) and 0.5988 (Aug) have pushed price back onto the range base. A two-month slide from the August high broke the June low at 0.5626 and printed a fresh 2026 low at 0.5565, leaving price below the W1 EMA(50) near 0.5800. Three straight weekly closes near 0.5613 show demand absorbing just above the 2025 low as dovish Fed-speak softens USD, with RSI near 39 and short of oversold.
Support: 0.5565, 0.5576, 0.5500
Resistance: 0.5626, 0.5800, 0.5990
What it said to watch
- Weekly close below the 0.5565 2026 low confirms a break of the range base, leaving 0.5500 psych as the next reference
- Recovery and hold back above the june low at 0.5626 would mark the probe under the 2025 low as a false break
- Weekly close above the ema50 near 0.5800 (38.2-50% zone of the jan-oct fib) is needed before the lower highs at 0.5990 come back into play
- NZ Q3 CPI on Wed 21 Oct (f/c 0.8% QoQ) and the late-October RBNZ decision (~80% hike priced) could materially shift this read