NZD/USD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Sunday, 18 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the NZD/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:04 UTC
Uptrend from Wednesday low, pausing below week high · RSI 42 · price 0.56507
V-rebound with higher lows; lower highs since Friday's 0.5675 peak.
Hot US CPI broke NZDUSD to 0.5565 on Wednesday. Fading Fed hike odds then drove a V-shaped rebound: Thursday's PPI dip held a higher low at the 0.5591 thu low, and Friday's London session pushed to a 0.5675 week high. Since then price has printed lower highs and slipped below ema20 into Friday's NY session, holding the 0.5641 fri low, and the Monday Asia open after soft NZ trade data is capped at the 0.5662 mon high, with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 0.5641, 0.5600, 0.5591
Resistance: 0.5655, 0.5662, 0.5675
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5641 fri low and the higher-lows trendline exposes the 38.2% fib near 0.5633, then the 0.5600 round number
Reclaim of the ema20 and 0.5662 mon high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 0.5675 week high
Hormuz headlines through the Monday open and US housing data Tue 12:15 UTC could shift USD tone
NZ Q3 CPI Tue 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q); a miss puts the 0.5591 thu low back in focus
Higher lows since Wednesday's low, shallow pullback holding.
NZDUSD reversed from Wednesday's post-US CPI low near 0.5565. It then built higher lows at 0.5591 in Thursday's NY session and at the 0.5641 friday low, and set a week high at 0.5675 during Friday's London session as softer US yields outweighed the hot US data. The Friday NY pullback retraced only about a third of the Wednesday-Friday rally. Sunday's open is holding just above EMA(20) near 0.5650, with RSI(14) back at neutral ~50 and the 0.5669 NY high capping the bounce.
Support: 0.5650, 0.5641, 0.5634
Resistance: 0.5669, 0.5675, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 0.5641 friday low breaks the higher-lows sequence and exposes the 0.5634 thu high, which aligns with the 38.2% retracement of the Wed-Fri rally
Clearance of the 0.5669 NY high and the 0.5675 week high reopens the uptrend toward the 0.5700 round number
Repeated H1 closes below EMA(20) at 0.5650 would shift the read from consolidation to a deeper pullback
NZ Q3 CPI on Oct 21 at 21:45 UTC (f/c 0.8% q/q) could materially shift this read
US housing starts and permits on Tue at 12:30 UTC are a US-yield risk for the NY session
Higher lows from Wednesday's CPI low; NY lower high Friday, holding ema20.
NZDUSD bounced in a V shape from Wednesday's post-CPI low at 0.5565. It set a higher low near 0.5591 into Thursday's US data, then Friday's Asia and London sessions broke the 0.5634 thu high and ran to a 0.5675 week high as softer US yields weighed on the dollar. NY hours faded the move from a lower high at 0.5669 to the 0.5641 fri low, and price now sits on the ema20 (~0.5649) with RSI(14) back in the high 50s.
Support: 0.5649, 0.56407, 0.56344
Resistance: 0.56693, 0.5675, 0.5700
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.5641 fri low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.5634 thu high, which sits next to the 38.2% recovery fib
H1 close above the 0.5675 week high opens the path toward the 0.5700 round number; another stall at the 0.5669 lower high points to range-building below the high
A break of the rising lows trendline from 0.5565 would undercut the recovery structure
NZ trade balance at 21:45 UTC today and NZ Q3 CPI (f/c 0.8% q/q) on Oct 21 could materially shift this read