19:06 UTC
Range regime, drifting into lower half · RSI 43 · price 0.57097
Lower weekly highs inside a 14-month range.
Range-bound between roughly the 0.5576 range low and 0.6092 for more than a year, and the latest weekly close at 0.57097 leaves price at the bottom edge of that band after four straight lower weekly highs from the 0.5988 prior high. The Fed's hike to 4.00% and the lifted dots have kept the dollar bid, and the New Zealand GDP beat produced only a shallow bounce that faded well below the w1 ema50 near 0.5840. Price is now just under the 61.8% retracement (~0.5728) of the 2025 advance, so the macro read is a flat-EMA range losing its upper half rather than a developing trend.
Support: 0.5700, 0.5626, 0.5576
Resistance: 0.5840, 0.5988
What it said to watch
- The 0.5700 round number is the immediate pivot; failure to hold it on a weekly close leaves the 0.5626 prior low as the next reference
- A weekly close below 0.5626 would confirm a lower low and break the rising lows base off 0.5486
- Reclaiming the 0.5840 w1 ema50 is what would negate the drift toward the range low
- Further Fed repricing toward an October hike, plus US flash PMIs, is the dominant external driver for the coming weeks