12:37 UTC
Range-bound, lower highs, below EMA50 · RSI 44 · price 0.56918
0.5580–0.6000 range since Q3 2025 with each rally top lower.
NZDUSD has been range-bound between the Nov low at 0.5576 and the 0.5990 range top since Q3 2025. Rallies have printed lower highs from the 2025 high at 0.6120, and the August rejection near 0.5990 has run four straight weeks lower as Fed-RBNZ rate divergence keeps the kiwi on the defensive. Price now trades below a flattening EMA(50) near 0.5820, which also sits close to the 38.2% of the 2025 decline fib. It is pressing the lower half of the range just above the June low at 0.5626.
Support: 0.5626, 0.5576, 0.5486
Resistance: 0.5820, 0.5990, 0.6120
What it said to watch
- Weekly close below the June low at 0.5626 exposes the Nov low at 0.5576, with the 2025 low at 0.5486 beneath
- Reclaim of the EMA(50) near 0.5820 and the 38.2% of the 2025 decline fib would return price to the range midpoint
- A weekly close above the lower highs line and the 0.5990 range top breaks the compression; the 2025 high at 0.6120 sits above
- Trump-Xi talks this week and the RBNZ October decision could materially shift this read