21:07 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stretched · RSI 28 · price 0.57161
Lower highs and lower lows since the 0.5988 mid-September peak.
The mid-July advance off 0.5626 topped at 0.5988 in mid-September and has been unwound in one clean impulse: six-to-seven consecutive down sessions took the pair through the EMA50 near 0.5855 and through the 61.8% retracement of that swing, printing a two-month low at 0.5703. The driver was the hawkish Fed hike to 4.00% and a steeper dot path; the better-than-forecast Q2 NZ GDP produced only a one-day bounce that was fully sold, leaving the weekly cadence firmly lower. RSI(14) near 28 is genuinely stretched at this timeframe, and price is now sitting on the 0.5700 psych level with the July low at 0.5626 the next structural reference beneath.
Support: 0.5703, 0.5700, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5781, 0.5819, 0.5855
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 0.5700 psych level confirms continuation and exposes 0.5671 then the july low at 0.5626
- Reclaiming the 0.5819 weekly high would break the chain of lower highs that began in mid-September
- A weekly close back above the ema50 at 0.5855 would invalidate the downtrend read
- US flash PMIs on Wed are the week's only high-impact US print and can materially shift this read via rate pricing