21:06 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stretched · RSI 31 · price 0.57329
Lower highs and lower lows since the 21 Aug peak at 0.5988.
NZDUSD has been in a clean daily downtrend since the 0.5988 peak on 21 Aug, shedding roughly 260 pips in four weeks and trading below both EMA20 and a rolling-over EMA50. The Fed's hawkish hike and Warsh's inflation comments powered the USD leg lower; the NZ Q2 GDP beat produced a bounce toward the 0.5781 swing high that was fully retraced within two sessions. Last week's 0.5703 swing low sits almost exactly on the 78.6% retracement of the June-August advance, and RSI(14) near 30 is the most stretched reading of this window.
Support: 0.5703, 0.5671, 0.5626
Resistance: 0.5781, 0.5810, 0.5835
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 0.5703 swing low confirms trend continuation and exposes the 0.5671 prior low
- A close back above the 0.5781 swing high would break the chain of lower highs; 0.5810 ema20 caps the move above that
- Repeated failure to close under 0.5703 on daily basis would flag downside exhaustion
- US S&P Global PMIs on Wed are the week's only top-tier data and can reset the USD leg of this read